Currency Market Overview - The Euro is trading slightly lower against the US Dollar around 1.1765 during the European session [1] - The Australian Dollar is accelerating its decline towards 0.6500 in the Asian session [1] - The US Dollar is showing positive momentum against the Canadian Dollar, rising to the range of 1.3920-1.3925 [1] - The US Dollar has rebounded above 144.50 against the Japanese Yen [1] - The British Pound has increased for the fourth consecutive day against the US Dollar [1] Key News on Currencies Japanese Yen - Fitch Ratings states that a significant reduction in auto tariffs is necessary for a trade agreement between Japan and the US [2] - Moody's maintains that the Bank of Japan is likely to continue raising interest rates, but weak wage data complicates the situation [2] Australian Dollar - ING reports that ongoing inflation slowdown opens a window for the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider rate cuts [3] - Analysts warn that strong employment data in Australia raises concerns for the Reserve Bank's dovish stance [3] Other Economic Indicators - Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves increased to $152.6 billion at the end of June [4] - Thailand's consumer price index in June fell more than expected [4] - President Putin calls for expanded local currency settlements and proposes the creation of a new BRICS investment platform [4] - Economists predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will adopt a "dovish pause" this week to allow for economic assessment [4] Technical Analysis - The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) remains in the upper half of an ascending regression channel, with the RSI around 60 indicating a bullish tendency, though lacking momentum [5] - Key resistance levels for EUR/USD are at 1.1840 and 1.1900, while support levels are at 1.1740, 1.1700, and 1.1630 [5] - The USD/JPY is forming a symmetrical triangle, with the 50-day EMA at 144.90 acting as immediate resistance [5] - A breakout above this area could pave the way for a bullish trend towards the triangle's upper boundary at 146.50-147.00 [5] Australian Dollar Technicals - If the AUD/USD breaks the 0.6535-0.6545 range, it will activate a double top pattern, confirming a deeper correction with a target at 0.6510 [6] - For a bullish trend to resume, the price must break above the July 1 and 2 highs at 0.6590, targeting the Fibonacci extension levels at 0.6610 and 0.6640 [6] Upcoming Economic Data - Eurozone May retail sales data is scheduled for release at 17:00 [7] - The US global supply chain pressure index for June will be released at 22:00 [7]

1. 荷兰国际：通胀持续放缓为澳洲联储降息再开窗口。 2. 分析师：强劲的澳大利亚就业数据给澳洲联储鸽派敲响警钟。 日元： 1. 惠誉：若不大幅削减汽车关税，日美将难以达成贸易协议。 2. 穆迪：仍认为日本央行将继续加息，但疲弱的薪资数据令其处境艰难。 澳元： 金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（7月7日） 其它： 1. 印度尼西亚6月底外汇储备升至1526亿美元。 2. 泰国6月消费者价格指数下降幅度超出预期。 3. 普京呼吁扩大本币结算，提议创建新的金砖国家投资平台。 4. 经济学家：新西兰联储本周将"鸽派暂停"，为评估经济留出缓冲空间。 ...

Investment News - The Hong Kong government reported that the stock market rose by 18% last year, with a strong momentum expected to continue into 2025, as the number of IPO applications in Hong Kong is rapidly increasing, with fundraising exceeding 107 billion HKD in the first half of the year [4] - In the first half of 2025, the Beijing Stock Exchange received 115 IPO applications, maintaining a steady acceptance pace, with 97 applications in June alone, accounting for over 80% of the total [4] - Since the announcement of the "merger and acquisition guidelines" on September 24, 2024, there have been 23 cases of A-share companies announcing mergers and acquisitions aimed at IPOs, with 31 focusing on core business integration and 9 on cross-industry mergers [4] Company Movements - Meituan and Taobao have launched aggressive promotions, distributing numerous food delivery coupons, including significant discounts, while JD.com also issued millions of exclusive coupons [6] - NIO's founder and CEO Li Bin announced that the starting price for the Lido L90 will be below 300,000 RMB, with the vehicle set to be available for pre-sale starting July 10 [6] - Roma Technology and Anker Innovations have announced recalls of over 1.2 million power bank products due to safety hazards from battery contamination [6]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the escalating trade tensions between the US and its allies, particularly India, in response to Trump's proposed tariff increases from 50% to 70% [2][4] - India has reacted strongly against the US tariffs, refusing to accept the proposed 70% tariff and retaliating by filing a complaint with the WTO while also imposing tariffs on US agricultural products [4][6] - The situation has led to a significant shift in India's foreign policy, as it seeks to strengthen ties with BRICS nations and explore alternative trade agreements, indicating a strategic pivot away from reliance on the US [8][10] Group 2 - Japan and South Korea are also feeling the pressure, with Japan advocating for negotiations instead of tariffs, while South Korea is caught between maintaining US relations and appeasing China [10][11] - Southeast Asian countries are reacting to the shifting trade dynamics, with Thailand imposing tariffs on Vietnamese goods, and German companies expanding production in India to mitigate supply chain risks [11][12] - The overall trade landscape in Asia is becoming increasingly volatile, with countries adjusting their strategies in response to US tariff threats and the evolving geopolitical climate [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Russian President Putin called for the expansion of local currency settlements and proposed the creation of a new investment platform for BRICS countries during the 17th BRICS summit [1] Group 1: Currency and Settlement Initiatives - Putin proposed the establishment of an independent settlement and custody system within the BRICS framework [1] - He emphasized the goal of increasing the share of settlements in rubles and currencies of "friendly countries" to 90% by 2024 [1] Group 2: Investment and Economic Cooperation - The proposal includes increasing the scale of bilateral investments among BRICS member countries [1] - A new investment platform for BRICS countries was suggested to facilitate this increase [1] Group 3: Additional Proposals - Putin proposed the establishment of a carbon market partnership, an arbitration investment center, a fair competition platform, and a permanent tax secretariat within the BRICS framework [1]

巴西总统卢拉：金砖国家银行的项目中有31%采用了本币结算。 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the recent U.S. tariff increases are ineffective and that the trend of re-globalization is irreversible [1][3] - It discusses the anxiety in the U.S. regarding its declining global dominance, which has led to current tensions, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [3][4] - The article highlights that the U.S. has shifted from multilateralism to a more transactional approach, which reveals a lack of strategic coherence [3][4] Group 2 - It points out that the U.S. manufacturing sector's decline is not solely due to trade agreements but is a result of a deep transformation of American capital over the past 40 years [4][5] - The article notes that while the U.S. continues to produce high-end and advanced technology products, these sectors are capital-intensive and cannot replace the jobs lost in labor-intensive manufacturing [4][5] - It mentions that emerging economies are increasingly seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar for trade, particularly in the context of regional trade agreements [5][6] Group 3 - The article concludes that the U.S.-China trade dispute reflects a broader historical trend towards multipolarity and diversification of global reserve currencies [5][6] - It asserts that the world is not experiencing de-globalization but is instead advancing re-globalization under new conditions and rules [5][6]

Group 1 - Russia's financial reserves have significantly decreased from 10 trillion rubles to 6 trillion rubles in just two months, indicating a severe fiscal crisis [1] - The average daily expenditure of Russia in the ongoing conflict is over 400 million USD, approximately 30 billion RMB, highlighting the financial strain of military operations [3] - The energy export sector, previously a major revenue source for Russia, is under pressure due to Western sanctions, with the IMF predicting a mere 0.3% GDP growth for Russia this year, suggesting economic stagnation [5][7] Group 2 - Russia is actively seeking to enhance energy cooperation with China, with the Russian Energy Minister frequently visiting China to discuss potential projects [9] - The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline project is a focal point for Russia, aiming to transport natural gas to China, but the financial terms proposed by Russia may be seen as excessive by China [11][13] - China is shifting from emotional cooperation to interest-based cooperation, emphasizing the need for mutually beneficial agreements rather than one-sided concessions [15][25] Group 3 - Russian energy companies are facing a significant decline in net profits, dropping from 1.445 trillion rubles to 789.5 billion rubles year-on-year, reflecting a severe downturn in the energy sector [20] - High domestic interest rates and a rapidly increasing debt burden are exacerbating Russia's financial challenges, with 20% benchmark interest rates and a 14% annual debt growth rate [21] - The reliance on Chinese markets for energy exports is seen as a potential lifeline for Russia, but sustainable cooperation must be based on shared interests and risk-sharing [23][27]

Core Points - The U.S. is pressuring India to distance itself from BRICS in exchange for a trade agreement, highlighting a shift in diplomatic tactics [1][3] - The U.S. sees India as a crucial player in its Indo-Pacific strategy, aiming to weaken China's influence by leveraging India's position [3][5] - India's reliance on Chinese manufacturing is significant, with a projected 37% increase in imports of Chinese machinery and electrical products in 2024 [5] - The U.S. demands include opening India's agricultural market to American soybeans and threatening military supply chains, particularly for F-21 fighter jet parts [7] - India is strategically delaying its response to U.S. demands while strengthening ties with Russia and exploring alternative currency agreements with the Middle East [9] - China's response to the situation has been measured, with support for India through infrastructure loans, contrasting with U.S. tactics [10] - Internal divisions in India are evident, with public sentiment largely against U.S. economic pressure and protests against American agricultural imports [12] - Global reactions to U.S. pressure include support for BRICS from other nations, indicating a broader resistance to U.S. hegemony [14] Summary by Sections U.S.-India Relations - The U.S. Commerce Secretary's visit to India was marked by a stark warning to sever ties with BRICS for a trade deal [1] - The U.S. initially expected compliance from 75 countries regarding tariffs but faced resistance, particularly from India [3] Economic Implications - The U.S. is pushing for India to open its agricultural market, which could significantly impact local farmers [7] - India's imports from China are expected to rise sharply, indicating a complex economic interdependence [5] Strategic Maneuvering - India is employing a strategy of delay while seeking to strengthen its energy ties with Russia and explore alternative economic frameworks [9] - China's support for India through financial means contrasts with U.S. pressure tactics, showcasing a different diplomatic approach [10] Domestic Sentiment - There is significant public backlash in India against U.S. economic policies, with protests emerging against American agricultural imports [12] - The internal political landscape in India is divided, with strong opposition to U.S. influence and calls for maintaining BRICS membership [12] Global Context - Other BRICS nations are rallying against U.S. pressure, indicating a potential shift in global power dynamics [14]

先说个扎心的事实：美国现在每天光利息就得烧掉27亿美元，这还不算本金。你没听错，光是利息钱就能压垮华盛顿那帮人。去年日本还攥着1.1万亿美元 美债，结果上个月直接甩卖了500亿，搞得美债利率一晚上窜高20个点。连日本都开始跑路了，你觉得中国会傻到去接盘？这不是"农夫与蛇"的故事，是"东 郭先生救狼"的翻版。 美债曾经是全球金融市场的"定海神针"，但现在呢？越来越多国家开始用自己的货币结算，东盟搞了本币结算圈，巴西卖大豆直接收人民币，俄罗斯更是把 存在美国的黄金全拉回国。美元的国际地位正在一步步被蚕食，这不是危言耸听，而是肉眼可见的趋势。 美债这事儿，最近又成了全球金融圈的头号瓜。6月份到期的6.5万亿美元美债，像一颗定时炸弹，正悬在华盛顿的头顶。而大家最关心的问题是：中国会不 会接盘？我的答案很简单——别开玩笑了，接盘就是给自己挖坑！ 还有人提到比特币，说美国可能用比特币来化债。这更是个笑话。比特币是什么？它是个虚拟品，网络崩溃了它就归零。美国拿虚拟货币换中国的真金白 银，这不是明抢是什么？拿中国人当傻子吗？ 美国的债务问题已经不是靠"化债"能解决的了，它的问题是系统性的。贪腐严重、贫富差距拉大、财政赤字失控 ...