Group 1 - The origin of the saying "Five poor, six absolute, seven turn around" comes from the Hong Kong stock market in the 1980s and 1990s, indicating a seasonal pattern in stock performance [1] - The saying has been adopted in the A-share market, but its relevance has been questioned due to changes in market structure and investor behavior [1][4] - Historical data over the past 20 years shows that the average performance of the A-share market in May has been positive, with an average increase of 1.52%, despite 55% of the years experiencing declines [2][4] Group 2 - In June, the A-share market has shown an average decline of 1.41%, with 40% of the years experiencing downturns, attributed to tightening liquidity and institutional rebalancing [2][4] - July typically sees a recovery, with an average increase of 2.26% and 40% of the years showing declines, driven by policy expectations and mid-year earnings reports [2][4] Group 3 - The weakening of the calendar effect is noted, as recent policy changes have accelerated, reducing the impact of traditional seasonal patterns [4][5] - The increase in institutional investor participation has led to a diminished effect of short-term sentiment fluctuations, with a greater focus on long-term investment logic [5] Group 4 - Investment strategies should focus on fundamental analysis and policy direction rather than solely relying on historical patterns [6][8] - Suggested strategies include diversifying investments across technology growth and defensive dividend assets to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [7][11] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors supported by government policies, such as technology and consumer upgrades, which are expected to benefit from recent financial measures [9][10] - The real estate sector is highlighted as having potential recovery opportunities due to improved credit conditions and consumer spending capabilities [10]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional stock market saying "May is poor, June is desperate, and July is a turnaround" does not hold true based on statistical analysis of the A-share market from 1991 to 2024, indicating that the calendar effect is a misconception [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market has shown that from 2009 to 2024, April generally has a low probability of rising, while August tends to have a larger average decline [1] - June and July have relatively high probabilities of rising, contrary to the saying, with May showing a rise probability of less than 50% but not being the lowest month [1] - In the earlier period from 1991 to 2008, October had the lowest probability of rising, while May and June had higher probabilities, further debunking the "poor May" notion [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - In May, the market is expected to shift back to technology growth sectors, with catalysts including updates on AI large models and developments in robotics [2] - Key areas of focus include AI applications in cloud computing, office automation, and healthcare, as well as the ongoing trend of domestic semiconductor production [2] - The low-altitude economy is anticipated to gain momentum following the announcement of pilot cities, with strong expectations for construction and development in related sectors [2] Group 3: Market Performance - Recent market performance showed a broad increase in individual stocks, with nearly 5,000 stocks rising and trading volume expanding to 1.3 trillion, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [3] - Technology sectors such as computers, communications, machinery, media, and electronics led the gains, while defensive sectors like food and beverage showed minimal increases [3]

Market Overview - On May 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.01%, the STAR 50 gained 1.39%, the CSI 1000 climbed 2.57%, the ChiNext Index went up by 1.97%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.7% [4] - The best-performing sectors on May 6 were Computer (+3.65%), Communication (+3.59%), Comprehensive (+3.38%), Machinery Equipment (+3.04%), and Media (+2.82%). The worst-performing sectors were Banking (-0.13%), Food & Beverage (+0.35%), Beauty & Personal Care (+0.43%), Oil & Petrochemicals (+0.66%), and Coal (+0.74%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on May 6 was 13,644.47 billion, with a net inflow of 13.476 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Recommendations - The report highlights Huadong Cable (605196) as a leading company in "cables + oil service materials" with promising overseas expansion, particularly in the African electrolytic aluminum project, which is expected to exceed expectations [5] - The recommendation logic indicates that the company is a typical "outbound" enterprise with continuous improvement in overseas capacity layout, and the electrolytic aluminum project is anticipated to double the company's profits [5] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 estimate revenues of 7,377.70 million, 9,925.67 million, and 11,393.83 million, with growth rates of 16.24%, 34.54%, and 14.79% respectively. Net profits are projected at 330.15 million, 752.43 million, and 1,064.84 million, with growth rates of 3.39%, 127.90%, and 41.52% respectively [5] Key Insights - The strategy research indicates a historical pattern in the A-share market from 2010 to 2024, characterized by "April weakness, May not poor, June absolute, and July rebound" [6][7] - In terms of sector performance, May typically sees strong results in Food & Beverage, Pharmaceutical & Biological, Electronics, and Computers, while June favors Electronics, and July benefits cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, defense, agriculture, and social services [7] - The report suggests that calendar effects may influence the performance of the entire A-share market and sector indices [7]

廖市无双：节后市场能否走出主升浪？20250505 摘要 • 上证指数在 3,140-3,500 点区间震荡，中枢约 3,330-3,340 点，清明节 后下翻修复，上方套牢盘集中在 3,300 点以上，反弹阻力逐渐增大，形成 楔形形态，补缺口难度增加。关注外部利好能否加速突破，否则可能转折 向下。 • 节前三个交易日市场窄幅震荡，上证 50 微跌，成长指数反弹。上证 50 已 补缺口并超涨，蓝筹股指数未能表达趋势性变化，区间震荡偏空。恒生科 技指数压力位对应跳空缺口上沿，受中美贸易紧张局势影响，存在抛售压 力，预计 4 月 27 日前仍区间震荡。 • 未来市场走势以区间震荡为主，支撑位在跳空缺口下沿，压力位在跳空缺 口上沿（约 3,350-3,340 点）。中证 500、1,000 和国证 2000 震荡反映 市场交易心理，投资者认为"有缺必补"，且前期风险偏好低，集中在自 主可控、内需板块，风险偏好回升后，这些板块成为补涨主战场。 • 市场风险偏好提高，成长风格优于价值风格。上证 50 已补缺，中证 1,000、国证 2000 仍有较大缺口。前期受压制的 AI、机器人等题材开始 表现强劲，资金转向需要补涨 ...

近期，随着外围多变政策的扰动，大盘也再次进入震荡修复阶段。一边是择机降准降息仍有待商榷，一边是节假日前持仓观望情绪提升，我认为 这个节点埋伏一波A500指数，等待大盘选择进攻方向或是不错的选择。 首先，从历史数据来看，统计2015-2024年五一节前三个交易日Wind全A涨跌幅，发现仅2019年未录得正收益，上涨概率较大。，节前埋伏大盘宽 基的性价比较高。 其次，从政策方面来看，近期政策信号密集释放，增量政策的核心逻辑逐渐清晰。从这场博弈结果来看，两边高手见招拆招，你有张良计，我有 过墙梯，国内择机降准降息近期多次被提及。考虑到当前市场悲观的观望情绪较浓，多家外媒预计宽松政策或将提前落地。 而当下不管是通过刺激内需带动经济内循环，还是加强科技自主可控，核心目标都是为了保住今年GDP预计增速，抵御外围扰动风险。但受限于 不少场内活跃资金再次缩量，剩余资金更倾向于等待两边确定性政策落地后博弈先手。但不管是那边政策先出，直接埋伏大盘宽基，都可以稳坐 钓鱼台，省却两边博弈切换的风险。 最后，相比其余大盘宽基，中证A500在持仓方面更为兼顾价值与成长。中证A500指数纳入ESG可持续发展理念、互联互通等全新视角，剔除E ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a "calendar effect," particularly during earnings disclosure periods (April, July, October), where performance growth significantly impacts stock prices compared to other months [1] - The A50 ETF fund (159592) has seen a daily trading volume of 87.4 million yuan over the past month, indicating high market interest [1] - Major stocks in the A50 index, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and China Aluminum, have shown significant price increases, with Luoyang Molybdenum rising over 4% [1] Group 2 - Huajin Securities projects that the net profit growth rates for the entire A-share market in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be 6.83%, 10.85%, and 8.47% respectively, with an annual growth rate of 6.95% [2] - The implementation of stable growth policies in Q2 is expected to support market sentiment, including fiscal and monetary policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and encouraging technological innovation [2]

Market Adjustment - The article discusses the recent market adjustment, indicating that the convergence of style gaps can occur through either lagging styles catching up or leading styles declining, with the current situation reflecting a strong market state [1][13] - Historical data shows that from October 2013 to December 2013, growth styles were dominant, while consumer styles took over in the same period in 2014, indicating a cyclical nature of market styles [2][14] Calendar Effects - The article highlights the strong seasonal patterns observed in small-cap indices during the first half of the year, noting that adjustments typically occur from December to January to avoid risks associated with annual report forecasts [3][15] - Post-Spring Festival, there is over a 90% probability of an upward trend leading into the Two Sessions, driven by the release of annual report forecasts and the resolution of overseas uncertainties [4][5] TMT Sector Insights - The TMT sector's crowdedness is analyzed, suggesting that a drop in sentiment to around 31% from a peak of 44.6% in February could present a good re-entry point for investments [9][17] - The article recommends continued investment in technology sectors, particularly those with potential for quick order fulfillment and strong fundamentals, such as CSP manufacturers and military electronics [10][18] Deep Sea Technology - The inclusion of "deep sea technology" in the government work report marks a significant policy shift, positioning it alongside commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, indicating its growing importance [11][19] - Deep sea technology encompasses various sectors, including safety assurance, resource development, and scientific research, with a focus on high-tech materials and equipment suitable for deep-sea conditions [21][22] Comparison with Low Altitude Economy - The article draws parallels between the current deep sea technology trend and the previous low altitude economy surge, suggesting that strong policy support could drive similar market movements [25][29] - Historical performance of low altitude economy stocks shows significant price increases, indicating potential for deep sea technology stocks to follow suit [30][32]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market dynamics indicate a shift from a technology-dominated landscape to a more diversified performance across various sectors, including consumer goods, retail, textiles, agriculture, and light manufacturing, suggesting discussions around "market diffusion" or "high-low rotation" are increasing [1] Group 1: Calendar Effect - The calendar effect is a common explanation for the market's behavior, with reports indicating that March to April serves as a transition period where market styles shift from clear trends to a more balanced performance across various styles [2] - Specifically, from early February to early March, small-cap and high-beta sectors tend to outperform, while larger, low-valuation stocks struggle [2] - As the market moves into late April, with earnings reports being disclosed, the focus will shift towards high-performing stocks with strong earnings certainty [2] Group 2: Incremental Capital Changes - Reports suggest that the "high-low rotation" phenomenon is partly driven by incremental capital changes, with consumer-focused and dividend-style funds showing signs of increasing allocations to consumer sectors [3] - Additionally, there are indications of portfolio adjustments among dividend-style funds, while low-risk capital is being allocated to low-positioned cyclical large-cap growth stocks due to favorable cost-benefit considerations [3] - However, there is no significant evidence of technology growth funds switching out of their positions [3] Group 3: Market Pricing Dynamics - Changes in market pricing are also being observed, with reports noting that credit growth is weak, and consumer activity is seasonally declining post-holiday [3] - The stock market appears to be pricing in optimistic data while underpricing negative data, possibly due to prior pricing of pessimistic data and expectations of new growth cycles driven by policies and emerging industries like AI [3] Group 4: Global Perspective - Some analysts suggest that the changes in the A-share market should be viewed in a global context, indicating a shift in global investor focus from the U.S. and information technology to other sectors [4] - The rising correlation between the CSI 300 and European markets suggests that global investors are seeking new opportunities beyond traditional tech narratives [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The diverse explanations for market behavior reflect a warming market sentiment, indicating that the market is no longer dominated by a single sector, which may lead to more investment opportunities [5] - This environment is favorable for investors skilled in identifying alpha, providing a platform for previously held insights to materialize [5]