Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold, silver, and palladium are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recent Fed easing prospects and geopolitical risks in Venezuela, Israel, and other regions have supported the strength of precious metals, with each variety hitting new highs and forming a resonant breakthrough [1] - After the short - term sharp rise, market volatility will increase during the Christmas holiday when the overseas market is closed, so attention should be paid to position control [1] - In 2026, platinum is expected to remain in short supply, and the supply gap of palladium will narrow significantly. The supply side of both is fragile. With a long time until delivery, funds are actively bullish on the future price of platinum, and the price difference between platinum and palladium exceeds 130 yuan/gram [2] - In the bull market cycle of precious metals, funds have strong control, and the mid - line strategy is to increase positions on dips. The implied volatility (IV) of platinum and palladium options continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling put options [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Geopolitical and Policy News - US officials suggest they prefer sanctions over military action against Venezuela [3] - Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the territorial issue remains unresolved, and Russia wants to modify the US proposal [3] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda suggests a possible further interest rate hike next year and expresses increasing confidence in achieving the sustainable price target [3] Market Performance - The preparation for the delivery of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is progressing smoothly. The overnight overseas palladium price plunged, and panic spread. The platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened lower with a gap. Palladium fluctuated weakly near the daily limit, while platinum opened low and closed higher, with strong long - short competition among funds [2]

【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 【要闻速递】 摘要今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市，上海黄金交易所黄金t+d12月25日(周四)早盘盘初下跌0.55%报 1004.08元/克。 希夫的通胀警告招致特朗普直接回击。本月早些时候，希夫做客《Fox and Friends Weekend》后，特朗 普于12月6日在Truth Social发帖，斥其为"憎恨特朗普的失败者""混蛋"，并反驳物价上涨论，称部分州 汽油价已降至每加仑1.99美元，物价"正大幅下降"。 今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市，上海黄金交易所黄金t+d12月25日(周四)早盘盘初下跌0.55%报 1004.08元/克。 希夫驳斥称，仅盯燃料价格忽视整体负担压力，"通胀正在上升，几乎没下降可能，只会走高"。他以租 金、保险及服务成本上涨为例，指通胀仍深植经济。回应特朗普时，希夫强调通胀源于历届政府政策选 择，非政治言辞："拜登引发'负担能力危机'时，获特朗普第一任期'助力'，且未解决问题反加剧"。他 总结，核心不在言辞而在货币政策，警告即便有相反说法，降息与资产负债表再扩张或于2026年推高通 胀。 黄金T+D价格延续短期回调，主力合约承压于关键 ...

今日周四（12月25日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于1007附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂1007.36元/ 克，跌幅.0.52%，最高触及1014.28元/克，最低下探1003.12元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看跌走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 以色列外交部长萨尔通过社交媒体发声，称以政府强烈反对部分国家对以方在约旦河西岸扩建定居点决 议的批评。以方声明强调，"外国政府无权限制犹太人在以色列土地上居住的权利，任何此类呼吁在道 德上错误且带有歧视犹太人的性质。"此前，24日法国、德国、加拿大等14国发表联合声明，谴责以色 列近日批准在约旦河西岸新建犹太人定居点的决定。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金主力合约今日承压回调，失守关键支撑位，短期面临调整压力，但中长期上行逻辑未改，受美联储 降息预期及地缘风险支撑。关注5日与10日均线交叉信号，若金价企稳均线上方，可能重拾涨势； MACD指标需警惕红柱收缩风险。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- < END > 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor. Platinum and palladium are also rated ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US Q3 GDP recorded 4.3%, the fastest growth in two years, causing a temporary decline in gold and silver prices, which later recovered. Geopolitical risks in regions like the US - Venezuela and Israel - Iran have intensified, and the new all - time high of gold has strengthened the overall trend of precious metals [1] - Although the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has issued policies to increase margin requirements and limit positions for platinum and palladium, the actual delivery business will start on May 1, 2026, so long - position funds remain active. Long - position funds in the far - month contracts are crowded, and platinum and palladium hit the daily limit [1] - The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets has attracted wide attention. The price difference between domestic and foreign active contracts is expected to attract cross - market arbitrage funds when it exceeds 40 yuan/gram. The market is mainly driven by domestic funds, and the foreign platinum price has hit a new high. The upper price limit lacks a reference range, so focus on tracking capital movements. With the Christmas holiday approaching, foreign trading volume will decline, and attention should be paid to capital trends. Tonight, focus on the early - released US weekly initial jobless claims [1] Other Key Points from Related Information ADP Employment Report - In the four weeks ending December 6, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,500 jobs per week [2] Statements from Trump and Fed Candidates - Trump said those who disagree with him will never become Fed chair [2] - Hassett, the next Fed candidate, predicted that monthly new jobs may return to over 100,000 and that the Fed is far behind the curve on interest - rate cuts [2] Suggestions from the US Treasury Secretary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that the Fed should discuss adjusting the inflation target to a range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% [3] Holiday Trading Suspensions - Due to the Christmas Eve holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will close early at 2:00 am Beijing time on the 25th; the Brent crude oil futures contract trading on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end at 3:00 am Beijing time on the 25th; the US Treasury bond futures contract trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end at 3:30 am Beijing time on the 25th [3]

当周生生、周大福的足金饰品标价单日跳涨35元/克，当国际金价以70%的年涨幅碾压多数资产类别，我们正见证一个历史性时刻——12月24日，现货黄金 首次突破4500美元/盎司关口。这场持续两年的黄金牛市背后，究竟是美联储政策转向的狂欢，还是新一轮泡沫的前兆？ 三大引擎推动金价狂飙 美国11月失业率创四年新低的信号，叠加核心CPI数据不及预期，彻底点燃了市场对美联储降息的押注。东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞指出，劳动力 市场降温与美元指数走弱形成双重利好，而日本央行加息利空出尽后，更多资金选择回归黄金的避险港湾。 国际投行的乐观预期更添一把火。摩根士丹利预测2026年金价将达4800美元，摩根大通甚至上看5055美元，高盛则在最新报告中给出4900美元的目标价。这 些预测的核心逻辑在于：全球央行持续购金（预计2026年月均70吨）、美元霸权松动以及地缘政治风险的长期化。 历史警示：黄金并非永动机 就在市场一片沸腾之际，上海半夏投资李蓓的抛售宣言显得格外刺耳。她提醒投资者回顾1980-2000年的二十年熊市，当时央行抛售潮曾让黄金跌去三分之 二市值。更值得警惕的是，俄罗斯央行近期出售黄金的操作，与人民币国际化进程 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-24燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 利多： 1. 俄罗斯燃油出口限制 2. 美俄会谈取消，对俄石油相关企业发起制裁 利空： 行情驱动：供应端受地缘风险影响与需求中性共振 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏；战争风险升级 燃料油： 1、基本面：据多位贸易人士称，亚洲高硫燃料油整体市场将继续受到来自下游船用燃料油相对稳定的加油需求 的支撑，但炼油厂对原料的需求疲软以及近期供应充足将对基本面构成压力；贸易人士表示，全球最大的船用燃 料加注中心新加坡预计在未来几周迎来稳定的低硫燃料油调油组分到货，将持续增加当地现有的库存；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油344.27 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and show a stronger trend intraday, with an overall outlook of stronger operation due to increased geopolitical risks [1] - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The US pressure on Venezuela may lead to a global crude oil supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices, and the domestic crude oil futures may maintain a stable pattern on Wednesday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - **Short - term**: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile (within one week) [1] - **Medium - term**: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile (from two weeks to one month) [1] - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to show a stronger trend, with a reference view of stronger operation [1][5] 3.2 Price Movement Driving Logic - The main driving force for the recent oil price rebound is the sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation. The US government has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned tankers and plans to seize more tankers. About 600 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela's oil exports in November were about 600,000 barrels per day. The decrease in the number of tankers going to Venezuela has led to concerns about a global supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices [5]

Group 1 - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 12.02 tons to 1064.56 tons, marking the highest level since June 2022 and the largest single-day increase since October 17, indicating strong central bank gold purchasing demand and inflow of safe-haven funds [1] - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, added over 533 tons in a single day, the largest increase in nearly two years, bringing total holdings to 16599.25 tons, reflecting strong buying sentiment [1] Group 2 - Current U.S. economic performance and employment market show structural divergence, but overall recession risk remains low; the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation targets may lead to increased market expectations for monetary easing, influenced by geopolitical risks and trade tensions, potentially supporting long-term gold price increases [3] - Short-term market may adjust to a new balance of low supply and low growth in the U.S. employment market, which could suppress gold price upward momentum; further attention is needed on U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve officials' statements to gauge market sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold continues to rise, reaching a new historical high of $4497.754 per ounce, with a current price of $4475.24 per ounce, reflecting a 0.72% increase [1][8]. Gold Market Performance - COMEX gold futures initially broke through the $4500, $4510, and $4520 per ounce levels before retreating, currently priced at $4507.8 per ounce, up 0.5% [3][8]. - On December 22, spot gold surpassed $4400 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.13% to $4480.6 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increasing by 2.37% to $69.09 per ounce, indicating the potential for the largest annual gains since 1979 [3][9]. Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surged, with several brands exceeding 1400 yuan per gram. For instance, Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang have raised their prices to 1403 yuan per gram, while Lao Miao Gold has increased its price to 1402 yuan per gram [3][10]. Other Precious Metals - Other precious metals have also seen significant increases, with spot silver reaching $70 per ounce for the first time on December 23. Additionally, platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit their daily limit of 10%, marking new highs since their listing [10]. Market Regulation Measures - In response to the overheated trading environment, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has set a position limit of 500 contracts for non-futures company members or clients for platinum and palladium contracts [10]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented several risk prevention measures for silver futures, including adjustments to trading limits and transaction fees, aimed at cooling the market and promoting rational trading [11]. Economic Indicators and Predictions - Analysts note that the U.S. November CPI and core CPI growth rates have dropped to multi-year lows, reinforcing expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve policy, alongside geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases supporting rising precious metal prices [11]. - According to Bloomberg's forecast, both gold and silver are expected to experience their strongest annual gains since 1979, with gold prices having surged approximately two-thirds this year due to central bank purchases and inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [11][12]. Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against concerns over the value of sovereign bonds and currencies, driven by "devaluation trades" [12]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, suggesting that current forecasts may underestimate risks and highlighting a potential shift towards broader asset diversification among private investors [12][13]. Risks and Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley warns that high silver prices may negatively impact photovoltaic demand, while cautioning about potential technical selling pressure from the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing starting January 8, which could lead to significant forced selling in silver and gold [13].