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信用周观察系列:信用债哪些品种或较快修复
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-28 09:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 21 - 25, the stock and commodity markets strengthened, and the bond market adjusted significantly. Credit bonds showed vulnerability, with reasons including low yields and credit spreads weakening the cushioning effect of coupons on valuation fluctuations, and bond market adjustments and tightened liquidity leading to preventive redemptions of funds by wealth management products, resulting in selling pressure on credit bonds. However, with the central bank's support and seasonal liquidity easing at the beginning of the month, the liquidity may recover, driving the recovery of credit bonds [1][2][11]. - After the adjustment, credit spreads generally remained at low levels. Institutions may prefer credit bond varieties with better liquidity. Among them, short - term urban investment bonds, certain grades of urban investment and industrial bonds with specific maturities had relatively high trading activity during the adjustment period, and their valuation recovery opportunities are worthy of attention. Long - term bonds with maturities over 5 years may face greater valuation fluctuation risks [2][3][17]. - In the bank capital bond market, yields rose across the board from July 21 - 25, and credit spreads widened. After the over - adjustment, there are opportunities. The yields of 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds have become more attractive, and insurance institutions have increased their allocation. Short - term and lower - rated bank capital bonds such as 3 - year AA and 2 - year AA - bank capital bonds may be relatively advantageous choices [5][6][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Yields Up Across the Board, Sci - tech Innovation Bonds Underperformed - In the primary market, from July 1 - 27, 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds was slightly positive. The issuance sentiment weakened, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times decreasing, and the proportion of 2 - 3 times increasing. The issuance term changed little, and the issuance rate remained low, with rates for different terms decreasing compared to June [29][31]. - In the secondary market, yields of urban investment bonds rose across the board. The adjustment of previously "over - bought" sci - tech innovation bond components was greater, restricting the growth of the sci - tech innovation bond ETF scale. The trading activity of urban investment bonds decreased, and the buying sentiment declined sharply [11][12][34]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Both Issuance and Trading Reduced Maturities, and the Proportion of High - rated Trading Recovered - From July 1 - 27, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times decreasing and that of 2 - 3 times increasing. The proportion of long - term issuance over 5 years decreased significantly, and the issuance rate changed little overall [39][41]. - In terms of trading, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds weakened significantly, with the TKN proportion decreasing and the low - valuation proportion dropping. The trading slightly reduced maturities, and the proportion of high - rated trading recovered [42]. 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds: Long - term Large - bank Bonds Performed Weaker, and Trading "Increased Volume with Falling Prices" - From July 21 - 25, 2025, several banks issued secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, due to increased market risk appetite and tightened liquidity, the yields of bank capital bonds rose across the board, with long - term large - bank secondary capital bonds performing weaker. Credit spreads also widened across the board, and the trading volume increased while the trading sentiment weakened significantly. The trading was mainly concentrated in medium - and long - term varieties with better liquidity, and the trading of city commercial bank capital bonds shifted towards high - grade bonds [45][48][51]. - Regarding TLAC bonds, the spreads between 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds and TLAC bonds were analyzed, indicating that 10 - year TLAC bonds were more cost - effective at present. For commercial financial bonds, the credit spread of 3Y AAA commercial financial bonds reached the lower limit of the central position [51][55].
渤海证券研究所晨会纪要(2025.07.23)-20250723
BOHAI SECURITIES· 2025-07-23 01:13
Fixed Income Research - The core viewpoint indicates that from July 14 to July 20, the issuance guidance rates for credit bonds showed divergence, with high-grade rates rising and mid-to-low grades declining, with overall changes ranging from -5 BP to 3 BP [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds slightly decreased on a month-on-month basis, with a reduction in corporate bonds and directional tools, while enterprise bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds saw an increase [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with enterprise bonds and directional tools showing an increase, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds experienced a decrease [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds continued to decline, with all varieties seeing a decrease in transaction amounts [2] - The overall yield of credit bonds decreased, and the credit spreads for medium-term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds narrowed [2] - The report suggests that despite the potential for fluctuations, the long-term yield is expected to continue on a downward trend, and investors should consider increasing allocations during adjustments while focusing on the trend of interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [2] Industry Research - The report highlights that the central urban work conference indicates a shift in urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, which will serve as a new policy foundation [3] - In the real estate sector, ongoing optimization of policies is expected to support the market's stabilization, with a focus on high-quality central and state-owned enterprises, as well as high-quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees [3] - The report notes that the recent launch of a large hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, will significantly increase the demand for special steel, particularly in high-altitude and corrosive environments [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price support from domestic policies, while the lithium market faces supply surplus pressure, limiting price increases [5] - The report anticipates that the rare earth market will benefit from improved export demand, with June exports showing a significant increase of 32.02% month-on-month [5][6] - The overall strategy maintains a neutral rating for the steel industry and a positive rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zhongjin Gold [6]
利率窄幅震荡下信用利差小幅压缩
Xinda Securities· 2025-07-19 14:25
Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the volatile market, credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. Interest - rate bond yields slightly declined, while credit bond yields dropped more significantly. Credit spreads mostly decreased slightly, with the 3Y variety showing a relatively larger decline [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads generally compressed slightly. Spreads of external ratings AAA, AA +, and AA platforms decreased by 1BP respectively. Spreads also declined when classified by administrative levels [2][9][15]. - Most industrial bond spreads decreased. Central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads declined, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads decreased, and private - enterprise real - estate bond spreads increased. Spreads of coal, steel, and chemical bonds also decreased [2][18]. - The yields of secondary and perpetual bonds followed the decline of certificates of deposit, with the short - to - medium - term performing relatively strongly [2][21]. - The excess spreads of 5Y industrial bonds and 3Y urban investment bonds slightly decreased [2][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Credit Bonds Outperformed Interest - Rate Bonds in the Volatile Market - Interest - rate bond yields slightly declined. The yields of 1Y, 5Y, and 7Y China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, and 1BP respectively, while the 3Y and 10Y remained flat [2][5]. - Credit bond yields dropped more significantly. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y credit bonds decreased to varying degrees [2][5]. - Credit spreads mostly decreased slightly, with the 3Y variety showing a relatively larger decline. Rating spreads and term spreads showed obvious differentiation [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bond Spreads Slightly Compressed - By external ratings, the spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA platforms decreased by 1BP respectively, with different changes in different regions [9]. - By administrative levels, the spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - level platforms decreased by 2BP, 1BP, and 1BP respectively, with different changes in different regions [15]. 3. Most Industrial Bond Spreads Decreased - Real - estate bonds: Central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads decreased by 2 - 4BP, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads decreased by 1BP, and private - enterprise real - estate bond spreads increased by 7BP [2][18]. - Other industrial bonds: The spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA coal bonds decreased by 2BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively; the spreads of AAA and AA + steel bonds decreased by 2BP and 4BP respectively; and the spreads of all levels of chemical bonds decreased by 3BP [2][18]. 4. The Yields of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds Followed the Decline of Certificates of Deposit, with the Short - to - Medium - Term Performing Relatively Strongly - 1Y secondary and perpetual bonds: Yields decreased by 2 - 3BP, and spreads compressed by 1 - 2BP [21]. - 3Y secondary and perpetual bonds: The yields of secondary capital bonds decreased by 2BP, and spreads decreased by 2 - 3BP; the yields of perpetual bonds decreased by 3 - 4BP, and spreads decreased by 3 - 4BP [21]. - 5Y secondary and perpetual bonds: The yields of secondary capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and spreads compressed by 0 - 1BP; the yields of AA + and above perpetual bonds decreased by 1BP, and spreads increased by 1BP, while the yields of AA perpetual bonds decreased by 4BP, and spreads decreased by 2BP [21]. 5. The Excess Spreads of 5Y Industrial Bonds and 3Y Urban Investment Bonds Slightly Decreased - AAA 3Y industrial perpetual bond excess spreads remained at 3.82BP, at the 1.32% quantile since 2015; 5Y industrial perpetual bond excess spreads decreased by 0.86BP to 7.65BP, at the 4.18% quantile since 2015 [24]. - Urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bond excess spreads decreased by 0.65BP to 3.75BP, at the 0.29% quantile; urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bond excess spreads increased by 0.09BP to 10.21BP, at the 10.93% quantile [24]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary and perpetual spreads, and industrial/urban investment perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. Historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [28]. - Industrial and urban investment bond credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [28]. - Specific calculation methods and sample selection criteria are provided, including how to calculate spreads, which samples to select, and which samples to exclude [31].
行业配置模型回顾与更新系列
2025-07-16 06:13
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around various industries and their operational models, particularly focusing on investment strategies and market dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. Most models tested across various industries show limited effectiveness, indicating that current strategies may not outperform previous ones [1] 2. The operational efficiency of certain industries is hindered by low activity levels, leading to poor returns and potential misjudgments in trading [2] 3. Instability in institutional models can significantly impact overall results, causing potential losses during market fluctuations [3] 4. Industries face challenges in achieving new highs, which may lead to a reduction in adaptability to changing market conditions [4] 5. The accumulation of industry indices relies on performance growth, making significant collapses rare [5] 6. As indices grow, the relative drawdown decreases, suggesting a stable testing environment for investment strategies [6] 7. Advanced analytical strategies may not cover as many industries but can effectively identify suitable investment opportunities [7] 8. Timing issues in market signals pose challenges, as it is difficult to predict how long it will take for prices to return to previous highs [8] 9. The operational timeframes of various industries lack clear benchmarks, complicating performance assessments [9] 10. Differentiation strategies can effectively navigate uncertain market conditions, especially when historical patterns are not reliable [10] 11. The effectiveness of operational strategies may be lower than those derived from industry-standard configurations, highlighting the importance of volatility management [11] 12. The overall strategy framework may evolve beyond linear combinations, incorporating various technical approaches for enhanced robustness [12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes the need for continuous adaptation and reassessment of strategies in response to market changes, highlighting the dynamic nature of investment environments.
日本财务大臣加藤胜信:收益率由市场决定,将不予置评。将寻求适当的政策,以维持市场信任。日本和美国的关税谈判将继续寻求达成协议。我将出席在南非召开的G20会议,将与其他G20国家进行开诚布公的讨论。
news flash· 2025-07-15 02:10
Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, stated that interest rates will be determined by the market and will not provide further comments [1] Group 1 - The government will seek appropriate policies to maintain market trust [1] - Ongoing tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States aim to reach an agreement [1] - Kato will attend the G20 meeting in South Africa for open discussions with other G20 countries [1]
本金小是不是更适合赌一把?资本市场不会因为你钱少而善待你!
雪球· 2025-07-08 10:38
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a structured asset allocation strategy over chasing high returns with minimal capital, highlighting the risks associated with speculative investments and the benefits of a disciplined approach to investing [3][4][30]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Many investors seek high returns by speculating on market trends, often leading to poor outcomes due to lack of information advantage [8][9]. - Successful investment requires identifying leading stocks and making significant investments, but this is challenging for average investors [10][11]. - Leveraging can amplify gains but also significantly increase the risk of total loss, as illustrated by the case of LTCM, which faced catastrophic losses due to excessive leverage [14][15][16]. Group 2: Sustainable Returns - A balanced asset allocation can yield sustainable annual returns between 5% and 15%, utilizing a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities to mitigate risks [18][19][20]. - The article presents a comparison of investment outcomes based on different annual return scenarios, demonstrating that consistent, lower returns can outperform volatile high returns over time [21][22][24]. Group 3: Capital Accumulation - Increasing investment capital primarily comes from enhancing personal skills and career growth, which can lead to higher income and investment capacity [26][28]. - The article suggests that focusing on personal development and becoming an industry expert can provide better financial leverage than merely seeking high-risk investments [29][30]. Group 4: Investment Methodology - The "three-part method" proposed by Xueqiu promotes long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across different assets and market conditions [33].
信用利差再度压缩,二永债表现强势
Xinda Securities· 2025-07-05 14:57
Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Report's Core View - Credit bonds return to strength, with yields of 3Y and above varieties generally declining by around 5BP. Interest rates of interest rate bonds fluctuate and decline, and credit spreads mostly decline except for some high-grade short-duration varieties [2][5]. - Credit spreads of urban investment bonds decline across the board, with spreads of each variety decreasing by about 4BP [2][9]. - Most credit spreads of industrial bonds decline, while those of mixed-ownership real estate bonds slightly increase [2][18]. - Yields of secondary and perpetual bonds decline across the board, and their overall performance is stronger than that of ordinary credit bonds [2][23]. - Excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds are generally stable, while those of 3Y urban investment perpetual bonds decline [2][25]. Summary by Directory 1. Credit bonds return to strength, with yields of 3Y and above varieties generally declining by around 5BP - Interest rate bond yields fluctuate and decline. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y Guokai bonds decline by 3BP, 2BP, 1BP, and 4BP respectively, and the 10Y yield remains flat [2][5]. - Credit bond yields return to a downward trend. Yields of 3Y and above varieties generally decline by around 5BP, and credit spreads mostly decline except for some high-grade short-duration varieties [2][5]. - Rating spreads and term spreads mostly remain flat or decline [5]. 2. Credit spreads of urban investment bonds decline across the board - Credit spreads of external rating AAA, AA+, and AA platforms all decline by about 4BP. Spreads of most AAA-level platforms decline by 3 - 4BP, AA+ by 3 - 5BP, and AA by 3 - 6BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district-level platforms all decline by 4BP [2][16]. 3. Most credit spreads of industrial bonds decline, while those of mixed-ownership real estate bonds slightly increase - Credit spreads of central and local state-owned real estate bonds decline by 4BP, those of mixed-ownership real estate bonds increase by 2BP, and those of private real estate bonds increase by 13BP [2][18]. - Credit spreads of coal bonds at all levels decline by 3BP, those of AAA and AA+ steel bonds decline by 3BP and 4BP respectively, and those of chemical bonds at all levels decline by 4 - 5BP [2][18]. 4. Yields of secondary and perpetual bonds decline across the board, and their overall performance is stronger than that of ordinary credit bonds - Yields of secondary and perpetual bonds follow the decline of certificate of deposit rates. Spreads of medium and short-term high-grade varieties compress significantly [2][23]. - Specifically, the yield of 1Y AAA- secondary capital bonds declines by 9BP, and the spread compresses by 6BP. Yields of other grades decline by 8BP, and spreads compress by 4 - 5BP [23]. 5. Excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds are generally stable, while those of 3Y urban investment perpetual bonds decline - The excess spread of industrial AAA3Y perpetual bonds increases by 0.01BP to 3.82BP, and that of AAA5Y remains flat at 8.51BP [2][25]. - The excess spread of urban investment AAA3Y perpetual bonds declines by 2.38BP to 3.76BP, and that of AAA5Y increases by 0.10BP to 9.91BP [25]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market-wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary and perpetual spreads, and credit spreads of urban investment/industrial perpetual bonds are calculated based on ChinaBond medium and short-term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bonds data [27]. - Credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated by subtracting the yield of the same-term government bond from the medium-term valuation of the individual bond, and then the arithmetic average method is used to calculate the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban investment [31]. - Samples of medium-term notes and public corporate bonds are selected for industrial and urban investment bonds, and guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds are excluded [31].
美国财长贝森特:根据收益率,美国的融资需求可能会增加。
news flash· 2025-07-03 17:43
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that the country's financing needs may increase based on yield trends [1] Group 1 - The statement suggests a potential rise in financing requirements for the U.S. government [1]
2025年7月信用债市场展望:信用债ETF扩容,有何机会与风险?
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-03 15:14
Group 1 - The macro environment for credit bonds remains favorable in July 2025, with a focus on new supply and demand changes, particularly the expansion of credit bond ETFs [3] - Credit bond supply is not expected to improve significantly, but structural changes are emerging, with a notable increase in the issuance of technology innovation bonds [3] - The overall yield of various credit bonds is at a relatively low level since 2024, with credit spreads showing differentiation, particularly in the short and medium to long-term segments [3][26] Group 2 - The credit bond market is expected to experience a strong but volatile performance in July, supported by the recovery of wealth management scale and the expansion of ETFs, which may further improve demand for credit bonds [3] - A stable coupon strategy is recommended, with a focus on opportunities and risks arising from the expansion of credit bond ETFs [3] - The report suggests a 2-3 year short to medium-term strategy while actively exploring the value of medium to high-grade credit bonds in the 3-5 year range, particularly 4-5 year bonds [3] Group 3 - The characteristics of credit bond ETF constituent bonds include a predominance of high ratings (AA+ and above), with a higher proportion of central and state-owned enterprises [7] - Recent performance of constituent bonds has been strong, with increased liquidity and a relative decline in yields and credit spreads compared to non-constituent bonds [7] - Strategies for credit bond ETF expansion include early positioning in constituent bonds before listing and focusing on related non-constituent bond opportunities [7][5] Group 4 - In June 2025, the issuance and net financing of traditional credit bonds increased, with a total issuance of 1.304 trillion yuan and net financing of 252.7 billion yuan [13] - The net financing of urban investment bonds expanded further, while the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds also saw a significant increase [13] - The report highlights that the credit bond yield overall declined in June, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones [19][27]
信用分析周报:继续关注2%以上的高票息信用债-20250629
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-06-29 14:10
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The logic of being bullish on credit bonds with a yield of over 2% remains unchanged this week. It is recommended to moderately lower the credit quality and extend the duration, especially focusing on medium- to long-term high-coupon urban investment bonds and bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with a yield of over 2% and good liquidity [2][43]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset-backed securities) was 153.6 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 110.9 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance was 427.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 150.7 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 273.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.8 billion yuan. The net financing of asset-backed securities was 8.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.3 billion yuan [7]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 49.5 billion yuan, an increase of 32.5 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 48.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 97.3 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 55.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.2 billion yuan [7]. - In terms of issuance and redemption quantity, the issuance of urban investment bonds increased by 4, and the redemption decreased by 17; the issuance of industrial bonds decreased by 21, and the redemption remained unchanged; the issuance of financial bonds decreased by 6, and the redemption decreased by 16 [9]. 1.2 Issuance Cost - The issuance rates of AA industrial bonds, AA+ and AAA financial bonds increased significantly, while the issuance rate of AA+ industrial bonds decreased. The issuance rates of other bonds with different ratings changed by no more than 4BP [15]. - Specifically, the issuance rate of AA+ financial bonds increased by 63BP, mainly due to the high issuance costs and large issuance scales of bonds such as "25 Chouzhou Commercial Bank Tier 2 Capital Bond 01" and "25 Chengde Bank Perpetual Bond 01". The issuance rate of AAA financial bonds increased by 20BP, mainly due to the 30 billion yuan issuance of "25 Minsheng Bank Perpetual Bond 01" with an issuance rate of 2.3%. The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds increased by 18BP, mainly due to the high issuance rates of bonds such as "25 Jingjiang Beichen MTN003" and "25 Zhongtou 01". The issuance rate of AA+ industrial bonds decreased by 15BP, mainly due to the large number of bonds issued with a coupon rate below 2.3% [15]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Trading Volume - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset-backed securities) decreased by 129.9 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 293.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 4 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 432.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.3 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 511.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 90.5 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset-backed securities was 26.5 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7 billion yuan [16]. - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of traditional credit bonds decreased overall, while the turnover rate of asset-backed securities increased. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.89%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 2.49%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 3.54%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points. The turnover rate of asset-backed securities was 0.75%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [17]. 2.2 Yield - The yield of credit bonds fluctuated slightly this week, with the long - end performing better than the medium - and short - ends. Specifically, the yields of AA+, AAA - and AAA bonds with a maturity of over 10 years decreased by 2BP, 3BP and 1BP respectively compared to last week. The yields of AA+, AAA - bonds with a maturity of 3 - 5 years and AA+ bonds with a maturity of 5 - 7 years decreased by less than 1BP. The yields of credit bonds with other ratings and maturities increased by 0 - 4BP [21]. - By product type, taking the AA+ 5 - year bonds of each product as an example, the yields of different products showed mixed trends. Among industrial bonds, the yields of privately - issued industrial bonds and extendible industrial bonds decreased by 4BP and increased by 1BP respectively compared to last week. Among urban investment bonds, the yield of AA+ 5 - year urban investment bonds increased by 1BP. Among financial bonds, the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds decreased by 1BP and increased by 1BP respectively. Among asset - backed securities, the yield of AA+ 5 - year asset - backed securities increased by less than 1BP [22]. 2.3 Credit Spread - Overall, the credit spreads of most industries fluctuated slightly this week, and the credit spread of the AA+ electronics industry contracted significantly. Specifically, the credit spread of the AA real estate industry widened by 14BP; the credit spreads of the AA+ electronics and electrical equipment industries contracted by 62BP and 9BP respectively, and the credit spread of the steel industry widened by 12BP; the credit spread of the AAA electrical equipment industry contracted by 9BP. The fluctuations of credit spreads of bonds in other industries and ratings were no more than 5BP [23]. 2.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - By maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds within 5 years widened slightly, while those over 5 years compressed slightly. Specifically, the credit spread of 0.5 - 1 - year urban investment bonds was 43BP, an increase of 2BP; the credit spread of 1 - 3 - year urban investment bonds was 44BP, an increase of 2BP; the credit spread of 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds was 63BP, an increase of 1BP; the credit spread of 5 - 10 - year urban investment bonds was 53BP, a decrease of 1BP; the credit spread of over 10 - year urban investment bonds was 43BP, a decrease of 4BP [27]. - By region, the credit spreads of AA urban investment bonds in Shanxi and AAA urban investment bonds in Jilin widened significantly, while the credit spread of AA urban investment bonds in Liaoning compressed by 6BP. The fluctuations in other regions were relatively small [28]. 2.3.2 Industrial Bonds - The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed mixed trends this week, and the 5 - year industrial bonds performed well overall. Specifically, the credit spreads of 5 - year AAA -, AA+ and AA privately - issued industrial bonds compressed by 1BP, 4BP and 4BP respectively, and the credit spreads of 5 - year AAA - and AA extendible industrial bonds compressed by 2BP and 3BP respectively. The credit spreads of industrial bonds with other maturities and different subject ratings mostly widened compared to last week, with a fluctuation range of 0 - 3BP [31]. 2.3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - The credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds mostly widened slightly this week. By product and maturity, for bank Tier 2 capital bonds, the credit spreads of AAA -, AA+ and AA bonds with a maturity of 1 year widened by 3BP, 2BP and 2BP respectively, and the credit spreads of AAA -, AA+ and AA bonds with a maturity of 10 years widened by 2BP, 2BP and 2BP respectively. For bank perpetual bonds, the credit spreads of AAA -, AA+ and AA bonds with a maturity of 1 year widened by 3BP, 3BP and 4BP respectively, and the credit spreads of AAA -, AA+ and AA bonds with a maturity of 10 years widened by 2BP, 2BP and 2BP respectively [35]. 3. This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - Due to the concentrated disclosure of bond follow - up rating reports near the end of June, there were many credit negative events this week. - Convertible bond negative sentiment: 16 issuers had their ratings downgraded, and the ratings of 16 convertible bonds they issued were also downgraded; 2 issuers were put on the watch list, and the 2 convertible bonds they issued were also put on the watch list [38]. - Other credit negatives: 3 issuers had their ratings downgraded, 37 bond issues had their ratings downgraded, and 10 bond issues had their implied ratings downgraded. Guizhou Shuicheng Economic Development Zone High - tech Development Investment Co., Ltd. was put on the issuer watch list, and its "18 Shuicheng High - tech Bond" was put on the bond watch list [40]. 4. Investment Suggestion - The central bank achieved a net injection of 126.72 billion yuan this week, and DR001 decreased from 1.35% at the beginning of the week to 1.29%. - Overall, the credit spreads of most industries fluctuated slightly, the credit spread of the AA+ electronics industry contracted significantly. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds within 5 years widened slightly, while those over 5 years compressed slightly. The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed mixed trends, and the 5 - year industrial bonds performed well. The credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds mostly widened slightly. The yields of credit bonds fluctuated slightly, with the long - end performing better than the medium - and short - ends. - It is recommended to continue to focus on bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of banks such as Minsheng Bank, Bohai Bank and Hengfeng Bank, and urban investment bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Shaanxi and Tianjin, such as Yunnan Construction Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., Xianyang Urban Development Group Co., Ltd. and Tianjin Bohai State - owned Assets Management Co., Ltd., which have relatively high static coupon rates [43].