Core Insights - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated strong resilience amid internal and external challenges, characterized by two "better than expected" and two "worse than expected" trends, with an overall growth rate showing a "high first, low second" trajectory [2][3][7] - For 2026, a GDP growth target of around 5% is anticipated, with a dual focus on both real and nominal GDP growth to address low inflation [2][11][18] Group 1: Economic Performance in 2025 - China's exports showed strong resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% from January to October, supported by diversified market layouts and upgraded export structures [3][4] - The capital market outperformed expectations, driven by institutional reforms and increased risk appetite, particularly in technology stocks, leading to a significant bull market [4][5] - The real estate market's recovery was slower than anticipated, with real estate investment declining by 14.7% year-on-year from January to October, exceeding the previous year's decline [5][6] - Consumer spending showed initial improvement but fell short in the latter half of the year, with retail sales of home appliances declining significantly in the last quarter [6][7] Group 2: Economic Challenges and Policy Recommendations for 2026 - The core issues for 2026 will revolve around real estate and local government debt, which are intertwined and pose both short-term and long-term challenges [8][9] - Local government financial capacity is under pressure due to declining land sales revenue, which is expected to drop from 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to below 4 trillion yuan in 2025 [8][9] - To stabilize the economy, macroeconomic policies need to be more proactive, with a focus on fiscal policy, monetary policy, and real estate policy working in concert [2][11][19] - A "dual 5" growth target is recommended, aiming for both 5% real and nominal GDP growth, to embed price recovery within growth objectives [18][20] Group 3: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - The economic growth structure is expected to shift, with traditional growth drivers weakening and new drivers, such as service consumption and infrastructure investment, gaining momentum [12][13] - Despite ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks, China's exports are projected to remain resilient, supported by new demands from emerging markets and advancements in technology [12][14] - The real estate market is anticipated to undergo a prolonged adjustment period, with potential recovery contingent on easing policies in major cities and adjustments in mortgage rates [15][16] - The government is advised to implement a comprehensive policy framework to stabilize the real estate market, including the establishment of a "Real Estate Stability Fund" and increased fiscal support for local governments [22][23]

中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶分析称，11月份，上海、成都、杭州、宁波等城市均有高端改善性 项目入市，带动核心城市新建住宅均价上涨，进而推动百城新建住宅价格环比保持结构性上涨。同时， 在高挂牌量及偏弱预期影响下，年末二手房价格下行压力有所加大。 曹晶晶指出，结合今年以来的楼市成交数据来看，当前核心城市房地产成交量维持一定规模。据该机构 统计，今年1-10月，中国重点30城一二手房成交总量同比微增0.6%，其中二手房成交量同比增长5%， 成为市场交易主力，占比已接近65%。其中，一线城市韧性突出，前10月一线城市二手房成交量同比增 长10%，深圳涨幅近20%；核心二线城市表现较好，成都前10月二手房成交量同比增长12%。 展望2026年，曹晶晶指出，房地产市场整体或将延续调整态势，市场分化也将持续，一线城市及核心二 线城市房地产市场仍会保持相对韧性。未来楼市止跌回稳将朝着城市与板块的结构性分化持续深化、从 增量扩张转向存量与增量并重转型、供需逐步匹配的方向迈进，这一过程需要政策、市场、企业等多方 面的催化因素形成合力。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 11月中国百城新房价格微升 二手房价继续走降 中新社北京12月1日 ...

临近年终，2023年中国房地产市场并未如预期般迎来强势反弹，反而呈现出"量价齐跌"的疲软态势。数据显示，今年1至9月，百强房企累计销售额约为 48501亿元，同比下降10.3%，其中9月单月销售额同比降幅更是达到24.1%。与此同时，9月份百城二手住宅价格环比下跌的城市数量激增至99个，且连续四 个月超过90个城市，这无疑给市场增添了一抹寒意。 对于未来楼市走向，业内观点分歧明显。乐观者认为，当前调整只是暂时现象，在持续的政策利好刺激下，房价终将重拾升势。因此，他们建议把握当下房 价回调的机会，逢低入市。而悲观者则认为，楼市长期调整的趋势已然形成，应趁房价尚未大幅下跌，尽快出售手中多余房产。 那么，究竟是该伺机买入还是加速抛售？早在几年前，企业家曹德旺就给出了他的看法。他直言，房子本质上是钢筋水泥的组合，其价值被严重高估。他建 议拥有多套房产的家庭，尽早出售闲置房产，否则可能面临无人问津的困境。 如今看来，房地产市场的走向似乎印证了曹德旺的预判。我们同样赞同他"尽快卖房"的观点，原因如下： 其次，购房需求正在逐步萎缩。中国的城镇化率已达到65%，与发达国家70%的平均水平差距不大，这表明城镇化进程已接近尾声， ...

Group 1 - The company recorded revenue of approximately RMB 239.8 million for the first half of the 2025/26 fiscal year, primarily from the delivery of residential units in the Yichun Honggang Guanlan Phase II project [1] - The profit attributable to the owners of the company for the same period was approximately RMB 5.9 million [1] - The company's cash and bank balance stood at approximately RMB 444 million, with a net capital to debt ratio decreasing to 27.3% as of March 31, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Chinese real estate market continues to adjust, with a 14.7% decline in development investment and a 6.8% decrease in sales area from January to October 2025 [1] - The company is experiencing a slowdown in the sales pace of residential projects, with some projects like "Yichun Honggang - Guanlan Phase II" facing sales gaps after delivery, leading to revenue fluctuations [1] - The central government is promoting measures to stabilize the market, emphasizing destocking, ensuring project delivery, and constructing quality housing through urban village renovations and stock housing acquisition [1] Group 3 - The company is aligning with government policies by focusing on core cities, adjusting sales strategies to improve cash flow, and cautiously controlling new investments to maintain liquidity [1]

Core Insights - The domestic real estate market in China has entered a significant adjustment period since Q2 2021 due to ongoing regulatory policies, with the average national housing price dropping from 11,000 yuan per square meter to 9,526 yuan, a decline of 15% [1] - In the first half of this year, the total sales of commercial housing reached only 6.6 trillion yuan, significantly lower than last year's total of 18.1 trillion yuan, indicating a sales drop of 47.3% among the top 100 real estate companies [3] - Various cities have begun to relax strict regulations in an attempt to revitalize the sluggish real estate market, with 23 cities implementing "price drop limits" and some offering cash subsidies to buyers, yet the overall market remains depressed [3] Real Estate Market Trends - The current adjustment trend in the real estate market raises concerns about four types of properties becoming difficult to sell: high-rise residential buildings, small property rights houses, properties in remote suburban areas, and properties in cities experiencing population decline [4] - High-rise residential buildings are facing challenges due to larger shared areas (25%-30% compared to 10%-15% in low-rise buildings), increased evacuation difficulties during emergencies, high demolition costs, and inconvenience during elevator maintenance, leading to concerns about their resale value [4] - Small property rights houses, once appealing due to lower prices, now face significant selling obstacles due to quality issues and lack of legal recognition, making them hard to sell in the future [6] - Properties in remote suburban areas are suffering from inadequate infrastructure and transportation issues, with price declines in these areas often exceeding those in city centers, making them likely to become "hot potatoes" in the market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing significant changes, with varying price trends across different cities, indicating a complex market environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of October 2025, the number of cities with declining new home prices is increasing, reflecting a gradual evolution rather than a sudden shift [3]. - The adjustment in supply and demand dynamics is a primary factor, with many cities experiencing increased inventory and stable or declining buyer demand [3][5]. - A shift in buyer mentality is evident, with younger generations prioritizing actual needs over the traditional view of homeownership as a necessity [4][5]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Impact - The policy environment is shifting from strict regulations to more flexible management, allowing for greater market self-regulation and price elasticity [5][6]. - The adjustment in the real estate market is expected to impact related industries such as construction materials and home furnishings, indicating a slow and gradual process of economic adaptation [6][8]. Group 3: City-Specific Performance - First-tier cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Beijing maintain relatively stable prices despite a decrease in transaction volumes due to ongoing population influx [5][6]. - Second-tier cities show varied performance, with economically strong cities like Chengdu and Wuhan remaining stable, while others face significant pressure due to population decline [5][6]. - Third and fourth-tier cities exhibit diverse trends, with some satellite cities near major urban areas remaining active, while remote areas experience price declines [5][6]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Investment - The current market environment offers more choices for buyers, allowing for a more rational approach to purchasing decisions [6][8]. - Investors are reassessing the role of real estate as an investment tool, with a shift towards valuing housing primarily for its residential function rather than as a financial asset [8][10]. - The rental market is becoming more vibrant as young people opt for renting over buying, leading to potential increases in rental yields [8][10]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The adjustment in the real estate market is viewed as a necessary process for achieving a more rational and healthy market, reducing speculative demand and benefiting genuine housing needs [9][10]. - Future price movements will depend on fundamental factors such as population trends, industrial development, and urban planning, rather than simplistic predictions of price increases or decreases [9][10]. - The expectation is for a more balanced housing market, with prices fluctuating within a reasonable range based on local economic conditions [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is still undergoing adjustments, and a stabilization requires stronger policy support [1][2][4] Market Performance - In the first ten months, new residential property sales area reached 71,982 million square meters, down 6.8% year-on-year, while sales revenue was 69,017 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6% [2] - The average price of new homes in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.5% respectively in October, with second-hand home prices dropping by 0.9%, 0.6%, and 0.7% [2] - Real estate development investment totaled 73,563 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.8 percentage points compared to previous data [2] Regional Variations - In Beijing, new residential property sales area was 8.159 million square meters, down 3.7% year-on-year, while new construction area fell by 9% [2] - In Shanghai, new residential property sales area was 13.044 million square meters, down 1.8% year-on-year, but real estate development investment increased by 1.2% [2] - In Henan, new residential property sales area and revenue fell by 2.0% and 1.9% respectively, with development investment down 8.3% [3] Market Trends - From November 1 to 24, second-hand home transactions in 20 key cities increased by 27% month-on-month, while new home transactions in 30 key cities decreased by 3% [1][3] - The second-hand market is outperforming the new home market due to factors such as better price-performance ratio, lower transaction costs, and established living conditions [3][4] Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that more policies should be introduced to stimulate both supply and demand, including increasing bank loans to developers, optimizing purchase restrictions, and reducing mortgage rates [1][6] - There is a strong urgency for new real estate support policies before the end of the year to address the ongoing market downturn [5][6] Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a stable performance in core cities while experiencing mild inventory reduction in third and fourth-tier cities by the end of 2025 [7] - The real estate policy focus in 2026 is anticipated to remain on stabilizing the market and removing unreasonable restrictions on housing consumption [8]

Core Viewpoints - The current Chinese real estate market is undergoing the deepest and longest adjustment period in history, with multiple indicators reverting to levels seen over a decade ago [5][66][77] - The sustained large losses of real estate companies will accelerate industry reshuffling and optimize the competitive landscape [5][66][77] - Future policies may be further intensified, and with China's economic resilience, the economic growth rate is expected to remain within a reasonable range, which could help shorten the current adjustment cycle [5][66][77] Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing nationwide has decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales amount has dropped by 7.9% [19][20] - The real estate development investment completion amount has fallen from a peak of 14.76 trillion yuan in 2021 to 10.02 trillion yuan in 2024, with an expected further decline to approximately 9 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a nearly 40% drop from the peak [66][50] - The average net asset return rate for listed real estate companies as of the end of Q3 2025 is -4.74%, ranking last among 31 industry sectors [45][66] Group 2: Performance of Real Estate Companies - In the first three quarters of 2025, listed real estate companies reported a total operating revenue of 1.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11% [39][66] - The operating profit for the same period was -35.85 billion yuan, marking the first recorded loss since statistics began [39][66] - The net profit and attributable net profit were -58.52 billion yuan and -64.74 billion yuan, respectively, with losses significantly widening compared to the previous year [39][66] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates a continued "bottoming" period for the real estate market, with historical comparisons suggesting that while the downward trend may be nearing its end, the timeline for recovery could still be extended [66][70] - The real estate market is expected to experience a three-phase valuation recovery process, with the current phase being the second, which requires stabilization and recovery of the fundamental market conditions [77][78] - Investment targets include stable central state-owned enterprises and regional leaders focused on first- and second-tier cities, which are expected to gain market share during the downturn [77][80]

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a downward adjustment, with prices in various cities showing a consistent decline both month-on-month and year-on-year [11][12]. Price Trends - In October, the average transaction price for new homes in Nanchang was 7,887 yuan per square meter, down from the purchase price of around 9,000 yuan per square meter in 2017, indicating a slight loss but overall price stability due to the developer Vanke and nearby school districts [3]. - The listing price in October remained high at 10,251 yuan per square meter, reflecting sellers' reluctance to lower prices despite the drop in transaction prices [3]. - Nationally, new home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by 0.8%, 2.0%, and 3.4% year-on-year, respectively, with third-tier cities facing more significant long-term adjustment pressures [5]. Market Dynamics - The decline in housing prices is characterized by "universal coverage but differentiated amplitude," with first-tier cities seeing a 0.3% decrease, second-tier cities a 0.4% decrease, and third-tier cities a 0.5% decrease month-on-month [4]. - The adjustment is driven by a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics, with a significant increase in the stock of existing homes and a shift in demand towards second-hand homes [8]. Policy Impact - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have been implemented, but their effects are uneven across different cities. The sales area and sales volume of new homes have shown signs of improvement, but third-tier cities and second-hand home prices remain constrained by high inventory and insufficient demand [8][12]. Market Segmentation - The high-end market is showing resilience, with a notable increase in the sales of larger, improvement-oriented units in major cities. For instance, in 2025, the proportion of improvement-type units sold in key cities rose to 30% [11]. - The land market is increasingly concentrated in core cities, with significant price increases for land in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities see declines [11]. Future Outlook - The current adjustment in the real estate market is viewed as a transition from rapid growth to high-quality development, necessitating a focus on core cities and refined operations by real estate companies [12]. - Despite the overall pessimism regarding real estate, there are opportunities for buyers, particularly in core cities where the cost-effectiveness of housing is becoming more apparent [12].

Core Insights - The domestic housing market has entered a long-term adjustment phase since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping over 30% [1][5][14] - Homeowners who purchased properties at high prices are now facing significant financial burdens due to declining property values and ongoing mortgage payments [3][5] Group 1: Impact on Homeowners - Ordinary people are the most affected by the decline in housing prices, as they bear the brunt of the financial losses [5][6] - Many families have invested the majority of their assets in real estate, with housing accounting for 77% of total household assets, leaving them vulnerable to market fluctuations [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Cities with weak industrial support, like Hegang, struggle to retain residents, leading to stagnant or declining property values despite low prices [6] - The uncertainty associated with 30-year mortgages poses risks, as life changes can impact borrowers' ability to repay loans over such a long period [9][10] Group 3: Behavioral Insights - The perception of homeownership as a necessity or belief can lead to financial strain, as many young people rush to buy homes without considering their financial situations [10] - Despite falling prices, potential buyers remain hesitant due to fears of further declines, indicating a psychological barrier in the market [11][13] Group 4: Long-term Trends - Historical patterns from developed countries suggest that housing price fluctuations are cyclical, and the current downturn may take a long time to stabilize [14]