Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Finance and several departments have launched a comprehensive package of six fiscal and financial policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, with a focus on supporting private investment and consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Policies Supporting Private Investment - Four policies are designed to support private investment, including a loan interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises, a special guarantee plan for private investment, a risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds, and an updated loan interest subsidy policy for equipment renewal [1][2]. - The new loan interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises and the optimized equipment renewal loan interest subsidy can provide a 1.5 percentage point interest subsidy on the total loan amount, significantly expanding the supported areas and loan purposes [1]. Group 2: Policies Promoting Consumption - Two policies aimed at promoting consumption include a loan interest subsidy policy for service industry operators and a personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, which have been optimized to offer greater subsidy intensity, broader consumption areas, longer implementation periods, and wider institutional coverage [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas factors such as Trump's remarks and concerns about Japan's fiscal deterioration have led to a decline in major global indexes. Domestically, market enthusiasm has cooled under policy guidance, with a decrease in trading volume and index levels. Currently, investors can focus on the entry opportunities for IC [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The report presents charts showing the relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [6][8][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65 points, down 0.01%; the ChiNext Index fell 1.79%. Industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, real estate, and transportation led the gains, while communications, national defense and military industry, and computer industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes all closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 2.39% to 22954.32 points [1]. - The daily performance table of major domestic stock indexes shows the closing prices and daily changes on January 20, 2026, and January 19, 2026 [13]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the current - month contracts of IH and IC were at a premium. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2]. - The table of stock index futures trading volume and open interest shows the current values and changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts [15]. - The table of stock index futures basis shows the current values and changes of the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [38]. - The table of stock index futures inter - period spreads shows the current values and changes of inter - period spreads for different contract combinations of IF, IH, IC, and IM [43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a stabilizing force for growth and a driving engine for high-quality development, with a focus on implementing a comprehensive set of fiscal and financial policies to boost consumption and investment [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal and Financial Policies - The fiscal and financial policies aim to lower financing costs for residents and businesses, stimulate consumption, expand effective investment, and invigorate market vitality [1][2]. - The policies are summarized as having "one goal," "two focuses," "three principles," and "six policies," with a strong emphasis on linking these policies to bank credit activities to maximize their impact [1][2]. Group 2: Specific Policy Measures - Six key policies were introduced, with four aimed at supporting private investment and two focused on promoting consumption [2][3]. - The first policy is a loan interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises in sectors like new energy vehicles and medical equipment, providing a 1.5% subsidy for up to two years on loans capped at 50 million yuan [2]. - The second policy is a special guarantee plan for private enterprises, increasing the guarantee ratio from 20% to 40% for loans up to 20 million yuan [2]. - The third policy involves a risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds, with central government funds providing credit enhancement [2]. - The fourth policy optimizes equipment update loan subsidies, expanding the range of eligible sectors and increasing the subsidy to 1.5% for loans not exceeding two years [2]. Group 3: Consumer Support Policies - The fifth policy enhances loan interest subsidies for service industry operators, raising the loan cap from 1 million yuan to 10 million yuan, with a 1% subsidy for one year [3]. - The sixth policy optimizes personal consumption loan subsidies, allowing residents to receive a 1% subsidy on loans used for consumption, including credit card installment payments [3][7]. - The maximum subsidy for personal consumption has been increased from 500 yuan to 3,000 yuan, significantly enhancing purchasing power [7][8]. Group 4: Broader Impact and Future Outlook - The policies are designed to activate private investment and lower financing costs, addressing the challenges of high financing costs and difficulties in obtaining funds for private enterprises [5][6]. - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized, aiming for a coordinated approach to stabilize growth and promote long-term high-quality development [4]. - The policies are expected to create a favorable environment for consumption, with an extended implementation period until the end of 2026 and a broader range of participating financial institutions [8].

此外，今天还优化实施了服务业经营主体贷款贴息、个人消费贷款财政贴息、设备更新贷款财政贴息等政策。 财政部副部长 廖岷：激发民间投资是此次一揽子政策的"重头戏"。我们将继续加强与有关部门协同配合，通过创新宏观调控，激发微观主体活力，确 保"十五五"实现良好开局。 T53R 央视网消息：在国务院新闻办公室1月20日举行的新闻发布会上，财政部相关负责人表示，2026年，我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财政支 出盘子，确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。 为更大力度激发民间投资，促进居民消费，财政部等多部门1月20日推出财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策。其中，首次设立民间投资专项担保计划，通 过国家融资担保基金专设担保计划5000亿元，分两年实施，引导银行新增投放5000亿元中小微企业民间投资贷款。首次实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策，从今 年1月1日起，向中小微民营企业发放的符合条件的固定资产贷款，每年贴息1.5个百分点，最长贴息2年，单户贷款额度上限5000万元，单户最多可享受贴息 150万元，覆盖新能源汽车、工业母机等14个"重点产业链及上下游产业"、生产性服务业领域，以及农林牧渔相关领域。 C ...

2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.52%报 111.490 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 108.180 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 105.875 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.05%报 102.444 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 20 日以 ...

日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 报告类型 股指日评 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 宏观金融团队 1 月 20 日，万得全 A 放量下跌，开盘后快速下滑，随后震荡反弹，跌幅有所 收窄，收跌 0.58%，全市超 3000 支个股下跌；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中 证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.33%、0.17%、0.48%、1.00%。期货方面，IF、IH、IC、 IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.42%、0.07%、0.21%、0.80%（按收盘价计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | | ...

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货1月20日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 110.910 | 110.850 | 111.490 | 111.410 | 0.580 | 0.52 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on increasing total expenditure while optimizing the structure and effectiveness of spending to support high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and overall expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that overall spending "only increases" and key areas are "only strengthened" [1]. - The proactive fiscal policy in 2025 has played a significant role in achieving economic and social development goals, balancing current needs with long-term sustainability [1][2]. Group 2: Budget and Expenditure - The national general public budget revenue is expected to show a recovery growth trend in 2025, with overall stability in budget execution [1]. - The general public budget expenditure will maintain strong intensity to provide necessary financial support for economic and social development, with expectations of achieving a balance between revenue and expenditure for the year [1]. Group 3: Structural Optimization - The focus will be on optimizing the expenditure structure, ensuring funds are allocated to critical areas, breaking the "base + growth" spending pattern, and applying zero-based budgeting principles [2]. - The fiscal department aims to support employment, businesses, markets, and expectations through robust financial backing [2]. Group 4: Policies to Stimulate Investment and Consumption - A comprehensive set of policies will be implemented to stimulate domestic demand, including optimizing personal consumption loan interest subsidies and extending support for service industry loans [2][3]. - The policies targeting private investment are expected to significantly reduce financing costs and enhance profitability for enterprises, thereby invigorating private investment [3]. - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy will be extended to the end of 2026, with improvements such as including credit card installment payments and raising subsidy standards [3].

财政部等部门1月20日还发布财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策。其中，首次实施中小微企业贷款贴息政 策，覆盖新能源汽车、工业母机等14个"重点产业链及上下游产业"、生产性服务业领域，以及农林牧渔 相关领域。首次设立民间投资专项担保计划，通过国家融资担保基金专设担保计划5000亿元，分两年实 施。廖岷表示，几项政策同向发力将给企业带来直接利好。 廖岷：这次新设的中小微企业贷款贴息以及优化后的设备更新贷款贴息，都可以为企业提供贷款总额的 1.5个百分点贴息。在间接融资方面，设立了民间投资专项担保计划，这是一项新政策，提高了融资担 保额度、风险分担的比例和代偿上限，让银行敢贷、愿贷、多贷。 央广网北京1月21日消息（记者李思默）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，财政 部有关负责人1月20日表示，2026年，我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财政支出盘子。确保 总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。 财政部副部长廖岷：把更多的财政资金用在提振消费、"投资于人"、民生保障等方面，多渠道增加居民 收入。2026年将继续安排超长期特别国债，用于"两重"建设和"两新"工作。 2026年，财政部门将 ...

今日关注 申购提示：今日1只新股申购。 财政部：2026年财政总体支出力度"只增不减"。 财政部发布多项政策，提高个人消费贷贴息标准，实施民间投资专项担保计划。 国新办今日举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年工业和信息化发展成效。 4．财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，本次优化调整个人消费贷款贴息政策，将信 用卡账单分期业务纳入到了贴息范围，取消现有政策当中对一些消费领域的限制。新政策意味着 只要是消费贷款都可以享受贴息。 5．财政部综合司司长李先忠在国新办新闻发布会上表示，近期财政部、税务总局发布公告，明 确自2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品出口退税，并分两年取消电子产品出口退税。此次出口退税 政策调整，有利于促进资源高效利用，也有利于引导产业结构合理调整，综合整治"内卷式"无序 竞争，推动经济高质量发展。 6．财政部等部门发布关于延续实施养老、托育、家政等社区家庭服务业税费优惠政策的公告， 为社区提供养老、托育、家政等服务的机构，按照规定享受税费优惠政策。 7．上海期货交易所发布通知，自2026年1月22日（星期四）收盘结算时起，调整铜、黄金等期货 合约交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。 8．1月20日2 ...