证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 利差调整后，或存补涨机会 ——信用分析周报（2025/8/18-2025/8/22） 投资要点： 本周（8/18-8/22）市场概览： 1）一级市场：本周传统信用债发行量、净融资额环比上周有所增加，偿还量环比上 周有所减少；资产支持证券净融资额环比上周减少 167 亿元；本周 AA 产业债、AA+ 金融债加权平均发行利率下降，其余不同评级不同券种的发行成本有所上升。 联系人 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周增加 811 亿元；换手率方面，本周信用债 换手率较上周有涨有跌。本周不同期限的信用债收益率均有不同程度上行，部分信 用债收益率调整幅度超过 10BP。总体来看，本周不同行业不同评级的信用利差大多 有不超过 5BP 的调整，少数行业信用利差有所压缩。具体来看，本周 AA 传媒、AAA 家用电器信用利差较上周分别走扩 5BP、5BP，AA+休闲服务、机械设备信用利差 较上周分别压缩 5BP、6BP。除此以外，其余各行业各评级的债券信用利差波动幅 度均不到 5BP。 3）负面舆情：本周共有 11 个主体的 97 只债项 ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 信用债哑铃策略 [Table_Title2] 信用周观察系列 [Table_Summary] 8月 11-15日，股市走强压制债市表现，普信债收益率全线上行，但信 用利差大多被动收窄。银行资本债表现弱于普信债，收益率上行 2- 10bp，信用利差大多走扩，与同期城投债相比，4-5Y大行资本债收益 率多上行 5-8bp。 目前信用债收益率、利差均处于历史低位，叠加债市不确定性较多、 波动加大，机构整体偏谨慎，尤其是对长久期信用债。一方面，7 月 中下旬以来基金对长久期信用债的需求偏弱，最近三周合计净卖出 47 亿元 5-10 年信用债。另一方面，5 年以上信用债二级成交占比也明显 下降，其中 5 年以上信用债成交占比从 7 月中旬 15.4%的偏高位置持 续降至 5.9%，而 1 年以内成交占比由 29.4%升至 36%。 在此背景下，信用债哑铃策略或占优，即同时持有票息较高、低波动 的防守型品种，以及流动性好的高波动博弈型品种。其中，防守型品 种首选 1-3 年中低等级城投债，由于票息较高，在债 ...

Rating of the industry investment The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core views of the report - In July, credit spreads first narrowed and then widened, with institutional behavior amplifying the market trends. Looking ahead to August, the liquidity of funds is expected to remain stable, but the growth of wealth - management scale will slow down, potentially increasing the volatility of credit bonds. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on credit bonds with good liquidity. The new tax regulations may enhance the coupon - rate attractiveness of credit bonds and draw in some incremental funds. Additionally, it is advisable to pay attention to the repair opportunities of medium - to - low - rated 2 - 3 - year and high - rated 3 - 5 - year credit bonds, as well as the investment opportunities of bank capital bonds with good liquidity [1][2][19] Summaries based on relevant catalogs 1. Seize repair opportunities and maintain liquidity 1.1 Credit bonds: focus on the repair market of medium - to - low - rated 2 - 3 - year and high - rated 3 - 5 - year bonds - In July, the long - end interest rate fluctuated upward, and credit bonds experienced increased volatility. Credit spreads first narrowed and then widened. In the early part of the month, loose liquidity and the recovery of wealth - management scale led to a narrowing of credit spreads. In the middle, the significant increase in the scale of Sci - tech Bond ETFs boosted the trading of credit bonds. However, in the late part, due to the adjustment of the bond market and tightened liquidity, wealth - management products preemptively redeemed funds, causing funds to sell credit bonds in the secondary market, leading to a widening of credit spreads. By the end of the month, the central bank's efforts to maintain liquidity led to a decline in interest rates and a repair of credit spreads [11][12] - In August, the growth of wealth - management scale is expected to slow，reducing the demand for credit bond allocation. As both yields and credit spreads are at low levels, the volatility of credit bonds may increase. It is recommended to focus on credit bonds with good liquidity [19] - The new tax regulations will increase the coupon - rate attractiveness of credit bonds, potentially attracting incremental funds. The varieties with relatively large adjustments in late July may experience a repair market. It is advisable to focus on the repair opportunities of medium - to - low - rated 2 - 3 - year and high - rated 3 - 5 - year bonds, especially those within 5 years [2][24] - During the adjustment period in late July, some high - rated individual bonds with good liquidity were sold first, resulting in a significant increase in yields. These bonds have relatively large repair space and faster repair speed. Specific individual bonds can be screened through brokerage data [25] 1.2 The impact of the new tax regulations on bank capital bonds may be limited - Theoretically, the new tax regulations reduce the cost - effectiveness of newly issued bank capital bonds relative to newly issued interest - rate bonds and general credit bonds. However, in practice, the main holders of bank capital bonds are bank self - operations, bank wealth - management products, and public funds. Bank self - operations often hold these bonds for business cooperation purposes, while bank wealth - management products and public funds are more focused on trading, so they may not consider the impact of taxes in the short term [31] - If the pricing of newly issued bank capital bonds after August 8 includes the tax premium of the new regulations, it may present a good investment opportunity as the high liquidity of new bonds may drive the narrowing of the spread between new and old bonds. The new regulations may also enhance the willingness of institutions to allocate old bonds, potentially leading to a duration - based market. Liquid 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds are the best choice for capital - gain speculation [31][32] 2. Urban investment bonds: sentiment in both primary and secondary markets declined, and spreads of medium - and short - duration bonds narrowed - In July, the supply of urban investment bonds remained weak, with positive but year - on - year decreasing net financing. The overall issuance sentiment was high but gradually weakened. The proportion of issuance multiples above 3 times decreased from over 60% in the first three weeks to around 50% in the last two weeks. The proportion of bonds with a maturity of over 5 years slightly increased, while the weighted average issuance coupon rate continued to decline [37] - Provincial performance varied, with most provinces having net inflows and about one - third still having net outflows. Shandong had the largest net financing, while Jiangsu had the largest net outflow [38] - Urban investment bonds showed differentiated performance in July. The yields of 1 - year bonds slightly decreased, while those of bonds with a maturity of 3 years and above increased. The credit spreads of bonds with a maturity of 5 years and within generally narrowed, while those of long - duration bonds mostly widened [40] - In the secondary market, the buying sentiment of urban investment bonds was fair, but it weakened slightly compared to June. The proportion of TKN transactions decreased from 75% to 71%, and the proportion of low - valuation transactions decreased from 74% to 64%. The trading of medium - and long - duration bonds was stable, and the proportion of low - grade bonds increased [44] 3. Industrial bonds: supply continued to increase, and low - rated and long - duration bonds performed better - In July, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The net financing of the public utilities, non - bank finance, food and beverage, and building decoration industries was relatively large. The issuance sentiment weakened significantly in late July [48] - The proportion of long - duration bonds with a maturity of over 5 years decreased significantly. The issuance interest rates of bonds within 1 year and 3 - 5 years decreased slightly, while that of bonds over 5 years increased slightly. Compared with urban investment bonds, the average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds were lower [50] - In July, the yields of industrial bonds showed differentiated performance, and most spreads narrowed. Low - rated and long - duration bonds with coupon - rate advantages performed better. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year AA+ and AA and below medium - term notes generally decreased, while those of most medium - to - high - grade varieties increased. Credit spreads generally narrowed [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 21 - 25, the stock and commodity markets strengthened, and the bond market adjusted significantly. Credit bonds showed vulnerability, with reasons including low yields and credit spreads weakening the cushioning effect of coupons on valuation fluctuations, and bond market adjustments and tightened liquidity leading to preventive redemptions of funds by wealth management products, resulting in selling pressure on credit bonds. However, with the central bank's support and seasonal liquidity easing at the beginning of the month, the liquidity may recover, driving the recovery of credit bonds [1][2][11]. - After the adjustment, credit spreads generally remained at low levels. Institutions may prefer credit bond varieties with better liquidity. Among them, short - term urban investment bonds, certain grades of urban investment and industrial bonds with specific maturities had relatively high trading activity during the adjustment period, and their valuation recovery opportunities are worthy of attention. Long - term bonds with maturities over 5 years may face greater valuation fluctuation risks [2][3][17]. - In the bank capital bond market, yields rose across the board from July 21 - 25, and credit spreads widened. After the over - adjustment, there are opportunities. The yields of 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds have become more attractive, and insurance institutions have increased their allocation. Short - term and lower - rated bank capital bonds such as 3 - year AA and 2 - year AA - bank capital bonds may be relatively advantageous choices [5][6][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Yields Up Across the Board, Sci - tech Innovation Bonds Underperformed - In the primary market, from July 1 - 27, 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds was slightly positive. The issuance sentiment weakened, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times decreasing, and the proportion of 2 - 3 times increasing. The issuance term changed little, and the issuance rate remained low, with rates for different terms decreasing compared to June [29][31]. - In the secondary market, yields of urban investment bonds rose across the board. The adjustment of previously "over - bought" sci - tech innovation bond components was greater, restricting the growth of the sci - tech innovation bond ETF scale. The trading activity of urban investment bonds decreased, and the buying sentiment declined sharply [11][12][34]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Both Issuance and Trading Reduced Maturities, and the Proportion of High - rated Trading Recovered - From July 1 - 27, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times decreasing and that of 2 - 3 times increasing. The proportion of long - term issuance over 5 years decreased significantly, and the issuance rate changed little overall [39][41]. - In terms of trading, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds weakened significantly, with the TKN proportion decreasing and the low - valuation proportion dropping. The trading slightly reduced maturities, and the proportion of high - rated trading recovered [42]. 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds: Long - term Large - bank Bonds Performed Weaker, and Trading "Increased Volume with Falling Prices" - From July 21 - 25, 2025, several banks issued secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, due to increased market risk appetite and tightened liquidity, the yields of bank capital bonds rose across the board, with long - term large - bank secondary capital bonds performing weaker. Credit spreads also widened across the board, and the trading volume increased while the trading sentiment weakened significantly. The trading was mainly concentrated in medium - and long - term varieties with better liquidity, and the trading of city commercial bank capital bonds shifted towards high - grade bonds [45][48][51]. - Regarding TLAC bonds, the spreads between 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds and TLAC bonds were analyzed, indicating that 10 - year TLAC bonds were more cost - effective at present. For commercial financial bonds, the credit spread of 3Y AAA commercial financial bonds reached the lower limit of the central position [51][55].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The Sci - tech Innovation Bonds have witnessed a booming trading volume due to the significant increase in the scale of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs. However, they are currently "overbought", and their ETF component bonds have low cost - performance. It is recommended to focus on the spread opportunities of non - component bonds and non - Sci - tech Innovation Bonds compared to Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF component bonds. [1][2][15] - In the volatile market, holding 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds may be a more flexible choice. Short - duration credit enhancement can consider 3 - year AA perpetual bonds and 2 - year AA - bank capital bonds. [3][5] Summary According to the Directory 1. Urban Investment Bonds: Single - month Net Financing May Turn Positive, and High - grade Bonds Prevail in the Sci - tech Innovation Bond Market - Urban investment bond net financing has increased, and single - month net financing may turn positive. From July 1 - 20, 2025, the issuance was 271.5 billion yuan, the maturity was 239.2 billion yuan, and the net financing was 32.3 billion yuan, but it decreased by 62.1 billion yuan year - on - year. [24] - In the primary market, the issuance enthusiasm remains high, and the proportion of full - scale multiples above 3 times remains at 60%. Many municipal platforms have refreshed the issuance term length, and the issuance interest rates of all terms are at historical lows. [24] - In the secondary market, the yields of urban investment bonds generally declined, and the credit spreads mostly narrowed. High - grade 3 - year and low - grade 10 - year bonds performed better. Sci - tech urban investment bonds performed prominently, with an average low - valuation of nearly 5bp. [27][30] 2. Industrial Bonds: Both Issuance and Trading Have Reduced Duration - In July, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. From July 1 - 20, 2025, the issuance was 507.1 billion yuan, and the net financing was 225.2 billion yuan. The net financing scale of the food and beverage, public utilities, and non - banking finance industries was relatively large. [31] - The proportion of long - term issuance over 5 years decreased significantly, and the issuance interest rates of all terms declined. In terms of trading, the buying sentiment recovered, the trading duration decreased slightly, and the proportion of high - grade trading decreased slightly. [31][33] 3. Bank Capital Bonds: Yields Declined Across the Board, and Trading Sentiment Warmed Up - From July 14 - 18, 2025, the yields of bank capital bonds declined across the board, and the spreads mostly narrowed. 2 - 3 - year bank capital bonds and low - grade perpetual bonds performed better, while 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds performed weakly. [19][36] - In terms of trading, the trading sentiment of bank capital bonds warmed up. The secondary capital bond trading extended the duration, while the perpetual bond trading slightly reduced the duration. The trading sentiment of city commercial banks also warmed up significantly, with the secondary capital bond trading extending the duration and spreading to low - grade bonds. [39] - Regarding TLAC bonds, the 10 - year TLAC bonds are more cost - effective than secondary capital bonds at present. [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the allocation demand for credit bonds from funds, other product categories, and insurance has increased. Credit spreads have mostly narrowed or remained flat due to strong demand, with 1Y varieties showing strong resistance to decline and lower-rated bonds performing better than higher-rated ones [1][10][11]. - Currently, both credit bond coupons and credit spreads are at low levels, and the market trend is more dependent on institutional allocation demand. It is necessary to closely monitor institutional behavior, buying sentiment, and the potential compression space of credit spreads [1][12]. - Overall, the supply - demand pattern in July is favorable for credit bonds, and there is still a small amount of compression space for credit spreads. Specific strategies include focusing on short - to medium - duration bonds with credit rating sinking, and high - grade 10Y bonds have relatively large potential compression space for credit spreads [3][22]. - In the bank capital bond market, although the spread protection is thin, there is still compression space. Long - duration bonds of large banks and 2 - 3 year bonds of small and medium - sized banks are recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Credit Bond Market Overview - From July 1 - 11, funds' net purchase of credit bonds reached 88.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 39.1 billion yuan. Other product categories and insurance had net purchases of 31.3 billion and 15.2 billion yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of 7.8 billion and 5 billion yuan [1][11]. - From July 7 - 11, with the convergence of funds and the rotation of negative factors, the bond market fluctuated upwards. Credit bonds, due to strong allocation demand, saw most credit spreads narrow or remain flat [10]. 3.2. Factors Affecting Credit Bond Market 3.2.1. Institutional Behavior - Fund net trading volume of credit bonds is a sensitive indicator related to credit spread trends. Maintaining a daily net purchase of over 500 million yuan helps keep credit spreads low. From July 7 - 10, the rolling 5 - day net purchase was 1 - 1.4 billion yuan, but it dropped to 740 million yuan on the 11th, and was below 500 million yuan on the 10th and 11th [2][12]. 3.2.2. Buying Sentiment - The TKN成交占比 is used to measure buying sentiment. A stable TKN成交占比 above 75% indicates good buying sentiment. From July 7 - 11, as yields rose, the TKN成交占比 declined, with three days below 70%, but the rolling 5 - day average was around 70% [2][16]. 3.2.3. Potential Compression Space of Credit Spreads - By observing the position of credit spreads relative to the mean - 2 times the standard deviation, it is found that currently, each variety still has a small amount of compression space, with 10Y varieties having relatively large potential [3][22]. 3.3. Specific Bond Types Analysis 3.3.1. Urban Investment Bonds - From July 1 - 13, urban investment bonds had a net financing of 28.8 billion yuan. The primary market issuance sentiment was good, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times remaining at 61%. The issuance rate of long - term bonds decreased significantly, with the 10 - year average dropping to 2.14% [30][32]. - In the secondary market, short - term bonds were resistant to decline, while the yields of 3 - 10Y bonds increased. The trading activity decreased, and Shenzhen Metro had many high - valuation transactions [35][38]. 3.3.2. Industrial Bonds - From July 1 - 13, industrial bond issuance and net financing increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened slightly, and the proportion of long - term issuance over 5 years decreased significantly. The buying sentiment in the secondary market weakened, and the trading duration increased [40][42]. 3.3.3. Bank Capital Bonds - From July 7 - 13, several banks issued secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, yields generally rose, spreads showed differentiation, and low - grade, short - duration bonds performed better. Currently, credit spreads are at relatively low levels, but there is still compression space [45][46]. 3.3.4. TLAC Bonds - By comparing the yields of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds with TLAC bonds, the spreads are analyzed. As of July 11, 2025, the 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y spreads were 3.1bp, 3.8bp, and 1.4bp respectively, indicating that 10 - year TLAC bonds are more cost - effective [53]. 3.3.5. Commercial Financial Bonds - Since 2021, the valuation of 3Y AAA commercial financial bonds has generally followed the trend of interest - rate bonds, with a stable spread center. As of July 11, the credit spread was 14bp, at a relatively low level [57].

Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided in the report - Core View: In the second half of 2025, credit bond investment should focus on three elements: the trend of funds and interest rates, the supply - demand pattern of credit bonds, and the cost - effectiveness of different varieties. Interest rates may continue to decline in a volatile manner, making the coupon value of credit bonds prominent, but the valuation volatility may increase. The overall supply of credit bonds may be difficult to expand, and the configuration demand may weaken from August to December. Different investment strategies are recommended for different periods and varieties [1][18] Group 2: 1. Steady Coupon as the Foundation, Grasp the Trading Rhythm 1.1. Short - to Medium - Duration Credit Spread Compression for Coupon Income, Seize Phased Opportunities in Long - Duration Bonds - H1 2025 Review: The credit bond market experienced an increase in yields and a widening of credit spreads from January to mid - March, followed by a rotation of the market to medium - to long - duration and then ultra - long - duration bonds from April to June. The main factors in the first quarter were the tight funds and the change in wealth management scale. In mid - to late March, the bond market recovered, driven by supply shrinkage and the cost - effectiveness of varieties. From April to June, the market was affected by interest rate fluctuations and the shift of the funds' central point [12][13] - June 2025 Highlights: The long - duration credit bond market was activated, mainly due to the compression of short - to medium - duration credit spreads to historical lows and the increased demand from funds, insurance, and other products. The scale of credit bond ETFs increased by 7.7 billion yuan in June, which also drove the demand for some long - duration component bonds [14][16] - H2 2025 Outlook: Interest rates may continue to decline in a volatile manner. The supply of credit bonds may be difficult to expand, with the decrease in urban investment bonds offset by the increase in industrial bonds. The wealth management scale usually increases significantly in July but weakens from August to December. The rectification of wealth management's net - value smoothing methods may suppress the demand for ultra - long - duration and low - rated medium - to long - duration bonds. It is recommended to increase positions in July, take profits in August, and reduce credit bond positions from August to December, switching to inter - bank certificates of deposit and interest - rate bonds [18][19][21] - Variety Cost - Effectiveness: The 10Y high - grade credit bonds have relatively large potential for credit spread compression. As of June 30, the credit spreads of 10Y high - grade medium - term notes are still 8 - 11bp higher than the average. Short - to medium - duration credit spread compression may still be the dominant strategy. Bonds with a yield of 2.0% - 2.2% in the 1 - 3 - year AA and AA(2) categories have high allocation value. High - grade 5 - year bonds can be considered when the credit spread adjusts to the mean + 1 standard deviation [22][30][35] 1.2. Grasp the Trading Rhythm of Bank Capital Bonds 1.2.1. Difficult for Bank Capital Bond Supply to Expand in H2 2025 - H1 2025 Review: The supply of bank capital bonds increased slightly. The net financing of secondary capital bonds increased year - on - year, while that of perpetual bonds decreased. The city commercial banks increased their issuance scale, while the supply from rural commercial banks was weak [39] - H2 2025 Outlook: The demand for new capital bonds from the Big Four banks may decrease after the capital injection in June. Although small and medium - sized banks may increase issuance if the cost is low, the overall net supply is difficult to expand [40] 1.2.2. Narrower Bandwidth for Band - Trading in Bank Capital Bonds, Reverse Trading May Yield Higher Win - Rates - H1 2025 Review: The yields of bank capital bonds showed differentiation. The yields of 1 - 5Y large - bank bonds generally increased, while those of 10Y secondary capital bonds and 1 - 4Y small - and medium - bank bonds mostly decreased. The credit spreads of most varieties compressed, with short - duration and low - grade bonds performing better [44] - H2 2025 Outlook: The bank capital bonds still have trading opportunities following interest - rate bonds, but the credit spread compression space is limited. Reverse trading (increasing positions during adjustments) may have a higher win - rate. The 4 - year and 6 - year bonds have higher riding yields and better holding experiences [50][51] Group 3: 2. Urban Investment Bonds: Negative Net Financing in H1, a Historical First - H1 2025 Supply: The supply of urban investment bonds shrank, with negative net financing for the first time in history. From January to June, the issuance was 2.9464 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 382.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 71.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 218.5 billion yuan, mainly due to the tightening of bond - issuing policies [55] - Issuance Characteristics: The overall issuance sentiment was good, with a high proportion of over - subscribed issuances. The proportion of 3 - 5 - year issuances increased, while that of within - 1 - year issuances decreased. The issuance interest rates decreased overall, with greater declines in short - to medium - term bonds [55][56] - Regional Differences: The net financing performance of urban investment bonds varied by region. Most regions had negative net financing, mainly affected by district - level and park - level platforms. Guangdong and Shandong had relatively high positive net financing, while Jiangsu, Hunan, and Chongqing had large negative net financing [58] - Yield and Credit Spread: The yields of urban investment bonds generally decreased in H1, with high - grade long - duration and AA - low - grade bonds performing better. The credit spreads of all maturities and grades narrowed, with low - grade bonds performing more strongly [62][63] - Secondary Market: Since mid - March, the buying interest in the secondary market has been high, with a high proportion of TKN transactions and low - valuation transactions. There was a trend of increasing duration in transactions, and the proportion of AA(2) low - grade transactions remained high [66] Group 4: 3. Industrial Bonds: Supply Increase, Longer Durations in Both Primary and Secondary Markets - H1 2025 Supply: The issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. From January to June, the issuance was 3.8718 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 309.2 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1.0788 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40 billion yuan. The new regulations on science and technology innovation bonds contributed to the increase in issuance [18] Group 5: 4. Bank Capital Bonds: Low - Rated Bonds Perform Better, Weak Trading Sentiment - H1 2025 Performance: The yields of bank capital bonds showed differentiation, with short - duration and low - rated bonds performing better. The credit spreads of most varieties compressed, with 1 - 4Y small - and medium - bank capital bonds and 1 - 3Y AA - perpetual bonds having significant spread compression [44] - Trading Rhythm: The trading bandwidth of large - bank long - duration capital bonds has been narrowing, making band - trading more difficult. Reverse trading may be a better strategy. The 4 - year and 6 - year bonds have higher riding yields [48][51]

Group 1 - The latest scale of corporate bond ETFs reached 21.063 billion yuan, marking a new high since its establishment [3] - In terms of net fund inflow, corporate bond ETFs have seen continuous inflows over the past 15 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 5.495 billion yuan, and an average daily net inflow of 366 million yuan [3] - Agricultural commercial banks significantly increased their purchases, with a net buying of 41.8 billion yuan on June 26, while large banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks had net sales of 32.7 billion yuan, 18.4 billion yuan, and 28.3 billion yuan respectively [3] Group 2 - As of the end of May, the scale of open-end bond funds was 6.78 trillion yuan, with an increase of 221.9 billion yuan that month, still below the end of the previous year at 6.84 trillion yuan; money market fund scale reached 14.4 trillion yuan, a historical high, driven by a reduction in deposit interest rates [3] - The interest rate bonds are expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with a focus on the central bank's liquidity behavior, which may adjust by 10 basis points if tightened; the short-term deliberately loose pattern may remain unchanged but is unlikely to become more accommodative [3] - The company bond fund (511030) has a contract stipulating coupon replenishment on T1 day, which is more efficient compared to other eight companies that have T2 day replenishment agreements, resulting in lower replenishment costs [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - Shanghai will implement eight financial opening measures to enhance cross-border trade and investment facilitation [12] - In May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with a month-on-month acceleration of 1.3 percentage points [12] - From January to May, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 19.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous four months [12] Group 2: Consumer and Production Trends - The passenger car market continues to show high growth, with average daily retail and wholesale numbers increasing by 22.7% and 38.0% year-on-year, respectively [17][19] - The film market saw a decline in box office revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% as of June 20 [19] - The construction chain shows insufficient recovery momentum, with the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities down by 4.4% year-on-year, although the number of transactions increased by 12.8% [18][61] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Agricultural product prices are under pressure, with the average wholesale price of pork down by 17.8% year-on-year, while the average price of six key fruits increased by 7.0% [77][79] - Industrial products generally declined, with the average price of thermal coal down by 29.9% year-on-year, and the average price of rebar down by 13.1% [85][87] Group 4: Bond Market and Institutional Behavior - As of June 20, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.36%, 1.50%, 1.64%, and 1.84%, respectively, showing a decline compared to June 13 [100] - The average duration of long-term bond funds has risen to approximately 5.0 years, reflecting a shift in institutional strategies towards long-duration investments [110][115] - The average duration of credit bond funds remains stable at around 2.3 years, indicating a focus on structural opportunities as credit spreads compress [111][115]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two weeks, interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward. Institutions continued to explore credit - bond spreads, with long - duration bonds becoming the focus. The 10 - year credit spread has significantly compressed. The trading sentiment of credit bonds is quite extreme. Considering the usual significant decline in wealth - management scale in the last week of June, credit bonds may experience short - term fluctuations. Accounts with unstable liability ends are not advised to chase the rising market but can make arrangements during adjustments. Accounts that have already invested in long - duration credit bonds earlier do not need to rush to take profits as there is still some allocation demand in July. Additionally, there is still room for the spread of long - duration credit bonds to compress [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 City Investment Bonds - Net financing remains weak. From June 1 - 22, 2025, city investment bonds issued 3781 billion yuan, matured 3767 billion yuan, and only achieved a net financing of 14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 791 billion yuan. The primary issuance sentiment declined, with the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times dropping by 14 percentage points to 62%. The proportion of issuances with a term of over 3 years further increased to 45% [31] - Short - end issuance rates continued to reach new lows. In June, the issuance rates of city investment bonds continued to decline. The rates for bonds with a term of less than 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and 3 - 5 years decreased by 10bp, 7bp, and 15bp respectively compared to May, reaching 1.76%, 2.19%, and 2.51% [33] - In the secondary market, long - end bonds performed strongly, with yields of many terms reaching new lows. From June 16 - 20, yields of city investment bonds across all terms declined. The decline in medium - and short - end yields was limited, mostly within 3bp, while most long - end bonds with a term of over 5 years declined by more than 5bp, and credit spreads also compressed [36] - From the broker transaction data, bonds of all terms were traded at a discount to valuation, with long - term bonds over 5 years performing the best. The daily transactions of city investment bonds were still active, with daily transactions often exceeding 800, and the average discount to valuation per trading day was around 2bp. The average discount to valuation of long - term bonds over 5 years was 2.8bp [41] 3.2 Industrial Bonds - In June, the issuance and net - financing scale of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. From June 1 - 22, industrial bonds issued 6187 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1345 billion yuan, and achieved a net financing of 3050 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1425 billion yuan. The comprehensive, public - utility, and non - bank financial industries had relatively large net - financing scales [43] - The issuance sentiment weakened. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times decreased from 38% to 30%, while the proportion of 2 - 3 times increased from 24% to 30% [43] - The proportion of medium - and long - term issuances increased. Since June, the proportion of industrial bonds with a term of less than 1 year decreased from 40% in May to 31%, while the proportions of 1 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years (including 5 years but excluding 3 years), and over 5 years increased to 40%, 18%, and 12% respectively [43] - From the broker transactions, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds was high. The TKN proportion remained at 79%, and the proportion of discount - to - valuation transactions increased from 65% to 66%. The transaction duration lengthened, with the proportion of transactions over 5 years increasing by 5 percentage points to 19% [45] 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - In the primary market, from June 16 - 22, 2025, Xi'an Bank and Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank each issued a 20 - billion - yuan 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bond. The issuance rate of Xi'an Bank was 2.30%. Minsheng Bank issued a 300 - billion - yuan 5 + N - year perpetual bond with an issuance rate of 2.30% [48] - In the secondary market, yields of bank capital bonds declined across the board, and spreads showed differentiation. 10 - year secondary capital bonds and medium - and long - term perpetual bonds performed better. Specifically, yields of 1 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds generally declined by 2 - 4bp, with credit spreads fluctuating narrowly. The 10 - year secondary capital bond yield declined by 5bp, and the spread narrowed by 2bp. Bank perpetual bonds outperformed secondary capital bonds, with most credit spreads narrowing by 0 - 4bp [48] - From the broker transactions, from June 16 - 20, the number of bank capital bond transactions increased significantly month - on - month, and the trading sentiment was good. The TKN proportion was above 68%. The proportions of discount - to - valuation transactions of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds increased by 2 and 1 percentage points respectively to 70% and 77%. In terms of the term structure, state - owned bank transactions were still concentrated in long - duration bonds with good liquidity. The proportion of 4 - 5 - year secondary capital bond transactions of state - owned banks increased by 3 percentage points to 54%, while that of perpetual bonds decreased by 4 percentage points to 60%. Joint - stock bank transactions reduced the duration [51] - Regarding TLAC bonds, by subtracting the average yields of 3 + 1, 5 + 1, and 10 + 1 TLAC bonds from the yields to maturity of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds, the spreads of secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were obtained. As of June 20, 2025, the spreads of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were 3.5bp, 7.5bp, and 4.8bp respectively, indicating that the 10 - year TLAC bond was more cost - effective at present [54] - For commercial financial bonds, taking the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond as an example, since 2021, its spread has mostly fluctuated between 10 - 30bp, with a stable spread center at 20bp. As of June 20, the credit spread of the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond was 14bp, at a relatively low level compared to the spread center [58]