Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the US dollar index is primarily supported by external factors, including the weakening of non-US currencies and a temporary alleviation of employment concerns [6]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Dollar Strength - The collective weakening of non-US currencies has provided passive support for the dollar index, with the Japanese yen and British pound both under pressure due to respective economic conditions and policy decisions [1]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, reinforcing the resilience of the dollar. Despite a rate cut in October, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have led to a significant reduction in the market's expectations for further cuts in December [2]. - The pause in the release of key economic data due to the government shutdown has alleviated short-term employment concerns, with recent ADP employment data showing marginal improvement, thus supporting the dollar index [3]. Group 2: Additional Supporting Factors - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have temporarily eased, following the Supreme Court's decision to hear a case related to potential dismissals within the Fed, which has calmed market fears [5]. - Increased risk aversion has driven demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, particularly following a pullback in US tech stocks and tightening liquidity conditions [5]. Group 3: Limitations on Future Dollar Strength - The risks in the employment market have not fundamentally eased, with key employment data yet to be released, and the potential for downward revisions in previously reported job numbers [7]. - There remains room for a return to rate cut expectations, particularly if a dovish candidate is appointed as the next Fed chair, which could negatively impact the dollar index [7]. - The support from non-US currencies is not robust, as the Japanese yen's depreciation may prompt government intervention, which could weaken its support for the dollar index [7]. - Technical resistance is evident near the 100-point mark for the dollar index, requiring additional positive factors for further upward movement [7]. Group 4: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, the dollar index is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation, with upcoming employment data and the appointment of a new Fed chair candidate serving as critical tests for its resilience [8].

Core Insights - The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates against the USD have both surpassed the 7.09 mark, reaching a new high in over a year, with the central parity rate set at 7.0826 RMB per USD, an increase of 21 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - The RMB's mid-price has appreciated approximately 1000 basis points year-to-date, supported by a weaker USD and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment [1] - Experts predict that the RMB will maintain a strong performance against the USD in the short term and may experience moderate appreciation through 2026 [1] Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to two main factors: the continuous adjustment of the RMB's mid-price towards a stronger direction and the robust performance of the domestic economy since the beginning of the year, alongside a significant decline in the USD [2] - The adjustment in the RMB exchange rate is aimed at stabilizing the external environment for China's foreign trade enterprises, with expectations of continued strong performance in the short term [2] - The anticipated future actions of the Federal Reserve, including potential interest rate cuts, and the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the US economy are expected to limit the upward potential of the USD index [2] Group 2 - The impact of external fluctuations on China's exports is becoming evident in the fourth quarter, with significant policy measures in place to stabilize the economy, including the issuance of 500 billion RMB in new policy financial instruments and local government debt limits [3] - The internal economic fundamentals are expected to provide substantial support for the RMB exchange rate, with a focus on maintaining a stable RMB against the USD [3] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to remain stable, with limited potential for rapid appreciation above the 7.0 mark before the end of the year [3]

新华财经纽约11月25日电美元指数25日下跌。 1美元兑换155.83日元，低于前一交易日的156.74日元；1美元兑换0.8064瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8077瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.4092加元，低于前一交易日的1.4108加元；1美元兑换9.5181瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.5449瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.48%，在汇市尾市收于99.664。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1584美元，高于前一交易日的1.1528美元；1英镑兑换1.3213美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3109美元。 ...

11月25日，人民币汇率刷新逾1年来高位，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双收复7.09关口。衡量人民 币对一篮子货币的三大人民币汇率指数则续刷2025年4月以来新高。人民币缘何走出全面强势行情？对 此，业内分析认为，这一方面得益于人民币相对非美货币在基本面和资金流动方面的强势表现，另一方 面也缘于中间价持续释放升值信号等。展望后市，业内认为，后续美元指数上行空间有限，人民币走势 则将稳中偏强，四季度的季节性结汇需求将为人民币走势提供重要支撑。（上证报） ...

11月25日，人民币汇率刷新逾1年来高位，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双收复7.09关口。 在对非美货币方面，据中国外汇交易中心数据显示，衡量人民币对一篮子货币的三大人民币汇率指数则续刷2025年4月以来新高。上周，三大人民币指数 全线上扬。其中，CFETS人民币汇率指数报98.22；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报104.66；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.60。 据上海证券报，兴业研究外汇商品部总经理助理、高级研究员张峻滔对记者表示，近期人民币中间价保持坚挺，在岸人民币汇率围绕中间价窄幅震荡，但 由于比如欧元、日元等其他非美货币对美元均现明显贬值，人民币相对韧性凸显，因而人民币汇率指数创下新高。 在岸市场上，人民币兑美元今日最高攀升至7.0851，创下去年10月中旬以来的新高，距年内最低点7.3518已升值超2667个基点。 离岸市场反应更为积极。离岸人民币对美元汇率全天保持强势震荡，顺利突破7.09关口，盘中最高触及7.08305，同样刷新逾一年峰值，距年内最低点 7.42879已升值超3457个基点。 事实上，今年我国出口表现超预期，叠加7月以来国内资本市场走强，这在带动结汇需求增加的同时，也提振 ...

"你有没有注意到最近人民币的波动？有些人觉得它会继续贬值，但也有人认为，人民币保持相对稳定，反而是一个亮点。" 这是不少人最近谈论的一个话 题，尤其是在全球经济面临许多不确定性的时候。汇率问题总是能牵动不少人的神经，不管是普通消费者，还是在国际市场上有业务往来的公司，都在密切 关注着这些数字的变化。 11月25日，人民币对美元的中间价报在7.0847元左右，虽然美元的反弹趋势明显，但人民币并没有像往年一样大幅贬值，这一方面说明了国内经济的韧性， 另一方面也证明了中国政府在外汇市场上的调控能力。特别是在出口和资本流动方面，人民币的表现让很多人看到了它的抗压能力。 其实，人民币的汇率走势并不是单纯受到美国经济政策的影响，它的稳定也和中国一系列宏观经济策略有关。比如，外汇储备的管理、资本流动的管控，都 在一定程度上限制了人民币的剧烈波动，让它在全球货币市场中保持了一定的稳定性。尤其是在美元指数反弹的情况下，人民币并没有跟随贬值，反倒能够 稳住阵脚，这对于那些依赖出口的企业来说，无疑是一大利好消息。 美元的强势回升，是最近汇率市场中的一个大热点。随着美国加息预期的升温，美元指数一路走高，成为市场关注的焦点。然而，尽管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ICE Dollar Index decreased by 0.45%, closing at 99.695 points on Tuesday, November 25 [1] Group 1 - The decline in the ICE Dollar Index indicates a weakening of the US dollar against a basket of currencies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) is exhibiting strong resilience against the US dollar, achieving a one-year high while the dollar index is fluctuating upwards, indicating a "dual strong" pattern in the global currency market [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Performance - On November 25, the RMB exchange rate reached its highest level in over a year, with both onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar recovering above the 7.09 mark [1]. - The three major RMB exchange rate indices against a basket of currencies have also reached new highs since April 2025, with the CFETS index at 98.22, the BIS index at 104.66, and the SDR index at 92.60 [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The strong performance of the RMB is attributed to its relative strength against non-USD currencies in terms of fundamentals and capital flows, as well as the continuous release of appreciation signals from the central parity rate [1]. - Analysts note that China's export performance has exceeded expectations this year, and the strengthening of the domestic capital market since July has increased demand for currency settlement, boosting market confidence in the RMB [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts believe that the upward space for the dollar index is limited, while the RMB is expected to remain strong, supported by seasonal demand for currency settlement in the fourth quarter [3]. - The potential for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates may lead to a weaker dollar, which could increase corporate demand for currency settlement [3]. - The current cross-border capital flows in China are stabilizing, with a balanced supply and demand for foreign exchange, contributing to a more stable market outlook [3].

11月25日，人民币汇率刷新逾1年来高位，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双收复7.09关口。 在岸市场上，人民币兑美元今日最高攀升至7.0851，创下去年10月中旬以来的新高，距年内最低点7.3518已升值超2667个基点。 离岸市场反应更为积极。离岸人民币对美元汇率全天保持强势震荡，顺利突破7.09关口，盘中最高触及7.08305，同样刷新逾一年峰值，距年内最低点 7.42879已升值超3457个基点。 事实上，今年我国出口表现超预期，叠加7月以来国内资本市场走强，这在带动结汇需求增加的同时，也提振了市场对人民币的信心。 值得一提的是，进入四季度，美元指数震荡上行，已回升至100关口上方。 今日早盘，人民币汇率便展现出上行动能，随着午后交易推进，升值态势进一步巩固。中国外汇交易中心数据显示，11月25日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率 中间价为1美元对人民币7.0826元，较前一交易日上调21个基点，为汇率走势奠定偏强基础。 然而，人民币在此背景下仍旧走出了强势行情。业内分析认为，这一方面得益于人民币相对非美货币在基本面和资金流动方面的强势表现，另一方面也源 于中间价持续释放升值信号等。 在对非美货币方面，据中国外汇 ...

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，近期人民币对美元中间价持续向偏强方向调整，或与年初以来国内 经济走势偏强，美元大幅下跌，而人民币对美元汇价尽管有所升值，但未能与之充分匹配有关。这表明 当前汇市调控正在向推动CFETS（中国外汇交易中心发布的综合指标）等人民币对一篮子货币汇率指数 适度上行方向发力。这将有助于为我国外贸企业提供稳定的外部环境。此外，今年我国出口超预期，7 月以来，国内资本市场走强，在带动结汇需求增加的同时，也提振了市场对人民币的信心。 相关数据显示，11月25日，美元指数小幅走低，而今年以来，美元指数已经累计下跌7.8%。 在岸与离岸人民币双双触及逾一年盘中新高。 综合各类影响因素，王青预计短期内人民币还会处于偏强运行状态，未来要重点关注美元走势、人民币 中间价调控力度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度和节奏。 11月25日，在岸人民币对美元上涨0.25%，报7.0866；离岸人民币对美元上涨0.3%，报7.0852。 （文章来源：中国经营报） ...