在短暂的恐慌过后，美股周一重新进入反弹模式，因投资者将注意力从上周五令人担忧的7月非农就业 报告转移到美联储可能很快采取行动降息的可能性上。 根据美国劳工统计局上周五发布的报告，美国7月新增就业岗位为7.3万个，远低于市场预期，失业率上 升至4.2%。更引人关注的是对5月和6月数据的大幅修正，两月合计被下修了25.8万个岗位。 数据公布后，美股上周五大幅下跌，三大指数均跌超1%。非农数据的大幅下修，被认为是引发华尔街 当天抛售的主要原因，因为这表明自4月2日美国总统特朗普宣布"对等关税"以来，经济弹性并不像看起 来那么强。 本周一，美股高开高收，三大指数集体上涨，均创下5月27日以来的最大单日百分比涨幅，投资者在上 一交易日的抛售之后低吸买盘，并且在弱于预期的就业数据公布后加大了对9月降息的押注。 根据芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME）的数据，目前美联储9月降息25个基点的概率已经攀升至94.4%， 而维持利率不变的概率仅为5.6%。 但至少就目前而言，美银团队坚持认为，美联储可能会维持利率不变直至2026年。 整体来看，尽管对劳动力的需求似乎有所下降，但劳动力市场的"闲置产能"并未显著增加。换句话说， 劳动力需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 775.55 yuan/g, with a change of 8.37 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 47,492, and the open interest was 206,958. The inventory was 35,889 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 111 yuan/kg. The trading volume of the futures active contract was - 78,029, and the open interest was 371,051. The inventory was 1,174,273 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,428.60 dollars/ounce, with a change of 12.60 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 132,941, and the open interest was 334,342. The inventory was 37,762,393.92 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 38.33 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.34 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 44,731, and the open interest was 109,684. The inventory was 506,602,108.72 (in troy ounces) [1]. News and Information - **Gold**: The EU has suspended trade counter - measures against the US for six months. Switzerland is facing a negotiation "race" to reduce a 39% tariff, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy. Trump will choose a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new Bureau of Labor Statistics director in three to four days [1]. - **Macroeconomic Policies**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate in July. The US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in September, October, and December. The European Central Bank may cut rates once by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan may still raise rates by the end of 2025 [1].

Group 1 - Major tech companies like Meta and Microsoft have shown solid performance, while Apple has also delivered stable results despite recent weaker performance [1] - Overall, most companies in this earnings season have seen their stock prices decline after reporting, except for those that significantly exceeded expectations [1] - The market appears to have priced in strong earnings already, leading to high valuations and increased sensitivity to negative news [3] Group 2 - Recent developments in three key areas: fiscal debt issuance, TGA (Treasury General Account) rebuilding, and interest rate expectations have been observed [4][6] - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue a net $1 trillion in debt in Q3, with an additional $590 billion in Q4, while maintaining a consistent issuance structure for medium to long-term bonds [4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its interest rate levels, with no preset plans for a rate cut in September, emphasizing a data-driven approach to future decisions [10][12] Group 3 - Economic indicators suggest a state of "stagflation" characterized by rising prices, stagnant employment growth, and weakening domestic demand, despite a reported GDP growth of 3% [16][17] - The market seems to be ignoring the potential for sustained high interest rates in the second half of the year, focusing instead on narratives of fiscal and monetary easing [18] - The performance of individual companies, particularly in the advertising sector, indicates that the economic situation may not be as dire as suggested by macroeconomic data [18] Group 4 - The virtual investment portfolio "Alpha Dolphin" has not made any adjustments and has outperformed benchmark indices, with a 92.6% absolute return since inception [19][22] - The portfolio's performance is attributed to a defensive asset allocation, with significant holdings in gold, cash, and U.S. Treasuries [24] - Upcoming earnings reports from various companies, including AMD, Disney, and Uber, are expected to provide insights into the economic landscape and sector performance [25][26]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% during its recent meeting, marking a continuation of its current monetary policy stance [2][12] - President Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, criticizing him for not aligning with his political objectives and calling for interest rate cuts [4][5] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is highlighted, as Trump has attempted to exert pressure on Powell but has been advised against taking drastic actions that could undermine market confidence [4][9] Interest Rates - Interest rates are crucial in the financial and economic system, influencing asset valuations and investment decisions [9] - Trump argues that lowering interest rates could significantly reduce government debt interest payments, but this approach is likened to administering excessive medication that could destabilize the economy [9][12] - The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged reflects a cautious approach to balancing employment and inflation, with recent economic indicators showing a slowdown in growth but stable employment levels [14][15] Federal Reserve's Independence - The legal framework allows the President to appoint the Fed Chair but does not grant the power to dismiss them, emphasizing the Fed's independence [4][12] - Trump's visit to the Fed headquarters and his public criticisms of Powell are seen as attempts to increase pressure on the Fed, which traditionally operates independently to maintain market confidence [7][12] - The Fed's dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices is often at odds, complicating its policy decisions [12][13] Decision-Making Dynamics - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-2 vote to maintain rates, indicating differing opinions among board members regarding the economic outlook and the need for rate cuts [14][15] - The dissenting votes reflect a division in the assessment of economic conditions, with some members advocating for immediate rate cuts to support employment [15] - The ongoing tension between presidential influence and the Fed's commitment to its long-term goals underscores the challenges faced by the central bank in navigating political pressures [13][15]

Market Overview - As of last Friday (August 1), London spot gold closed at $3362.64 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $26.42 per ounce, representing a 0.79% rise [1] - The highest gold price reached $3362.64 per ounce, while the lowest dipped to $3275.05 per ounce during the week [1] - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations in gold prices, with potential benefits if a rate cut is initiated [1] Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was below expectations, with an increase of 73,000 jobs compared to the anticipated 104,000 [2] - Significant downward revisions were made to the May and June data, totaling a reduction of 258,000 jobs [2] - The labor force participation rate in July was 62.2%, lower than expected, while the unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, with a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell [4] - The Fed's statement acknowledged economic uncertainty and the need to monitor inflation risks, while not providing a clear response regarding a potential rate cut in September [4] Long-term Trends - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally is expected to support gold prices, as central banks continue to increase their gold reserves [7] - China's central bank reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [7] - The potential impact of the U.S. government's legalization of stablecoins may influence the demand for gold as a hedge against currency depreciation [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - As of last Friday (August 1), London spot gold closed at $3362.64 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $26.42 per ounce, representing a 0.79% rise [1] - The gold price fluctuated last week, reaching a high of $3362.64 per ounce and a low of $3275.05 per ounce [1] - The market is currently experiencing expectations of a rate cut in September due to disappointing non-farm payroll data, which has led to a decline in the dollar and U.S. stocks, subsequently boosting gold prices [1][5] Group 2: Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 104,000, with significant downward revisions for May and June, totaling a reduction of 258,000 jobs [2] - The labor force participation rate in July was 62.2%, below expectations and previous values, while the unemployment rate was 4.2%, meeting expectations but higher than the previous figure [2] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding expectations of 2.6% and the previous value of 0.5% [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, with a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell emphasizing the need for more data before making decisions on rate cuts [4] - The Fed's statement acknowledged economic uncertainty and risks, particularly in the labor market, while maintaining a focus on price stability and maximum employment [4] Group 4: Long-term Trends - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally is expected to support gold prices, as central banks, including China's, continue to increase their gold reserves [7] - China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June, marking an increase of 70,000 ounces, continuing a trend of accumulation for eight consecutive months [7] - The potential impact of the U.S. government's legalization of stablecoins may influence the dollar's credibility and subsequently affect gold prices, depending on the development of credit risks associated with stablecoins [6][7]

一个是全世界最有权势的总统，一个是全球最具影响力的"央行行长"。为何特朗普与鲍威尔总是互掐？ 美联储为何敢不听总统的话？ 说起来，鲍威尔的美联储的主席是特朗普任命提名，咱们一起来分析分析。 美联储自诞生起就不是为总统服务。作为联邦制国家，美国人对太多的权力集中在少数人手里这件事， 骨子里很警惕。 美国制定国家根本大法《宪法》，也是来自各州的55名代表唇枪舌剑辩论127天才讨论出来的。所从自 1776年建国至今，一大半的时间都没有中央银行的概念，中央银行不存在。 没有中央银行，谁来印钱呢？ 当时只要锚定黄金之类的硬通货，私人银行就可以发行货币。但这也带来了问题，美国人同样信不过小 银行，有一点风吹草动就把钱拿出来，一挤兑就很容易引发银行的危机。 美国人搞了无数次银行危机，折腾了很多次，大家筋疲力尽才考虑成立一个中央银行。中央银行的重要 任务是最后救济的一个大银行，当银行面临破产时，央行可提供救济。 这又把各个州的政府银行都聚在一起开会，讨论了三四年，直至1913年，美国已建国130多年才成立美 联储，全称叫"美国联邦储备系统"。 美联储性质复杂，更像是公私合营的组织，既有代表国家的联邦储备局，也有代表地方的联邦 ...

从供给端看，欧佩克+从4月份开始增产。在最新的会议上，欧佩克+同意9月份大幅增产54.8万桶，提前一年退出本轮的减产计 划。同时欧佩克还释放消息称，下个月仍然存在进一步增产的可能。从实际增产数量看，虽然4月和5月份欧佩克+的增产额度并 未超过预期，但是6月份增产幅度基本符合市场预期，暗示后续产油国产量进一步上升将是大概率事件。 黄金方面： 美联储在今年7月份的利率决议上维持当前的利率水平不变，同时美联储主席鲍威尔并没有释放后续降息的信号，金价承压。 不过紧随其后美国公布7月非农就业人数录得增加7.3万人，不及市场预期的11万人；特别值得注意的是美国劳工部将上个月非农 就业人数从原来的14.7万人，大幅下修至1.4万人，这样一来，说明美国5月至7月新增非农就业人口数据远不及市场预期。 另外美国政府的关税政策正在开始发生作用，美国的通胀水平在最近的两个月里面出现了明显的反弹。数据显示，美国CPI未季 调年率已经从4月份的2.3%反弹至当前的2.7%。美国经济出现了"滞胀"的特征。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前美国经济陷入滞胀的风险较高，市场押注美联储降息的情绪比较浓厚，黄金价 格存在进一步走高的机会 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors including economic fundamentals, monetary policy, trade policy, and geopolitical risks [4] Group 1: Economic Factors - Weak U.S. economic data, including a July PMI of 48.0 and disappointing non-farm payrolls, has diminished market confidence [6] - Non-farm employment increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [6] - Historical trends indicate that gold tends to outperform other asset classes during stagflation, as seen in the 1970s [8] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The weak employment data has increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability for a September cut rising from 38% to 90% [10] - Historical data shows that Fed rate cut cycles are often accompanied by rising gold prices, with increases of approximately 30% during the 2007-2008 financial crisis and over 40% during the 2019-2020 rate cut cycle [12] - Recent tensions within the Fed, including dissenting votes on monetary policy, suggest potential shifts in policy direction [10] Group 3: Geopolitical and Trade Factors - Recent trade tensions, including high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on various countries, contribute to the upward pressure on gold prices [13] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and central banks' increasing gold purchases are also supporting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [20] Group 4: Investment Trends - Global central banks added 166 tons of gold in Q2, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [22] - Gold ETF investments have surged, with inflows of 170 tons in Q2 and a total of 397 tons in the first half of the year, marking the highest level since 2020 [23] - Domestic funds are increasingly investing in gold ETFs, with significant inflows and a growing fund size [24] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Recent technical indicators suggest that gold may have completed its adjustment phase, with key resistance levels surpassed [26] - Market sentiment is turning optimistic, as reflected in increased net long positions by fund managers [28] - Major investment banks, including Citigroup, have raised their gold price forecasts, indicating bullish sentiment for the near term [28]

| FERENS 贵金属日评20250804: 美国7月新增非农远不及预期, 市场预期美联储下半年或降息三次 | | | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2025-08-01 2025-07-31 2025-07-28 较昨日变化 较上周变化 | | | 上海黄金 收盘价 767.18 766. 58 771.58 0. 60 -4. 40 | | | 持仓重 206334.00 207044.00 -710.00 210216.00 -3, 882. 00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.28 -3. 48 -2.78 0. 20 -0. 50 | | | 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -3.54 -3. 70 -3. 20 0.16 -0. 34 收盘价 8918.00 9008.00 9212. 00 -90. 00 -294.00 | | | 交易日期 2025-08-01 2025-07-31 2025-07-24 较昨日变化 较上周变化 收盘价 3342. 30 3416. 00 3371.30 73. 70 44. 70 | | | 伦敦黄金现货 伦敦金现 3346 ...