Core Insights - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant declines in both sales area and sales revenue for the first nine months of 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% in sales area and 7.9% in sales revenue, indicating a worsening trend compared to previous months [1][2][5] - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is expected to provide guidance for the real estate sector's development over the next five years, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][17] Demand - From January to September, the total sales area of new commercial housing reached 658 million square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year, with residential sales area declining by 5.6% [2] - The sales revenue for new commercial housing was 6.30 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.9% year-on-year, with residential sales revenue falling by 7.6% [2] Supply - The total investment in real estate development for the first nine months was 6.77 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.9%, which is an increase in the rate of decline compared to the previous month [5] - The construction area for new housing was 4.54 million square meters, down 18.9% year-on-year, although the decline rate has slightly narrowed [8] Funding Sources - The total funds available to real estate developers amounted to 7.23 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year, with domestic loans falling by 1.4% [12][14] - Self-raised funds decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, while pre-sale deposits also saw a decline of 10.3% [13] Policy Dynamics - Recent policy measures include the approval of pilot programs for market-oriented allocation of land resources and local governments implementing measures to stimulate housing demand, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing property tax policies [16] Outlook - The overall economic growth in China remains stable, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters, but there are signs of slowing consumption and investment growth [17] - The fourth quarter is expected to see the implementation of policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations and stimulating demand, including potential interest rate cuts and measures to activate the housing market [17][18]

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant volatility, with predictions made by Pan Shiyi in 2018 regarding risks in the market being increasingly validated over time [1] - Key factors influencing the market include exchange rate differences, supply-demand balance, and sustainability of returns [3] Market Trends - The first trend observed is price fluctuations caused by supply disruptions, particularly as many buyers who utilized business loans during the peak period of 2020-2021 face risks due to falling property prices [5] - The second trend is the divergence in property prices across different cities and locations, with first-tier cities maintaining stable or rising prices while third and fourth-tier cities face downward pressure [5] - The third trend involves increasing difficulty in property demolition, as the market faces oversupply and government efforts focus on reducing inventory rather than increasing housing stock [7] Economic and Policy Environment - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain steady growth, but global economic uncertainties may impact the real estate market [7] - Government regulations aimed at stabilizing market expectations and prices continue to be enforced, including measures like purchase restrictions and lending limits [9] - Urbanization trends are leading to increased population movement towards first and second-tier cities, posing challenges for the real estate markets in third and fourth-tier cities [9] Market Sentiment and Challenges - The real estate market is characterized by uncertainty, with ongoing sales difficulties for developers and agents despite frequent policy interventions [11] - Issues such as unfinished projects (known as "rotten buildings") significantly undermine buyer confidence and contribute to market hesitance [11] - Buyers are encouraged to adopt a rational approach and avoid being misled by misleading promotions, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making in the current market landscape [13]

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities is experiencing significant price declines, with a notable case in Guangzhou where a property sold for 50,284 yuan per square meter, down from a previous high of 120,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a drastic price drop of over 58% [2][4][6] - The phenomenon of "urgent sales" is impacting the price stability in core urban areas, with similar trends observed in Shanghai and Beijing, where properties that were once highly valued are now being sold at steep discounts [7][8] - The current market downturn is attributed to three main challenges: loss of buyer confidence, oversupply of housing, and financial pressure on homeowners, leading to a cycle of declining prices and increased urgency to sell [8][9] Market Dynamics - The rapid decline in property prices is not limited to suburban areas but is now affecting prime locations, indicating a shift in the real estate landscape [7] - Data shows that since September, the rate of price decline in first and second-tier cities has accelerated, with weekly adjustments becoming the norm rather than monthly fluctuations [7][8] Underlying Challenges - Buyer confidence is at a low, with many potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, fearing further price drops, which exacerbates the downward pressure on prices [8] - The oversupply of housing is becoming increasingly problematic, with existing inventory exceeding actual demand, leading to a fundamental imbalance in the market [8] - Homeowners are facing financial strain due to economic pressures, prompting many to sell at a loss as a means of financial relief [9] Policy Direction - The government is actively seeking solutions to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the need for a scientific allocation of resources related to people, housing, land, and finance [10][11] - Future housing development will focus on population needs, with land supply and financial resources being aligned with actual housing demand to avoid waste [11][12] Recommendations for Stakeholders - For first-time homebuyers, it is suggested to proceed with purchases if there is a genuine need and financial capability, as the market is shifting towards valuing quality over speculative gains [12][13] - Investors are advised to abandon the notion of guaranteed profits from real estate, as the market is returning to its fundamental purpose of providing housing [12][13] - Sellers should avoid high pricing strategies and instead set realistic prices to attract buyers, as the market dynamics have changed significantly [13]

Core Insights - In September 2025, Chengdu's new residential property supply reached approximately 212 million square meters, with transactions around 143 million square meters, indicating a month-on-month increase of 152.2% in supply and 13.8% in transactions [15] - The cumulative sales amount for the top 30 real estate companies in Chengdu from January to September 2025 was approximately 1359.7 billion yuan, with a total transaction area of about 646.6 million square meters [4][6] - The top three companies in terms of sales amount in Chengdu were China Railway Construction Real Estate, China Resources Land, and Chengdu Rail Transit City, each exceeding 100 billion yuan in sales [4][6] Market Performance - In September, the supply of residential properties was approximately 121.9 million square meters, with a transaction volume of about 84.9 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 113.9% in supply and a 4.9% year-on-year increase in cumulative transactions [17] - The total cumulative supply of residential properties in Chengdu from January to September 2025 was 1351.7 million square meters, with total transactions of 1413.7 million square meters [15] Land Transactions - In September, Chengdu launched 21 residential land plots, with 13 successfully sold, resulting in an overall premium rate of 5.5% [19] - The market for second-hand homes also saw an increase in transaction volume, remaining the main driver of market activity, with transaction areas 2.2 times that of new homes [19] Policy Developments - On September 9, Chengdu issued a public consultation announcement regarding supplementary regulations to the "Technical Regulations for Urban Planning Management in Chengdu (2024)," aimed at regulating previous non-standard practices in property gifting and ensuring the overall quality of residential projects [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Shanghai Aluminum may remain in a high - level oscillation, but high prices may suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventory and macro - sentiment [77]. - Aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up nature to Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [74]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Limited domestic supply increase, expected decline in overseas supply, and low social inventory [8]. - **Bearish factors**: Weak alumina prices and increased overseas macro - uncertainties [8]. - **Overseas political situation**: The US federal government's "shutdown" increased global financial market uncertainties. The delay of non - farm data made ADP employment data crucial. The 9 - month ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 people, leading to expectations of Fed rate cuts [9][10][13]. - **Domestic economic situation**: China's economy shows a slow recovery. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The consumption market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays was good, but the film box office declined year - on - year [14][17]. 3.2 Data Analysis - **Bauxite supply**: In 2025, from January to August, domestic bauxite production was 40.861 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year. However, due to environmental protection and resource grade decline, the actual supply increase is limited. From January to August, imports were 141.75 million tons, up 31.4% year - on - year, with a dependence of 78.4%. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [20][23]. - **Alumina supply**: In August 2025, China's alumina production was 7.925 million tons, up 7.5% year - on - year. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, with high production and an open import window. New capacity is planned to be put into production later, increasing the surplus pressure [27]. - **Primary aluminum production**: In August 2025, primary aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, down 0.5% year - on - year. In September, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly. The upper limit of electrolytic aluminum capacity is 45 million tons, and the supply increase space is limited. The low proportion of aluminum ingots provides support for aluminum prices [30]. - **Aluminum processing**: In the first week of October, the overall aluminum processing start - up rate decreased to 62.5% month - on - month, showing seasonal characteristics and internal differentiation [33]. - **Aluminum product demand**: In August 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.548 million tons, up 1% month - on - month and down 4.2% year - on - year. From January to August, it was 43.79 million tons, basically flat year - on - year. Demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [36]. - **Inventory situation**: LME aluminum inventory decreased, and SHFE aluminum inventory decreased slightly in the week of September 30. During the National Day holiday, aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated to 634,000 tons as of October 9, an increase of 47,000 tons from September 29 [48][52]. - **Price difference**: On October 9, the domestic spot discount widened, and the LME aluminum premium widened [56]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In August, recycled aluminum alloy production was 614,500 tons, down 1.7% month - on - month and up 8.6% year - on - year. As of September 25, the recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate was 56.6%, up 0.7% week - on - week [60][64]. - **Aluminum alloy import and export**: In August 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, down 16.7% year - on - year; the export was 29,100 tons, up 28.3% year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will remain low in the fourth quarter [68]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of October 10, China's aluminum alloy weekly social inventory was 75,700 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from last week; the in - plant inventory was 61,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from last week [73]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and it is recommended to take a long - position on dips [74]. - Shanghai Aluminum may remain in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventory and macro - sentiment [77].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in Shanghai for the period of January to August 2025 Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market experienced a sales downturn in August 2025, attributed to insufficient new supply and significant pressure on inventory in outer districts. However, recent policy adjustments aimed at optimizing housing purchase restrictions and increasing support for housing loans are expected to stabilize market expectations and promote recovery [3][24] - The top 20 real estate companies in Shanghai achieved a total sales performance of 277.79 billion yuan, with 12 companies surpassing 10 billion yuan in sales [5][6] - The leading companies by sales amount were Poly Developments (31.07 billion yuan), China Merchants Shekou (29.87 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (26.17 billion yuan) [4][7] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the top 20 real estate companies in Shanghai collectively recorded sales of 277.79 billion yuan and a sales area of 3.879 million square meters [5][6] - The top three companies by sales amount were Poly Developments (31.07 billion yuan), China Merchants Shekou (29.87 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (26.17 billion yuan) [4][7] - The top three companies by sales area were China Merchants Shekou (511,000 square meters), Poly Developments (421,000 square meters), and China Resources Land (309,000 square meters) [4][7] Residential Market - The total sales amount for the top 10 residential projects in Shanghai reached 82.36 billion yuan, with the threshold for inclusion set at 4.77 billion yuan [9] - The leading residential project was Shanghai One No. 1, with sales amounting to 18.42 billion yuan [9][10] - The total sales area for the top 10 residential projects was 726,000 square meters, with Shanghai One No. 1 again leading with 100,000 square meters [11] Market Outlook - The recent policy adjustments in Shanghai are expected to significantly alleviate the sales pressure in outer districts, benefiting companies operating in these areas. Real estate firms are encouraged to leverage this policy window to enhance marketing efforts [24]

Core Viewpoint - The recent measures taken by various cities to prevent significant drops in housing prices indicate a shift in regulatory strategy aimed at stabilizing the real estate market rather than allowing uncontrolled price declines [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Measures - Multiple cities, including Suzhou, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, and Xiamen, have implemented "price drop limits" to prevent housing prices from falling sharply, with regulations specifying that prices cannot drop below a certain percentage of the registered price [1][3]. - For instance, Suzhou has set a rule that new residential properties cannot be sold for more than 15% below the registered price, while Nanjing intervened when a developer attempted to reduce prices by nearly 15% [3]. Group 2: Risks of Price Declines - The government is concerned that significant price drops could lead to severe risks, including the potential for unfinished projects if developers face cash flow issues due to aggressive price cuts [4][5]. - Financial risks are also a concern, as falling prices may lead homeowners to default on their mortgages, increasing bad debts for banks and threatening financial stability [4]. Group 3: Implications for Buyers and Investors - The "price drop limits" signal to potential homebuyers that they can make purchases without the fear of sudden price declines, allowing for more rational decision-making [6]. - For investors, the message is clear: the era of quick profits from real estate appreciation is over, and future price stability will limit short-term investment opportunities [6][7].

Core Insights - The implementation of the "Six Policies" in Shanghai since August 26 has led to a significant increase in housing market activity, with both new and second-hand housing transactions showing positive growth trends in September [1][2][3]. Group 1: Housing Market Performance - In September, the total transaction volume for new and second-hand housing reached 2.07 million square meters, representing an 8% month-on-month increase and a 24% year-on-year increase [1]. - New housing transactions amounted to 550,000 square meters in September, with a 28% month-on-month increase and a 14% year-on-year increase [2]. - Second-hand housing transactions totaled 18,000 units in September, reflecting a 3% month-on-month increase and a 27% year-on-year increase [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average subscription ratio for newly launched projects in September was 0.75, up from 0.71 earlier in the year, indicating improved demand [2]. - The daily average transaction volume for second-hand housing increased to 609 units post-policy implementation, marking a 12% rise compared to the pre-policy daily average [3]. - The number of new purchase commissions for second-hand housing rose by 7% in September compared to August, with intermediary contracts increasing by 10% [3]. Group 3: Outer Ring Market Activity - The outer ring market has seen a notable increase in activity, with daily average transactions for new housing projects rising by 40% in September compared to August [4]. - Second-hand housing transactions in the outer ring increased by 6% month-on-month and 34% year-on-year, accounting for 57% of the city's total second-hand housing transactions [4]. - Approximately 14% of transactions in the outer ring involved buyers from four specific groups supported by the "Six Policies," which is higher than the citywide average [4].

Core Viewpoint - Wuhan City has announced new policies to promote stable and healthy development in the real estate market, including an increase in the maximum housing provident fund loan limits for families [1][2]. Group 1: Loan Limits - The maximum housing provident fund loan limit for families with dual contributors has been raised from 1.2 million to 1.5 million yuan [2][3]. - For families with a single contributor, the maximum loan limit remains at 1.2 million yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Loan Calculation Adjustments - The repayment capacity calculation for housing provident fund loans has been adjusted, increasing the repayment ratio from 35% to 40% [3]. - The formula for calculating the loan amount based on repayment capacity is: (borrower's contribution base + spouse's contribution base) × repayment ratio × 12 months × loan term [3]. Group 3: Loan Eligibility Adjustments - From October 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026, a property currently listed for sale will not count towards the loan limit when applying for a housing provident fund loan for new purchases [4]. - Families selling their only property can apply for a first-time home loan, while those selling one of two properties can apply for a second home loan [4]. Group 4: Interest Subsidies and Support - A 1% interest subsidy on the initial loan amount will be provided for families purchasing their first new home in specified districts, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan, distributed over two years [5]. - There is also a 50% subsidy on the actual paid deed tax for purchasing new commercial properties from October 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026 [5]. Group 5: Housing and Residency Policies - Individuals purchasing new commercial properties can apply for residency based on their property registration certificate, allowing eligible family members to relocate [6][7]. - The policy supporting multi-child families in purchasing homes has been extended until December 31, 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Wuhan's government has introduced new policies to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, particularly focusing on commercial and office properties [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The policy allows individuals purchasing newly built commercial and office properties to apply for "one household per property" residency based on their property ownership certificate [1] - Eligible spouses and children can also relocate with the primary buyer [1] - Local districts will develop additional measures related to children's education based on specific circumstances [1] Group 2: Financial Incentives - From October 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026, buyers of newly constructed commercial and office properties will receive a subsidy covering 50% of the paid deed tax [1]