这绝非孤例，把视角拉高，俯瞰2026年的政策棋局，你会发现这不是市场在发神经，而是一场国家主刀 的、针对城市资产价值的精密手术。 文|隔雾 编辑|隔雾 前言 推土机一路向外环狂奔，把核心区的老房子甩在身后慢慢腐烂，这曾是过去二十年中国楼市雷打不动的 铁律。 人们笃信"喜新厌旧"是资本的天性，直到2025年下半年，上海楼市反手给了这种惯性思维一记响亮的耳 光。 远郊新盘的售楼处里，销售员闲得只能拍苍蝇；而在静安区柳营路，那些外立面像得了皮肤病、管线老 得像血管硬化的"老破小"，成交价却在半年内垂直向上。 钱的嗅觉，比狗灵 春江水暖鸭先知？不，钱最先知，2025年下半年，上海楼市上演了一出怪诞的"虹吸大戏"。 静安区柳营路片区，原本死守在每平米4万元的老破小，突然变成了饿狼眼里的肉。 买家根本不在乎墙角发霉，也不介意楼道昏暗，他们挥舞着钞票进场，硬生生把年底成交价砸到了8万 元以上。 徐汇核心区的日晖二村，涨幅飙到24%；枫林新村更狠，单价直接撞破9万大关，中介圈子里流传的数 据令人咋舌：这群疯狂扫货的人里，四成是职业投资客。 恰恰相反，他们精明得可怕，这群猎手赌的是"预期"，算盘珠子在他们手里拨得飞快。 远郊新 ...

政策持续放松，二手房环比回暖 ——20260116 房地产行业周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | 保利发展 | 6.71 | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 6.6 | 16.0 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | | 招商 ...

建筑装饰 2026 年 01 月 25 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 25 年固定资产投资承压，关注年初开门红效果 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20260119-20260123） 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 - 1.1 建筑行业周涨幅+1.88%，子行业钢结构表现最好 上周建筑行业涨幅+1.88%，跑赢上证综指（+0.84%）、深证成指（+1.11%）、中小 板（+0.87%）、创业板（-0.34%）、沪深 300（-0.62 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the integration of urban public transport systems, specifically the deepening of metro and bus network integration, with a target of adding over 40 kilometers of rail transit and achieving a 93% transfer rate within 50 meters between bus and rail [2] - It outlines the goal of completing the renovation of over 300 old residential communities and installing more than 800 elevators in old buildings [4] - The article highlights the aim to create 20 new regional elderly care service centers and increase the proportion of accessible childcare services to 68% [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the commitment to pollution prevention, including increasing the proportion of new energy vehicles and enhancing air quality through meticulous dust control and regional cooperation [5] - It mentions the construction of a resilient city framework to enhance disaster response capabilities, including measures for flood prevention and recovery from extreme weather events [6] - The article also details plans for urban beautification, including the creation of 40 new waterfront spaces and 1,000 kilometers of greenways, as well as the establishment of 100 new community micro-parks [5][6]

Core Insights - The report outlines Beijing's economic and social development plans for 2026, marking the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and highlighting significant changes in urban construction and governance [1] Group 1: Urban Development and Infrastructure - Beijing will continue to enhance the comprehensive carrying capacity and ecological functions of the five new plain cities: Shunyi, Changping, Daxing, Yizhuang, and Fangshan, with a focus on industry cultivation and infrastructure improvement [2] - Key infrastructure projects include the construction of the Beijing-Mi Highway, expansion of the Ding-Si Road, and the establishment of educational and healthcare facilities such as the Beijing Fourth Experimental School and the first phase of the BOE Hospital [2] Group 2: Urban Renewal Initiatives - The city will implement various urban renewal policies, including the renovation of over 40 old factories and industrial parks, and the installation of more than 800 elevators in old buildings [3] - A focus will be placed on supporting residents in self-renovation projects and the comprehensive renewal of specific districts like Magician's Alley and Cotton Flower Area [3] Group 3: Smart City Development - Beijing aims to enhance urban governance through smart city initiatives, including the integration of public transport systems and the construction of new metro lines, with a target of increasing the transfer rate between bus and metro to 93% [4] - The city will also work on digital governance, establishing a national data factor comprehensive pilot zone and creating a high-quality data industry cluster [4][5] Group 4: Ecological and Green City Initiatives - The city will accelerate the construction of a garden city, implementing projects aimed at improving air quality, water management, and solid waste reduction [6] - Specific initiatives include the completion of 300,000 acres of forest health management and the construction of various parks and green spaces, including the "Rose Ring" around the Fourth Ring Road [6]

Macro and Financial - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in Q4 [5] - The Ministry of Finance has launched a package of policies to promote domestic demand, focusing on expanding private investment and boosting consumer spending [6][7] - The People's Bank of China indicates there is still room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026 [7] - The first Loan Prime Rate (LPR) of 2026 remains unchanged at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, with potential for future reductions [7] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued new guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, effective March 1, 2026, aiming to shift the industry focus from scale to investor returns [14] - The CSRC has also imposed a fine of 5.11 billion yuan on an individual for manipulating stock prices, alongside a three-year market ban [15] - Shanghai has introduced 18 measures to enhance the trading capacity of non-ferrous metal commodities, aiming to improve global resource allocation and pricing influence [16] Precious Metals Market - The global metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold and silver reaching their highest weekly gains since 2020, and silver prices surpassing 100 dollars per ounce for the first time [17][20] - The weakening of the US dollar has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the rise in precious metal prices [20] Business and Industry - Beijing has issued measures to encourage capable enterprises to engage in mergers and acquisitions within the satellite data industry, aiming to create globally competitive companies [21] - The first A-share IPO of 2026 has been accepted, with Shanghai Suiruan Technology aiming to raise 6 billion yuan for AI chip development [22] - The commercial aerospace company Zhongke Aerospace has completed its IPO counseling, marking a significant step in its market entry [23]

Macro and Financial - The Chinese economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, reaching a GDP of 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in Q4 [6] - A comprehensive policy package to promote domestic demand has been launched, focusing on expanding private investment and boosting consumer spending, including a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment [7][8] - The People's Bank of China indicates there is still room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026 [9] - The first Loan Prime Rate (LPR) of 2026 remains unchanged at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, with potential for future reductions [10] - Major banks have announced the implementation of new personal consumption loan subsidy policies, extending the policy period to December 31, 2026 [11] - New measures to support urban renewal have been introduced, focusing on enhancing planning adaptability and optimizing transitional support policies [12] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, effective March 1, 2026, aimed at shifting the industry focus from scale to investor returns [16][17] - The CSRC has issued its first penalty of 2026, imposing a fine of 5.11 billion yuan on an individual for manipulating stock prices [18] - Shanghai has introduced 18 measures to enhance the trading capacity of non-ferrous metal commodities, aiming to improve global resource allocation and pricing influence [19] - The global metal market has seen significant price increases, with gold and silver reaching their highest weekly gains since 2020, and silver prices surpassing 100 dollars per ounce [20][21] - A significant amount of 50 trillion yuan in term deposits is set to mature in 2026, with a high retention rate expected [22] Business and Industry - Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang has made a visit to China, marking his first trip in 2026 [27] - The first A-share IPO of 2026 has been accepted, with Suir Technology aiming to raise 6 billion yuan for AI chip development [28] - The commercial aerospace leader, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, has completed its IPO counseling [29] - Beijing has issued measures to encourage mergers and acquisitions among satellite data companies to enhance the industry chain [31]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the preparations made by the Xicheng District delegation ahead of the Fourth Session of the 16th Beijing People's Congress, focusing on key issues such as the protection of the Beijing central axis, urban renewal, and the enhancement of public services [1] Group 1: Preparation for the Congress - The Fourth Session of the 16th Beijing People's Congress is set to open on January 25 [1] - The Xicheng District has conducted thorough preparatory work in alignment with the capital's core functional area development [1] - A detailed inspection plan has been developed, featuring multiple inspection routes and key points of interest [1] Group 2: Focus Areas - Key topics of focus include the protection of the Beijing central axis, urban renewal, and the improvement of public services [1] - The delegation has selected three representative new construction achievements for on-site research: Beijing Bay Middle School, Beijing Renzhe High School, and Zhonghai Dajixiang [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][29]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives emphasizing the stabilization of the real estate market. The report notes a positive shift in industry sentiment and anticipates favorable policy developments in the future [3][29]. - The report identifies attractive valuation levels for quality companies, with some firms' price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows, making them appealing investment opportunities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities experienced a 0.6% decrease in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 17.7% increase [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date figures show a 9.6% decline compared to the previous January [13][29]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [23][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote urban renewal, with various cities actively developing urban renewal plans. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of high-quality real estate development and the need for tailored policies [29][33]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new residential sales area down 8.7% [29][33]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have released their expected net profit for 2025, with notable losses projected for companies like Jianfa Holdings and Jindi Group, while Poly Development anticipates a profit of 1.03 billion yuan [37][29]. - Financing activities are active among various firms, with China Overseas Development issuing bonds totaling 25 billion yuan, and Vanke's bond extension proposal receiving approval [37][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives aimed at stabilizing the market. The emphasis on "high-quality development" suggests a shift in policy that could lead to positive changes in the industry [3][4]. - The report notes that the current valuation levels for quality companies are historically low, making them attractive investment opportunities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The transaction volume for new homes in first and second-tier cities decreased by 0.6%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 17.7% [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. Year-on-year, January transactions are down by 9.6% [4][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69, indicating a healthy demand relative to new listings. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [4][24]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights a series of government initiatives aimed at promoting urban renewal, with a focus on addressing key issues such as planning, funding, and operational challenges. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has indicated that there is significant potential for high-quality development in the real estate sector [3][31]. - Specific policies include Shanghai's "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy for enhancing urban quality and development [3][31]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have reported their expected net profits for 2025, with notable figures including China Vanke's bond extension proposal and various financing activities from companies like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [3][41].