yd.zhang@htisec.com ny.liu@htisec.com [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 11 Feb 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 黄金不怕"虚火"——时事点评 Gold is Immune to Speculative Bubbles 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 刘念芸 Nianyun Liu [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 一、交易性虚火已退，拥挤交易降温，黄金长线配置逻辑不变。 投机情绪降温。前期市场投机交易处于过热当中，一月底以来 COMEX 黄金期货的 RSI 指数已处于 70 以上的超买区 间，并在 1 月 29 日达到 89.46 的高点，自 1 月 30 日沃什获新任美联储主席提名后，市场将其降息加缩表的政策主张 解读为相对鹰派，导致部分资产回吐宽松交易预期，黄金此前估值偏贵，且仓位较为拥挤，首当其冲受到影响，单 日大幅回调逾 1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that individual investors are increasingly buying gold to hedge against global risks, with significant inflows into gold ETFs in January, reaching a historical monthly high of $19 billion, which has contributed to market volatility and potential short-term selling pressure [2] - Gold prices have shown a notable increase, with a 14% rise in January, and the total assets under management in gold ETFs reaching a record high of $669 billion, reflecting a 20% month-over-month increase [2] - The volatility in gold prices is exacerbated by the nature of ETF investments, which are more sensitive to market dynamics compared to physical demand, leading to tactical buying and selling behaviors among investors [2][3] Group 2 - Long-term demand for gold is expected to remain strong, as emerging central banks are likely to increase their gold holdings to diversify reserves, preventing a market downturn from becoming a bear market [3] - The recent price corrections in gold are viewed as healthy adjustments following significant price increases, with recommendations to buy on dips, and a revised year-end target price for gold set between $6,100 and $6,300, indicating at least a 20% potential increase from current levels [3] - Recent trading patterns show fluctuations in gold prices, with a notable drop to $4,988.6 before stabilizing and rebounding, suggesting potential for breaking out of current trading ranges, particularly with upcoming non-farm payroll data [4]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 2026年开年，个人投资者照搬全球央行的操作手册大举囤积黄金，以此对冲世界秩序分裂带来的风险。 投资者加大了实物金条和金币的购买力度，但更亮眼的是全球黄金ETF的资金流入——1月流入规模创下月度历史新高，这既推动 了贵金属市场的剧烈波动，也意味着黄金短期内仍可能面临更多抛售压力。 全球黄金投资需求 鲁卡娅表示，ETF资金流"比金条和金币需求波动性更大"，因为配置黄金ETF的投资者倾向于"战术性配置、快速入场"，而购买金 条金币的投资者追求的是"长期价值储藏"。 她指出，正因如此，ETF投资者对价格和当前市场动态更为敏感："如果金价连续几周回调，他们就会卖出黄金"，因此金价上涨越 依赖ETF资金，波动就会越大。 这或许可以解释近期金价的剧烈波动。纽约商品交易所4月交割黄金期货合约在1月29日创下5354.80美元/盎司的历史收盘新高，随 后在1月30日和2月2日的两个交易日暴跌约13%，一度跌破关键的5000美元关口，目前已收复大部分失地，周二报5031美元，下跌 1%。 鲁卡娅表示，即便金价再度回调并引发资金平仓（尤其是亚洲投资者），长期来看全球投资需 ...

专注于微型黄金白银矿业公司的对冲基金Myrmikan Capital创始人Daniel Oliver认为，黄金市场正处于大规模牛市的早期阶段，长期金价可能升 至1.2万美元。他指出，矿业股即便经历强劲上涨后仍被低估，而黄金在专业投资者和国内机构中的持有比例仍然极低。 Oliver在一份近期的客户报告中表示，美联储将陷入货币印刷陷阱，无法同时降息和缩减资产负债表。他预计特朗普提名的下任美联储主席凯文· 沃什将被迫转向量化宽松政策，尽管沃什此前曾批评美联储持有债券。 这一观点发表之际，金价周二在5000美元关口附近徘徊。金价周一多次突破、失守并再次突破这一水平，其涨势在很大程度上反映了市场对美元 和美国资产信心的动摇。 Oliver的分析聚焦于美国债务结构的脆弱性及其对黄金价格的长期影响。他认为私募股权处于即将到来的美元崩溃的中心位置，这将推高融资成 本并驱赶外国资本。 黄金牛市的三个阶段 Oliver将黄金牛市划分为三个阶段。第一阶段始于2022年，当时美国冻结了俄罗斯的美元资产，吸引了成熟的黄金投资者入场。他认为国际资本 流动使美国金融机构"承载了疯狂的债务规模"。 第二阶段尚未开始，将反映市场意识到美联储无 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing bull market for gold and the uncertain future for silver, emphasizing the differences between the two precious metals [1] - It highlights the importance of monitoring U.S. economic data, particularly non-farm payroll and CPI, as well as geopolitical developments and inventory adjustments in major exchanges [1] - Current gold market is in the fifth phase of wide fluctuations, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high, with specific price levels for short-term and medium-term trading [1] Group 2 - Key short-term resistance levels for international gold are identified at $5090-5100, $5140-50, $5220-40, and $5350-60, with support levels at $4940-50 and $4820-30 [1] - For silver, a mid-term strategy should be based on previous articles and videos, with a recommendation for retail investors to reduce trading frequency [1] - The article provides specific price ranges for domestic gold, indicating a need for careful risk management and strategic entry points [1]

从资金净流入方面来看，上海金ETF(159830)近3天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得3.86亿元净流入，合计"吸金"4.02亿元。 【产品亮点】 紧密跟踪上海金指数相比多数黄金ETF主流费率0.6%/年，上海金ETF(159830)的管理费率+托管费率为"0.25%+0.05%"，处于市场费率较低档位。 【相关产品】 截至2026年2月9日 09:31，上海金ETF(159830)高开高走，成交额迅速走阔。 截至2月6日，上海金ETF(159830)最新份额创成立以来新高。 央行再出手！连续15个月增持黄金 中国央行黄金储备"十五连增"，1月环比增持4万盎司，增持节奏略有加快。国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为 33991亿美元，较2025年12月末上升412亿美元，升幅为1.23%。央行数据显示，中国1月末黄金储备报7419万盎司，12月末为7415万盎司，为连续第15个 月增持黄金。 【机构观点】 银河证券认为，不应将"美联储换帅"自动等同于市场趋势的大拐点，其政策如何影响美国经济的根本面才是美元定价的基石。一个由沃什领导的美联 储，或将开启央行角色的深刻转变：从金融 ...

贵金属价格继续反弹！ 北京时间周一早间，黄金、白银价格延续反弹走势。截至券商中国记者发稿，现货黄金涨0.44%报4988.6美元/ 盎司；现货白银涨超2%报79.69美元/盎司。上周五，白银价格大涨近10%，黄金涨近4%。 另外，美股股指期货涨幅扩大。截至券商中国发稿，标准普尔500指数期货上涨0.30%，纳指期货涨0.38%，道 指期货涨0.26%。 近期，贵金属市场经历了罕见的"过山车"行情，黄金、白银在暴涨后遭遇暴跌，旋即又现反弹。接下来，金银 价格又会如何演绎呢？究竟是长期趋势的终结，还是牛市途中一次惊心动魄的"压力测试"？ 机构：金价长期看涨，警惕银价波动 白银的价格波动历来比黄金更为剧烈，原因在于其市场规模较小、流动性较低。相比之下，流动性更高的黄金 市场应对波动的能力更强。 日前，多家银行和资产管理机构重申对黄金的长期看涨观点。一位在暴跌前卖出的富达国际（Fidelity International）基金经理表示准备再次买入；太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）大宗商品组合管理团队负责人也 认为，黄金的上行趋势依旧完好。 摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师Jason Hunter表示，近期金价的走势是典 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with international gold reaching $4959.54 per ounce and domestic prices in Shanghai hitting 1111.00 yuan per gram, reflects a market sentiment reminiscent of the 2019 gold bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [1][6][9]. Price Dynamics - International gold prices increased by nearly 4% overnight, while domestic prices rose approximately 1.8% in a single day [1]. - The price disparity between retail gold jewelry and wholesale gold is significant, with retail prices in Beijing and Shanghai around 1542 yuan and 1539 yuan per gram, respectively, compared to a wholesale price of approximately 1274 yuan per gram in Shenzhen [3][4]. Market Sentiment - The current market environment shows a stark contrast between consumer enthusiasm for high gold prices and the cautious sentiment among wholesale traders, mirroring the dynamics observed before the 2019 gold bull market [4][9]. - Historical parallels are drawn, noting that in 2019, gold prices were stable around $1300 per ounce, with similar price disparities and consumer behavior [7]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally, including the People's Bank of China, have been steadily increasing their gold reserves, indicating a strategic shift towards gold as a stable asset amid economic uncertainties [7]. - As of January 2026, China's gold reserves have increased for 15 consecutive months, reflecting a long-term commitment rather than short-term speculation [7]. Investment Strategies - For consumers, purchasing gold jewelry from high-end brands may incur significant premiums, suggesting a shift towards more cost-effective options like traditional retailers or wholesale markets [10]. - For investment purposes, gold jewelry is not recommended due to high premiums; instead, investment gold bars or gold ETFs are suggested as more efficient vehicles for capitalizing on gold price increases [12]. - A cautious investment approach is advised, utilizing strategies like dollar-cost averaging to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [12].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a historic surge on February 4, 2026, with London gold prices rising by $204.55, a 4.29% increase, reaching $4977.7 per ounce, marking the largest single-day increase since the 2008 financial crisis [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices followed a significant drop of 21% in the previous week, indicating a rapid shift from panic selling to aggressive buying within 72 hours, with price fluctuations exceeding $300 [1][3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange raised margin requirements and expanded price limits, allowing for greater market volatility, which contributed to a 45% increase in COMEX gold trading volume [3] - The current market conditions align with historical bull markets driven by global economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and loose monetary policies, with active speculative trading amplifying price volatility [5] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - In January 2026, global central banks added a net 1200 tons of gold, with China increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, indicating a long-term strategic demand rather than short-term speculation [6] - The share of gold in global central bank reserves rose to 20%, surpassing the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset [6] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The surge in gold prices was directly triggered by escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with military incidents prompting safe-haven investments in gold [6] - Weak U.S. employment data reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, contributing to a favorable environment for gold price recovery [6] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Segmentation - The gold market is experiencing structural differentiation, with significant price discrepancies between bank gold bars and retail gold jewelry, exceeding 400 yuan per gram [8] - Traditional gold jewelry sales have declined due to high prices, leading brands to close underperforming stores and shift focus to the high-end market, while artisanal gold products are gaining popularity [9] - The stock market related to gold has seen significant gains, with nearly 30 stocks in the A-share gold concept sector hitting the daily limit, and some companies doubling their stock prices within a month [9] Group 5: Investor Sentiment - Ordinary investors are showing a polarized response, with some queuing to buy gold bars while others are cashing out profits due to rapid price increases, reflecting differing risk perceptions among market participants [11]

信号一：美联储政策"鹰派变脸" 新任美联储主席沃什的鹰派立场，像一盆冷水浇灭了市场宽松预期。美元指数应声反弹，美债收益率飙升，直接刺破了黄金的短期泡沫。更关键的是，市 场对美联储独立性的担忧开始松动——这可是支撑黄金十年牛市的根基之一。 最近几天，黄金市场像坐了过山车——1月底冲上5600美元/盎司的历史高位后，转眼间又暴跌20%，创下40年来单日最大跌幅。这场波动让不少投资者心 跳加速，但真正需要警惕的是，三大罕见信号已悄然浮现，预示更大的变盘可能就在眼前。 虽然中东局势依旧紧张，但市场发现：黄金的避险属性正在被"去美元化"替代。各国央行购金速度放缓，中国投资者转向黄金ETF和积存金，这种从"囤 实物"到"玩金融"的转变，让金价波动更像股票而非避险资产。 变盘前夜的三大支撑 数据显示，黄金ETF持仓量突破历史极值，白银期货未平仓合约一度占全球产量的30%。这种极端拥挤的交易结构，就像暴雨前的蚂蚁搬家。当沃什提名 消息传来，杠杆资金连夜出逃，单日抛售量抵得上三个月正常交易量。 央行"压舱石"仍在：全球央行年度购金量仍超800吨，波兰等国资深买家未退场 信号三：避险逻辑"裂痕初现" 美元信用"慢性病"未愈：美国 ...