【导读】多家车企冲上微博科技热搜，超额完成年度目标成关键词 2026年1月1日，微博科技热搜一度被车企霸榜，主要与车企交付量（销量）有关。 车企月度竞争仍是"你追我赶"的态势。2025年12月，蔚来、小米等车企的交付量（销量）均创新高，而 在此前多个月份是零跑等车企遥遥领先。 多家车企掌门人在受访时表示，汽车行业就像是一场没有尽头的马拉松，一时的领先很正常，困难的是 持续能赢，或者退一步后要一直能在"牌桌"上。 | 车企 | 2025年全年(辆) | 同比 | 2024年全年(辆) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 比亚迪 | 460. 24万 | 7.73% | 427.21万 | | 吉利汽车 | 302. 46万 | 38. 96% | 217.66万 | | 奇瑞集团 | 280.64万 | 7. 80% | 260. 39万 | | 长城汽车 | 132.37万 | 7. 33% | 123.33万 | | 零胞 | 59.66万 | 103. 13% | 29.37万 | | 鸿蒙智行 | 58.91万 | 32. 38% | 44. 50万 | | 小鵬 | 42.94 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 汽车延续两新补贴，利好中高端车 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 31 日│中国内地 动态点评 SAC No. S0570525020001 wanglixian@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 张高栋* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124120007 zhanggaodong@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 行业走势图 (5) 5 14 24 33 Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 (%) 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | (当地币种) | 投资评级 | | 小鹏汽车-W | 9868 HK | 122.71 | 买入 | | 吉利汽车 | 175 HK | 27.07 | 买入 | | 比亚迪 | 002594 CH | 136.93 | 买入 | | 理想汽车-W | 2015 HK | 84.80 | 买入 | 汽车 增持 (维持) | 12 月 30 日，国家发展改革委 ...

2025年初，武汉港汉南港区国家一类口岸获批临时对外开放，通过江海联运，"车谷 造"汽车可直接在本地办理海关手续，单车出口成本降低超千元。 12月30日，汉南区第十届人民代表大会第五次会议开幕。记者从会上获悉，2025 年，"车谷造"汽车出海20万辆，增长70%。 武汉经开区作为"武襄十随"汽车产业集群核心，已集聚10家整车企业、14座整车工厂、 1200余家零部件厂商。近年来，全区持续构建"自贸+综保+口岸+通道"全链条出海服务体 系，对外开放水平全面提升。 3月，武汉"经开港—太仓港"直达航线正式启航，物流时效从过去的5-6天缩短至3天， 成本降低20%—30%，成为汽车出海"水陆联动"的关键；7月，首条直达日韩的近洋航线从 经开港启航，为车谷企业对接东亚市场开辟了新通道。 当前，武汉经开区正加速从"中国车谷"迈向"世界车谷"。记者从会上获悉，2026年，武 汉经开区将加快建设自贸区联动创新发展区，启动港产城一体化发展规划建设,打造长江中 游汽车（出口）集散中心，持续拓展近洋航线，力争全年汽车出海达到25万辆。 编辑：熊展平 今年以来，"车谷号"滚装船专线实现稳定运营，依托长江黄金水道将汽车高效运抵沿海 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is at a critical juncture in its globalization efforts, with a strong market presence but facing potential short-term growth slowdowns due to various constraints. The focus on deep localization and industry chain collaboration is essential for maintaining competitive advantages in international markets. Group 1: Globalization and Market Strategy - The Chinese automotive industry has successfully entered the global mainstream, achieving market share comparable to American and Korean manufacturers, with a promising outlook for future growth [1] - By 2030, it is projected that China's overseas sales share could reach 15% to 20%, although growth may slow in the next two years due to factors like overseas inventory and localization challenges [1] - Key criteria for selecting target markets include large market size and a relatively mature industry chain, or a faster transition towards electrification [5][10] Group 2: Localization and Industry Collaboration - "Industry chain collaboration" and "deep localization" are identified as critical factors for Chinese automotive companies to maintain their leading position in the global market [2] - Deep localization is emphasized as a key focus for the next phase of automotive globalization, requiring companies to adapt their products and strategies to local market needs [2][17] - Companies must integrate their core value propositions with local insights to transition from a purely global layout to a symbiotic local presence [17] Group 3: ESG and Core Competitiveness - ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors are not only entry barriers for international markets but also represent core competitive advantages for companies [6][13] - Quality and trust are highlighted as essential components of ESG, which are crucial for Chinese automotive companies to succeed globally [13][16] - The traditional supply chain structures are inadequate for meeting the demands of smart electric vehicles, presenting an opportunity for restructuring the supply chain [7][13] Group 4: Market Entry and Development Strategies - Companies are encouraged to develop differentiated market expansion strategies tailored to various regions, leveraging their technological and cost advantages from the domestic market [17] - Successful global companies must ensure their values are recognized globally, and their innovative technologies and products meet local demands [17][20] - Establishing distribution and service channels is critical for overseas development, and finding local partners can facilitate market entry [23]

自2020年后，我国汽车出口一路狂飙，短期内增长迅猛，在今后的一段时期间，这种增长趋势还将持续下去。 汽车出口迅猛增长的同时，对汽车出海人才的需求也在急速增长。脉脉高聘人才智库的数据显示，出海新发岗位量增⻓16.99%。汽车出海拉 动我国经济增长，也提供了就业的新方向。 汽车出口量快速增长 资料来源：中汽协数据 汽车出口数据表明，我国汽车产业在电动化、智能化技术上的积累逐步转化为产品优势，高安全性电池系统、智能交互生态与车联网技术迭 代升级，构筑起差异化竞争优势。 欧洲、东南亚、拉美成为中国汽车出口的三大核心增长极。尽管欧盟在2024年提高了对中国纯电动车型的关税，但中国车企通过转向混合动 力车型等策略，绕过了部分贸易壁垒，实现了出口量的逆势增长。 中国汽车在东南亚市场同样表现出色，尤其在印尼、马来西亚、泰国和菲律宾等主要市场。新能源汽车成为出口亮点，新能源汽车使用成本 低成为吸引消费者的主要因素。 2025年1至8月，中国出口中南美洲的汽车销量同比增长35.1%。拉美市场成为中国新能源汽车"加速出海"的重要目的地。然而，该地区关税 政策复杂多变，对中国车企构成一定挑战。 汽车出海人才缺口较大 根据罗兰贝格与 ...

Summary of Automotive Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The automotive industry is experiencing a downward trend, with total data accelerating decline since mid-October 2025. Retail sales dropped by 9% in October and over 10% in November, influenced by purchase tax policies and replacement subsidy expectations. The overall forecast for 2026 is neutral to pessimistic, with a potential decline of 2-7% in total volume [1][4][5]. Key Insights and Arguments - **New Energy Vehicles (NEVs)**: The penetration rate of NEVs is expected to increase from 52%-53% in 2025 to 56% in 2026. Exports are projected to grow by 40% to 400,000 units, presenting structural opportunities in the market [1][6]. - **Heavy-Duty Trucks**: Benefiting from the National IV scrappage policy, the demand for heavy-duty trucks is expected to reach 700,000 to 800,000 units in 2026, with significant upward elasticity [1][7]. - **Passenger Vehicles**: The market is anticipated to rebound after hitting a bottom, with long-term investment opportunities emerging from new dimensions such as overseas expansion, high-end products, and smart driving technologies [2][8]. - **High-End Passenger Vehicles**: The demand for models priced above 600,000 RMB is stable, with domestic brands expected to increase market share. Companies like JAC and BYD are projected to achieve significant sales and profit targets [3][11]. Market Segments - **Motorcycle and Bus Markets**: These segments are expected to see high export growth rates, with companies like Yutong and Longxing valued at around 12 times earnings, showing growth rates of 15%-20% [1][8]. - **Automotive Components**: Focus on domestic substitution and technological advancements in areas such as laser radar brackets and control systems. Magnesium alloy products are expected to grow at 40%-50% over the next three years due to cost advantages [3][12]. Policy Impacts - The increase in purchase tax by approximately 5,000 RMB and the expansion of the vehicle replacement policy signal a shift in consumer behavior. The overall demand has been front-loaded, leading to a neutral forecast for 2026 with potential declines of 2-3% [5]. Investment Opportunities - **Export and High-End Markets**: Companies like BYD and Geely are expected to significantly increase their export volumes, with BYD targeting 1.5 million units and Geely aiming for 750,000 to 800,000 units in 2026. The profit share from exports is projected to rise substantially [1][8]. - **Robotics and AI**: The robotics industry is poised for growth, with companies like Tesla and domestic firms planning to produce 50,000 to 100,000 units. The focus on liquid cooling and smart driving technologies presents new investment avenues [3][13][15]. - **Specific Companies to Watch**: Recommendations include Geely, JAC, and companies in the robotics sector such as Hengli and Top Group, which are expected to show strong growth potential [14][17]. Additional Considerations - The European NEV market is projected to increase its penetration rate from 23% to 35%-40% over the next 3-5 years, with a compound annual growth rate of 15%-20%, benefiting companies like Minth and Qiaford [10]. - The heavy-duty truck market is expected to see a rebound in non-Russian regions, with exports projected to exceed 360,000 units in 2026 [10]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the automotive industry conference call, highlighting the current trends, market dynamics, and potential investment opportunities within the sector.

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the strategic focus on the automotive industry in various regions' 14th Five-Year Plans, highlighting the transition from a major automotive nation to a strong automotive power during this critical period [1][3][12] Group 1: Industry Development Focus - Multiple regions are prioritizing the development of smart connected new energy vehicles (NEVs) as a key component of their economic strategies, reflecting confidence in the industry's growth [2][3] - The Chongqing 14th Five-Year Plan aims to establish a globally influential smart connected NEV hub, enhancing infrastructure such as ultra-fast charging and battery swapping stations [2] - The plans from provinces like Guangdong and Shandong emphasize upgrading the automotive industry towards high-tech and high-value sectors, indicating a shift in focus towards advanced manufacturing [3][11] Group 2: Consumer Demand and Market Dynamics - The article discusses the importance of boosting automotive consumption as a core element of regional plans, with measures to eliminate unreasonable restrictions on automotive purchases [5][6] - Predictions suggest that China's annual automotive sales could exceed 40 million units during the 14th Five-Year period, with significant growth expected in midwestern and rural markets [7][16] - The removal of restrictions on automotive consumption is highlighted as a critical step to stimulate market activity and enhance consumer freedom [7][8] Group 3: Cross-Industry Integration - The automotive industry is increasingly seen as a nexus for multi-dimensional integration with sectors like renewable energy and transportation, driving technological convergence [4][13] - The establishment of industry clusters centered around smart connected NEVs is viewed as essential for enhancing regional competitiveness and fostering innovation [10][12] Group 4: International Expansion - The article outlines plans for supporting the international expansion of Chinese automotive companies, emphasizing the need for strategic overseas market entry [14][15] - Regions are encouraged to facilitate cross-border operations for NEV companies, aiming to enhance their global market presence and competitiveness [14][16] - Challenges such as trade barriers and compliance risks are acknowledged, with recommendations for collaborative approaches to mitigate these issues [16][17]

打造智能网联新能源汽车高地、构建以汽车为核心的跨领域产业集群、清理汽车消费不合理限制性措施、为汽车"出海"保驾护航……截至目前，围绕 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出的主要目标和战略任务，大部分省市地区发布了各自的"十五五"规划，其中不少 省市地区将汽车产业作为"十五五"时期的发展重点。 "在'十五五'新的历史征程即将开启之际，多地'十五五'规划中对汽车产业予以重点部署，反映了地方对发展汽车产业的信心和决心。"中国汽车工程 学会名誉理事长、华汽汽车文化基金会理事长付于武在接受《中国汽车报》记者采访时表示，"十五五"时期是我国由汽车大国向汽车强国转变的关键时 期，只有各地齐心协力，才能为我国汽车产业转型跃迁增添更多动力。 推动智能网联新能源汽车产业升级 中国汽车工业协会发布的最新数据显示，2025年1~11月，我国新能源汽车销量1246.6万辆，同比增长23.2%。其中，新能源乘用车销量1171.5万辆， 同比增长21.3%。产业的持续快速增长，使各地对发展智能网联新能源汽车产业信心倍增。围绕智能网联新能源汽车产业转型升级、加快基础设施建设、 进行全链条部署，成为诸多省市地区规划 ...

11月，比亚迪在巴西、土耳其、意大利、西班牙、匈牙利、克罗地亚等国拿下了新能源汽车销量第一，在新加坡等国家获得全品牌销冠。1-11月累计表现同 样不俗，在巴西、土耳其、西班牙、意大利等国，比亚迪位列新能源汽车品牌销量榜首；在新加坡、中国香港等地区市场荣膺全品牌销量第一，备受消费者 认可。 2025年1-11月，比亚迪在英国、德国、意大利、西班牙、奥地利、爱尔兰、马来西亚、土耳其、新加坡、泰国、中国等11个汽车核心国家市场，销量已经全 面超越特斯拉。凭借多元化产品矩阵，比亚迪精准契合了全球不同市场消费者的差异化需求。同时，通过推进自建滚装船、本地化生产、构建完善的服务体 系等一系列协同举措，为其海外拓展提供了坚实支撑。在这些出海策略的有力推动下，比亚迪出海狂飙全球领跑。 截至目前，比亚迪新能源汽车出海足迹累计已遍布119个国家和地区。在刚刚过去的12月18日，比亚迪举行了第1500万辆新能源汽车下线仪式，成为首家达 成这一里程碑的车企，标志着中国汽车工业正式迈入全球引领新阶段。以比亚迪为代表的中国汽车品牌不再是跟随者，而是推动新秩序建立的引领者。在这 场关乎全球未来出行变革的历史画卷中，中国汽车品牌正落笔生辉。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **Chinese automotive industry**, particularly the overseas expansion of Chinese car manufacturers and their strategies for entering various international markets [1][2][3][5][7][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Profitability Disparity**: Chinese automakers show varied profitability in overseas markets, with an average gross margin of **20.7%** for passenger cars in 2024, compared to **15%** domestically. Companies like BYD, Changan, and Chery maintain high margins through premium and multi-brand strategies, while SAIC and Great Wall face profit declines due to policy impacts [1][13]. 2. **Regional Growth Drivers**: - **Southeast Asia**: Benefiting from ASEAN zero tariffs and subsidies, it is a major growth area. Local production is ramping up with factories established by BYD and Geely in Thailand and Vietnam [1][2][7]. - **Middle East**: High purchasing power and supportive policies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) drive demand for high-end SUVs from Chinese brands [1][2][7]. - **Russia**: The exit of Western brands and government subsidies create significant opportunities for companies like Chery and Great Wall, which are establishing local production [1][2][7]. - **Europe**: Expected to remain a high-margin market, especially for PHEV and BEV segments, with favorable regulatory changes [2][3][5]. 3. **Sales Targets**: - BYD aims for **1.5 to 1.6 million** overseas sales by 2026, focusing on Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, and Southeast Asia [4]. - Chery targets **1.5 to 1.8 million** sales, with a gradual exit from the Russian market [4]. - Great Wall anticipates **800,000** sales, emphasizing high-end and NEV strategies [5]. - Geely aims for **600,000** sales, focusing on Europe and Southeast Asia [5]. - SAIC plans for **1 million** sales, with new factories in Morocco [5]. 4. **Strategic Approaches**: - **Chery**: Implements an embedded localization strategy, adapting products to local regulations and competition [2][11]. - **BYD**: Focuses on vertical integration and local production to address charging infrastructure issues [4][12]. - **Geely**: Utilizes acquisitions to enter international markets while maintaining brand identities [9][11]. - **Great Wall**: Adopts a multi-brand strategy to cater to different regional markets [12]. 5. **Risks and Challenges**: - Regulatory barriers and the need for continuous investment in high-demand regions like Europe and the Middle East [6]. - Competition from Japanese brands in Southeast Asia and potential tariff adjustments [6][8]. - Low penetration rates in South America and the need for market cultivation [6][8]. Other Important Insights - **Chery's Competitive Edge**: Chery has over **3,000** channels and has maintained its position as the top Chinese brand exporter for **22 consecutive years**, with cumulative exports exceeding **5.7 million** vehicles [1][15]. - **Technological Leadership**: Chinese NEV products lead the market by **20%-30%** in hybrid, electric, and smart cockpit technologies compared to European and American counterparts [9]. - **Market Penetration Strategies**: Different companies adopt various strategies based on market conditions, such as Chery's balanced development approach and BYD's focus on high localization rates [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics of the Chinese automotive industry's overseas expansion and the strategies employed by various companies.