专题报告 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2.28 美伊冲击升级对主要大宗商品的 影响 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 2月28日，美国与以色列联合对伊朗发动大规模军事打击， 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，伊朗称将开启最猛烈进 攻，地缘政治格局遭遇数十年来最剧烈冲击。 ⚫ 对于此次事件对大宗商品的影响，我们认为此地缘政策事 件对能化影响较大，对贵金属和有色金属会产生脉冲式的 冲击，后续需重点跟踪美伊冲突演变。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 6 2026 年 3 月 2 日 专题报告 2 月 28 日，美国与以色列联合对伊朗发动大规模军事打击，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇 袭身亡，伊朗称将开启最猛烈进攻，地缘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including an overview of trading volume and open interest in the futures market and an in - depth exploration of the micro - liquidity of different futures types such as stock indices, treasury bonds, energy and chemicals, black commodities, precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products [1][21] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market Trading Volume and Open Interest Overview - The report presents graphs of commodity futures trading volume, open interest, trading volume - to - open interest ratio, and the year - on - year change of commodity futures trading volume. It also provides tables showing the price, trading volume, open interest, and week - on - week changes of different commodity and financial futures sectors [4][12][14] - In the commodity sector, different sub - sectors show various price trends, trading volume, and open - interest changes. For example, the precious metals sector has a price increase of 4.26%, while the coal, coke, steel, and ore sub - sector in the black commodities has a price decrease of 2.35% [12] - In the financial futures sector, different varieties also have different price changes and trading volume and open - interest trends. For instance, the price of CSI 1000 futures has a 2.27% increase [14] 3.2 Futures Market Micro - liquidity 3.2.1 Stock Indices - The report provides a table of micro - liquidity - related indicators for stock index futures' main contracts, including spread change units, spread week - on - week changes, average sell - one order amounts, and average buy - one order amounts. For example, for the Shanghai 50 futures, the spread change unit is 1.815/2.2838, and the spread week - on - week change is - 0.4688 [21] 3.2.2 Treasury Bonds - A table of micro - liquidity - related indicators for treasury bond futures' main contracts is presented, including spread change units, spread week - on - week changes, average sell - one order amounts, and average buy - one order amounts. For example, for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the spread change unit is 1.0022/1.0023, and the spread week - on - week change is - 0.0001 [26] 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - The report shows a table of micro - liquidity - related indicators for the main contracts of the energy and chemicals sector, including spread change units, spread week - on - week changes, average sell - one order amounts, and average buy - one order amounts. For example, for methanol futures, the spread change unit is 1.001/1.002, and the spread week - on - week change is - 0.001 [30] 3.2.4 Black Commodities - A table of micro - liquidity - related indicators for the main contracts of the black commodities sector is provided, including spread change units, spread week - on - week changes, average sell - one order amounts, and average buy - one order amounts. For example, for iron ore futures, the spread change unit is 1.0016/1.0022, and the spread week - on - week change is - 0.0006 [34] 3.2.5 Precious Metals and Non - ferrous Metals - The report presents a table of micro - liquidity - related indicators for the main contracts of the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sector, including spread change units, spread week - on - week changes, average sell - one order amounts, and average buy - one order amounts. For example, for Shanghai aluminum futures, the spread change unit is 1.0536/1.05, and the spread week - on - week change is 0.0036 [41] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products - A table of micro - liquidity - related indicators for the main contracts of the agricultural products sector is shown, including spread change units, spread week - on - week changes, average sell - one order amounts, and average buy - one order amounts. For example, for corn futures, the spread change unit is 1.0006/1.0006, and the spread week - on - week change is 0 [46]

Group 1: Macroeconomics - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England maintained their benchmark interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its three key interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, while the BoE's decision, with four out of nine policymakers voting for a 25 - basis - point cut, signaled a dovish stance [1]. - The UK's GDP growth forecast was downgraded to 0.9%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.3%, indicating weak domestic demand. The visit of UK's Starmer to China is seen as a practical choice to break through growth bottlenecks [2]. - The US 12 - month JOLTS job openings reached a new low since September 2020, and the US Challenger job cuts in January hit a record high for the same period since 2009, surging 205% month - on - month [4][5]. Group 2: Exchange Rates - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate showed a trend of first depreciation and then appreciation. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9408 at 16:30, down 32 basis points, and the night - session closed at 6.9363. The central parity rate was set at 6.9570, down 37 basis points [3]. - Due to weak US employment data and AI - related panic, the market's risk - aversion demand increased, supporting the US dollar index. The RMB's appreciation momentum may decline after the holiday as seasonal settlement demand weakens [3]. - Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures - The stock index fell collectively, with the large - cap index relatively more resilient. The trading volume in the two markets dropped to around 2.1 trillion yuan. The short - term stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with the large - cap index outperforming, but the adjustment range is limited [4][5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The open - market operation injected cross - festival funds, and the money market was stable. The yield of spot bonds declined across the board. The bond market may gain upward momentum as the A - share market is likely to adjust [5][6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (European Routes) - The main contract EC2604 of container shipping on European routes fluctuated widely. The market's core contradiction lies in the game between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. Short - term, it will maintain a volatile pattern with limited upside [6][7][8]. - It is recommended to shift long positions on the medium - term during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high levels. Short - term, consider shorting lightly at high levels [6][8]. Group 6: New Energy (Carbonate Lithium and Industrial Silicon) - Carbonate lithium futures prices fell, with a daily decline of 9.81%. The trading volume increased by 70.48%, and the open interest decreased by 30,100 lots. It is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival to avoid risks [9]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. They are expected to trade in a narrow range, with industrial silicon between 8300 - 9100 and polysilicon between 48000 - 52000 [10][11][13]. Group 7: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fell. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to replenish inventory when prices decline. The copper market is affected by factors such as inventory changes and holiday - related demand [15][16][20]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate, with support at 23000 - 23500. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a long - term weakening trend. Cast aluminum alloy prices are also expected to oscillate [21][22][23]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the future. Nickel - stainless steel prices are affected by the broader market and are expected to be weak and volatile. Tin prices are likely to follow the sector in wide - range adjustments [23][24][26]. - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lacking upward drivers before the Spring Festival [26][27]. Group 8: Oils and Fats, and Feeds - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is strong. Domestic soybean meal is expected to rebound in the short - term, and rapeseed meal is difficult to have an independent upward trend. It is recommended to participate in long positions in spreads and single - side trades lightly [28]. - For oils, the short - term is expected to be in a consolidation phase. The overall situation in the first quarter is still supported, and short - selling is not recommended [29]. Group 9: Energy and Oil & Gas - Fuel oil is in a weak operation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly in the bunkering market. The long - term high - sulfur cracking trend is downward [31]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable. The inventory decline provides a slight boost [31][32]. - Asphalt prices are struggling to rise. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile state, with limited upside and downside [32][33][34]. Group 10: Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices in NYMEX retreated significantly. The short - term "tightening trade" does not change the long - term "loosening trend." Attention should be paid to position control [34][35][36]. - Gold and silver prices fell under pressure. In the short - term, they are weak and may continue to decline. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38]. Group 11: Chemicals - Pulp and offset paper futures prices rebounded from lows. It is recommended to hold short positions in pulp futures and consider short - term long positions in offset paper futures [39][40]. - LPG prices are affected by the US - Iran negotiation. Attention should be paid to the negotiation results [40][41][42]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be bought on dips. The processing fee of PTA is expected to narrow [43][44][45]. - MEG - bottle chips are weakly volatile. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound state [45][46]. - Methanol is recommended to be observed on the long - side. 3 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads can be shorted, and the MTO spread can be widened [46][47][48]. - Plastics and PP are weakly volatile. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand recovery [48][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical and demand factors [49][50][52]. - Rubber prices are supported at the bottom. It is recommended to be lightly - positioned before the long holiday and consider option strategies [53][57][81]. - Urea prices are expected to correct in the short - term. It is recommended to exit long positions [57][58]. - Glass and soda ash are weakly volatile. Soda ash is in an oscillating state, and glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [58][59][60]. - Propylene is affected by cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to risks [60][61]. Group 12: Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a state of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weakly volatile. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 3050 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils 2605 is between 3200 - 3350 [62]. - Iron ore is in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the Spring Festival [63][64]. - Coking coal and coke prices fell. The short - term rebound has limited sustainability [64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. The price range of ferrosilicon 05 is between 5400 - 5900, and that of ferromanganese 05 is between 5700 - 6100 [65][66][67]. Group 13: Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hog prices are in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to observe before clear demand signals and consider spread strategies [69]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong but are restricted by the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips [70][71][72]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited upward space, with pressure at the 60 - day moving average [72][73]. - Egg prices fell below the previous low. It is recommended to sell call options on JD2603 - C - 3100 [74]. - Apple prices are likely to be strong. The consumption peak is coming to an end, but the delivery contradiction provides support [81][82][83]. - Red date prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short - term and face pressure in the long - term [84][85]. - Log prices may rise. It is recommended to try long positions on dips and sell put options [86][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints Market Logic - Bullish on the stock market at the beginning of the year due to five reasons, including the end of concerns about yen carry - trade after the yen interest - rate hike, the Fed's shift to "technical expansion of the balance sheet", potential institutional capital inflows at the beginning of the year, proactive fiscal policy in China, and the potential for A - share valuation and profit repair. Hong Kong stocks have additional advantages of low valuation and the end of the解禁 peak, and commodities are expected to remain strong due to the revaluation of physical assets [6]. - In the US, the real GDP growth rate in Q3 reached 4.3%, higher than expected. Growth was driven by personal consumption, net exports, and government spending. However, there are internal economic disparities, and caution is needed due to potential temporary factors and a possible government shutdown in Q4 [7]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark, driven by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, narrowing of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, and improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. This is a sustainable trend, but short - term over - adjustment risks need to be watched [8]. - From January to November 2025 in China, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, but the profit decreased by 13.1% in November. There are significant differences in industry performance, with the export and high - tech manufacturing sectors supporting profits, while domestic - demand - related industries dragging down the overall growth [9]. - From a meso - economic perspective, the high - frequency economic activity index is at a high level in recent years but has declined significantly. Land transaction area has increased, while traditional industries such as real estate, infrastructure, and some key anti - involution products are under pressure [10]. Logic of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Logic | Risk Points | Allocation Suggestion | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stocks | Medium - to long - term: Global fiscal and monetary policies are jointly exerting force, China's PPI and industrial enterprise profits have bottomed out, capital is flowing, and global demand is stable. Short - term: Expectations of further Fed rate cuts, new valuation space in the new year, and the end of concerns about yen carry - trade. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term increase in allocation, optimistic about the pre - Spring Festival market [11]. | | Bonds | Medium - to long - term: Limited domestic rate - cut space, inflation and economic improvement due to the unified market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect. Short - term: Bond yields have risen significantly, and economic momentum lacks explosiveness. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term reduction in allocation [11]. | | Commodities | Medium - to long - term: Fiscal and monetary policies will drive PPI to turn positive next year, Fed rate cuts will weaken the US dollar, and short - duration commodities are affected by real - world factors. Short - term: Abundant liquidity leads to the revaluation of physical assets such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals, while the demand for the black - chain is weak. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term increase in allocation of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, trading opportunities in anti - involution - related varieties [11]. | 3. Summary by Directory 01 Core Viewpoints - **Market Logic**: Bullish on the stock market at the beginning of the year, analyze the US economic situation, the RMB exchange - rate trend, China's industrial enterprise profit status, and meso - economic indicators [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Logic of Major Asset Classes**: Provide investment logic, risk points, and allocation suggestions for stocks, bonds, and commodities [11]. 02 Quantitative Analysis - **Investment Index Performance**: Present the performance of different asset classes in terms of recent returns (weekly, monthly, year - to - date, quarterly), drawdowns, Sharpe ratios, and Calmar ratios [22]. - **Valuation, Volatility, and Speculation Degree**: Analyze the valuation, volatility, trend smoothness, and speculation degree of different asset classes, including the original values and their percentile rankings over one - year and three - year periods [23]. - **Stock - Futures Linkage**: Compare the performance of commodity - related indices and stock - related indices in terms of weekly, monthly, and year - to - date returns [25]. 03 Macro - overview - **Domestic Situation**: In November, the unemployment rate remained stable, the CPI continued to rise, the M1 growth rate decreased significantly, and the PMI showed a slight rebound [27][33]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US PMI decreased in November, and the US - Europe interest - rate spread and risk indicators are analyzed [36][39]. 04 Meso - data - **Economic Activity**: In November, industrial added value decreased slightly compared to October, and indicators such as flight volume, subway passenger volume, and the high - frequency economic activity index are presented [46]. - **Real Estate**: Multiple real - estate indicators are at the bottom, while PVC demand is at a high level, including land transaction area, housing sales area, and demand for building materials [49]. - **Shipping and Exports**: Shipping freight indices and export data of some key commodities are presented, including CCFI, CICFI, the Belt and Road trade - volume index, and the export growth rate of home appliances, integrated circuits, and automobiles [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the employment market recovered, weakening the rate - cut expectation. Domestically, the government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task next year. However, the domestic demand in November was weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: Although there is an expectation that the RMB will "break 7 and enter 6" in 2026, there are three potential risks. The RMB's real purchasing power is underestimated, and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread is the core trigger for its appreciation. The attractiveness of the capital market has become a key variable for the exchange - rate trend [4]. - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the market sentiment has improved, there is still pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end and tightened capital [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market. Hold mid - term long positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, weighing between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", waiting for a clear pre - holiday driver [9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: In the medium - to - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the large futures - spot price difference and light spot trading [16]. - **Gold & Silver**: In the short term, gold is in a relatively strong state after breaking through the previous high, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - to - long term, maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price has exceeded the expected range. After reaching a new high, the long - short game intensifies, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to run weakly. For cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock [24]. - **Tin**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to operate within the range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, beware of sharp fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, there are opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, with value for long - term bottom - fishing. Polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals, and new registered warehouse receipts should be monitored [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the rebar 2605 contract between 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract between 3000 - 3400 [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to run within a range, with limited upside space after valuation repair [33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, if steel mills resume production quickly, the supply - demand structure is expected to improve [35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and they may follow the steel - price trend [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is neutral. The "breaking 7" of the RMB brings macro - level benefits, and the price has rebounded from a low level. For offset - paper futures, the market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to wait and see or try short - term long positions [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the situation [43]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, with an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation, and the follow - up should focus on relevant news [56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - term出栏 pressure remains, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a strong trend [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market soybeans are waiting for the January USDA report, and the internal - market soybean meal should focus on the supply increase from state reserves. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they will continue to fluctuate. Palm oil is relatively strong in the sector, and attention should be paid to the production and biodiesel market information [70]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is gradually digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, some farmers are culling hens. It is recommended to take a light - position long position if betting on a rebound [74][75]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: In the short term, the jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is loose, and the price will be under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to issues such as the relaxation of rare - earth magnet exports to the US, TikTok's joint - venture establishment in the US, and opposed the US's additional 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0066 on the previous trading day, and the mid - price rose. Japan raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year and is approaching the 2% inflation target [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed up on the previous trading day, and the market sentiment improved. However, there is pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond closed down on Thursday, and the trading volume of medium - and long - term varieties continued to shrink. The market adheres to a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures market fluctuates between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", with spot - price increase games and geopolitical disturbances [9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to limit positions. The long - term prospects of platinum are good, but beware of short - term adjustment risks [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, while the domestic night - session was active. Silver rose sharply. Pay attention to the appointment of the new Fed chairman and economic data [17]. - **Copper**: The CSPT did not set a spot - purchase guidance price for Q1 2026. The copper price has reached a new high, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [18][19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term, alumina is in an over - supply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the aluminum - price trend [20][21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strong support below. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, but the short - term raw - material supply is tight. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They showed a slight correction and are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel - ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is relatively stable [23][24]. - **Tin**: It fluctuated widely at a high level. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to recover in December, and the demand has no obvious increase in the short term [25][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price decreased, and the trading volume and open interest declined. The industry is in a state of production increase and inventory reduction [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals. Pay attention to new registered warehouse receipts [27][28]. - **Lead**: The lead price rebounded slightly. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 [28][29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price rebounded due to the rise of coking coal and iron ore prices and then fluctuated. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the steel - mill inventory is low. The iron - water production is expected to bottom out, and the price is expected to run within a range [32][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking - coal inventory structure is deteriorating, and the coke's third - round price cut has been fully implemented. As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve [34][35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They rebounded from the bottom last week due to policy and cost factors. The supply may decrease, and the demand is expected to decline [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price rebounded from a low level, and the offset - paper market sentiment improved. The port pulp inventory is decreasing, and some pulp mills have reduced prices [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price [42][43]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuated, and the fundamentals were stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern, and PTA's production has decreased significantly. The PTA processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, and styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant news [54][56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price showed regional differences. The long - term can be bullish, but focus on the short - to - medium - term fundamentals [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. The soybean supply is expected to be stable, and the rapeseed supply is low. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. Palm oil production is expected to decline, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall market will continue to fluctuate [70]. - **Cotton**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic cotton price rose. The new - season cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic sugar price fell. In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The futures price was stable, and the spot price was mainly stable. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and some farmers are culling hens [74][75]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the spot price was stable. The consumption has slowed down, and wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: The new - jujube harvest is basically completed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term supply - demand is loose [78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - Short - term, industrial enterprise profit growth faces pressure, but may improve in 2025 with policy implementation. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10, with a mild appreciation rhythm. The stock index is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the bond market may be affected by policy expectations [2][4]. Commodities Metals - Platinum and palladium are likely to be weak in the short term, with investment attributes as the main driver. Gold and silver are expected to rise in the long - term, but silver may face short - term profit - taking pressure. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina may be weak. Zinc is expected to be strong, and nickel and stainless steel will continue to oscillate. Tin prices are strongly driven by funds, and short - term shorting is not recommended. Lithium carbonate prices may experience a short - term correction [12][16][18][20]. Black Metals - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500. Iron ore prices have limited downside in the short term. Coking coal and coke prices may face short - term pressure, and ferroalloys are expected to be weakly oscillatory [30][31][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate downward in the long - term, with short - term multi - empty factors in balance. LPG is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern. PX - PTA has a relatively good supply - demand structure, but PTA processing fee recovery space is limited. MEG is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the valuation is under pressure in the long - term. Methanol 01 maintains a weak expectation. PP and PE are expected to be oscillatory, with PE showing a weakening trend. EB is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. Fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [40][41][43][46][50]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be affected by policy in the long - term, but in the short - term, the near - month delivery pressure persists. Oilseeds and oils are expected to oscillate, waiting for market guidance. Cotton prices have limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level. Sugar prices remain weak, eggs are expected to be bearish in the long - term, apples maintain a strong pattern, and jujubes may have limited downside in the short - term [79][80][81][83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Pay attention to US PCE inflation data. China - France high - level meetings are held, and the US employment market shows a "no - firing, no - hiring" pattern. There are rumors that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December, and the EU plans to build a unified capital market [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.069 on the previous trading day, down 29 basis points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was raised by 21 basis points. Short - term, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated strongly on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising 0.34%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1,210.02 billion yuan. Short - term, the stock index is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the release of PCE data [4][5][7]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds closed down on Thursday, with the 30 - year yield reaching a high point. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase was 180.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. Short - term, the market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting [7]. Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping market fluctuated slightly on December 4. The 02 contract has limited upward space, and the far - month contracts are under pressure from the expected resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The market is affected by multiple factors, with long - short factors competing [8][9][10]. Commodities Metals Platinum and Palladium - NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts closed down at night. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is about 89%. Short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and prices mainly follow gold and silver [12]. Gold and Silver - London gold and silver prices showed a pattern of gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is high. Long - term, precious metal prices are expected to rise, but short - term, silver may face profit - taking pressure [13][14][16]. Copper - Overnight, Comex copper, LME copper, etc. had different trends. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors [17][18]. Aluminum and Related Products - Shanghai aluminum closed up, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly oscillatory [20][21]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc closed up. The ADP data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, supply may contract, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strongly oscillatory [21][22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel and stainless steel oscillated. Nickel ore is expected to be stable and strong, and the new - energy sector has limited support. Stainless steel fundamentals have limited improvement, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and the December interest - rate cut expectation [22][23][24]. Tin - Shanghai tin was strongly driven by funds. The ADP data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, and the supply side has problems. Short - term, shorting is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the 315,000 yuan level [25]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures contract closed up slightly. The spot market sentiment improved, but the price may experience a short - term correction [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to environmental protection. Polysilicon's short - term trading focuses on the "warehouse receipt inventory and open interest" game [27][28]. Lead - Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly and rose slightly at night. The smelting side has production cuts, and the inventory has decreased. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,400 [29]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices oscillated strongly. The supply - demand balance is improving marginally, but the profit of steel enterprises is declining. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500 [30][31]. Iron Ore - Iron ore oscillated, and the industrial contradictions were alleviated. The steel demand is in the off - season, and the steel mill's production cut and profit recovery provide support. The short - term price has limited downside [32][34]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke contracts completed the main contract change. Coking coal supply is in a slight surplus, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Coking coal 01 is in a short - term bearish trend, while the 05 contract has long - term multi - allocation value [35][36]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded. The steel mill's profitability is declining, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded. The market is affected by the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and the US - Russia negotiation. Long - term, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [40][41]. LPG - LPG prices maintained an oscillatory pattern. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. The price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [42][43]. PTA - PX - PX supply decreased slightly, and PTA supply increased. The demand for polyester is high, and PTA processing fees have been repaired. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans and the dynamics of blending oil [44][46]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG supply increased, and the demand for polyester is high. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the long - term valuation is under pressure [47][50]. Methanol - Methanol 01 maintained a weak expectation. The price rebounded due to the shutdown in Iran. The subsequent game focuses on unloading speed, inland demand, and Iranian shipping volume [51][52]. PP - PP prices were weak in the spot market. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand is weak. The current valuation is low, and shorting is not recommended [53][55]. PE - PE prices returned to a weak oscillatory pattern. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to be weakly oscillatory [56][57]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene is in a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the export demand of styrene and the terminal demand [58][59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply and demand of fuel oil are affected by multiple factors [60][61][62]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices declined slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The winter - storage policy is about to be introduced, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [62][64]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog futures prices declined. The northern and southern pig markets showed different trends. Policy may affect long - term supply, but near - month delivery pressure persists [79][80]. Oilseeds - The external market of oilseeds oscillated weakly, and the domestic market followed. The supply of imported soybeans and the demand for domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by multiple factors. Attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement [81][82]. Oils - The domestic oils market oscillated. The supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by different factors. The price is expected to continue to oscillate, waiting for data guidance [83]. Cotton - ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton prices declined. The new cotton is accelerating to the market, and the downstream has resilience. The cotton price has limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level [84]. Sugar - International and domestic sugar prices were weak. The global sugar supply is in excess, and the price is expected to remain weak [85][86]. Eggs - Egg futures prices remained unchanged. The market demand has recovered, and the inventory has been cleared. The long - term egg production capacity is still in excess, and the price is expected to be bearish [87]. Apples - Apple futures prices declined, but the strong pattern remains. The inventory of late - Fuji apples decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [88][89]. Jujubes - Jujube prices oscillated at a low level. The new jujubes are being harvested, and the price may have limited downside in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the final production [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 21, 2025, including the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. [1][5][22][28][39][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis of power coal from November 14 to November 20, 2025, was 32.6 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil from November 14 to November 20, 2025, are presented, along with their price ratios on some dates [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 14 to November 20, 2025, shows different values and trends [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 14 to November 20, 2025, are presented [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, with a note on the rebar's main contract months [21] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 14 to November 20, 2025, are presented [21] - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 14 to November 20, 2025, shows different values [22] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 14 to November 20, 2025, is provided [30] 3.4.2 London Market - On November 20, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the London market are presented [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 14 to November 20, 2025, is provided [39] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [39] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from November 14 to November 20, 2025, are presented [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 14 to November 20, 2025, is provided [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [50]

Core Insights - The main futures contract for iron ore has reached a nearly two-week low, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The inventory of five major steel products has ended a four-week declining trend, suggesting a change in supply and demand balance [1] - Steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is decreasing, raising questions about the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period for the black futures market [1] Group 1 - The iron ore main contract has hit a new low, reflecting market pressures [1] - The five major steel product inventories have reversed their downward trend, which could impact pricing and production strategies [1] - There is a notable decline in steel mills' inventory replenishment intentions, which may affect future market stability [1]