Core Viewpoint - The optimistic sentiment regarding interest rate cuts has eased, leading to a focus on upcoming U.S. PCE data for clues on Federal Reserve policy, which has limited the bullish outlook for gold prices [1] Price Movement - On August 25, gold opened at $3,371.93 per ounce, fluctuated between a low of $3,359.65 and a high of $3,375.94, and closed at $3,365.52, marking a decline of $6.71 or 0.2% [3] - The following day, gold continued to show weakness due to a stronger U.S. dollar, but there are still support levels that could lead to a potential rebound [3][6] Dollar Index - The dollar index has returned to a bullish trend, with increased momentum, although it remains below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential upward movement towards the 200-week moving average, which could limit gold's bullish potential [5] Market Indicators - The market is expected to focus on various U.S. economic indicators, including July durable goods orders and consumer confidence index, which are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices [6] - Historical patterns suggest that after a period of consolidation, gold prices are likely to rise again, despite some bearish signals in the indicators [8] Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,270 and $3,220, which could present buying opportunities if prices decline [8] - Resistance levels to watch include $3,386 and $3,400, with a potential target of $3,450 for upward movement [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has significantly influenced the gold market, leading to a notable price increase following his remarks on potential interest rate adjustments [1]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold experienced a rebound after hitting a low of $3321, surging to $3378 post-Powell's speech, and closing at $3371, forming a strong bullish candlestick [1]. - The market is closely monitoring Powell's comments for further insights, as any new perspectives on the Federal Reserve's policy could impact market sentiment on Monday [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - If the market interprets Powell's remarks as dovish or if significant risk events occur over the weekend, gold prices could break above $3380, with targets set around $3400 [2]. - Conversely, if Powell's comments are seen as hawkish or geopolitical risks diminish, a drop below $3360 could lead to short positions, targeting $3340-$3330 [2]. - The gold market is currently at a critical technical juncture, and the upcoming week may set the tone for the fourth-quarter trends [2].

Group 1 - Gold stocks generally weakened, with Lingbao Gold (03330) down 4% to HKD 11.03, Chifeng Gold (06693) down 2.82% to HKD 24.1, Shandong Gold (01787) down 2.79% to HKD 26.46, China Gold International (02099) down 2.52% to HKD 79.25, and Zijin Mining (02899) down 2.13% to HKD 22.98 [1] - The market is awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's public speech later this week, while also monitoring the potential easing of Eastern European geopolitical conflicts [1] - The slight increase in the US dollar index has put pressure on gold prices, leading to a minor decline in international gold prices on Monday [1] Group 2 - CITIC Futures indicates that the future trend of gold will primarily depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and geopolitical developments [1] - If the Federal Reserve signals a stronger inclination towards interest rate cuts or if geopolitical risks escalate, gold prices may continue to rebound; conversely, if economic data remains strong and suppresses rate cut expectations or if geopolitical tensions ease, gold may face downward pressure [1] - Investors should pay close attention to this week's FOMC meeting minutes and Powell's speech at Jackson Hole [1]

Group 1 - Gold stocks generally weakened, with Lingbao Gold down 4% at HKD 11.03, Chifeng Gold down 2.82% at HKD 24.1, Shandong Gold down 2.79% at HKD 26.46, China Gold International down 2.52% at HKD 79.25, and Zijin Mining down 2.13% at HKD 22.98 [1] - The market is awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's public speech later this week, while also monitoring the potential easing of Eastern European geopolitical conflicts [1] - The slight increase in the US dollar index has put pressure on gold prices, leading to a minor decline in international gold prices on Monday [1] Group 2 - CITIC Futures indicates that the future trend of gold will primarily depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and geopolitical developments [1] - If the Federal Reserve signals a stronger inclination towards interest rate cuts or if geopolitical risks escalate, gold prices may continue to rebound; conversely, if economic data remains strong and suppresses rate cut expectations or if geopolitical tensions ease, gold may face downward pressure [1] - Investors should pay close attention to this week's FOMC meeting minutes and Powell's speech at Jackson Hole [1]

Core Insights - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased following the release of lower-than-expected CPI data for July [1] - The July CPI year-on-year remained at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core CPI for July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3%, marking the highest level since February [1] - Following the data release, traders adjusted their bets on a September rate cut, with the probability now at 95% [1] Market Reactions - After the CPI data was released, COMEX gold futures saw a slight decline of 0.15%, closing at $3399.60 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.39%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.06% [1] Analysis and Outlook - The moderate performance of the July CPI data injected a brief sense of optimism into the market, but the overall inflation growth rate being below expectations, combined with weak non-farm employment data, reinforced the anticipation of a September rate cut [1] - Concerns regarding data quality and upward pressure on core CPI suggest that investors should remain cautious [1] - Short-term market volatility may increase, but the long-term trend will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the evolution of the global macroeconomic environment [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - LME lead inventory reduction supports lead prices [1] - The US ISM services PMI shows signs of weakness with high price indices, and investors are worried about stagflation risks affecting the Fed's policy path and dampening rate - cut expectations [2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,855 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; the LME 3M electronic lead contract closed at 1,975.5 dollars/ton, up 0.61% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 48,645 lots, an increase of 8,512 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 6,919 lots, a decrease of 97 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 65,019 lots, a decrease of 7,064 lots; the LME lead open interest was 150,024 lots, an increase of 584 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 41.92 dollars/ton, down 3.42 dollars/ton [1] - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 515.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.13 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of the continuous third - month Shanghai lead contract was - 544.72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.84 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 58,656 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 268,600 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 66,900 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was - 399 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton [1] News - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, can select the Fed chair through vacant governor positions, and rules out Treasury Secretary Bessent as a candidate for Fed chair [2] - The US ISM services PMI shows weakness and high price indices, causing investors to worry about stagflation risks and affecting the Fed's policy path and rate - cut expectations [2] Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral state [2]

Group 1: Earnings Reports Impact - Several technology stocks experienced significant declines in after-hours trading, with Supermicro falling over 16%, Snap dropping over 14%, and AMD decreasing over 6% due to disappointing earnings reports [1][2] - Supermicro's Q4 FY2025 net sales were $5.76 billion, below analyst expectations of $6.01 billion, with a gross margin of 9.6%, lower than the anticipated 10% [2] - Snap reported Q2 sales of $1.345 billion, slightly below the expected $1.35 billion, and a net loss of $262.6 million, compared to a loss of $248.6 million in the same period last year [3] - AMD's Q2 revenue grew 32% year-over-year to $7.7 billion, exceeding expectations, but adjusted EPS was $0.48, below the forecast of $0.49 [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The overall U.S. stock market saw a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, S&P 500 down 0.49%, and Nasdaq down 0.65%, with over 4,700 stocks falling [5] - The ISM services PMI for July was reported at 50.1, below the expected 51.5, indicating near stagnation in service sector growth [7] - The employment sub-index fell to 46.4, the lowest since the pandemic, indicating increased layoff pressures, while the prices index rose to 69.9, suggesting rising inflationary pressures [8] - Recent tariff announcements by President Trump, including a potential 250% tariff on imported drugs and upcoming tariffs on semiconductors, have negatively impacted market sentiment [8]

Group 1: Employment Data Insights - The U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.1% and a moderate wage growth recovery [1] - The education sector contributed 40,000 jobs, while healthcare added 39,000 positions; however, the federal government cut 7,000 jobs, and key sectors like manufacturing and retail showed no significant growth [1] - ADP's small business employment data unexpectedly declined by 33,000 jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with the service sector experiencing its largest drop since the pandemic [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Investment Challenges - The divergence between official employment data and private sector performance has created uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction, leading to significant fluctuations in gold futures prices [1] - Historical data indicates that weaker-than-expected employment figures can lead to an average gold price increase of $7.83, while stronger figures typically result in a decrease of $5.07 [2] Group 3: Trading Solutions by Jinseng Precious Metals - Jinseng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, offers a three-dimensional system combining regulatory backing, technological innovation, and intelligent risk control to provide a secure trading environment [2][7] - The company boasts millisecond-level trading response times, significantly reducing order execution delays and ensuring quick transactions even during extreme market conditions [2][3] - An intelligent risk control system utilizes AI algorithms to identify key support and resistance levels, providing proactive management of trading positions [3] Group 4: Cost Efficiency and Transparency - Jinseng Precious Metals offers a competitive spread of $0.15 per ounce for London gold, saving over 30% compared to the industry average, which can lead to substantial savings for high-frequency traders [5] - The platform implements a "zero commission" policy and an instant rebate mechanism, allowing traders to quickly adjust positions during volatile market conditions [5] Group 5: Strategic Services and Market Analysis - The company provides scenario-based services, including pre-release reports on non-farm data, combining technical and fundamental analysis to offer trading strategy recommendations [6] - An integrated smart alert system allows investors to set custom price thresholds, automatically triggering profit-taking or stop-loss orders during significant price movements [6]

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced a slight decline due to investors remaining cautious ahead of the U.S. employment data release, with daily fluctuations under $20 [1] - The U.S. dollar regained buying interest, reversing its previous decline caused by concerns over U.S. tariffs and Trump's "big and beautiful plan," which limited the upward potential for gold prices [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming U.S. ADP private sector employment data and the June non-farm payroll data, which will provide more insights into labor market conditions [3] Group 2 - The current trend for gold remains stable, with limited downside movement, and the market is still leaning towards a bullish outlook despite smaller fluctuations compared to the previous day [5] - A support level is identified around 3325, with a target range set between 3350-3355 for potential upward movement [7]

Geopolitical and Economic Context - The U.S. launched an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to retaliatory actions from Iran, escalating geopolitical tensions. However, market fatigue regarding geopolitical risks has led investors to focus more on Federal Reserve policy and economic data, resulting in gold prices not significantly rising despite the conflict escalation. The uncertainty in geopolitical situations still provides some safe-haven support for gold [2] - Recent U.S. economic data shows signs of weakness, with May retail sales dropping 0.9%, significantly worse than the expected -0.1%, and industrial production unexpectedly declining by 0.2%. This indicates weakening consumer demand and manufacturing momentum, potentially heightening concerns about the difficulty of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, indirectly supporting gold's safe-haven attributes [2] - Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve pushed the U.S. dollar index to a high of 99.03 on June 19, fluctuating around 98.64 on June 23. A stronger dollar directly suppresses gold priced in dollars, with New York gold futures facing pressure around $3,380. Additionally, the two-year Treasury yield dropped 5 basis points to 3.88%, while the ten-year yield remained above 4.2%. Rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to short-term pressure on gold prices [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - The spot gold price opened at $3,389.87 per ounce, experiencing significant fluctuations throughout the day, closing at $3,369.04 with a small bearish candle. The daily closing price is near the moving average, indicating potential oscillation around this level, with a downward bias in price structure [5] - Hourly price movements are entangled with moving averages, showing no clear direction. Currently near the previous day's low, it is advisable to wait for the market to choose a direction before taking action. The 15-minute chart indicates a strong downward movement at the previous day's close, suggesting the likelihood of new lows, with a recommendation to sell on rallies [6] Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver opened at $35.9665, showing intraday fluctuations with a slight upward bias, closing at $36.080 with a small doji candle. The closing price is above the 20-day moving average, with multiple retests indicating stabilization, suggesting a bullish outlook and opportunities for long positions [8] - The hourly chart indicates that the pullback is nearly complete, beginning a bottoming oscillation phase, with a mixed directional outlook. It is recommended to wait for the market to establish a clear direction before taking action. The 15-minute chart shows a significant drop at the previous day's close, finding support at the bottom, and currently showing signs of a rebound, likely within a range-bound movement [8]