Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold continues to fluctuate while silver shows relative strength. The US retail sales monthly rate increased by 0.6%, far exceeding the expected 0.1%. There were rumors that Trump considered firing Powell, which he later denied, but the Trump administration tried to influence market expectations through potential new Fed chair candidates. The US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year in June, the largest increase this year, cooling short - term rate - cut expectations. Trump postponed the tariff deadline for major trading countries, but there is a risk of the final tariff threat being partially realized. With good economic data recently, the expectation of the Fed's early rate cut has cooled, and the US dollar has stabilized and rebounded. Although the impact of the tariff policy shown by US data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings, providing long - term support for gold, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is boosted by industrial products and shows relative strength. Recently, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of Trump's threats being realized, and gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong oscillatory performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Precious Metals Futures**: For gold futures, the current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 774.60 and 779.14 respectively, with price increases of 0.64 and 0.76, and price increase rates of 0.08% and 0.10%. For silver futures, the current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9246.00 and 9292.00 respectively, with price increases of 106.00 and price increase rates of 1.16% and 1.15%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract are also provided [2]. - **Related Indices and Assets**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.6419, 6297.36, 4.47, 69.65, and 7.1847 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.36%, 0.54%, 0.22%, 0.01%, and 0.06% [2]. Spot Market - **Precious Metals Spot**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London gold, and London silver are given, along with their price changes and price change rates. The price of Shanghai Gold T + D decreased by 1.28 with a decline rate of - 0.17%, London gold decreased by 1.24 with a decline rate of - 0.16%, and London silver increased by 0.28 with an increase rate of 0.75% [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of spreads such as沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai gold/London gold, and Shanghai silver/London silver are provided, as well as their previous values [2]. Inventory - The current inventories of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, etc. are given. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory remains unchanged at 28,872 kilograms, the silver inventory increased by 4,296.00 kilograms to 1,217,085 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 346,352.72 ounces to 37,143,884 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 493,426 ounces to 496,688,541 ounces [2]. Derivatives - The current positions of spdr gold ETF, SLV silver ETF, and CFTC speculators' net positions in gold and silver are provided. The spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF positions both increased by 1.00 ton to 44,315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net position in silver increased by 481 to 33,486, and the net position in gold decreased by 1,451 to 32,895 [2]. Macroeconomic News - The US Treasury Secretary Bentsen privately advised Trump not to fire Fed Chairman Powell, warning of economic, political, and legal consequences. Trump said he didn't need anyone to explain the pros and cons. Ukraine has invited Russia to hold a new round of negotiations this week, with the negotiation date to be determined, and Istanbul will be the location for the third direct Russia - Ukraine negotiation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed by the U.S. Congress is expected to further increase the fiscal deficit, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy in the medium term [3][4][5]. Group 1: Impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - The act is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion from FY2025 to FY2035, surpassing the previous estimate of $2.8 trillion [5]. - The act extends tax cuts from Trump's first term but reduces government spending through measures like cutting child tax credits and lowering renewable energy subsidies [4][5]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the annual fiscal deficit could exceed $2 trillion, which is over 6% of GDP, indicating a significant fiscal challenge ahead [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context of Tariff Revenue - Historically, tariffs were a major source of U.S. government revenue, accounting for up to 90% of total revenue from 1790 to 1860, but this has significantly declined over the years [6][7]. - By 2024, tariffs are expected to contribute approximately 1.6% to total U.S. fiscal revenue, which is a modest recovery compared to historical levels [8]. Group 3: Recent Trends in Tariff Revenue - In June, U.S. tariff revenue exceeded $27 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates, indicating a potential short-term boost to fiscal income [9][10]. - The increase in tariff revenue may be influenced by temporary factors, such as strong import activity, which may not be sustainable in the long run [10][11]. Group 4: Uncertainties Surrounding Tariff Policy - The sustainability of current tariff rates is uncertain, as potential negotiations with trading partners could lead to reductions in tariffs, impacting future revenue [11][12]. - The overall economic impact of tariff policies on U.S. growth and fiscal revenue remains unclear, with potential retaliatory measures from other countries posing additional risks [12][13]. Group 5: Need for Comprehensive Fiscal Solutions - Relying solely on tariff revenue to address the growing fiscal deficit is insufficient, as even optimistic projections suggest limited contributions relative to the overall deficit [14]. - Achieving medium-term fiscal balance will require a multifaceted approach beyond just increasing tariff revenues [14].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. fiscal deficit is on an unsustainable path, which may lead to financial stability issues in the future [1] Group 1 - The current trajectory of the U.S. fiscal deficit raises concerns about long-term sustainability [1] - Potential implications of the fiscal deficit include risks to financial stability [1]

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was passed by both the Senate and House of Representatives, showcasing President Trump's strong control over the Republican Party [1][5] - The bill includes significant cuts to Medicaid, making it harder for beneficiaries to access healthcare, with an estimated 11.8 million Americans expected to lose Medicaid coverage over the next decade [2][9] - The bill will increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next ten years, leading to higher interest rates and increased costs for consumer loans and business financing [4][9] Group 2 - The bill has sparked intense political battles between the Republican and Democratic parties, reflecting deepening political divisions in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election [5][8] - The passage of the bill has been met with widespread skepticism regarding its economic impact, particularly concerning the potential increase in national debt and wealth inequality [9][11] - The bill is expected to disproportionately benefit the wealthiest Americans, with the top 20% of income earners projected to see an annual net income increase of nearly $13,000, while the lowest income group may experience a 1.1% decrease in post-tax income [12][11] Group 3 - The bill's passage has led to a public fallout between President Trump and Elon Musk, who criticized the bill for undermining fiscal responsibility and announced the formation of a new political party, the "American Party" [16][17] - The new party could potentially influence legislative processes if it gains traction, although establishing a new political party typically requires significant time and financial resources [17]

Group 1 - The U.S. government debt is projected to exceed $50 trillion within seven years due to the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" act and ongoing expansionary fiscal policies [1][3] - The current national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, marking a historical high, with the "Big and Beautiful" act expected to increase the fiscal deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade [3] - The act includes significant tax cuts, such as reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% permanently and raising the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, which will result in over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next ten years [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury may run out of "extraordinary measures" to address the debt ceiling issue by mid-August, with a projected $1 trillion increase in Treasury bond supply expected in the second half of 2025 [4] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the act will significantly worsen the fiscal deficit, potentially raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to around 120%, far exceeding international warning levels [4] - The act's tax cuts primarily benefit high-income households, particularly those earning between $200,000 and $500,000, while drastically cutting healthcare coverage for low-income individuals, with an estimated 17 million Americans losing insurance [4]

Group 1: Israel's Airstrikes in Yemen - Israel conducted intensive airstrikes on the port city of Hodeidah in western Yemen, targeting multiple locations including Hodeidah port, Ras Isa port, Salif port, and a local power station [2][4] - Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the military strikes were aimed at "Houthi targets" in the region, including the "Galaxy Leader" cargo ship that was seized by Houthi forces in November 2023 [3][2] - The airstrikes involved intelligence support from both the intelligence agency and the navy, with dozens of aircraft participating in the operation [4] Group 2: U.S. Flooding Disaster - In Texas, severe flooding has resulted in at least 79 fatalities and 41 individuals reported missing, with significant destruction reported at a summer camp along the Guadalupe River [6] - Texas Governor Abbott indicated that the state is ramping up rescue efforts and emphasized the commitment to find every missing child [6] Group 3: Political Developments in Suriname - Jennifer Simmons was elected as the first female president of Suriname, marking a significant milestone in the country's political landscape [7][8] - The National Democratic Party, led by Simmons, formed a coalition with a total of 34 seats in the new parliament, achieving a two-thirds majority [8] Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Policy and IMF Concerns - The IMF expressed concerns that the recently signed tax and spending bill by President Trump would exacerbate the U.S. fiscal deficit, contradicting the organization's recommendations for deficit reduction [9][10] - The IMF highlighted that the U.S. federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 98% of GDP by fiscal year 2024, up from 73% a decade ago, indicating a rising debt level [11]

Group 1: Israel's Airstrikes in Yemen - Israel conducted intensive airstrikes on the port city of Hodeidah in western Yemen, targeting multiple locations including Hodeidah port, Ras Isa port, Salif port, and a local power station [2][3] - Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the military strikes were aimed at "Houthi targets" and included the "Galaxy Leader" cargo ship, which was seized by Houthi forces in November 2023 [3][4] - The airstrikes were supported by intelligence agencies and the navy, involving dozens of aircraft in the operation [4] Group 2: U.S. Flooding Disaster - The recent flooding in Texas has resulted in at least 79 fatalities and 41 individuals reported missing, with significant destruction in areas like the Guadalupe River [5][6] - President Trump signed a major disaster declaration for Kerr County, Texas, indicating the federal government's commitment to assist local authorities in recovery efforts [6] - Texas Governor Abbott emphasized the ongoing rescue operations and the urgency to locate missing children from a summer camp affected by the floods [6] Group 3: Political Developments in Suriname - Jennifer Simmons was elected as the first female president of Suriname, marking a significant milestone in the country's political landscape [7][8] - The National Democratic Party, led by Simmons, secured a majority in the National Assembly, allowing her to be the sole candidate for the presidency [8] - Simmons is set to be sworn in on July 16, following her election by the one-chamber parliament [8] Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Policy and IMF Concerns - The recently signed tax and spending bill by President Trump is projected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit, contradicting IMF recommendations for deficit reduction [9][10] - IMF spokesperson Kozak highlighted that the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending plan would exacerbate the fiscal deficit, which is crucial for stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio [10][11] - The IMF has been advocating for tax increases to address the fiscal deficit, while the new bill continues the previous administration's policies and introduces additional tax cuts [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill on the U.S. economy, highlighting the resilience of the labor market despite uncertainties from trade and immigration policies, and the reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the near term [1][2][12]. Labor Market Resilience - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations of 106,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% [6]. - Government employment saw a significant increase of 73,000 jobs, particularly in state and local sectors related to education, while private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year [6][7]. - The labor force participation rate showed a decline, with a drop of 130,000 in the overall labor population, indicating a reduction in labor supply [7]. "Big and Beautiful" Bill Implications - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, passed by the House, extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals, with a focus on reducing corporate taxes, which is expected to benefit high-income groups while negatively impacting low-income households [9][10]. - The bill is projected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027, with a maximum effect of 0.6% in 2026-2027 [10]. - However, it is anticipated to lead to a significant increase in federal debt, with estimates suggesting a $4.5 trillion cost over the next decade due to extended tax cuts [11]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July has diminished, with a focus shifting towards inflation concerns rather than immediate economic deterioration [12][13]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts have become more pronounced, with some officials advocating for no cuts this year [14]. - The overall economic resilience may support a wait-and-see approach from the Federal Reserve, with a potential for rate cuts in September if conditions warrant [14].

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump is expected to significantly increase the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt risk, raising concerns about the long-term financial stability of the country [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Overview - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives with a vote of 218 in favor and 214 against, following its approval in the Senate [1]. - The bill extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals initially implemented in 2017, including provisions to exempt tips and overtime pay from taxation [1]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Preliminary analysis indicates that the bill could increase the U.S. deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade and reduce tax revenue for decades to come [1]. - The U.S. national debt currently stands at $36.2 trillion, and the bill is expected to exacerbate the structural deficit, making it more challenging for lawmakers to manage debt levels [2]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The bill has been criticized for potentially leading to cuts in federal assistance and increasing long-term debt, particularly benefiting wealthy individuals and large corporations [1]. - The growing debt burden is projected to have negative implications for future generations, as highlighted by experts [2].

Core Points - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was passed in the U.S. House of Representatives with a vote of 218 to 214, and is set to be signed by Trump on July 4 as a celebration of Independence Day [1] - The act is a significant tax and spending bill, extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, raising the debt ceiling, and increasing spending on border security, defense, and energy production [1][3] - Critics argue that the act primarily benefits wealthy individuals and corporations while low-income populations bear the brunt of the cuts to social welfare programs [1][5] Tax Cuts and Revenue Impact - The act is estimated to reduce U.S. tax revenue by approximately $4.5 trillion over the next decade, with many tax cuts from the 2017 act being made permanent [3][4] - Corporate tax rates will be permanently reduced from 35% to 21%, and additional tax incentives for business investments will be extended [3][4] - The act raises the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, benefiting households earning between $200,000 and $500,000, particularly in high-tax states [4] Social Welfare and Healthcare Cuts - The act is projected to cut $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade, disproportionately affecting low-income populations [5] - Medicaid funding is expected to be reduced by about $1 trillion, potentially leaving 12 million low-income individuals without healthcare coverage [7] - The tightening of eligibility for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) may lead to a $300 billion reduction in spending [8] Debt and Fiscal Concerns - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the act will increase the federal deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over the next decade, raising annual deficit rates to around 7% [9] - The debt ceiling will be raised by $5 trillion, with projections indicating that by 2034, U.S. national debt could reach 124% of GDP, the highest in history [9][11] - Interest payments on federal debt are already surpassing military spending, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [11] Defense and Energy Spending - The act includes an additional $150 billion for defense spending, with a focus on missile defense systems and military priorities [13] - Approximately $175 billion will be allocated for immigration and border enforcement, including $46.5 billion for border wall construction [14] - The act significantly reduces incentives for clean energy while increasing support for traditional energy sectors, reflecting a shift in U.S. energy policy [14][15]