美国总统特朗普：巴西在贸易谈判中非常强硬。 ...

【环球网报道 记者 赵建东】据日本雅虎新闻网、英国"The London Economic"等媒体报道称，美国总统特朗普近日在接受福克斯新闻采访中， 似乎忘记日本首相石破茂的名字，而称他为"日本先生"。报道称，美国所谓"对等关税"90天暂缓期将于7月9日结束，特朗普政府此时正处紧张 时刻。 《日经亚洲》援引学者的话分析称，特朗普对日本的无知令人恼火。当然，石破茂似乎也发现，特朗普根本就不在乎他的名字。 日本首相石破茂曾在多个场合表示，日本要的是美方全面取消加征的关税，不接受类似英国与美国达成的附带汽车出口配额的协议，也不接受 10%的所谓"基准关税"。 英媒称，特朗普此前说将向其他国家领导人致信，阐述美方关税要求，但他似乎不知道该把这封有关日本的信寄给谁。特朗普在接受福克斯新 闻采访中称，他将给"日本先生"寄信，而他指的是日本首相石破茂。 "我要寄信了，贸易谈判就此终结。我可以给日本发一封"，特朗普还想象着信上的内容向主持人口述称："亲爱的日本先生，事情是这样的。你 将为你们的汽车支付25%的关税。" 法新社称，7月9日是美国暂缓执行"对等关税"的最后期限，在此背景下，日本正寻求与美国就贸易问题进行谈判。报道 ...

Core Points - The Indian government has set "red lines" in trade negotiations with the U.S. regarding genetically modified crops, dairy products, and the automotive industry, indicating a cautious approach due to increasing political pressure [1][2] - The outcome of these negotiations will determine whether India faces a 26% tariff from the U.S., which could significantly impact India's exports and economy [1] - India has communicated its unwillingness to allow U.S. exports of genetically modified crops and to open its dairy and automotive sectors to U.S. competition [2] Group 1: Negotiation Stance - The Indian government, led by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, emphasizes that trade negotiations will prioritize national interests and will not be bound by deadlines [1] - India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has stated that agriculture and dairy are critical red lines in the trade talks, asserting that the government will not compromise the status of domestic farmers [1][3] Group 2: Domestic Political Pressure - There is significant domestic political pressure on the Indian government from opposition parties and farmer groups, warning against excessive concessions to the U.S. [3] - Farmers, who are a key voter base for Modi's party, are concerned that genetically modified crops could harm their livelihoods, with warnings from farmer group representatives about the economic impact [3] - The opposition party, Congress, expresses skepticism about the government's ability to resist U.S. demands, with leaders predicting that Modi will yield to U.S. tariff deadlines [3]

这一消息公布后，欧元兑美元短线波动不大，现货黄金一度跌破3300美元大关。 7月9日关税大限逼近之际，欧美贸易谈判进入关键冲刺阶段。 欧盟委员会发言人周一表示，欧盟与美国贸易协议谈判已经取得了进展，目前已进入"最终阶段的开始"，至少会达成原则性协议。据央视新闻此 前报道，美国总统特朗普曾威胁称，如果7月9日前美欧贸易谈判没有取得突破，他将对欧盟商品征收50%关税。目前，美国对欧盟钢铝产品征收 50%关税，对汽车领域征收25%关税，对几乎所有其他商品征收10%基准关税。 同一天，葡萄牙财政部长Joaquim Miranda Sarmento表示，欧盟与美国有望达成"非常低"的关税协议，很可能低于10%。他在接受媒体采访时称， 这一协议"可能被视为对双方都有利，并能让我们继续贸易往来"。 另外，葡萄牙财政部长Sarmento周一在布鲁塞尔接受媒体采访时表示，欧盟与美国可能达成"关税非常低"的协议。他说： 可能达成关税非常低的协议，这一协议可能被双方视为有利，并能让我们继续贸易往来，为我们的公民增加价值。 当被问及关税水平可能有多低时，Sarmento称"可能低于10%，但让我们看看结果如何"。他期待在周一和周二举 ...

据环球时报报道，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。有外媒记者提问称，昨天美国总统特朗普在"真实社交"上发文表示，已经同中方达成协议，比如说中 方将会提供稀土磁铁等。中方能否证实这些细节？林剑对此回应说，昨天下午中方已就中美经贸磋商机制首次会议发布消息，你可以查阅，我要强调本次会 议是在两国元首的战略指引下举行，双方就落实两国元首6月通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切 取得新进展。 欧盟（资料图） 同时，美国总统特朗普6月表示，日美贸易"不公平"，并称可能会向日本发函，指出"日本不得不支付25%的汽车关税"。根据媒体报道，特朗普说，"会致 函，贸易谈判就结束了……可以向日本致函：'亲爱的日本，日本的汽车会被征收25%的关税'。"日本政府一直呼吁取消或重新评估美国对进口汽车加征的 25%关税，但特朗普的言论或暗示对降低税率持否定态度。 目前来看，美日贸易谈判的焦点与核心矛盾在于，美国要求对日本汽车加征25%关税，威胁日本核心产业。日本首相石破茂强硬表态"不惜一切代价保护汽 车业"。此外，美国要求日本大幅降低牛肉、猪肉等农产品47%的关税，日本担忧农业就业损失12万个岗 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The importance of the July 9 deadline is questioned, as Trump's trade policies have shown inconsistency since February, leading to a focus on short-term market volatility rather than long-term implications[1] - The U.S. has primarily focused on negotiations with major economies like Japan, China, and the EU, aiming for breakthroughs that could influence broader outcomes[2] - Limited progress has been made in negotiations with major economies, leading the U.S. to seek agreements with smaller economies like Vietnam and Cambodia[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market environment has changed, with U.S. stock indices reaching historical highs, providing Trump with leverage to adopt a more aggressive stance[3] - Potential agreements with countries like the UK and Vietnam are characterized by different approaches: the UK as a close ally with lower tariffs and Vietnam as a dependent economy facing higher tariffs[4] - The U.S. may impose a 40% tariff on goods transiting through Vietnam, reflecting a strategy to control indirect exports from China[5] Group 3: Future Trade Strategies - The U.S. trade paradigm may shift from comprehensive tariffs to focusing on supply chains and international taxation, indicating a broader strategy beyond mere tariff increases[6] - The U.S. aims to collect more revenue from indirect exports while maintaining a flexible approach to direct tariffs on China, potentially targeting a 30% rate[7] - The upcoming negotiations may involve a combination of temporary agreements and ongoing discussions, particularly with larger economies like China, Japan, and the EU[8]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a downward trend on July 4, with Shanghai gold main contract priced at 772.22 CNY per gram, down 0.43%, and Shanghai silver main contract at 8883 CNY per kilogram, down 0.38% [1] - International precious metals also declined, with COMEX gold priced at 3321.50 USD per ounce, down 0.44%, and COMEX silver at 36.80 USD per ounce, down 0.63% [1] - The opening prices for July 4 were 775.38 CNY for Shanghai gold and 8919.00 CNY for Shanghai silver, with respective highs of 777.20 CNY and 8953.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that trade negotiations focus on 18 countries contributing to 95% of the U.S. trade deficit, with strategies aimed at applying maximum pressure [3] - Current CME "FedWatch" data shows a 95.3% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] - Last week, COMEX gold prices increased by 1.84% to 3346.50 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold rose by 1.10% to 777.06 CNY per gram [4]

2025 年 7 月 7 日 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 股指期货将偏强震荡 多晶硅、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻 璃期货将偏强震荡 原油、豆油、天然橡胶期货将偏弱震荡 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3974 和 3983 点，支撑位 3926 和 3900 点；IH2509 阻力位 2742 和 2750 点，支撑位 2707 和 2690 点；IC2509 阻力位 5838 和 5888 点，支撑位 5722 和 5690 点；IM2509 阻力位 62 ...

上周，美国财政法案获得通过。摩根士丹利固定收益和主题研究全球主管迈克尔·泽萨斯（Michael Zezas）表示，无论投资者如何看待这项即将生效的立法最终会产生的影响，摩根士丹利所定义的本年 度市场前景四大关键政策因素——财政、贸易、移民和监管——中的一些重大不确定性现已得到解决。 另一方面，美国贸易政策的具体内容和方向仍然悬而未决。 本周三（7月9日），始于4月9日的对等关税90天暂停期将到期。摩根士丹利的基本预测是：美国的有效 关税水平仅会小幅上涨，但会伴随一些新的不确定性。 如果谈判停滞或失败，美国政府可能会决定有选择性地、分阶段地重新征收关税。例如，鉴于双边谈判 的复杂性和各行业之间的细微差别（正如摩根士丹利在此处强调的），欧盟和/或日本可能会面临更强 硬的立场。谈判进展缓慢可能会导致宣布提高关税，但延迟实施——为解决问题留下余地。这种情境也 与7月9日之前没有达成双边或区域框架协议的情况一致。 情景三：框架狂潮 在一个更良性的转变中，美国政府可能会宣布一些区域或双边框架——并非完整的贸易协议，但足以明 确美国有效关税税率的方向偏低，从而降低近期进口成本方向的不确定性。 虽然许多美国贸易伙伴可能会获得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Finance Minister anticipates that trade negotiations will continue after the tariff suspension period ends [1] Group 1 - The Thai government is actively engaged in trade discussions, indicating a proactive approach to international trade relations [1] - The expectation of continued negotiations suggests potential for future trade agreements that could impact various sectors [1]