高低切
Search documents
北京X报,憋说话
表舅是养基大户· 2025-03-24 13:33
下午14点20反弹之前,市场一度跌出了股X的味道,微盘股跌近6%,中证2000跌超4%,全市场90%以上的个股下跌,此前的高位股,大面积跌停。 有人找了一张图出来,上周四,微盘股破历史新高,紧接着,北京X报发了一篇报道, 小市值股票也有春天 ,然后周五中证2000就跌超2%,再接着就是 今天的一度崩盘,堪称精准的反指。 但大家可能有所不知的是,这篇报道的记者,上个月的2月18日,还写了一篇报道,叫 大型银行股持续走强是大势所趋 ,不得不服啊,四大行恰 恰好就在当日,股价见顶,随后整整跌了1个月。 说回正经的,聊聊今天市场实际的情况,一是小微盘开盘大跌的原因,二是下午反弹的驱动力。 从开盘崩的原因来看 ,有很多,最值得观察的一个指标,其实是两融数据——上周五融资净卖出-141亿,是春节以来的第二高,也是春节后, 唯二净卖出超过100亿的。 而春节以后净卖出最多的一天,是2月28日,当天中证2000同样大跌超4%,微盘股指数跌近3%,而原因,我们当时在《 今天大跌的原因 》讲到 过,主要是外围环境的变化——当时美国宣布要对我们加第二次税,而我们目前面临的局面,是4月2日,下周,新的对等关税即将生效。 而从下午反弹 ...
大跌的原因又找到了
表舅是养基大户· 2025-03-21 13:28
抱歉,懒得琢磨了,只能取这么个被XX报污名化的标题了,不过今天市场确实挺惨的,5000多只个股,80%以上是跌的,但是,实际赚钱效 应,可能比个股的涨跌还惨。 一方面,市场一共886只投资A股的股票型ETF, 跌幅中位数-1.7% ,上涨的只有27个,占比3%左右,其中2亿以上,相对还算活跃的产品,只有 11个,凤毛麟角; 另一方面,港股相关的ETF,更是全军覆没, 跌幅中位数在-2%以上 。 有个开玩笑的说法,这轮之所以下跌,特别是港股领跌,是因为某非金融区的大V, 峰哥 ,在本周二买入了恒生科技,而行情也在买入当日见 顶,最近三天恒生科技累计下跌近8%。 有些人可能对他不熟悉,他是靠搞草根IP,拍视频走红的,比如深入非洲和东南亚贫民窟,记录深圳的三和大神等,下图,真的会玩梗。 | 峰哥亡命天涯 曾 ■》 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5小时前 来自 iPhone 13 Pro Max | | | | | | | 心态崩了,满仓挨断头铡了,从即日起无限期停止更新股市内容。等下一个天亮! | | | 000 | | | | | 第出 描单 | 持仓 | | | | C ...
解读一下中国平安
表舅是养基大户· 2025-03-20 13:34
今天A股继续高低切,连续两天了,红利领涨,成长下跌,港股那边跌幅也比较大,恒生科技跌超3%,上周大涨的周五晚上,我们在《 牛市的 真正底气 》里提到过,不管是消费刺激,还是降准降息,都炒的有点过了,这周都呈现短期证伪的态势,回吐收益。 除了前两天的小米和腾讯,还有一个比较重要的公司, 中国平安,昨晚公布了年报 ,净利润同比大增47.8%,但今天平安的A股跌3%,港股平 安跌5%,不过我觉得股价下跌也很正常——今天A股保险股整体就跌了3.3%左右,所以不是平安财报本身的锅,而是市场原因,且市场变化的 背后,可能在于,上周五因为炒降准降息,保险股暴涨了6.6%,本来就是瞎涨,所以吐一点回去,也很正常。 简单聊聊平安的年报吧,平安在中国金融系统里,确实是比较特殊的存在——作为一个市场化程度比较高,考核比较严格的公司,势必导致其业 务层面,对环境变化就会很敏感,往往会及时做出相应的变化,这就是我们研究它的价值。 放心, 本文绝非平安软文。 本账号也永远不会接保险公司或者保险产品的广子,大家可放心食用,欢迎分享,绝对不同于其他纯粹的财务分析。 ...... 我们分析平安的财报,不必着眼于平安本身的营收啊、利润啊之类的, ...
读研报 | 如何理解当下的行情扩散?
中泰证券资管· 2025-03-18 09:28
Core Viewpoint - The recent market dynamics indicate a shift from a technology-dominated landscape to a more diversified performance across various sectors, including consumer goods, retail, textiles, agriculture, and light manufacturing, suggesting discussions around "market diffusion" or "high-low rotation" are increasing [1] Group 1: Calendar Effect - The calendar effect is a common explanation for the market's behavior, with reports indicating that March to April serves as a transition period where market styles shift from clear trends to a more balanced performance across various styles [2] - Specifically, from early February to early March, small-cap and high-beta sectors tend to outperform, while larger, low-valuation stocks struggle [2] - As the market moves into late April, with earnings reports being disclosed, the focus will shift towards high-performing stocks with strong earnings certainty [2] Group 2: Incremental Capital Changes - Reports suggest that the "high-low rotation" phenomenon is partly driven by incremental capital changes, with consumer-focused and dividend-style funds showing signs of increasing allocations to consumer sectors [3] - Additionally, there are indications of portfolio adjustments among dividend-style funds, while low-risk capital is being allocated to low-positioned cyclical large-cap growth stocks due to favorable cost-benefit considerations [3] - However, there is no significant evidence of technology growth funds switching out of their positions [3] Group 3: Market Pricing Dynamics - Changes in market pricing are also being observed, with reports noting that credit growth is weak, and consumer activity is seasonally declining post-holiday [3] - The stock market appears to be pricing in optimistic data while underpricing negative data, possibly due to prior pricing of pessimistic data and expectations of new growth cycles driven by policies and emerging industries like AI [3] Group 4: Global Perspective - Some analysts suggest that the changes in the A-share market should be viewed in a global context, indicating a shift in global investor focus from the U.S. and information technology to other sectors [4] - The rising correlation between the CSI 300 and European markets suggests that global investors are seeking new opportunities beyond traditional tech narratives [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The diverse explanations for market behavior reflect a warming market sentiment, indicating that the market is no longer dominated by a single sector, which may lead to more investment opportunities [5] - This environment is favorable for investors skilled in identifying alpha, providing a platform for previously held insights to materialize [5]
轧空?
Datayes· 2025-02-27 12:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in Xiaomi's stock price, highlighting the significant role of foreign capital in driving the stock's performance, while domestic investors have been reducing their holdings [1][5]. Group 1: Xiaomi Stock Analysis - Xiaomi's stock experienced a sharp fluctuation, rising by 4% to a peak of 58.7 HKD before dropping by 8% to a low of 51.4 HKD [1]. - Over the past month, foreign banks like HSBC and Citibank have been the largest net buyers of Xiaomi shares, acquiring over 200 million shares combined, while domestic investors have sold approximately 52.5 million shares [1]. - The current short interest in Xiaomi remains high, with 349 million shares still shorted, indicating a potential short squeeze scenario as the stock price continues to rise [1]. Group 2: Market Trends and Sector Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.26% and 0.52%, respectively [8]. - The total market turnover reached 20,422 billion CNY, an increase of 722 billion CNY from the previous day, indicating heightened trading activity [8]. - The consumer sector, particularly food and beverage stocks, saw significant gains, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up [8]. - The financing balance in the A-share market has increased significantly, reaching a total of 1,910.208 billion CNY, the highest since September 2021, reflecting strong bullish sentiment [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The top ten industries for financing purchases include electronics, computers, machinery, and electric power equipment, while non-bank financials and electronics lead in short selling [6]. - The market's preference for high-growth sectors has been bolstered by positive news regarding AI technology and significant investments from major companies like Alibaba [6]. - The upcoming "Two Sessions" in China is expected to bring policies aimed at boosting consumption, which could further influence market dynamics [8].