Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "medium-term volatile upward" rating for urea [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term urea price continues to rise due to the improved overall spot trading, the de - stocking fundamental data, and the background of neutral reality and strong expectations. The subsequent upward momentum depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, and the support level is expected to be around 1,700 - 1,720 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract is 1,814 yuan/ton (up 40 from the previous day), the settlement price is 1,796 yuan/ton (up 18), the trading volume is 206,733 lots, the open interest is 253,756 lots (up 23,507), the warehouse receipt quantity is 13,355 tons (unchanged), and the turnover is 742.445 million yuan (up 362.101 million). The Shandong regional basis is - 74 (down 40), the Fengxi - to - disk basis is - 194 (down 40), the Dongguang - to - disk basis is - 94 (down 40), and UR05 - UR09 is 30 (up 5) [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remain unchanged. The trading prices in Shandong are unchanged at 1,740 yuan/ton, while in Shanxi it rises from 1,620 to 1,630 yuan/ton. The supply - side indicators show that the operating rate is 85.19% (up 0.47 percentage points), and the daily output is 200,580 tons (up 1,100 tons) [1] Industry News - On January 14, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%. Some provincial inventories decrease, while others increase [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened low and closed high, with an intraday increase of over 2%. The market is strong in the short - term, but the strength is expected to be unsustainable, and it will undergo high - level adjustments in the short term due to poor demand follow - up [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Urea futures opened low and closed high, rising over 2% intraday. Factory orders improved, and some factories stopped selling after being fully subscribed. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1680 - 1720 yuan/ton. Gas - based plants are still reducing production, but the increasing proportion of coal - based plants offsets some of the winter production restrictions. Daily urea production has reached 200,000 tons since the resumption of work after New Year's Day. Agricultural dealers' fertilizer - stocking enthusiasm has increased, and industrial demand is expected to decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The current inventory has decreased to below 1 million tons, a 3.53% decrease from the previous period [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1775 yuan/ton, rising over 2% intraday and closing at 1814 yuan/ton, with a change of 2.02%. The trading volume was 253,756 lots (+23,507 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 17,796 lots and short positions increased by 17,537 lots [2] - **Spot**: The futures market is strong, factory orders have improved, and some factories have stopped selling after being fully subscribed. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1680 - 1720 yuan/ton [4] 3. Warehouse Receipts - On January 14, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 13,355, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] 4. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation is stable, and the futures closing price has increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis has weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the May contract basis at - 64 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan/ton) [7] - **Supply**: On January 14, 2026, the national daily urea production was 199,100 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.05% [9] - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of January 14, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from the previous week, a 3.53% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 6.06 days, a decrease of 0.35 days from the previous period, a 5.46% decrease [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices in some regions have increased after improved transactions, but new orders are being followed up cautiously. Supply is expected to increase in January as some gas-based and technical renovation enterprises resume production. Demand is picking up as winter and spring fertilizer procurement begins, and compound fertilizer and melamine production are recovering. Factory inventories are stable, and port inventories are slightly decreasing. The Indian urea import tender has boosted the international market sentiment. Attention should be paid to export dynamics, national off-season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Figures include Shandong and Henan urea small particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [1][6][7] 2. Urea Production - Figures show urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [27][28][34] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Figures involve urea small particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea, urea large particle CFR price in Southeast Asia, price differences between international and Chinese FOB prices, and urea export profit and disk export profit [38][41][49] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures display compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and urea enterprise advance order days [51][52] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and main contract trading volume and open interest [55][58][60] Market Data - On January 13, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1774 yuan/ton (-9). The ex - factory price of small particles in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1740 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu was 1750 yuan/ton (+10). The price of small lump anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+0). Shandong basis was - 34 yuan/ton (+19), Henan basis was - 34 yuan/ton (+9), and Jiangsu basis was - 24 yuan/ton (+19). Urea production profit was 175 yuan/ton (+10), and export profit was 867 yuan/ton (+16) [1] - As of January 13, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.28% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.22 million tons (+0.30), and the port sample inventory was 13.50 million tons (-3.70) [1] - As of January 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 37.17% (+3.28%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 54.35% (+6.70%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.41 days (+0.41) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the UR05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity spread: None [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：窄幅整理 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 13 日 【行情分析】 尿素高开高走，日内下挫，现货来看，上游工厂报价趋于稳定，订单充足 尚不急于降价吸单。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1680-1720 元/吨，河南个别厂成交价略低。基本面来看，气头装置依然继续停 车降产中，但煤头装置产能占比连年上涨后，冲抵部分冬季限产的影响，元旦 复工以来，尿素日产稳步增加，肥易通数据显示日产已站上 20 万吨。农业经销 商备肥积极性增长，距离小麦返青追肥集中备肥预计还需月半时间，而工业需 求虽由于环保限产解除后产能利用率有所增加，但临近春节假期，开工负荷即 将大幅降低，对尿素支撑乏力，本期库存数据基本持平，部分工厂备肥已完成 大半，上游工厂去化进程放缓，目前库存同比去年大幅偏低，同比去年对尿素 价格压制偏弱。综合来看，基本面暂无明显变动的情况下，前期情绪冷静后， 盘面趋于整理，但库存连续去化以来，价格依然有支撑，尿素预计短期整理， 中长期偏强为主。 【期现行情】 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 13 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 4 元至 1783 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 10 元至 1740 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 5161 手至 23.39 万手，空头持仓增 加 6011 手至 25.4 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.2 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.18 万吨；较去年同期 | | | | | 增加 2.79 万吨；今日开工率 85.8%，较去年同期 81.2%回升 4.5%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 102.22 万吨，较上周增加 0.30 万吨，环比增 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡，最终报收 1783（+4/+0.22%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价企稳，收单乏力，河南出厂报 1680-1710 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1680-1710 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1700-1720 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1630-1650 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1550-1620 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】1 月 12 日，尿素行业日产 20.20 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.18 万吨；较去 年同期增加 2.00 万吨；今日开工率 85.81%，较去年同期 81.26%回升 4.55%。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价整体平稳，市场情绪低迷，成交乏力，厂家收单零星，个低价区成 交尚可。山东地区主流出厂报价上涨，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率提升，原 料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商恐 高开始出货，新单成交乏力，省内尿素厂收单一般，但待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为 主；河南地区市场情 ...

企业收单明显好转，报价连续上涨，但因前期尿素企业库存已经有部分增加，去库幅度有限。随着近期尿 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 素价格上涨，下游追涨趋势或有所放缓，短期尿素企业去库幅度预计有限。UR2605合约短线预计在1750-1 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 800区间波动。 免责声明 尿素产业日报 2026-01-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1776 | -14 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 20 | -1 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 232651 | -344 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -19358 | 7570 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 12850 | 231 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1750 | ...

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开低走，午后翻红。前期收单较多，虽今日跟进放缓，但上游 工厂依然挺价。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1680-1720 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，新疆供应充足，积极寻 找疆外渠道。整体日产环比增加，停产企业陆续复产，供应充裕下价格延续承 压。市场成交活跃度下降，农业需求处于淡季，下一季的集中农需大约为农历 年前后的小麦返青追肥。工业需求端大多受到环保预警的限制，开工多有下 滑，复合肥工厂主产区开工负荷承压，目前整体开工位于历年同期低位，但临 近年底假期，开工负荷难有大幅回升，采购趋于谨慎，三聚氰胺工厂后续复产 有所增加，但支撑不足。本期厂内库存转为小幅累库，虽市场行情火爆，但下 游需求有限，库存并未流畅去化。今日尿素情绪回落，但宏观情绪整体偏强， 尿素午后翻红，目前供需依然宽松，前期上涨速度快，短期震荡整理为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1790 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，午后翻红。最 终收于 1790 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅 0.45%，持仓量 232995 手（+2435 手） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is to be oscillating and bullish, the UR05 - 09 is recommended to conduct long - short arbitrage at low prices, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] Core View - After the New Year's Day in 2026, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas of urea were lifted, the transaction improved, the futures market was oscillating and bullish, which further boosted the spot purchasing sentiment, and the spot price increased slightly. The mainstream producers continued the limited - purchase policy, and the pending orders increased. The supply increased as some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production in January after the gas - based maintenance in the fourth quarter started in December. The off - season storage procurement was in progress. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market cooled down due to the raw material supply - guarantee policies, but the start - up rate rebounded and the procurement improved after the environmental protection restrictions were lifted in some areas after New Year's Day. Melamine had rigid demand for procurement. The inventory in urea plants and ports decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 3.62 million tons of bids from 26 suppliers, with the lowest quotes rising by $5 - 8 per ton compared to the previous tender, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The domestic export quota has no new news, and the export dynamics, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - It includes charts of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [6][7][9][14][16] 2. Urea Output - It contains charts of urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves charts of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [25][27][29] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - It includes charts of urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit [34][36][39][42][48] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It has charts of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [49][50] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It contains charts of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of Hebei urea downstream manufacturers, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [53][56][60]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The urea futures market rebounded last week due to news stimulus, but there is no official confirmation. Fundamentally, there is limited rigid support, and the upside potential of the futures price is restricted. It is expected that the futures price will experience a correction [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics Since the New Year's Day holiday, the market has been weak, with poor order receipts and mostly low - price purchases. Recently, the futures have continued to rebound, the spot sentiment has improved, the purchasing rhythm has become smoother, and most quotes have risen [1][3][4] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - **Price and Volume**: By January 5th, the main May contract of urea was reported at 1,768 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 29th. The weekly trading volume last week was 13.1874 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146,800 tons; the open interest was 6.2529 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 331,500 tons [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The futures increase was greater than the spot increase last week, and the basis weakened. As of January 5th, the basis of the 05 contract was - 48 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 23 yuan/ton. As of December 22nd, the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4 yuan/ton [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On January 5, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 12,376, a week - on - week increase of 1,626 [9]. 3.3 Urea Supply - **Production**: From December 25th to December 31st, the weekly urea production was 1.3591 million tons, an increase of 25,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%. The average daily production was 194,100 tons. It is expected that 3 enterprises will stop production and 5 will resume production in the next cycle. As of January 5th, the national daily urea production was 202,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57% [11]. - **Raw Materials**: Near the end of the year, coal mines are expected to reduce production, and coal prices are expected to be strong. The domestic LNG price decreased last week. The synthetic ammonia price increased, while the urea spot price decreased. The methanol spot price also decreased [13][14]. 3.4 Urea Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of January 2nd, the 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was quoted at 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Affected by environmental protection warnings, the compound fertilizer operating rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. It is expected that the environmental protection warnings may ease in mid - January, but the factories will gradually enter the holiday season [16]. - **Melamine**: From December 26th to January 2nd, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 47.65%, a decrease of 10.42 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate is expected to increase as the previously shut - down plants resume production [16]. - **Inventory**: As of January 2nd, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0192 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week. The port sample inventory was 172,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The port inventory is expected to rise [18]. 3.5 International Market - **Production and Tendering**: Iran has cut production, and the price center has moved up. India's NFL urea import tender opened on January 2nd, with a target purchase volume of 1.5 million tons [20]. - **Prices**: As of January 2nd, most of the international urea prices showed an upward trend, with some exceptions for large - particle Chinese FOB prices [20][22].