贝莱德、桥水联合基金和太平洋投资管理公司的基金经理正调整投资组合，应对市场普遍忽视的通胀上 行风险。 贝莱德旗下战术机会基金自去年底以来，持续加仓做空长期美国国债和英国金边债券，防范降息预期落 空带来的风险。桥水联合基金将配置重心更多转向股票资产，太平洋投资管理公司则重点布局带有通胀 调整机制的美国国债，依托这类产品构建通胀对冲缓冲。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 1月以来，多项市场指标印证了相关机构的判断：普通美国国债与通胀保值债券的收益率利差攀升至数 月以来的最高水平，通胀互换合约价格同步上行，反映市场通胀预期正在抬升。当前通胀压力的核心来 源，是美国经济的强劲表现或将再度推升物价水平；若美国总统特朗普提名的下一任美联储主席凯文· 沃什推动更快、更大幅度的降息操作，通胀上行压力将进一步放大。从全球范围来看，大宗商品价格上 涨、各国政府发债规模扩大以及人工智能领域的投资热潮推高相关产业链用工与原材料成本，也在持续 加剧通胀压力。 瑞银集团高级交易员本·皮尔森指出，美国主导的'通胀型繁荣'是今年被投资者严重低估的核心风险。他 表示，若该情 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Walsh has been nominated by President Trump to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, with a policy inclination towards "parallel rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" [1][3]. Group 1: Kevin Walsh's Background and Policy Stance - Walsh has a background in mergers and acquisitions at Morgan Stanley and served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, making him the youngest member at that time [3]. - Initially viewed as a supporter of free trade and a hawkish figure in monetary policy, Walsh has shifted to support Trump's tariff policies and calls for accelerated rate cuts [3]. - He advocates for lower interest rates while simultaneously calling for a significant reduction in the Fed's balance sheet and easing bank regulations, which contrasts with typical rate cut cycles [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following Walsh's nomination, the U.S. dollar strengthened, gold prices fell sharply, and Bitcoin experienced significant declines, indicating market concerns about potential political pressures on the Fed [6][7]. - The dollar index rose from a low of 95.55 to around 96.99 after the announcement, while gold prices saw volatility, dropping from a historical high of over $5,500 per ounce [6]. - Bitcoin fell below $80,000, reflecting its sensitivity to changes in interest rate expectations and the dollar's strength [7]. Group 3: Future Policy Challenges - Walsh's proposed policies face challenges, including the need for majority support from the Federal Open Market Committee and the effectiveness of his policy mix depending on regulatory reforms [5]. - Analysts suggest that if Walsh leads the Fed, there may be 1-3 rate cuts within a year, but the long-term policy path remains uncertain due to the potential conflicting effects of balance sheet reduction and rate cuts [5]. - The dynamic between tightening and loosening monetary policy will depend heavily on economic performance and inflation data, as well as Walsh's ability to balance Fed independence with political pressures [5]. Group 4: Impact on Domestic Markets - The Fed's policy changes are expected to have spillover effects on domestic financial markets, particularly through exchange rates and capital flows [9]. - If Walsh's policies lead to a stronger dollar, it may exert short-term pressure on the Chinese yuan, although potential rate cuts could help narrow the interest rate differential between the U.S. and China [9][10]. - Despite external influences, China's economic fundamentals are expected to provide support for the yuan's stability, with a focus on maintaining a balanced and resilient foreign exchange market [10][11].

但他们认为，美联储的货币政策仍有可能走向过度宽松，与当前的经济基本面脱节。 来源：环球市场播报 德国商业银行分析师Bernd Weidensteiner和Christoph Balz分析称，特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文・ 沃什，上任初期将优先推动美联储内部形成政策共识，而后从2026年年中开始逐步落实进一步的降息举 措。 两位分析师表示，鉴于美国经济当前表现强劲，特朗普提出的 "美国要实现全球最低利率" 的诉求恐难 被采纳。 此外，沃什本身倡导美联储改革，其捍卫美联储独立性的立场或与历任主席不同，这一情况或将推升通 胀风险。 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇1月29日｜德国商业银行经济学家Christoph Balz指出，美联储理事沃勒在周三会议上投下反对票 应被视为其角逐美联储主席职位的一次行动。若拒绝特朗普强烈要求的降息，可能会大幅降低沃勒的获 选概率。沃勒投票支持降息25个基点，与同为特朗普提名的米兰立场一致。沃勒仍可辩称自己近几个月 持续警告劳动力市场恶化风险，且认为当前通胀风险已非主要矛盾。在预测市场上，目前沃勒的支持率 仍落后于贝莱德高管里克·里德尔及前美联储理事凯文·沃什。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcement, with a consensus that interest rates will remain in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, but the language used by Chairman Powell will significantly influence the short-term dynamics between the dollar and risk assets [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Market Reactions - The market is at a delicate balance; if Powell adopts a "dovish pause," indicating that the current interest rate level is temporary and that a rate cut may be on the horizon, risk assets like Bitcoin could see a resurgence [1][3]. - Current macroeconomic data supports a cautious approach from the Fed, with the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged pegged at 96% according to CME FedWatch [1][3]. - Internal divisions within the Fed are emerging, with some voting members stating that it is "too early" for a rate cut, which could weaken the dollar's dominance and provide a boost to the cryptocurrency market if a minority advocating for significant rate cuts is recognized [1][3]. Group 2: Dollar Strength and Economic Implications - Powell's commentary on economic robustness could act as a "booster" for the dollar; if the Fed does not acknowledge the current financial environment as restrictive, the interest rate differential will further favor the dollar against low-yield currencies like the yen and euro [2][4]. - A strong dollar backdrop typically exerts valuation pressure on dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin [5]. - The proposed $200 billion mortgage bond purchase plan by Trump and potential tariff policies are viewed as medium to long-term inflation risk factors, complicating the Fed's future policy guidance [5]. - The current shift in risk appetite and safe-haven logic is significant, with political disputes regarding Fed independence and bond market volatility adding complexity to the upcoming decision [5]. - Given Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks, if Powell's statements fail to alleviate inflation concerns, the market may experience a volatile phase characterized by initial gains followed by a pullback [5].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, silver showed strong performance and reached a new historical high, with London silver breaking through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday. Geopolitical risks continue, and market risk - aversion sentiment remains strong, driving up precious - metal prices. The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman may become a short - term market focus. In terms of commodity attributes, the silver market is in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year, and the continuous inflow of global silver ETFs and the decline in COMEX inventory indicate a long - term strong trend for silver. It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy 3.1.1 Weekly View - **Silver Trend**: Last week, silver oscillated at a high level and reached a new historical high on Friday. London silver broke through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday, closing at $103.341. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new high of 25,838 yuan per kilogram. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were 14.7% and 11% respectively, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [7] - **US Economy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of January 17th was 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000. The number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.85 million last week, lower than the expected 1.89 million, the lowest level since November. The US GDP in the third quarter had a quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years [7] - **Inflation**: In November, the overall PCE price index in the US increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The core PCE price index also increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The market is focused on the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which may affect expectations of the Fed's future interest - rate path [7] - **Interest Rates**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond remained the same as the previous week, and the US dollar index weakened continuously last week [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a supply - demand gap of over 100 million ounces, and the market has been in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. As of January 23, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,090 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. COMEX inventory declined continuously last week. LBMA inventory dropped to a historical low, and most of the silver is linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [7] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between domestic and foreign silver futures narrowed last week, closing at 1,845. The gold - silver ratio in London spot market closed below 50, at 48.20 [7] 3.1.2 Strategy - It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver through charts [11][15] 3.3 US Economy - The report shows the trends of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate through charts [22][23] 3.4 Inflation - It presents the trends of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE through charts [28][31] 3.5 Interest Rates - It shows the trends of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates through charts [37][39] 3.6 Fundamentals 3.6.1 Global Silver Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to be 1.0306 billion ounces (a 2% year - on - year increase), and demand is expected to be 1.1482 billion ounces (a 1% year - on - year decrease), with a supply - demand gap of 117.6 million ounces (a 21% year - on - year decrease) [43] 3.6.2 Silver Demand - The report presents the trend of silver ETF holdings through a chart [44] 3.6.3 Silver Inventory - It shows the trends of COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory through charts [47][53] 3.7 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - It presents the trends of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, euro against the US dollar, US dollar against the Japanese yen, British pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Canadian dollar through charts [58][64][66] 3.8 Silver Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures and their price differences through charts [75] 3.9 Silver Basis - It presents the trends of domestic and foreign silver basis through charts [80][85] 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio - It shows the trends of the gold - silver ratio in SHFE and COMEX through a chart [88]

根据彭博社最新的月度经济学家调查，经济学家们目前预计，美联储最早要到6月才会降息。就在上个 月，经济学家们还预测今年的首次降息将在3月到来。 在经历了美国自2021年以来最强劲的连续两个季度经济增长之后，美联储也并未面临立即降息的压力。 此外，预测人士认为，美国政府停摆对GDP的拖累程度将小于此前预期。美国第四季度GDP增速预计为 2.1%，不仅较此前经济学家的预测翻了一倍以上，也与美国经济的长期趋势水平一致。 在今年应当多快、以及降息多少的问题上，美联储官员内部仍存在分歧，其中持保留态度者主要担心通 胀风险。剔除食品和能源价格的核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数预计今年平均为2.7%，并在2027年 年中前回落至2.2%。 彭博社于1月15日至21日对75位经济学家进行了调查，调查期间，来自特朗普政府、对美联储独立性的 威胁不断加剧。就在调查开始前几天，美国司法部向美联储发出了传票；与此同时，美国最高法院本周 就特朗普是否有权解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）举行了听证。 随着通胀压力仍未完全消退，以及美国劳动力市场出现企稳迹象，经济学家们的降息时间表被进一步推 后。美联储政策制定者偏好的通胀指 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged during the upcoming meeting, with a significant reduction in the likelihood of rate cuts this quarter, potentially delaying monetary easing until after Chairman Powell's term ends in May [1] - A survey of 100 economists indicated that all respondents expect the Fed to keep the benchmark rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75% during the January 27-28 meeting, with 58% predicting rates will remain unchanged throughout the first quarter [1] - This marks a notable shift from last month, where most economists anticipated at least one rate cut in March [1] Group 2 - According to a report by Shenwan Hongyuan, U.S. inflation may exhibit a "high then low" characteristic in 2026, influenced by tariff transmission and tax cuts, with potential core PCE year-on-year rates of 2.8%, 2.6%, and 2.5% depending on the tariff transmission rate [2] - The macroeconomic outlook for the first half of the year suggests resilient growth, stable employment, and peak inflation, leading the Fed to potentially pause rate cuts, while the second half may see a resumption of rate cuts as deflation begins [2] - Key economic data to watch includes the UK CBI retail sales balance, U.S. Q3 GDP final annualized rate, initial jobless claims, personal spending, and PCE price index for November [2] Group 3 - Gold prices surged to a new historical high, driven by heightened risk aversion due to trade tensions, although recent comments from President Trump eased some of these tensions, limiting further gains [3] - The current trading price for gold is around 4820, with resistance expected near 4870 and support at approximately 4770 [3] Group 4 - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight gains, trading around 158.70, supported by short covering and a rebound in the dollar index due to easing trade tensions, although concerns over potential Bank of Japan intervention limited upside [4] - Resistance is noted around 159.50, with support at approximately 158.00 [4] Group 5 - The USD/CAD pair rebounded slightly, trading at around 1.3820, supported by short covering and technical buying near the 1.3800 level, while rising oil prices constrained further gains [5] - Resistance is expected near 1.3900, with support around 1.3700 [5]

城堡基金CEO格里芬：特朗普试图敦促美联储推行的宽松货币政策增加了通胀风险。 来源：滚动播报 ...

【1月15日渣打银行报告：全球核心主题将转向财政刺激】1月15日，渣打银行首席策略师埃里克·罗伯 逊在2026年展望报告中指出，全球核心主题将从货币刺激转向财政刺激。他预计今年更多国家会转向财 政支出，这将使政府借款增加，债务可持续性成全球辩论焦点。此外，他还指出，市场流动性在2025年 达多年峰值后，今年或逆转扩张态势，且通胀风险可能被低估，使央行处境日益被动。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...