Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation on the weak side [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - On the night of Monday this week, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.53% to 2,269 yuan/ton [5]. Core Logic - With the gradual digestion of macro - positive factors, there is a lack of fundamental support for the continued upward movement of methanol futures prices [5]. - Multiple domestic coal - to - methanol plants have restarted one after another, and the supply pressure has rebounded again, hitting a new weekly production high [5]. - The improvement in downstream demand is limited, and the profit of methanol - to - olefin futures has declined, which is not conducive to the continued reduction of port inventories [5]. - With the expected increase in external imports, the pressure on social inventory accumulation will increase in the future [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 16, 2025, the glass futures price hit a new low, with a decline of over 2% and a minimum of 1002 yuan/ton, and a trading volume of 1.6316 million. Multiple factors contributed to this, and the price may remain weak in the short - term and depend on various factors in the long - term [3]. - A - shares had a full - line decline after continuous upward oscillations, and there is a high probability of entering an adjustment and oscillation phase. Foreign investors are optimistic about the overweight opportunities of Chinese assets [6]. - Gold is in an adjustment phase, but the general direction is still bullish, and the most important support is the low point after Tomb - Sweeping Festival [11]. - Iron ore faces supply surplus pressure in May due to export reduction and shipping increase, and the weak reality increases the high - valuation risk. Technically, it should be viewed with a bearish and oscillating mindset [14]. - The glass futures market requires the manifestation of real - estate stimulus effects or major policy announcements for demand to increase. Technically, it should be viewed bearishly [17]. - PTA has fundamental pressure to break through the resistance level due to low PX device operating rates and weak downstream polyester demand, and shows signs of reaching a phased peak [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus - On May 16, 2025, the glass futures price hit a new low. Supply has a potential contraction trend, but inventory is at a near - three - year high. Demand is weak, raw material costs have decreased, and macro - policies have not effectively supported the demand side. In the short - term, the price may remain weak, and in the long - term, it depends on multiple factors [3]. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares declined after continuous upward oscillations, and there is a high probability of entering an adjustment and oscillation phase. Foreign investors are optimistic about the overweight opportunities of Chinese assets [6]. - **Gold**: It is in an adjustment phase, but the general direction is still bullish, and the most important support is the low point after Tomb - Sweeping Festival [11]. - **Iron Ore**: In May, there is supply surplus pressure due to export reduction and shipping increase, and the weak reality increases the high - valuation risk. Technically, it should be viewed with a bearish and oscillating mindset [14]. - **Glass**: Demand needs real - estate stimulus or major policies to increase. Technically, it should be viewed bearishly [17]. - **PTA**: It has fundamental pressure to break through the resistance level due to low PX device operating rates and weak downstream polyester demand, and shows signs of reaching a phased peak [21].

期货热点追踪 分析师预测，未来几周CBOT大豆期货将陷入区间震荡，玉米和小麦价格可能下滑，关键支撑和阻力分 别位于…… 相关链接 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, in the short - term, there is a marginal improvement. Driven by production cut expectations, the soda ash futures price in May may have a brief and small - scale rebound, but it lacks the power for continuous growth. In the long - term, the market is in an oversupply situation. Around mid - to late May, as the positive effects of maintenance fade and the supply - demand contradiction becomes prominent again, the price will enter a downward channel [8]. - For glass, the overall profit in the float glass production field using natural gas, coal, and oil as main raw materials has increased slightly. The current output of float glass remains relatively stable. The demand side is relatively dull, and downstream enterprises' inventory has accumulated to some extent. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and the cost support is expected to show in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rushing for exports due to the Sino - US tariff agreement, which provides some support to the market. However, the continuous game of supply - demand relationship is still the key factor for the subsequent trend of the float glass market [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: On May 15, for soda ash futures, SA505 opened at 1272, closed at 1296, up 24 yuan/ton (1.88%), with a position of 0.29 million lots and a decrease of 218 lots; SA509 opened at 1285, closed at 1345, up 35 yuan/ton (2.67%), with a position of 118.72 million lots and a decrease of 162,061 lots. For glass futures, FG505 opened at 1015, closed at 1042, up 6 yuan/ton (0.57%), with a position of 0.42 million lots and a decrease of 749 lots; FG509 opened at 1015, closed at 1046, up 14 yuan/ton (1.35%), with a position of 140.96 million lots and a decrease of 53,826 lots [7]. - **Soda Ash Situation**: The supply and demand of soda ash both decreased, and the inventory accumulation situation still exists. In the week of May 8, the weekly output of Chinese soda ash reached 757,000 tons, which was at the highest level this year though it declined compared with the previous week. The weekly operating load rate of Chinese soda ash remained at 90%. As of May 8, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 711,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.26%. The weekly enterprise inventory of Chinese soda ash (heavy soda ash) remained at 872,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend [8]. - **Glass Situation**: The supply side of glass has a slight profit increase, and the output is stable. The demand side is dull, and downstream enterprises purchase conservatively, leading to inventory accumulation. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and cost support is expected to emerge in the short - term. The Sino - US tariff agreement brings short - term export expectations [9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - **Soda Ash Market**: The domestic soda ash market was slightly adjusted today. The trading atmosphere was lukewarm. Some soda ash plants such as Henan Junhua, Huachang Chemical, and Shilian Chemical had production stoppages or were under maintenance, reducing the supply. The futures market fluctuated, and downstream demand was average, with end - users mainly making rigid purchases. Some soda ash plants in East China raised their new order quotes slightly [11]. - **Glass Market**: The domestic float glass market prices continued to decline steadily. Different regions had different price trends: North China was weak, East China was affected by price cuts in surrounding areas, Central China had mixed price changes, South China had a small price increase in some enterprises, and Southwest China's price was stable [11]. - **Baking Soda Market**: Henan Jinshan Chemical's baking soda plant started maintenance last night. The quoted price for food - grade, feed - grade, and industrial - grade baking soda is 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton, with actual orders negotiated separately, and the sales were stable [11]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the output of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [13][17][18].

Group 1: Urea Market - Urea futures prices experienced wide fluctuations, with the main 09 contract closing at 1897 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 0.32% [1] - Spot market prices in certain regions continued to rise, with Shandong at 1970 CNY/ton and Henan at 1930 CNY/ton, both stable on a daily basis [1] - Urea supply has significantly decreased, with daily production at 192,800 tons, down 980 tons from the previous day [1] - Demand remains cautious, with an overall sales rate of 42%, a decline from the previous day [1] - Market sentiment may be pressured by export expectations not meeting forecasts, leading to a potential retreat in futures market sentiment [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures prices opened high but weakened, with the main 09 contract closing at 1291 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.84% [1] - Most spot market prices remained stable, with self-pickup prices in Shihezi and surrounding areas at 1330 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The industry operating rate has dropped to 75.45% due to ongoing plant maintenance, with further supply declines expected [1] - Demand remains steady but with low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream sectors, leading to a cautious approach [1] - The futures market is expected to experience wide fluctuations despite strengthened supply support [1] Group 3: Glass Market - Glass futures prices trended downward, with the main 09 contract closing at 1016 CNY/ton, a decline of 1.93% [1] - The average price of domestic float glass in the spot market decreased to 1267 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] - Glass supply has remained stable recently, with a daily melting capacity of 155,800 tons [1] - Glass manufacturers are primarily focused on sales, with some potential for discounts [1] - Demand remains cautious, with localized improvements in sales rates, while other regions maintain a rate of 80-90% [1] - The short-term glass market lacks new positive factors, with expectations of weak bottom fluctuations in futures prices [1]

Group 1: Urea Market - Urea futures prices experienced wide fluctuations, closing at 1897 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 0.32% [1] - Urea supply decreased with a daily production of 192,800 tons, down by 980 tons from the previous day [1] - The overall production and sales rate in major regions was 42%, showing a day-on-day decline [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures prices opened high but weakened, closing at 1291 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.84% [1] - The industry operating rate fell to 75.45%, with ongoing maintenance plans expected to further reduce supply [1] - Demand remained stable but cautious, with downstream purchasing activity being low [1] Group 3: Glass Market - Glass futures prices declined, closing at 1016 CNY/ton, down 1.93% [1] - The average price of float glass in the domestic market was 1267 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3 CNY from the previous day [1] - The industry maintained a daily melting capacity of 155,800 tons, with manufacturers focusing on sales to avoid high inventory levels [1]

南华期货（603093）分析称，从供应端看px的检修依旧在高位，国内的px开工在73%，亚洲开工也在 68%附近，5月浙石化和盛虹等有计划检修，国外五月也仍有降负和检修计划，总体供应不多，但与其 同时，pta的检修也较多，总体px供需仍能保持紧平衡预期，但节日期间原油跌幅明显，单边价格估计 低开，pxn逢低做扩。 5月7日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，对二甲苯期货主力合约开盘报6142.0元/吨，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，对二甲苯主力最高触及6362.0元，下方探低6134.0元，涨幅达2.39%。 目前来看，对二甲苯行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于对二甲苯后市行情将如何运行，相关 机构观点汇总如下： 银河期货表示，由于供应方面存在多重变动因素，包括日本装置的意外停车和计划检修，以及国内部分 装置的重启和检修计划，导致PX供需驱动减弱。此外，中东局势紧张增加了供应压力，PX价格预计将 宽幅震荡。 瑞达期货（002961）指出，中东局势急剧升温，国际原油上涨，影响聚酯走势。供应方面，本周国内 PX产量为64.94万吨，环比上周+0.35%。国内PX周均产能利用率77.44%，环比上周+0 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Bean 1): Neutral (indicated by 'ななな') [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Soybean Oil: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Palm Oil: Neutral (indicated by 'ななな') [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Neutral (indicated by 'ななな') [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Corn: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Live Pigs: Bearish (indicated by '★☆☆') [1] - Eggs: Bearish (indicated by '★☆★') [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply pattern of imported soybeans will shift from tight to loose in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy and supply - demand changes [2][3][4] - The price of soybean meal futures will be relatively strong in the short - term, but its upward momentum will weaken when the procurement of Brazilian soybeans accelerates and North American weather risks decrease [3] - The price of edible oils will fluctuate repeatedly due to factors such as low procurement progress of third - quarter soybean shipments in China and the palm oil production cycle [4] - The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [6] - Corn futures may oscillate downward after the release of grain sources, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [7] - The supply of live pigs will increase in the future, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices [8] - Egg prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term due to factors such as seasonal weakness and increasing production capacity [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures main contract is falling, and there is a short - term supply pattern shift of imported soybeans from tight to loose. Pay attention to policy and supply - demand changes [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal is reducing positions and prices are falling. The supply pattern will shift from tight to loose after May Day. The futures price of soybean meal will be relatively strong in the short - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the May Day holiday, domestic soybean and cotton oil are reducing positions and prices are falling. The supply pattern of imported soybeans will change, and the price of edible oils will fluctuate repeatedly [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - After the May Day holiday, the soybean shortage situation will ease. The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate. Pay attention to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [6] Corn - The supply of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises is low, and the port inventory pressure has decreased. Corn futures may oscillate downward after the release of grain sources, and it is advisable to wait and see [7] Live Pigs - The price of live pig futures has fallen significantly. The supply of live pigs will increase in the future, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is falling steadily, and the futures price is adjusting. Egg prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term due to seasonal and production - capacity factors [9]

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic rubber futures 2509 contract decreased by 0.27% to 14,730 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread widening to 180 CNY/ton [1] - Supply expectations are rising as the new cutting season approaches, while tire manufacturers face operational pressure ahead of the May Day holiday [1] Group 2: Methanol Market - Domestic methanol futures 2509 contract increased by 0.96% to 2,310 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread narrowing to 79 CNY/ton [1] - Methanol production is on the rise, with weekly output averaging 1.899 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 210,100 tons [1] Group 3: Oil Market - Domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract rose by 0.83% to 498.0 CNY/barrel, with market sentiment showing mixed signals [1] - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.46 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 360,000 barrels per day [1] Group 4: Tire Industry - The operating load of domestic tire manufacturers for all-steel tires was 65.79%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.65% [1] - The operating load for semi-steel tires was 72.36%, down 1.84 percentage points week-on-week and significantly down 8.64 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 5: Automotive Industry - In March, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.006 million and 2.915 million units, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 42.9% and 37% [1] - In Q1, cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.470 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.5% and 11.2% [1]