Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In October, credit bonds outperformed interest rate bonds, with credit spreads narrowing across the board, and medium- to long-term, low-rated varieties showing significant recovery. The buying power of credit bonds increased, and the trading volume share of 1-3 year and 3-5 year bonds rose. [1][10][11] - Looking ahead to November, the central bank's bond purchases provide a strong market stability expectation, and interest rates are more likely to decline. However, the cost-effectiveness of short- to medium-term credit spreads in credit bonds is relatively low, which may limit their market performance. [2][18] - In November, credit bonds may underperform interest rate bonds. Accounts with unstable liability ends can appropriately reduce their credit bond positions and adjust to interest rate and Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds of large banks, which have good liquidity. For accounts with stable liability ends, they can prefer medium- to high-rated 3-5Y steeper entities to increase holding returns through riding the yield curve. [3][26][30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Grasp the trading opportunities of 4-5 year Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds of large banks, and prefer medium- to high-rated 3-5Y steeper entities - In October, the bond market was affected by Sino-US tariff shocks and bond market redemption fee rate regulations, with interest rate fluctuations intensifying. Credit bonds outperformed interest rate bonds, and credit spreads narrowed across the board. The buying power of credit bonds increased significantly, and the trading volume share of 1-3 year and 3-5 year bonds rose. [10][11] - Products with stable liability ends may be the important buyers of credit bond duration varieties in October. On the one hand, the opening scale of amortized cost method bond funds was relatively large in October, and some of them increased their investment in 3-5 year medium- to high-rated credit bonds. On the other hand, 3-5 year low-rated credit bonds were also bought by securities company asset management products with a 1-3 year closed period. [15] - Looking ahead to November, the central bank's bond purchases provide a strong market stability expectation, and interest rates are more likely to decline. However, the cost-effectiveness of short- to medium-term credit spreads in credit bonds is relatively low, and the potential compression space is small. [18] - In November, credit bonds may underperform interest rate bonds. Accounts with unstable liability ends can appropriately reduce their credit bond positions and adjust to interest rate and Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds of large banks, which have good liquidity. For accounts with stable liability ends, they can prefer medium- to high-rated 3-5Y steeper entities to increase holding returns through riding the yield curve. [26][30] 2. Urban investment bonds: Net financing turned positive, and medium- to long-term, low-rated bonds showed significant recovery - In October, the net financing of urban investment bonds turned positive but decreased year-on-year. The issuance sentiment was good, and the proportion of issuance multiples above 3 times increased week by week. The weighted average issuance interest rates of urban investment bonds declined across the board, with a larger decline in the medium- to long-term. [33] - The performance of net financing in each province was differentiated in October, with most provinces in a net inflow state. The yields of urban investment bonds declined across the board, and the medium- to long-term, low-rated varieties that had experienced significant adjustments earlier showed significant recovery. [35][37][40] - From the perspective of broker transactions, the buying sentiment of urban investment bonds warmed up in October. The overall TKN ratio and low valuation ratio increased month-on-month. In the last week of October, the number of transactions of medium- to long-term urban investment bonds increased significantly, and the AA(2) rating remained relatively active in transactions. [44] 3. Industrial bonds: Supply increased, and yields declined across the board - In October, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased significantly year-on-year. The net financing scale of the comprehensive and public utilities sectors was relatively large, and the net financing of the non-bank financial sector was also above 300 million yuan. The issuance sentiment of industrial bonds improved significantly starting from the third week of October. [47] - In terms of term structure, the issuance proportion of long-term industrial bonds over 5 years increased in October, and the issuance interest rates of 1-3 year and 3-5 year bonds increased, while those of other terms declined. [48] - The yields of industrial bonds declined across the board in October, and the spreads also narrowed. The 5-year varieties performed better. The yields of public bonds in each industry declined by 3-17bp, and the medium- to long-term varieties performed better. [50][53] 4. Bank capital bonds: Net financing decreased year-on-year, and trading sentiment improved significantly No relevant content provided in the given text for this part.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the buying power of credit bonds may not increase significantly due to uncertainties, reduced cost - performance of some varieties, and potential challenges from the yet - to - be - released official draft of public fund redemption fees. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long - duration varieties and to focus on short - to - medium - term varieties with good liquidity, such as 1 - 3 - year AA and AA(2) urban investment bonds [2][14]. - Bank capital bonds fluctuated narrowly in the secondary market from October 20 - 24, 2025, and performed weaker than general credit bonds of the same term. However, 1 - year short - duration bank capital bonds have fallen out of price - performance and have a coupon advantage, and some bonds in 1 - 2 - year AA and 2 - 3 - year AA+ and above bank capital bonds have absolute yields above 2% and are worthy of attention [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Yields Down Across the Board, Sentiment Spreading to the Long - End - In October 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds was repaired. From October 1 - 26, the issuance was 350.8 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 39.9 billion yuan. The subscription sentiment was good, and the proportion of subscriptions over 3 times increased to 64%. The proportion of long - term issuance decreased, and the issuance interest rate decreased slightly [32]. - In the secondary market from October 20 - 25, yields declined across the board, and sentiment spread to the medium - and long - term. The long - term activity increased slightly, with 90 transactions for bonds over 5 years, 15 more than the previous week [35][38]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Net Financing Increased Significantly Year - on - Year, Both Issuance and Transaction Sentiment Improved - From October 1 - 26, 2025, industrial bond issuance was 588.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 226.4 billion yuan, and net financing was 240.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 171.2 billion yuan. The issuance sentiment improved, and the proportion of full - field multiples over 3 times increased from 20% to 30% [40]. - The proportion of long - duration varieties issued increased. The proportion of bonds over 5 years issued increased from 3% in September to 6%. The buying sentiment in the secondary market improved, with the TKN ratio increasing from 72% to 77%, and the low - valuation ratio increasing from 62% to 63% [40][42]. 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds: Yields Fluctuated Narrowly, Transaction Sentiment Remained Weak - From October 20 - 24, 2025, Weihai Bank issued 2 billion yuan of 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds at an issuance rate of 2.60%, and Qingdao Bank issued 1.5 billion yuan of 5 + N - year perpetual bonds (issuance rate not yet announced). - In the secondary market, yields fluctuated narrowly, and 3 - 5 - year small - and medium - sized bank secondary capital bonds performed better. Compared with medium - and short - term notes of the same term, bank capital bonds performed weaker, and relative spreads generally widened [23][45]. - The transaction sentiment remained weak. The TKN ratios of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds increased slightly to 63% and 57%, respectively, but the low - valuation ratios both dropped below 50% [48].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in market risk appetite, influenced by ongoing US-China tariff issues, has led to a recovery in bond market sentiment, resulting in a general decrease in credit bond yields [1][2]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The credit bond market has seen a general downtrend in yields, with credit spreads narrowing. From October 13 to 17, yields on municipal bonds with a maturity of 10 years or less fell by 1 to 6 basis points, while credit spreads narrowed by 1 to 7 basis points [2]. - Institutions are currently favoring short to medium-term bonds with higher coupon rates and a safety margin, particularly 3-year municipal bonds and 2 to 4-year bank capital bonds. Demand for long-term bonds has not recovered in parallel [1][2][3]. Institutional Behavior - Fund demand for credit bonds with maturities of 3 years or more remains weak. In contrast to the period from mid-March to early April, where funds increased their holdings of medium to long-term credit bonds, the recent weeks have seen a shift back to shorter maturities [3][4]. - The demand for credit bonds is expected to decline further in the fourth quarter due to a decrease in the growth of wealth management products, which typically see a larger increase in the first half of the year [4][5]. Future Outlook - The credit bond market is anticipated to continue a pattern of oscillation and consolidation in the fourth quarter, with institutions likely to reduce their credit bond positions due to a weak supply-demand structure [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that, given the current supply-demand imbalance, credit bonds are unlikely to yield excess returns compared to interest rate bonds, and liquidity issues may exacerbate risks during interest rate hikes [5][6]. Investment Strategies - Institutions are advised to maintain a cautious approach, focusing on short-duration bonds with higher coupon rates to identify structural opportunities. Specific recommendations include targeting municipal bonds with maturities of 1 to 3 years and yields above 2.2% [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the repeated Sino - US tariff issues from October 13 - 17, the market risk appetite declined, and the bond market sentiment continued to improve. Credit bond yields generally decreased, and credit spreads mostly narrowed. Institutions remained cautiously bullish on credit bonds, preferring high - coupon and relatively safe varieties. However, due to factors such as seasonal patterns and the pending public fund fee regulations, this round of credit bond recovery may not be as smooth as the previous one. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on medium - and short - duration coupon - bearing credit bonds for both offense and defense [1][2]. - For general credit bonds, 1 - 3 - year AA and AA(2) urban investment bonds are recommended, which balance liquidity and coupon. For bank capital bonds, it is advisable to choose medium - and short - duration hedging varieties and avoid rushing to increase duration [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Structural Recovery, Market Favors 1 - 3 - Year AA(2) Varieties - **Primary Market**: In October, the net financing of urban investment bonds remained low, but the issuance sentiment improved. The issuance rate reversed its upward trend and declined, with the proportion of issuance within 3 years increasing. From October 1 - 19, the issuance was 171.8 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 9.4 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance rates for bonds within 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and 3 - 5 years decreased by 8.2bp, 3.5bp, and 2.8bp respectively compared to September [30]. - **Secondary Market**: Intermediate - term bonds performed well, and the sentiment of long - term bonds also improved. Yields of 3 - 5Y bonds of various grades mostly decreased by 2 - 6bp, and credit spreads mostly compressed by 4 - 7bp. The yields of 10Y AA and above bonds decreased by 2 - 4bp. The 1 - 3 - year bonds had significantly increased trading volume, and the AA(2) varieties were favored by the market, with over 700 single - week transactions and an average low - valuation trading margin of 1.8bp [31][35]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Net Financing Increased Year - on - Year, Issuance Sentiment Recovered - **Primary Market**: From October 1 - 19, the issuance of industrial bonds was 301.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 140.8 billion yuan, both increasing year - on - year. The proportion of long - duration bond issuance increased, and the issuance sentiment improved. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times rose from 14% to 20%, and the proportion of 2 - 3 times increased from 29% to 32% [38]. - **Secondary Market**: The buying sentiment weakened, with the TKN proportion decreasing from 77% to 72% and the low - valuation proportion dropping from 75% to 62%. The trading duration increased, with the trading proportions of 1 - 2 - year and 3 - 5 - year bonds increasing by 2pct and 4pct respectively, while the 1 - year trading proportion decreased by 9pct [40]. 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds: Yields Declined Across the Board, Trading Sentiment Weakened - **Primary Market**: In October 2025, Suzhou Bank issued 4.5 billion yuan of 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds (issuance rate not yet announced), and Weifang Bank issued 1.5 billion yuan of 5 + N - year perpetual bonds with an issuance rate of 2.90% [43]. - **Secondary Market**: Yields of bank capital bonds decreased by 0 - 7bp, and spreads narrowed across the board. The 2Y AA+ and below secondary capital bonds, 2Y and 4Y perpetual bonds performed well, with yields decreasing by 4 - 7bp and spreads narrowing by 7 - 8bp. However, the trading sentiment weakened. The TKN proportions of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds decreased to 61% and 56% respectively, and the low - valuation proportions dropped to 65% and below [43][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This round of bond market adjustment since July 7 lasted for two and a half months, similar to the adjustment period in the first quarter of this year. The main contradictions in the two adjustments were different, leading to significant differences in secondary - market performance [1][9]. - The first - quarter adjustment was mainly due to the unexpected convergence of the capital market, while the adjustment since July was due to the over - heating of the commodity and equity markets, which increased institutional risk appetite and suppressed the bond market through the "stock - bond seesaw" effect [1][13]. - Before all uncertainties are verified, credit bond investment is recommended to focus on coupon - bearing varieties within 3 years for defense, especially 1 - 3 - year AA and AA(2) urban investment bonds [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 City Investment Bonds: Net Financing Recovered, Long - End Yields Reached New Highs for the Year - From September 1 - 21, 2025, city investment bonds issued 349.9 billion yuan, matured 303.7 billion yuan, and had a net inflow of 46.3 billion yuan. The net financing scale in Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Hunan was relatively large, exceeding 8 billion yuan. The proportion of long - term issuance decreased, with the proportion of over 3 - year issuance dropping to 35% and over 5 - year dropping to 3% [29]. - Except for the short - end, the issuance interest rate increased. The weighted average issuance interest rates for less than 1 - year, 1 - 3 - year, 3 - 5 - year, and over 5 - year city investment bonds were 1.8%, 2.32%, 2.75%, and 2.77% respectively. Only the less than 1 - year rate decreased by 1bp compared to August, while the others increased [30]. - In the secondary market, the short - and medium - term bonds were more resistant to decline, and the long - end yields reached new highs for the year. The long - end adjustment was large, with the yields of AAA and AA + 7 - year and above bonds rising by more than 4bp, and the 10 - year AAA city investment bond yield reaching a new high of 2.44% [33]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Net Financing Decreased Year - on - Year, Buying Sentiment Warmed Up - From September 1 - 21, 2025, industrial bonds issued 376.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 86.6 billion yuan, and had a net financing of 62 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6 billion yuan. The net financing scale of the comprehensive and construction decoration industries was over 20 billion yuan, and that of the non - bank finance industry was over 15 billion yuan [37]. - The issuance sentiment weakened. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times decreased from 18% to 17%, and the proportion of 2 - 3 times decreased from 36% to 28%. The proportion of short - duration variety issuance decreased [37]. - From the broker transactions, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds warmed up. The TKN proportion increased from 62% to 71% month - on - month, and the low - valuation proportion increased from 32% to 46% [40]. 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds: Yields Fluctuated Narrowly, Short - and Medium - Duration Bonds Performed Better - From September 15 - 19, 2025, Agricultural Bank of China issued 35 billion yuan of 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds and 25 billion yuan of 10 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds, with issuance interest rates of 2.18% and 2.50% respectively. China Everbright Bank issued 40 billion yuan of 5 + N - year perpetual bonds, with an issuance interest rate of 2.29% [44]. - In the secondary market, bank capital bond yields fluctuated narrowly, and short - and medium - duration bonds performed better. From September 15 - 19, the yields of 1 - 3Y varieties decreased by 0 - 4bp, while the 10Y large - bank secondary capital bonds and 5Y small - and medium - bank capital bonds were weaker, with yields rising by 2 - 4bp [44]. - From the broker transactions, the trading sentiment of bank capital bonds warmed up. The TKN proportion rose above 60%, and the low - valuation proportions of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds increased by 31pct and 27pct respectively [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect was significant. Interest rates first declined and then rose. Credit bond yields generally followed the upward trend of interest - rate bonds. Short - duration varieties were more resistant to decline, while medium - and long - duration ones were weaker. Looking ahead to September, credit bonds still need defensive strategies [1][11][12]. - After the adjustment in August, some bank capital bonds have fallen to show relative value. For example, 3 - year AA and above second - tier capital bonds are oversold, and 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds also have certain value for accounts with different liability characteristics [29][33][37]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - Coupon Short - Term Bonds as Shields, Oversold Perpetual and Second - Tier Capital Bonds as Spears 3.1.1 Credit Bond Defense with Short - and Medium - Duration - In August, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect was prominent. Short - end bonds outperformed long - end ones. Credit bond yields generally rose with interest - rate bonds. Short - duration credit bonds were more resistant to decline, and institutions further shortened the duration to within 3 years. The net buying scale of credit bonds decreased, and the trading activity also declined [1][11][12]. - In September, credit bonds need defense. Bank wealth - management scale usually declines at the end of the quarter, reducing the demand for credit bonds. Credit spreads are at a relatively low level, and institutions will pay more attention to controlling drawdowns when investing in credit bonds [16]. - There are two defensive ideas for credit bonds. One is to select high - coupon individual bonds within 3 years. The other is to appropriately allocate defensive varieties such as 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit and 2Y commercial financial bonds, which have certain cost - effectiveness compared with medium - and short - term notes of the same term [3][19][22]. 3.1.2 Bank Capital Bonds: Opportunities Arising from Declines - In August, the yields of bank capital bonds generally rose, and spreads widened. After the adjustment, some varieties showed relative value. For example, 3 - year AA and above second - tier capital bonds were oversold, and the yields of 3 - year AA second - tier capital bonds were equivalent to those of 3 - year AA perpetual bonds [28][29][30]. - The yields of 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds rose significantly in August. As the decline deepened, insurance, wealth - management, and other asset - management products increased their allocation. For accounts with stable liability ends, they are still cost - effective coupon assets. For accounts with unstable liability ends, it is recommended to follow the interest - rate bond market for right - side layout [33][36][37]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Supply Recovery, Short - End and Low - Rating Bonds Resistant to Declines - In August, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive and increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The issuance of long - duration bonds decreased, and the weighted average issuance interest rate increased. The net financing performance varied by province [39]. - The yields of urban investment bonds generally rose in August. Short - end and low - rating bonds were more resistant to decline, while 10 - year ultra - long - term bonds were the weakest. Credit spreads showed differentiation [45]. - The trading activity of urban investment bonds was not high in August. The proportion of TKN and low - valuation transactions decreased compared with July. Short - duration bonds had an increase in trading volume, while 3 - 5 - year bonds had weaker trading [51]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Supply Contraction, Yields Generally Rising - In August, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds decreased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened, and the issuance proportion of short - duration bonds within 1 year decreased, while the proportion of 1 - 3 - year bonds increased. The issuance interest rates rose across the board, with medium - and long - duration bonds having a larger increase [54]. 3.4 Bank Capital Bonds: Net Financing Turns Negative, Trading Sentiment is Weak No detailed content provided in the given text for this part other than the title. It can be inferred from the previous content that in August, the net financing of bank capital bonds may have turned negative, and the trading sentiment was weak as the yields generally rose and spreads widened, and the relative performance was inferior to that of general credit bonds [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The report continues to expect the 10Y Treasury yield to range between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of 2025. Currently, the 10Y Treasury yield is close to 1.8%, presenting high cost - effectiveness. It anticipates the 10Y Treasury yield to return to around 1.65% in the next six months and the 5Y national and joint - stock second - tier capital bonds to fall below 1.9%. The growth of wealth management scale is favorable for medium - and short - term credit bonds [3][40] - In 2025, the bond market lacks a trend - based market. In the bond market oscillation during the low - interest - rate era, investment is challenging, and it is necessary to seize band opportunities on the left side. When the stock market adjusts, bond yields may decline rapidly, and right - side investment also has high difficulty [3][40] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 1435 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 1298 billion yuan. The total issuance was 3967 billion yuan, up 764 billion yuan week - on - week, and the total repayment was 2531 billion yuan, down 535 billion yuan week - on - week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 132 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 167 billion yuan [8] - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 402 billion yuan, up 72 billion yuan week - on - week; the net financing of industrial bonds was - 256 billion yuan, down 428 billion yuan week - on - week; the net financing of financial bonds was 1289 billion yuan, up 1654 billion yuan week - on - week [8] - In terms of issuance and redemption quantity, the issuance of urban investment bonds increased by 15 and the redemption decreased by 6 this week; the issuance of industrial bonds decreased by 4 and the redemption increased by 7; the issuance of financial bonds increased by 17 and the redemption decreased by 9 [9] 1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rates of AA industrial bonds and AA+ financial bonds decreased this week, while the issuance costs of other bonds with different ratings and types increased. Specifically, the issuance rate of AA - rated industrial bonds decreased by 46BP compared with last week, mainly due to the low - rate issuance of "25 Ningbo Construction SCP001" and "25 Beijing Electronic City SCP002". The issuance costs of AA and AA+ urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased by more than 10BP compared with last week, and the issuance rates of other bonds with different ratings and types increased by no more than 10BP [15] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Trading Volume - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 811 billion yuan week - on - week. Among them, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 2439 billion yuan, up 269 billion yuan week - on - week; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 2926 billion yuan, down 489 billion yuan week - on - week; the trading volume of financial bonds was 4876 billion yuan, up 1031 billion yuan week - on - week. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 257 billion yuan, up 74 billion yuan week - on - week [16] 2.2 Turnover Rate - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated this week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.56%, up 0.17 pct week - on - week; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 1.61%, down 0.27 pct week - on - week; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 3.25%, up 0.66 pct week - on - week; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.71%, up 0.21 pct week - on - week [17] 2.3 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different maturities increased to varying degrees this week, and the adjustment range of some credit bond yields exceeded 10BP. For example, the yields of AA, AAA - and AAA+ credit bonds with maturities within 1Y increased by 4BP each; those with maturities of 3 - 5Y increased by 9BP, 7BP and 7BP respectively; those with maturities over 10Y increased by 5BP, 7BP and 9BP respectively [22] - Taking AA+ - rated 5Y bonds of each type as an example, the yields of different types of bonds increased to varying degrees. The yields of private - placement industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds increased by 6BP each; the yield of AA+ - rated 5Y urban investment bonds increased by 9BP; the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and second - tier capital bonds increased by 6BP and 8BP respectively; the yield of AA+ - rated 5Y asset - backed securities increased by 6BP [23] 2.4 Credit Spreads - Generally, the credit spreads of bonds with different industries and ratings mostly adjusted by no more than 5BP this week, and the credit spreads of a few industries compressed. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA - rated media and AAA - rated household appliances widened by 5BP each compared with last week; the credit spreads of AA+ - rated leisure services and machinery decreased by 5BP and 6BP respectively [23] 2.4.1 Urban Investment Bonds - In terms of maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities all adjusted this week. The credit spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, 5 - 10Y and over - 10Y urban investment bonds widened by less than 1BP, 3BP, 6BP, 7BP and 3BP respectively compared with last week [28] - By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most regions widened to varying degrees this week. For example, the credit spreads of AA - rated urban investment bonds in Shanxi and Anhui widened by 6BP each; the credit spread of AA+ - rated urban investment bonds in Inner Mongolia widened by 12BP; the credit spreads of AAA - rated urban investment bonds in Liaoning and Shaanxi widened by 7BP and 6BP respectively [29] 2.4.2 Industrial Bonds - This week, the industrial bonds with different maturities and ratings mostly adjusted, and the credit spreads of 3Y private - placement industrial bonds performed well and compressed. Specifically, the credit spreads of 3Y AAA -, AA+ and AA private - placement industrial bonds compressed by 4BP, 5BP and 2BP respectively compared with last week; the credit spreads of 10Y AAA -, AA+ and AA private - placement industrial bonds widened by 2BP, 4BP and 1BP respectively; the credit spreads of 3Y AAA - and AA+ perpetual industrial bonds widened by 3BP and 4BP respectively, and the credit spread of AA perpetual industrial bonds compressed by 2BP [32] 2.4.3 Bank Capital Bonds - This week, the credit spreads of 3Y bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds compressed significantly, while the spreads of other maturities mostly widened slightly. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1Y AAA -, AA+ and AA second - tier capital bonds widened by 4BP, 4BP and 5BP respectively; the credit spreads of 3Y AAA -, AA+ and AA second - tier capital bonds compressed by 3BP, 2BP and 1BP respectively; the credit spreads of 1Y AAA -, AA+ and AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 3BP each; the credit spreads of 3Y AAA -, AA+ and AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 4BP each [34] 3. Bond Market News - This week, the implied ratings of 97 bond issues of 11 entities were downgraded. Among them, Zhuhai Gree Group Co., Ltd. involved 29 issues, CCCC Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. involved 17 issues, Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi - Tech Park Development Co., Ltd. involved 14 issues, Shenye Group Co., Ltd. involved 13 issues, and Shanghai Lujiazui (Group) Co., Ltd. involved 12 issues [2][37] 4. Investment Recommendations - This week, a total of 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 220 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured in the open market. The central bank carried out 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 1.2652 trillion yuan for the whole week. The DR001 closed at 1.45% on Friday, the same as the closing price on Monday. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond continued to adjust under pressure from 1.7465% at the close last Friday to 1.78% at the close on 8/22, and the yield of credit bonds also adjusted under pressure [5][39] - Generally, the credit spreads of bonds with different industries and ratings mostly adjusted by no more than 5BP this week, and the credit spreads of a few industries compressed. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities all adjusted; the industrial bonds with different maturities and ratings mostly adjusted, and the credit spreads of 3Y private - placement industrial bonds compressed; the credit spreads of 3Y bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds compressed significantly, while the spreads of other maturities mostly widened slightly [5][39]

Core Insights - The report suggests that the credit bond "barbell strategy" may outperform, which involves holding both high-yield, low-volatility defensive securities and liquid, high-volatility speculative securities [2][17] - Currently, credit bond yields and spreads are at historical lows, leading to cautious sentiment among institutions, particularly regarding long-duration credit bonds [1][10] Summary by Sections Credit Bonds Overview - From August 11 to 15, the stock market's strength suppressed bond market performance, with broad increases in bond yields, while credit spreads mostly narrowed passively [1][10] - The yield on bank capital bonds has risen by 2-10 basis points, with credit spreads generally widening, particularly in the medium to long-term segments [1][10] Defensive Securities - The preferred defensive securities are 1-3 year low to medium-grade urban investment bonds, which have higher coupon rates and can mitigate capital losses during market downturns [2][17] - As of August 15, the yields for 3-year AA and AA(2) urban investment bonds are 2.03% and 2.15%, respectively, with credit spreads between 36-47 basis points, indicating potential for further compression [2][21] Speculative Securities - Liquid large bank capital bonds are recommended for speculative positions, although their role as "amplifiers of interest rate fluctuations" has diminished recently [3][4] - The correlation between the credit spreads of 5-year AAA-rated bank capital bonds and the yields of 5-year policy bank bonds has increased, suggesting favorable conditions for tactical trading [3][4] Market Dynamics - The yields on 4-5 year bank capital bonds have adjusted to above 2%, attracting interest from insurance institutions, which recently net purchased 6.1 billion yuan in other types of bonds, primarily bank capital bonds [4][10] - The report notes a significant decline in the trading volume of bonds with maturities over 5 years, dropping from 15.4% to 5.9% of total transactions since mid-July, while the share of transactions for bonds with maturities of 1 year or less has increased from 29.4% to 36% [11][12]

Rating of the industry investment The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core views of the report - In July, credit spreads first narrowed and then widened, with institutional behavior amplifying the market trends. Looking ahead to August, the liquidity of funds is expected to remain stable, but the growth of wealth - management scale will slow down, potentially increasing the volatility of credit bonds. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on credit bonds with good liquidity. The new tax regulations may enhance the coupon - rate attractiveness of credit bonds and draw in some incremental funds. Additionally, it is advisable to pay attention to the repair opportunities of medium - to - low - rated 2 - 3 - year and high - rated 3 - 5 - year credit bonds, as well as the investment opportunities of bank capital bonds with good liquidity [1][2][19] Summaries based on relevant catalogs 1. Seize repair opportunities and maintain liquidity 1.1 Credit bonds: focus on the repair market of medium - to - low - rated 2 - 3 - year and high - rated 3 - 5 - year bonds - In July, the long - end interest rate fluctuated upward, and credit bonds experienced increased volatility. Credit spreads first narrowed and then widened. In the early part of the month, loose liquidity and the recovery of wealth - management scale led to a narrowing of credit spreads. In the middle, the significant increase in the scale of Sci - tech Bond ETFs boosted the trading of credit bonds. However, in the late part, due to the adjustment of the bond market and tightened liquidity, wealth - management products preemptively redeemed funds, causing funds to sell credit bonds in the secondary market, leading to a widening of credit spreads. By the end of the month, the central bank's efforts to maintain liquidity led to a decline in interest rates and a repair of credit spreads [11][12] - In August, the growth of wealth - management scale is expected to slow，reducing the demand for credit bond allocation. As both yields and credit spreads are at low levels, the volatility of credit bonds may increase. It is recommended to focus on credit bonds with good liquidity [19] - The new tax regulations will increase the coupon - rate attractiveness of credit bonds, potentially attracting incremental funds. The varieties with relatively large adjustments in late July may experience a repair market. It is advisable to focus on the repair opportunities of medium - to - low - rated 2 - 3 - year and high - rated 3 - 5 - year bonds, especially those within 5 years [2][24] - During the adjustment period in late July, some high - rated individual bonds with good liquidity were sold first, resulting in a significant increase in yields. These bonds have relatively large repair space and faster repair speed. Specific individual bonds can be screened through brokerage data [25] 1.2 The impact of the new tax regulations on bank capital bonds may be limited - Theoretically, the new tax regulations reduce the cost - effectiveness of newly issued bank capital bonds relative to newly issued interest - rate bonds and general credit bonds. However, in practice, the main holders of bank capital bonds are bank self - operations, bank wealth - management products, and public funds. Bank self - operations often hold these bonds for business cooperation purposes, while bank wealth - management products and public funds are more focused on trading, so they may not consider the impact of taxes in the short term [31] - If the pricing of newly issued bank capital bonds after August 8 includes the tax premium of the new regulations, it may present a good investment opportunity as the high liquidity of new bonds may drive the narrowing of the spread between new and old bonds. The new regulations may also enhance the willingness of institutions to allocate old bonds, potentially leading to a duration - based market. Liquid 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds are the best choice for capital - gain speculation [31][32] 2. Urban investment bonds: sentiment in both primary and secondary markets declined, and spreads of medium - and short - duration bonds narrowed - In July, the supply of urban investment bonds remained weak, with positive but year - on - year decreasing net financing. The overall issuance sentiment was high but gradually weakened. The proportion of issuance multiples above 3 times decreased from over 60% in the first three weeks to around 50% in the last two weeks. The proportion of bonds with a maturity of over 5 years slightly increased, while the weighted average issuance coupon rate continued to decline [37] - Provincial performance varied, with most provinces having net inflows and about one - third still having net outflows. Shandong had the largest net financing, while Jiangsu had the largest net outflow [38] - Urban investment bonds showed differentiated performance in July. The yields of 1 - year bonds slightly decreased, while those of bonds with a maturity of 3 years and above increased. The credit spreads of bonds with a maturity of 5 years and within generally narrowed, while those of long - duration bonds mostly widened [40] - In the secondary market, the buying sentiment of urban investment bonds was fair, but it weakened slightly compared to June. The proportion of TKN transactions decreased from 75% to 71%, and the proportion of low - valuation transactions decreased from 74% to 64%. The trading of medium - and long - duration bonds was stable, and the proportion of low - grade bonds increased [44] 3. Industrial bonds: supply continued to increase, and low - rated and long - duration bonds performed better - In July, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The net financing of the public utilities, non - bank finance, food and beverage, and building decoration industries was relatively large. The issuance sentiment weakened significantly in late July [48] - The proportion of long - duration bonds with a maturity of over 5 years decreased significantly. The issuance interest rates of bonds within 1 year and 3 - 5 years decreased slightly, while that of bonds over 5 years increased slightly. Compared with urban investment bonds, the average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds were lower [50] - In July, the yields of industrial bonds showed differentiated performance, and most spreads narrowed. Low - rated and long - duration bonds with coupon - rate advantages performed better. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year AA+ and AA and below medium - term notes generally decreased, while those of most medium - to - high - grade varieties increased. Credit spreads generally narrowed [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 21 - 25, the stock and commodity markets strengthened, and the bond market adjusted significantly. Credit bonds showed vulnerability, with reasons including low yields and credit spreads weakening the cushioning effect of coupons on valuation fluctuations, and bond market adjustments and tightened liquidity leading to preventive redemptions of funds by wealth management products, resulting in selling pressure on credit bonds. However, with the central bank's support and seasonal liquidity easing at the beginning of the month, the liquidity may recover, driving the recovery of credit bonds [1][2][11]. - After the adjustment, credit spreads generally remained at low levels. Institutions may prefer credit bond varieties with better liquidity. Among them, short - term urban investment bonds, certain grades of urban investment and industrial bonds with specific maturities had relatively high trading activity during the adjustment period, and their valuation recovery opportunities are worthy of attention. Long - term bonds with maturities over 5 years may face greater valuation fluctuation risks [2][3][17]. - In the bank capital bond market, yields rose across the board from July 21 - 25, and credit spreads widened. After the over - adjustment, there are opportunities. The yields of 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds have become more attractive, and insurance institutions have increased their allocation. Short - term and lower - rated bank capital bonds such as 3 - year AA and 2 - year AA - bank capital bonds may be relatively advantageous choices [5][6][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Yields Up Across the Board, Sci - tech Innovation Bonds Underperformed - In the primary market, from July 1 - 27, 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds was slightly positive. The issuance sentiment weakened, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times decreasing, and the proportion of 2 - 3 times increasing. The issuance term changed little, and the issuance rate remained low, with rates for different terms decreasing compared to June [29][31]. - In the secondary market, yields of urban investment bonds rose across the board. The adjustment of previously "over - bought" sci - tech innovation bond components was greater, restricting the growth of the sci - tech innovation bond ETF scale. The trading activity of urban investment bonds decreased, and the buying sentiment declined sharply [11][12][34]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Both Issuance and Trading Reduced Maturities, and the Proportion of High - rated Trading Recovered - From July 1 - 27, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times decreasing and that of 2 - 3 times increasing. The proportion of long - term issuance over 5 years decreased significantly, and the issuance rate changed little overall [39][41]. - In terms of trading, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds weakened significantly, with the TKN proportion decreasing and the low - valuation proportion dropping. The trading slightly reduced maturities, and the proportion of high - rated trading recovered [42]. 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds: Long - term Large - bank Bonds Performed Weaker, and Trading "Increased Volume with Falling Prices" - From July 21 - 25, 2025, several banks issued secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, due to increased market risk appetite and tightened liquidity, the yields of bank capital bonds rose across the board, with long - term large - bank secondary capital bonds performing weaker. Credit spreads also widened across the board, and the trading volume increased while the trading sentiment weakened significantly. The trading was mainly concentrated in medium - and long - term varieties with better liquidity, and the trading of city commercial bank capital bonds shifted towards high - grade bonds [45][48][51]. - Regarding TLAC bonds, the spreads between 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds and TLAC bonds were analyzed, indicating that 10 - year TLAC bonds were more cost - effective at present. For commercial financial bonds, the credit spread of 3Y AAA commercial financial bonds reached the lower limit of the central position [51][55].