Group 1 - Economists have revised their outlook for the U.S. economy, expecting stronger growth and job creation, with a lower risk of recession and milder inflation compared to three months ago [1][2] - The average forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in Q4 is now 1%, up from 0.8% in April, but still half of the January expectation [1][2] - The probability of a recession in the next 12 months has decreased to 33% from 45% in April, but is higher than the 22% in January [1][2] Group 2 - Recent economic data has shown resilience, with average job growth of 150,000 over the past three months and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [2][3] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8% year-over-year in May, the lowest in four years, although still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2][3] - Economists expect that Trump's tariff policies will contribute 0.7 percentage points to inflation by Q4 2025, despite a lower average inflation forecast of 3% for December compared to 3.6% in April [3][4] Group 3 - The labor market outlook has improved since April, with an expected average monthly job increase of 74,070, up from 54,619 in April [4] - Economists predict the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% by December, down from the previous forecast of 4.7% [4] - The impact of immigration policy changes is expected to offset economic growth contributions from Trump's policies, with a reduction of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]

人民银行副行长邹澜7月14日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，各方面对美联储的货币政策变化非常关注， 近期美国经济增速有所放缓，但物价水平仍然高于美联储的目标水平，关税政策进一步增加了美国通胀 走势的不确定性，影响美联储降息节奏，美元指数、美债收益率波动的加大，对全球金融市场都产生了 一定的溢出效应。相比较而言，我国金融市场表现出较强韧性，运行总体平稳，影响汇率的因素是多元 的，比如经济增长、货币政策、金融市场、地缘政治、风险事件等。当前美元走势仍然有不确定性，但 中国国内基本面持续向好，人民币汇率在双向波动中保持基本稳定具有坚实基础。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. inflation is showing signs of rising again after months of stagnation, driven by increasing import costs and the upcoming release of key economic data, including the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales report [1][5] - Analysts expect the June core CPI to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, marking the largest increase in five months, with a year-over-year increase projected at 2.9%, the first rebound since January [3][4] - The impact of tariffs on domestic prices is a critical concern, as the market seeks to understand how these policies are affecting inflation [3][5] Inflation and Pricing Dynamics - The core CPI's expected increase reflects potential tariff transmission effects, particularly in goods like appliances and furniture, while service prices remain weak [3][4] - The current labor market shows signs of cooling, with slower wage growth making consumers more sensitive to price changes, complicating retailers' decisions on passing costs to consumers [4][5] - The interplay between consumer resilience and pricing pressure is crucial for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, especially with the next policy meeting approaching [4][5] Retail Sales and Economic Growth - Following the CPI data, the U.S. Commerce Department will release June retail sales data, which is expected to show a slight rebound after two months of decline [5] - Weak consumer spending momentum aligns with a cooling job market, and lackluster retail performance could support the narrative of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy [5] - The upcoming CPI and retail sales data will provide a comprehensive view of the U.S. economy's current state, balancing rising inflation pressures against slowing growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, criticized Europe's declining competitiveness compared to the US and Asia, highlighting a significant drop in Europe's GDP share from 90% to 65% of the US over the past 10 to 15 years [2] Group 1: European Competitiveness - Dimon emphasized the need for Europe to reduce trade barriers and improve capital markets and banking union to attract investment and boost growth [2] - He pointed out the "sovereignty deficit" in Europe regarding energy, critical minerals, data centers, satellite communications, and digital services due to rising geopolitical tensions and deteriorating trade relations with the US [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Investor sentiment towards Europe has turned positive due to expectations of significant fiscal stimulus in Germany, increased defense spending, interest rate cuts, and relative political stability compared to the US [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, the EU faces challenges in implementing growth reforms and solidifying trade relations with the US, with ongoing tariff agreements remaining unresolved [3] Group 3: US Market Dynamics - Dimon noted a complacency in the current market, with investors seemingly indifferent to the potential impacts of new tariffs announced by President Trump, which include a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports and copper, and a 200% tariff threat on the pharmaceutical industry [3] - He expressed concerns about rising inflation in the US, suggesting that the probability of interest rate hikes is higher than most expect, estimating it at 40%-50% [4]

Core Insights - Since 2025, the London and Shanghai gold indices have increased by 26.75% and 25.82% respectively, with recent weekly changes of 1.61% and 1.39% [1] - The U.S. CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and has since shown a downward trend, with a recent CPI of 2.4% in May 2023, slightly below expectations [1] - The balance of gold supply and demand remains tight, with increased investment demand contributing to a reduction in the global gold supply's looseness in 2024 [1] Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees increased by 0.3% in May 2025, remaining stable for three consecutive months [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice this year, with a potential rate cut in September 2025 [1] Market Dynamics - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Congress is expected to increase the fiscal deficit, potentially weakening the dollar in the long term while supporting short-term growth [1] - Central bank gold purchases, ETF investments, and a weak dollar are anticipated to support gold prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact due to factors such as a weakening dollar and geopolitical instability driving central bank purchases [1]

Employment Data Insights - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, an increase of 3,000 from May, marking the second-highest monthly gain of the year[3] - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, down from a three-month plateau[3] - The average hourly wage growth slowed by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a lack of strong upward pressure on wages[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%, the lowest level in 2023, reflecting a continued decrease in labor supply[3] - Government employment surged by 73,000 in June, the highest increase in 15 months, while private sector job growth showed signs of cooling[3] - Job additions in the education and healthcare sectors were 51,000 and 20,000, respectively, both lower than the previous month[3] Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The necessity for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has significantly decreased due to strong employment data[3] - Future inflation levels will be influenced by fiscal stimulus effects and tariff directions, potentially leading to a steeper inflation trajectory[3] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" aims to stabilize consumer demand and enhance domestic manufacturing, which could tighten the labor market[3] Risks and Considerations - The potential for the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts remains, as the labor market shows mixed signals[4] - The dollar index is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of the year, influenced by the evolving economic landscape[3]

贝森特指出，推迟行动增加了美联储日后需要进一步降息的可能性，根据美联储之前的模型， 早就应该降低利率了。 而其他政府官员声称，国会即将通过的减税和支出法案将促进私营部门投资并提振美国经济， 他们认为，尽管关税可能会导致商品价格出现一次性上涨，但从长期来看，它不会导致通胀持 续上升。 此前，特朗普已多次抨击鲍威尔，他表示很快就会宣布接替鲍威尔的人选，并称现在他心里有 三到四位候选人，可能会成为下一任美联储主席。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间周四，美国财政部长贝森特表示， 特朗普政府将在今年秋季集中 精力选出美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，并称有很多优秀的候选人。 贝森特指出，利率政策由美联储来制定，但如果7月份不降息的话，到了9月份，恐怕降息幅 度可能会更高。 由于失业率较低，通胀高于2%的目标，美联储官员一直不愿将利率从目前的水平下调，他们 想要确实特朗普的关税计划不会进一步推高物价。 稍早公布的数据显示，美国6月非农就业人数大幅超预期，失业率意外下降，这导致美联储7 月降息的希望基本破灭。 贝森特表示，如果美联储官员想在这里犯个错误，不下调利率，那也无所谓。贝森特坚持认为 自美国政府加征关税"迄今为止"并没有加剧通胀 ...

日本央行审议委员高田创：计划从现在起到夏季，密切关注事态发展，包括美国通胀、美联储举措等。 ...

Group 1 - Trump criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting that the Fed's high interest rates are detrimental to the U.S. economy and seeking assistance from China [1][3] - The political strategy behind Trump's criticism is to shift blame for economic downturns onto the Federal Reserve, thereby rallying support from his voter base [3][4] - Trump's tariffs have contributed to rising inflation, which has made the Fed hesitant to lower interest rates, complicating the economic landscape [5][6] Group 2 - Trump plans to visit China with a large business delegation, similar to his previous visit to Saudi Arabia, aiming to secure investments and orders from China [10][11] - The expectation of significant Chinese investment is seen as unrealistic given the current tensions in U.S.-China relations and the lack of trust in U.S. economic policies [13] - The U.S. government's actions have led to a loss of global confidence in the American economy, making it difficult to expect foreign assistance without policy adjustments [13]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for a new "3 trillion" investment, focusing on the transition of demand towards the service sector as GDP per capita reaches between $10,000 and $30,000, while highlighting the current supply constraints in services and the investment gap that exists [4]. Group 1: Deep Dive Topics - The article emphasizes the need for investment in human capital to bridge the existing gaps in service supply and to facilitate the transition towards a service-oriented economy [4]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article explores the contrasting expectations and realities of inflation in the U.S. post-tariff implementation, questioning whether inflation will resurge in the latter half of the year [8]. - It also discusses the significance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period leading up to the 2035 vision, outlining potential focus areas for development [10]. - The article addresses geopolitical risks, specifically regarding Iran's decision to block the Strait of Hormuz, and evaluates the credibility of such threats and their potential market impacts [13]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - Domestic shipping prices have been on the rise, indicating a recovery in port freight volumes despite overall weak infrastructure construction activity [15]. - In the U.S., recent bond auctions have performed better than expected, while retail sales data for May fell short of projections, indicating mixed economic signals [20].