上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）隔夜品种微跌，7天和14天品种上涨。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌0.40BP，报1.2580%；7天Shibor上 涨4.80BP，报1.4480%；14天Shibor上涨0.10BP，报1.5960%。 | | | | 2025-12-26 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | t | O/N | 1.2580 | 0.40 | | � | 1W | 1.4480 | 4.80 | | ↑ | 2W | 1.5960 | 0.10 | | f | 1M | 1.5840 | 0.00 | | t | 3M | 1.6000 | 0.00 | | ↑ | 6M | 1.6280 | 0.10 | | 个 | 9M | 1.6400 | 0.00 | | ↑ | 1Y | 1.6500 | 0.00 | 上海银行间同业拆放利率（12月26日） 银行间质押式回购市场方面，隔夜品种下跌，7D、14D品种上涨。具体看，DR001、R001加权平均利率分别下行0.3BP、1.1BP，报 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 177.1 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 88.8 billion yuan after 88.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight fluctuations, with the 7-day Shibor rising by 1.50 basis points to 1.4000%, while the overnight Shibor decreased by 0.50 basis points to 1.2620% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, the DR007 rate increased by over 10 basis points, while the R014 rate continued to rise in both volume and price [4] Group 2 - The overall funding situation in the market was balanced, with major banks lending out funds at rates between 1.50% and 1.52% for overnight deposits, and demand remained strong for cross-month rates [10] - On December 25, 72 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, totaling 71.77 billion yuan, with varying trading sentiments across different maturities [11] - The financial regulatory authority emphasized the importance of managing partnerships and has issued over 1,100 risk warnings and public statements to guide public awareness [13]

新华财经北京12月24日电（高二山）人民银行24日开展260亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，与前次持平；鉴于当日有468亿元7天期逆回购 到期，公开市场实现净回笼208亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）隔夜和7天品种下跌，14天品种上涨。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌0.50BP，报1.2670%；7天Shibor下跌1.40BP， 报1.3850%；14天Shibor上涨2.20BP，报1.5990%。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（12月24日） | 来源：全国银行间同业拆借中心 | | --- | 银行间质押式回购市场方面，非银间品种全线上涨，R014品种突破1.8%。具体看，DR001、R001加权平均利率分别下行0.7BP、上行0.3BP，报 1.2622%、1.3568%，成交额分别减少6亿元、增加852亿元；DR007、R007加权平均利率分别下行3.1BP、上行1.7BP，报1.38%、1.5198%，成交额 分别减少120亿元、1718亿元；DR014、R014加权平均利率分别上行2.0BP、5.2BP，报1.6202%、1.8047%，成交额分别减少5亿元、增加1540亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The interbank money market in 2025 is characterized by reasonable liquidity, a steady decline in interest rates, and continuous optimization of market structure under a moderately loose monetary policy environment, supported by effective central bank regulation [1][2][19]. Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank maintained a supportive monetary policy in 2025, utilizing various tools to ensure reasonable liquidity, including a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, leading to a decrease in the comprehensive financing cost [2][3]. - Structural monetary policy tools were employed to direct financial resources towards key sectors, with a total structural monetary policy tool balance reaching 3.9 trillion yuan by the end of September [2][3]. Market Operation Characteristics - The overall trend of money market interest rates showed a moderate decline, with the average DR001 and DR007 rates at 1.52% and 1.64% respectively by December 9, 2025, down 14 and 17 basis points from the previous year [4][5]. - The total transaction volume in the interbank money market reached 166.385 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in buyout repos and a decline in credit borrowing, indicating a structural shift in market behavior [6][7]. Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market - The net financing of interbank certificates of deposit turned negative for the first time in 2025, with a cumulative issuance of 31.9 trillion yuan but a net repayment of 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a contraction in net financing due to shortened issuance terms [7][8]. - The market showed a "long-short increase" trend, with the proportion of 1-year products decreasing while 3-month and 6-month products increased, indicating banks' need to control costs amid a loose monetary environment [8][9]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The liquidity in the money market remained stable and ample, supported by effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, with a net injection of 56.396 billion yuan through open market operations [12][13]. - Weak demand for financing from the real economy, influenced by external uncertainties and local government debt pressures, led to a gradual decline in money market interest rates [14][15]. Future Outlook for 2026 - The economic outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, with expectations of continued stable growth supported by coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts and liquidity maintenance [19][20][21]. - The central bank is expected to implement a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 25 to 50 basis points in 2026, with a further moderate decline in interest rates anticipated to reduce social financing costs [21].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 593 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan from the open market due to 1,353 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. Group 1: Market Rates - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) remained unchanged at 1.2720%, while the 7-day Shibor decreased by 1.80 basis points to 1.3990%, and the 14-day Shibor fell by 3.90 basis points to 1.5770% [1][2]. - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates saw slight declines, with the DR001 and R001 weighted average rates decreasing by 0.1 basis points and remaining stable at 1.2691% and 1.3542%, respectively [4]. - The DR007 and R007 weighted average rates fell by 2.3 basis points and 0.4 basis points, settling at 1.4105% and 1.5028%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The overall funding environment on December 23 was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight rates for deposits ranging from 1.46% to 1.48% and 7-day rates around 1.50% [9]. - A total of 86 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 951.6 billion yuan, indicating active trading in the secondary market [10]. - The yield on 1-month government bonds closed at 1.62%, up by 0.5 basis points from the previous trading day, while the 3-month and 6-month government bonds remained stable [10]. Group 3: Upcoming Events - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China are scheduled to conduct a tender for 600 billion yuan of central treasury cash management deposits on December 26, with a maturity of 14 days [12]. - Hangzhou Bank announced plans to issue up to 400 billion yuan of non-capital supplementary financial bonds, with a maturity of no more than 10 years [12].

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year treasury bonds in major economies: US 4.165%, UK 4.535%, France 3.611%, Germany 2.897%, Italy 3.598%, Spain 3.332%, Switzerland 0.307%, Greece 3.482%, Japan 2.077%, Brazil 6.184%, China 1.835%, Australia 4.794%, New Zealand 4.475% [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year treasury bonds in major economies: US 3.508%, UK 3.736%, Germany 2.147%, Japan 1.113%, Italy 2.262%, China (1Y yield) 1.356%, Australia 4.075% [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.592, South Africa zar 16.711, South Korean won 1480.700, Thai baht 31.180, Malaysian ringgit 4.078. The latest on - shore RMB is 7.037, offshore RMB is 7.031, RMB central parity is 7.057, and RMB 12 - month NDF is 6.902 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6878.490, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48362.680, Nasdaq 23428.830, Mexican stock index 64778.180, UK stock index 9865.970, French CAC 8121.070, German DAX 24283.970, Spanish stock index 17158.000, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 50402.390, Hang Seng Index 25801.770, Shanghai Composite Index 3917.364, Taiwan stock index 28149.640, South Korean stock index 4105.930, Indian stock index 8645.844, Thai stock index 1269.680, Malaysian stock index 1671.290, Australian stock index 9000.726, emerging - economy stock index 1383.830 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 264.992, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 409.720 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price is 3917.36 with a 0.69% increase, CSI 300 closing price is 4611.62 with a 0.95% increase, SSE 50 closing price is 3020.23 with a 0.53% increase, ChiNext closing price is 3191.98 with a 2.23% increase, and CSI 500 closing price is 7255.66 with a 1.20% increase [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.05 with a 0.08环比 change, SSE 50 is 11.76 with a 0.06环比 change, CSI 500 is 32.95 with a 0.37环比 change, S&P 500 is 27.48 with a 0.18环比 change, and German DAX is 18.79 with a - 0.01环比 change [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.53 with a - 0.04环比 change, German DAX is 2.42 with a - 0.01环比 change [4] - Fund flow: The latest value of A - share fund flow is 58.51, main - board is - 112.17, ChiNext is 108.59, and CSI 300 is 222.28. The 5 - day average values are - 66.43 for A - shares, - 50.91 for the main board, - 1.48 for ChiNext, and 131.41 for CSI 300 [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: The latest transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 18619.40 with a 1360.25环比 change, CSI 300 is 4482.41 with a 766.64环比 change, SSE 50 is 1067.35 with a 117.95环比 change, small - and - medium - sized board is 3801.25 with a 289.02环比 change, and ChiNext is 4826.42 with a 443.70环比 change [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis is - 46.82 with a - 1.02% spread, IH basis is - 1.83 with a - 0.06% spread, IC basis is - 132.46 with a - 1.83% spread [5] - Treasury futures: T2303 closing price is 107.98 with a - 0.16% change, TF2303 closing price is 105.86 with a - 0.10% change, T2306 closing price is 108.01 with a - 0.16% change, TF2306 closing price is 105.86 with a - 0.10% change [5] - Fund rates: R001 is 1.3547% with a - 16.00 BP daily change, R007 is 1.5063% with a 0.00 BP daily change, SHIBOR - 3M is 1.6010% with a 0.00 BP daily change [5]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 673 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net withdrawal of 636 billion yuan due to 1,309 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The overnight and 7-day Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) slightly decreased, while the 14-day Shibor increased. Specifically, the overnight Shibor fell by 0.13 basis points to 1.2720%, and the 7-day Shibor dropped by 1.41 basis points to 1.4170%, while the 14-day Shibor rose by 0.82 basis points to 1.6160% [1] - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates remained stable, with the R014 rate rising over 13 basis points to exceed 1.75%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 remained unchanged and increased by 0.3 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates decreased by 0.8 basis points [4] Group 2 - The overall funding situation was balanced, with major banks lending out funds. The overnight opening rate was around 1.48%, with rates for various maturities showing slight fluctuations. The lowest overnight rate at the close was 1.38% [8] - On December 22, 97 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, totaling 1,103.6 billion yuan. The trading sentiment for primary certificates was generally moderate, while secondary certificates showed active trading with slight yield fluctuations [9] - The People's Bank of China maintained the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, for the seventh consecutive month [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the performance of global asset markets, including the latest yields of 10 - year and 2 - year government bonds in major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, and the latest values of major economies' stock indices and credit bond indices. It also provides stock index futures trading data such as closing prices, price changes, valuations, risk premiums, and fund flows. Additionally, it includes trading data for treasury bond futures, money market interest rates, and trading volume and price changes of the stock market [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: The latest 10 - year government bond yields are 4.148% in the US, 4.523% in the UK, 3.611% in France, etc.; 2 - year government bond yields are 3.484% in the US, 3.746% in the UK, etc. [3] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.543, to South African rand is 16.776, etc. The on - shore RMB exchange rate is 7.041, the off - shore RMB is 7.034, etc. [3] - **Stock Indices**: The latest values of major stock indices are 6834.500 for the S&P 500, 48134.890 for the Dow Jones Industrial Index, etc. [3] - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values of credit bond indices are 3534.890 for the US investment - grade credit bond index, 265.100 for the euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3890.45, 4568.18, 3004.34, 3122.24, and 7169.55 respectively, with price changes of 0.36%, 0.34%, 0.19%, 0.49%, and 0.97% respectively. [4] - **Valuation**: The PE(TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are 13.97, 11.70, 32.58, 27.30, and 18.80 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.01, - 0.02, 0.29, 0.24, and 0.07 respectively. [4] - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 is - 0.49 with a环比 change of - 0.06, and that of the German DAX is 2.43 with a环比 change of - 0.06. [4] - **Fund Flows**: The latest fund flow values for A - shares, the main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are 369.45, 489.44, N/A, - 38.03, and 163.95 respectively, and the 5 - day average values are - 208.57, - 96.34, N/A, - 61.15, and 54.52 respectively. [4] Other Trading Data - **Stock Market Transaction Amount**: The latest transaction amounts of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are 17259.15, 3715.77, 949.40, 3512.23, and 4382.72 respectively, with环比 changes of 704.32, - 105.25, 122.23, 197.55, and - 61.24 respectively. [5] - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC are - 41.18, 2.06, and - 114.15 respectively, with basis spreads of - 0.90%, 0.07%, and - 1.59% respectively. [5] - **Treasury Bond Futures Trading**: The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are 108.15, 105.97, 108.18, and 105.97 respectively, with price changes of 0.13%, 0.11%, 0.12%, and 0.10% respectively. [5] - **Money Market Interest Rates**: The interest rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3517%, 1.5148%, and 1.6022% respectively, with daily changes of - 17.00BP, - 1.00BP, and 0.00BP respectively. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The seasonal increase in cross - year funding demand is expected to drive up market interest rates in December [4][6][9][15][69] 3. Summary of Each Section Overseas Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and short - term US Treasury yields declined. The 3 - month US Treasury yield dropped to around 3.6%, and since November, the US federal funds rate and SOFR rate have remained stable [10] - The benchmark interest rates of Japan, the Eurozone, and the US are 0.5%, 2.15%, and 3.50 - 3.75% respectively [12] Domestic Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking Price Indicator Overview - In November, the central bank maintained a balanced and slightly loose funding environment. The average repurchase rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets fluctuated slightly. R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly averages changed by 4BP, 0BP, 0BP, and - 1BP respectively [4][20] - Most short - term bond yields declined. The 1 - year Treasury bond, 1 - year CDB bond, 1 - year AAA commercial paper, 1 - year AA commercial paper, 1 - year AA - commercial paper, 1 - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit, and 1 - year AA+ inter - bank certificate of deposit changed by - 2BP, - 1BP, - 2BP, - 7BP, - 5BP, - 3BP, and - 2BP respectively [20] - In November, the average DR001 and DR007 increased slightly, with the 1 - day and 7 - day spreads changing by 1BP and - 1BP compared to the previous month [26] - The average exchange repurchase rates mostly declined. The 1 - day and 7 - day spreads between inter - bank and exchange rates changed by - 4BP and - 1BP compared to the previous month [31] - The average inter - bank certificate of deposit rates declined slightly. The spread between the 1 - year high - grade inter - bank certificate of deposit rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate widened slightly [37] - The balance of Yu'E Bao's 7 - day annualized return rate was 1.02%, and the average return of the top ten money funds continued to decline [47] Quantity Indicator Overview - In November, the overnight trading volume and proportion in the exchange market decreased compared to the previous month, while those in the inter - bank market increased. The average daily trading volume of R001 in the inter - bank market was 7.45 trillion, accounting for 88.5%, and that of GC001 in the exchange market was 2.00 trillion, accounting for 87.5% [51] - In November, M0 increased seasonally, and the excess deposit reserve ratio declined slightly. The central bank made a net investment through open - market operations, and the estimated excess deposit reserve ratio in November was 1.1% [55] - The year - on - year monthly average of the bond balance to be repurchased in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased. The year - on - year increase in the inter - bank bond balance to be repurchased was 0.4%, and that in the exchange market was 2% [59] - The volatility index of repurchase rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased compared to the previous month [64] Funding Outlook Five - Channel Forecast - M0: In November, M0 increased seasonally by 189.1 billion, and it is estimated to increase by 350 billion in December [71] - Required deposit reserves: In November, RMB deposits of financial institutions increased seasonally by 1.41 trillion, less than the same period last year. It is expected that deposits will decrease by 1 trillion in December, resulting in a decrease of 62 billion in required deposit reserves [75] - Fiscal deposits: In November, fiscal deposits decreased by 46.6 billion. It is expected that fiscal deposits will decrease by 600 billion in December [78] - Foreign exchange funds: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. It is expected that foreign exchange funds will decrease by 50 billion in December [83] - Open - market operations: The central bank is expected to continue net investment to maintain a stable funding environment. It is estimated that the excess deposit reserve ratio in December will be 1.6% [91] Main Conclusion - The seasonal demand for year - end funds is expected to drive up market interest rates in December. The central bank has carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations, the economic work conference has confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, and the large maturity volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit in December will cause seasonal pressure on the funding side [98]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas currency market: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and short - term US Treasury yields declined [4][10]. - Domestic currency market in November: Repo rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets had small fluctuations, with R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly averages changing by 4BP, 0BP, 0BP, and - 1BP respectively; most 1 - year short - bond yields declined; exchange overnight trading volume and proportion decreased, while inter - bank trading volume and proportion increased; the year - on - year monthly average of bond balances to be repurchased in both markets increased; estimated excess deposit reserve ratios for November and December were 1.1% and 1.6% respectively [4]. - Outlook for December: Seasonal increase in year - end fund demand is expected to drive up market interest rates [4][6][9][15][69]. Summary by Directory Overseas Key Currency Market Indicator Changes Tracking - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, and the 3 - month US Treasury yield dropped to around 3.6%. Since November, the US federal funds rate and SOFR rate have remained stable [10]. Domestic Key Currency Market Indicator Changes Tracking Price Indicators - The central bank maintained a balanced and loose fund environment in November. Repo rate averages in the inter - bank and exchange markets had small fluctuations. R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly averages changed by 4BP, 0BP, 0BP, and - 1BP respectively, reaching 1.43%, 1.42%, 1.50%, and 1.50%. Most 1 - year short - bond yields declined [20]. - In the inter - bank market, the R001 monthly average rose, and the R007 fluctuation range narrowed. The money market weighted average rate fluctuated around the 7 - day reverse repo rate [21]. - DR001 and DR007 monthly averages rose slightly, with 1 - day and 7 - day spreads changing by 1BP and - 1BP respectively [26]. - Exchange repo rate averages mostly declined, and the 1 - day and 7 - day spreads between inter - bank and exchange rates changed by - 4BP and - 1BP respectively [31]. - The 1 - year high - grade inter - bank certificate of deposit (ICD) rate dropped by 3BP, and the low - grade ICD rate dropped by 2BP. The spread between the 1 - year high - grade ICD rate and the 7 - day reverse repo rate widened slightly [37]. - Most 1 - year short - bond interest rate monthly averages declined, and the spread between the 1 - year AAA short - term financing bill and Treasury bond interest rates remained unchanged [42]. - The Yu'E Bao yield was 1.02% in November, and the average return of the top ten money funds continued to decline. The 7 - day average annualized yields of Yu'E Bao and the top ten money funds changed by - 3BP and - 1BP respectively [47]. Quantity Indicators - In November, the exchange overnight trading volume and proportion decreased, while the inter - bank trading volume and proportion increased. The average daily trading volume of R001 in the inter - bank market was 7.45 trillion, accounting for 88.5%, and the trading volume and proportion of GC001 in the exchange market were 2.00 trillion and 87.5% respectively [51]. - M0 increased seasonally in November, and the excess deposit reserve ratio declined slightly. After comprehensive consideration of five channels, the estimated excess deposit reserve ratio for November was 1.1% [55]. - The year - on - year monthly average of bond balances to be repurchased in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased. The inter - bank and exchange repo rate volatility indices rose [59][64]. Fund Outlook Five - Channel Forecast - M0: It increased by 189.1 billion in November, and is expected to increase by 350 billion in December [71]. - Required deposit reserves: Financial institution RMB deposits increased seasonally by 1.41 trillion in November, less than the same period last year. With the Spring Festival in February next year, deposits are expected to decrease by 1 trillion in December, leading to a 62 - billion decrease in required deposit reserves [75]. - Fiscal deposits: Fiscal deposits decreased by 46.6 billion in November due to increased year - end government spending and large net government bond financing. They are expected to decrease by 60 billion in December [78]. - Foreign exchange funds: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, causing the RMB to appreciate against the US dollar. Foreign exchange funds are expected to decrease by 5 billion in December [83]. - Open market operations: The central bank maintained a balanced and loose fund environment in November through open market operations,买断式逆回购, and Treasury bond trading. As of now in December, it has conducted 1.6 trillion in买断式逆回购 operations, achieving a net injection of 200 billion, and is expected to have a net injection of 50 billion for the whole month. After comprehensive consideration of the five - channel changes, the estimated excess deposit reserve ratio for December is 1.6% [91]. Main Conclusion - Due to the seasonal increase in year - end fund demand, market interest rates are expected to rise in December. The central bank has continued to increase the volume of reverse repo operations. The economic work conference in December confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy for next year. With a large amount of ICDs maturing in December and seasonal behavior of institutions at the end of the year, there is seasonal pressure on the fund market [98].