证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 29 日 继续关注 2%以上的高票息信用债 ——信用分析周报（2025/6/23-2025/6/27） 投资要点： 本周（6/23-6/27）市场概览： 证券分析师 联系人 1）一级市场：本周传统信用债发行量、偿还量、净融资额环比上周均有所减少，资 产支持证券净融资额环比上周减少；本周 AA 主体产业债，AA+、AAA 主体金融债 发行利率大幅上升，AA+主体产业债发行利率下降，其余各券种各评级债券发行利 率均有不超过 4BP 的变动。 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周减少 1299 亿元，传统信用债换手率较上 周整体下行，资产支持证券换手率有所上涨。本周信用债收益率整体小幅波动，长 端表现好于中短端。总体来看，本周大部分行业信用利差小幅波动，AA+电子行业 的信用利差大幅收缩。具体来看，本周 AA 房地产行业信用利差较上周分别走扩 14BP；AA+电子、电气设备行业信用利差较上周分别压缩 62BP、9BP，钢铁行业 信用利差较上周走扩 12BP；AAA 电气设备行业信用利差较上周压缩 9BP。 廖志明 SAC：S135052 ...

超长信用债涨势暂歇 3-5 年中低等级表现占优 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 28 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | ] | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | | 邮 | 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 3超长信用债涨势暂歇 3-5 年中低等级表现占优 [T ...

Group 1 - The S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada closed down 0.22% at 26,692.32 points, with a weekly increase of 0.73%, indicating an overall M-shaped trend [1] - The small-cap index fell by 1.00% to 896.97 points, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.99% [1] - On Friday, June 27, the yield on Canada's 10-year benchmark government bond decreased by 0.98 basis points to 3.307%, with a weekly increase of 0.4 basis points [1] Group 2 - The yield on the two-year Canadian government bond dropped by 2.6 basis points to 2.600%, with a cumulative weekly decline of 4.5 basis points [1] - The five-year Canadian government bond yield fell by 3.4 basis points to 2.852%, with a cumulative weekly decline of 4.2 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 3.52 basis points, reaching 4.2769% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased by a total of 9.83 basis points this week, trading within the range of 4.4028%-4.2378% [1] - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 2.86 basis points, now at 3.7480% [1] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield has seen a cumulative decline of 15.97 basis points this week, fluctuating between 3.9289%-3.7071% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the UK bond market experienced fluctuations in yields, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 3.2 basis points to 4.504% while cumulatively dropping by 3.2 basis points over the week [1] - The 2-year UK bond yield increased by 1.2 basis points to 3.839%, with a cumulative decline of 8.0 basis points for the week [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield saw a cumulative increase of 0.3 basis points, indicating a W-shaped reversal, while the 50-year bond yield rose by 3.7 basis points [1] Group 2 - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year UK bonds increased by 4.578 basis points, reaching +66.277 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in German government bond yields, with the 10-year yield rising by 2.3 basis points to 2.592% and a cumulative increase of 7.5 basis points for the week [1] - The 2-year German bond yield increased by 3.4 basis points to 1.860%, with a weekly cumulative rise of 1.0 basis point, showing a W-shaped trend [1] - The 30-year German bond yield remained relatively stable at 3.070%, with a cumulative increase of 9.8 basis points for the week [1] Group 2 - The 2/10 year German bond yield spread decreased by 1.354 basis points to +72.781 basis points, with a weekly cumulative increase of 6.261 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. Treasury yields have shown a slight increase, reflecting unexpected inflation rise as indicated by the Federal Reserve's preferred metrics [1][3] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 4.5 basis points to 3.76%, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3.2 basis points to 4.285% [1] - The core inflation rate for May reached 2.7%, exceeding expectations, with economists predicting an overall inflation rate of 2.3% [3] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring President Trump's renewed threats against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [4] - Powell reiterated the Fed's wait-and-see approach regarding interest rates until the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes clearer [5] - In the European market, most government bonds saw a slight increase in yields, with the 10-year German bond yield rising by 1.8 basis points to 2.583% [5] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.4 basis points to 1.452% [7] - The U.S. Treasury Department had no bond issuance scheduled for Friday [7]

Group 1 - The trend of "steepening" in the U.S. Treasury yield curve has become more pronounced, with the difference between the 30-year and 5-year Treasury yields exceeding 100 basis points, reaching 102 basis points, the highest level since 2021 [1] - The decline in short-term Treasury yields is occurring at a faster pace than that of long-term yields, reflecting increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and a shift of funds from short-term to long-term Treasuries [1][2] - The difference in yields between the 30-year and 5-year Treasuries has expanded significantly from around 40 basis points at the beginning of the year to over 100 basis points in recent weeks, indicating a notable change in market sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, with the probability of a rate cut in July rising to 20.7% from 14.5% a week prior, and the probability for September rising to 90.2% from 69.6% [2] - There is a divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing of a rate cut, with some supporting a cut in July while others maintain a cautious stance [2][3] - Overall, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut by 2025 is increasing, with potential cuts expected in September or October [3]

美国2/10国债收益率差温和走陡至52.1个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a decline in U.S. personal spending data for May, which has led to a slight decrease in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term decline, dropping by 0.16% and currently standing at 97.12 [1]