Report Overview - **Report Date**: December 21, 2025 - **Report Title**: "Pigs: Weak Peak Season, Falsification of Pig Shortage Logic" - **Analysts**: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (12.15 - 12.21), the spot market for pigs showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the supply increasing moderately before the Winter Solstice peak season and the demand rising due to cooling and Winter Solstice consumption. The futures market also had a strong - oscillating trend. Next week (12.22 - 12.28), the spot price of pigs will be weakly oscillating due to large supply pressure despite demand boosts. The LH2601 futures contract price is under pressure, with a short - term support level of 10,500 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 11,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review (12.15 - 12.21) 3.1.1 Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 21.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), the price of pigs in Henan was 11.78 yuan/kg (up from 11.43 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). - Before the Winter Solstice peak season, enterprises increased their sales volume, and individual farmers followed suit, resulting in a moderate increase in supply. The demand increased due to cooling and Winter Solstice consumption, and the slaughter volume in the north and south reached a new high. The average national slaughter weight this week was 124.79KG, a 0.16% increase from last week [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - The LH2601 futures contract price was strongly oscillating, with a maximum of 11,495 yuan/ton, a minimum of 11,080 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,150 yuan/ton (down from 11,485 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2601 contract was 630 yuan/ton (up from - 55 yuan/ton last week) [2] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (12.22 - 12.28) 3.2.1 Spot Market - The spot price of pigs will be weakly oscillating. The overall slaughter progress in November was slow, and the increase in feed consumption indicates a large basic stock. Although the cooling and Winter Solstice demand boosted the downstream, the supply increased more before the Winter Solstice peak season, resulting in a weak peak season and large supply pressure. The supply is in a continuous increasing stage, and the demand in December has been fulfilled, but there are still some individual farmers engaging in secondary fattening and holding back pigs. There will be a one - month demand vacuum period in the future, and enterprises are more willing to slaughter and reduce weight in January, so the spot price will continue to be under pressure [3] 3.2.2 Futures Market - The LH2601 contract price closed at 11,150 yuan/ton on December 19. Although the slaughter volume before the Winter Solstice reached a new high this year, the increase in the spot price was less than expected, the supply pressure was still not effectively released, and the discount delivery expectation increased after the Winter Solstice. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level of the LH2601 contract is 10,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 11,500 yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week, the basis was 630 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 monthly spread was - 175 yuan/ton [9] - **Supply Data**: This week's average weight was 124.79KG (up from 124.59KG last week). In October, the pork production was 5.605 billion tons, a 5.5% increase from the previous month, and the pork import was 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% decrease from the previous month [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No relevant information provided. 3. Summary by Category a. Metals - Copper (CU): The main contract basis rate is -0.54%, down 0.28% from yesterday. The spot price is 92,240 [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract basis rate is -1.18%, down 0.50% from yesterday. The spot price is 21,730 [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract basis rate is 0.46%, down 0.02% from yesterday. The spot price is 23,130 [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract basis rate is -0.51%, down 0.39% from yesterday. The spot price is 16,725 [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract basis rate is 2.66%, up 0.38% from yesterday. The spot price is 116,600 [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract basis rate is 6.73%, down 1.38% from yesterday. The spot price is 9,200 [3]. - Lithium Carbonate (LC): The main contract basis rate is -9.03%, up 0.24% from yesterday. The spot price is 97,570 [3]. - Gold (AU): The main contract basis rate is -0.59%, up 0.10% from yesterday. The spot price is 974.68 [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract basis rate is -0.37%, down 0.01% from yesterday. The spot price is 15,463 [3]. b. Steel and Iron Ore - Rebar (RB): The main contract basis rate is 6.24%, down 0.44% from yesterday. The spot price is 3,320 [3]. - Hot Rolled Coil (HC): The main contract basis rate is 0.70%, down 0.38% from yesterday. The spot price is 3,300 [3]. - Iron Ore: The main contract basis rate is 6.92%, down 0.47% from yesterday. The spot price is 831.3 [3]. c. Coal and Coke - Coke: The main contract basis rate is 0.72%, down 1.54% from yesterday. The spot price is 1,615 [3]. - Coking Coal (JIM): The main contract basis rate is -0.80%, down 6.02% from yesterday. The spot price is 1,117.5 [3]. - Thermal Coal (ZC): The main contract basis rate is -9.78%, down 1.12% from yesterday. The spot price is 723.0 [3]. d. Grains and Oils - Soybean (A): The main contract basis rate is -2.5%, up 1.17% from yesterday. The spot price is 3,940 [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract basis rate is 10.67%, unchanged from yesterday. The spot price is 3,040 [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The main contract basis rate is 7.26%, down 0.84% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,510 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil (Ol): The main contract basis rate is 6.20%, down 0.72% from yesterday. The spot price is 9,500 [3]. - Peanut (PK): The main contract basis rate is 17.56%, up 0.26% from yesterday. The spot price is 9,400 [3]. - Palm Oil (P): The main contract basis rate is 0.38%, down 0.07% from yesterday. The spot price is 8,400 [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract basis rate is 4.57%, up 0.76% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,290 [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract basis rate is 2.84%, down 0.26% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,570 [3]. e. Agricultural and Sideline Products - Apple (AP): The main contract basis rate is 13.98%, up 0.51% from yesterday. The spot price is 7,800 [3]. - Egg (JD): The main contract basis rate is 6.31%, up 6.05% from yesterday. The spot price is 3,100 [3]. - Live Pig: The main contract basis rate is 4.64%, up 1.88% from yesterday. The spot price is 11,850 [3]. - Cotton (CF): The main contract basis rate is 8.45%, down 0.31% from yesterday. The spot price is 15,139 [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract basis rate is 5.64%, up 0.37% from yesterday. The spot price is 5,390 [3]. f. Chemicals - Methanol (MA): The main contract basis rate is -0.07%, up 0.21% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,173 [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract basis rate is -3.24%, down 0.23% from yesterday. The spot price is 3,645 [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract basis rate is -1.22%, up 0.14% from yesterday. The spot price is 4,690 [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The main contract basis rate is 8.30%, down 0.43% from yesterday. The spot price is 6,800 [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract basis rate is 1.64%, down 0.40% from yesterday. The spot price is 6,490 [3]. - Short - Fiber (PF): The main contract basis rate is 2.24%, down 0.90% from yesterday. The spot price is 6,310 [3]. - Plastic: The main contract basis rate is 8.09%, up 0.05% from yesterday. The spot price is 7,000 [3]. - PVC (V): The main contract basis rate is 14.80%, down 7.40% from yesterday. The spot price is 5,405 [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract basis rate is -1.76%, up 0.45% from yesterday. The spot price is 15,050 [3]. - 20 - Number Rubber (NR): The main contract basis rate is 4.30%, up 0.60% from yesterday. The spot price is 12,991 [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract basis rate is -3.86%, down 1.04% from yesterday. The spot price is 1,147 [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract basis rate is -1.64%, down 3.10% from yesterday. The spot price is 1,680 [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract basis rate is 0.45%, up 0.11% from yesterday. The spot price is 5,525 [3]. g. Energy - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract basis rate is -8.2%, up 0.13% from yesterday. The spot price is 394.5 [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract basis rate is 7.68%, up 0.32% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,626 [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract basis rate is -1.42%, up 1.96% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,910 [3]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract basis rate is 0.54%, down 0.97% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,947 [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract basis rate is 10.20%, up 3.31% from yesterday. The spot price is 4,528 [3]. h. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract basis rate is 0.05%, up 0.02% from yesterday. The spot price is 4,552.8 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract basis rate is 0.12%, down 0.03% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,998.5 [3]. - CSI 500 (IC): The main contract basis rate is 0.00%, up 0.12% from yesterday. The spot price is 7,100.8 [3].

Report Information - Report Title: All-variety Spread Daily Report [3] - Date: December 17, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, GF Futures Research Institute [3] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Futures price is 5558, spot price is 5482, with a basis rate of 1.39% and a historical quantile of 64.50% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Futures price is 5736, spot price is 5810, with a basis rate of 1.29% and a historical quantile of 39.60% [1] - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Futures price is 3081, spot price is 3280, with a basis rate of 6.45% and a historical quantile of 71.30% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Futures price is 3246, spot price is 3270, with a basis rate of 0.74% and a historical quantile of 28.40% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Futures price is 761, spot price is 832, with a basis rate of 9.38% and a historical quantile of 55.40% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price is 1581, spot price is 1515, with a basis rate of 4.39% and a historical quantile of 88.32% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Futures price is 1139, spot price is 1068, with a basis rate of 6.70% and a historical quantile of 42.10% [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2602)**: Futures price is 91920, spot price is 91700, with a basis of -220, a basis rate of -0.24% and a historical quantile of 27.70% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2602)**: Futures price is 21630, spot price is 21845, with a basis of -215, a basis rate of -0.98% and a historical quantile of 4.79% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Futures price is 2541, spot price is 2788, with a basis of 247, a basis rate of 9.72% and a historical quantile of 82.15% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2601)**: Futures price is 23030, spot price is 23110, with a basis of 80, a basis rate of 0.35% and a historical quantile of 70.20% [1] - **Tin (SN2601)**: Futures price is 320620, spot price is 320500, with a basis of -120, a basis rate of -0.04% and a historical quantile of 46.87% [1] - **Nickel (NI2601)**: Futures price is 112290, spot price is 112350, with a basis of 60, a basis rate of 0.05% and a historical quantile of 53.33% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2602)**: Futures price is 12870, spot price is 12320, with a basis of -4750, a basis rate of -4.72% and a historical quantile of 92.48% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Futures price is 100600, spot price is 95850, with a basis of -4750, a basis rate of -4.72% and a historical quantile of 6.60% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2605)**: Futures price is 835, spot price is 8365, with a basis of 7530, a basis rate of 9.98% and a historical quantile of 56.14% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2602)**: Futures price is 964.7, spot price is 971.4, with a basis of -6.8, a basis rate of -0.69% and a historical quantile of 0.30% [1] - **Silver (AG2602)**: Futures price is 14649.0, spot price is 14666.0, with a basis of -17.0, a basis rate of -0.12% and a historical quantile of 59.20% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Futures price is 2777.0, spot price is 3060, with a basis of 283.0, a basis rate of 10.19% and a historical quantile of 67.90% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Futures price is 7872.0, spot price is 8290, with a basis of 418.0, a basis rate of 5.31% and a historical quantile of 72.10% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Futures price is 8410.0, spot price is 8460, with a basis of 50.0, a basis rate of 0.59% and a historical quantile of 35.40% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM2605)**: Futures price is 2359.0, spot price is 2500, with a basis of 141.0, a basis rate of 5.98% and a historical quantile of 75.90% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI2605)**: Futures price is 9063.0, spot price is 9540, with a basis of 477.0, a basis rate of 5.25% and a historical quantile of 90.50% [1] - **Corn (C2603)**: Futures price is 2202.0, spot price is 2290, with a basis of 88.0, a basis rate of 4.00% and a historical quantile of 76.70% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: Futures price is 2502.0, spot price is 2650, with a basis of 148.0, a basis rate of 5.92% and a historical quantile of 74.70% [1] - **Live Hogs (H2603)**: Futures price is 114

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 12月12日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4260元/吨，V2601合约期货收盘价在4220元/ 吨，目前基差在40元/吨，走强11元/吨，基差处于中性水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 发布日期：2025年12月12日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.46个百分点至79.43%，PVC开工 率继续小幅减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率略有下降，下游制品订单不佳。印度将 关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC 以价换量，只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨后出口签单回落，上周出口签单基 本稳定。本周社会库存略有增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在 调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一 步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。 新增产能上， ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 757.0 | 769.0 | -12.0 | I05-I09 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | | I09 | 733.0 | 745.0 | -12.0 | I09-I01 | -47.0 | -42.5 | -4.5 | | I01 | 780.0 | 787.5 | -7.5 | I01-I05 | 23.0 | 18.5 | 4.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 2.2 基差：图表 p 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2025-03 2025-05 202 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No relevant content provided. 3. Summary by Category Metal Commodities - **Ferrous Metals**: For silicon iron (SF603), the spot price is 5478, the futures price is 5418, the basis is 60, and the basis rate is 1.11%, with a historical quantile of 62.00%. For silicon manganese (SM603), the spot price is 5790, the futures price is 5712, the basis is 78, and the basis rate is 1.37%, with a historical quantile of 40.60%. For rebar (RB2605), the spot price is 3069, the futures price is 3270, the basis is -201, and the basis rate is -6.55%, with a historical quantile of 71.70%. For hot-rolled coil (HC2605), the spot price is 3250, the futures price is 3238, the basis is 12, and the basis rate is 0.37%, with a historical quantile of 22.90%. For iron ore (I2605), the spot price is 834, the futures price is 757, the basis is 77, and the basis rate is 10.19%, with a historical quantile of 59.70%. For coke (J2601), the spot price is 1595, the futures price is 1492, the basis is 103, and the basis rate is 6.72%, with a historical quantile of 94.79%. For coking coal (JM2605), the spot price is 1155, the futures price is 1035, the basis is 120, and the basis rate is 11.59%, with a historical quantile of 57.20% [1]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: For copper (CU2601), the spot price is 92665, the futures price is 92210, the basis is 455, and the basis rate is 0.49%, with a historical quantile of 89.58%. For aluminum (AL2602), the spot price is 21970, the futures price is 21890, the basis is 80, and the basis rate is 0.36%, with a historical quantile of 30.83%. For alumina (AO2601), the spot price is 2804, the futures price is 2469, the basis is 335, and the basis rate is 13.58%, with a historical quantile of 87.66%. For zinc (ZN2601), the spot price is 23040, the futures price is 22995, the basis is 45, and the basis rate is 0.20%, with a historical quantile of 67.29%. For tin (SN2601), the spot price is 320600, the futures price is 320000, the basis is 600, and the basis rate is 0.19%, with a historical quantile of 31.66%. For nickel (NISE0J), the spot price is 116700, the futures price is 115870, the basis is 830, and the basis rate is 0.72%, with a historical quantile of 88.54%. For stainless steel (225602), the spot price is 12970, the futures price is 12500, the basis is 470, and the basis rate is 3.76%, with a historical quantile of 84.97%. For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the spot price is 98880, the futures price is 93500, the basis is -2380, and the basis rate is -2.41%, with a historical quantile of 4.84%. For industrial silicon (SI2601), the spot price is 9200, the futures price is 8585, the basis is 615, and the basis rate is 7.04%, with a historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. Precious Metals - For gold (AU2602), the spot price is 957.9, the futures price is 952.4, the basis is 5.5, and the basis rate is 0.58%, with a historical quantile of 1.30%. For silver (AG2602), the spot price is 14488.0, the futures price is 14447.0, the basis is 41.0, and the basis rate is 0.28%, with a historical quantile of 16.70% [1]. Agricultural Commodities - For soybean meal (M2605), the spot price is 3050, the futures price is 2750, the basis is 300, and the basis rate is 10.91%, with a historical quantile of 68.80%. For soybean oil (Y2605), the spot price is 8430, the futures price is 8036, the basis is 394, and the basis rate is 4.90%, with a historical quantile of 69.20%. For palm oil (P2605), the spot price is 8642, the futures price is 8630, the basis is 12, and the basis rate is 0.14%, with a historical quantile of 23.00%. For rapeseed meal (RM605), the spot price is 2490, the futures price is 2323, the basis is 167, and the basis rate is 7.19%, with a historical quantile of 79.80%. For rapeseed oil (OI605), the spot price is 9890, the futures price is 9306, the basis is 584, and the basis rate is 6.28%, with a historical quantile of 81.00%. For corn (C2601), the spot price is 2300, the futures price is 2243, the basis is 57, and the basis rate is 2.54%, with a historical quantile of 71.50%. For corn starch (CS2601), the spot price is 2650, the futures price is 2523, the basis is 127, and the basis rate is 5.03%, with a historical quantile of 65.30%. For live pigs (H2603), the spot price is 11300, the futures price is 11220, the basis is 80, and the basis rate is 0.71%, with a historical quantile of 47.80%. For eggs (JD2601), the spot price is 3144, the futures price is 3020, the basis is -124, and the basis rate is -3.94%, with a historical quantile of 28.20%. For cotton (CF601), the spot price is 14835, the futures price is 13860, the basis is 975, and the basis rate is 7.03%, with a historical quantile of 52.30%. For sugar (SR605), the spot price is 5480, the futures price is 5245, the basis is 235, and the basis rate is 4.48%, with a historical quantile of 39.10%. For apples (AP605), the spot price is 9505, the futures price is 9000, the basis is 505, and the basis rate is 5.61%, with a historical quantile of 45.31%. For red dates (CJ605), the spot price is 9170, the futures price is 8600, the basis is 570, and the basis rate is 6.63%, with a historical quantile of 67.50% [1]. Energy and Chemical Commodities - For paraxylene (PX603), the spot price is 6816, the futures price is 6801, the basis is 15, and the basis rate is 0.22%, with a historical quantile of 23.60%. For PTA (TA601), the spot price is 4664, the futures price is 4650, the basis is 14, and the basis rate is 0.30%, with a historical quantile of 50.90%. For ethylene glycol (EG2601), the spot price is 3599, the futures price is 3580, the basis is 19, and the basis rate is 0.53%, with a historical quantile of 51.70%. For polyester staple fiber (PF602), the spot price is 6260, the futures price is 6122, the basis is 138, and the basis rate is 2.25%, with a historical quantile of 75.40%. For styrene (EB2601), the spot price is 6660, the futures price is 6505, the basis is 155, and the basis rate is 2.38%, with a historical quantile of 59.00%. For methanol (MA601), the spot price is 2105, the futures price is 2074, the basis is 31, and the basis rate is 1.49%, with a historical quantile of 58.20%. For urea (UR601), the spot price is 1710, the futures price is 1638, the basis is 72, and the basis rate is 4.40%, with a historical quantile of 39.10%. For LLDPE (L2605), the spot price is 6625, the futures price is 6534, the basis is 91, and the basis rate is 1.39%, with a historical quantile of 51.70%. For PP (PP2601), the spot price is 6325, the futures price is 6177, the basis is 148, and the basis rate is 2.40%, with a historical quantile of 66.60%. For PVC (V2601), the spot price is 4300, the futures price is 4276, the basis is 24, and the basis rate is 0.56%, with a historical quantile of 84.00%. For caustic soda (SH603), the spot price is 2219, the futures price is 2113, the basis is 106, and the basis rate is 5.00%, with a historical quantile of 63.80%. For LPG (PG2601), the spot price is 4448, the futures price is 4220, the basis is 228, and the basis rate is 5.40%, with a historical quantile of 45.50%. For asphalt (BU2602), the spot price is 2960, the futures price is 2930, the basis is 30, and the basis rate is 1.01%, with a historical quantile of 45.40%. For butadiene rubber (BR2602), the spot price is 10710, the futures price is 10600, the basis is 110, and the basis rate is 1.03%, with a historical quantile of 15.80%. For float glass (FG601), the spot price is 960, the futures price is 956, the basis is 4, and the basis rate is 0.42%, with a historical quantile of 77.31%. For soda ash (SA601), the spot price is 1113, the futures price is 1103, the basis is 10, and the basis rate is 0.90%, with a historical quantile of 53.15%. For natural rubber (RU2605), the spot price is 15185, the futures price is 14900, the basis is -285, and the basis rate is -1.91%, with a historical quantile of 80.20% [1]. Financial Futures - For IF2512.CFE, the spot price is 4552.2, the futures price is 4539.6, the basis is -12.6, and the basis rate is -0.28%, with a historical quantile of 33.70%. For IH2512.CFE, the spot price is 2977.0, the futures price is 2969.8, the basis is -7.2, and the basis rate is -0.24%, with a historical quantile of 28.20%. For IC2512.CFE, the spot price is 7082.9, the futures price is 7074.4, the basis is -8.5, and the basis rate is -0.12%, with a historical quantile of 71.40%. For IM2512.CFE, the spot price is 7312.0, the futures price is 7304.6, the basis is -7.4, and the basis rate is -0.10%, with a historical quantile of 75.60%. For 2 - year bond (T22603), the spot price is 102.48, the futures price is 100.08, the basis is -0.08, and the basis rate is -0.08%, with a historical quantile of 8.50%. For 5 - year bond (TF2603), the spot price is 105.90, the futures price is 99.60, the basis is -0.07, and the basis rate is -0.07%, with a historical quantile of 17.60%. For 10 - year bond (T2603), the spot price is 108.13, the futures price is 100.45, the basis is 0.02, and the basis rate is 0.02%, with a historical quantile of 18.10%. For 30 - year bond (TL2603), the spot price is 128.04, the futures price is 113.27, the basis is 0.47, and the basis rate is 0.41%, with a historical quantile of 70.40% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the pure benzene market, there is significant short - term arrival pressure in China, leading to accelerated accumulation of port inventories. The most critical period for overseas gasoline has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 remains weak, and downstream operating rates are at a low level during the off - season. - In the styrene market, the port basis continues to be strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, and port inventories continue to decline. Downstream operating rates show differentiation, with EPS operating rate rebounding slightly, ABS operating rate decreasing due to inventory pressure, and PS operating rate continuing to rise at the end of the year [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 142 yuan/ton (+48), and the spot - M2 spread is - 185 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 204 yuan/ton (+73 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 115 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 dollars/ton (+3 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 181.0 dollars/ton (+1.1 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 19 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different trends, with CPL operating rate dropping to the lowest level of the year, phenol operating rate rising, and aniline and adipic acid operating rates fluctuating within a range [1][3]. - Styrene: East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (-13,800 tons), East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (-8,600 tons), and the operating rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - EPS: Production profit is 38 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.36% (+1.61%) [2]. - PS: Production profit is - 162 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 59.00% (+1.40%) [2]. - ABS: Production profit is - 865 yuan/ton (-69 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 68.30% (-2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 450 yuan/ton (+20), and the operating rate is 79.15% (-7.53%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 977 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate is 82.00% (+1.00%) [1]. - Aniline: Production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and the operating rate is 77.23% (+0.04%) [1]. - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1188 yuan/ton (+45), and the operating rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: None. - Basis and Inter - period: Go for long - short spread trading on EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The port inventory pressure of pure benzene remains high, and attention should be paid to the subsequent shipments from South Korea. The short - term arrival pressure of pure benzene in China is large, leading to an accelerated accumulation of port inventory. The most critical period for overseas gasoline has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market still needs to be repaired. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the downstream operating rates are generally low during the off - season. For styrene, it maintains a low operating rate, and the port inventory continues to decline. The downstream demand shows a mixed performance, with EPS operating rate slightly rebounding during the off - season but still facing inventory pressure, ABS operating rate decreasing due to continuous inventory pressure, and PS operating rate continuing to rise at the end of the year as the inventory pressure is alleviated [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 190 yuan/ton (- 27), and the East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 190 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton). The EB main contract basis is 131 yuan/ton (- 38 yuan/ton) [1] II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - The production profit of non - integrated styrene units is - 15 yuan/ton (+ 36 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The CFR China processing fee for pure benzene is 115 dollars/ton (- 1 dollar/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 110 dollars/ton (- 1 dollar/ton), with the US - South Korea price difference being 179.9 dollars/ton (+ 0.0 dollars/ton) [1] III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene port inventory is 26.00 tons (+ 3.60 tons), and the styrene East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (- 13,800 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (- 8,600 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The pure benzene downstream operating rates show a mixed performance: the caprolactam operating rate is 79.15% (- 7.53%), the phenol operating rate is 82.00% (+ 1.00%), the aniline operating rate is 77.23% (+ 0.04%), and the adipic acid operating rate is 60.00% (+ 0.60%). The styrene operating rate is 68.9% (+ 1.6%) [1] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Among the styrene downstream hard plastics: the EPS production profit is 18 yuan/ton (+ 26 yuan/ton), the PS production profit is - 182 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton), and the ABS production profit is - 797 yuan/ton (- 71 yuan/ton). The EPS operating rate is 56.36% (+ 1.61%), the PS operating rate is 59.00% (+ 1.40%), and the ABS operating rate is 68.30% (- 2.90%) [2] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - The production profit of caprolactam is - 470 yuan/ton (- 50), the production profit of phenol - acetone is - 977 yuan/ton (- 150), the production profit of aniline is 848 yuan/ton (+ 95), and the production profit of adipic acid is - 1233 yuan/ton (- 45) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: Go long on the inter - period spread of EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the capital flow in various futures markets as of December 8, highlighting significant inflows and outflows across different commodities, indicating market trends and investor sentiment [1]. Group 1: Capital Flow Summary - Copper (CU) saw the highest capital inflow of 3.02 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - Styrene (EB) and Zinc (ZN) followed with inflows of 0.87 billion yuan and 0.71 billion yuan, respectively, suggesting positive market sentiment for these commodities [1]. - On the other hand, commodities like palm oil (P), tin (SN), and urea (UR) experienced significant outflows, with capital reductions of 1.06 billion yuan, 1.16 billion yuan, and 0.95 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting bearish sentiment [1]. Group 2: Price and Basis Rate Analysis - The report includes detailed pricing data for various commodities, such as iron ore (I) priced at 787 yuan per ton with a basis rate of 3.48% [5]. - The futures price for rebar (RB) is noted at 3280 yuan per ton, with a basis rate of 5.93%, indicating a positive outlook for this sector [5]. - The report also highlights the price movements of other commodities, such as aluminum (AL) and nickel (NI), with respective prices of 21920 yuan per ton and 122690 yuan per ton, showing slight declines in their basis rates [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene: Overseas gasoline supply is gradually recovering, leading to high short - term arrival pressure of pure benzene and a faster accumulation rate of port inventory. Domestic cracking load is low, and pure benzene production has declined. Downstream production is in the off - season and has further decreased, with styrene maintaining low - load maintenance, CPL production dropping to the lowest level of the year, phenol production rising, and aniline and adipic acid production fluctuating within a range [2] - Styrene: Styrene is still in the low - production maintenance stage, and the restart plan has been postponed. The port basis has strengthened slightly again, and factory inventory has declined again, but port inventory has not continued to be destocked, and there is still arrival pressure. Downstream enterprise procurement has driven the basis to strengthen. The downstream production shows differentiation. EPS production has a slight rebound in the off - season, but there is still inventory pressure; ABS production has decreased due to continuous finished - product inventory pressure; PS production has continued to rise since the end of the year as the finished - product inventory pressure has been alleviated [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The report presents figures related to the basis of pure benzene and EB, including the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract basis, and EB continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [7][12][16] 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Figures cover various aspects such as naphtha processing fees, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated device production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, pure benzene import profit, and styrene import profit [19][21][29] 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Production Rate - For pure benzene, it shows the inventory in East China ports and the production rate. For styrene, it includes the inventory in East China ports, East China commercial inventory, factory inventory, and the production rate [35][40][41] 3.4 Styrene Downstream Production and Production Profits - Covers the production rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [46][47][51] 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Production and Production Profits - Includes the production rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products, as well as the production profits of related products such as PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [55][62][70] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [3] - Basis and inter - period: Consider a positive inter - period spread arbitrage for EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low [3] - Cross - variety: Consider widening the spread for EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [3]