Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. The market is mainly oscillating, with short - term attention on the pressure level of 1754 yuan/ton and medium - term attention on the oscillation range of 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton. The upcoming Indian NFL company's 200 - million - ton urea import tender will affect the domestic market sentiment. The demand of compound fertilizer factories has resilience, which can support the downstream demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market opened higher and moved higher today, showing a strong oscillation. The trading activity in the recent market is low. The price in Shandong region rebounded today after a price cut yesterday to attract orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei urea factories ranges from 1660 to 1690 yuan/ton [1][5]. - In terms of fundamentals, due to summer equipment overhauls and environmental protection restrictions caused by the military parade in early September, the output in August decreased month - on - month. However, new production capacity will be gradually put into operation, and factories will resume production after the military parade, so the pattern of loose supply has not changed. On the demand side, affected by the September military parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories has declined for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the subsequent increase in operating load will be limited. Currently, the factory's finished product inventory is being depleted, and the finished fertilizer is being transferred to the end - users. The demand for compound fertilizer in Shandong has reached the historical high for the same period, and the possibility of subsequent concentrated fertilizer stockpiling is low. With the finished product inventory higher than the same period last year, the incremental demand for raw materials may be limited. It is expected that the operating load will increase next week [1]. - The inventory continued to accumulate, increasing by 6.19 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.05%. As it is about to enter the peak season for autumn fertilizers, the demand of compound fertilizer factories has resilience, which can support the downstream demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1742 yuan/ton, moved higher, and showed a strong oscillation, finally closing at 1746 yuan/ton, with a yin - yang line and a change rate of +0.52%. The trading volume was 219382 lots (-892 lots). Among the top 20 major positions in the main contract, the long positions decreased by 2105 lots, and the short positions increased by 915 lots. For example, Galaxy Futures had a net long position of +781 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of -642 lots; CITIC Futures had a net short position of +3467 lots, and Huatai Futures had a net short position of +1176 lots [2]. - Spot: The recent market trading activity is low. The price in Shandong region rebounded today after a price cut yesterday to attract orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei urea factories ranges from 1660 to 1690 yuan/ton [1][5]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the January contract was -26 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton) [8]. - Supply data: According to Feiyitong data, on September 2, 2025, the daily national urea output was 185,600 tons, the same as yesterday, and the operating rate was 78.42% [9]. - Warehouse receipts: On September 2, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7205, the same as the previous trading day [3].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; for the spread between contracts, conduct short - term volatility trading for the UR01 - 05 positive spread during the export window period, and conduct reverse spread trading for UR01 - 05 at high levels after the export window period; no strategy for cross - variety [3] Core View - Recently, manufacturers have lowered prices to attract orders. After the price dropped to the previous low, the transaction improved. Some regions have started the autumn agricultural fertilization. Industrial demand is weak due to the impact of the military parade on the operation of compound fertilizers, board factories, etc. Urea production remains high, but there will be more maintenance this week, so production may decline slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose with the release of new production capacity. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost support is average. The export window period from August to September continues, and the port inventory is increasing rapidly. India's NFL has issued a urea import tender, and the export dynamics need to be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On September 1, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,743 yuan/ton (-3). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,720 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-17), in Henan was - 23 yuan/ton (+3), and in Jiangsu was - 33 yuan/ton (-17) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of September 1, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.70% (0.08%). Urea production remains high, but with more maintenance this week, production may decline slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose with the release of new production capacity [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of September 1, 2025, the urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (-20). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 39.22% (-1.62%), and that of melamine was 58.50% (+11.90%) [1] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of September 1, 2025, the export profit was 1,172 yuan/ton (-99). The export window period from August to September continues, and the port inventory is increasing rapidly. India's NFL has issued a urea import tender [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 1, 2025, the urea enterprise's advance order days were 6.06 days (0.00). Industrial demand is weak due to the impact of the military parade on the operation of compound fertilizers, board factories, etc. Some regions have started the autumn agricultural fertilization [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 594,000 tons (+93,000 tons). The port inventory is increasing rapidly [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with high daily production, high inventory, and limited domestic demand. However, international urea prices are strong, and export profits are still high, but export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The main influencing factors include the strength of international prices and the marginal changes in domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has recently oscillated and declined. Previously, the market was affected by rumors of the liberalization of urea exports, causing the futures price to rise, but then market sentiment subsided. Currently, daily production and the operating rate are still at relatively high levels, and inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are at a medium level, and agricultural demand is limited. The overall supply of urea in China still significantly exceeds demand, export profits are still strong, and export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1790 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 47, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.6%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.402 million tons (-35,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall supply in China still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will oscillate today [4]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1790 (-20), Shandong's spot price is 1790 (-20), Henan's spot price is 1810 (-10), and FOB China is 3031 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1743 (-3), the basis is 47 (-17), the price of the UR05 contract is 1784 (-7), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1670 (-9) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 7205 (+732), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.402 million tons (-35,000 tons), the UR manufacturer's inventory is 859,000 tons (-37,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 543,000 tons (+2,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with short - term weak adjustments. After entering September, supported by autumn fertilizers, and approaching the off - season storage and Indian tenders, there may be opportunities for a rebound [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, the market opened high and closed low, with a decline in the afternoon. The spot quotation was stable with an upward adjustment, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,670 to 1,690 yuan/ton, with the low - end price up 10 - 20 yuan/ton from yesterday [1] - On the supply side, due to summer maintenance and military parade - related production restrictions, some upstream factories have shut down for maintenance, and the daily production has been adjusted down to about 180,000 tons. However, these are normal planned maintenance, and the impact on the market is limited under high - level production capacity [1] - On the demand side, affected by environmental protection and production restrictions during the military parade, downstream production has been restricted. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has reached a historical high for the same period and has continued to decline for two weeks, with limited room for further increase. The finished product inventory has been at a five - year high in the past two months and has started to decline this week, and autumn fertilizers are gradually being promoted [1] - The inventory has continued to accumulate, increasing by 61,900 tons from last week, a 6.05% increase. Some regions have export orders or maintenance plans, leading to inventory reduction. In the short term, urea is in a weak adjustment, and both upstream and downstream will face maintenance and production cuts next week [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,754 yuan/ton, then opened high and closed low, with a decline in the afternoon, and finally closed at 1,746 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4%. The trading volume was 219,096 lots, a decrease of 2,504 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 1,131 lots, and short positions decreased by 651 lots [2] - In the spot market, the atmosphere in the urea spot market improved today, with more low - price purchases. The spot quotation was stable with an upward adjustment, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,670 to 1,690 yuan/ton, with the low - end price up 10 - 20 yuan/ton from yesterday [1][7] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of basis, today's mainstream spot market quotation increased, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [10] - According to Feiyitong data, on August 29, 2025, the national daily urea production was 184,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 78.39% [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a short - spread arbitrage on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, manufacturers have lowered prices to attract orders, but downstream follow - up is cautious. Spot trading has improved. It is the off - season for agricultural demand. In the industrial demand, the compound fertilizer industry has entered the autumn fertilizer production season, but due to the military parade, the operating rate has decreased, and the operating rate of board factories has also declined. Industrial demand is weak, and downstream still resists high - priced goods. Urea production is at a high level, and upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Some companies have started maintenance, and production may decline slightly. However, with the release of new production capacity, the future urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. August is the export window period, urea exports are ongoing, the port collection rhythm is accelerating, and the port inventory accumulation speed is increasing. India's NFL has issued a urea import tender. This tender requires 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The Indian tender and demand will boost the international urea market. Continued attention should be paid to changes in export dynamics [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On August 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1753 yuan/ton (+16); the ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1720 yuan/ton (0); the small - sized urea price in Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton (+10); the small - sized urea price in Jiangsu was 1720 yuan/ton (+10); the price of small - lump anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The Shandong basis was - 43 yuan/ton (- 6); the Henan basis was - 33 yuan/ton (- 6); the Jiangsu basis was - 33 yuan/ton (- 6) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of August 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.70% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons). Some companies like Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Lu'an have started maintenance, and production may decline slightly. However, with the release of new production capacity, future urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose [1][2] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 28, 2025, the urea production profit was 180 yuan/ton (+10). The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of August 28, 2025, the urea export profit was 1294 yuan/ton (+2). August is the export window period, urea exports are ongoing, the port collection rhythm is accelerating, and the port inventory accumulation speed is increasing. India's NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.22% (- 1.62%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 58.50% (+11.90%); the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.06 days (+0.00). The compound fertilizer industry has entered the autumn fertilizer production season, but due to the military parade, the operating rate has decreased, and the operating rate of board factories has also declined. Industrial demand is weak [1][2] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 594,000 tons (+93,000 tons). Urea production is at a high level, and upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend a strategy of buying on dips for urea in the future, suggesting investors focus on the opportunity to buy the 01 contract on dips [1] - Currently, the urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high [1] - There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: supply - side has the expectation of old - device renovation (old devices over 20 years account for about 20%, and the current comprehensive urea operating rate is over 80% with limited idle capacity), and demand - side has the expectation of improved exports, especially optimistic about urea exports from September to October [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price - On August 28, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 in Shandong were 1753 yuan/ton, 1789 yuan/ton, and 1702 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 16 yuan/ton (0.92%), 10 yuan/ton (0.56%), and - 5 yuan/ton (- 0.29%) compared to August 27 [1] Domestic Spot Price - On August 28, the domestic spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1620 yuan/ton, 1720 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, and 1720 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 10 yuan/ton (0.62%), 10 yuan/ton (0.58%), 0 yuan/ton (0.00%), 0 yuan/ton (0.00%), and 10 yuan/ton (0.58%) compared to August 27 [1] Basis and Spread - On August 28, the Shandong spot - UR basis was - 79 yuan/ton, unchanged from August 27; the 01 - 05 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, with a change of 6 yuan/ton compared to August 27 [1] Upstream Cost - On August 28, the anthracite prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong were 1000 yuan/ton, 900 yuan/ton, and unchanged compared to August 27 [1] Downstream Price - On August 28, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan were 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from August 27; the melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were 5225 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from August 27 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1737 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1762 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1737 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1753 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1753 yuan/ton, and the position was 221,600 lots [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures. It suggests that the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: on the supply - side, there is an expectation of old equipment renovation, with about 20% of urea equipment over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate above 80%, leaving little idle capacity; on the demand - side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October, considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations. Therefore, it is advisable to focus on the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Urea Price and Cost Data - **Futures Prices**: UR01 in Shanxi closed at 1737 yuan/ton with no change; UR05 was at 1779 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan (0.11%); UR09 was at 1707 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.23%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1700 yuan/ton, 1710 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 79 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was - 42 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained at 5225 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Important Information The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1740 yuan/ton, the highest was 1763 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1733 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1737 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1745 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 223,981 lots [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures, especially focusing on the 01 contract, based on the low valuation of urea and the expected upward drivers in the second half of the year [1].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the impact of exports on sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers have lowered prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and trading has improved. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is weak. The production of urea remains at a high level, and upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Although production may decline slightly next week due to planned maintenance, future supply - demand remains loose with the release of new production capacity. Coal - based urea profits are acceptable, and cost support is average. The export of urea continues in August, and port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market, and export dynamics need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 26, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1737 yuan/ton (- 8). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1710 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1710 yuan/ton (- 10). The basis in Shandong was - 37 yuan/ton (- 2), in Henan was - 27 yuan/ton (+ 8), and in Jiangsu was - 27 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 26, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Planned maintenance at companies like Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an next week may lead to a slight decline in production, but new capacity will be released [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (- 10). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and cost support is average [1][2] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - The export profit was 1288 yuan/ton (+ 18). The Indian NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rates and Orders - As of August 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.84% (- 2.64%), and that of melamine was 46.60% (- 3.22%). The number of advance order days for urea enterprises was 6.06 days (- 0.23). Industrial demand is weak [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 26, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.39 million tons (+ 6.65), and the port sample inventory was 50.10 million tons (+ 3.70). Upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China. The futures price, which previously rose due to rumors of increased export expectations, has fallen as actual export demand has not improved significantly. The market is expected to remain volatile today, influenced by factors such as high domestic production and inventory, weak domestic demand, and strong international prices, with the export policy not being more relaxed than expected [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been oscillating downward recently. The previous rise in futures prices due to rumors of improved China - India relations and increased export expectations did not materialize in actual export demand, leading to a decline in market sentiment. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level overall. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly. Although export profits have declined, they remain strong, and the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 73, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 143.7 million tons (-2.0), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, but the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. With the domestic supply still significantly exceeding demand, the UR is expected to oscillate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: International prices are strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Operating rates and daily production are at high levels, and domestic demand is weak [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand are the main influencing factors [5]. Market Data - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 1737 (-8), the price of the 05 contract is 1777 (-12), and the price of the 09 contract is 1703 (-11). The basis of the UR01 contract is 73 (up 8) [6]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 143.7 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 89.6 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 54.1 million tons, all unchanged [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown varying degrees of change. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

【冠通研究】 弱势整理 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 26 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内震荡承压。期现市场均呈现弱势状态，上游工厂降价 吸单后，市场成交氛围未见明显好转，山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素 出厂价格范围在 1640-1690 元/吨。基本面来看暂无过分波动，日产维持 19 万 吨左右，本周河南心连心及山西潞安有检修计划，预计本周产量环比上周减 少。需求端，工业需求有韧性，复合肥工厂开工已至历史同期高位，后续攀升 高度有限，近期受阅兵环保限产的影响，复合肥工厂出现限产减产情况，开工 负荷略有下调。成品库存近两个月位于五年同期高位水平，目前暂未到秋季肥 高需求阶段，无集中备肥压力；其他工业需求也多受环保限产问题而减产停 车。尿素库存表现为累库，且目前位于近五年高位，大量库存压制行情上涨空 间，市场可流通货源多。整体来说，目前尿素处于弱势整理阶段，目前市场暂 无驱动，前期出口利多已消化，后续印标价格需关注是否超市场预期，短期反 弹沽空，后续秋季备肥及淡储支撑市场，且东北备肥也或将逐渐开始，下方有 支撑，空间相对有限。 【期现行情】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格， ...