（原标题：伟伟道来｜ 如何面对8月7日之后的世界） 已经和美国达成关税协议的国家，要向美国缴纳3种费用：一是输美商品被征收关税，二是承诺向美国 投资，三是承诺购买数额巨大的美国商品。 4个月的关税战中出现了一些匪夷所思的现象，尤其是特朗普的率性而为、朝令夕改给人印象深刻，但 总体而言，美国政府的逻辑是清晰的、步骤是正常的，也基本取得了他们希望取得的结果。 至于这个结果对美国及全世界而言利弊如何，众声喧哗、莫衷一是。 笔者试分析如下： 第一，美国的关税围墙既然立起来了，就不大可能降低或撤销。接下来，如何进入、经营美国市场，是 企业各显神通的时候了。 关税围墙既立，关税收入将大幅度提高，这个效果可以说是立竿见影。事实上，从4月份开始，美国的 关税收入已经节节攀升了。根据美国财政部公布的数据，4月份美国海关净收入为156亿美元，5月份为 222亿美元，6月份为273亿美元。摩根士丹利在其最新研报中预测，美国海关净收入年化后高达3270亿 美元。 可以预料的是，2028年之后，不论谁当美国总统，这块每年3000多亿美元的蛋糕，美国政府只会想办法 让其增加，不可能减少。 不出意外的话，8月7日之后，由美国总统特朗普发起 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by President Trump is expected to conclude after August 7, with a clear structure of tariffs established for different categories of countries and goods [1][2]. Summary by Sections Tariff Structure - Trump has set up four tariff categories for goods imported into the U.S.: 10% for friendly countries, 20% for normal countries, 30% for unfriendly countries, and a 40% transit tax for goods routed through third countries [2]. Revenue Impact - U.S. customs revenue has significantly increased during the trade war, with net revenue rising from $15.6 billion in April to $27.3 billion in June. Morgan Stanley predicts an annualized customs revenue of $327 billion [4]. Investment Commitments - The commitments from trade partners to invest and purchase U.S. goods are substantial, with Japan and the EU alone promising $1.9 trillion. The total commitments from various partners could exceed $10 trillion [6][7]. Challenges for Chinese Companies - The 40% transit tax poses a significant challenge for Chinese companies that use third countries like Vietnam and Mexico to circumvent tariffs. The implementation of this policy is still pending due to the lack of a clear standard for determining the origin of goods [11][12]. Market Adaptation - Companies must adapt to the new trade environment by finding ways to enter and operate in the U.S. market effectively. This requires both innovation and collaboration among businesses [4][16].

转向国内，特朗普面临的挑战亦相当严峻。他在8月2日宣布开除美国劳工部统计局局长，并指责她操控数据，称之为一场"骗局"。这一举动缘于美国劳工部 公布的新就业数据，与特朗普期望的"赢学"相左。数据显示，新增就业人数仅为7.3万人，远低于市场预期的11万人，而失业率则有所上升，这些数据表明 美国的就业市场正在降温，与特朗普声称的关税战带来的就业增长相悖。 在八月初的几天里，特朗普的处境可谓相当不佳，不论是国内还是国际的局势都呈现出负面趋势。这种压力让特朗普不得不重新审视与中国之间的关系，因 为他意识到，该困境中多少与中国有着密切的关联。那么，究竟特朗普面临了什么样的困境呢？ 首先，一个重大的噩耗来源于他自己放出去的消息。特朗普再次调整了与俄罗斯签署和平协议的最后期限，把原本定于五十天后的日期提前至8月8日之前。 这个日期的选择非常巧妙，正好在特朗普计划于8月1日实施的全面关税政策生效之日，虽然有一个七天的缓冲期，实际上也就是说，真正的关税增收将从8 月7日才开始执行。这几天实际上成为其他国家的最后一次机会。 而特朗普所称的"二级关税"，无疑又是给中国施加压力的手段。在第三轮中美经贸谈判结束后，美国财政部长贝森特再次 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalation of trade tensions between the US and various countries, particularly India and the EU, due to proposed tariff increases by President Trump [3][4][6]. - Trump announced plans to significantly raise tariffs on Indian goods, currently at 25%, in response to India's purchase of Russian oil [3][4]. - The EU is also facing potential tariff increases, with Trump threatening a rise to 35% if obligations are not met, up from a previous rate of 15% [5][6]. Group 2 - Brazil's President Lula vowed to defend the country's interests against new US tariffs, asserting that the US has no right to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods [7][8]. - Brazil plans to utilize all available resources, including the WTO, to challenge the US's tariff actions [8]. - Despite the recent tariff deadlines, trade disputes continue, with ongoing litigation and negotiations expected [9]. Group 3 - The article highlights concerns from economists regarding the negative impact of tariffs on the US economy, predicting a slowdown in growth and an increase in unemployment rates by 2025 and 2026 [12][13]. - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that tariffs could reduce the US GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points annually and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 to 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026 [12]. - Tariffs are expected to raise average household spending in the US by $2,400 by 2025, particularly affecting clothing prices [13]. Group 4 - The article mentions the potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair by Trump, indicating dissatisfaction with current monetary policy [14]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with a 89% probability of a 25 basis point cut, while some analysts warn against this consensus [14][15]. - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with over 800,000 foreign workers leaving the US, but the unemployment rate remains stable [15].

经济学家表示，美国已经进入到了飓风眼。其表示，在经历了几个月的警告之后，7 月份的就业报告证实，经济放缓不是即将来临，而且已经到来。 特朗普原计划的很好，称这场全球关税战的本意是让制造业回流美国。可是没想到，目的没达成，这场关税的成本都转嫁到了美国人的头上。 举一些例子：沃尔玛、宝洁、福特、百思买、阿迪达斯、耐克、美泰、Shein、Temu、斯坦利、布莱克德克都在关税战后宣布涨价。高盛的经济学家估计， 海外出口商仅吸收了关税带来的上涨成本的五分之一，而美国和美国企业则承担了剩下的四分之一。正可谓羊毛出在羊身上。可这一次，剪羊毛的手伸向了 美国人自己。 特朗普要么停下脚步重新审视，要么只能带着美国经济继续撞墙。选择，已经不只是经济问题，而是他的政治前途问题了。 我们看回这场关税战，当欧盟、英国、日本早早选择"签约自保"，给自己的企业撑起保护伞时，特朗普的棋盘正在迅速缩小。 对华关税还没定，美国经济先崩了。一意孤行的特朗普不敢赌了，必须得停下脚步，好好审视一下接下来的决策了。 众所周知，日前中美关税谈崩，无奈之下，约定协议继续延期一个月达成。目前和美国达成贸易协议的国家或组织有，欧盟英国日本等。中国墨西哥等国暂 ...

文 丨 郑可书 沈方伟 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 王姗姗 美国今年对中国新加的关税暂时降回到 30% ，但特别针对中国跨境电商小额包裹设置的壁垒没 有降低——以前免税清关的小件包裹，如今要付货值 90% 或着每件 150 美元的关税。 一单一发的小包跨境快递曾经是中国跨境电商最低成本的物流渠道，而美国则是全球最大消费 市场。《晚点 LatePost》独家了解到，Shein 今年上半年商品成交额（GMV）约 270 亿美元， 同比增长率维持在 15-20%。而上线三年不到的 Temu，其上半年全球 GMV 为 350 亿美元左 右，同比增长率 50%。 据一位接近 Temu 的人士，今年 Temu 全年 GMV 目标是 1000 亿美元，超过拼多多成立第三年 的水平。Shein 去年 GMV 约为 520 亿美元，年初定下的全年 GMV 目标是 "微超 600 亿美 元"。 跨境电商规模效应已经建立，平台有了很多选择。 Shein 和 Temu 否认了与 GMV 相关的数据。 提前两个月的一场演练，给了 Temu 和 Shein 更多准备时间 今年 4 月关税战爆发前，Shein、Temu 以及平台上的商家已 ...

Group 1: Tariff War and Economic Implications - President Trump announced plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil and weapons, which he claims is for profit [1][3] - Trump threatened additional punitive tariffs on India, stating that if India continues its current purchasing behavior, a 25% import tariff would be imposed [3] - India's government responded by emphasizing that its oil imports from Russia are part of long-term contracts and are necessary for stabilizing energy costs for consumers [4] Group 2: Employment Data and Market Reactions - Trump accused the U.S. Labor Department of manipulating employment data to favor Democrats, leading to his decision to dismiss the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] - The recent non-farm payroll report showed only a 73,000 increase in jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [8][9] - The disappointing employment data has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, leading to a spike in market volatility and increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [9][10] Group 3: Precious Metals Market Trends - Following the employment report, gold and silver prices increased, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.85% to $3428.6 per ounce [8] - The market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 94.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September [8] - Analysts predict that if the U.S. economy continues to weaken, it could lead to a favorable environment for precious metals, with gold prices potentially breaking above $3500 per ounce in the second half of the year [10][11]

Group 1 - Major tech companies like Meta and Microsoft have shown solid performance, while Apple has also delivered stable results despite recent weaker performance [1] - Overall, most companies in this earnings season have seen their stock prices decline after reporting, except for those that significantly exceeded expectations [1] - The market appears to have priced in strong earnings already, leading to high valuations and increased sensitivity to negative news [3] Group 2 - Recent developments in three key areas: fiscal debt issuance, TGA (Treasury General Account) rebuilding, and interest rate expectations have been observed [4][6] - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue a net $1 trillion in debt in Q3, with an additional $590 billion in Q4, while maintaining a consistent issuance structure for medium to long-term bonds [4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its interest rate levels, with no preset plans for a rate cut in September, emphasizing a data-driven approach to future decisions [10][12] Group 3 - Economic indicators suggest a state of "stagflation" characterized by rising prices, stagnant employment growth, and weakening domestic demand, despite a reported GDP growth of 3% [16][17] - The market seems to be ignoring the potential for sustained high interest rates in the second half of the year, focusing instead on narratives of fiscal and monetary easing [18] - The performance of individual companies, particularly in the advertising sector, indicates that the economic situation may not be as dire as suggested by macroeconomic data [18] Group 4 - The virtual investment portfolio "Alpha Dolphin" has not made any adjustments and has outperformed benchmark indices, with a 92.6% absolute return since inception [19][22] - The portfolio's performance is attributed to a defensive asset allocation, with significant holdings in gold, cash, and U.S. Treasuries [24] - Upcoming earnings reports from various companies, including AMD, Disney, and Uber, are expected to provide insights into the economic landscape and sector performance [25][26]

Core Points - The U.S. government has reached an agreement with Pakistan to assist in developing its oil reserves, amidst ongoing trade tensions globally [1][3] - The announcement comes after recent meetings between U.S. Secretary of State and Pakistani officials, indicating a shift from tariff discussions to oil cooperation [3] - The U.S. is likely to select major oil companies, such as ExxonMobil and Shell, as partners for this initiative, given their political connections and financial contributions to the Republican Party [8][10] Industry Insights - Global oil consumption is projected to reach 101 million barrels per day in 2024, with the U.S. leading at 18.995 million barrels per day, despite a slight decline [6] - The latest Fortune Global 500 list includes 45 oil and gas companies, with Chinese firms dominating the top ranks, highlighting the competitive landscape in the oil industry [7][8] - The potential for U.S. companies to gain access to Pakistan's oil resources could shift the balance of power in the global energy market, especially against the backdrop of U.S.-China relations [16][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, causing the gold price to strengthen again. If the Fed restarts the rate - cut channel, the gold price will return to a bull market in the medium and long term, but it is in a box - oscillation pattern in the short term [1][6] - Trump's tariff policies may lead to a stagflation effect, and the optimistic sentiment in the market about the impact of these policies on the economy is fading [2][4] - The weakening of the July non - farm payrolls data has increased the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, and the probability has risen from 40% to 75%. Trump is angry about the non - farm data and blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the international gold price rebounded to $3416 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price rebounded to 781 yuan per gram. Affected by the poor non - farm payrolls data on Friday, the gold price rose again [1][6] Fed Interest Rate Policy - At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fifth time since early 2025. There were two dissenting votes, indicating deepening internal differences. Fed Chair Powell said future policy adjustments depend on all evidence, and his speech was considered hawkish [1] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump imposed additional tariffs of 10% - 41% on imports from multiple countries and regions. These tariffs may penetrate into economic data in the coming months and cause a stagflation effect [3][4] Non - farm Payrolls Data - In July, non - farm employment increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 100,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The three - month growth rate was as low as 35,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month. The weakening of the employment market has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [5]