Group 1: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2506 had a closing price of 1885.3 with a change of -0.15, a trading volume of 1178, an open interest change of -285, and a percentage change of 51.8 [2] - EC2508 had a closing price of 1740.2 with a change of 196.9, a trading volume of 50789, an open interest change of -1263, and a percentage change of -1.79 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1292.8 with a change of -0.90, a trading volume of 644.3, an open interest change of 31546, and a percentage change of -75 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1435.7 with a change of -1.50, a trading volume of 3222, an open interest change of 300, and a percentage change of 501.4 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1275.7 with a change of -2.36, a trading volume of 661.4, and an open interest change of 3916 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 2276 with a change of 449, a trading volume of 1132.0, an open interest change of 2550, and a percentage change of -1.65 [2] Group 2: Month - to - Month Spread Information - The spread between EC2506 - 2508 was 145.1, with previous spreads of 29.0 and 275.8, and a weekly opening of 116.1 [2] - The spread between EC2508 - 2510 was -20.0, with previous spreads of -168.7 and 447.4, and a weekly opening of 467.4 [2] - The spread between EC2506 - 2510 was 592.5, with previous spreads of 583.5 and 513.0 [2] - The spread between EC2510 - 2512 was -142.9, with previous spreads of -152.9 and 10.0 [2] - The spread between EC2512 - 2602 was 160.0, with previous spreads of 150.9 and 158.0 [2] Group 3: Shipping Index Information - SCEIS was 1937.14 with a previous value of 1697.63, a percentage change of 14.11%, and was updated on 2025/6/23 [2] - SCFI was 1835 $/TEU with a previous value of 1844, a percentage change of -10.62%, and was updated on 2025/6/20 [2] - CCFI was 1578.6 with previous values of 1488.87 and 1397.02, percentage changes of 6.03% and 6.57%, and was updated on 2025/6/20 [2] - NCFI was 1299.58 with a previous value of 1307.92, a percentage change of -0.64%, and was updated on 2025/6/20 [2] - TCI was 937.12 with a previous value of 962.14, a percentage change of -1.40%, and was updated on 2025/6/25 [2] Group 4: Capacity Arrangement - In July and August 2025, the average weekly capacity was 29.3 and 30.4 million TEU respectively. The OA Alliance's FAL7 route added a new service in week 28. The supply pressure was neutral in the first week of July, low in the third week, and high in the second and fourth weeks [2] Group 5: Recent European Line Quotation - For July, MSK initially opened at 3400 USD, then dropped to 3100 USD. Other carriers were mostly between 3500 - 4000 USD and then around 3500 USD. The average in the first week was 3400 USD, equivalent to 2400 points on the futures [3] - In the second week, MSK opened at 2900 USD, and the average among carriers was 3400 USD, equivalent to 2400 points on the futures. On 6/25, HPL lowered its rate from 3400 to 3200 USD [3] Group 6: News - On 6/26, the US Defense Intelligence Agency stated that its assessment of the Iranian nuclear facilities being attacked by the US military was preliminary and of low credibility. It was collaborating with other agencies to investigate the leak of the assessment [3] - On 6/26, Trump said that the US would talk with Iran next week. He believed the war between Iran and Israel was over, but would not lift sanctions on Iran. He also thought the conflict might break out again [3] - The UK Central Intelligence Agency claimed that several key Iranian nuclear facilities had been destroyed [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the container shipping market, some shipping companies followed MSK to lower spot quotes, and the EC disk remained volatile and weak under pessimistic expectations. The latest SCFIS European line quote was in line with expectations. The spot freight rate has gradually recovered, but Maersk's price cut has led to concerns about a market inflection point. In the short term, the market sentiment is expected to be weak. The extension of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations may reduce the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line, but the height of freight rates in the long - term is not optimistic. Supply and demand are expected to increase in July. The volatile Middle - East geopolitical situation may cause large fluctuations in the disk [4][5]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index ended a five - day losing streak, driven by the rise in Panamax ship freight rates. The Capesize ship freight index declined, while the Supramax bulk carrier freight index increased. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market's freight rates are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [11][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Disk - Contract EC2506 closed at 1,885.3, down 0.15% with a trading volume of 783.0 hands (down 33.53%) and an open interest of 2,491.0 hands (down 10.27%) [2]. - Contract EC2508 closed at 1,740.2, down 1.79% with a trading volume of 50,789.0 hands (down 29.08%) and an open interest of 43,528.0 hands (down 2.82%) [2]. - Other contracts also showed different price, volume, and open - interest changes [2]. Month - to - Month Structure - The spread between EC06 - EC08 was 145, up 29; the spread between EC06 - EC10 was 593, up 9, etc. [2]. Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European line (weekly) was 1937.14 points, up 14.11% week - on - week and down 59.35% year - on - year. SCFIS US West line was 2083.46 points, down 28.37% week - on - week and down 48.74% year - on - year [2]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month was $63.81 per barrel, down 3.39% week - on - week and down 21.16% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was $66.84 per barrel, down 4.14% week - on - week and down 21.5% year - on - year [2]. Dry Bulk Shipping Dry Bulk Freight Index (Daily) - BDI was 1681.00, up 0.42% day - on - day and down 15.82% year - on - year; BHSI was 628, unchanged day - on - day and down 16.60% year - on - year [11]. - Other indices also had corresponding changes [11]. Dry Bulk Freight Rates (Daily) - The freight rate of the Capesize iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was $23.18 per ton, up 3.14% day - on - day; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was $8.92 per ton, down 2.75% day - on - day [11]. Dry Bulk Freight Rates (Weekly) - The freight rate of the Capesize bauxite route from Guinea to Yantai was $22.95 per ton, down 16.09% week - on - week; the freight rate of the Panamax coal route from Samarinda, Indonesia to Ennore, India was $10.50 per ton, up 5.00% week - on - week [11]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month was $63.81 per barrel, down 3.39% week - on - week and down 21.16% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was $66.84 per barrel, down 4.14% week - on - week and down 21.5% year - on - year [11]. Shipment Data - From June 16th to June 22nd, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3506.7 million tons, up 154.0 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 3060.9 million tons, up 218.8 million tons week - on - week [13]. - It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in June will reach 1437 million tons. In May, China imported 1211 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a year - on - year increase of 37.5%, and 163 million tons from the US, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% [13]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Container Shipping - **Logic Analysis**: Spot freight rates have gradually recovered, but Maersk's price cut has affected market sentiment. The extension of the tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations may reduce the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line. Supply and demand are expected to increase in July, and the volatile Middle - East geopolitical situation may cause large fluctuations in the disk [4][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be cautious and wait and see, paying attention to trade negotiations and geopolitical changes. For arbitrage, the 6 - 8 reverse spread should be exited when it is high as EC06 approaches delivery, and the 10 - 12 reverse spread should be rolled [6]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Logic Analysis**: The Capesize ship market in Australia was quiet with slightly lower freight rates, while the Atlantic market had more cargo and slightly higher freight rates. The Panamax ship market had more coal cargoes in July, and freight rates increased slightly. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market's freight rates are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [14]. Industry News - The EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures to pressure the US [6]. - Powell said the current policy is in a favorable position and can wait and see before considering interest rate adjustments [7]. - Before the negotiation deadline, an EU official warned that the EU must issue a "credible threat" to retaliate in the trade war initiated by Trump [7]. - Trump said both Israel and Iran violated the cease - fire agreement but would not face consequences, and he no longer hoped for a regime change in Iran [8]. - Qatar's Prime Minister said that indirect talks between Hamas and Israel will be held in the next two days to reach a cease - fire agreement [8]. - The Israeli military chief of staff said the focus will return to Gaza to retrieve hostages and destroy Hamas' rule [8]. - Netanyahu refused Trump's request to completely cancel the strike on Iran [9]. - Netanyahu said Israel will take action with the same force if someone tries to resume the nuclear project [9]. - On June 24th, the Israeli Air Force destroyed a radar facility near Tehran, and then suspended further military strikes after a call between Trump and Netanyahu [9][16]. - From June 16th to June 22nd, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1257.2 million tons, up 31.0 million tons week - on - week [15]. - In May 2025, China imported 1247.7 million tons of coal from Indonesia, a month - on - month decrease of 12.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.5% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the container shipping market, due to the cease - fire news between Iran and Israel and some shipping companies reducing spot prices, most contracts declined except the 06 contract. The short - term sentiment is weak, and the long - term freight rate is not expected to be overly high under the background of the tariff trade war. It is recommended to operate with caution [4][5]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index dropped to a more than two - week low due to the decline in capesize ship freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, while the medium - sized ship market is expected to show an oscillating trend [13][17]. - In the tanker shipping market, the recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts has boosted the sentiment of the oil shipping market, and the BDTI has rebounded. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be further observed [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On June 24, 2025, most container shipping futures contracts declined, with EC2508 closing at 1772 points, down 5.49% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1937.14 points, up 14.11% month - on - month, and the SCFI European line reported $1835/TEU on June 20, down 0.49% month - on - month [2][4]. - Logic Analysis: Spot freight rates have gradually recovered. Maersk's reduction of spot prices in the second week of July has led to concerns about an inflection point. In terms of demand, the possible extension of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations reduces the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from June to September 2025 is expected to increase in July. The repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East may cause the far - month contracts to fall again [5]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is weakly oscillating. For arbitrage, hold the 6 - 8 reverse spread and conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6][7]. Industry News - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the comprehensive PMI was 52.8. The Port of Chittagong in Bangladesh is severely congested. There are repeated developments in the Iran - Israel cease - fire news [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Index: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell to a more than two - week low, with the capesize ship freight index dropping and the panamax ship freight index rising [13]. - Spot Freight Rates: On June 23, the freight rates of some capesize ship routes declined, while those of some panamax ship routes increased [14]. - Shipping Data: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased. Brazil's soybean export is expected to reach 1437 tons in June. In May, China's imports of US and Brazilian soybeans increased [15]. - Logic Analysis: The capesize ship market is pessimistic about future freight rates, and the panamax ship market has a slight increase in freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market is expected to oscillate [17]. Industry News - The inventory of seven major iron ore ports in Australia and Brazil increased. Typhoon "Sepat" is approaching Japan [18][19]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Rates: On June 23, the Baltic Crude Oil Transport Index (BDTI) was 1099, up 4.27% month - on - month, and the Baltic Product Oil Transport Index (BCTI) was 720, up 1.69% month - on - month. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums [21]. - Logic Analysis: The short - term demand is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter. The freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and the impact of market sentiment on freight rates needs to be observed [21]. Industry News - Israel will strongly respond to Iran's violation of the cease - fire. HSBC predicts the future trend of oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production and exports increased in April [22][24]. Relevant Attachments There are multiple figures in the report, including the SCFIS European and US West lines index, SCFI comprehensive index, BDI index, BDTI, and BCTI, etc., which visually present the historical trends of relevant data [25][33][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For container shipping, the spot freight rate is gradually recovering, with the first round of price increases exceeding expectations and the second round still under observation. The spot freight rate center is expected to continue rising, and there is still an expectation of price increases in July. In the short term, the market is volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see. For the 08 contract, with the peak - season expectation still in place, the general idea is to go long on dips, and 10 - 12 and 6 - 8 reverse arbitrages should be held [5][6][7]. - For dry - bulk shipping, the Baltic Dry Index reached a near - seven - month high on June 9. Recently, the transport demand of large - vessel markets has increased, supporting the freight rate, but it may peak and decline in the short term. The medium - vessel market is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the coal transport demand [15][18]. - For oil tanker transportation, the BDTI is maintaining a volatile trend. OPEC+ has gradually increased production since May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The impact of the cargo source release rhythm on the freight rate should be further observed [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On June 10, the EC2508 contract closed at 2042.1 points, down 1.14% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European Line reported 1622.81 points on June 6, up 29.5% month - on - month, and the SCFI European Line reported $1667/TEU on June 6, up 5.04% month - on - month [2][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The spot freight rate in June is gradually rising, with the second - week price center between $2800 - 2900. Mainstream shipping companies have launched the second round of GRI window price increases in June. The first round of price increases exceeded expectations, and the second round is still under observation. The demand side has the continued rush of shipments on the Sino - US route, alleviating the pressure of vessel spill - over from the US route to the European route. The supply side shows that the monthly average weekly capacity from May to August 2025 is 27.36/27.58/30.53/31.94 million TEU respectively [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see due to high short - term uncertainty. For the 08 contract, the general idea is to go long on dips. For arbitrage, hold the 10 - 12 and 6 - 8 reverse arbitrages [7][8]. Industry News - On June 6, Hudong - Zhonghua Shipbuilding delivered the world's largest 24000TEU LNG dual - fuel ultra - large container ship "CMA CGM Saint - Germain" for CMA CGM, 6 months ahead of schedule. The US Trade Representative's Office adjusted the port charging structure for Chinese - built ships, postponed the implementation time for using US - built LNG carriers for US LNG exports, and further targeted car carriers [10]. - Regarding the Red Sea situation, on June 10, Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated that if Iran is attacked by Israel, Israel's secret nuclear facilities will become Iran's targets. Iran's Foreign Ministry said it will take retaliatory measures if the IAEA passes a resolution against Iran [11][12]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: On June 9, the Baltic Dry Index rose 3.6% to 1691 points, reaching a near - seven - month high. The Capesize vessel freight index rose 5.9% to 3010 points, and the Panamax vessel freight index rose 1.5% to 1264 points, while the Supramax vessel freight index fell to 926 points [14][15]. - **Export Data**: In May, Brazil exported 35.077 million tons of iron ore, up 7.4% year - on - year and 16.2% month - on - month. From January to May, the export volume was 150 million tons, up 2.5% year - on - year. The export volume to China in May was 23.43 million tons, up 14% year - on - year [15]. - **Spot Freight Rate**: On June 9, the freight rate of the Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI - C3) route was $24.13/ton, down 1.45% month - on - month, and the West Australia - Qingdao (BCI - C5) route was $10.09/ton, down 3.39% month - on - month [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The transport demand of the Capesize vessel market has weakened recently, and the freight rate may peak and decline in the short term. The Panamax vessel market is relatively positive, and it is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the coal transport demand [18]. Industry News - From June 2 to June 8, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.104 million tons, up 794,000 tons month - on - month. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 29.194 million tons, up 506,000 tons month - on - month [19]. - In May, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, up 1.1% month - on - month, and imported 481,000 tons of steel, down 7.9% month - on - month. The import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 98.131 million tons, down 4.9% month - on - month, and the import volume of coal and lignite was 36.04 million tons, down 4.7% month - on - month [20]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Rate Index**: On June 9, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 941, down 1.05% month - on - month and 25.73% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 616, down 1.60% month - on - month and 25.42% year - on - year [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC+ has gradually increased production since May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The impact of the cargo source release rhythm on the freight rate should be further observed [23]. Industry News - The price of refinery naphtha has been declining in the past three months, but the profit of the refinery reforming unit has improved, and the demand for naphtha is expected to improve [25]. - The oil production of five OPEC+ member countries participating in the production increase in May increased by 180,000 barrels per day, lower than the promised increase of 310,000 barrels per day [25]. - Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated that if Iran is attacked by Israel, Israel's secret nuclear facilities will become Iran's targets [26].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The addition of tariffs to small packages by the EU and the less - than - expected price increase by MSK have led to wide - ranging fluctuations in the shipping market, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. The market shows intense long - short gaming, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and current freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Data - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% [2]. - On May 16, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 750.91 points, down 0.78%; for the US - West route, it was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% [2]. - On May 16, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%; the SCFI US - West route price was 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70% [2]. - On May 16, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1104.88 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; for the US - West route, it was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. - On May 21, the main contract 2508 closed at 2121.1, down 7.18%, with a trading volume of 100,500 lots and an open interest of 53,000 lots, an increase of 1266 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's preliminary April manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous - 2.9) [2]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The preliminary April US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final 50.2), the services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final 54.4), and the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final 53.5) [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: Given the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate in the short - term. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. Currently, it is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high levels, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. Other Information - Tariffs have become a means of trade negotiation, adding a major disturbing factor to the future of maritime shipping. Although the easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments in 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - route shipping capacity, price wars among alliances cannot be avoided [3]. - There are differences in the future freight rate trends and price announcements. The market has intense long - short gaming, with wide - ranging fluctuations and an obvious decline at the end of the session [3]. - The Israeli government has recalled some of its negotiators for the detained persons in Gaza, leaving only a small team in Doha, Qatar [5]. - The EU plans to impose a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU, most of which are from China [5].

2025年5月19日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 达飞传出复航消息，MSK6月运价不及预期，各合约或将回调，符合日报预期，已建议冲高止盈 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 5月12日 | 5月16日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1302.62点，较上期下跌5.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1014.55点，较上期上涨6.53% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1455.31点，较上期上涨10.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）750.91点，较上期下跌0.78% | | 5月16日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1813.08点，较上期上涨23.18% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1479.39点，较上期下跌134.22点 | 5月16日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1154USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.60% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1104.88点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航 ...

Report Overview - The report is a shipping research report by the Commodity Research Institute, covering container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and tanker transportation [1][10][28] Group 1: Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The 08 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued to strengthen significantly on May 13, with EC2508 closing at 1896 points, up 5.69% from the previous day's close [5] - The SCFIS European line reported 1302.62 points on May 13, down 5.54% month-on-month, and the SCFI European line reported $1161/TEU on May 9, down 3.25% month-on-month [5] - The spot freight rate bottom is gradually emerging. After the tariff reduction, the US line rush shipment starts to raise prices first. The European line disk anticipates first, and then the follow-up focus returns to the spot. The short-term near-month disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] - Hold the 8-10 positive spread, 6-10 positive spread, and 10-12 negative spread [8] Industry News - The EU welcomes the substantial progress and important consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade high-level talks, hoping to reduce trade barriers and support the stability and predictability of global trade and investment [9][10][11] - US tariff revenue in April reached $16 billion, a surge of $9 billion or 130% from the same period last year [11] Group 2: Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dry Bulk Composite Freight Index ended its four consecutive trading days of decline. The BDI rose 0.38% to 1304 points, the BCI rose 1.29% to 1731 points, the BPI fell 0.81% to 1342 points, and the BSI rose 0.10% to 970 points [15] - On May 12, the freight rates of the Cape-sized ship iron ore routes, Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI-C3) and Western Australia - Qingdao (BCI-C5), were reported at $18.36/ton and $7.56/ton, up 0.80% and 0.93% month-on-month respectively [16] - The dry bulk shipping market lacks obvious incremental transportation demand, with more supply of shipping capacity, and the freight rates are under pressure. The international dry bulk freight market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17] Industry News - From May 5 to May 11, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.225 million tons, a decrease of 1.179 million tons month-on-month. The global iron ore shipments were 30.29 million tons, a decrease of 0.215 million tons month-on-month [18] - The analysis institution APK - Inform lowered the forecast of Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons and the grain export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 4% to 40.9 million tons [18] - Indonesia's coal exports from January to April decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, hitting a new low for the same period in three years [19] Group 3: Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was reported at 991, down 0.40% month-on-month and 14.50% year-on-year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was reported at 574, up 0.17% month-on-month and down 45.54% year-on-year [22] - OPEC+ started to gradually increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The concentrated outflow of cargoes in late April and early May supported the VLCC ship market, and the impact of the cargo release rhythm on freight rates needs further attention [22] Industry News - As of May 12, the domestic refined oil social unit diesel storage capacity utilization rate was 30.35%, up 0.02% from the end of last month [23] - US President Trump hopes to obtain a $1 trillion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, but this goal may face huge obstacles [23][24] - After the China-US trade negotiation, the market showed an unexpectedly positive trend, but the oil price subsequently fell back, and the market atmosphere remained cautious [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations meets the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits if the price surges today [1] - The core logic for this year lies in the trend of international tariff policies. There are concerns about the price war between MSK and MSC in Q2 and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [4] - Short - term operation is difficult due to external policy turmoil, and it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term strategies. In the context of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse spread structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. Risk - preference investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, setting stop - losses and taking profits on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - On May 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1320.69 points, up 7.3% from the previous period [2] - On May 9, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 952.32 points, up 2.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 756.79 points, down 0.94% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1471.92 points, down 0.41% from the previous period [2] - On May 9, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1345.17 points, down 4.24 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1161 USD/TEU, down 3.3% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2347 USD/FEU, up 3.3% from the previous period [2] - On May 9, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1106.38 points, down 1.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1445.24 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 857.65 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [2] 3.2 Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7 (expected 47.5); the added - value of the service industry PMI in April was 49.7 (expected 50.5); the added - value of the composite PMI in April was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9) [2] - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2] - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3] - In the US, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary service industry PMI in April was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary composite PMI in April was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3] - In the first four months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%; imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. In April, China's goods trade import and export was 3.84 trillion yuan, up 5.6%. Exports were 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 0.8% [4] 3.3 Futures Market - On May 9, the main contract 2506 closed at 1249.8, down 0.80%, with a trading volume of 36,800 lots and an open interest of 36,900 lots, a decrease of 1255 lots from the previous day [4] - The daily trading limit for contracts 2504 - 2602 is 16%, the company's margin for contracts 2504 - 2602 is 26%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4] 3.4 Geopolitical News - On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to a cease - fire [4] - Maersk announced that the Red Sea will remain closed for shipping throughout 2025, which boosts bullish confidence to some extent [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a rise of 4.24 points to 1345.17 as of May 9, while the China Export Container Freight Index decreased by 1.3% to 1106.38 [1] - Mysteel's survey indicated that the operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills reached 84.62%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points week-on-week and up 3.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average daily pig iron output was 2.4564 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.022 million tons [1] Group 2 - The General Administration of Customs and six other departments announced adjustments to management measures for customs special supervision zones, effective June 10, 2025 [2] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 to 10 totaled 293,991 tons, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last month [2] - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association urged major nitrogen fertilizer companies to reduce urea factory prices within three days to not exceed levels prior to May 6 [2]

Group 1 - As of May 5, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for European routes is reported at 1379.07 points, a decrease of 3.5% compared to the previous period [1] - From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports amounted to 26.344 million tons, a decrease of 452,000 tons week-on-week [1] - The total iron ore arrivals at 45 Chinese ports for the same period were 24.497 million tons, down by 631,000 tons compared to the previous week [1] Group 2 - A Reuters survey indicates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory for April 2025 is expected to be 1.79 million tons, an increase of 14.8% from March; production is projected at 1.62 million tons, up 16.9% from March; and exports are expected to reach 1.1 million tons, a 9.7% increase from March [1] - As of April 24, 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption for the year is reported at 4.44 million liters, with 3.2 million liters consumed from January to March; the mandatory palm oil blending ratio for biodiesel in Indonesia is set at 40%, up from 35% last year [1] Group 3 - As of May 3, 2025, Brazil's soybean harvest rate for the 2024/25 season is at 97.7%, compared to 94.8% the previous week and 94.3% the same time last year, with a five-year average of 96.3% [1] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report shows that as of May 4, 2025, the soybean planting rate in the U.S. is at 30%, below market expectations of 31%, and up from 18% the previous week and 24% last year, with a five-year average of 23%; the emergence rate is at 7%, compared to 8% last year and a five-year average of 5% [2] - India's Ministry of Mines reports that aluminum production for the fiscal year 2024-25 is expected to increase to 420,000 tons from 416,000 tons in 2023-24; refined copper production is projected to grow by 12.6%, from 509,000 tons in 2023-24 to 573,000 tons [2]