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【广发宏观吴棋滢】税收收入增速进一步有所好转
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-08-19 15:43
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of tax revenue in July, highlighting a 4% year-on-year increase, while non-tax revenue continues to decline, indicating a reduced reliance on non-tax income by the government [1][5]. Revenue Analysis - In the first seven months, general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year, meeting the initial budget target, with tax revenue showing a cumulative decline of 0.3%, leaving room for improvement towards the annual target of 3.7% [1][5]. - The four major tax categories performed strongly, with personal income tax rising by 13.9% year-on-year, significantly exceeding seasonal levels, attributed to factors such as a strong equity market and improved tax collection management [10][11]. - Corporate income tax showed a cumulative decline of 0.4% year-on-year, reflecting low corporate profitability amid low PPI levels, although July saw a monthly increase of 6.4% [10][11]. - Domestic consumption tax increased by 5.4% year-on-year, influenced by previous adjustments in consumption tax policies for automobiles [10][11]. - Stamp duty on securities transactions surged by 58% year-on-year in July, marking a significant increase [10][11]. Expenditure Analysis - In July, general public budget expenditure rose by 3.0% year-on-year, driven primarily by social security, health care, and debt servicing, while infrastructure spending declined by 3.6% [2][12]. - Cumulative expenditure from January to July increased by 3.4% year-on-year, slightly below the budget target of 4.4%, indicating a slower spending pace compared to the previous year [2][12]. - The increase in fiscal deposits is attributed to the front-loaded issuance of government bonds, which has allowed for smoother expenditure patterns and potential recovery in fiscal spending growth in the coming months [2][12]. Land Revenue and Market Trends - Land transfer revenue in July grew by 7.2% year-on-year, although cumulative growth for the year narrowed to -4.6% [3][18]. - High-frequency data indicates a 31.5% year-on-year decline in land transfer revenue for residential land in 300 cities in the first half of August, primarily influenced by first- and second-tier cities [3][18]. - The government is expected to implement strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, which may impact future fiscal policies and land revenue [3][18]. Infrastructure Investment Insights - Weak infrastructure investment in June and July is identified as a macroeconomic characteristic, potentially leading to looser narrow liquidity conditions [4][21]. - The government has emphasized the need to accelerate effective investment and the disbursement of new policy financial tools, which is likely to support construction activity in the latter half of the year [4][21].
1-7月一般公共预算收入增速转正,背后是这些原因
Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 13.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth in revenue this year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Tax revenue for the same period was 11.09 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 2% [1] - The domestic value-added tax generated approximately 4.26 trillion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in industrial and service sectors [2] - Corporate income tax revenue was about 3.06 trillion yuan, down 0.4%, reflecting pressure on corporate profits [2] - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax totaled 1.03 trillion yuan, down 6.1%, consistent with weak import trends [2] - Personal income tax revenue reached 927.9 billion yuan, up 8.8%, attributed to stable growth in resident income and improved tax administration [2] Monthly Trends - From April onwards, monthly tax revenue has shown continuous positive growth for four consecutive months, with July seeing a significant increase of 5% [4][6] - The cumulative decline in tax revenue narrowed significantly, with the year-on-year decline for the first seven months reducing from -1.2% in the first half to -0.3% [6] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed good tax revenue performance, with specific growth rates of 33% for railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment, and 12.7% for scientific research and technical services [6] Government Expenditure - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months was 16.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant growth in social security and employment spending by 9.8% [10] - The total government expenditure, including special bonds, showed a strong increase of 31.7% [10] - The broad fiscal expenditure, combining general public budget and government fund budget, grew by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, indicating robust fiscal support for economic growth [10]
一文读懂前7月财政数据:财政收入增速由负转正
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 10:47
Group 1 - The overall fiscal revenue is recovering, supported by increased government bond issuance, while fiscal expenditure remains robust [1][6] - In the first seven months of the year, the national general public budget revenue reached 135839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [2] - The tax revenue for the same period was 110933 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing [2][4] Group 2 - The growth rate of tax revenue has not kept pace with economic growth, which was 5.3% in the first half of the year [2][3] - Major tax categories showed improvement, with domestic value-added tax increasing by 3%, domestic consumption tax by 2.1%, and personal income tax by 8.8% [4] - Non-tax revenue grew by 2% to 24906 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's growth of 12% [5] Group 3 - Government fund budget revenue was 23124 billion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue declining by 4.6% [6] - Fiscal expenditure for the first seven months was 160737 billion yuan, up 3.4%, with social security and education spending growing above average [6][7] - Government fund budget expenditure surged by 31.7% to 54287 billion yuan, primarily directed towards major project construction [7]
7月税收收入同比增长5%,增速明显改善背后是这些原因
Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 13.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth in revenue for the year [1] - Tax revenue totaled 11.09 trillion yuan, a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 2% to 2.49 trillion yuan [1] - The recovery in fiscal revenue growth in July was attributed to improved corporate profit expectations and the wealth effect from the rising Shanghai Composite Index [1] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax revenue was approximately 4.26 trillion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in industrial and service sectors [2] - Corporate income tax revenue was about 3.06 trillion yuan, down 0.4%, reflecting pressure on corporate profits [2] - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax totaled 1.03 trillion yuan, down 6.1%, consistent with weak import trends [2] - Personal income tax revenue reached 927.9 billion yuan, up 8.8%, supported by stable growth in resident income and improved tax administration [2] - Securities transaction stamp duty revenue was 936 billion yuan, up 62.5%, indicating active capital market trading [2] Monthly Trends - From April onwards, monthly tax revenue has shown continuous positive growth for four consecutive months, with July seeing a significant increase of 5% [2][4] - The cumulative decline in tax revenue narrowed significantly, with a reduction of 0.3% for the first seven months compared to a 1.2% decline in the first half of the year [4] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed strong tax revenue performance, with notable increases in specific industries like railway and aerospace equipment [5] - The overall tax revenue performance is expected to improve in the second half of the year, driven by stable economic conditions and active capital markets [6] Government Expenditure - From January to July, national general public budget expenditure reached 16.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant growth in social security, education, and health expenditures [9] - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, contributing to a stronger fiscal expenditure environment [9] - The broad fiscal expenditure, combining general public budget and government fund expenditures, grew by 8.9% year-on-year, marking a strong performance [10]
前7月全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元 同比增长0.1%
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-08-19 08:51
National General Public Budget Revenue - National general public budget revenue for January to July reached 135839 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 110933 billion, showing a decline of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 24906 billion, increasing by 2% [1] - Central government revenue was 58538 billion, down 2% year-on-year, while local government revenue was 77301 billion, up 1.8% [1] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax collected was 42551 billion, reflecting a growth of 3% [2] - Domestic consumption tax totaled 10213 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [3] - Corporate income tax revenue was 30566 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.4% [4] - Personal income tax reached 9279 billion, marking an increase of 8.8% [5] - Import VAT and consumption tax amounted to 10300 billion, down 6.1%, while customs duties were 1316 billion, decreasing by 6.5% [6] - Export tax rebates were 14065 billion, up 9.7% [7] - Urban maintenance and construction tax was 3105 billion, increasing by 2.7% [8] - Vehicle purchase tax was 1183 billion, down significantly by 18.4% [9] - Stamp duty revenue was 2559 billion, with a notable increase of 20.7%, including a 62.5% rise in securities transaction stamp duty [10] - Resource tax collected was 1747 billion, down 1.6% [11] - Decrease in deed tax revenue to 2694 billion, down 15% [12] - Property tax revenue was 3201 billion, increasing by 11.2% [13] - Urban land use tax reached 1653 billion, up 5.8% [14] - Land value increment tax was 2786 billion, down 17.8% [15] - Cultivated land occupation tax was 918 billion, increasing by 3.1% [16] - Environmental protection tax revenue was 190 billion, up 12.5% [17] - Other tax revenues totaled 737 billion, with a slight increase of 0.9% [18] National General Public Budget Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure for January to July was 160737 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [19] - Central government expenditure was 23327 billion, up 8.8%, while local government expenditure was 137410 billion, increasing by 2.5% [19] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 24438 billion, increasing by 5.7% [20] - Science and technology expenditure was 5330 billion, up 3.2% [21] - Cultural, tourism, sports, and media expenditure totaled 2012 billion, increasing by 5.3% [22] - Social security and employment expenditure was 27621 billion, up 9.8% [22] - Health expenditure reached 12402 billion, increasing by 5.3% [22] - Energy conservation and environmental protection expenditure was 2949 billion, up 4.3% [22] - Urban and rural community expenditure was 11185 billion, down 3.5% [22] - Agriculture, forestry, and water expenditure was 12323 billion, down 7.7% [22] - Transportation expenditure was 6340 billion, down 3.3% [22] - Debt interest payment expenditure was 7573 billion, increasing by 6.4% [22] National Government Fund Budget Revenue - National government fund budget revenue for January to July was 23124 billion, a decrease of 0.7% [23] - Central government fund budget revenue was 2596 billion, up 8.8%, while local government fund budget revenue was 20528 billion, down 1.8% [23] - Revenue from state-owned land use rights transfer was 16950 billion, down 4.6% [23] National Government Fund Budget Expenditure - National government fund budget expenditure for January to July was 54287 billion, a significant increase of 31.7% [23] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 7109 billion, up 4.5 times, while local government fund budget expenditure was 47178 billion, increasing by 18.1% [23] - Expenditure related to state-owned land use rights transfer was 23572 billion, down 6.1% [23]
前7个月财政收入由负转正,卖地收入降幅收窄
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 08:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of China's public budget revenue and expenditure in the first seven months of the year, with a slight increase in local revenue but a decline in central revenue [1][2] - National general public budget revenue reached 135839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the central budget revenue was 58538 billion yuan, down 2% [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 110933 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3%, while non-tax revenue was 24906 billion yuan, an increase of 2% [2] Group 2 - Total public budget expenditure was 160737 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with central expenditure at 23327 billion yuan, up 8.8% [2] - Specific areas of expenditure such as social security and employment, education, and health saw significant increases of 9.8%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively [3] - Government fund budget revenue was 23124 billion yuan, down 0.7%, with local government fund revenue declining by 1.8% [5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that fiscal policy is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for timely implementation of existing policies and the introduction of new measures [5] - Recommendations include accelerating local debt issuance, considering the issuance of special government bonds, and enhancing investment in human capital to boost consumption [5][6] - The focus areas for fiscal support include increasing transfer income for residents, promoting consumption through trade-in programs, and accelerating public spending in technology and infrastructure [6]
新增贷款转负,意料之外
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-14 02:01
Loan and Financing Data - New social financing (社融) in July was 11,600 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3,893 billion CNY, but below the market expectation of 14,100 billion CNY[1] - New RMB loans turned negative at -500 billion CNY, a decline of 3,100 billion CNY year-on-year, marking the first negative value since July 2005[1] - The scale of new government bonds reached 12,440 billion CNY in July, an increase of 5,559 billion CNY year-on-year, contributing significantly to new social financing[2] Economic Demand and Loan Trends - New loans to the real economy fell sharply to -4,263 billion CNY, setting a historical low since data collection began[2] - New household loans were -4,893 billion CNY, a decrease of 2,793 billion CNY year-on-year, indicating weak consumer demand[3] - New corporate loans were 600 billion CNY, with short-term loans at -5,500 billion CNY and medium to long-term loans at -2,600 billion CNY, the latter marking the first negative value since August 2016[4] Financial Market Insights - M1 money supply grew by 5.6% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.3%, but this growth is attributed to a low base effect rather than active deposit mobilization[5] - Non-bank financial institutions saw an increase in deposits by 2,100 billion CNY, while household deposits decreased by 1,100 billion CNY, suggesting a shift of funds from banks to non-bank entities[6] - The overall financial data for July indicates a slow recovery in demand, necessitating potential monetary easing measures to stimulate economic activity[6]
斯本年度前七个月财政赤字有所增长
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-12 13:56
主要支出中,养老金支出占11亿欧元,同比增长8.4%;社会保障支出13亿欧元增长2.7%;投资支出6.12 亿欧元增长1.1%,涉及军队现代化与交通基础设施。补贴支出为3.32亿欧元,同比减少8400万欧元,反 映出对能源和洪灾援助的逐步退坡。 斯通社8月8日卢布尔雅那消息,斯洛文尼亚国家财政今年前七个月的支出较去年同期增长7.4%,达91 亿欧元,占全年预算的53.1%;同期收入为82亿欧元,同比增长2.9%,占全年预算的53.6%。财政赤字 为9.12亿欧元,比去年增加3.99亿欧元。财政部表示增长仍在预期以内。 在收入方面,税收是主要来源,总额达72亿欧元,同比增长4.3%。其中增值税为32亿欧元,所得税为 12亿欧元,企业所得税收入则同比减少14%,为10亿欧元。消费税收入略降至9.29亿欧元,主要因烟酒 税减少。整体来看,财政运行仍属可控,但企业税收下降趋势值得警惕。 ...
财政收入延续增长凸显我国经济韧性
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-08-08 07:59
财政部近日发布的数据显示,今年前4个月,全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元,同比下降0.4%, 降幅较一季度收窄0.7个百分点;全国一般公共预算支出93581亿元,同比增长4.6%,完成预算的 31.5%,支出进度为2020年以来同期最快。 1至4月,全国非税收入15060亿元,同比增长7.7%,主要是多渠道盘活资产等带动。4月份,非税 收入增速进一步降至1.7%。对此,温彬表示,今年以来,非税收入增速持续放缓,主要是随着化债资 金落实到位,地方政府财政状况有所好转,对资产盘活的依赖度下降。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园表示,4月份,一般财政收入增速进一步抬升,税收收入增速由负转 正,四大税种中个税收入改善是主要支撑,其余税种走弱,可能与入库节奏有关。另外,国有资产盘活 较难持续,非税收入增速为去年3月份以来最低水平。 具体到4月份,一般公共预算收入同比增长1.9%,增速较上月加快1.6个百分点。其中,税收收入增 速加快4.1个百分点至1.9%,非税收入增速放缓4.3个百分点至1.7%;一般公共预算支出同比增长5.8%, 增速较上月加快0.1百分点。 中央财经大学教授温来成在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示,今年前 ...
拉加经委会预计2025年拉美和加勒比地区经济增长2.2%
Xin Hua She· 2025-08-06 10:24
报告还指出,随着经济增长放缓,预计拉美地区的就业增长也将受限。此外,预计2025年至2026年 该地区通货膨胀率将保持在3%左右,由于国际粮食和能源价格都可能上升,通胀上行压力和风险持续 存在。 报告认为,应从提升财政支出效率、优化税收管理、改革国际金融体系、完善主权债务解决机制、 加强开发银行在资源调动中的作用等方面入手,提升拉美地区发展融资能力。 新华社圣地亚哥8月5日电(记者朱雨博)联合国拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会(拉加经委会)5日 在智利首都圣地亚哥发布的年度经济研究报告中指出,2025年拉美和加勒比地区经济预计增长2.2%, 2026年将增长2.3%。 报告指出,2025年至2026年,受地缘政治冲突加剧、金融环境紧缩、国际贸易疲软等外部因素和消 费萎靡等内部因素影响,拉美地区经济前景面临高度不确定性,或将导致该地区国家赤字扩大,对外资 产生更多依赖。 分区域来看,报告预计南美洲经济今年将增长2.7%,高于地区平均水平,这主要得益于阿根廷、 厄瓜多尔、哥伦比亚等国的经济表现;中美洲和墨西哥经济将增长1.0%,增速同比大幅下滑,主要由 于来自美国的需求缩水;加勒比地区(不含圭亚那)经济将增长1.8%, ...