gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 隔夜国际油价震荡,布伦特01合约跌0.4%。上周五因乌克兰袭击停运的CPC出口终端和俄罗斯黑海 港口已分别于上周五和上周日恢复,市场供给担忧应声缓解。原油市场四季度及明年一季度供需压 力仍趋放大，中期油价下行风险仍存，短期关注11月21日俄罗斯两油制裁生效后出口的进一步影响 及委内、伊朗风险释放情况。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属延续调整。近期美联储多位官员发言偏鹰压制降息预期，12月降息概率降至五成以下, 市场等待经济数据继续权衡经济和货币政策前景。贵金属构筑高位震荡平台，耐心等待新驱动以及 技术面的方向性指引。 【铜】 隔夜铜市阴线震荡,市场关注需求强弱,同时美国通胀风险升温。沪铜继续减仓,板块内表现相对 被动。业内关注上海铜年会加工费谈判。周一现铜报86510元，最后交易日上海铜升水105元，广东 升水10元，SMM社库减少7300吨至19.38万吨。刚果（金）卢阿拉巴州铜矿山体滑坡系Mourondo矿 区手工采矿人员聚集导致矿区桥梁坍塌所致。据称该省已紧急暂停省内所有手工采矿活动，关注事 态后续影响。铜市震荡在8.5-8.8万区间,高位空单 ...

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1] Energy Crude Oil - International oil prices fluctuated last week, with the Brent 01 contract rising 0.93%. Geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela supported oil prices, but the Russian Black Sea port resumed loading on Sunday. Supply-demand pressure in the crude oil market is expected to increase in Q4 and Q1 next year, and there is still a downside risk for oil prices in the medium term. Short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Russia's sanctions on two types of oil exports after November 21 and the release of Venezuelan risks [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil is still suppressed by the cost side. High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by a marginal decline in Russian exports due to sanctions and facility attacks in the short term, but its exports are expected to increase further as the Middle East increases production and the power generation peak season ends, and the medium-term supply pattern may become more relaxed. Low-sulfur fuel oil has seen some improvement in its fundamentals compared to the previous period, as unstable overseas refinery operations have relieved some supply pressure, and the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking provides support from the conversion logic, combined with the peak demand season for marine fuel in Q4 and the easing of Sino-US trade relations [20] LPG - Import resources are in short supply. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation plants has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the demand for the combustion end. The storage rates of refineries and ports have decreased. LPG is expected to show a slightly stronger and fluctuating trend under the tightening of supply and demand [22] Urea - The new plant of Xinjiang Zhongneng has successfully produced products, and the daily output of urea continues to increase. The start of production of industrial compound fertilizers has increased recently, and the reserve demand has followed up at low prices, resulting in a reduction in inventory for production enterprises. The impact of export sentiment is greater than the actual situation, and the short-term market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with the price center possibly moving slightly upward [23] Methanol - The volume of imported methanol arriving at ports continues to be high, and port inventories continue to accumulate. Overseas plants are operating at a high level, and there is an abundant supply of in-transit goods. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and there are expectations of shutdown and maintenance for several coastal MTO plants. Methanol may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support at the integer mark, and the market is likely to rebound in response to positive news. Monitor the shutdown time of overseas plants and changes in port inventories [24] Pure Benzene - The overseas gasoline market is strong, and the market is mainly trading on the tight supply of US pure benzene and overseas blending oil demand. The outflow of Asian pure benzene and toluene has increased. The absolute price of pure benzene is low, and the profitability is poor, but the inventory pressure is not significant, and the price has elasticity. The price rebounded last week. However, the profitability of downstream industries is generally weak, and overseas demand may be volatile, so caution is needed when evaluating the height of the rebound [25] Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene - The overall supply in the propylene market is abundant. Production enterprises have a certain intention to stabilize the market, but the overall trading volume is average, and a small number of offers have seen narrow discounts. Downstream factories are mainly waiting and watching based on rigid demand, and their purchasing mentality is cautious. However, the gradual resumption of previously shut-down butanol and octanol plants provides some support for propylene demand. In the case of polyethylene, there are no new shutdowns in domestic petrochemical plants, and most are operating normally, resulting in a stable supply of domestic products. The orders of packaging film factories have decreased, and the demand is average, with a weakened willingness to replenish stocks. The operation rate of greenhouse film factories has declined, and new orders are limited, leading to a gradual weakening of demand and a reduction in raw material purchases. For polypropylene, the previously shut-down plants have gradually restarted, increasing the supply pressure slightly. Downstream industries continue to purchase based on rigid demand, and the market trading is average, with a supply-demand imbalance still existing. Although the cost side provides stronger support, the market price is still difficult to achieve continuous growth [27] PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC shows a fluctuating trend The cancellation of India's BIS certification slightly exceeded market expectations, but the overall impact is not significant. Attention should be paid to whether India's anti-dumping policy will be implemented. The price of calcium carbide is temporarily stable, and the integrated gross profit of Shandong caustic soda and PVC is slightly in the red, providing some cost support. Upstream plants are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in industry inventories. Domestic demand is insufficient, and exports are affected by India's anti-dumping tax, leading to a wait-and-see attitude in the market. With high supply and weak demand, PVC is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Caustic soda also shows a fluctuating trend. The upstream cost has increased, and the price of caustic soda has weakened, resulting in a decline in the integrated profit of chlor-alkali. Inventories have decreased month-on-month but still face significant year-on-year pressure. The profitability of alumina has been compressed, and some enterprises are in the red, with a possibility of production cuts in the future. Currently, the raw material inventory is high, and downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to replenish stocks. With high supply and insufficient demand, caustic soda is operating weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in profitability in the future [28] PX & PTA - Affected by the tight supply of overseas aromatics, the price of PX has rebounded, driving up the price of PTA. The demand for terminal cold-proof fabrics is good, but the overall market atmosphere has cooled down. The profitability of PTA is poor, and there are still expectations of industry-wide production cuts. Recently, some plants have reduced their operating loads. The operating rate of PX plants is high, and there are also plans for plant maintenance in the future. The strong gasoline crack spread overseas and the tight supply of US aromatics have once again boosted the Asian aromatics market. However, considering the expected weakening of chemical demand and the uncertainty of the sustainability of overseas demand, a cautious bullish attitude is recommended [29] Ethylene Glycol - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly month-on-month, with integrated plants increasing their operating rates and syngas-based plants reducing theirs. The port inventory increased significantly on Monday according to Longzhong data. The start-up of new production capacity and the restart of old plants have increased the supply pressure significantly. In the short term, the increase in supply has been slightly alleviated by the increase in shutdowns of syngas-based plants. In the medium term, demand is expected to weaken, and a bearish outlook is maintained. The strategy of reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread is recommended. Continue to monitor the dynamics of plants after the decline in profitability of syngas-based plants [30] Short Fiber & Bottle Chip - There is no pressure from new production capacity for short fiber, and plants are operating at a high load. The spot market situation is good, but there are expectations of weakening demand, which may put pressure on processing margins. The absolute price fluctuates with the raw material price. As the weather gets colder, the demand for bottle chips has weakened, putting pressure on processing margins. The operating rate of plants has increased slightly, and overcapacity is a long-term pressure. The price is mainly driven by costs [31] Glass - The price of glass decreased with an increase in positions. The high inventory in the middle stream is still having a negative impact, and the spot price is showing a downward trend, with inventory accumulating this week. The increase in coal prices has raised costs and reduced profits. Four production lines in Shahe have stopped production, reducing the daily melting capacity. Processing orders have improved month-on-month but are still insufficient year-on-year. The high inventory in the middle stream persists, and the weak market reality continues. The futures price has limited upward momentum, and there is significant competition between bulls and bears in the short term. It is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach [32] 20 Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - The price of international crude oil futures has increased, while the price of raw materials in the Thai market has remained stable with a slight decline. Currently, the global supply of natural rubber is at a high level, but the production in Yunnan, China, has entered a declining period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to increase slowly, while the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to increase significantly. Last week, the operating rate of domestic all-steel radial tire plants decreased slightly, while that of semi-steel radial tire plants increased slightly. The inventory of finished products of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 44.95 million tons last week, and according to Zhuochuang data, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to increase to 1.59 million tons, while the inventory of Chinese butadiene at ports continued to decline to 2.9 million tons. Overall, demand is slowly weakening, the supply of natural rubber is decreasing, the supply of synthetic rubber is increasing, rubber inventories are increasing, and cost support is stable. Market sentiment is cautious. The strategy is to expect a rebound for RU and BR after an oversold situation, adopt a wait-and-see approach for NR, and pay attention to cross-variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR and BR [33] Soda Ash - Soda ash shows a fluctuating trend. The market for light soda ash is performing well, and industry inventories are fluctuating within a narrow range. Costs have increased, and both ammonia-soda and combined-soda plants are slightly in the red. Some soda ash plants have undergone maintenance, resulting in a month-on-month decline in production. The ignition and cold repair of photovoltaic glass coexist, and the overall production capacity has not changed significantly. Four production lines of float glass have recently stopped production. Attention should be paid to the cost-driven factor. If costs decrease, the price may fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, under the high-pressure supply pattern, there will still be a situation of oversupply [34] Metals Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices dropped significantly on Friday. With the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, the market is waiting for economic data to further assess the economic and monetary policy outlook. The hawkish statements of Fed officials have suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. Precious metals are forming a high-level consolidation platform, patiently waiting for new drivers and directional guidance from the technical side [3] Copper - The copper price first declined and then rebounded during the night session on Friday. Attention should be paid to the performance of short-term moving averages and the movement of funds. Last week, the domestic and international copper prices encountered resistance at $88,000 and $110,000 respectively. The main trading theme in the market is not clear. The market is waiting for US economic indicators and paying attention to the strength of domestic demand. The price of domestic spot copper is reported at 87,210 yuan, with a premium of 50 yuan in Shanghai and flat in Guangdong. Short-term high-level short positions can be traded with a stop-loss at 88,000 yuan. The copper price is currently in a consolidation phase [4] Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum declined on Friday. Although there are potential stories in the long-term supply and demand of the aluminum market, the short-term fundamentals are stable, and the inventory and spot performance are neutral. After the position in Shanghai aluminum increased to 800,000 lots, it decreased for two consecutive days. The overall linkage among non-ferrous metals is strong, and the slightly stronger and fluctuating trend has not been broken. Attention should be paid to the movement of funds [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan to 21,000 yuan on Friday. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the adjustment of the tax rate policy is still unclear. Both the industry inventory and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a high level. Cast aluminum alloy continues to fluctuate with the aluminum price, and there is no obvious driving force for the price difference [6] Alumina - The operating production capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both the industry inventory and the exchange warehouse receipts continue to increase. The pattern of oversupply is difficult to change. There is a certain degree of reluctance to sell in the spot market, and the decline of the index has slowed down and is gradually approaching the cash loss in Shanxi and Henan. However, the price of ore has become more flexible, and there is a small amount of room for cost reduction. Before large-scale production cuts are implemented, alumina is expected to operate weakly with limited room for rebound [7] Zinc - Fed officials have made hawkish statements, leading to a widespread decline in the overseas equity market. Long positions in the non-ferrous metals sector have accelerated their exit. The price of Shanghai zinc has retraced to the 5-day moving average, erasing all the gains since November and failing to effectively break through the upper limit of the bottom consolidation range. The LME zinc inventory has continued to increase slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 159,600 tons. The divergence in inventory trends between the domestic and international markets has been temporarily corrected, and there is limited room for further expansion of the price difference between the domestic and international markets. The TC of both domestic and overseas mines has decreased simultaneously, and the zinc price has declined significantly, putting pressure on the profits of domestic smelters. Production cuts by some smelters have gradually been implemented. The support level for the rebound of Shanghai zinc is currently seen at the 20-day moving average [8] Lead - The price of lead is relatively high, and downstream procurement has significantly weakened. Smelters are actively resuming production, leading to a weakening of the fundamentals. Long funds have taken profits at high prices, and the net outflow of funds from the weighted Shanghai lead contract exceeded 100 million yuan during the day. Shanghai lead felt significant pressure near the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton. The upcoming launch of energy storage orders and new national standard electric vehicles, along with the reduction in the tax exemption for new energy vehicles next year, have temporarily improved the consumption expectation of lead. However, as the weather gets colder, the orders of some battery enterprises have weakened, and the operating rate has declined, providing insufficient support for the high lead price. The supply of scrap batteries and lead concentrates remains tight. Considering the cost support, Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Tin - The price fluctuation of Shanghai tin increased during the night session on Friday. After the main contract rebounded from the MA10 moving average and 288,000 yuan, it recovered the decline and fluctuated above 290,000 yuan. The social inventory of tin according to Steel Union increased by 646 tons to 7,934 tons last week, and the SMM social inventory increased by 410 tons to 7,443 tons. The tin market still needs to pay attention to changes in domestic funds. The uncertainty of the resumption rhythm of Dibang and the efficiency of the capacity rectification of Indonesia's天马 has led the market to focus on the tight supply situation last week. Wait for today's social inventory data. Long-term high-level short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] Iron Ore - The futures price of iron ore rebounded slightly last week. On the supply side, the global shipment volume is slightly stronger than the same period last year. The Simandou iron ore mine has officially started production, but the short-term production capacity that can be released is limited. The volume of iron ore arriving at domestic ports is at a high level for the same period, and the port inventory continues to show an increasing trend. There are some structural changes in the inventory of Australian iron ore. On the demand side, the demand for steel in the off-season has declined, and the loss situation of steel mills has worsened. Although the iron ore production rebounded last week, there is still room for production cuts in the future. At the macro level, many important events have been implemented and priced in, and the short-term impact on the futures price is weakening. The market has started to price in the reality of a marginal loosening of the iron ore supply-demand situation. It is expected that the price of iron ore will fluctuate [14] Coke - The price fluctuated during the day. The fourth round of price increases for coking coal was fully implemented this week. The profitability of coking enterprises is still average, and the daily production has decreased slightly. The coke inventory has decreased slightly. Currently, downstream enterprises are purchasing on a small scale based on demand, resulting in a slight reduction in inventory. The purchasing willingness of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant. The iron ore production has returned to a high level, and the demand for raw materials remains resilient. The profit level of the steel industry is average, and there is a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures price of coke is at a premium, and the price is expected to fluctuate [15] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly. The spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices showed a mixed trend. The terminal inventory increased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly month-on-month, and the inventory at the production end increased slightly. Safety inspections have been carried out in major coal-producing regions. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant. The iron ore production has returned to a high level, and the demand for raw materials remains resilient. The profit level of the steel industry is average, and there is a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures price of coke is at a premium, and the futures price of coking coal is at a discount to the Mongolian coal price. The market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in major coking coal-producing regions. The price is expected to fluctuate [1

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It points out that most commodities are in a state of price fluctuation and supply - demand adjustment, with many facing uncertain factors such as geopolitical risks, policy changes, and seasonal demand variations. Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices fluctuated last week. Geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela supported prices, but the Russian port's resumption of loading reduced the impact. There is a risk of price decline in the medium - term due to increasing supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year. Attention should be paid to the impact of Russian oil sanctions and the release of Venezuelan risks [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The absolute price of fuel oil is still suppressed by the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by short - term export decline but may face a more relaxed supply pattern in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved due to factors such as unstable overseas refinery operations and strong demand in the fourth - quarter shipping season [20]. - **Asphalt**: The poor shipment volume has falsified the "14th Five - Year Plan" end - of - year rush - work demand expectation, and the demand is weaker than last year. The inventory de - stocking is slowing down, and the fundamentals are bearish in the long - term [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Import supply is tight. The improvement of butane dehydrogenation device profitability and cold weather have increased demand, leading to a decline in refinery and port storage rates. LPG is expected to be in a slightly strong upward trend [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold and silver prices dropped significantly on Friday. After the end of the US government shutdown, the market is waiting for economic data. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts. Precious metals are in a high - level oscillation platform, waiting for new drivers [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices first declined and then rose on the night of last Friday. The market trading theme is unclear, waiting for US economic indicators and domestic demand. Short - term high - position short orders can be traded near 88,000 yuan, and copper prices are in a state of oscillation [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum prices dropped on Friday. The long - term supply - demand situation has potential, but the short - term fundamentals are stable. The oscillation - upward trend has not been broken, and attention should be paid to capital movements [5]. - **Zinc**: Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a decline in the equity market and a large - scale exit of long - position funds in the non - ferrous sector. LME zinc inventory is rising slightly, and domestic refinery profits are under pressure. The support for the decline of Shanghai zinc is seen at the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Lead**: High lead prices have weakened downstream procurement, and refineries are resuming production. Although there are short - term factors to stimulate consumption, the support for high prices is insufficient. Considering cost support, Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: The amplitude of Shanghai tin increased on the night of last Friday. The inventory of tin has increased. The market is waiting for the inventory data. Long - term high - position short orders can be held near 295,000 yuan [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The tender price of a large northern steel mill is stable. Iron - water production has rebounded, and the output of manganese silicon has slightly decreased. The price has strong bottom support [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The tender price of a large northern steel mill has increased slightly. Demand has resilience, and supply is at a high level. Due to the increase in cost, the price is expected to be more likely to rise [18]. - **Other Metals - Related Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of Baotai ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan to 21,000 yuan on Friday. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is unclear. It continues to fluctuate with aluminum prices [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern is difficult to change. The price is mainly in a weak operation with limited rebound space [7]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: Photovoltaic terminal demand is weak. Both upstream and downstream reduced production in November, and the actual improvement in supply - demand is limited. The price will continue to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is significantly reduced during the dry season, but the expected production reduction of organic silicon monomer enterprises may drag down demand. The price is under pressure at a high level and will continue to oscillate [12]. - **Benzene and Its Derivatives** - **Pure Benzene**: The overseas gasoline market is strong, and the price has rebounded, but the downstream profit is weak, and the sustainability of overseas demand is uncertain [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, with only a small expected increase in domestic supply and a weakened import increase expectation. The demand is stable [26]. - **Polyolefins** - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene is loose, and the demand is supported to some extent. The supply of polyethylene is stable, and the demand is weakening. The supply pressure of polypropylene is slightly increasing, and the market price is difficult to rise continuously [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda** - **PVC**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification has little impact. The cost has some support, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The supply is high, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to oscillate narrowly [28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The upstream cost has increased, and the price has weakened. The inventory pressure is still large, and the demand is insufficient, so it is in a weak operation [28]. - **PX and PTA**: Affected by the tight overseas aromatics market, the prices of PX and PTA have rebounded. There is still an expectation of industry production reduction, and the overseas demand sustainability needs to be observed [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output has slightly increased, and the port inventory has increased significantly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term, so a short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but the demand is expected to weaken. The demand for bottle - chip has decreased with the cooling weather, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The USDA report has a limited impact on the market. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The planting progress of new - season soybeans in South America is slow, and attention should be paid to the impact of La Niña. The domestic soybean meal will follow the short - term decline of US soybeans [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The USDA report has led to a decline in US soybean prices. The domestic price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has changed, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand of palm oil [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The USDA report is bearish for domestic rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased, and attention should be paid to the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the production and export of Canadian rapeseed [37]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price of domestic soybeans is strong, and the difference with imported soybeans has widened. Attention should be paid to the performance of the domestic soybean spot market [38]. - **Corn**: The USDA report is slightly bearish. Domestic corn imports are expected to continue, and the new - grain supply peak in the Northeast has not passed. The futures price is expected to decline [39]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The futures price of pigs shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The spot price has slightly decreased. In the long - term, there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing next year [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price has dropped rapidly. The trading logic has switched to the high - supply and low - demand situation, and short positions can be held [41]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report is bearish for US cotton. The domestic cotton purchase is almost over, and the new - cotton listing brings pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production estimate. The production expectation of Guangxi is relatively good [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term price is strong, but there may be inventory pressure in the long - term [44]. - **Wood**: The futures price is oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price has risen continuously, and the inventory has increased. The valuation is low, and there is an expectation of improvement in the long - term. The short - term upward space may be limited, and long positions should be held carefully [46]. Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate, and the 02 - contract is expected to reflect the pre - Spring Festival freight peak. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month fixed - cargo situation and supply - side changes [19]. - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated, and the futures index has declined. The economic data has slowed down, and the overseas situation has increased market uncertainty. The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors are still the mid - term focus, and attention should be paid to the style rotation of consumption and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price of treasury bonds is in a narrow - range oscillation. The market's reaction to economic data is flat. The structural differentiation continues, and changes in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE market is in a volatile situation. The price of raw material crude oil has declined, and PE follows the cost change. The downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid - demand support, leading to inventory reduction. There is no strong short - term driving force for continuous decline. The supply - side has some new situations, and medium - term supply - demand pressure needs attention [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2601 yesterday was 6899, with a daily decline of 0.99%. The trading volume was 342,532, and the position change was 15,690. The 01 - contract basis was - 79 (compared to - 98 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 75 (compared to - 62 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6820 yuan/ton, 6960 yuan/ton, and 7110 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, showing a slight decline compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - This week, the domestic PE market price fluctuated narrowly. The upstream crude oil price dropped slightly, and there was no unexpected positive news from the Sino - US negotiation. The overall maintenance loss increased this week, and the domestic supply pressure was slightly relieved. On the demand side, the demand for greenhouse films and mulch films showed signs of peaking and falling, and the overall transaction volume was limited [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material price decline causes PE to follow the cost change. The downstream rigid demand supports inventory reduction. The short - term continuous decline is not strongly driven, and the market is in a volatile state. The supply - side has some new device situations, and the short - term contradiction is not significant. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high - capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in US stocks will reignite the sentiment in the A-share market, and the market is expected to resume its upward movement on Wednesday, maintaining a volatile upward trend [17][19]. - For treasury bond futures, the profit-taking in the cash bond market is increasing, and investors should focus on structural opportunities. While the policy risk for going long on futures bonds has decreased, the potential for a continuous decline in treasury bond yields remains limited [20][21]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybeans in the US is rising, providing strong cost support for domestic soybean meal. The international sugar market is weak, while the domestic sugar market is relatively strong. The short - term trend of the oil and fat sector is slightly weak, and the corn market is experiencing increased supply and weakening prices [22][25][28]. - In the black metals sector, steel and ore prices are rising in succession, but the upside potential is limited. Coking coal and coke have support at the bottom but face resistance when rising. Iron ore prices are expected to be bearish at high levels [56][59][61]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals are experiencing a downward adjustment due to the easing of risk factors. Copper prices are waiting for a breakthrough opportunity as downstream acceptance is currently insufficient. Alumina prices are bottoming out with potential production cuts in the future [67][71][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the impact of sanctions on crude oil has been fully priced in, and the pressure of oversupply remains. The cost of asphalt provides no positive support, and the supply - demand situation is weakening on the margin [16]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: The sharp rise in US stocks will reignite the sentiment in the A - share market. Although the stock index pulled back on Tuesday, the market is expected to resume its upward movement on Wednesday [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips without chasing high prices. Consider cash - and - carry arbitrage by going long on IM\IC 2512 and short on ETFs. Buy call options on the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index, the STAR Market 50 Index, and the ChiNext Index on dips [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Investment Logic**: The profit - taking in the cash bond market is increasing. While the policy risk for going long on futures bonds has decreased, the potential for a continuous decline in treasury bond yields remains limited [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Consider shorting the inter - delivery spread or flattening the yield curve (TL - 3T) [22]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Investment Logic**: The upward movement of the US soybean market is driven by the improvement in the macro environment, but the international soybean supply pressure is still high. Domestic soybean meal prices have risen significantly due to cost factors, but the upside potential is limited [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of far - month contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [25]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: The international sugar market is facing increased production in major producing areas, with a weak fundamental outlook. In the domestic market, the suspension of imports of some pre - mixed powders and the start of sugar mill operations are expected to support prices in the short term [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term but may rebound in the short - term. The domestic market is expected to be strong in the short - term. Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [28][29]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Investment Logic**: The production and export growth of Malaysian palm oil in October has slowed down, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly. Domestic soybean oil is slightly accumulating inventory, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, providing some support for prices. The short - term trend of the oil and fat sector is slightly weak [30][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term. Consider going long on dips after the price stabilizes. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Investment Logic**: The supply of corn is increasing, and the price of the futures market is expected to be weak and volatile. The US corn market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the December CBOT corn futures on dips. Wait and see for the January contract. Wait for dips to go long on the May and July contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Live Pigs - **Investment Logic**: The short - term pressure on live pig supply has improved, but the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure remains. The price of live pigs is expected to face some downward pressure [37][38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. Peanuts - **Investment Logic**: The spot price of peanuts is falling, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. The new - season peanut quality is lower than last year, and the market is waiting for the supply to increase [40][41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the January and May contracts. Sell the PK601 - P - 7600 option [41]. Eggs - **Investment Logic**: The number of culled laying hens has increased, and the egg price has stabilized. The supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term [42][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out previous short positions and wait and see. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46]. Apples - **Investment Logic**: The quality of the new - season apples is poor, and the good - fruit rate is low. The cost of making apple warehouse receipts is high, and the inventory is expected to be lower than expected. The apple price has shown a strong trend recently, but the upward potential is limited [47][49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out previous long positions and wait and see. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Investment Logic**: The cotton purchase is at its peak, and the purchase price is stable. The demand side has not changed significantly. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have reached a preliminary consensus, and the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly strong [52][53]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to be range - bound. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly strong. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The demand for steel is gradually recovering, and the inventory is shifting from the factory to the social level. The price of coking coal is rising, providing support for steel prices. However, the high inventory of plate products and the slowdown in capital release in the fourth quarter still pose pressure on steel prices [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel price is expected to be slightly strong and volatile. Go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Wait and see for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The price of coking coal is strong, and the second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. The supply of coking coal is restricted by safety regulations, but the increase in imported Mongolian coal and the reduction in steel mill demand limit the upward potential of prices [59][60]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile at high levels. Close out long positions and consider going long on dips in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [61]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The domestic iron element inventory has been increasing since the third quarter, and the price of iron ore is expected to be bearish [62][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64]. Ferroalloys - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic sentiment is fading, and the supply - demand pressure in the ferroalloy market remains. The production of silicon iron and manganese silicon is still at a high level, while the demand is affected by steel production cuts [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider shorting as the supply - demand pressure persists. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell an out - of - the - money straddle option combination [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: The improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the expected cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict have reduced market risk aversion, leading to a downward adjustment in precious metal prices [67][69]. - **Trading Strategy**: The precious metal market may continue to adjust. Close out previous long positions and wait for a signal of the end of the correction. Aggressive investors can short with a stop - loss. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. Copper - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic sentiment has improved, and the supply of copper ore is facing more disruptions. The expected processing fee for next year is very low. The supply of electrolytic copper is relatively tight, but the downstream consumption is weak, and the acceptance of high prices is low [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips and beware of short - term pullbacks. Hold a long position in the inter - market spread. Consider a long position in the inter - delivery spread after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Wait and see for options [74]. Alumina - **Investment Logic**: The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the pressure is increasing as the downstream inventory build - up is completed. High - cost alumina producers may face more cost pressure, and future production cuts are expected. The price is currently bottoming out [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to bottom out in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [78][79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Investment Logic**: The global trade situation is easing, and the macro - economic sentiment is positive. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production is decreasing, and the domestic real estate completion area has shown a slight recovery. The medium - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to be strong [80][81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [82]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic outlook is improving, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The demand is resilient, and the low factory inventory supports the price. The short - term price of ADC12 is expected to remain firm [83][84]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of aluminum alloy is expected to be strong and volatile following the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Zinc - **Investment Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate market is tight, and the processing fee is decreasing. The supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to weaken as the peak season ends. The LME zinc price is relatively strong due to low inventory. The short - term trend is range - bound [85][87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out profitable long positions and wait and see. Consider shorting at high levels if the export volume is low. Consider a long position in SHFE zinc and a short position in LME zinc based on the export situation. Wait and see for options [87]. Lead - **Investment Logic**: Some lead - acid battery manufacturers are reducing production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead is expected to increase. The lead price may continue to decline as the supply increases and the demand enters the off - season [89][91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions and beware of the impact of capital on the lead price. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell an out - of - the - money call option [91]. Nickel - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic situation is favorable, but the supply - demand relationship is loose. The nickel price is expected to remain within a range [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Investment Logic**: The impact of sanctions on crude oil has been fully priced in, and the pressure of oversupply remains [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Investment Logic and Trading Strategy**: Each product has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, asphalt has no positive cost support and weakening supply - demand on the margin; PVC is in a weak and volatile state; glass prices are rising due to improved sales and production [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The trading strategies for each product vary, including shorting, reducing long positions, and waiting and seeing [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - After the Politburo meeting on July 25 fell short of expectations, commodity sentiment cooled down, and today it hit rock - bottom. Most energy and chemical products, except for PVC and two types of rubber, mainly fluctuated with market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in sentiment and the trend of crude oil on the cost side [3][4] - Trump's remarks pressuring Russia briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the supply pressure in the third quarter has soared. The North American peak season is coming to an end, and the off - season is approaching. The supply - demand pressure for crude oil will gradually emerge [5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: Trump's remarks briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the supply - demand pressure will gradually appear. The North American peak season is ending, and the off - season is approaching, with the United States' refined oil inventories increasing for three consecutive weeks and crude oil inventories starting to accumulate [5] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It rose and then fell today, with intraday fluctuations. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle, and the short - term support is at the 526 level [5] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply start - up has increased, port inventories have continued to accumulate, total inventories are at a historically high level compared to the same period, actual demand has not improved, and new device production is approaching. The fundamental driving force remains bearish [8] - Technical Analysis: Short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It continued to fall today and closed at a new low. The short - term pressure above is temporarily at the 7440 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [8] Rubber - Logic: Precipitation disturbances in Hainan and Southeast Asia postponed the supply increase, but a new typhoon is moving north, and supply increase is a relatively certain path. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level start - up is difficult to sustain. The current rubber inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the fundamental driving force remains bearish [12] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term decline on the daily level, short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today and hit a new short - term low. The pressure above is at the 15120 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Supply device start - up has increased, synthetic rubber production has significantly rebounded. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level start - up is difficult to sustain. The cost of butadiene has some support due to low port inventories, but the medium - term fundamental pressure on synthetic rubber remains high [17] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today and hit a new short - term low. The pressure above is at the 11950 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [17] PX - Logic: Polyester start - up continues to decline, demand expectations are pessimistic, supply start - up has rebounded, and supply - demand is weak. The cost of crude oil is expected to decline significantly, and it mainly fluctuates with crude oil [20] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today for downward correction, and the short - term structure is unclear, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [20] PTA - Logic: Short - term supply - demand changes are not significant, inventory levels are not high, and short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. However, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline significantly, and it mainly fluctuates with crude oil [22] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today for downward correction, and the short - term structure is unclear, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22] PP - Logic: Downstream demand is sluggish, supply - side start - up fluctuates slightly, but previously shut - down devices will gradually restart, and new production capacity will be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to remain. Inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [24] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fluctuated within the day today, and the hourly cycle is close to breaking through but has not been confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [24] Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply is at a high level compared to the same period, downstream demand is weak, short - term arrivals are normal, port inventories continue to accumulate, and overseas Iranian device start - up is stable. The short - term fundamentals are average. Attention should be paid to cost and recent sentiment drivers [29] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term decline/shock on the daily level, short - term decline structure. It fell with reduced positions today, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29] PVC - Logic: Supply has increased, demand remains sluggish during the off - season, inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force remains bearish. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [31] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term upward structure on the daily level, short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It broke through downward with increased positions today, and the short - term trend reversal was confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Start - up has slightly decreased, demand is weak, port inventories fluctuate at a low level, and there are both short - term low - inventory and medium - term inventory - accumulation expectations. The fundamental driving force is weak. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [33] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today, and the hourly - level structure is unclear, but the 15 - minute level confirmed a decline. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [33] Plastic - Logic: Shut - down devices gradually restarted in late July, start - up has increased, downstream overall start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the delivery logic as the 09 basis weakens. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [37] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, shock structure on the hourly level. It fluctuated within the day today, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It has followed market sentiment recently. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]