一方面，融资端改革的关键，是从"规模扩张"走向"精准包容"，其核心在于全面提升资本市场的包容性 与覆盖面。 ■ 安 宁 10月28日正式发布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》明确提 出，"提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性，健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能"。这一重要阐述为下 一阶段资本市场深化改革指明了方向、确立了行动指南。 投资与融资，是资本市场的一体两面，相辅相成，缺一不可。融资的可持续性，依赖于投资的可回报 性。唯有坚定不移地深化资本市场改革，着力健全投融资相协调的机制，才能真正发挥资本市场作 为"国民经济晴雨表"和"资源优化配置平台"的核心功能，为中国式现代化建设注入不竭的金融动能。 去年9月份，中央金融办、中国证监会联合印发《关于推动中长期资金入市的指导意见》，重点从三个 方面推动中长期资金进入资本市场，解决当前资本市场中长期资金总量不足、结构不优、引领作用发挥 不够充分等问题，增强资本市场内在稳定性。 今年以来，改革成效已逐步显现。以保险资金、养老金为代表的中长期资金在A股市场持续净流入，成 为市场稳健运行的重要支撑。证监会数据显示，截至今年8月底，各类中长期资金合计持 ...

【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天冲高回落，沪指 4000 点得而复失 证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 29 日 星期三 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 上证指数分时图 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3988.22 | -0.22% | -8.72 | | | 深证成指 | 13430.10 | -0.44% | -59.30 | | | 沪深 300 | | -0.51% | -24.05 | 4691.97 | | 创业板 | 3229.58 | -0.15% | -4.88 | | | 科创 50 | 1471.73 | -0.84% | -12.48 | | | 北证 50 | 1451.57 | -1.20% | -17.59 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the clear deployment of capital market development in the "15th Five-Year Plan," aiming to serve the real economy and promote high-quality economic development [1] - The plan highlights the importance of deepening reforms to enhance the multi-tiered capital market system, improving institutional inclusiveness and adaptability [1][2] - Capital markets are expected to play a crucial role in supporting the modernization of the industrial system and advancing high-level technological self-reliance [1] Group 2 - The proposal includes enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, focusing on coordinated investment and financing functions [2] - Experts suggest that reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market should be leveraged to create more suitable listing standards for emerging industries [2][3] - The construction of an integrated investment and financing ecosystem will be a key focus during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2] Group 3 - The investment side will see solid progress in public fund reforms and the promotion of long-term investment products and risk management tools [3] - Policies are expected to enhance the quality of listed companies and encourage higher dividend payouts, thereby supporting wealth preservation and growth for residents [3] Group 4 - The proposal advocates for the active development of direct financing through equity and bond markets, as well as the steady growth of futures, derivatives, and asset securitization [4] - Experts recommend optimizing the issuance and listing systems to support a comprehensive equity financing service system covering the entire lifecycle of enterprises [4] Group 5 - The establishment of a well-functioning capital market is deemed essential for efficient resource allocation and includes various financial instruments beyond just the stock market [6][7] - A multi-dimensional capital market is characterized as an efficient resource allocator, a balanced community of interests, a comprehensive risk manager, and a smooth wealth converter [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of deepening investment and financing reforms to strengthen the stability of China's capital market, highlighting the need for high-quality listed companies and a robust long-term investment ecosystem [1]. Group 1: Capital Market Stability - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) stresses the cultivation of high-quality listed companies and the establishment of a long-term investment market ecosystem to enhance market stability [1]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the resilience and risk resistance of China's capital market have significantly improved, achieving reasonable growth in quantity and effective enhancement in quality [1]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to further deepen investment and financing reforms through various measures, including refinancing, mergers and acquisitions, and optimizing long-term funding assessment mechanisms [1]. Group 2: High-Quality Listed Companies - High-quality listed companies are considered the cornerstone of stable capital market operations, with various regulatory measures introduced to promote their development [1]. - Initiatives such as the "Science and Technology Innovation Board" reforms and improved corporate governance have led to enhanced quality and investment value of listed companies [1]. - Over the past five years, listed companies have distributed a total of 10.6 trillion yuan in dividends and buybacks, representing an increase of over 80% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. Group 3: Long-Term Investment and Fund Management - Long-term funds are viewed as stabilizers for the capital market, with public fund reforms and initiatives to facilitate the entry of social security and insurance funds into the market [2][3]. - As of August this year, various long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market capitalization, a 32% increase compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - The ongoing reforms aim to create a more rational investment environment focused on long-term value creation, which is expected to reduce market volatility and enhance stability [3]. Group 4: Mechanisms for Market Stability - The construction of long-term mechanisms for market stability is crucial, especially in response to external shocks causing market fluctuations [4]. - A collaborative approach involving policy support, funding, and market mechanisms has begun to take shape, aiming to enhance the inherent stability of the capital market [4]. - Future efforts may include establishing diversified funding sources and upgrading temporary arrangements into institutional frameworks to promote long-term stability [4].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a positive sentiment with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark, reflecting investor confidence and potential for further upward movement, supported by regulatory policies and long-term capital inflows [3][5][6]. Market Performance - On October 28, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 4000 points, reaching a high of 4010.73 before closing at 3988.22, down 0.22%. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw declines, with total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing at 2.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 200 billion yuan from the previous day [3][6]. - The market's fluctuations are attributed to profit-taking behaviors in popular sectors and high valuations, with a potential shift in market style expected in the fourth quarter [3][7]. Regulatory Environment - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the importance of stability and balance in asset allocation, indicating that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are undergoing continuous revaluation, enhancing their investment appeal [5]. - The regulatory framework is seen as supportive for long-term capital, with plans to introduce a refinancing framework and encourage companies to improve governance and increase shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [5][6]. Sector Analysis - There is a notable divergence in sector performance, with high-growth sectors like artificial intelligence and solid-state batteries significantly outperforming the broader market over the past six months. However, the fourth quarter is traditionally a time for style rotation in the A-share market [8][9]. - Analysts predict that while high-growth sectors may face increased volatility due to high valuations, low-valuation sectors such as financial stocks are expected to attract more capital in the fourth quarter [10][11]. Investment Strategy - The market is anticipated to maintain a "slow bull" trend with increased volatility, and structural differentiation is expected to remain prominent. Investors are advised to focus on fundamentally strong companies and avoid chasing high valuations [9][12]. - The potential for a shift towards low-valuation sectors is highlighted, with financial and cyclical stocks possibly leading the market if supportive policies or capital inflows materialize [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Chairman Wu Qing emphasized the need to deepen comprehensive reforms in investment and financing to enhance market inclusiveness and attractiveness, positioning these reforms as a key driver for the long-term development of the capital market [1][2]. Group 1: Reform Directions - The focus is on deepening investment and financing reforms, which includes advancing sector reforms to solidify the internal stability of the market and expanding high-level openness to enhance the capital market's inclusiveness, adaptability, and competitiveness [2][3]. - The meeting outlined two main paths for sector reform: initiating deeper reforms in the ChiNext board to set more suitable listing standards for emerging industries and continuously promoting the high-quality development of the Beijing Stock Exchange [3]. Group 2: Long-term Capital and Market Stability - Efforts are being made to enhance the role of long-term capital as a stabilizer in the market, with reforms in public funds and insurance capital to better match funding with enterprise growth cycles [4]. - The introduction of a refinancing framework is proposed to simplify the process for quality enterprises to obtain funding, allowing them to issue in phases based on their needs [4]. Group 3: QFII Mechanism and Investor Protection - The Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) mechanism is being optimized to expand its investment scope and improve operational efficiency, which is expected to attract more long-term foreign capital into China's quality assets [5]. - A comprehensive policy document on protecting small and medium investors has been released, marking a new phase in investor protection that aims to enhance trust and security in the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Financial Street Forum highlighted the importance of comprehensive reforms in the capital market to promote high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, signaling a clear policy direction for enhancing market confidence and stability [2]. Group 1: Deepening Reforms - The focus is on constructing a multi-tiered capital market that better serves the development of new productive forces, with plans to reform the ChiNext board and improve listing standards for emerging industries [3]. - The development of the Beijing Stock Exchange is emphasized, along with the introduction of a refinancing framework to enhance the capital market's efficiency in supporting technological innovation [3]. - Analysts believe these reforms will significantly increase the capital market's capacity to support high-level technological self-reliance and innovation [3]. Group 2: Strengthening Market Stability - The concept of "strengthening fundamentals" is central, with specific requirements for listed companies to improve governance and increase shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [6]. - Over the past five years, listed companies have returned over 10.6 trillion yuan to shareholders, which is 2.07 times the amount raised through IPOs and refinancing, indicating a shift towards a more balanced investment environment [6]. - The emphasis on shareholder returns is seen as a way to enhance the resilience and risk management capabilities of the A-share market [6]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Focus - The promotion of long-term capital investment is a key focus, with reforms aimed at encouraging institutional investors to adopt long-term investment strategies [7]. - The introduction of long-term performance assessments for public funds and pension funds is expected to bring in sustainable capital, supporting a stable upward trend in the stock market [7]. - Establishing a market ecosystem that favors long-term investments is viewed as essential for optimizing the capital supply structure and enhancing market stability [7]. Group 4: Enhancing Investor Protection - The upcoming release of guidelines for protecting small and medium investors reflects a commitment to enhancing the attractiveness and competitiveness of the capital market [8]. - Strengthening investor protection mechanisms is seen as crucial for stabilizing market expectations and boosting investor confidence [8]. - The guidelines aim to create a comprehensive safety net for investors, addressing all stages of investment [8]. Group 5: Opening Up the Market - The speech indicates a commitment to high-level institutional openness, with ongoing efforts to align domestic markets with international standards [9]. - Recent advancements in cross-border investment mechanisms and the management of foreign investors are highlighted as steps to enhance international competitiveness [9]. - The overall goal is to create a capital market that supports technological innovation, industrial upgrades, and wealth growth while being responsive to global market dynamics [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark, reflecting improved market sentiment and investor confidence, driven by progress in US-China trade negotiations and supportive regulatory policies [2][4]. Market Performance - As of the morning close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, closing at 4005 points, with a total trading volume of 1.36 trillion yuan, a decrease of 216.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - The index's ability to maintain above 4000 points is seen as a psychological barrier that could attract more capital inflow and support future market trends [4]. Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced measures to optimize the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, enhancing access and operational efficiency for foreign investors [2]. - Future plans include the introduction of a refinancing framework to broaden support for mergers and acquisitions, alongside encouraging listed companies to improve governance and increase shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [3]. Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with expectations of continued upward movement in the index, albeit with increased volatility [5]. - There is a cautionary note regarding high valuations in certain sectors, particularly technology and semiconductors, which may lead to profit-taking behavior among investors [3][4]. Economic Context - The market's recent performance is influenced by global economic conditions, including expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the possibility of a meeting between US and Chinese leaders at the APEC summit, which could ease geopolitical tensions [5]. - The overall market sentiment is supported by a marginally easing domestic policy environment, which is expected to bolster risk appetite among investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - The speech by the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Wu Qing, at the 2025 Financial Street Forum outlines a comprehensive plan for the high-quality development of the capital market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and sets forth four key reform tasks to better serve economic and social development as well as the construction of a financial powerhouse [1] Group 1: Multi-layered Market System Reform - Wu Qing emphasized the need to deepen the reform of market segments to enhance the inclusiveness and coverage of the multi-layered market system, responding to market expectations for institutional inclusiveness and financing efficiency [2] - The construction of a multi-layered capital market system, including the main board, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, Beijing Stock Exchange, and the National Equities Exchange and Quotations, has accelerated during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, forming a mature system [2] - The CSRC announced the "1+6" policy measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in June, with plans to deepen reforms in the Growth Enterprise Market and improve the differentiated listing, information disclosure, and trading systems of the New Third Board [2] Group 2: Financial Support for Innovation - The continuous improvement of the multi-layered capital market will promote high-quality development and better serve the real economy, providing a complete financial support chain for enterprises at different stages and in various industries [3] - The CSRC plans to introduce a refinancing framework to broaden support channels for mergers and acquisitions and encourage listed companies to enhance governance and increase dividends and buybacks [3] Group 3: Public Fund and Long-term Investment Reform - Wu Qing proposed solid progress in public fund reforms, promoting long-term investment products and risk management tools to create a "long money, long investment" market ecosystem [3][4] - Institutional investors should prioritize investor interests, optimize assessment mechanisms, and enhance professional management capabilities to build a healthy and orderly market ecosystem [4] Group 4: Opening Up Capital Markets - Wu Qing stated the intention to steadily expand high-level institutional opening-up, integrating capital and systems on a larger and deeper scale [5] - The introduction of the "Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor" (QFI) system optimization plan aims to provide a more transparent and efficient environment for foreign investors, enhancing the internationalization and marketization of China's financial market [6] Group 5: Investor Protection and Market Integrity - The CSRC aims to enhance the quality and effectiveness of investor rights protection and establish a long-term market stabilization mechanism while cracking down on various illegal activities such as financial fraud and insider trading [7] - The CSRC released opinions on strengthening the protection of small and medium investors, focusing on enhancing fairness in trading environments and promoting rational investment [7]

Market Overview - On October 27, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3999.07 points, approaching the 4000-point mark, marking a new high in over a decade [3] - The A-share market experienced a strong trading atmosphere with a total transaction amount exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating significant investor activity [3][4] Sector Performance - The current A-share rally is characterized by a "technology bull" market, with technology stocks experiencing a widespread surge [5] - The high-bandwidth memory sector led the gains, with stocks like Jiangbolong rising over 19% and several others hitting the daily limit [3] Investment Trends - The "long money, long investment" policy framework is being established, which is expected to support a sustained "slow bull" market in A-shares [8] - The public fund management scale has seen significant growth, with the net asset value of public funds reaching 36.25 trillion yuan, a 3.36% increase [9] IPO Activity - The IPO process for technology companies has accelerated, with several firms like Moer Thread and Muxi Co. quickly advancing through the IPO stages [7] - The introduction of the "1+6" policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has enhanced the inclusivity and adaptability for quality tech firms [7] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current technology stock rally is likely to continue, driven by strong capital inflows into innovative sectors [6] - The market is expected to transition back to a performance-driven structure as key economic events stabilize [4]