Group 1 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting that the Fed should lower interest rates sooner rather than later, indicating a consensus among many [1] - Powell stated that Trump's calls for rate cuts do not influence the Fed's decisions, emphasizing that the appropriateness of rate cuts depends on various economic conditions [2] - The Fed has paused rate cuts for the third time, maintaining the interest rate range at 4.25% to 4.50% [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data shows a rebound in import prices for April, while consumer confidence remains low due to concerns over Trump's trade policies [3] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have diminished, with Goldman Sachs pushing back its forecast for a rate cut from July to December [3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising government debt and interest payments, with a stable outlook [3][4] Group 3 - Moody's projected that mandatory spending, including interest, will rise from approximately 73% of total spending in 2024 to 78% by 2035, indicating limited budget flexibility [4] - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a projected deficit exceeding $1.3 trillion for the first half of the fiscal year [4] - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022 [4] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that ongoing tariff policies will increase economic uncertainty, potentially leading to higher inflation and unemployment rates [5] - The U.S. has lost its Aaa rating from all three major international credit rating agencies, including Fitch and S&P [6]

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：必须警惕美国贸易政策对日本经济带来的下行风险。 ...

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：自4月以来，美国贸易政策取得了积极进展。 ...

瑞银：美联储可能在9月开始降息 金十数据5月8日讯，瑞银全球财富管理首席投资长马克•海费勒在一份报告中说，该行确认了美联储将 从9月份开始降息100个基点的预期，然而可能出现许多不同结果，取决于美国贸易政策如何演变。 ...

金十数据5月6日讯，美联储本周将召开为期两天的货币政策会议，在此之前，债券投资者持中性立场， 反映出他们对美国贸易政策的持续谨慎态度。这些政策有可能使世界最大经济体陷入衰退。固定收益投 资者表示，他们要么保持相对于基准的中性仓位，减少长期债券敞口，要么倾向于持有收益率曲线的短 端券种。弗吉尼亚州里士满Truist Advisory Services固定收益部董事总经理Chip Hughey说："经济数据愈 发疲软，政策冲击还可能对通胀前景和赤字水平产生影响，我们在不断升温的各种经济疑虑中处于一种 不安的平衡状态。" 美联储会议前债券投资者坚持中性立场，政策迷雾下避险成主流 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall domestic and overseas markets are affected by various factors such as policies, economic data, and trade situations during the May Day holiday. Different asset classes face different opportunities and risks, with most markets expected to show a certain degree of volatility and uncertainty [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Category Domestic Macro - The Politburo meeting at the end of April indicated the possibility of introducing incremental policies, including potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to whether these policies are implemented. - Overseas economic data releases and changes in US trade policy signals during the May Day holiday may cause significant fluctuations in overseas markets, which could impact the domestic market. - The domestic travel, tourism, and consumption situation during the May Day holiday should be monitored to see if it meets expectations [1]. Overseas Macro - The US is currently sending signals of trade relaxation, but new trade policy signals need to be watched for their impact on the market. - The release of Q1 GDP data in Europe and the US, as well as US April non - farm payrolls and PMI data during the May Day holiday, will have an impact on the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts and may also lead to concerns about the US economic stagflation risk [2]. Stock Index - The A - share market has recently rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3300 points. It shows strong resilience due to factors such as increased external demand pressure, the implementation of domestic policies, and support from capital market policies. - However, the domestic fundamental driving force is insufficient, and there are still disturbances from US tariff policies and performance disclosures. The index is expected to fluctuate within a range. - During the May Day holiday, attention should be paid to the impact of new US trade policy signals and European and American economic data on the domestic stock market [3]. Gold/Silver - With the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the potential for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled, and precious metals face high - level adjustment risks. - However, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut, the low - level operation of the US dollar index and US Treasury real yields provide some support for precious metals. - Economic data releases during the May Day holiday may bring uncertainties to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, which will affect precious metal prices [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel market has stopped falling during the May Day holiday, supported by expectations of crude steel reduction and macro - policy strengthening, but is still suppressed by overseas negative factors and shows a range - bound trend. - There are many risk factors during the holiday, including the possibility of repeated overseas trade conflicts and the release of US economic data, as well as the impact of seasonal consumption changes in the steel market [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fluctuated significantly due to the expectation of crude steel reduction. The movement of Singapore swaps during the holiday will have a greater impact on post - holiday prices. - Although the current steel mill profits are good and iron ore shipments are increasing, if the weak demand for steel continues, iron ore prices may decline in May [6]. Coking Coal/Coke - Coke and coking coal have continued their weak trend, with the second round of coke price increases failing. - As the downstream steel demand enters the off - season and the supply of coking coal remains high, the demand for coking coal and coke will continue to be weak after the holiday [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - High tariffs will have a long - term negative impact on the global economy, and domestic policies are more focused on service consumption. - The supply of copper concentrates is tight, but domestic smelting production is high. The demand is in the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. - Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with limited upside potential in the medium term. During the holiday, attention should be paid to US economic data and tariff negotiations, and partial profit - taking of long positions is recommended [8]. Aluminum - There is a lot of news about tariffs, and the US may reduce tariffs on China in the short term. - The production profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and production is at a high level. Demand is better than expected, and inventory is decreasing. - Considering the release of US economic data and new tariff news during the holiday, it is recommended to gradually close long positions in batches [8]. Tin - The supply of tin is affected by the possible resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, and the import volume is expected to remain high. - The demand for tin is polarized, with strong demand for solder. The inventory decline has slowed down. - Tin prices may rebound in the short term, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions before the holiday [9][10]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Short - term price drivers are limited, and the supply - demand situation is currently good. There is a possibility of a rebound, but attention should be paid to macro data and the progress of various negotiations. - The strategy of short - term long and long - term short remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to position risk control before the holiday [11]. Asphalt - The main risk lies in the crude oil market. Although the transfer of inventory from factories to the social market is smooth, supply is expected to increase in the future. - Short - term demand is not in the peak season, and there is a risk of over - supply. It is recommended to do a good job in risk control [11]. PX - PX prices rose due to a small squeeze in PTA, but there has been no substantial change in supply and demand. The PXN remains stable. - The PTA maintenance plan may change, and there is a possibility of negative feedback in the polyester market during the holiday. It is recommended to increase the risk - control level [12]. PTA - The basis has declined significantly before the holiday, and the near - end price has difficulty rising. After the May Day holiday, the downstream may reduce production, and the inventory reduction may slow down. - Attention should be paid to the impact of negative feedback from downstream factories on PTA prices [13][14]. Ethylene Glycol - Coal prices remain low, and the coal - to - ethylene glycol production capacity has recovered. The downstream may reduce production during the holiday, and inventory may accumulate. - Negative feedback may be transmitted to the upstream raw material end, and ethylene glycol may continue to decline slightly. Attention should be paid to risk control before the holiday [14]. Short - fiber - Demand is weak, and the downstream may increase the holiday time. Overseas orders have limited impact on domestic demand, and the short - fiber market will continue to be weak. Long positions should be held with caution during the holiday [14]. Methanol - The supply is lower than expected, and inventory has decreased due to pre - holiday restocking. However, future supply is expected to increase, which will suppress prices. - Attention should be paid to abnormal fluctuations in crude oil or the macro - economy during the holiday, and light positions are recommended. The impact of the Iranian port explosion also needs to be monitored [15]. PP - Downstream开工率 continues to decline slightly, and upstream maintenance has begun. Although the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, there may be negative demand feedback in the long term. - It is expected to be weak and volatile before the holiday, and light positions are recommended to avoid the risk of crude oil fluctuations [16]. LLDPE - The PE downstream is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking provides some support. Supply has increased slightly, and inventory has risen slightly. - It is expected to be weak and volatile before the holiday, and light positions are recommended to avoid the risk of crude oil fluctuations [17]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The premium of soybean meal futures over spot has declined in advance. The price of US soybeans provides support for soybean meal futures. - During the May Day holiday, the US soybean market is affected by weather and policy news, and the short - term decline space of the soybean meal 09 contract may be limited. It is recommended to reduce short - position risk exposure [18]. Edible Oils - The domestic edible oil fundamentals are relatively stable, but the unstable rise of US soybean oil driven by policy expectations is the main factor affecting cross - holiday fluctuations. - Domestic edible oils are in the process of inventory reduction, but there are still problems such as high inventory of some varieties. The US soybean oil is less likely to break through the 50 - cent/lb pressure before the second - quarter US biodiesel policy is implemented. - The market is uncertain during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold positions [18]. Live Pigs - The supply pressure in May is not urgent, and the spot price is expected to be stable in the range of 14 - 15 yuan/kg. The price difference across the holiday may be relatively small. - The futures market is expected to show a range - bound trend [19]. Corn - The expected corn imports for this crop year are likely to be reduced, and the supply - demand balance will be tightened. The C09 contract has strong support. - Weather conditions after the May Day holiday may affect the grain market. The corn futures have risen strongly, but there are differences between the futures and spot markets, and the market uncertainty is high. It is recommended to reduce positions and re - plan after the holiday [20].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：价格区间整理 关注氧化铝检修情况 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价区间运行。投资者谨慎等待美国贸易政策的进一步消 息，并准备迎接一周密集的经济数据，这些数据可能初步表明美国贸易政 策是否正在产生影响。 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运 ...