Market Overview - The A-share market has experienced increased volatility, with major indices showing significant pullbacks and a subtle change in market sentiment [1] - The market exhibited a "strong first half, followed by fluctuations" characteristic in early 2026, driven by policy expectations and economic recovery [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 4100 points, with active rotations in sectors like non-ferrous metals and technology [1] Factors Influencing Market Trends - The market's performance in January typically sees adjustments, but this year has been contrary due to two main reasons: the resonance of loose monetary and fiscal policies between China and the US, and the strong expectations for domestic economic stabilization [1] - The nomination of Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump has introduced potential pressure on long-term liquidity, with implications for risk assets [3] Sector Analysis - Analysts have noted overheating in various sectors, including commercial aerospace and precious metals, primarily driven by liquidity influx [2] - The lack of a pricing anchor has contributed to the recent downturn in the stock market following a significant drop in precious metal prices [2] Policy Implications - Walsh's proposed "tapering and rate cuts" policy may create conflicts, but the market is more focused on the tapering aspect, leading to corrections in precious metal prices [4] - The A-share market's pricing is more influenced by domestic liquidity changes rather than US dollar liquidity, although declines in overseas asset prices can impact related A-share sectors [4] Investment Strategies - The foundation for the "spring rally" is supported by fundamental factors such as liquidity expansion and economic recovery, which are expected to improve corporate earnings [5] - Caution is advised regarding high valuations in growth styles, which may have overextended policy expectations, while cyclical styles may benefit from a recovery in manufacturing and supply-demand improvements [5] - Traders are encouraged to focus on undervalued assets and to adopt a long-term investment perspective while managing short-term market fluctuations [5]

春节将至，投资者普遍关注节前节后港股市场表现规律。对此广发证券指出，历史数据显示，恒生指数在春节前3个交易日上涨概率高达82%，且上涨幅度 普遍较大。这反映出节前资金行为趋同，短期做多情绪明显。 图 2:春季~两会,A股上涨明显;港股没有明显的目历效应 St Friday ■ 上涨概率:春节->两会(2010年~2015年 100% 93.8% -93.8% 93.8% 87.5% 90% 81.39 it 80% 72.7% ter 2 5: 70% 62.5% 62.5% 56.3% 54 .! 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% el ck 02月 717 班 极 | 上涨概率 | 圣诞节-春节前 | 春节后-两会 | 两会期间 | 两会-3月底 | 1月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生科技 | 72.7% | 72.7% | 45.5% | 50.0% | 63.6% | | 恒生指数 | 80.0% | 46.7% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 73.3% | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 73.3% | 40.0% | ...

来源：智通财经 图 2:春季~两会,A股上涨明显;港股没有明显的目历效应 E SECTION FOR ■ 上涨概率:春节->两会(2010年~2015年 100% 93.8% -93.8% 93.8% 87.5% 90% 81.39 it 80% 72.7% 184 2 5: 70% 62.5% 62.5% 56.3% 54 .! 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% el ch 02肖 717 班 极 数据来源：Wind,广发证券发展研究中心。备注：恒生科技、恒生港股通、港股通高股息采用 2016~2 图 3: 过去15年,春节后港股各指数日历效应 | 上涨概率 | 圣诞节-春节前 | 春节后-两会 | 两会期间 | 两会-3月底 | 1月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生科技 | 72.7% | 72.7% | 45.5% | 50.0% | 63.6% | | 恒生指数 | 80.0% | 46.7% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 73.3% | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 73.3% | 40.0% | 46.7% | 57. ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a positive trend on February 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% to surpass 4100 points, and more than 4500 stocks in the market increasing in value [1] - The CSI All Share Securities Companies Index (399975.SZ) rose by 0.73%, with notable increases in stocks such as Jinlong Co., Ltd. rising over 4% and Caitong Securities rising over 2% [1] - Major securities firms like Huatai Securities and Industrial Securities saw their stocks increase by over 1%, indicating a broad-based rally in the securities sector [1] Group 2 - The Securities ETF (159841) recorded a trading volume of 159 million yuan, with a real-time discount rate of 0.07% [2] - The ETF saw a net inflow of 22.616 million yuan on the previous trading day (February 6), with a cumulative net inflow exceeding 1 billion yuan over the past 20 days [2] - As of February 6, the ETF had a latest circulating share count of 9.982 billion shares and a total circulating scale of 10.714 billion yuan, closely tracking the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index [2] Group 3 - Open Source Securities highlighted that by January 2026, the market's account openings, trading volume, and new fund issuance are expected to show significant year-on-year growth, benefiting brokerage firms and the securities IT sector [2] - GF Securities noted a continuous trend of incremental capital entering the market, suggesting that the undervalued brokerage sector could see amplified elasticity amid the spring market rally [2] - The stability of the capital market enhances the tool-like attributes of the brokerage sector, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [2]

近期A股市场波动加大，主要指数出现明显回调。分析人士表示，春节假期临近，A股及股指期货市场 呈现鲜明的"节前特征"，符合资金避险、市场情绪收敛的历史规律。今年"春季躁动"行情有基本面支 撑，股指市场长期上行的基础依然稳固。春节后随着政策的发力，"春季躁动"行情有较大概率延续。交 易者应抓住本轮牛市的主线，通过长期配置获利，理性看待短期市场波动，淡化短线择时。 ...

Performance Insights - The proportion of companies with positive revenue growth on the North Exchange is high, indicating a stronger seasonal rally in spring. In 2025, 62% of companies reported positive revenue growth, while 48% reported positive net profit growth[12][14]. - The spring rally in 2025 saw a significant increase of +40.17% in the North Exchange 50 Index, supported by optimistic performance expectations[12][15]. Liquidity Factors - Improved liquidity is a key driver for the seasonal rally, with trading volumes in 2024 and 2025 starting from two consecutive days of increased trading volume. The average daily trading amount reached over 100 billion yuan in these years[16][17]. - The North Exchange's trading volume has shown significant fluctuations, but the North Exchange 50 Index's volatility has been relatively small, suggesting stable liquidity conditions[22]. Valuation Trends - Valuations have experienced a phase of correction before seasonal rallies, with the North Exchange's overall price-to-earnings ratio dropping from 55 times in September 2025 to 47 times currently, providing a foundation for potential rallies[26]. - Historical data shows that prior to the spring rallies, valuations were at relatively low levels, which attracted more investments and facilitated valuation recovery[23][26]. Market Dynamics - The spring rally is influenced by multiple factors, including concentrated policy expectations, thematic investment opportunities, and performance-driven market sentiment[5][6]. - The North Exchange has shown a decreasing "see-saw effect" with the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating a growing recognition and acceptance of the North Exchange among investors[17]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors such as new energy, embodied intelligence, and emerging industries with unique business models that are scarce in the A-share market[15]. - Emphasize companies with strong financial indicators, high growth potential, and significant R&D investments to capitalize on the expected spring rally[15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations, as the underlying trends indicate a shift from virtual to real economies in Europe and the US, alongside the disruptive innovation brought by AI [2] - The urgency for strategic security investments and new infrastructure in the US reflects a growing competition, balancing short-term shareholder interests with long-term strategic value [2] - China's capital market has already completed the pricing adjustment from virtual to real, currently undergoing a verification and pricing process for quality and efficiency improvements [2] Group 2 - A potential "favorable timing and conditions" for a new upward cycle in the A-share market is anticipated in the coming months, particularly around the Spring Festival [3] - Historical data shows that February, especially around the Spring Festival, is a period of strong market activity, with small-cap stocks likely to outperform [3] - The recent market pullback is seen as an opportunity to regain confidence and prepare for the upcoming upward cycle, especially around the 4000-point level [3] Group 3 - The global market is quickly pricing in the potential hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, while the Chinese government is shifting its focus towards domestic demand, which is expected to boost economic prospects [5] - The recent emphasis from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on stabilizing the capital market is expected to support a gradual recovery in the A-share market [5] - Recommendations include focusing on emerging technologies and sectors such as consumer services, food and beverage, and traditional manufacturing [5] Group 4 - The recent global asset adjustment is more about digesting emotions rather than fundamental changes, with a favorable environment for market recovery expected post-Spring Festival [6] - Key sectors to focus on include technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure chains, with a particular emphasis on AI hardware and high-end manufacturing [6] - The upcoming period is expected to see increased industry catalysts and a rise in risk appetite, creating opportunities for thematic investments [6] Group 5 - The Hang Seng Technology Index is seen as having value for investment, with expectations of a rebound once the liquidity shock subsides [7] - The market is expected to experience a stronger performance post-Spring Festival, with a focus on sectors benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] - The rotation of investment focus is anticipated to accelerate in February, particularly towards sectors like oil, food and beverage, and construction materials [7] Group 6 - The global risk-off mode has led to a reevaluation of assets, with a focus on physical assets and a recovery in manufacturing trends [8] - Recommendations include investing in commodities like oil, copper, and lithium, as well as sectors with confirmed bottoming out in the Chinese manufacturing industry [8] - The return of capital and easing of pressure from quantitative tightening are expected to support a recovery in consumer sectors [8] Group 7 - The recent adjustments in the A-share market are primarily driven by internal factors, with external shocks having limited impact on the fundamental industry landscape [9][10] - The market sentiment has been sufficiently released, and a continuation of the spring market rally is anticipated post-Spring Festival [10] - Key sectors to watch include AI computing, chemical industries, and power equipment, with potential catalysts from local policy signals [10] Group 8 - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a shift towards value and consumer sectors as high-valuation tech stocks face selling pressure [12] - Defensive sectors like banking and food and beverage are likely to attract investment, while growth sectors may regain focus post-Spring Festival [12] - The upcoming policy window and recovery in risk appetite are expected to shift market attention back to growth sectors with clear performance catalysts [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report suggests that despite recent market pullbacks causing concerns among investors, the current level around 4000 points presents an opportunity to regain confidence and prepare for the first wave of upward movement in the Year of the Horse [1] - The report anticipates a favorable market environment in the next 1-2 months, indicating a potential "timing, location, and human factors" scenario for an upward trend in A-shares [1] - Historical data shows that February and the period around the Spring Festival are characterized by strong seasonal effects, with a 100% probability of small-cap indices rising between the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, and an 87.5% probability of increases in February [1] Group 2 - The report notes that after the release of annual report forecasts, negative impacts on the fundamentals are expected to subside, as the number of companies with low expectations, losses, or negative growth has reached a new high compared to the previous year [1] - The market is expected to be "lightly loaded" as negative fundamental shocks are digested, starting from February [1] - In a bull market trend, it is often a good opportunity to increase positions about a week after the Wind All A Index falls below the 20-day moving average [2]

广发策略研报表示，虽然近期市场的回调，让部分投资人开始对市场的情况有所担忧，但是目前4000点 左右的位置，建议大家重拾信心、重整旗鼓，备战马年的第一波上涨周期。展望后续1-2个月，A股很 可能迎来一段"天时地利人和"的上涨机会。 天时：2月开始，春季躁动迎来胜率最高的阶段。历史看， 2月份及春节前后是春季躁动日历效应最强阶段。市场高胜率、小盘风格占优。以小盘指数为例，在春 节到两会之间上涨概率为100%，在2月上涨概率为87.5%。 地利：年报预告靴子落地后，基本面负面扰 动告一段落。自上而下来看，在1月底披露完毕的25年年报预告中，低预期、亏损或负增公司数量占比 均较24年再创新高。随着这些负面财报信息的靴子落地和逐步消化，2月开始，市场"轻装上阵"，负面 基本面冲击告一段落。 人和：牛市趋势中，每次万得全A指数跌破20均线后一周左右，往往是加仓良 机。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations and adjustments ahead of the upcoming Spring Festival, with discussions on whether to hold stocks or cash during the holiday. Investors are concerned about external risks during the long holiday, while others fear missing out on potential gains post-holiday, known as the "red envelope market" [11]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Dongwu Securities recommends holding stocks during the holiday, suggesting that the factors currently suppressing the market may weaken, leading to a potential rebound starting next week, with a focus on overvalued technology sectors such as semiconductor equipment and cloud computing [12]. - Guosen Securities supports holding stocks, citing historical data showing a high probability of market gains before and after the Spring Festival, with the Shanghai Composite Index having an 81% chance of rising in the week before the holiday [13]. - Huachuang Securities believes the current market adjustment may have reached its limit, advising investors to focus on high-dividend stocks and sectors with strong performance support [14]. - China Galaxy Securities suggests a cautious approach of "lightly holding stocks," balancing the risks of pre-holiday market adjustments with the potential for post-holiday gains [16]. - Huajin Securities indicates that the spring market is not over, with expectations for improved economic and profit forecasts during the holiday [17]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Shenyin Wanguo Securities notes that the market's overall profitability has returned to historical mid-high levels, and a second phase of upward movement may begin after identifying the lower limit of the current fluctuation range [15]. - CITIC Securities emphasizes the need to maintain a "resource + traditional manufacturing" base amid increasing global market uncertainties, suggesting that the Chinese capital market is transitioning towards quality improvement and efficiency [18]. - GF Securities highlights that February and the period around the Spring Festival are historically strong for market movements, with small-cap stocks showing a 100% probability of rising from the Spring Festival to March [19]. - Zhongtai Securities points out that high-dividend stocks currently offer more attractive yields than long-term bonds, with a potential shift in market style towards more stable, high-dividend sectors post-holiday [21]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The focus on cyclical stocks is emphasized by Founder Securities, which notes that improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) could drive excess returns in cyclical stocks, suggesting that sectors like power and machinery also present good investment opportunities [23].