证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 下半年信用债怎么配 [Table_Title2] 2025 信用月报之六 [Table_Summary] 展望下半年，信用债投资重点把握三要素，一是资金面和利率走 势，二是信用债供需格局，三是品种性价比。 下半年，利率或延续震荡下行。资金面宽松+利率震荡的组合，信用 债票息价值凸显，有助于信用利差更长时间内维持低位。同时，由 于票息对估值波动的兜底作用弱化，信用债估值波动可能加大。 供需格局方面，供给端，产业债增量对冲城投债缩量，下半年信用 债整体供给或难放量，同时由于产业债发行利率整体低于城投债，较 高票息资产供给依旧稀缺。需求端，理财规模往往在季初 7月增幅较 大，而 8-12 月规模增幅转弱，配置需求随之回落。理财平滑净值手 段需在今年 12 月末整改 100%，或抑制其对超长久期品种（波动 大）、低评级中长久期品种（流动性弱）的需求。 配置节奏上，7 月供需格局对信用债比较有利，信用利差也还有小幅 压缩空间，8 月或是信用债逐步止盈的时机，尤其是低评级中长久 期、超长债品种，此时信用利差 ...

农商行大幅买入。6月26日利率债二级交易，大行-327亿（净卖出1Y以内的124亿），股份行-184亿，城商行-283亿，农商行+418亿；券商自营+114亿，险资 +156亿，债基+24亿。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达210.63亿元，创成立以来新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，公司债ETF近15天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得15.38亿元净流入，合计"吸金"54.95亿元，日均净流入达3.66亿元。 截至2025年6月27日 09:30，公司债ETF(511030)上涨0.02%，最新价报106.09元。拉长时间看，截至2025年6月26日，公司债ETF近1年累计上涨2.18%。 5月末，开放式债基规模6.78万亿，当月增长2219亿，仍低于上年末的6.84万亿；货基规模已达14.4万亿，创历史新高，5月存款利率下调促进了货基规模增 长。 利率债看窄幅震荡，重点关注央行资金面行为，一旦收紧可能调整10BP。短期刻意宽松格局可能未变，但很难更宽松。继续看多收益率2%以上长久期城投 债及银行资本债，信用拉久期下沉，继续看好长久期资本债，看多港股银行。 平安基金公司债（511030）合同约定了在T1日内补 ...

证券研究报告 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 联系人 宏观要闻：上海将实施八项金融开放举措，有助持续提升跨境贸易和投融资便利化 水平。2025 年 5 月消费持续改善，投资稳定增长。5 月社会消费品零售总额 4.1 万 亿元，同比增长 6.4%，增速环比加快 1.3pct。1-5 月全国固定资产投资（不含农户） 19.2 万亿元，同比增长 3.7%，增速较 1-4 月份放缓 0.3pct。美国联邦储备委员会 6 月 18 日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25% 至 4.50%之间不变，此次是美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 中观高频数据：消费市场结构性回暖：乘用车市场延续高增长，截至 6 月 15 日当周 乘用车厂家日均零售/批发同比分别+22.7%/+38.0%；工业开工率分化明显：截至 6 月 19 日，当周沥青开工率同比+1.0pct，但纯碱、PVC 当周开工率同比回落；地产 链修复动能不足：截至 6 月 20 日，当周 30 城商品房合计成交面积同比-4.4%，但 成交套数同比+1 ...

[Table_Summary] 近两周，利率债震荡下行，机构延续信用债利差挖掘思路，长久期品 种成为焦点，10 年信用利差大幅压缩。其中，6 月第二周 5 年、10年 信用利差分别收窄 6bp、8bp，6 月第三周 10 年利差继续收窄 6bp。 谁在买长久期信用债？从机构行为来看，近期基金和保险主要在买入 7-10 年信用债，其他资管产品对长久期信用债的需求也明显增加。基 金 6 月以来加大了长久期信用债的交易配置力度，尤其是 7-10 年这一 期限，净买入占比从 5 月的 2%升至 9%，近两周净买入量分别为 47、 57 亿元。此外，6 月第二、三周，保险净买入 7-10 年的规模也较大， 分别为 20、31 亿元，均占当周净买入总规模的 32%。其他资管产品 5 月仅净买入 9 亿元 5-30 年信用债，6 月以来增加至 139 亿元。 银行理财则在 6 月减少了 7 年以上长信用债的买入规模，或为跨季做 准备。5 月理财分别净买入 27、20 亿元 7-10 年、10-30 年信用债，占 当月净买入规模的7%、5%。6月以来，理财对长信用债的配置需求明 显转弱，7-10年、10-30年净买入规模降至 ...

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 22 日 ——银行负债情况点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 四大行一般存款压力有多大？ 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 近一年，四大行一般存款增速持续较低。2024 年 4 月利率自律机制要求银行业禁止 通过手工补息的方式高息揽储，并于 2024 年 4 月底前完成整改。与此同时，四大行 一般存款增速由 2024 年 3 月末的 10.2%快速降至 2024 年 6 月末的 4.4%。2025 年 5 月，大行进一步明显下调了存款挂牌利率，当月四大行一般存款下降了 0.2 万亿元， 而中小型银行一般存款增加了 0.42 万亿元。大行与中小型银行存款价差使得大行一 般存款增速可能持续较低，毕竟客户对收益愈加敏感。截至 2025 年 5 月末，四大行 一般存款增速 5.8%，明显低于中小型银行的 9.4%，四大行一般存款压力较大。 四大行对同业存款及同业存单等同业负债的依赖明显上升，靠同业负债支撑债券投 资的高增长。2 ...

[Table_Title] 6 月信用，中高评级 4Y 骑乘 [Table_Title2] 2025 信用月报之六 [Table_Summary] 5 月，利率震荡市叠加资金中枢下移打开套息空间，机构追逐票息收 益较为丰厚的信用品种，基金成为主要买盘，带动信用利差全线收 窄，其中 3-5 年中低等级表现占优。城投债 AA 及以下 3-5 年收益率 下行 12-16bp，信用利差收窄 12-18bp。 展望 6月，存款利率下调或对理财规模季节性变动影响较小，信用债 需求端面临理财规模季末下降，供给端迎来发行和净融资环比上 升。需求端，2022-2024 年 6 月银行理财规模分别下降 0.8 万亿元、 1.18万亿元和1.16万亿元。供给端，由于更新年报数据的原因，5月 积压的部分发债需求将在 6 月释放，同时科创债审核便利也会推升产 业债发行。 同时，无论是信用利差还是套息空间，信用债相比利率债的性价比 趋弱。截至 5 月 30 日，城投债各评级 5Y 以内信用利差均处于 2021 年以来 1%-11%的低分位水平。6 月信用债供需格局不利，叠加信用 债性价比下降，或导致信用利差震荡偏走扩。 5月，低评级 3 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 18 日 信用利差被动压缩 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 本周（5/12-5/16）市场概览： 1）一级市场：本周信用债发行量、偿还量、净融资额环比上周均有所增加；本周 AAA 主体城投债、AA+主体产业债发行利率有所上升，其余各券种各评级债券发行 利率均有不同程度下行。 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周增加 3350 亿元，传统信用债换手率较上 周整体上行；本周信用债收益率整体呈现短端下行，长端上行的态势；本周不同期 限的城投债信用利差均有不同程度压缩；本周产业债信用利差整体呈压缩态势；本 周不同评级和期限的银行资本债信用利差整体压缩，少部分期限和品种小幅走扩。 ——信用分析周报（2025/5/12-2025/5/16） 投资要点： 3）负面舆情：欣捷投资控股集团有限公司所发行的"23 欣捷 01"展期；武汉当代 科技投资有限公司所发行的"H20 科技 1"展期；西安曲江文化控股有限公司主体列 入观察名单，其所发行的"20 曲文控债 01"、"21 曲文控债 01"债项列入观察名单； 北京声迅电子股份有 ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 保险减持银行资本债，怎么看？ [Table_Title2] 大金融观察系列之十一 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: ►近期保险为何净卖出银行资本债？ 2024 二季度以来保险配置行为发生变化。2021 年-2023 年保险机构大规模增 持银行资本债，但 2024 年二季度开始，保险持续减持银行资本债。此外，保 险机构是典型的配置盘，逢调加仓、上涨时减持，因此保险机构每日净买入其 他类债券（主要是银行资本债）规模与 5Y AAA-二级资本债信用利差走势整体 呈现正相关。不过 2023 年四季度以来，多次出现两者相关系数为负的情况。 原因可能在于三个方面。第一，银行资本债近几年收益率持续下行，相对性价 比偏低。第二，近几年地方政府债供给充足，保险机构更加青睐此类资产，加 大了配置力度。第三，新金融工具相关会计准则下，保险机构资产端和利润端 的波动加大，对于银行资本债这类估值波动幅度很大，且必须被纳入 FVTPL 账户管理的资产更为谨慎。 今年以来，保险对于银行资本债的配置意愿不强，尤其 3 ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 5 月，理财整改下的占优策略 [Table_Title2] 2025 信用月报之五 [Table_Summary] 4 月初美国关税政策如期落地，不过幅度远超市场预期，避险情绪发 酵，10年国债收益率两个交易日内下行 18bp。后续的 4月 8-30日， 多空力量进入相对平衡状态，长端利率呈现震荡走势。而信用债整体 需求偏弱，除了 1Y 信用利差收窄，其余品种大多走扩。 今年理财平滑净值手段的整改，对各品种信用利差中枢的变化产生 重要影响。理财需要在 2025 年 6 月末整改 50%，12 月末整改 100%，这将影响理财对信用债的投资偏好，对超长久期品种（波动 大）、低评级中长久期品种（流动性弱）要求更高的风险溢价，从而 导致这些品种信用利差中枢抬升。 对比城投债各评级各期限 2025年 1-4月和 2024年的信用利差各分位 数值，1Y 和 3Y 信用利差中枢基本接近，但 5Y 及以上信用利差中枢 均有不同幅度的抬升。其中 AAA 和 AA+ 5Y 1/2 分位数抬升 8-9bp， 10Y ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 774 billion yuan, leading to a marginal easing of the capital market. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond active bond continued to fluctuate around the 1.65% central level, pricing in an expected interest rate cut of about 30BP. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond may still return above 1.7% this year [2][42]. - Overall, the credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to focus on short - duration moderate credit - risk exposure for coupon income and also pay attention to the convex points in the 3 - 5Y term structure to increase returns. For industrial bonds, the short - end credit spreads compressed slightly while the long - end widened slightly. It is advisable to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads fluctuated slightly, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure of AA and AA+ bank secondary capital bonds [2][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 435.5 billion yuan this week, a week - on - week increase of 255.1 billion yuan. The total issuance was 751.5 billion yuan, up 299.4 billion yuan week - on - week, and the total repayment was 316 billion yuan, up 44.3 billion yuan week - on - week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 36.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 11.3 billion yuan [6]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 30.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 188.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 60.5 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 216.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 231.8 billion yuan [6]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - Except for the issuance rates of AAA financial bonds and AA+ urban investment bonds, which increased, the issuance rates of other rated credit bonds decreased to varying degrees. Specifically, the issuance rates of AA - rated urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 3BP and 12BP respectively compared with last week; the issuance rate of AA+ - rated industrial bonds decreased by 11BP; and the issuance rates of AA+ - rated urban investment bonds and AAA - rated financial bonds increased by 4BP and 7BP respectively compared with last week [14]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 11.7 billion yuan week - on - week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 254.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 12.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 363.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.4 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 369.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 2.11 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 billion yuan [15]. - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated slightly compared with last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; that of industrial bonds was 2.16%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points; that of financial bonds was 2.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 percentage points [16]. 3.2.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different terms and ratings increased to varying degrees this week. In AA+ - rated credit bonds, the yields of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y increased by more than 5BP; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the yield of 7 - 10Y increased by more than 5BP. Except for the yield of AA+ credit bonds below 1Y, which decreased by less than 1BP compared with last week, the yields of other term and rating credit bonds increased by no more than 5BP [20][21]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. In AA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of non - bank finance and public utilities widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively compared with last week; in AA+ - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of electronics and pharmaceutical biology widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of leisure services, national defense and military industry, household appliances, and automobiles widened by 5BP, 5BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively. In addition, the credit spread of the AA+ chemical industry narrowed by 5BP, and that of the AAA real estate industry narrowed by 7BP. The credit spreads of different ratings in other industries fluctuated by less than 5BP compared with last week [24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened this week, with the long - end widening more than the short - end. By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most regions widened, while those in a few regions narrowed slightly. The top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated, AA+ - rated, and AAA - rated urban investment bonds were listed respectively [28][29]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed a pattern of slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end this week. It is recommended to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [32]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The credit spreads of bank capital bonds fluctuated slightly this week, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. The overall pattern was slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure [36]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - On March 28, 2025, AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. announced its plan to delist from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and transfer to the National Equities Exchange and Quotations. This led to a downgrade of the implied ratings of a total of 65 bonds issued by AVIC Industry Finance and its subsidiaries [40]. - Other negative public opinions included the downgrade of the implied ratings of "17 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" and "16 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" issued by Chaoyang Bank Co., Ltd., the extension of "20 Tianqian 02" issued by Hubei Tianqian Asset Management Co., Ltd., and the extension of "H20 Xinyuan 1" and "H21 Xinyuan 1" issued by Xinyuan (China) Real Estate Co., Ltd. [2][44].