近日，财政部、国家税务总局联合发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确自2026年1月1日起，个人（不含个体工商户中的一般纳税 人）销售购买不足2年的住房，按3%征收率全额缴纳增值税；销售购买2年以上（含2年）的住房，免征增值税。2026年1月1日前已完成交易但尚 未申报纳税的，符合条件可按新政执行。 此次政策有三大核心调整：一是统一全国执行标准，打破此前北上广深与其他地区的政策差异，取消一线城市满2年非普通住房差额征税规定；二 是将不满2年住房销售的增值税征收率从5%降至3%，降幅达40%；三是取消普通住房与非普通住房的划分，仅以持有年限作为征税依据，简化政 策执行口径。 税费减负效果直观可见 以上海一套售价100万元的未满2年住房为例，旧政策下需缴纳5万元增值税，新政后仅需3万元，房东直接减负2万元；若为500万元的次新房，增 值税可从23.81万元降至14.56万元，节省9.25万元。 政策出台背景是当前房地产市场的调整态势。近期二手房价格同比跌幅连续扩大，热点城市领跌，市场预期疲弱，新房交易转弱，"卖旧买新"的 置换需求减少，一二手房市场出现分化。此次调整精准回应市场痛点，广东省城规院住房政策研 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent policy change where the value-added tax (VAT) rate for housing sold within two years has been reduced from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026. This aims to lower transaction costs and stimulate the second-hand housing market [5][6] - The report notes a significant decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes in major cities during the fourth quarter of 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 24.9% in Beijing, 19.4% in Shanghai, and 30.8% in Shenzhen for October-November [7][11][14] - The adjustment in VAT is expected to stabilize market expectations and promote overall recovery in the real estate sector, with specific recommendations for companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these changes [8] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The VAT rate for housing sold within two years is reduced to 3%, while sales of properties held for two years or more remain exempt from VAT. This change is projected to save approximately 9.25 million yuan in VAT for a property priced at 5 million yuan [5][6] Market Trends - The report indicates a notable drop in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 11.0%, 18.5%, and 28.7% for the first nine months of 2025, followed by significant declines in October and November [7][11][14] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and the ability to cater to improving customer demands, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Resources Land. It also suggests companies that benefit from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the recent changes in the Beijing real estate market following the introduction of new housing policies on December 24, 2025. The policies include relaxed purchase restrictions, adjustments to down payment ratios, and changes in mortgage rate assessments. Core Insights and Arguments - **New Housing Market Response**: - In the first week after the policy implementation, the new housing market in eastern areas like Shunyi and Tongzhou saw an average increase in viewing volume by 30% and a transaction volume increase of approximately 13% [1][2] - In the western areas (between the Fourth and Sixth Ring Roads), viewing volume increased by 32% and transaction volume grew by about 21% [1][2] - The overall viewing volume in Beijing increased by approximately 22%, with daily average viewing reaching 2.2 groups, and transaction volume increased by 13% to 14% [6] - **Second-Hand Housing Market Reaction**: - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes increased by 30% to 2.1 groups, but actual transactions only rose by about 11% to an average of 585 units per day [4][6] - Significant increases in viewing and transaction volumes were noted in the eastern regions, particularly between the Fourth and Sixth Ring Roads, where viewing volume increased by 42% and transactions grew by 20% [4] - **Market Dynamics and Developer Strategies**: - Developers in the eastern regions offered discounts of 2% to stimulate sales, while those in the western regions provided discounts of 5% [3][8] - Small-sized housing units outside the Fifth Ring Road performed well, accounting for 78% of sales, driven by developer incentives [8] - **Future Market Outlook**: - The Beijing real estate market is expected to face pressure in 2026 due to a lack of long-term population attraction plans. The government aims to stabilize the market through relaxed household registration policies [2][16] - The current policies are anticipated to have a positive impact on the upcoming spring market, with expectations for a duration of 30 to 45 days [10] Additional Important Insights - **Rental Yield Trends**: - The average rental yield in Beijing is between 2.1% and 2.5%, with better performance in areas like Tongzhou and Haidian, while areas like Chaoyang and Dongcheng have seen significant declines [12][13] - Long-term asset holders in low-yield areas are beginning to list their properties for sale, indicating a shift in market sentiment [13] - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - As of November, approximately 36,000 units of distressed properties were listed nationwide, with expectations of 283,000 units being released over the next two years [19] - The total number of second-hand homes listed for normal transactions exceeded 10 million, indicating significant market pressure [24] - **Banking Sector and Distressed Properties**: - The majority of distressed properties are concentrated in city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, accounting for 70% to 80% of the total [22] - The distinction between bank direct sales and foreclosure properties is highlighted, with direct sales being less public and involving fewer procedural hurdles [21] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the Beijing real estate market's response to new policies, market dynamics, and future outlooks, providing a comprehensive overview for stakeholders.

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.28 2025-12-29 第 52 周成交回升，北京放松限购加力稳定市场 投资要点： 票 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 行 上周地产成交回升。12 月 24 日北京进一步放宽购房条件，我们预计后续会有更多 城市跟进，从而稳定年底市场，为明年开局打好基础。 报 告 证 券 研 究 业 报 告 跟 [table_Authors] 踪 [Table_Summary] 上周大中城市成交回升。12 月 24 日，北京《关于进一步优化调整 本市房地产相关政策的通知》，放宽非京籍家庭购房条件，同时支 持多子女家庭住房需求。受此影响，上周房地产成交继续回升。我 们判断后续会有更多城市跟进，有助于稳定年底市场，为明年开局 打好基础。 上周大中城市新房成交环比继续回升：2025 年第 52 周 30 大中城市 新房成交面积为 300 万平，环比前一周 32.1%，同比 2024 年-22.7%。 其中一线城市销售面积 54 万平，环比前一周 3.6%，同比 2024 年 -38%。二线城市销售面积 192 万平，环比前一周 50.99%，同比 2024 年- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the year-on-year net signed area for second-hand homes, with a decrease of 30% compared to the previous year, which is an expansion of 15 percentage points from November [4]. - In contrast, the year-on-year decline in the net signed area for new homes has narrowed to 26%, improving by 9 percentage points from November [4]. - The central economic work conference has shifted its focus from "greater efforts to stabilize the real estate market" to "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market," suggesting potential support for urban renewal and housing fund reforms [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the difference between net rental yields and mortgage rates as a key observation for total demand in both new and second-hand housing markets [6]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - The year-on-year decline in new home net signed area has narrowed, with the average area signed in sample cities showing improvement compared to the past four years [10][11]. - The report indicates that the new home market is experiencing a more favorable supply-demand environment compared to the second-hand market [6]. Second-Hand Home Market - The year-on-year decline in second-hand home net signed area has expanded, with the average area signed in sample cities remaining at a relatively high level compared to the last five years [15][18]. - The report notes that the average viewing numbers for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities have decreased year-on-year, indicating a potential slowdown in market activity [43]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to November has seen a year-on-year decline of 14%, with the average transaction price showing a narrower increase of 7% [22]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of unsold land parcels, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [33]. Market Liquidity - The report assesses liquidity indicators, noting a tightening in macro-level liquidity in December, which may impact market conditions [47]. - The proportion of listings with price increases has decreased slightly, indicating a cautious market sentiment [48]. Inventory and Unsold Properties - The report indicates an increase in the unsold inventory of new homes, with the de-stocking cycle lengthening compared to October [33]. - The report also highlights that the de-stocking cycles for first and second-tier cities have increased, suggesting a potential slowdown in sales [33].

New Housing Market - New housing sales area in 47 cities reached 5.566 million square meters, marking a weekly high since July, with a week-on-week increase of 28.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%[5] - The increase in new housing sales is attributed to year-end sales push by developers and the introduction of quality projects in key cities[2][5] - The policy adjustments in Beijing, including lowering the social security and tax requirements for non-residents, are expected to boost the new housing market[10][12] Second-Hand Housing Market - Second-hand housing transaction volume slightly decreased by 1.6% week-on-week and saw a year-on-year decline of 29.6%[7] - The decline in second-hand housing transactions is primarily due to the crowding-out effect from the active new housing market[7][12] - The recent policy changes in Beijing have led to an increase in second-hand housing transactions post-implementation[12] Risks and Market Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected declines in housing prices, increased debt risks for real estate companies, and macroeconomic downturns exceeding expectations[3][13] - The current real estate market issues are seen as structural, with a shift in demand from investment to consumption, and a need to adjust public expectations regarding housing prices[12]

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 北京新房成交大幅反弹 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 1）政策跟踪 12 月 24 日，北京四部门联合发文，调降非京籍及多孩家庭购房门槛，标志着一线城市核心区限购政策进 一步边际松动。内容主要聚焦两方面：一是放宽非京籍准入，将五环内购房社保/个税年限由"3 年"降至"2 年"，五环外由"2 年"降至"1 年"；二是支持多孩家庭，明确二孩及以上家庭可在五环内多购一套住房（京 籍上限增至 3 套，非京籍增至 2 套）。此次调整旨在通过降低刚需入市门槛及打开改善性需求空间，切实落实 中央经济工作会议关于稳定房地产市场的精神。 政策定向扩容需求，成交放量系年末翘尾与情绪共振。本次政策精准锚定非京籍刚需及多孩改善群体，预 计将有效扩大潜在购房需求基数。从高频数据看，本周北京新房成交环比激增 79%，需理性看待的是，由于 新政于 24 日才正式生效（仅覆盖统计周期 19-25 日的尾部），本周成交放量更多归因于房企年末冲量的季节性 因素，政策短期内主要体现为预期的改善与 ...

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's new real estate policies aim to expand the home-buying demographic and stimulate market activity, with potential implications for other first-tier cities [2][4][7] Policy Adjustments - The new policies include lowering the social security and tax duration requirements for non-resident families, allowing multi-child families to purchase additional properties, and eliminating the distinction between first and second home mortgage rates [4][5] - Specifically, the social security requirement for non-resident families within the Fifth Ring has been reduced from 3 years to 2 years, and outside the Fifth Ring from 2 years to 1 year [4] - The current mortgage rates are set at 3.05% for first homes and 3.45% for second homes within the Fifth Ring, with the new policy allowing banks to set rates based on market conditions [4] Market Impact - Analysts expect the new policies to increase market activity, particularly benefiting non-resident and multi-child families, and to lower the cost of purchasing second homes [5][6] - Initial market reactions indicate a significant increase in second-hand home transactions immediately following the policy announcement, although new home sales have not yet shown a marked increase [2][12] Broader Implications - The policy changes reflect a broader trend of easing restrictions on housing consumption, aligning with national directives to support housing demand [7][8] - The adjustments in Beijing are seen as a potential precursor for similar policy changes in other major cities, with expectations for further optimizations in housing policies across the country [8][9] Current Market Conditions - The Beijing housing market is currently experiencing downward pressure on prices, with new residential prices showing slight fluctuations and second-hand home prices declining [11] - Despite the new policies, there remains a lack of confidence among buyers, which may hinder immediate market recovery [13]

2025.12. 24 本文字数：2490，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 北京楼市迎来重磅新政。 12月24日，北京市住房城乡建设委、北京市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、北京住房公积金管 理中心四部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》（下称《通知》），自 2025年12月24日起施行。《通知》在放宽非京籍家庭购房条件、支持多子女家庭住房需求的同时， 也进一步为购房者减负。 拉平首套和二套房贷利率 《通知》明确，进一步优化个人住房信贷政策，银行业金融机构根据北京地区市场利率定价自律机制 要求和本机构经营状况、客户风险状况等因素，在利率定价机制安排方面不再区分首套住房和二套住 房，合理确定每笔商业性个人住房贷款的具体利率水平。关于住房贷款相关业务，可向经办银行具体 咨询。 "上海、深圳在今年8～9月已经出台了这一政策。具体利率是多少，将由银行根据利率定价机制安 排，总体上降低了二套房贷利率，有利于降低购买二套房家庭的购房成本，促进需求释放。"中指研 究院相关负责人表示。 据中指研究院监测，2025年以来，全国各地公积金政策出台频次超过270条，涉及提高公积金贷款 额度、降低公 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current market has low supply, rising demand, strong raw materials, and inventory de - stocking, which provides support. The market has digested the off - season demand and steel export license news. It is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation in the future. In the short term, it is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly upward trend. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start time of winter storage demand [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The open interest of the main rebar contract increased by 17,388 lots on Tuesday. The trading volume slightly decreased compared with the previous trading day. It fluctuated within the day, with the lowest at 3,111 yuan/ton, the highest at 3,144 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,136 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.06%. The trading volume was 837,866 lots [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3,320 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 184 yuan/ton compared with the spot price, which provided some support for the futures price [1]. Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of December 18, rebar production increased by 29,000 tons week - on - week to 1.8168 million tons, and decreased by 370,500 tons year - on - year. The production was at a near - 4 - year low. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.47%, down 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and 1.16% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged from last week. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 26,500 tons to 2.2655 million tons, down 28,600 tons year - on - year [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak, with the average daily trading volume of building materials nationwide maintaining at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a near - 5 - year low. As of the week of December 18, the apparent consumption increased by 55,500 tons week - on - week to 2.0864 million tons, and decreased by 300,400 tons year - on - year, at a near - 4 - year low. There were regional differences in demand. Construction in the north stagnated due to cold weather, while in the south, existing projects rushed to complete, and demand had good resilience. The increase in apparent demand was higher than that in production. There was a possibility of winter storage driving demand later [2]. - Inventory side: Inventory continued to decline, and the decline rate increased. As of the week of December 18, the total inventory decreased by 269,600 tons week - on - week to 4.5254 million tons, with an 8 - week consecutive decline, but still 495,200 tons higher year - on - year. Social inventory was 3.13 million tons, down 257,000 tons week - on - week, and the de - stocking accelerated. Steel mill inventory was 1.3954 million tons, slightly down 12,600 tons. The de - stocking of social inventory showed the current demand resilience. The overall inventory pressure was still controllable [3][4]. Macroeconomic aspect The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aimed to stabilize the real estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality" [4]. Cost aspect Iron ore was strong, and coking coal and coke futures stabilized and rose, which continued to increase cost support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, rising apparent demand, continuous inventory de - stocking, loose policy expectations, large discount on the futures market providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and significant rebound of coking coal and coke to increase cost support [6]. - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real estate data [6]. Short - term View Summary The market is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start time of winter storage demand [7].