| 宏观偏暖商品普涨,双焦供需改善领涨 | | | | | 2026/01/07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员: | 余典 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | 钟宏 | | 从业资格号: F03100815 | 从业资格号:F03122523 | 从业资格号:F03099559 | | 从业资格号:F03144159 | 从业资格号:F03118246 | | 投资咨询号:Z0020955 | 投资咨询号: Z0019832 | | 投资咨询号: Z0021807 | 按贫容间号: Z0022199 | 妆货公馆号: Z0022727 | | 昨日夜盘起,商品市场情绪高涨、各品种几乎全线飘红,其中焦煤多个合约盘中触及涨停,焦炭主力合约盘中涨超7%,领涨商 | | | | | | | 品期货。我们认为双焦的大幅上涨有以下两个原因。 | | | | | | | 其一,2026年中国人民银行工作会议于1月5日-6日召开. 会议内容使得市场宏观预期回暖,带动整体商品市场情绪升温。会议 | | | | | | | 强调,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,继续实施适度 ...

沪镍产业日报 2026-01-07 求端，不锈钢成本镍铁下跌，钢厂利润改善，预计排产量高位；新能源汽车产销继续爬升，三元电池贡献 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 小幅需求增量。国内镍库存增长趋势，市场逢回调采买为主，现货升水高位；海外LME库存增长放缓。技 术面，持仓增加价格上涨，多头氛围较强。观点参考：预计短线沪镍强势运行，关注MA5支撑。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 147720 | 7920 02-03月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -530 | -3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for purchasing domestic ores intensifies, and both domestic and foreign processing fees decline significantly. The profits of domestic smelters shrink, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. However, the price of LME zinc has recently corrected, the SHFE - LME ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while the automotive and other sectors have some bright spots due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fluctuated and adjusted, with flat trading volume and on - demand purchases. The spot premium is high and stable, and domestic inventories continue to decline. The increase in LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. [3] - Technically, the position volume decreases while the price adjusts. The bullish sentiment is strong, but there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that SHFE zinc will adjust strongly, and attention should be paid to the 24,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton adjustment range. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 24,330 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,251 US dollars/ton, up 56 US dollars/ton. The total position of SHFE zinc is 225,559 lots, down 4,684 lots. [3] - The net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 5,722 lots, down 1,132 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. [3] - The SHFE inventory is 69,793 tons, down 3,170 tons (weekly). The LME inventory is 105,775 tons, down 75 tons. [3] b. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,300 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,190 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton. [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 30 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 36.67 US dollars/ton, down 0.37 US dollars/ton. [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,140 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] c. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons (monthly), down 14,700 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons (monthly), down 27,600 tons. [3] - The global zinc mine production value of ILZSG is 1.0666 million tons (monthly), down 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons (monthly), up 40,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons (monthly), down 164,500 tons. [3] d. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons (monthly), down 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons (monthly), up 6,040.84 tons. [3] - The social zinc inventory is 113,900 tons (weekly), up 5,000 tons. [3] e. Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons (monthly), up 20,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons (monthly), up 140,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 534.567 million square meters (monthly), up 43.9531 million square meters. The completed housing area is 348.61 million square meters (monthly), up 37.3212 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles (monthly), up 240,000 vehicles. The air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units (monthly), down 3.8908 million units. [3] f. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 22.56% (daily), up 2.84 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 22.56% (daily), up 2.84 percentage points. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 19.26% (daily), up 1.97 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.39% (daily), up 0.58 percentage points. [3] g. Industry News - The People's Bank of China clarified its key work in 2026: increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts, and flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. [3] - The US Supreme Court has set January 9 (Friday) as the opinion release day, which means the court may rule on the legality of the US President Trump's global tariff policy on that day. [3] - Fed officials have sent different signals on the future interest - rate path. Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that the policy is in a "delicate balance" between dealing with rising inflation and unemployment, and interest rates have reached a neutral level. Fed Governor Milan said that the data supports further interest - rate cuts, with a possible cut of more than 100 basis points this year. [3]

2026年中国人民银行工作会议近日召开，会议释放了一系列政策信号。中国央行表示，2026年继续实施 适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效。 本次会议重申"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，加之中国央行致力于构建科学稳健的货币政策体系，分 析人士认为，这都意味着2026年货币政策不会大放大收。 在东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青看来，2026年中国央行或主要通过下调政策利率、结构性货币政策工具 利率和个人住房公积金贷款利率，来引导企业和居民贷款利率下行。 (责任编辑：朱赫) 这意味着2026年居民房贷利率、消费贷利率和经营贷利率都有下调空间，政府和企业债券融资成本也会 跟进下调。王青预计，2026年中国央行或将降息两次，降息幅度在20至30个基点。 在数量型货币政策方面，2026年中国央行或将主要依靠中期借贷便利(MLF)和买断式逆回购向市场注入 中期流动性，同时结合国债买卖和降准向市场注入长期流动性。"当前数量型宽松政策工具丰富，我们 判断2026年央行可能降准1至2次，幅度为0.5至1个百分点。"王青说。 围绕货币政策，会议作出一系列部署：把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2026, domestic policies will focus on balancing "counter-cyclical" and "cross-cyclical" adjustments, with resources concentrated on expanding domestic demand and cultivating new productive forces, presenting a "fiscal-led, monetary-assisted" pattern [2][8][58] - The overall demand for steel is expected to remain basically flat, with manufacturing demand having resilience but a high-base slowdown in growth, construction demand continuing to decline but at a slower pace, and indirect exports performing better than direct exports with a high-base slowdown in growth [2][58] - The steel supply capacity cycle shows signs of peaking, but due to insufficient demand, "anti-involution" efforts need to be further strengthened. The steel product structure will continue to optimize, alleviating the contradiction of total overcapacity, and the comprehensive profits of steel mills will continue to improve. However, before the demand turns around, the production mode based on demand will be maintained to seek a weak balance [2][58] - In 2026, the steel supply and demand will still be relatively loose, with limited elasticity on the supply side under production control, continuous cost and inventory pressure, and steel prices are likely to continue to oscillate at the bottom. It is estimated that the main operating range of rebar in 2026 will be between 2,700 - 3,350 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coils will be between 2,850 - 3,500 yuan/ton [2][58] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of Steel Trends in 2025 - The steel price trend in 2025 was volatile, with the overall price center of gravity moving downward. From January to June, domestic demand was weak, the overseas trade environment deteriorated, and steel prices and furnace materials declined together. From June to July, steel prices gradually stabilized and rebounded rapidly under multiple factors. From August to October, the "high price, low demand" contradiction was prominent, and steel prices gradually declined. From October to the present, steel prices showed an oscillating and weak trend [5][6] Chapter 2: Outlook for the Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **2.1 The First Year of the 15th Five-Year Plan: Stabilize Growth and Expand Domestic Demand**: In 2026, economic policies will emphasize strategic focus and precise efforts, with policies focusing on expanding domestic demand and cultivating new productive forces. Monetary policy operations may be more cautious, balancing the relationship between reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and exchange rate stability [8] - **2.2 Policy Aspect: Fiscal Policy as the Mainstay and Monetary Policy as a Supplement**: Fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive" with more precise focus, with a projected deficit rate of 4% and a deficit scale of 5.9 trillion yuan, and special bond quotas of 4.5 - 5 trillion yuan. Monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" tone but be more cautious in operation, with at least one reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expected in 2026, and the focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and green fields [9][10] - **2.3 The Possibility of Spillover Risks in the Real Estate Market Has Significantly Decreased**: Policy priorities may have shifted, and the risk positioning of the real estate market may have changed from "key resolution" to "continuous prevention and control." Strong incremental policies are unlikely to be introduced, and the implementation of supportive policies will depend on the overall economic situation [17] - **2.4 "Anti-Involution" Policies May Enter the Implementation Stage**: It is expected that relevant policies will enter the implementation stage in 2026, but the public attention may decrease, and policies will have priorities and be implemented in different industries at different times [18] Chapter 3: Weak Domestic Demand, Strong Plates and Weak Long Products - **3.1 The Decline in the Real Estate Sector Narrowed but It Remained a Drag**: In 2025, real estate policies focused on risk prevention and market stabilization. From January to November, real estate investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area decreased year-on-year. In 2026, the decline in major real estate indicators is expected to narrow, but steel demand in the real estate industry will continue to decline [22][23] - **3.2 Policies Will Continue to Provide Support, and Infrastructure Investment Is Expected to Recover**: In 2025, infrastructure investment focused on structural optimization and strategic security, but overall performance was lower than expected. In 2026, infrastructure will continue to play a supporting role, with an expected investment growth rate of about 5%, and steel demand will be basically the same as in 2025 [27][28] - **3.3 Stable Growth in the Manufacturing Industry Supports Steel Demand**: In 2025, the manufacturing industry showed better performance than the construction industry, with the production index rising above the boom-bust line. The automobile industry had high production and sales, and the mechanical industry was stable. In 2026, with the continuation of "two new" policies, the manufacturing industry will still have resilience, and steel demand is expected to increase by about 5% [30][34] - **3.4 Exports Will Remain at a High Level but the Growth Rate Is Expected to Slow Down**: In 2025, China's steel exports reached a new high, while imports continued to decline. In 2026, due to intensified trade frictions and the recovery of overseas supply, the export growth rate is expected to slow down, but overall exports will remain at a high level [39][40] Chapter 4: Continued Promotion of "Anti-Involution" and Continuous Optimization of the Supply Structure - **4.1 Loose Raw Material Supply with Expected Average Price Decline**: In 2026, the supply of iron ore is expected to increase slightly, and the price is expected to face downward pressure. The supply of coking coal is expected to increase slightly, and the price is expected to remain in an oscillating range [44][48] - **4.2 "Anti-Involution" Needs to Be Further Strengthened to Promote Industrial Structure Optimization**: The steel mill capacity investment cycle shows signs of peaking. In 2026, the net increase in blast furnace capacity is 191 tons, the net decrease in converter capacity is 131 tons, and the net increase in electric furnace capacity is 451 tons. "Anti-involution" policies need to be further strengthened to promote the healthy development of the industrial structure [52] - **4.3 Steel Mill Profits Have Improved but Will Remain in a Slight Profit State**: In 2025, the profitability of the steel industry was high in the first half and low in the second half, and it turned into a loss in the fourth quarter. In 2026, steel mills are expected to maintain a slight profit state, with demand under pressure and profit prospects not optimistic [55] Chapter 5: Outlook for the Steel Price Trend in 2026 - In 2026, steel supply and demand will remain relatively loose, with limited supply-side elasticity under production control, continuous cost and inventory pressure, and steel prices are likely to continue to oscillate at the bottom. It is estimated that the main operating range of rebar will be between 2,700 - 3,350 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coils will be between 2,850 - 3,500 yuan/ton [58]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market remains in a loose state, with the bond market under pressure, while the convertible bond market follows the equity market with significant increases in trading volume and prices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Domestic News - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and financial market stability during the 2026 work conference [2]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange aims to enhance the foreign exchange management system to better balance development and security, ensuring a stable environment for the economy [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce announces a ban on the export of dual-use items to Japan for military purposes, indicating a tightening of trade relations [3]. Group 2: International News - Richmond Fed President Barkin highlights the need for careful adjustments in monetary policy, while Fed Governor Milan suggests that data trends may support further interest rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points this year [4]. - The U.S. bond market sees a general increase in yields, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rising to 3.47% and 4.18%, respectively [17]. - Major European economies experience a decline in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield falling to 2.85% [20]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bond market continues to weaken, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.8830%, reflecting market pressures [10]. - The convertible bond market sees a significant increase in trading volume, with major indices rising by 1.35% to 1.45%, and a total trading volume of 959.68 billion yuan [15]. - The equity market shows strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, contributing to the positive sentiment in the convertible bond market [15]. Group 4: Credit Events - Times Holdings announces three new overdue debts totaling approximately 1.287 billion yuan, indicating financial distress [13]. - Sunac China resumes trading of certain bonds after completing debt-to-equity swap arrangements, reflecting ongoing restructuring efforts [13]. - Jinan Zhangqiao Holdings faces an investigation by the Securities Regulatory Commission for alleged information disclosure violations, highlighting regulatory scrutiny in the sector [13].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic stability and growth in 2026, following a year of effective monetary measures in 2025 that boosted market confidence and facilitated economic recovery [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Effectiveness - The steady recovery of the real economy in 2025 was significantly supported by proactive monetary policy measures, which included a series of targeted policies to address challenges such as supply-demand imbalances [2][3]. - The monetary policy in 2025 was characterized by rapid total growth, with tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions maintaining ample liquidity [2][4]. - The overall financing cost for society decreased to historically low levels, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at approximately 3.1%, down about 30 basis points year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Adjustments - The PBOC increased the quota for re-lending aimed at technological innovation and consumption, with 300 billion yuan allocated for tech innovation and 500 billion yuan for consumption and elderly care [3]. - By the end of November 2025, the balance of various loans in renminbi reached 271 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in loans to small and micro enterprises and the manufacturing sector [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments in 2026, ensuring that monetary supply aligns with economic growth and price stability targets [5][6]. - The proportion of financing methods outside traditional loans exceeded 50% in 2025, indicating a shift towards a more diversified financing structure that aligns with high-quality development goals [6]. - The PBOC aims to improve transparency in loan costs, helping businesses understand their financing expenses better, which is expected to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate demand [7].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy shows a mixed performance in various indicators, with GDP growth slightly slowing, manufacturing PMI improving, and inflation showing positive changes. The government continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote economic growth, stabilize prices, and prevent financial risks. The commodity market has different trends, with precious metals and base metals rising, while energy and some agricultural products falling. The stock market has positive momentum, and the bond market is under pressure [1][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% but higher than the same period last year's 4.6%. Manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, up from the previous month's 49.8%. Non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, with a slight increase from the previous month but a decline from the same period last year. Social financing in November 2025 was 24888 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates all decreased compared to the previous month. New RMB loans in November 2025 were 3900 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous month. CPI in November 2025 was 0.7% year - on - year, turning positive from the previous month's - 0.4%. PPI was - 2.2% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous month. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - to - date in November 2025, and social consumption increased by 4.0%. Exports in November 2025 increased by 5.90% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.90% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The People's Bank of China plans to use various monetary policy tools in 2026, strengthen financial market supervision, and crack down on illegal activities. China bans the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and related purposes [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - On January 6, 2026, international precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.22% to $4505.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 5.95% to $81.22 per ounce. London base metals also rose across the board, with LME nickel up 8.39% to $18430.0 per ton, LME tin up 4.79% to $44500.0 per ton, etc. [3]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - On January 6, 2026, the main contract of US crude oil fell 2.31% to $56.97 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 1.96% to $60.55 per barrel [4]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - On January 6, 2026, the Bloomberg Grains Sub - index fell 0.30%. CBOT corn, wheat, and soybeans futures all declined, while ICE raw sugar, white sugar, and some coffee futures rose, and New York and London cocoa futures fell [5][6]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 6, 2026, the central bank conducted 162 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operation rate of 1.40%. With 3125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 2963 billion yuan [7]. 3.3.2 Key News - The 2026 PBOC Work Conference emphasizes continuing a moderately loose monetary policy, promoting economic growth and price recovery, and preventing financial risks. The 2026 National Foreign Exchange Administration Work Conference focuses on reform and opening - up, risk prevention, and ensuring the safety of foreign exchange reserves. China bans dual - use item exports to Japan for military purposes. The emotional consumption market in China is growing rapidly. Four departments encourage employee cultural and sports consumption. The inbound tourism market had a good start during the New Year's Day holiday. Shanghai encourages foreign - invested enterprises to reinvest in China. Henan introduces measures to boost the economy in Q1 2026. China's automobile production and sales are expected to reach a new high in 2025, with new energy vehicles leading the market. Regulators survey wealth management companies to promote long - term funds entering the A - share market. Many small and medium - sized banks have adjusted deposit interest rates. China Gas Holdings starts issuing panda bonds. Trump's team is discussing ways to acquire Greenland. There are bond - related events such as new debt defaults and credit rating changes [8][9][10]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market in China is under pressure, with rising yields of interest - rate bonds and falling bond futures. The stock market's strength affects bond market sentiment. In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rise and some fall. The convertible bond index rises. Money market rates show different trends, and bond issuance yields are announced. US bond yields rise, while European bond yields fall [16][17][20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Update - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9813 on January 6, 2026, with a 7 - point decline. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 57 points. The US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies showed different trends [22]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment points out that Jiangsu's industrial assets are large, with significant north - south differences. Western Securities believes that the new regulations on public fund sales are beneficial to the bond market in January 2026. CITIC Securities says that China's bond market opening - up will promote foreign investment in the long - run, despite short - term fluctuations [23][24]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On January 7, 2026, 153 bonds will be listed, 99 bonds will be issued, 106 bonds will require payment, and 96 bonds will pay principal and interest [25]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The Hong Kong stock market rose, with technology stocks, insurance, and brokerage stocks performing well. Southbound capital had net purchases. Regulators survey wealth management companies to promote long - term funds entering A - share market. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges released the latest issuance and listing review dynamics. The number of new A - share accounts in 2025 increased significantly [26][27].

报告日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 公募基金销售新规正式落地 美军突袭加拉加斯，抓捕马杜罗夫妇并押往美国，美方宣布将暂时"管理"委内 瑞拉并深度介入石油产业。美国当周初请失业金低于预期，强化经济韧性，削弱 1 月降息概率，推升长端收益率，特朗普明确将于 1 月择时公布鲍威尔继任人选， 称已有心仪人选且未改变。国内 2 月官方制造业 PMI 为 50.1%，升至扩张区间， 经济景气水平总体回升。公募基金销售新规正式落地，放宽了债基赎回费，个人 持有债基超过 7 日、机构持有债基超过 30 日可免收赎回费，缓解市场对债基流 动性、交易属性弱化的担忧。 重点品种：原油、国债 原油： 节日期间油价小幅震荡回落。但收盘期间，美国入侵委内瑞拉对其发动 空袭，同时宣称已经抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并将其带离委内瑞拉。短期委内 瑞拉将陷入内乱，袭击发生前其石油出口已经受到美国封锁压制，袭击发生后在 美国代理人上台前预计将持续受到更大影响。短期油价受此影响偏多。中期影响 在于此前委内瑞拉石油生产主要依赖中国和俄罗斯，美国发动军事打击后预计开 始清场，产量将在一定时间内受到影响。长期而言，关注美 ...

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