Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 17, marking the first reduction since December 2024, signaling a significant shift in economic conditions [1] - Recent economic data indicates a slowdown in the U.S. economy, with GDP unexpectedly contracting by 0.5% in Q1 2025, and net exports dragging down growth by 4.61 percentage points [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, with job creation falling short of market expectations for three consecutive months [3] Group 2 - Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve has been notable, as he has pressured the institution for aggressive rate cuts to boost economic growth and enhance his political standing [3] - The Fed's decision to cut rates reflects a delicate balance, with internal dissent highlighted by a dissenting vote from a Trump-appointed member, indicating concerns over the adequacy of the rate cut [3][5] - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "preventive" measure, acknowledging the severe economic situation while also cautioning against potential inflation risks [5] Group 3 - The immediate market reaction to the rate cut saw a decline in the U.S. dollar index, indicating a reshuffling of global capital flows [5] - The depreciation of the dollar makes other currencies relatively "more valuable," introducing new variables for international trade and cross-border investments [5] - Chinese assets have shown positive performance across stock, currency, and bond markets, prompting investors to reassess their strategies in light of these developments [5] Group 4 - The future economic trajectory remains uncertain, with Powell's inflation concerns suggesting that overly aggressive monetary policy could lead to rising prices and deeper economic troubles [6] - The interconnectedness of the global economy means that U.S. policy decisions can trigger significant ripple effects in international markets [6] - Investors and market participants must adopt forward-looking strategies to navigate the complexities of the evolving global economic landscape [8]

在本周四开始的为期两天的日本央行会议之前，交易员们似乎也不太情愿。 日元（JPY）周四连续第二天走低，并进一步回落至7月7日以来的最高水平，此前一天美元（USD）普遍走强。投资者仍然担心，日本国内政治的不确定性 可能会给日本央行（BoJ）更多推迟加息的理由。再加上日本公布的核心机械订单数据弱于预期，以及市场普遍乐观的风险基调，这些因素被认为正在削弱 避险货币日元的走势。 然而，交易员可能不会对日元进行激进的看跌押注，而是选择等待周五日本央行为期两天的政策会议的结果。此外，越来越多的人接受日本央行将坚持其政 策正常化路径，这与美联储的鸽派立场形成了鲜明对比，这应该会限制低收益日元的跌幅。尽管如此，FOMC会议后美元从2022年2月以来的最低水平回 升，可能仍会支撑美元/日元汇率。 由于日本央行和美联储的政策前景存在分歧，日元空头似乎不愿入场。 本周四早些时候公布的政府数据显示，日本7月份核心机械订单环比下降4.6%。与去年同期相比，私营部门订单增速从6月份的7.6%降至4.9%。这些数据远 低于市场预期，并在亚洲时段对日元构成压力。 与此同时，美联储一如预期，自2024年12月以来首次降低借贷成本，并表示在劳动 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure, retreating below the historical high of $3700, influenced by a rebound in the US dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates and comments from Chairman Powell indicating no immediate need for rapid rate cuts [1][2]. Market Drivers - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with indications of two more rate cuts within the year due to a slowing job market [2]. - Despite an initial surge in gold prices, the rebound in US Treasury yields and the dollar led to a sharp decline in gold prices, as Powell highlighted upward inflation risks and a gradual approach to future rate policy [2]. Geopolitical Risks - The intensification of geopolitical tensions, including Russia's military actions and Israel's increased military operations in Gaza, may provide some support for gold prices, limiting potential declines [3]. Technical Analysis - Key support for gold is identified at $3645, previously a resistance level, while $3700 remains a strong resistance point [4][6]. - If gold prices fall below $3645, further declines to the $3610-$3600 range may occur, while a breakthrough above $3678-$3680 could lead to a challenge of the historical high [6]. Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections indicate a growth forecast of 1.6% for the US economy this year, with core PCE inflation expected at 3.1% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of DBS Bank, Taimur Baig, predicts that the Federal Reserve will only lower interest rates twice in 2025 and once in 2026, contrary to market expectations of three rate cuts in both years [1] Economic Factors - U.S. tariff policies and immigration controls are tightening the labor market, contributing to inflation risks [1] - Strong financial conditions for households and businesses, along with a surge in AI-related energy demand, are also factors driving inflation [1] - The ongoing rise in the stock market is expected to further exacerbate inflationary pressures [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The current rate-cutting cycle is anticipated to stall after a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points [1] - The mainstream view of a terminal rate of 3.5% by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is unlikely to be shaken due to heightened inflation pressures compared to a year ago [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage investment rating: On hold [7] - Option investment rating: Short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market's interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled, and copper prices declined. However, the TC price of copper remains low, and the demand outlook is not as pessimistic as in the middle of the year. When the price drops below 80,000 yuan/ton, the downstream restocking sentiment may be stimulated [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 17, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 81,010 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 80,560 yuan/ton, a -0.40% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract in the night session was 79,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 79,880 yuan/ton, a 0.84% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper continued to weaken. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,410 - 80,790 yuan/ton, with a premium of 60 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan) over the main contract. The market procurement sentiment was low, and holders actively lowered prices to sell [2] Important Information Summary - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the market expected a more than 90% chance of a rate cut in October [3] Mining End - Australia's Orion Minerals signed a non - binding term sheet with a Glencore subsidiary to provide $200 million - $250 million in financing for its Prieska copper - zinc project in South Africa. Different countries have introduced different mining regulatory measures [4] Smelting and Import - Canadian miner Highland Copper's Copperwood copper project in the US received a "non - binding interest letter" from the US Export - Import Bank, with a potential financing of up to $250 million [5] Consumption - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 37.3% and 36.7% [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,675 tons to 149,775 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons to 33,291 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 154,200 tons, an increase of 9,900 tons from the previous week [6] Table Data - The table shows data on copper prices, premiums, inventories, warehouse receipts, spreads, and arbitrage ratios from different time points (September 18, 2025; September 17, 2025; September 11, 2025; August 19, 2025) [26][27][28]

123456789:;<2025-09-18 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./012 ——!"#$%&'(3 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 9 月利率决议，宣布降息 25bp，将利 率下调至在 4.00%-4.25%，符合预期。 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 高聪 !"#$$%&'$ 9 月 18 日，美联储如期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是 今年九个月以来的首次降息。声明内容相比 7 月有明显变化，美联储删除了 "劳动力市 场状况稳健" 的表述，新增 "就业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升，就业下行风险增加"，显 示对劳动力市场的担忧加剧。此次降息被定位为 "风险管理型" 降息，主要是为了应对 就业市场恶化的风险，而非通胀压力。FOMC 点阵图显示，今年内预计还将降息两次， 但内部分歧较大，仅有不到半数 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months since December 2024 [1] - Following the announcement, the US dollar index fell by 0.13% to 96.48, while the New York stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 260.42 points (0.57%), the S&P 500 declining by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 0.33% [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management measure" aimed at addressing the current complex economic environment, noting that inflation risks have eased since April due to a cooling labor market and slowing GDP growth [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve forecasts two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, which is one more than the prediction made in June, and anticipates an additional 25 basis point cut each year for the next two years [1] - The FOMC will continue to reduce its holdings of US Treasuries, agency bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities while maintaining the current pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - The Fed projects a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, an increase from the June forecast of 1.4%, with a long-term growth rate expectation of 1.8% [1]

智通财经APP注意到，美联储主席鲍威尔驳斥了债券交易员的押注——这些交易员预计美联储将通过一系列激进的 降息来防止美国经济停滞。 尽管美联储如普遍预期那样将基准利率下调了25个基点，并预计今年还将有两次此类降息，但这位美联储主席表明 他并未放弃谨慎态度，仍然警惕通胀风险。政策制定者也没有屈服于美国总统特朗普要求更大幅度降息的压力，唯 一的异议来自总统刚刚任命至美联储理事会的一位白宫顾问。 这使市场对本次会议抱有很高的期望，并埋下了债券市场再次回调的风险——自疫情结束以来，债券市场已多次因 美联储的行动而措手不及。也有人猜测，特朗普的压力会通过驱使一些人推动更大幅度的降息，从而在美联储理事 会内部造成分歧。 债券交易员认为，这一立场表明，即使就业市场步履蹒跚，货币政策的路径仍远未确定。因此，美联储最初决定后 出现的国债短暂上涨行情逐渐消退，推动10年期收益率在美国交易时段结束时上涨6个基点至4.09%。 鲍威尔明确表示，他准备放松政策以阻止劳动力市场恶化，他表示他不再认为劳动力市场"非常稳固"。但他强调， 美联储远未转入救火模式，并表示仍需要确保特朗普的关税不会重新引发通胀，且政策制定者仍处于"逐次会议决 策的 ...

东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲对记者分析称，尽管美联储主席在FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）中对货币政策决议只有一票，在形式上与其他委 员一致，但作为美联储的核心人物，其无论是在对内设置会议议程与引导讨论，还是在对外沟通表态上，均能对货币政策整体风向产生举足轻 重的影响。由于鲍威尔任期即将于2026年5月到期，因此选择一位更加鸽派的主席候选人成为了特朗普目前对美联储独立性干预最直接的手 段。 从种种迹象来看，美联储独立性面临的挑战才刚开始，一场更大的风暴或在酝酿。 图片来源：新华社 美联储独立性风暴暗流涌动。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间9月16日，美国白宫发言人表示，特朗普政府将就法院阻止撤换美联储理事莉萨·库克的裁决提出上诉。此前美国联 邦上诉法院裁定，阻止美国总统特朗普在美联储议息会议召开前将理事莉萨·库克撤职。 与此同时，特朗普提名的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰于16日宣誓就职，火速参与美联储9月利率决议，他与库克共处美联储会议桌的同一个角落， 两人之间仅隔着1名理事。 而到了明年，美联储主席鲍威尔将卸任，特朗普将通过提名新任主席对美联储施加更大影响。 罢免库克事件争议重重 特朗普政府罢免库克一案被视为对美联储独立性的 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 18:00 GMT, followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell at 18:30 GMT [1] - A surprise 50 basis point rate cut could lead to significant selling pressure on the USD, while a 25 basis point cut with a dovish outlook could weaken the dollar [3] - Market participants will closely monitor Powell's comments regarding labor market and growth outlook, as concerns may negatively impact the USD, while inflation risks could support it [3] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) may indicate a total rate cut of 75 basis points by 2025, which is 25 basis points higher than the June forecast [3] - There may be differing opinions within the committee, with potential for three members advocating a 50 basis point cut, marking a significant divergence not seen since 1988 [3] - The short-term technical outlook for EUR/USD remains slightly bullish, with the RSI above 50 and trading above the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages [4] Group 3 - EUR/USD may test resistance levels at 1.1900 and 1.2000, with the first resistance at 1.1830, while support is seen at 1.1680-1.1660 and subsequently at 1.1540 [5]