Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes that under pressure on the revenue side, the government may rely more on debt issuance this year, as tax revenue has decreased by 2.1% year-on-year and land sales revenue has dropped by 11.4% [2][11] - It suggests that the fiscal policy will likely require incremental debt to maintain its strength throughout the year, especially if there is no significant improvement in revenue [2][6] Group 1: Debt Issuance and Fiscal Policy - The government has accelerated debt issuance since the beginning of the year, with net financing expected to reach 13.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.2 trillion yuan compared to last year [5][12] - As of May 20, the known net financing of government debt reached 6.2 trillion yuan, achieving 44.9% of the annual target, compared to 22.5% during the same period last year [5][12] - The article indicates that if the revenue side does not improve significantly, the government may need to increase its debt issuance to maintain fiscal strength [6][13] Group 2: Non-Deficit Debt and Investment Focus - In the second quarter, non-deficit debt is expected to accelerate, reflecting a marginal shift in fiscal support towards investment [8][22] - As of May 20, the net financing of non-deficit debt reached 2 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 36.5%, indicating a focus on investment projects [22][23] - The article highlights that the acceleration of non-deficit debt issuance may signal increased fiscal support for infrastructure and other investment projects [23][28] Group 3: Special Refinancing Bonds and Local Government Debt - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has progressed rapidly, with a known progress rate of 77.8% as of May 20, indicating a focus on managing local government debt [28][29] - The article notes that local government hidden debts remain under strict control, with the central government expected to play a key role in increasing budgetary bonds and quasi-fiscal capital injections [29][31] - The emphasis is placed on the central government's commitment to not increasing hidden debts, reinforcing fiscal discipline [29][31] Group 4: Revenue and Expenditure Insights - In April, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with tax revenue turning positive, particularly in the equipment manufacturing and technology sectors [31][33] - The article mentions that the expenditure progress for January to April was the fastest since 2020, with a notable increase in infrastructure spending in April [44][50] - The government’s focus on accelerating special bond issuance and enhancing fiscal support for projects is expected to continue, with a projected increase in government fund income [50][56]

南非财政部长：除非在支出方面出现意外冲击，否则没有什么挑战，收入方面的下行风险更大。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月22日 政府债务周度观察 政府债将继续支撑 5 月财政支出 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 20 周（5/12-5/18）5982 亿，第 21 周 （5/19-5/25）3548 亿。截至第 20 周（5/12-5/18）累计 4.1 万亿，进 度 34.7%。 政府债净融资第 20 周（5/12-5/18）6723 亿，第 21 周（5/19-5/25）3843 亿。截至第 20 周（5/12-5/18）累计 5.8 万亿，超出去年同期 3.9 万亿。 从 4 月财政数据来看，虽然收入有所转暖，但政府债融资也对支出增速 的贡献较高，第二本账支出增速高达 45%。5 月至今政府债净融资已经 超过 1.4 万亿，预计将继续对财政支出形成较强支撑。 国债第 20 周（5/12-5/18）净融资 5012 亿，第 21 周（5/19-5/25）2417 亿。截至第 20 周（5/12-5/18）累计 2.4 万亿，进度 36.5%。 地方债净融资第 20 周（5/12-5/18）1711 亿，第 21 周（5/19-5/25）1426 亿。截至第 20 周（5/12-5/18）累计 ...

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first four months of the year was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] - In April, public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9% [1][2] - Non-tax revenue for the first four months was 15,060 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the growth rate slowed to 1.7% in April [3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for April turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, while the total tax revenue for January to April was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first quarter [2] - Major tax categories showed a decline in growth rates, with VAT, consumption tax, and corporate income tax experiencing significant drops [2] - Personal income tax saw a substantial rebound due to a low base from the previous year, rising from -58.5% to 9.0% [2] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure in April grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment spending (8.5%) and education spending (7.4%) [4] - Infrastructure spending showed a growth of 2.2%, with notable increases in urban community and transportation expenditures [4] - Overall, the acceleration in fiscal spending in April indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth amid external challenges [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while key areas of expenditure are being supported, the ongoing decline in cumulative fiscal revenue indicates underlying economic issues, particularly insufficient effective demand [5] - The focus of fiscal policy in the second quarter is expected to be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing large-scale new measures [5]

报告摘要 第一， 4 月狭义财政收支仍然分化，但趋势有所弥合，主要源自税收收入的改善。 4 月一般公共预算收入同比增速上行至 1.9% ，其中税收收入同比显著提升 4.1 个百分点至 1.9% ，为今年以来首次由负转正，与同期经济表现相吻合。不过今年前 4 个月税收累计同比为 -2.1% ，降幅较一季度缩窄但尚未转正；其中企业所得 税累计同比为 -3.1% ，低 PPI 是拖累因素之一。 广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 第二， 支出方面呈更加积极的特征，受普通国债发行前置和税收好转的带动，狭义财政支出增速进一步走高， 4 月当月同比 5.8% ， 1-4 月累计同比 4.6% ，已超 全年支出目标增速 4.4% ； 1-4 月狭义财政支出进度 31.5% ，为近年来仅次于 2019 年的次高水平。从 4 月当月主要带动项来看，有稳定微观主体的支出，比如社 保就业、教育等；也有主动形成投资、带动增长动能的支出，比如交通运输。 第三， 再广义财政收入端， 4 月政府性基金收入增速也是今年以来首次同比由负转正。从土地高频数据来看这一情况属于预期之中。 1- ...

报 告 正 文 土地市场边 际回 暖 。 广义财政来看，1-4月广义财政收入、支出增速分别回升至-1.3%、7.2%，单独看4月当 月的表现，4月广义财政收入和支出增速较上月分别回升4.4、2.8个百分点至2.7%、12.9%。收入端来看，税收 收入延续修复以及土地市场有所回暖带动了收入端的改善；支出端来看，专项债发行保持较快速度，叠加特别 国债开启发行的背景下，广义财政积极发力的态势延续。 财政加码空间仍存。 从4月经济和财政数据来看，外部冲击下，经济增长具备一定韧性，尤其是生产端和消费 端，外需虽有回落但仍处较高水平。往后看，若关税变化下出口不确定性加大，并向通胀、就业等传导，财政 收支平衡或面临挑战，年内财政加码的空间仍然存在。 财政收入增速延续回升。 1-4月，全国一般公共预算收入8.06万亿元，同比增长-0.4%，低于0.1%的目标增 速，4月当月全国财政收入增速继续回升至1.9%。分项来看，中央收入同比增速由负转正至1.6%，地方收 入同比增速回落至2.1%；税收收入增速较上月回升4.1个百分点，由负转正至1.9%，非税收入增速延续放 缓至1.7%。从进度来看，今年前4个月公共财政收入的完成进度为 ...

从财政收入看，1—4月全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%，降幅比一季度收窄0.7个百分点。分 中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入下降3.8%，降幅比一季度收窄1.9个百分点，其中4月份增长1.6%，今年 以来首月实现正增长；地方一般公共预算收入增长2.2%，增幅与一季度持平。 从收入来源看，1—4月全国税收收入65556亿元，同比下降2.1%，降幅比一季度收窄1.4个百分点，其中4月税 收收入同比增长1.9%，今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正；全国非税收入15060亿元，同比增长7.7%，主要是多 渠道盘活资产等带动。 广发证券宏观分析师吴棋滢指出，2025年一般公共预算收入目标同比增速仅有0.1%，全年实现收入目标难度 不大。但在结构上，目前财政收入增幅仍依赖于非税收入带动。 财政部5月20日公布的2025年1—4月财政收支数据显示，在国际环境更趋复杂严峻，外部冲击影响加大的背 景下，1—4月全国公共财政收入累计降幅继续收窄，公共财政支出进度达到2020年以来同期最快；4月全国 税收收入同比增长1.9%，为今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正。 校对： 刘榕枝 百万用户都在看 在主要税收收入项目中，1 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that in the first four months of this year, the national general public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% and completing 31.5% of the budget, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] Expenditure Analysis - The increase in expenditure is attributed to the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy by various levels of financial departments, which has intensified spending and optimized expenditure structure [1] - There is a notable focus on improving people's livelihoods, promoting consumption, and enhancing future economic momentum, with key areas of expenditure being well-supported [1]

东方金诚宏观研究 东方金诚宏观研究 一季度财政收入表现偏弱，财政支出力度大幅提升 —— 2025 年 3 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：财政部公布数据显示，2025 年 3 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.3%， 1-2 月为下降 1.6%；3 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 5.7%，1-2 月为增长 3.4%；1-3 月全国政府性基金收入累计同比下降 11.0%，1-2 月为下降 10.7%；1-3 月全国政府性基金 支出累计同比增长 11.1%，1-2 月为增长 1.2%。 主要观点：尽管 3 月当月财政收入增速有所改善，但一季度财政收入端整体表现仍偏 弱，其中，一般公共预算收入累计同比下降 1.1%，低于去年全年累计增速；一季度政府性 基金收入同比下降 11.0%，主要受国有土地出让金收入同比降幅扩大拖累，背后是土地市 场持续低迷。从支出端来看，一季度广义财政支出累计同比增长 10.1%，其中，一般公共 预算支出同比增长 4.2%，主要源于今年年初政府债券发行提速，充实了可用财政资金。同 时，今年一季度新增专项债发行量同比高增，加之土地出让收入安排的支出同比降幅收窄， 拉动政府性基金 ...

非税持续回落（ 5.9% ， 1-2 月 11% ） ，据财政部介绍， （一季度非税增幅）主要是部分上市中央金融企业分红入库、地方多渠道盘活资产等带动。 此外， 企 业所得税与非税去年以来首现"脱钩"，或显示地方财政压力阶段性缓释 （详见 《 2024 年财政数据的四个反常和启示》 ） ， 积极信号可继续观察。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 事项 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，1-2月同比-2.9%；3月广义财政支出同比10.1%，1-2月同比2.9%。 报告摘要 一、 收入端：单月增速转正，装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现 3 月，财政收入同比 0.3% （ 1-2 月 -1.6% ），一季度预算收入进度 27.4% ，低于过去三年同期平均水平 。分税收和非税收入看： 税收降幅收窄（ -2.2% ， 1-2 月 -3.9% ），装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现。 一季度， 制造业方面 ，装备制造业保持较高增幅，其中，铁路船舶航空 航天设备制造业、计算机通信设备制造业税收收入分别增长 32.4 ...