Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The market for each type of oil has its own supply - demand characteristics, which will affect their price trends [6][7][11][13]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - For soybean oil, the 2509 closing price was 7944, up 24. In different regions, spot prices varied, and basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 210, 200, and 170 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 30, and 10 [4]. - For palm oil, the 2509 closing price was 8638, down 40. Spot prices in different regions also differed, and basis in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 60, 150, and 200 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and - 20 [4]. - For rapeseed oil, the 2509 closing price was 9468, down 42. Spot prices and basis in different regions were reported, such as a basis of 130 in Zhangjiagang and 60 in Guangdong with no change [4]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - The 9 - 1 monthly spread of soybean oil was 22, up 18; for palm oil, it was 22, down 10; for rapeseed oil, it was 56, down 4 [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory (Week 27, 2025)**: - Soybean oil inventory was 102.0 (previous week: 95.5), palm oil was 53.8 (previous week: 53.7), and rapeseed oil was 71.9 (previous week data not shown in this part) [8]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market (Palm Oil)**: - In June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2030580 tons, up 2.41% month - on - month; production was 1692310 tons, down 4.48% month - on - month; exports were 1259354 tons, down 10.52% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB June report had a neutral - to - bearish impact. As of July 4, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 53.81 tons, up 0.07 tons (0.13%) from the previous week. The import profit inversion narrowed, and the market was expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The futures price rose slightly. The actual soybean crushing volume was 233.22 tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%. As of July 4, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 101.97 tons, up 6.45 tons (6.75%) from the previous week. The market was expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures price fell slightly. The coastal rapeseed crushing volume last week was 4.7 tons, with an operating rate of 12.53%. As of July 4, 2025, the coastal inventory was 71.9 tons, down 2.8 tons from the previous week. The import profit inversion narrowed, and the market was expected to have large - range fluctuations [11]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [13]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider widening the P9 - 1 and P1 - 5 spreads on pullbacks [14]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [15]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads over different time periods, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [18][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The weather in the US soybean producing areas remains favorable, with temperatures in July being temporarily lower and sufficient precipitation. Multiple institutions expect the US soybean production to continue rising, leading to significant supply pressure [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,678.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a环比 increase of 34 yuan or 0.39%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,920.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 26.00 yuan or 0.33%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 88.00 yuan or 0.92% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,730.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 110.00 yuan or 1.28%, with a spot basis of P09 + 52.00, a环比 increase of 76.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,100.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 180.00, a环比 increase of 36.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,640.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 90.00 yuan or 0.92%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 130.00, a环比 decrease of 2.00 yuan [1] Market News - BMI predicts that after a 1.6% year - on - year decline in the 2024/25 season, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to partially recover in the 2025/26 season, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons. However, domestic consumption in Malaysia in the 2025/26 season is expected to drop 2% from 39 million tons in the 2024/25 season to 38 million tons. StoneX analysts believe that the production outlook for US soybeans continues to improve due to good weather. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed, Argentine soybean oil, etc., have different price adjustments. Import soybean premium quotes also show some changes [2] Group 4: Charts Information - The report includes 30 charts related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the US raising tariffs on goods from 14 countries may harm US crop export demand, and good weather in US soybean - growing areas causes CBOT soybeans to run under pressure. The expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June, along with the bullish expectation of the MPOB report and the depreciation of the Malaysian ringgit, support the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil futures [5]. - Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, and the off - season demand will lead to further inventory accumulation. With weakened import cost support, soybean oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The arrival speed of imported palm oil has accelerated, and domestic prices follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, the decline in domestic inventory and uncertainties in subsequent imports still support prices, and rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic and Industry News - As of July 6, the US soybean emergence rate was 96%, higher than the previous week's 94% but lower than the historical average of 98%. The soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and in line with analysts' expectations [2]. - From June 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.69%, compared with a 3.07% month - on - month increase in May [2]. - Due to the US plan to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesian goods, Indonesian palm oil exports to the US may decline significantly. If the tariff policy is implemented, Indonesian palm oil exports to the US may decrease by 15% - 20% [2]. - Analysts predict that the US 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.334 billion bushels, with a forecast range of 4.33 - 4.34 billion bushels, lower than the USDA's June estimate of 4.34 billion bushels [2]. 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - International: The US tariff increase may harm US crop exports, and good weather in US soybean - growing areas pressures CBOT soybeans. The expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June and other factors support the rise of Malaysian palm oil futures [5]. - Domestic: Soybean oil is expected to be weakly volatile, palm oil prices follow the external market, and rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low, and demand is weak. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have a macro - level impact on the market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 162 tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 149 tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 183 tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8194, with a basis of 248, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 88 tons, an increase of 2 tons from the previous 86 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7700 - 8100 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8828, with a basis of 184, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 38 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from the previous value of 39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1 ton and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8450 - 8850 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9745, with a basis of 147, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 65 tons, an increase of 2 tons from the previous value of 63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 2025/7/7 | | --- | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7894 | (50) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8114 | | | 8094 | | 8044 | 220 | | 0 | 200 | 0 | 150 | -10 | | 棕榈油 | 8466 | (6) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8536 | | | | 8626 | 8706 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 7 日 棕榈油：基本面矛盾不明显，国际油价影响大 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,472 | -0.07% | 8,482 | 0.12% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,944 | -0.63% | 7,916 | -0.35% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,607 | -0.12% | 9,602 | -0.05% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,062 | -0.71% | | | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 54.54 | -0.96% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 494,606 | 13017 | 451,187 | -12,777 | | | 豆 ...

油脂：美国公共假期休市 油脂震荡调整 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、乌克兰议会正在审议一项税法修正案，拟对大豆和油菜籽恢复征收 10%的出口关税。 该法案已通过 6 月 26 日的初步讨论，将于 7 月 2 日提交税务政策委员会审议，预计 7 月 15 日进行议会全体表决。 2、欧盟数据显示，2024/25 年度迄今，欧盟大豆进口量增长 8%，从乌克兰进口的数量 激增近 60%。2024/25 年度（从 7 月至次年 6 月）巴西是欧盟头号大豆供应国，供应量为 611 万吨，较上年的 597 万吨增长 2.4%（上周减少 1.5%），但是所占份额从 45.8%降至 42.8%。 3、美国农业部出口销售报告显示，截至 6 月 26 日当周，美国对中国（仅指大陆）的 2024/25 年度大豆净销售量为 0 吨，这也是连续第 9 周销售量为零（或负值）。 4、马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）将于 7 月 10 日（下周四）公布月度数据。一项调查显示， 马来西亚 6 月底的棕榈油库存可能出现四个月以来首次下降，因为产量可能意外下降，而出 口需求依然强劲。分析师们预计 6 月底马来西亚棕榈油库存将降至 199 万吨，较 5 月份 ...

市场分析 油脂日报 | 2025-07-03 印度棕榈油进口增加，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 风险 政策变化 中性 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8440.00元/吨，环比变化+104元，幅度+1.25%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8018.00 元/吨，环比变化+46.00元，幅度+0.58%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9619.00元/吨，环比变化+142.00元，幅度+1.50%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8440.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.60%，现货基差P09+0.00，环比变化 -54.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8160.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.25%，现货基差Y09+142.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9770.00元/吨，环比变化+110.00元，幅度+1.14%，现货基差 OI09+151.00，环比变化-32.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：欧盟委员会（European Commission）数据显示，2024年7月1日至2025年6月29日，欧盟2024/25 年度棕榈油进口量为279万吨，而去年同期为349 ...

油脂日报 2025 年 7 月 2 日 油脂日报 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8018 | 46 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8238 | | | | 8248 | 8178 | | 230 | 0 | 220 | -10 | 160 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8440 | 104 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8520 | | | | 8670 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-07-02 USDA面积报告变化较小，油脂延续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8336.00元/吨，环比变化+6元，幅度+0.07%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7972.00 元/吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.15%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9477.00元/吨，环比变化+62.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8390.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.24%，现货基差P09+54.00，环比变化 -26.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8140.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+168.00， 环比变化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9660.00元/吨，环比变化+90.00元，幅度+0.94%，现货基差 OI09+183.00，环比变化+28.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年6月1-30日马来西亚棕榈油单产环 比上月同期减少0.23%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.08%，产量环比上月同期减少0.65%。 据Wi ...