1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Urea new order transactions have slowed down, and spot prices have loosened. In the fourth - quarter, gas - based plant maintenance starts in December, while coal - based plant maintenance has gradually recovered. All new production capacities in 2025 have been put into operation, so the urea supply remains stable. Currently, off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The operating rates of compound fertilizers in the Northeast and Hubei regions continue to rise, and production scheduling in Shandong has increased, leading to an overall increase in the operating rate. Melamine plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded with rigid demand for procurement. As off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export procurement activities progress, urea enterprises' shipments have improved. Factory inventories have decreased, while port inventories have slightly increased. However, the subsequent procurement pace may slow down. Currently, new order procurement has slightly slowed down. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement pace, the national off - season storage pace, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Urea Basis Structure - On December 8, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,646 yuan/ton (-27). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,690 yuan/ton (-30), and in Jiangsu it was 1,690 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was 44 yuan/ton (-3), in Henan was 44 yuan/ton (+7), and in Jiangsu was 44 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. II. Urea Output - As of December 8, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.82% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 billion tons (-73.4 million), and the port sample inventory was 0.105 billion tons (+5 million) [1]. III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 8, 2025, the urea production profit was 160 yuan/ton (-30), and the export profit was 859 yuan/ton (-52). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.53% (+3.47%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+0.86%) [1]. IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - No specific data summary other than the export profit of 859 yuan/ton (-52) on December 8, 2025, is provided. V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 8, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.53% (+3.47%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+0.86%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.35 days (+0.70) [1]. VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 8, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 billion tons (-73.4 million), and the port sample inventory was 0.105 billion tons (+5 million) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate and correct, and close the cash - and - carry arbitrage positions opportunistically. - Inter - delivery: Wait and see. - Inter - commodity: None [3].

| | 明此就禁早评20251209:短期注意回调风险,仍以逢低做多为主 变化值 | | | | 変化值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 12月8日 12月5日 单位 | | | | | | | UR01 元/吨 | 1646.00 | 1673.00 | (绝对值) -27.00 | (相对值) -1.61% | | 房素期货价格 | UR05 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1736.00 | -26.00 | -1.50% | | (收盘价) | | | | | | | | UR09 元/吨 | 1724.00 | 1752.00 | -28.00 | -1.60% | | | 山东 元/吨 | 1690.00 | 1720.00 | -30.00 | -1.74% | | 期现价格 | 山西 元/吨 | 1560.00 | 1560.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 元/吨 1690.00 | | 1710.00 | -20.00 | -1.17% | | (小顆粒) | 元/吨 河北 | 1730.00 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of urea are relatively strong, and there is support for the decline in the futures price. Although the urea futures price dropped on Monday, it is difficult for it to fall significantly under the support of gas restrictions, exports, and winter storage. During the roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices rose steadily during the week. Although high - price order transactions were limited, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and a strong willingness to hold prices. Since the weekend, prices have remained stable, and new order transactions are limited [3]. 2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price showed different trends each day. As of December 8, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,646 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 1. The weekly trading volume was 1,163.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86 million tons; the open interest was 712.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13 million tons. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 17 yuan/ton. On December 8, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,526, a week - on - week increase of 3,589 [5][8]. 3. Urea Supply - side - Last week, urea weekly output decreased. From November 27 to December 3, the weekly output was 1.3851 billion tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%. Coal - based weekly output decreased slightly, and gas - based weekly output decreased by 9.26%. In the next cycle, the output is still expected to decrease mainly. On December 8, the national daily output of urea was 202,800 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57%. The price of动力煤 (steam coal) decreased, and the price of liquefied natural gas, synthetic ammonia, and methanol also declined [12][13][15]. 4. Urea Demand - side - As of December 5, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased. The compound fertilizer factory's new orders were few, and it mainly executed previous orders. The operating load continued to increase, and the finished - product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate was close to the historical high level, and the room for further increase in operation was limited. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine increased, but there was a risk of weak growth in the future. Urea inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to rise [17][19]. 5. International Market - International urea prices declined across the board this week. After the end of the Indian tender, the international urea market was mainly stable. The next round of tender is expected to start in January next year, and the next procurement cycle in the US is expected to be from January to February 2026. As of December 5, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in various regions decreased week - on - week [21][23].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 08 日 尿素：震荡回落 国 泰 君 | 杨鈜汉 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,673 | 1,688 | -15 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,682 | 1,694 | -12 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 110,200 | 155,992 | -45792 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 110,200 | 155,992 | -45792 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 200,353 | 209, ...

| | | 明此就禁早评20251208:短期注意回调风险,仍以逢低做多为主 | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 12月5日 12月4日 单位 | | | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 房素期货价格 | UR01 元/吨 | 1673.00 | 1688.00 | -15.00 | -0.89% | | | | UR05 元/吨 | 1736.00 | 1745.00 | -9.00 | -0.52% | | (收盘价) | | UR09 元/吨 | 1752.00 | 1763.00 | -11.00 | -0.62% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1710.00 | 10.00 | 0.58% | | | | 山西 元/吨 | 1560.00 | 1570.00 | -10.00 | -0.64% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1710.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | (小顆粒 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is within the range of fundamentals and policies. In the short term, its downside is strongly supported, but there is also pressure on the upside. The 01 contract is expected to continue its oscillating trend [3]. - The short - term spot price of urea is significantly supported, and the sentiment in the industry has improved. The short - term domestic urea market is stable with a slight upward trend [3]. - The medium - term trend of urea is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [21]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - In the context of the fourth batch of export quotas driving speculation, trading was strong in the first half of the week and weakened in the second half. It is expected that upstream enterprises will still be in a stage of slight destocking next week [3]. - Supported by policy supply guarantees and the repair of production profits, the daily output of urea is expected to remain high, and high supply exerts significant pressure on prices. However, timely and continuous adjustments to export policies relieve pressure on the fundamentals, weakening the downward driving force of prices [3]. - Due to the continuous restocking in Northeast China for two weeks, the willingness of compound fertilizer factories and traders to chase high prices is gradually weakening. But the continuous destocking of explicit urea inventories provides support for prices [3]. - Although new delivery warehouses have been added for urea, the locations of the cheapest deliverable goods are still Henan and Shandong. Considering the disappearance of export expectations for the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 month spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation. Since the 01 contract still has expectations for autumn fertilizers, there is still a premium for the urea 01 contract [6]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Urea is oscillating weakly. The price range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to lay out short positions at prices above 1750 yuan/ton and lay out reverse arbitrage when the 1 - 5 month spread is above - 10 [13]. - **Base - difference, Month - spread and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Base - difference Strategy**: The 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend. The 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong contracts with expectations of peak - season demand [14]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: The upper pressure on the 01 contract is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the static support below is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, with dynamic fluctuations. From the perspective of the terminal value of the 01 contract, it is recommended to lay out short positions at high prices; conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread at high prices [14]. - **Hedge Arbitrage Strategy**: None [15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - On November 6, India announced a new round of urea import tenders for 250 tons, with 125 tons each for the east and west coasts, and the shipping date is January 15, 2026 [16]. - The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry. The national off - season reserve is concentrated from December to March, and the relatively low price level may also attract spontaneous reserves [16]. - **Negative Information**: As of this week, the daily output of domestic urea is 20.81 tons. Next week, the maintenance devices of Shandong Union and Jiangsu Linggu will gradually resume, and some gas - based urea plants in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other places have concentrated maintenance expectations. After a narrow upward fluctuation, the domestic daily output of urea is expected to decline significantly. If the maintenance expectations are fulfilled, the domestic daily output of urea is likely to drop to around 20 tons [17]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - The output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 131.53 tons, an increase of 3.74 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.93%. It is expected that the weekly output of Chinese urea next week will be around 134 tons, continuing to increase from this period [19]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Over the weekend, the domestic urea market continued to rise firmly, with an increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The prices of small and medium - sized particles in the mainstream regions are in the range of 1510 - 1630 yuan/ton. Driven by the fourth batch of urea export quotas and the news of a new round of Indian tenders, the sentiment in the market is obviously bullish, and upstream urea factories continue to raise prices, while downstream resistance is emerging. The short - term market will continue to be stable with a slight upward trend [20]. - The weak domestic demand is the current main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening of domestic demand. The demand for compound fertilizers and industrial use is relatively weak, and the driving force for prices is also limited. Therefore, the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [21]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Urea Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is predicted to be 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years [27]. - **Urea Hedging Strategy Table**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about falling urea prices, it is recommended to short urea futures to lock in profits, buy put options to prevent sharp price drops, and sell call options to reduce capital costs [27]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories, it is recommended to buy urea futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and buy put options to lock in the purchase price if the urea price falls [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The report provides seasonal data on the weekly fixed - bed production cost, natural - gas - based production cost, and water - coal - slurry gasification production profit of urea [29][31][33]. 4.2 Upstream Operating Rate Tracking - The report presents seasonal data on the daily output, weekly capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and natural - gas - based capacity utilization rate of urea [37][39]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on China's weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and total inventory (port + inland) of urea [41][43][45]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report provides seasonal data on the weekly capacity utilization rate, inventory, production cost, production profit, and market price of compound fertilizers, as well as the weekly output, capacity utilization rate, market price, and production profit of melamine, and the daily market price of synthetic ammonia in the Henan market [47][50][54][66]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on the average production and sales of urea and the production and sales of urea in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [69][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of urea this week is a fluctuating decline. The short - term driving force is neutral, with the intraday price approaching the upper limit of valuation during the week, and spot trading weakening, leading to a short - term weak correction. Near the delivery of the 01 contract, the increase in warehouse receipts is obvious, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate under pressure. The support mainly comes from continuous purchases in the Northeast. The fundamental driving force of urea is currently neutral, and the continuous reduction of explicit inventory supports the price. In the medium - term, the 01 contract has strong fundamental pressure at 1700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is expected to be between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing urea basis, monthly spreads, and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices, including data from 2018 - 2025, which can help analyze price trends and market relationships [5][9][15][19] 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea production capacity continues. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons, and in 2025, new production capacity is also being added. For example, Shaanxi Shanhua completed capacity replacement in January 2025, with a net increase of 400,000 tons [23]. 3.2.2 Production Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including routine maintenance and loss - based maintenance. For example, Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd. carried out routine maintenance from November 10 - 17, 2025 [25]. 3.2.3 Output - The production profit is around the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The charts show the daily output, capacity utilization rate, and output of coal - based and gas - based urea from 2018 - 2025 [26][27]. 3.2.4 Cost - Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. The report provides cost calculations for Shanxi's fixed - bed factories and shows the complete cost trends of urea's fluidized - bed, fixed - bed, and natural - gas production processes from 2018 - 2025 [29]. 3.2.5 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production processes from 2018 - 2025 [35][36]. 3.2.6 Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. The report provides monthly net import (export) data from 2018 - 2025 (E), showing that exports have increased significantly in 2025 [41]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strengthening. Different regions and crops have different fertilizer - using seasons. Also, the construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn [47][50]. 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers from 2019 - 2025 [54][55][56]. - **Melamine**: The report presents the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine from 2018 - 2025 [57][58][60]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The report provides data on panel export volume, real - estate completion area, and construction area from 2020 - 2025 [62][63]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,290,500 tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week. As of December 4, 2025 (week 49), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week [65][68]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil from 2018 - 2025, which can help analyze the international urea market [71][72][73]

【冠通期货研究报告】 弱势回调 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 5 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开低走，日内震荡下跌。尿素现货价格小幅上涨，待发支撑 下，报价依然坚挺。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1630-1700 元/吨，河南工厂报价偏低端，其他地方工厂成交价略有上移。日产 回落后，压力有缓解，但目前肥易通数据显示，依然在 19 万吨以上徘徊。后续 随着西南地区装置的不断停车，将继续降低产量。需求端继续走强，本期复合 肥工厂开工负荷提升 3.47%，冬储肥生产阶段，厂内成品库存开始累积增加， 终端备肥相对顺畅，工厂将继续提升开工负荷，支撑原料端价格。其他工业需 求同样稳中有增，尚且未拖累尿素需求。储备型需求及复合肥开工率增加带来 的需求增量，促使库存进一步去化，预计后续随着气头装置的停产限产，库存 将依然表现为流畅去化。综合来看，近期限气预期、宏观提振及出口传闻，冬 储需求均支撑尿素价格，盘面下方有支撑，临近移仓换月，谨慎多空，关注周 末收单情况。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1696 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，日内震荡下跌， 最终收于 1673 元/吨，收成一 ...

| | | | 加比尿素早评20251205:短期注意回调风险,仍以逢低做多为主 | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 单位 | 12月4日 | 12月3日 | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1688.00 | 1692.00 | -4.00 | -0.24% | | 尿素期货价格 | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1745.00 | 1748.00 | -3.00 | -0.17% | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1763.00 | 1768.00 | -5.00 | -0.28% | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1680.00 | 30.00 | 1.79% | | 期现价格 | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1570.00 | 1540.00 | 30.00 | 1.95% | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1690.00 | 20.00 | 1.18% | | (小顆粒) | ...

| | | | 加比尿素早评20251205:短期注意回调风险,仍以逢低做多为主 | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 单位 | 12月4日 | 12月3日 | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1688.00 | 1692.00 | -4.00 | -0.24% | | 尿素期货价格 | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1745.00 | 1748.00 | -3.00 | -0.17% | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1763.00 | 1768.00 | -5.00 | -0.28% | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1680.00 | 30.00 | 1.79% | | 期现价格 | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1570.00 | 1540.00 | 30.00 | 1.95% | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1690.00 | 20.00 | 1.18% | | (小顆粒) | ...