新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月26日，近期数字资产市场阴云密布，ZFX山海证券表示，加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数已连续14天陷 入"极度恐惧"区间。截至12月26日，该指数进一步下滑至20分，这不仅反映了自12月13日以来持续低迷 的投资氛围，更是该指数自2018年发布以来最长的一段低谷期。尽管当前比特币价格仍维持在8.8万美 元上方，远高于2022年末的水平，但市场情绪的脆弱程度却已超过了当年的FTX危机时期。 受宏观政策不确定性影响，市场正面临多重压力。ZFX山海证券认为，对全球贸易摩擦引发的关税担忧 是导致10月以来市场蒸发近5000亿美元市值的核心诱因。同时，美联储在2026年第一季度的货币政策动 向成为悬在投资者头上的达摩克利斯之剑。分析人士指出，若美联储选择暂停降息以应对通胀压力，比 特币价格可能面临下探至7万美元的风险。目前，比特币较10月初的峰值已回落近30%，市场波动性与 交易量的双重下滑进一步印证了情绪的冰点。 在散户参与度方面，ZFX山海证券表示，谷歌搜索量、维基百科词条浏览量以及社交媒体的讨论热度均 已降至熊市水平。这种"离场感"主要源于加密本土散户在经历多次市场波动与杠杆清 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the employment market recovered, weakening the rate - cut expectation. Domestically, the government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task next year. However, the domestic demand in November was weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: Although there is an expectation that the RMB will "break 7 and enter 6" in 2026, there are three potential risks. The RMB's real purchasing power is underestimated, and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread is the core trigger for its appreciation. The attractiveness of the capital market has become a key variable for the exchange - rate trend [4]. - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the market sentiment has improved, there is still pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end and tightened capital [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market. Hold mid - term long positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, weighing between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", waiting for a clear pre - holiday driver [9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: In the medium - to - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the large futures - spot price difference and light spot trading [16]. - **Gold & Silver**: In the short term, gold is in a relatively strong state after breaking through the previous high, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - to - long term, maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price has exceeded the expected range. After reaching a new high, the long - short game intensifies, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to run weakly. For cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock [24]. - **Tin**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to operate within the range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, beware of sharp fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, there are opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, with value for long - term bottom - fishing. Polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals, and new registered warehouse receipts should be monitored [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the rebar 2605 contract between 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract between 3000 - 3400 [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to run within a range, with limited upside space after valuation repair [33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, if steel mills resume production quickly, the supply - demand structure is expected to improve [35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and they may follow the steel - price trend [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is neutral. The "breaking 7" of the RMB brings macro - level benefits, and the price has rebounded from a low level. For offset - paper futures, the market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to wait and see or try short - term long positions [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the situation [43]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, with an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation, and the follow - up should focus on relevant news [56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - term出栏 pressure remains, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a strong trend [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market soybeans are waiting for the January USDA report, and the internal - market soybean meal should focus on the supply increase from state reserves. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they will continue to fluctuate. Palm oil is relatively strong in the sector, and attention should be paid to the production and biodiesel market information [70]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is gradually digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, some farmers are culling hens. It is recommended to take a light - position long position if betting on a rebound [74][75]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: In the short term, the jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is loose, and the price will be under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to issues such as the relaxation of rare - earth magnet exports to the US, TikTok's joint - venture establishment in the US, and opposed the US's additional 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0066 on the previous trading day, and the mid - price rose. Japan raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year and is approaching the 2% inflation target [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed up on the previous trading day, and the market sentiment improved. However, there is pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond closed down on Thursday, and the trading volume of medium - and long - term varieties continued to shrink. The market adheres to a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures market fluctuates between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", with spot - price increase games and geopolitical disturbances [9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to limit positions. The long - term prospects of platinum are good, but beware of short - term adjustment risks [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, while the domestic night - session was active. Silver rose sharply. Pay attention to the appointment of the new Fed chairman and economic data [17]. - **Copper**: The CSPT did not set a spot - purchase guidance price for Q1 2026. The copper price has reached a new high, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [18][19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term, alumina is in an over - supply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the aluminum - price trend [20][21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strong support below. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, but the short - term raw - material supply is tight. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They showed a slight correction and are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel - ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is relatively stable [23][24]. - **Tin**: It fluctuated widely at a high level. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to recover in December, and the demand has no obvious increase in the short term [25][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price decreased, and the trading volume and open interest declined. The industry is in a state of production increase and inventory reduction [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals. Pay attention to new registered warehouse receipts [27][28]. - **Lead**: The lead price rebounded slightly. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 [28][29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price rebounded due to the rise of coking coal and iron ore prices and then fluctuated. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the steel - mill inventory is low. The iron - water production is expected to bottom out, and the price is expected to run within a range [32][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking - coal inventory structure is deteriorating, and the coke's third - round price cut has been fully implemented. As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve [34][35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They rebounded from the bottom last week due to policy and cost factors. The supply may decrease, and the demand is expected to decline [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price rebounded from a low level, and the offset - paper market sentiment improved. The port pulp inventory is decreasing, and some pulp mills have reduced prices [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price [42][43]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuated, and the fundamentals were stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern, and PTA's production has decreased significantly. The PTA processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, and styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant news [54][56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price showed regional differences. The long - term can be bullish, but focus on the short - to - medium - term fundamentals [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. The soybean supply is expected to be stable, and the rapeseed supply is low. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. Palm oil production is expected to decline, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall market will continue to fluctuate [70]. - **Cotton**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic cotton price rose. The new - season cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic sugar price fell. In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The futures price was stable, and the spot price was mainly stable. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and some farmers are culling hens [74][75]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the spot price was stable. The consumption has slowed down, and wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: The new - jujube harvest is basically completed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term supply - demand is loose [78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the background of the Fed's loose monetary policy, there is still support on the sentiment side. Copper prices may rise further, but the upward resistance has increased due to factors such as higher - than - expected long - term copper concentrate processing fees and weak year - end consumption [3]. - For aluminum, the overall inventory remains at a relatively low level, and with overseas supply disruptions, there is strong support for aluminum prices. However, weak downstream consumption creates pressure, and it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and rise in the short term [5]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots has tightened marginally, and the visible inventory is at a relatively low level. It is expected that lead prices will run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8]. - For zinc, the shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease marginally. Be vigilant against the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metals funds [9]. - For tin, although the current tin market has weak demand and there is an expectation of supply improvement, considering the low downstream inventory, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - For nickel, although the excess pressure of nickel is still large, the market's short - selling sentiment has declined. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the long - position trend of the futures market has not ended. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position, and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and position changes [18]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly, and the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [21]. - For stainless steel, the market lacks factors for a continuous strong rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [25]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price has strong support at the bottom due to cost and supply disruptions, while demand is relatively unstable and delivery pressure creates upper - limit suppression. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The offshore RMB broke through 7. Affected by supply - side disturbance news, copper prices remained strong. The main contract of Shanghai copper closed up to 97,680 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper increased by more than 20,000 tons compared with Monday, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.7 to 59,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong expanded, and the transaction was light. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase [2]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: With the support of the Fed's loose monetary policy sentiment, the copper mine supply remains in a tense pattern, and there is a risk of structural shortage in refined copper supply. However, the long - term benchmark of copper concentrate processing fees is slightly higher than expected, and year - end consumption is weak. The main contract of Shanghai copper is expected to run in the range of 95,500 - 98,800 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum ingot inventory continued to increase, but sentiment remained warm. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.25% to 22,275 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 653,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 77,000 tons. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 24,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory increased by 4,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum bars rebounded, and the trading atmosphere was light. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream consumption remained weak at the end of the year [4]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum inventory has rebounded, overseas aluminum inventory has declined oscillatingly, and the overall inventory remains at a relatively low level. With overseas supply disruptions, there is strong support for aluminum prices, while weak downstream consumption creates pressure. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to run in the range of 22,150 - 22,400 yuan/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.52% to 17,311 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 91,100 lots. LME was closed. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,100 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 100 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 2,500 tons to 17,000 tons [6][7]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the processing fee of lead concentrate has remained flat, and the operating rate of primary lead smelters has increased. The inventory of waste batteries has declined marginally, the operating rate of recycled lead has declined marginally, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has remained basically stable. The supply of domestic lead ingots has tightened marginally, and the visible inventory of lead ingots remains at a relatively low level. It is expected that lead prices will run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.70% to 23,080 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 196,800 lots. LME was closed. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,080 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 80 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was 10 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 5 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 75 yuan/ton. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 41,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 7,700 tons to 111,600 tons [9]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has increased, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. With the increase in the Shanghai - London ratio, it is expected that the shortage of domestic zinc ore will ease marginally. LME zinc ingot inventory has increased, and the LME zinc month - spread has returned to a Contango structure. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to decline, the spot basis has increased, but the month - spread remains low. Be vigilant against the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metals funds [9]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 25, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 335,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of tin ingot smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum. In Yunnan, the smelting cost was restricted by low processing fees, and year - end consumption was weak. In Jiangxi, the supply of recycled raw materials was insufficient. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises remained stable. In November, the output of sample enterprises increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate increased by 0.69% compared with October, supported by orders from emerging fields. However, high tin prices suppressed downstream procurement willingness, and the spot transaction was light this week [10][11]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although the current tin market has weak demand and there is an expectation of supply improvement, considering the low downstream inventory, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is expected to run in the range of 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [12]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, nickel prices fell and adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 1,254,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was reported at 6,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore delivered to the factory was reported at 51.07 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore delivered to the factory was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines CIF was reported at 52.7 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The price of nickel iron increased slightly, and the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 892 yuan/nickel point, with the average price unchanged from the previous day [13]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Currently, the excess pressure of nickel is still large, but due to the Indonesian government's plan to tax cobalt elements, the market's short - selling sentiment has declined. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to run in the range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is expected to run in the range of 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 115,645 yuan, a decrease of 0.11% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 114,700 - 117,500 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 150 yuan (- 0.13%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 112,500 - 114,000 yuan. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 123,520 yuan, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous day's closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 2,150 yuan. The weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons (- 0.6%) from last week, including a decrease of 239 tons in the upstream and 413 tons in the downstream and other links [16]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The Jiuxiaowo lithium mine project is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. On Thursday, some long - positions took the initiative to stop profits in the morning, and the market was boosted by the news that Tianqi Lithium changed the spot pricing method at noon. Although there are occasional disturbances in the off - season concerns, the optimistic demand expectation cannot be falsified, and the long - position trend in the futures market has not ended. The position of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and capital games dominate the market. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position. The LC2605 contract of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to run in the range of 120,600 - 128,000 yuan/ton [17][18]. Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 3 pm on December 25, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.25% to 2,612 yuan/ton during the day, with a total unilateral trading position of 619,700 lots, an increase of 18,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of 16 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB fell 1 US dollar/ton to 308 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 63 yuan. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Thursday were reported at 161,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the Guinea CIF price remained unchanged at 66 US dollars/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained unchanged at 67 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, Guinea's shipments are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production reduction expectation is strengthened. The overall non - ferrous sector is trending strongly, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to run in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% (- 85) on the day, with a unilateral position of 194,500 lots, a decrease of 5,017 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market was reported at 12,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Wuxi market was reported at 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 290 (+ 35), and the Wuxi basis was - 190 (+ 35). The Foshan Hongwang 201 was reported at 8,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was reported at 905 yuan/nickel, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The recycling price of Baoding 304 scrap steel industrial materials was reported at 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was 8,100 yuan/50 - base ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was 48,495 tons, a decrease of 12,106 tons from the previous day. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%, including 631,700 tons of 300 - series inventory, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% [23]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The Indonesian government plans to set the nickel ore production target in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) at about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set in the 2025 RKAB. Although the implementation details are not clear, this news has boosted the Shanghai nickel price and the stainless steel market. However, the actual spot market transaction is still light, and traders are cautious in quoting and mainly wait and see. In the short term, the market lacks factors for a continuous strong rebound, but if the nickel ore supply quota is clearly tightened later, it may still drive prices up quickly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the RMB exchange rate exhibited a "weak first, strong later, and narrowing fluctuations" trajectory, with the offshore RMB successfully breaking the 7 key level by year-end, laying a strong foundation for 2026 [2][3] Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The RMB/USD exchange rate can be divided into three phases: a weak phase from early January to early April, a rapid appreciation phase from early April to early July, and a moderate appreciation phase from July to year-end. The year started with an exchange rate of 7.27, hitting a low of 7.42879 in April, a depreciation of over 2.18% [3] - From April to July, the RMB appreciated over 2.58%, rising from around 7.35 to 7.16 due to clearer Fed rate cuts and improved US-China trade negotiations [3] - By December 24, the offshore RMB surpassed 7.01, resulting in an overall appreciation of over 4% for the year, while the onshore RMB depreciated by 3.83% [3] Exchange Rate Characteristics - In 2025, the RMB showed a "strong against the USD, weak against a basket of currencies" characteristic, with the CFETS RMB index down 4.1% and the RMB depreciating against the euro by 8.5% and the Mexican peso by 10.5% [4] - The market structure improved, with a shift from a deficit of $39.243 billion in January to a surplus of $51.758 billion by September, indicating a positive cycle of expectations, capital inflow, and exchange rate appreciation [4] Core Driving Logic - The RMB's appreciation in 2025 was driven by both external and internal factors, with the Fed's monetary policy shift being the most critical variable. Since September 2025, the Fed has cut rates by 0.75 percentage points, contributing to a structural weakening of the USD [5] - Internally, China's economic resilience, capital inflows, and policy support formed a threefold force, with GDP growth exceeding expectations and a stable trade surplus providing a solid foundation for the RMB [6] Seasonal Factors - Seasonal factors, particularly pre-Spring Festival capital settlement behaviors, significantly contributed to the RMB's year-end appreciation, with December typically seeing the highest levels of bank settlement surplus [7] 2026 Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a "moderate appreciation" trend in 2026, with a predicted range of 6.7 to 7.2 against the USD. Various institutions forecast the year-end exchange rate to be between 6.7 and 7.0 [8][9] - Three potential scenarios for 2026 include a baseline scenario of gradual appreciation, an optimistic scenario with significant appreciation due to strong domestic recovery, and a pessimistic scenario where the RMB faces downward pressure due to economic challenges [9] Impact on Economy and Capital Markets - The anticipated RMB appreciation will lower import costs and improve corporate profitability, particularly benefiting industries reliant on imports [11] - Conversely, export-oriented companies may face profit pressures due to exchange rate fluctuations, necessitating effective risk management strategies [11] - The RMB's appreciation is expected to attract foreign capital, with historical data showing a positive correlation between exchange rate increases and foreign investment inflows [12] Policy Implications - The central bank's approach will balance "stabilizing the exchange rate" and "promoting openness," emphasizing market-driven exchange rate formation while supporting RMB internationalization [14] - The ongoing reforms and policy measures aim to enhance the RMB's global standing and stabilize its exchange rate, creating a favorable environment for high-quality economic development [14]

记者 辛圆 北京时间11:45，离岸人民币对美元报6.9973，较上日收盘价涨103个基点。离岸人民币对美元汇率升破"7"这一整数关口，为2024年10月以来首次。 12月以来，在岸、离岸人民币对美元均升值约1.0%。 展望2026年，分析人士认为，支撑人民币前期升值的核心因素如国内经济基本面、美联储货币政策路径、中国央行政策立场等仍具有较强的生命力。因此， 尽管升值的速度和节奏可能会有变化，但支撑人民币强势的基本逻辑并未改变，人民币在合理均衡水平上的稳健偏强运行态势有望延续。 南华期货宏观外汇分析师周骥对智通财经表示，从内部因素看，首先中国经济的结构性修复是支撑人民币汇率的基础；其次，货物贸易的顺差格局和经常账 户的健康状况，为人民币汇率提供了最坚实的物质基础。 华泰证券表示，从资本流动季节性判断，春节前，出口商通常需要结汇来支付员工奖金，出口结汇比例有望进一步低位回升，推动人民币升值加速。 从外部来看，美联储货币政策路径和美元指数走势，是影响人民币汇率的关键变量。 周骥表示，随着美国通胀受控，美联储预计维持宽松立场，中美利差将逐步收敛。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示，12月以来人民币对美元走强 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The sentiment is still supported under the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The copper ore supply remains in a tight pattern, and there is a risk of structural shortage in refined copper supply due to the expected US copper tariff. However, the benchmark of the long - term copper concentrate processing fee is slightly higher than expected, and the weak consumption at the end of the year increases the upward resistance of copper prices in the short term. It is recommended to view copper prices as a high - level oscillation. The operating range of the main Shanghai copper contract today is expected to be 94,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [2][3]. - The overall aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and there are supply disturbances overseas, so aluminum prices are strongly supported. But the weak downstream consumption exerts pressure, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate in the short term. The operating range of the main Shanghai aluminum contract today is expected to be 22,000 - 22,350 yuan/ton [5][6]. - The apparent inventory of lead ore rises, and the processing fee of lead concentrate remains flat. The operating rate of primary lead smelters increases. The inventory of waste batteries decreases marginally, and the operating rate of secondary lead decreases marginally. The supply of lead ingots in China tightens marginally, and the apparent inventory of lead ingots remains at a relatively low level. The current lead price is at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and it is expected to run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8][9]. - The apparent inventory of zinc concentrate rises, and the TC of zinc concentrate stops falling and stabilizes. With the increase of the Shanghai - London ratio, it is expected that the shortage of zinc ore in China will be marginally alleviated. The LME zinc ingot inventory accumulates, and the LME zinc monthly spread returns to the Contango structure. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China continues to decline, and the spot basis rises, but the monthly spread remains low. Be vigilant about the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metal funds [10][11]. - Although the current tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the bargaining power is limited under the low downstream inventory. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with the change of market risk preference. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [12][13]. - The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but due to the proposed tax on cobalt elements by the Indonesian government, the bearish sentiment in the market has exhausted, and the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of Shanghai nickel prices is expected to be 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [15][16]. - The potential supply pressure in the short - term of lithium carbonate is eliminated, and the bullish sentiment in the market is strong. The long - position trend of the futures market has not ended. The trading of lithium carbonate is dominated by capital games. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position. Pay attention to the changes in fundamentals and seat positions. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 120,600 - 128,000 yuan/ton [19][20]. - After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea gradually recovers, and the AXIS mine resumes production. The ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. But the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production reduction expectation increases. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton [22][23]. - The plan of the Indonesian government to reduce the nickel ore production target in 2026 has pushed up the prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel. But the actual spot market transaction is still relatively light, and there is a lack of driving factors for a continuous strong rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [25][26]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply disturbances. The price has strong support at the bottom, but the demand is relatively volatile and the delivery pressure forms an upper - limit suppression. The price of cast aluminum alloy may maintain a range - bound fluctuation in the short term [28][29]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Copper - **Market Information**: The offshore RMB continued to strengthen. The rise of precious metals and concerns about supply reduction drove up copper prices. LME copper closed up 0.65% at 12,133 US dollars/ton, and the main Shanghai copper contract closed at 95,020 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 1,550 to 157,025 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants declined. In China, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 52,000 tons, and the spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong expanded. The import loss of Shanghai copper spot was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [2]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Affected by the warm atmosphere of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum closed up 0.53% at 2,956 US dollars/ton, and the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 22,145 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted Shanghai aluminum contract increased by 0.9 to 662,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 76,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly, the aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods was lowered. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China was 170 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 521,000 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants declined [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 1.36% at 17,221 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 91,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME lead 3S rose 20 to 1,997.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 178,000 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,975 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 12,400 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts was 15 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 253,100 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 99,800 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 400 tons to 19,100 tons [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.62% at 23,243 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 201,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME zinc 3S rose 39 to 3,125.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 227,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,260 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 90 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was at par, and the Guangdong basis was - 5 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 42,400 tons, and the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 90 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 99,000 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 9,800 tons. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 700 tons to 119,300 tons [10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 24, 2025, the closing price of the main Shanghai tin contract was 341,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rates of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi showed a high - level stability but lacked upward momentum. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan was 86.11%, basically the same as last week, and remained stable throughout the fourth quarter. The tin ore processing fee in this area was still at a historical low, restricting the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises. In Jiangxi, smelting enterprises continued to face a significant shortage of recycled raw materials. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises remained stable. The production of tin solder of sample enterprises in November increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly by 0.69% compared with October, mainly supported by orders from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers. But the high tin price significantly suppressed the downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot trading atmosphere was dull this week [12]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices first rose and then fell. The main Shanghai nickel contract closed at 128,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.79% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The price of nickel ore remained stable, and the price of nickel iron rose slightly [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 115,771 yuan, an increase of 3.55% from the previous working day. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 4,100 yuan (+3.66%), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.95%. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 124,720 yuan, an increase of 3.62% from the previous day's closing price, and the average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 2000 yuan [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 24, 2025, as of 3 pm, the alumina index rose 1.36% to 2618 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position decreased by 32,800 lots to 617,900 lots. The spot price in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,635 yuan/ton, with a premium of 81 yuan/ton over the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained unchanged at 309 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was reported at - 68 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were 161,700 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous day. The CIF price of Guinea decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 66 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price of Australia remained unchanged at 67 US dollars/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,075 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.32% (+170). The unilateral position increased by 12,611 lots to 199,500 lots. In the spot market, the prices of cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi increased. The price of raw materials such as high - nickel iron and 304 scrap steel increased, and the high - carbon ferrochrome price remained unchanged. The futures inventory decreased by 12,106 tons to 48,495 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1.0421 million tons, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. The main AD2602 contract closed up 1.01% at 21,480 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract increased to 28,300 lots, and the trading volume was 12,200 lots. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 70,200 tons. The spread between the AL2602 and AD2602 contracts narrowed. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased, and the price of imported ADC12 increased by 200 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 100 tons to 47,300 tons [28].

Group 1 - The U.S. job market is experiencing a "no firing, no hiring" trend as 2025 approaches, with job stability becoming a major concern for workers [1][3] - According to a Mercer survey, job stability is now the second biggest concern for U.S. workers, following the ability to pay monthly living expenses, reflecting a disconnect between individual perceptions and macroeconomic data [3][4] - The U.S. GDP grew by 4.3% year-on-year in Q3, yet many Americans feel economic pressure due to high inflation and rising living costs, leading to increased anxiety about job security [3][4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in four years, with new job creation concentrated in the healthcare sector [4] - A Michigan University consumer confidence survey indicated that 63% of respondents expect unemployment to rise next year, contributing to a nearly 30% decline in consumer confidence compared to the previous year [5][6] - U.S. household debt reached a record high of $18.6 trillion in Q3 2025, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [7][8] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to only lower interest rates once or twice in 2026, which may not provide significant relief for indebted Americans [7] - The household debt report shows that mortgage balances account for the largest share of debt at $13.07 trillion, while credit card debt stands at $1.23 trillion and auto loans at $1.66 trillion [7][8] - The credit market is exhibiting "K-shaped" economic divergence, where high-income groups benefit from a booming stock market, while low-income families face financial pressures [8]

2025年12月25日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.61%，收于 22330 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-270 元/吨， LME 价格 2965.5 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境偏暖和海外供应扰动为价格提供支撑，但下游开工率维持低位，现货跟涨乏力，预计铝 | | | 价维持震荡整理。 | | | 风险提示：海外供应扰动。 | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.35%，收于 2554 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 78 元/吨。 | | 氧 | 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂运行产能保持稳定。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产。 | | 化 | 交易策略：氧化铝运行产能维持高位，库存持续攀升，叠加铝土矿、煤炭价格持续下行，成本支撑力度有限， | | 铝 | 预计价格维持震荡偏弱。 | | | 风险提示：几内亚矿端扰动，大规模集中减 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the silver market is experiencing a supply shortage for five consecutive years, while industrial demand continues to grow, supporting price levels [2] - Analysts predict that the price of silver could reach $75, although profit-taking at the end of the year may lead to a price correction [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potential leadership changes could impact liquidity and market dynamics, with a key turning point expected around mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - The current trading price of silver is around 16.269 yuan per gram, reflecting a 3.22% increase, with a daily high of 16.418 yuan and a low of 15.755 yuan [1] - The DMI indicator shows a potential risk of a pullback in silver prices, but the overall upward trend remains strong, with support levels at 15.0-15.50 and resistance levels at 16.40-16.80 [3] - The weakening dollar and declining yields are contributing factors to the silver market's performance, affecting its attractiveness to overseas buyers [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan warned that if the U.S. central bank does not continue to lower interest rates next year, it may increase the risk of the economy falling into recession [2] - Milan indicated that recent employment data suggests the unemployment rate "may be higher than previously expected," which could prompt the Fed to continue adjusting its policy towards easing [2] - Since joining the Federal Reserve Board in September, Milan has advocated for larger rate cuts, and his term will end in January [2] Group 2 - The Fed has cumulatively cut rates by 75 basis points since September, and the necessity for a further 50 basis point cut at the next meeting has diminished, although Milan has not made a final judgment [2] - The Fed's recent rate cut of 25 basis points has revealed significant internal divisions regarding future policy paths, with most officials expecting only one more cut next year [2] - Concerns remain among some regional Fed presidents about inflation being nearly one percentage point above the 2% target, while rising unemployment exacerbates worries about a potentially weakening labor market [2]