Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a combination of factors including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, strong export performance, and policy measures aimed at stabilizing exchange rate expectations. Group 1: Drivers of RMB Appreciation - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has led to a decline in the US dollar index, which fell below 100, marking a new low since September 2024 [3]. - China's export data exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% in November, resulting in a trade surplus of $111.68 billion, which has increased demand for RMB as companies engage in year-end currency settlement [3][4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has intervened by adjusting the central parity rate to manage expectations and prevent one-sided appreciation, while state-owned banks have purchased US dollars to balance market supply and demand [4]. Group 2: Future Exchange Rate Outlook - In the short term (1-3 months), the RMB is expected to experience two-way fluctuations, with a low probability of breaking below 7.0, supported by year-end corporate settlements and continued expectations of Fed rate cuts [5]. - However, the official signals to stabilize the exchange rate and potential rebounds in the US dollar index may act as suppressive factors [5]. - Institutions like CITIC Securities predict that the RMB will struggle to break 7.0 for the year, while Morgan Stanley forecasts a potential rise to 6.7-6.95 by the end of 2026 [6]. Group 3: Currency Exchange Strategies - For individuals with rigid currency needs, a phased approach to currency exchange is recommended to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [8]. - Investors are advised to use hedging strategies such as forward contracts to lock in future exchange rates, particularly for those with stable dollar income [8]. - Dollar holders should consider diversifying their asset allocation by converting some dollars into Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, or gold ETFs to reduce currency risk [10].

2025.12. 16 本文字数：1165，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 李隽 人民币持续升值，美元兑人民币已经逼近7的整数关口，然而以前人民币升值最受益的港股却出现了 持续调整。 12月16日上午，恒生指数再跌1.91%，成交1071亿港元，中午报收25139点，第四季度累计调整超 过2000点，也跌破了10月和11月的低点，创出本轮调整新低。 对于背后原因，有业内人士分析认为，2025年港股一度涨幅比较高，本来就有一定调整需求；另一 方面，受南向资金调仓、美联储"鹰派降息"后美债利率回升、地缘政治等因素影响，加上12月19日 日本央行是否加息依然不确定，有投资者担忧市场受到冲击。 12月16日，离岸美元兑人民币汇率破7.04，最新报7.038。 光大证券国际策略师伍礼贤表示，港股近期调整主要源于年内累计涨幅较大，临近年末资金入场意愿 不足。此外，地缘政治因素对市场情绪形成压制，市场对明年全球经济前景有一定分歧。技术面来 看，投资者要关注25000点整数关口支撑，若失守或进一步下探；日本央行的加息预期，会影响日元 套利交易平仓，科技股走弱等，都对区域市场形成压力。 博大资本国际行政总裁温天纳指出， ...

12月16日，隔夜美股三大指数收跌，中概指数跌2.17%，港股三大指数早盘低开低走，恒生指数跌 1.91%报25138.86点，恒生科技指数跌2.41%报5366.14点，国企指数跌2.12%报8728.97点，红筹指数跌 1.66%报4056.25点。 盘面上，大型科技股、大金融股(银行、保险、券商)、中字头等权重集体下挫，其中阿里巴巴跌 3.57%，腾讯控股跌1.41%，京东集团跌2.73%，小米集团跌2.96%，网易跌2.22%，美团跌1.64%，快手 跌1.55%，哔哩哔哩跌2.68%；中国人民保险集团跌超4%，中国人寿、中国财险跌超3%，中国太平、新 华保险、中国平安跌超2%；黄金股下跌，灵宝黄金跌超6%、半导体股、中兴通讯跌超4%；石油股、汽 车股等热门板块齐挫。另外，部分航空股、化妆品股逆势飘红，果下科技首日上市大涨超127%。 企业新闻 中国神华(01088.HK)：前11个月煤炭销售量为3.895亿吨，同比减少7.7%。11月销售量为3700万吨，同 比减少3.6% 中国中冶(01618.HK)：前11月新签合同额人民币9581.3亿元，同比降低8.6%，其中新签海外合同额人民 币750.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic outlook for China's GDP growth, driven by strong export performance and anticipated policy easing measures from the government and central bank [1][3][5]. Economic Data Summary - In November, China's industrial value-added increased by 6% year-on-year, service production index rose by 5.6%, retail sales grew by 4%, and total goods import and export increased by 3.6%, with exports specifically growing by 6.2% [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that China's GDP growth target of 5% for the year is nearly assured, attributing this to the robust export growth [3]. Export Growth and Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for China's export growth to 5%-6% annually over the next few years, citing an expanding global market share [3]. - Deutsche Bank also anticipates a 6% growth in exports by 2026, contributing 0.5 percentage points to overall GDP growth, supported by improved market shares in non-U.S. markets [4]. Real Estate Market Impact - The negative impact of the real estate market on GDP growth is expected to diminish, with projected annual drag reducing from 2 percentage points to approximately 1.5 percentage points in the coming years [3]. Policy Easing Expectations - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined strategies to boost domestic demand through increased household income and service consumption, alongside structural reforms [6]. - Deutsche Bank expects a continuation of active fiscal policies and a stable monetary policy environment, with a focus on maintaining price stability [6][7]. Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a divergence in expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs and UBS predicting a 20 basis point cut, while Deutsche Bank sees limited potential for further rate reductions [7]. - The consensus among various banks is that the fiscal deficit rate will remain around 4% of GDP, with some variations in predictions regarding monetary policy actions [7]. Currency Outlook - The article highlights a strong current account surplus of $600 billion, which is 2.8% of GDP, potentially accelerating the internationalization of the Renminbi [9]. - Predictions indicate that the Renminbi may appreciate against the U.S. dollar, with expectations of reaching 6.7 by the end of 2026 and further to 6.5 by the end of 2027 [10].

Economic Growth Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP growth target of 5% for the year is almost certain to be achieved, supported by strong economic indicators [1][3] - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, predicting a steady export growth of 5%-6% through 2026, with a diminishing negative impact from the real estate sector on GDP growth [2][3] Export Performance - In the first eleven months, the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.6%, with exports growing by 6.2%, exceeding expectations [3] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the growth in China's export volume will continue to rise by 5%-6% annually in the coming years, driven by an expanding global market share [3] Real Estate Sector Impact - The real estate market, while still weak, is expected to have a reduced direct negative impact on GDP growth, with the drag decreasing by approximately 0.5 percentage points annually in the coming years [3][4] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to reduce excess inventory in the real estate sector, which is seen as a necessary step for economic recovery [4][6] Policy Measures - The central economic work conference outlined key strategies for economic work in the coming year, focusing on increasing household income and promoting service consumption to boost domestic demand [6] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the fiscal deficit rate will remain around 8.5% of GDP in 2026, with special government bond issuance increasing to 1.5 trillion yuan [6][7] Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a consensus among various investment banks that the fiscal deficit rate will stabilize around 4% of GDP, although opinions differ on the likelihood and extent of interest rate cuts [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 20 basis point interest rate cut, while UBS expects a combination of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth [7] Currency Outlook - The strong export performance and a current account surplus of $600 billion (2.8% of GDP) are expected to accelerate the internationalization of the renminbi [8] - Deutsche Bank projects that the renminbi will appreciate against the US dollar, reaching 6.7 by the end of 2026 and further strengthening to 6.5 by the end of 2027 [8]

市场走势反映，离岸人民币上一次稳稳地待在"7"的关口以内，还是好几个月前的事。现在，这种"破 7"的预期再度升温，并非空穴来风。 分析师们将目光主要投向了两个方向：一是门外的美联储，另一个是中国经济。 最近，外汇市场里关于人民币的话题越来越热。不少声音在猜，人民币似乎有望在明年突破7.0兑美元 的心理关口，一些看涨人士甚至预测人民币汇率可能升至6.8。这波乐观预期，到底从何而来？ 再者是国内经济展现的韧性。尽管面临挑战，但中国出口依旧保持令人意外的强劲。更重要的是，上周 的会议再次承诺要"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"。 我们可以先看看眼前的行情。本周一午后，离岸人民币兑美元汇率为7.048。中国人民银行周一上午将 人民币中间价设定为7.0656兑美元——这是近几个月来的相对强势水平。 首先是美联储的"转向"。美联储已经开启了降息周期，这对全球货币格局是个重要信号。美元因利率优 势而走强的动力在减弱。简单说，水龙头的水压小了，其他池子的水位相对就容易涨上来。 2025年即将结束，所有人都在关注，人民币是否会以一场强势的升值，为未来两年的走势定下新的基 调。 美国银行预测，由于每日中间价稳定、政策刺 ...

2025 年全球经济格局深度调整的背景下，中国在国际经济舞台的影响力持续攀升，人民币的稳步升值态势成为全球关注的核心议题。截至2025 年12月15日，人民币兑美元汇率报 7.047，较年初累计升值 3.3%，距离市场热议的 7.0 关口仅一步之遥。 人民币升值的态势与市场预期形成强烈呼应，短期突破 7.0 关口的讨论愈演愈烈。从全年走势来看，人民币汇率呈现 "稳中有升" 的阶梯式上涨 特征：一季度受中美利差收窄影响，汇率在 7.2-7.3 区间波动；二季度起，随着中国经济复苏动能增强、外贸顺差扩大，人民币开启升值通道， 三季度突破 7.1 关口后，四季度持续向 7.0 逼近。市场分析普遍认为，人民币升值的核心支撑源于中国经济的基本面优势 ——2025 年 GDP 增速 预计达 5.2%，远超全球平均水平，外贸顺差有望突破 8000 亿美元，为汇率稳定提供坚实基础。 面对汇率升值压力，中国政府采取精准调控策略，展现出成熟的宏观经济治理能力。据路透社援引外汇交易商数据，2025 年10-12 月，中国央行 通过外汇储备账户累计买入约 1800 亿美元，但并未将这些美元转入掉期市场，而是直接纳入储备资产。这一差异 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that innovation has become the key differentiator for China's economy compared to other economies, including Japan, and highlights the significant contribution of innovation to economic growth [2][6]. Group 1: Economic Insights for 2025 - The first insight is that technological breakthroughs, exemplified by DeepSeek, have become a prominent feature of China's economy, showcasing innovation in artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing [5][6]. - The second insight indicates that exports have demonstrated unexpected resilience, with total goods trade exports reaching 24.46 trillion yuan, a growth of 6.2% in the first eleven months [7][8]. - The third insight points to the pressure of declining growth rates in real estate and domestic consumption, highlighting the challenges of transitioning growth models [9][10]. Group 2: Opportunities for 2026 - In 2026, a favorable international macroeconomic environment is anticipated, coinciding with the start of China's "14th Five-Year Plan," which may create advantageous conditions for addressing external challenges [10][11]. - The improvement in economic growth quality is expected to support a stronger renminbi and asset revaluation, with a significant portion of the recent 5% growth attributed to increased production efficiency rather than mere capital expansion [12]. - The article outlines three key areas for progress: short-term risk management and stability, medium to long-term structural optimization, and effectively utilizing existing state assets to support low-income consumption and social security [12][13].

【导读】人民币持续走强，离岸和在岸均刷新逾一年来新高 12月15日，在岸人民币兑美元汇率升至7.05，达2024年10月8日以来的最强水平。截至发稿，报7.0505。 德意志银行预计，到2026年底，人民币兑美元汇率将升值至6.7，并在2027年底进一步升至6.5。 | < w | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | USDCNY.IB | | | | | 7.0505 | | 前收 | 7.0554 | 开盘 | 7.0560 | | -0.0049 | -0.07% | 卖品 | 7.0507 | 买入 | 7.0507 | | 最高 | 7.0565 | 今年来 | -3.40% | 20日 | -0.76% | | 最低 | 7.0502 | 10日 | -0.31% | 60日 | -1.01% | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 周K | 目K | 重多 (0) | | 叠加 | | | | | | | 7.0603 | | | | | 0.07% | | 7.0554 | | | | | 0 ...

【导读】人民币持续走强，离岸和在岸均刷新逾一年来新高 中国基金报记者 忆山 人民币持续走强！ 12 月 15 日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 为 1 美元对 人民币 7.0656 元，较上个交易日调贬 18 个基点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，人民币走势偏强会提振资本市场信心，也会吸引更多海 外资金流入国内资本市场，并与汇市走强形成良性联动。他认为短期内人民币还会处于偏强 运行状态，后续要重点关注美元走势、人民币中间价调控力度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度 和节奏。 展望后续，外资机构和人士普遍认为，人民币或将持续升值，不过节奏略有分化。 澳新银行驻新加坡亚洲研究主管 Khoon Goh 预计，人民币兑美元汇率将在 2026 年保持温 和升值，年末预计将升至 6.95 一线。 12 月 15 日，在岸人民币兑美元汇率升至 7.05 ，达 2024 年 10 月 8 日以来的最强水平。 截至发稿，报 7.0505 。 离 岸 人 民 币 兑 美 元 汇 率 再 度 升 破 7.0 5 ， 创 2 0 2 4 年 1 0 月 3 日 以 来 新 高 。 截 至 发 稿 ...