20250516申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 752.26 | 757.90 | 8110.00 | 8176.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 759.70 | 765.62 | 8172.00 | 8237.00 | | | 货 | | | | | | | | | 涨跌 | -7.44 | -7.72 | -62.00 | -61.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.98% | -1.01% | -0.76% | -0.74% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 67172 | 55950 | 161604 | 125287 | | | | 成交量 | 69209 | 14621 | 253713 | 33734 | | ...

Group 1: High Yield Bond Market - The high yield bond market showed resilience in Q1 2025, not experiencing the severe downturn expected amid broader economic uncertainty, with positive absolute returns but no excess returns above risk-free rates, as yields were 113 basis points lower than neutral U.S. Treasury rates [1] - There was a clear bifurcation in the high yield bond sector, with BB-rated bonds outperforming lower-rated bonds, indicating a shift towards higher quality bonds by investors in response to economic uncertainty [1] - The high yield bond market is supported by favorable technical factors, including suppressed default rates and extended refinancing schedules, with many bonds maturing as late as 2029, providing a buffer amid slowing economic growth [6] Group 2: Macroeconomic Impact of Tariffs - The implementation of new tariffs by the Trump administration is a direct catalyst for market volatility, with the IMF estimating a potential 0.9% reduction in U.S. GDP and a 1% increase in inflation if average tariff rates rise as announced [2] - The labor market shows mixed signals, with stable unemployment claims but increasing targeted layoffs, particularly in sectors reliant on federal spending, leading to concerns about the employment outlook as small business optimism declines [3] - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious stance, with expectations of 2.5 rate cuts in 2025, but market consensus suggests potential for more aggressive cuts if inflation remains high amid economic stagnation [3] Group 3: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds - The investment-grade corporate bond market reflects increasing unease, with credit spreads widening from 80 basis points to 93 basis points by the end of Q1 2025, although still within neutral ranges [4] - Corporate fundamentals remain resilient, with EBITDA showing a stable growth of 3.5% year-over-year, and interest coverage ratios at a solid 9.3 times, indicating that companies can withstand moderate economic downturns [4] - Demand dynamics for U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds are being closely monitored, particularly from foreign investors, which could enhance bond prices if U.S. Treasury yields remain stable [5] Group 4: Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) - The MBS and ABS markets are affected by renewed interest rate volatility due to tariff expectations, with a preference for high-quality auto loan structures despite rising concerns over consumer repayment capabilities [6] - The demand for high-quality assets may offset potential outflows from the MBS market, while lower yields could lead to increased prepayment rates, complicating the risk-return trade-off for investors [7]

回撤方面，截至2025年5月15日，上海金ETF今年以来相对基准回撤0.15%，在可比基金中回撤风险较低。 2025年5月16日，现货黄金震荡反弹，向上触及3250美元/盎司。ETF方面，截至 09:32，上海金ETF(159830)上涨1.73%，最新价报7.48元。从资金净流入方面 来看，上海金ETF近3天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"1350.59万元。 截至5月15日，上海金ETF近1年净值上涨31.69%，排名可比基金前2，贵金属基金排名3/47，居于前6.38%。从收益能力看，截至2025年5月15日，上海金ETF 自成立以来，最高单月回报为10.00%，最长连涨月数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅为8.00%，涨跌月数比为30/15，上涨月份平均收益率为3.04%，年盈利百分比 为100.00%，月盈利概率为66.92%，历史持有3年盈利概率为100.00%。 截至2025年5月9日，上海金ETF近1年夏普比率为2.86，排名可比基金前2/7，同等风险下收益更高。 费率方面，上海金ETF管理费率为0.25%，托管费率为0.05%，费率在可比基金中处于较低水平。 跟踪精度方面，截至2025年5月15日，上 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-16 中美经贸磋商提速，全球贸易政策博弈持续 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，央行推出三大类共十项货币政 策措施，包括降准0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1个百分点，创设新的政策工具等；金融监管总局将推出八项增量 政策，涉房地产金融、险资入市、稳外贸等；证监会表示将"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，稳步推进市场对外开放。 值得注意的是，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口 当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同），对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲 击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月14日央行发布 2025 年前四个月社会融资规模增量数据，显示金融对实体经 济支持力度加大。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进 展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商机制。国务院关税税则委发布公告：自2025年5月14日12时01分起，对 美进口商品加征关税税率由34%降至10%，暂停24% ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Hoover Institution conference at Stanford University highlighted the challenges facing the Federal Reserve in achieving its inflation target of 2% while gradually lowering interest rates, suggesting that this "mission" may never be fully accomplished and indicating a potential redefinition of the Fed's role in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Evolving Role - The Federal Reserve has transitioned from a mere monetary policy maker to a "super central bank" that actively intervenes in crises, a role it has played for the past 30 years [1]. - There is a growing consensus that the era of aggressive Fed intervention is nearing its end, with future policies expected to be more restrained and limited [1][3]. - Criticism has emerged regarding the Fed's current policy tools and theoretical frameworks, with calls for a focus on ensuring monetary predictability to support economic contracts rather than solely controlling inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Critiques and Recommendations - Harvard professor Jason Furman criticized the Fed for its "confused framework" and urged for clearer, more predictable rules instead of reactive measures [2]. - Cleveland Fed's new president, Loretta Mester, suggested a reevaluation of the Fed's balance sheet and the long-term impacts of quantitative easing and tightening policies [2]. - Concerns were raised about the brevity of current policy decision memos, which may lead to market instability due to excessive speculation on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statements [2]. Group 3: Future Leadership and Policy Directions - Powell's term is set to end in May next year, with speculation that his successor may be Kevin Walsh, who advocates for a less interventionist Fed focused solely on inflation control [3]. - Another potential successor, Michelle Bowman, also leans towards a more lenient regulatory stance, indicating a shift within the Fed [3]. - The Fed is expected to release a new policy framework review this summer, but skepticism exists regarding its effectiveness before leadership changes occur [3]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Under Walsh's potential leadership, the Fed may adopt a more restrained approach, which could leave it "under-armed" in the event of a future financial crisis [4]. - Furman noted that the economy is entering a new phase, raising doubts about whether inflation can decrease further even without new tariffs from Trump [4].

施罗德投资金属基金经理James Luke指，黄金的基本面长期已经呈现正面迹象。通过有效地摆脱美国作 为储备货币发行国的角色，美国总统特朗普正在为这些趋势加码。长期的环球地缘政治及财政趋势有可 能推动黄金市场出现强劲的牛市，但须重申，如果金价不大幅上升，黄金市场的规模根本不足以吸收在 全球同步出现的买盘。特朗普正在加速并增强这项全球同步竞标的潜力。 特朗普保护主义具滞胀特质 黄金受惠关税致资金回流 施罗德投资表示，在基本预测情景下，特朗普的保护主义议程具有周期性滞胀特质。滞胀为风险资产带 来痛苦，但往往非常利好黄金。从整个大局来看可能更具震撼性。通过根据贸易逆差规模而非实际的贸 易障碍建议征收高额关税，特朗普明确表示，美国想要的不是自由贸易，而是平衡贸易。这种对贸易逆 差的排斥是对全球化最严厉的谢绝，亦可视为对以美元为中心的环球货币体系实质上的排斥。 在12个月前，预测2030年黄金达到5000美元/盎司的价格并不令人感到夸张。现在，这个价格则显得较 为保守。 黄金作为货币资产而非大宗商品资产而上涨 对于黄金股票而言，目前的价格很有可能转化为广泛股票市场中任何行业板块最大的盈利和自由现金流 增长。尽管如此，投 ...

值得庆幸的是，此后所谓的对等关税被暂停实施 90 天。这一举措让布拉德对局势的发展多了一份乐观，他认为这为特朗普政府争取到了宝贵的时间，使其 有机会在对美国经济造成不可挽回的损害之前，通过谈判达成合理的贸易协议。不过，他也强调："但他们必须继续推进(贸易谈判)。" 目前，白宫不仅与中 国达成了 90 天的关税豁免期，还在积极推进与其他国家的贸易谈判，试图消除特朗普口中的 "贸易壁垒"。 dbg盾博发现在全球经济紧密相连的当下，美国的贸易政策变动总能引发轩然大波。特朗普推出的 "解放日" 关税，犹如一颗重磅炸弹，在国际市场掀起巨 浪。不到一周，前圣路易斯联储主席吉姆・布拉德(Jim Bullard)在电视上的一番言论，更是让各界对美国贸易政策的走向充满担忧与警惕。 吉姆・布拉德提及的《斯姆特 - 霍利关税法》，在美国经济历史上堪称 "臭名昭著"。这部于 1930 年出台的法案，作为典型的保护主义贸易政策，大幅提高 了数千种美国进口商品的关税。这一举措如同打开了潘多拉魔盒，迅速引发了一场全球性的贸易战。众多历史学家指出，这场贸易战对当时的世界经济造成 了毁灭性打击，不仅严重阻碍了国际贸易的正常流通，更使得全球经济 ...

2025.05. 15 本文字数：2214，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 日本官方本周公布的数据显示，海外投资者上月买入日本股票和债券的规模创下近20年新高。在"股 神"巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦近年来大举买入背景和避险情绪带动下，日元资产持续受到外界的广 泛关注。 日本资产受青睐 日本财务省5月12日发布的日本《对外及对内证券买卖契约等的状况》显示，海外投资者4月净买入 的日本股票和债券共计8万亿日元以上（约合570亿美元）。这是自2005年有可比数据以来最高水 平，相当于过去20年4月份平均值的三倍多。 从细分看，中长期债券的净买入为4万5371亿日元（315亿美元），是自2022年7月以来的最高水平， 达到历史第二高。股票和投资基金净买入3万6759亿日元（255亿美元），为2023年4月以来新高，也 是历史第三高。 交易员表示，债券激增可能来自央行储备，其需要将资金撤出美国资产。其中很大一部分购买的是日 本政府债券（JGBs），在不确定时期被视为一种流动性和稳定性的选择。 野村证券首席外汇策略师后藤雄二郎(Yujiro Goto)表示，长期债券购买规模"大大超过"了4月份的典 型规模。 ...

Group 1 - Overseas investors net purchased over 8 trillion yen (approximately 570 billion USD) in Japanese stocks and bonds in April, marking the highest level since 2005 and more than three times the average for April over the past 20 years [2][3] - The net purchase of medium- and long-term bonds reached 4.5371 trillion yen (315 billion USD), the highest since July 2022 and the second highest in history, while net purchases of stocks and investment funds were 3.6759 trillion yen (255 billion USD), also a new high for April 2023 and the third highest historically [2][3] - The surge in bond purchases is attributed to central bank reserves reallocating funds away from US assets, with a significant portion being Japanese government bonds (JGBs), viewed as a liquidity and stability choice during uncertain times [2][3] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the inflow of funds into Japan include monetary policy, profit expectations, corporate governance, and the influence of Warren Buffett, who has significantly increased his investments in Japanese companies [3][4] - Buffett's investment strategy emphasizes a long-term relationship with Japanese companies, indicating confidence in their historical performance and business practices [4] - The influx of capital into Japan is seen as a response to the volatility caused by US trade policies, with Japan being perceived as a safe haven for funds amid global economic uncertainty [4]

每经编辑｜毕陆名 周三（5月14日），美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。纳指涨0.72%，标普500指数涨0.1%，道指跌0.21%。大型科技股多数 上涨，英伟达、特斯拉涨超4%。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.17%。腾讯音乐涨逾15%，理想汽车涨近3%，阿里巴巴、百度、 好未来涨近2%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收涨0.07%，报13822点。 周三纽约尾盘，离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元北京时间04:59报7.2112元，较周二纽约尾盘跌121点，日内整体交投于 7.1913~7.2159元区间。 在岸人民币兑美元（CNY）北京时间03:00收报7.2090元，较周二夜盘收盘跌50点。成交量455.31亿美元。 商品方面，COMEX黄金期货跌1.91%，报3185.7美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货跌2.23%，报32.37美元/盎司。 国际原油期货结算价跌近1%。WTI 6月原油期货收跌0.52美元，跌幅0.82%报63.15美元/桶。布伦特7月原油期货跌 0.81%，报66.09美元/桶。NYMEX 6月天然气期货收跌4.25%，报3.492美元/百万英热。 消息面上，美联储官员们的最新讲话也是市 ...