Core Points - Shenzhen's new regulations on affordable housing aim to convert a portion of existing affordable housing projects into commercial housing, addressing market challenges and stimulating development [1][4] - The regulations allow for adjustments in the allocation of affordable housing, providing flexibility for developers and reducing pressure on the housing market [2][5] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The new regulations will be effective from June 24, 2025, and will last for five years, consisting of 15 articles [1] - Existing projects can convert 40% of the designated affordable housing area into commercial housing, with the remaining 60% to be transferred to the government based on average plot ratio [1] - Developers can also convert 50% of the affordable housing area into commercial housing and the other 50% into rental housing without needing to apply for planning modifications [2] Group 2: Market Implications - The shift from affordable housing to commercial housing is intended to expedite the launch of existing projects, which have been stalled due to financial imbalances [4] - The adjustment aims to mitigate the impact of affordable housing on the commercial housing market, which has been experiencing a downward trend for four years [4] - The new regulations are seen as a way to activate the real estate market by addressing historical issues related to relocation and liquidity in urban renewal projects [5]

Group 1: Shanghai Land Auction - On June 19, Shanghai's fifth batch of land auctions commenced, with five plots sold for a total of 19.157 billion yuan, indicating a high market enthusiasm [1] - Four plots were sold at a premium, with Poly Developments winning two significant plots in Yangpu and Minhang districts, showcasing its expansion strategy [1] Group 2: Chengdu Land Auction - Chengdu's recent land auction resulted in a total revenue of 3.837 billion yuan from two residential plots, reflecting strong confidence from real estate companies in the market [2] - China Railway Construction secured a plot in Wuhou District at a floor price of 16,600 yuan per square meter, while Guomao won a plot in Jinjiang District at a floor price of 35,500 yuan per square meter, the second highest in the city [2] Group 3: Xi'an Real Estate Measures - Xi'an has introduced measures to promote a stable real estate market, including allowing housing provident funds to be used for down payments on new homes [3] - These measures aim to lower financial barriers for homebuyers, potentially increasing demand and alleviating inventory pressure for real estate companies [3] Group 4: Kington Service Offer - Kington Service Group announced an extension of the deadline for a potential unconditional cash offer to September 7, 2025, due to pending share transfer procedures [4] - The delay may raise market concerns regarding the acquisition's uncertainty, but the integration of control by the offeror is expected to progress steadily [4] Group 5: Ruian Real Estate Development - Ruian Real Estate plans to acquire a 50% stake in a project company in Shanghai through a joint venture, with a base price of 2.89365 billion yuan [5] - This move is anticipated to expand its business footprint and leverage its experience in developing notable projects in Shanghai [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy changes in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen represent a significant and comprehensive easing of restrictions in the real estate market, aimed at revitalizing demand and stabilizing the market [1][8]. Policy Changes - Major cities have removed long-standing restrictions such as purchase limits, loan limits, and price caps, effectively lifting the "tightening spells" that have constrained the market for years [1][3]. - In Beijing, the "recognition of housing and loans" policy has been abolished, allowing first-time buyers to qualify regardless of previous loans, with a down payment reduced to 30% [3][4]. - Shanghai has also relaxed its policies, reducing the required social security payment period for non-local single buyers from five years to three years, with similar down payment reductions [4][5]. Market Response - The immediate market reaction has been robust, with increased activity in sales offices and a surge in inquiries and transactions, indicating a strong pent-up demand being released [5][6]. - Developers are quickly adjusting their strategies in response to the new policies, with reports of increased visitor numbers and deposits in key urban areas [6][7]. Broader Implications - The policy changes signal a clear recognition by management of the severe challenges facing the real estate market, which are interconnected with local finances, various industries, and the stability of the financial system [7][8]. - The current environment is seen as a critical window for observing whether the market can stabilize and recover, with favorable conditions for potential buyers [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent data on Guangzhou's housing market indicates a significant shift, with both new and second-hand home prices experiencing a notable decline, while transaction volumes show signs of recovery, suggesting a complex market dynamic [1][2][4][23]. Price Trends - Over the past year, Guangzhou's first-hand home prices have been in a slight decline, with a recent increase in the drop to -0.8% [2]. - Second-hand home prices also saw a similar trend, with a drop of -0.8% last month after a brief period of stabilization [4]. Transaction Volumes - In May, Guangzhou's new home transactions reached 5,827 units, marking a 20.6% increase from the previous month, the second-highest peak this year [6]. - For second-hand homes, 9,228 units were signed in May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.73%, with total transactions for the first five months reaching 46,000 units, significantly higher than last year [9]. Market Dynamics - The data suggests that price adjustments have led to increased buyer acceptance, resulting in higher transaction volumes [12]. - The top-selling properties in Guangzhou now include several high-end and improved housing options, indicating a shift in buyer preferences [12][13]. Policy Changes - Recent policy changes in Guangzhou include tightening high plot ratio regulations and reintroducing measures to cancel purchase restrictions, sales limits, and price caps, aimed at stabilizing prices and boosting market confidence [15][21]. - The city is determined to prevent excessive price competition among new developments, which has been a significant factor in the ongoing price declines [18][20]. Market Outlook - Despite the ongoing price decline, the measures taken by Guangzhou are expected to stabilize the market and prevent further drastic price reductions, indicating a strategic approach to managing the housing market [24].

近日，多地发布楼市新政。 浙江衢州发布稳楼市新政提出，对符合条件的购房人给予2万元/套的团购购房补贴；多孩家庭改善性购房补贴 最高20万元；智慧新城购房给予600元/㎡的购房消费券补贴，单套最高10万元。 湖南衡阳出台住房公积金新政，包括在全省首次推出缴存职工在衡阳市购买与所购住房同一小区车库（位）， 可提取住房公积金；提高贷款额度；取消贷款次数限制等。 值得注意的是，日前召开的国务院常务会议提出，要更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。国家统计局新闻发言 人付凌晖6月16日在"5月份国民经济运行情况新闻发布会"上表示，下阶段，要积极主动适应房地产市场供求关 系发生重大变化的现实，促进刚性和改善性住房需求释放。 衢州发布稳楼市新政 日前，"衢州发布"微信公众号发布了《关于进一步促进房地产市场平稳健康发展若干措施的通知》。 衡阳发布住房公积金新政 近日，衡阳市发布《关于进一步优化调整住房公积金政策的通知》，明确了一系列惠民举措。 其中提出，提高贷款额度，缴存职工个人或夫妻双方正常缴存住房公积金，购买自住住房申请住房公积金贷款 的，最高贷款额度由80万元提高至90万元；对二孩且子女未成年家庭、大专及以上学历毕业生毕业3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Implementation Plan for Boosting Consumption in Guangzhou" emphasizes the cancellation of restrictions on real estate policies, aiming to stimulate housing demand and market activity [4][6][15]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The draft proposes the complete cancellation of purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price limits in the real estate market [4]. - Similar policies have already been relaxed since last year, with the full lifting of sales restrictions in May and purchase restrictions in September [5]. - The cancellation of price limits has been in practice, with developers required to file prices but without official guidance [6]. Group 2: Mortgage Adjustments - The draft mentions lowering down payment ratios and interest rates to reduce the burden on homebuyers [7]. - Current mortgage rates in Guangzhou are set at 3%, with a minimum down payment of 15% for commercial personal housing loans [8]. - Experts suggest that there may be further room for lowering interest rates, especially with recent monetary policy easing [8]. Group 3: Housing Fund Optimization - The draft aims to optimize housing provident fund policies, allowing simultaneous withdrawal for down payments and loan applications [9][10]. - The maximum loan amount for individuals is set at 800,000 yuan, and for two or more applicants, it is 1.6 million yuan [9]. Group 4: Urban Renewal Initiatives - Guangzhou plans to invest 100 billion yuan in the renovation of urban villages, with a goal to start over 150 old community renovations by 2025 [12]. - This investment is expected to accelerate the construction of resettlement housing, addressing quality housing demand [12]. Group 5: Stock Acquisition and Housing Demand - The draft proposes using special loans to purchase existing properties as resettlement housing, which is seen as a dual-benefit policy [13][14]. - This approach is expected to help digest existing property inventory while addressing resettlement needs [14]. Group 6: Overall Market Impact - The policies are designed to promote a full-cycle and full-industry circulation in the real estate sector, benefiting both new and second-hand housing markets [15]. - The measures aim to support lower-income groups in achieving better housing experiences and reducing living costs [15].

意外也不意外。 我跟朋友开玩笑说，活久见，这大概是这几年地产人唯一的甜。 6月13日，也就是昨天，首个全面取消限购的超一线城市出现了，广州。 意外的是，看似还算平稳的超一线市场怎么就一下全面放开了；不意外的是，如果有这天到来的时候，那一定自广州始。 而且它还不是单一出击，新的旧的，集结了一箩筐政策，老广真的太客气。 别急，我们去看看这次广州全面放开到底是基于一个怎样的背景，看完你就有答案了。 一 首先，广州的成交并不差。这里的不坏我分两条线说。 不过相比广州地产人，我朋友圈更嗨的是非广州地产人。 确实，每到这时候，留给所有局外人最黏糊的东西不就是遐想么。 所以接下来会怎样，其他三个会跟么？ 首先是广州新房。 今年一季度，广州新房成交14453套，这个数字对比2022年、2023年同期确实低了，但跟过去三年各季度相比，不算跌相难看的数字。 同比2024年一季度，还涨了39%。 所以今年的新房数据不算难看。 其次是这里的二手住宅的成交。 这个数据更好看，1～5月二手住宅网签了46722套，同比涨幅17.82%。 其中，5月网签了9228套，同比涨幅16.79%。 数据源：克而瑞广州 数据源：广州市房地产中介协会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with a growing number of families facing difficulties in selling multiple properties, leading to a shift in perception regarding real estate as an investment tool [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of October 2022, 41.5% of urban households in China owned two or more properties, indicating a fundamental change in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market [1]. - The total number of commercial housing units in China exceeded 182 million by December 2022, far surpassing market demand, reflecting a significant oversupply issue [6]. - Many families that previously invested in multiple properties are now struggling to sell them, with the once-booming market now characterized by stagnation and declining prices [3][5]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - Young people are increasingly opting out of homeownership, viewing it as a burden rather than a status symbol, which contrasts with previous generations' perspectives [6][11]. - Economic pressures from the pandemic have led to a shift in consumer behavior, with many families prioritizing savings over spending, further dampening demand for real estate [8][9]. - The rental market is also under pressure, particularly in lower-tier cities, where demand is significantly lower than in major urban centers [8][9]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Families with multiple properties are facing increased financial strain due to stagnant incomes and ongoing mortgage obligations, raising concerns about potential defaults [9]. - The anticipated implementation of property taxes may further exacerbate financial burdens for those owning multiple properties, potentially leading to a rush to sell and further market decline [9][16]. - The situation mirrors historical trends seen in Japan and South Korea, where real estate bubbles led to economic downturns and social issues, although China's circumstances are viewed as more favorable due to effective macroeconomic policies [11][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Chinese government is taking measures to stabilize the real estate market, aiming for a more rational and stable environment moving forward [16]. - The role of real estate is shifting back to fulfilling basic housing needs rather than serving as a primary investment vehicle, aligning with the changing attitudes of younger generations [16].

行业走势图 行 业 研 究 2025 年 06 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《城市更新示范城市扩容，去库存进 程有望提速 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.6.6 《"好房子"系列专题一：四代宅崛起， 政策红利与产品创新驱动居住升级— 行业深度报告》-2025.6.4 《新房成交面积环比增长，杭州土拍 市场火热—行业周报》-2025.6.2 新房成交面积同环比下降，城市更新示范城市扩容 ——行业周报 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房成交面积同环比下降，城市更新示范城市扩容 本周我们跟踪的 68 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The central government continues to support urban renewal, with 20 cities selected as demonstration cities, while both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes have shrunk [7] - The report emphasizes that stable real estate companies are key investment focuses, particularly those with strong financial health and good performance, such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others [7] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index rose by 0.86%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.88%, indicating a relative underperformance of the real estate sector [3][12] Industry Fundamentals - In the week of May 30 to June 5, the total transaction volume of new homes in 38 key cities was 21,688 units, a year-on-year decrease of 26.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 27.2% [5][21] - The total transaction area was 218.5 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 34.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 27.9% [5][21] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 187.25 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a depletion cycle of 143.7 weeks [5][51] Land Market Supply and Transactions - In the week of May 26 to June 1, land supply was 35.949 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with an average supply price of 2,157 yuan per square meter, up 60.3% year-on-year [6] - Land transaction volume was 23.175 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, and the transaction amount reached 35.71 billion yuan, up 50.7% year-on-year [6] Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 6.5 billion yuan in credit bonds in the week of May 30 to June 5, with a year-on-year increase of 12.07% and a month-on-month increase of 11.88% [6]