研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | 2025/12/17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | 各品种地区现货价 | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7822 | (50) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8332 | | | | 8382 | 8242 | | 560 | 10 | 510 | 0 | 420 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8342 | (68) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8312 | | | | 8432 | 8452 | | -30 | -1 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-16 大豆利空不断，油脂承压震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8492.00元/吨，环比变化-60元，幅度-0.70%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7940.00 元/吨，环比变化-54.00元，幅度-0.68%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9196.00元/吨，环比变化-151.00元，幅度-1.62%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8530.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.23%，现货基差P05+38.00，环比变化 +40.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8350.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.71%，现货基差Y05+410.00， 环比变化-6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9680.00元/吨，环比变化-180.00元，幅度-1.83%，现货基差 OI05+484.00，环比变化-29.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部（USDA）公布数据，民间出口商报告对中国出口销售13.6万吨大豆，于2025/2026 年度交货。美国大豆市场年度始于9月1日。据外媒报道，巴西农业咨询机构AgRural表示，截至上周四，巴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom. Currently, the valuation is not low enough and there is no clear driving force. It is recommended to operate with a light position. The price may break upward if there is a smooth production reduction in the first quarter, and new imagination space for the new year will be created when the origin starts to destock and the production in the first and second quarters is lower than expected [2]. - Soybean oil and its spreads are temporarily range - bound. They are waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector and the thematic resonance in the first quarter. The short - term pressure on US soybeans remains, and the driving force provided by the domestic spot market is limited at present [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: After the release of the MPOB report, the price rebounded after the negative factors were exhausted. However, the trading of the high - yield margin was not fully digested, and the high inventory suppressed the rebound height. The palm oil 01 contract fell 0.65% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: The sales progress of US soybeans was slow. Without weather speculation in South America, the upward driving force was limited. It mainly followed the oil and fat sector in a range - bound manner without upward momentum. The soybean oil 01 contract fell 1.06% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic Palm oil - High production and low demand pushed Malaysia's December palm oil inventory to 2.8 million tons, approaching the 2018 high. The rebound after the report was weak, and the market was reluctant to bet on the production inflection point. More monthly production data are needed to verify the reasons for the high - yield. If the production in December decreases to around 1.7 million tons, the bottom of palm oil can be short - term confirmed [2]. - In Indonesia, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia and the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra have declined, and the refining profit has rebounded rapidly. Indonesia still has room for marginal price cuts, and Malaysia's production will be the key factor for price support. The September data released by GAPKI is of little trading value due to possible distortion, but the export data from October to November indicates that the average monthly production in these two months is at least 4.8 million tons, and the year - end inventory can be maintained above 3 million tons, with a potential increase of about 1 million tons in 2026 [2]. - In the consumer areas, India's CPO import profit is still good, which stimulates India's purchasing, showing certain marginal demand. However, China's import profit inversion has widened, and the pressure release at the origin is very slow. Overall, palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom, and it will mainly operate in a range without breakthrough momentum under fundamental trading [2]. Soybean oil - The inventory of US soybeans is slightly loose under the condition of good yield per unit. The new - crop CBOT soybean price needs a further reduction in yield per unit or China's unexpected over - purchase to rise. The uneven rainfall in central and western Brazil since October may limit the high - yield potential in some areas, but it is not enough to weaken the production prospect of the new season in South America. Argentina also has no speculative factors for the time being. The short - term pressure on US soybeans remains, and China's purchasing rhythm and South American weather will determine the degree of correction [4]. - In the domestic market, there is almost no gap in soybean arrivals until January, but the estimated arrivals from February to March are lower than the same period last year. The export demand enables domestic soybean oil to maintain the monthly destocking process until March or April next year, but the driving force provided by the domestic spot market is also very limited at present. Soybean oil and its spreads are temporarily range - bound, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector and the thematic resonance in the first quarter [4]. 3.3盘面基本行情数据 (Basic Market Data of Futures) - **Price and Volume Data**: The palm oil main - continuous contract opened at 8,780 yuan/ton, closed at 8,552 yuan/ton, down 1.99%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract opened at 8,282 yuan/ton, closed at 7,994 yuan/ton, down 3.27%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract opened at 9,625 yuan/ton, closed at 9,347 yuan/ton, down 3.10%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Spread Data**: The rapeseed - soybean 01 spread was 1,368 yuan/ton, up 1.18%; the soybean - palm 01 spread was - 368 yuan/ton, up 26.98%; the spreads of 1 - 5 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all increased to different extents [6]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 498 to 950; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 3,195 to 25,964; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 316 to 3,476 [6]. 3.4油脂基本面核心数据 (Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats) - **Palm Oil Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production reduction in the fourth quarter is slow, and the inventory at the end of the year is still high. Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a neutral and slightly loose level. The export of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 10 was 390,400 tons, a 15% decrease compared with the same period last month. The POGO spread rebounded [8][12]. - **Demand - related Data**: India's palm oil import profit has improved rapidly, and the CNF spread between soybean oil and palm oil in India has strengthened. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil and four major oils and fats in 2025 have decreased by 400,000 tons and 600,000 tons respectively [13][14]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of palm oil (South China) for the 01 contract is - 30, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) has increased [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - Policy uncertainty has increased, leading to wide - range fluctuations in the oil and fat market. Although palm oil has entered the seasonal production - reduction cycle, the November production data reached a record high. Coupled with the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, the overall supply of oils and fats remains loose, resulting in an oscillatory adjustment of oil and fat prices [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Prices - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,642.00 yuan/ton, a change of +100 yuan or +1.17% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,036.00 yuan/ton, a change of +36.00 yuan or +0.45%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,599.00 yuan/ton, a change of +156.00 yuan or +1.65% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,670.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%, with a spot basis of P05 + 28.00, a change of -110.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,420.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.12%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 384.00, a change of -26.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850.00 yuan/ton, a change of +160.00 yuan or +1.65%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 251.00, a change of +4.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) C&F price was 515 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) C&F price was 523 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton. Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) C&F price was 1,171 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton; Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) C&F price was 1,118 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton. Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was 1,090 dollars/ton, unchanged; Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,070 dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (January shipment) was 490 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (January shipment) was 483 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (January shipment) was 482 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton. Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (January shipment) was 243 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel; US West Coast (January shipment) was 225 cents/bushel, down 8 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (January shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, down 10 cents/bushel [2] Production Data - According to SPPOMA data, from December 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 7.24% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.07%, and the production increased by 6.87%. According to the December forecast data released by CONAB, it is expected that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.1236 million tons, an increase of 5.6431 million tons or 3.3% year - on - year; the sown area will reach 48.9356 million hectares, an increase of 1.5895 million hectares or 3.4% year - on - year; the yield per unit will be 3.62 tons/hectare, a decrease of 2.32 kilograms/hectare or 0.1% year - on - year [2]

MPOB报告发布，棕榈油累库承压 油脂观点 市场分析 油脂日报 | 2025-12-11 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8542.00元/吨，环比变化-106元，幅度-1.23%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8000.00 元/吨，环比变化+16.00元，幅度+0.20%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9443.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.53%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8680.00元/吨，环比变化+100.00元，幅度+1.17%，现货基差P05+138.00，环比 变化+206.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8410.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.72%，现货基差 Y05+410.00，环比变化+44.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9690.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%，现 货基差OI05+247.00，环比变化+0.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：加拿大菜籽(1月船期)C&F价格516美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调4美元/吨；加拿大菜籽(3月 船期)C&F价格525美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调4美元/吨。阿根廷豆油(1月船期)C&F价 ...

究 棕榈油：利空出尽，短期反弹 2025 年 12 月 11 日 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,542 | -1.23% | 8,662 | 1.40% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,222 | 0.39% | 8,026 | -2.38% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,443 | 0.53% | 9,554 | 1.18% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,161 | -1.05% | 4,094 | 0.76% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 51.61 | 0.16% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 401,671 | 97760 | 165,371 | -30,173 | | | 豆油主力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oilseed futures market experienced a significant increase, with canola oil rising over 2% and palm oil increasing by 1.2% on December 10 [1] Group 1 - Canola oil futures saw a rise of more than 2% [1] - Palm oil futures increased by 1.2% [1]

油脂日报 | 2025-12-10 USDA报告发布，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8648.00元/吨，环比变化-58元，幅度-0.67%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7984.00 元/吨，环比变化-246.00元，幅度-2.99%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9393.00元/吨，环比变化-109.00元，幅度-1.15%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8580.00元/吨，环比变化-90.00元，幅度-1.04%，现货基差P05-68.00，环比变化 -32.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8350.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元/吨，幅度-0.60%，现货基差Y05+366.00， 环比变化+196.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9640.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.13%，现货基差 OI05+247.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，尽管下行风险有限且估值不高，但由于缺乏强劲的上行催化剂，研究机构Kenanga Research对种植业板块维持"中性"看法。该研究机构在一份报告中指出，今年的食用油供应紧张状况很可 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations remain tense, putting pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the month-end inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Current shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,394, and the basis is 128, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,768, and the basis is 2, indicating a slight spot premium. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 9,000. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above, with subsequent supply increase due to entering the production increase season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,975, and the basis is 357, indicating a significant spot premium. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. [5] - **Bearish**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5] Supply and Demand Indicators (Graphs) - Supply indicators include import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil - mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory,菜籽 inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23] - Demand indicators include soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption [13][15]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 4, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 yuan, supported by the cost of imported soybeans but with limited upside due to high inventory [8]. - For rapeseed oil, there is no new policy change. The far - month basis is weak, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread should be held. Since Australian rapeseed will arrive in December with a relatively small overall import volume, a long position can be taken on a single contract [8]. - Palm oil has many influencing factors. Bad weather in Malaysia and Indonesia, along with lower - than - expected production growth in November and possible tax cuts in Indonesia in December, may support the market in the short term. However, inventory in the producing areas is likely to continue to accumulate in November, so it should be regarded as range - bound with a resistance level around 9,000 yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil: In December, it is OI2601 + 280; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 260. East China's first - grade rapeseed oil: From December to January, it is OI2601 + 360. - East China's first - grade soybean oil basis price: Spot is Y2501 + 260; from December to January, it is Y2601 + 270; from January to March, it is 05 + 430; from March to May, it is 05 + 350; from April to May, it is 05 + 310; from May to July, it is 05 + 230; from February to May, it is 05 + 370. - Palm oil quotes from Dongguan traders are stable with a downward trend. For example, Guangzhou Yihai's 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 80; Dongguan COFCO's 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 70; 24 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 - 30; Guangdong's national standard 24 - degree palm oil is 01 + 10; 52 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 - 200; 33 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 + 20 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread for rapeseed oil and consider long positions for single contracts, and expect range - bound trading for soybean oil and palm oil [8]. 3.2 Industry News - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 779,392 tons, a 39.2% decrease from October. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, an 89,000 - ton decrease from the previous month [9]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease from October. Exports to China were 129,000 tons, a 6,000 - ton decrease from October [9]. - According to AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in November 2025 were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.9% decrease from October [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, and some spread data and exchange rate data [13][14][21]