Group 1 - The global foreign exchange market is at a critical turning point, with the volatility of the US dollar creating opportunities for other major currencies [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) officials are calling for an enhancement of the euro's international status, indicating a shift in focus towards the European market [1] - Investor allocation strategies are changing, with a growing demand for diversification leading to increased attention on the European market [1] Group 2 - The euro has shown a strong upward trend against the US dollar, breaking the key resistance level of 1.14, with a recent high of 1.1454 on June 4 [3] - Data from the cross-currency basis swap market indicates a rising preference among investors for euro financing, contrasting with the historical trend of paying a premium for US dollar financing [3] - The relatively slow reduction of the ECB's balance sheet provides structural support for the euro, while the comparison of the US long-term budget deficit with Europe's stable net international investment position further strengthens the euro's relative advantage [3] Group 3 - The US dollar is facing multiple pressures, with non-farm payroll data aligning with signs of a slowing economy, which continues to exert pressure on the dollar [4] - The dollar index is under pressure from various factors, prompting investors to reassess their allocation towards dollar assets [4] - The dominance of the dollar as the international reserve currency is being challenged, as the economic size and trade scale of the eurozone provide a competitive foundation for the euro [4]

[table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：当地时间6月6日，美国劳工局公布2025年5月美国非农就业数据。美国5月季调后非 农就业人口新增13.9万人，预期12.6万人，前值14.7万人。5月失业率维持在4.2%不变。 总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月08日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [就业表面虽有韧性，背后暗涌 Table_NewTitle] 不容忽视 ——海外观察：美国2025年5月非农数据 liusj@longone.com.cn ➢ 核心观点：美国5月非农新增就业数据保持温和降温的态势，虽略高于预期，但需要注意 的是 "小非农"ADP的意外回落已经降低了市场对于当月NFP的预期。分项来看，服务 行业依然是主要就业贡献部门，并且呈现边际增速上升的态势；生产部门就业市场降温明 显，或是由于零售部门持续低迷使得生产部门放缓了产出。值得注意的是，除了零售和运 输，几乎所有部门5月时薪增速均呈现出 ...

Employment Data Summary - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly above the expected 126,000, but down from the previous month's revised figure of 147,000[1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4%[2] - The ADP report indicated a surprising drop, which lowered market expectations for the NFP figures[2] Sector Performance - The service sector contributed significantly with 145,000 new jobs, particularly in education and healthcare (87,000) and leisure and hospitality (48,000)[2] - The manufacturing sector saw a decline, with a loss of 5,000 jobs, attributed to a slowdown in retail demand impacting production[2] - Government employment decreased slightly by 1,000 jobs, primarily due to federal layoffs, although local government jobs increased[2] Wage Growth and Market Implications - Average hourly earnings showed an upward trend across most sectors, excluding retail and transportation, indicating persistent wage growth[2] - The data suggests that the Federal Reserve may not rush to cut interest rates due to the sticky wage levels, despite the overall cooling in the job market[2] - Following the report, market risk appetite increased, leading to higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar[2]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index rose over 1.1%, the Dow Jones increased by 530 points with a gain of more than 1.2%, and the Nasdaq gained 260 points, up over 1.3% [1] - Following the release of the non-farm payroll data, Trump praised the employment figures as "outstanding," attributing the significant rise in the stock market to these positive employment statistics [1] Group 2 - The latest stock price reached 6008.13, reflecting an increase of 68.83 or 1.16% from the previous close of 5939.30 [2] - The trading volume was reported at 459 million shares, indicating active market participation [2] - The stock experienced a daily high of 6016.87 and a low of 5987.06, with a trading range of 0.50% [2]

美国就业好或坏，非农数据来把脉。美国5月非农就业人数将新增多少人？点击参与竞猜，赢取红包大 奖>> 相关链接 非农竞猜日，红包送不停 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data exceeded market expectations, indicating a steady expansion in the labor market, but signs of cooling are emerging, suggesting potential future increases in the unemployment rate [1][5][17]. Employment Data Summary - In April, the U.S. added 177,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 138,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2% and a labor participation rate of 62.6% [1][5]. - The three-month moving average for job additions stands at 155,000, reflecting a stable growth trend [5]. - Job growth is concentrated in sectors experiencing labor shortages, with education and healthcare contributing 70,000 jobs, trade adding 29,000, and leisure and hospitality contributing 24,000, accounting for 69.5% of the total job additions [5][6]. Signs of Labor Market Cooling - Job vacancy rates have declined, with the vacancy rate dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 4.3%, indicating a potential shift towards equilibrium in the labor market [8][10]. - The ratio of job vacancies to job seekers has decreased to 1.03, suggesting that the labor market is nearing a balance between supply and demand [8]. - Wage growth has softened, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, indicating a shift from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market" [12][14]. Unemployment Structure and Trends - The number of permanent jobless individuals surged by 105,000 to 1.915 million, while the number of individuals re-entering the labor market increased by 60,000 to 2.236 million, reflecting a deteriorating unemployment structure [15][17]. - Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 18,000 to 241,000, significantly above seasonal levels, indicating rising unemployment [15][16]. Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy - The combination of tariff impacts on corporate profits and household finances may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts mid-year [17][19]. - Long-term, the strict immigration policies may affect labor supply, and the anticipated decline in interest rates could support economic stability, suggesting that any rise in unemployment may be relatively moderate [17][19]. Market Strategy - The company maintains a cautious approach towards U.S. Treasury bonds, with entry points set at 4.4% for 10-year bonds and 4.1% for 5-year bonds, while also anticipating a potential technical rebound in the U.S. dollar in Q2 [3][19]. - The market's reaction to the strong employment data indicates a belief in the resilience of the labor market, with expectations of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [18][19].

Group 1 - The "Private Economy Promotion Law" was passed, marking the first foundational law specifically for the development of the private economy in China, effective from May 20, 2025. It addresses key concerns such as "fair competition," "investment and financing promotion," "technological innovation," "business regulation," "service guarantee," and "rights protection" for private enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce noted that the U.S. has expressed willingness to negotiate on tariff issues, and China is currently evaluating this situation [2] Group 3 - A new proactive fiscal policy is set to be introduced in 2024, including a one-time increase of 6 trillion yuan in local special bond limits to replace hidden debts, issuance of special government bonds to support state-owned banks, and measures to stabilize the real estate market [3] Group 4 - In April, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% [4] Group 5 - The U.S. President announced a 100% tariff on all films produced abroad entering the U.S., indicating a significant trade policy shift [5] Group 6 - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. This led to a decrease in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] Group 7 - Global risk assets saw a comprehensive rise, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading with a 3.1% increase, indicating a recovery trend in Chinese assets [7] Group 8 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened by purchasing 46.539 billion HKD in U.S. dollars to maintain the currency peg, marking its first intervention in five years [8] Group 9 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority attributed the recent strength of the Hong Kong dollar to increased demand related to stock investments and the appreciation of several regional currencies against the U.S. dollar [9] Group 10 - Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting addressed trade policies and investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of global trade [10] Group 11 - New energy vehicle companies reported significant growth in April deliveries, with XPeng Motors seeing a 273% year-on-year increase [11] Group 12 - Travel booking platform Fliggy reported an over 80% increase in customized travel bookings for the May Day holiday, indicating a shift towards more personalized travel experiences [12] Group 13 - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in June, reflecting a response to current market conditions [13] Group 14 - Upcoming new stock offerings include three companies, with specific details on their subscription codes [14] Group 15 - CITIC Securities indicated that risk appetite is expected to rise in May, focusing on themes related to technology and consumption [15] Group 16 - Zhongtai Securities highlighted that opportunities in May will be more pronounced in technology, consumption, and certain cyclical sectors, suggesting a focus on improving performance and policy support [16]

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 就业稳健，令美联储"有条件再等一等" ——4 月美国非农就业数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 4 月，美国非农就业数据高于预期，整体来看关税对就业市场的冲击尚未完全显现。家 庭调查数据来看，美国季调失业率持平于前值，仍为 4.2%符合预期。整体而言，当前美国劳动 力市场仍然处于缓降温进程，关税对就业市场的影响尚未显现，美联储仍有继续等待的空间。 往前看，我们认为，美国就业市场的超预期稳健让美联储"有条件再等一等"，未来，密集的贸 易谈判后，各国"对等关税"的落地情况，及其对美国经济的实际影响将是决定后续货币政策 的关键。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 就业稳健，令美联储"有条件再等一等" 2] ——4 月美国非农就业数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 5 月 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Following the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data, traders still anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates nearly four times this year [1] Group 1 - The expectation of interest rate cuts reflects traders' confidence in a potential easing of monetary policy [1] - The non-farm payroll data may influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the anticipation surrounding the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report and its potential impact on the market [1] - It highlights the significance of the non-farm employment data in relation to the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions [1] - The article encourages participation in a contest related to the April non-farm employment numbers, offering prizes for accurate predictions [1]