Group A: Historical Review - The change in the bond yield curve's steepness is different from unilateral changes in bond yields, as it measures the relative changes in yields of bonds with different maturities [2] - Historical periods of flattening in the U.S. Treasury yield curve include April 1988 to 1989, October 1992 to December 1994, August 2003 to June 2006, December 2013 to December 2018, and March 2021 to March 2023, often corresponding with the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycles [2][3] - The flattening of the yield curve typically occurs before the Federal Reserve begins raising rates, while the end of the flattening often coincides with or slightly precedes the end of rate hikes [3] Group B: Yield Curve Dynamics - During rate hike cycles, short-term Treasury yields rise, and when long-term yields also increase, the short-term yields tend to rise more significantly, contributing to the flattening of the yield curve [3][17] - The behavior of long-term yields can vary, sometimes showing volatility or decline, which can lead to a flattening of the curve due to differing influences on short and long-term rates [3][4] - The 2-year Treasury yield closely follows the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, while the 10-year yield reflects broader macroeconomic conditions and inflation expectations [4][17] Group C: Steepening of the Yield Curve - Historical periods of steepening in the U.S. Treasury yield curve include March 1989 to September 1992, May 2000 to August 2003, February 2007 to December 2009, and January 2019 to April 2021, typically aligning with Federal Reserve rate cut cycles [13][15] - The onset of steepening often occurs before the actual rate cuts begin, indicating market anticipation of monetary policy changes [13][15] - In rate cut cycles, both short and long-term yields generally decline, but short-term yields tend to decrease more significantly, contributing to the steepening of the yield curve [13][17] Group D: Economic and Monetary Policy Interactions - The changes in the yield curve are closely linked to monetary policy and economic cycles, with flattening periods usually corresponding to rate hike cycles and steepening periods to rate cut cycles [17] - Short-term yields play a dominant role in shaping the yield curve during these cycles, with their movements significantly influencing the overall curve dynamics [17] - Discrepancies between economic cycles and monetary policy cycles can lead to divergent movements in long-term yields, especially during transitional periods between rate changes [17]

"对他来说，对他的政治遗产来说，这里有一个真正的机会——那就是让他把美联储的非货 币政策职能调整到合适的规模。" 同时，鲍威尔也在一场监管会议上致欢迎辞，但他并没有对经济或货币政策前景发表评论，只称美联储 是一个充满活力的机构，愿意听取新想法以及关于如何改善大型银行资本框架的反馈。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 在特朗普政府官员对美联储主席鲍威尔发动常态化攻击之际，美国财政部长贝森特对他表示了支持，称 他认为美联储主席没有理由辞职。 "没有任何迹象告诉我他现在就应该下台，"贝森特周二在福克斯商业频道谈到这位美联储主席时 说。"他的任期到明年5月结束。如果他想坚持到底，我认为他应该这么做，如果他想提前离开，我认为 也可以。" 几个月来，鲍威尔一直受到特朗普的抨击，原因是他领导下的美联储因担心政府关税上调的通胀影响而 坚持维持利率不变。本月，一些共和党人也因美联储大楼翻新工程耗资巨大而对这位主席提出异议。贝 森特周一呼吁对美联储的非货币活动进行内部审查，包括翻新项目。贝森特说： 对于特朗普关税，贝森特还预测，在特朗普政府设定的8月1日截止日期之前，将会有"大量"贸易协议达 成。 "我认 ...

"特朗普政府方面这种极不专业的表现，体现出其对于美联储的水平以及工作原理并不是很了解，也不够尊重。" 特朗普政府及其盟友对美联储主席鲍威尔持续发难。 当地时间21日，美国财长贝森特表示，作为一个机构，美联储需要接受全面审视，并评估其是否运作成功。言语之中他对美联储在通胀方面的判断多有批 评。 同日，美国佛罗里达州共和党籍联邦众议员安娜·保利娜·卢纳已向美国司法部指认鲍威尔作伪证，要求对他提出刑事指控。 据新华社转引外媒报道，卢纳致信司法部，指认鲍威尔在两个场合作伪证。上述指认正值美国总统特朗普及其盟友持续施压鲍威尔下台。 此前，特朗普还在6月末主动提及美联储下任主席候选人议题，当被问及他是否正在面试接替鲍威尔的候选人时，特朗普表示："我知道在三四个人之内我 会选谁。" 但他表示，目前美国几乎没有出现任何通胀影响，而美联储在特朗普政府对进口商品征收高额关税问题上"制造恐慌"。 他还称，有那么多博士都在那里（美联储），"我不知道他们都在干什么。" 对于这一试图通过"影子美联储主席"影响货币政策的做法，曾经在美联储担任高级经济学家的上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授胡捷在接受第一财经专 访时表示，特朗普政府方面这种极 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown volatility, with recent fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, while the market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Price Movement Analysis - As of July 22, gold is trading around $3,388 per ounce, having experienced a rebound after stabilizing at $3,345, breaking through the key resistance level of $3,376, and reaching a high of $3,400 [1][3]. - The breakout of the $3,376 resistance has turned it into a significant support level, indicating that the bullish trend remains intact despite recent fluctuations [1][3]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has established support at the $3,376 level, with short-term resistance focused in the $3,400 to $3,420 range, where $3,420 aligns with historical high points [4][6]. - The 4-hour chart indicates strong support near the Bollinger Band midline at $3,380, and while the MACD shows signs of a potential pullback, there is no clear bearish signal yet, suggesting that bullish momentum is still building [4]. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy includes entering long positions around $3,380, with protective stops set at $3,374, targeting the previous high of $3,402 [7]. - For aggressive traders, entering long positions at the current price of $3,388 is suggested, with plans to add to positions upon a pullback to $3,380 [7]. - Short positions are advised to be considered only after gold reaches the $3,420 resistance level [8].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have shown strong upward momentum since early April, supported by multiple favorable factors, including trade uncertainties and monetary policy expectations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The upcoming deadline of August 1 for new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on global trade partners has created market uncertainty, providing strong support for silver [2]. - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of U.S.-EU trade negotiations and potential retaliatory measures from the EU, which enhances silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. - The market anticipates a 59% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, further boosting silver prices [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - A weak U.S. dollar has reduced the purchasing cost of silver, attracting buyers [3]. - Ongoing concerns about global economic uncertainty, exacerbated by trade tensions and geopolitical issues, have heightened demand for silver as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Recent global manufacturing data indicates a gradual recovery in industrial activity, positively impacting silver's industrial demand, particularly in Asia's tech manufacturing sector [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Silver's price action has shown a bullish pattern, with significant support levels identified at $38.00 and $37.50, while resistance is noted at $39.00 and $39.13 [4][5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached around 70, indicating strong buying momentum, although it is in the overbought territory [4]. - A breakout above the resistance zone of $38.80-$39.00 could lead to further upward movement towards the July 14 high of $39.13 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The independence of the Federal Reserve is continuously being interfered with, and the prices of gold and silver are showing strength [1] - Even if Powell completes his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually shift to a more accommodative stance, which is a significant positive factor for international silver prices. Gold prices benefit less than silver. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 760 - 800 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.76% to 785.76 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 1.85% to 9420.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.24% to 3414.60 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.07% to 39.31 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.38%, and the US dollar index was 97.87 [1] - For precious metal varieties such as Au(T + D), London gold, Ag(T + D), London silver, etc., there were corresponding price changes and trading volume changes on July 22, 2025, compared with the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Market Outlook - The US Treasury Secretary intervened in the Fed's monetary policy, and a US House of Representatives member filed a criminal complaint against Powell. Trump is selecting a new Fed Chairman, and the main candidates have dovish views on monetary policy, which is beneficial to international silver prices [1][2] 3.3 Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold, in different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, and AuT + D, there were changes in closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and other data from July 18 to July 21, 2025, with varying degrees of increase or decrease [4] - For silver, in different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, and AgT + D, there were also corresponding changes in closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and other data during the same period, with different trends [4] 3.4 Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors, as well as the relationship between precious metals and other market indicators such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc., and the near - far month structure of precious metals [6][9][14][19][20][25][28][37][38][44][46][49][50][55]

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq Composite Index has reached a historic milestone by surpassing 21,000 points, driven by strong earnings reports from major tech companies and optimistic market sentiment regarding future growth [2][4]. Financial Performance - Over 85% of the 62 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have exceeded expectations, indicating robust performance in the current earnings season [3][15]. - The "Big Seven" tech companies are expected to see a 14% year-over-year increase in earnings, while the remaining 493 S&P 500 companies are projected to have an average growth of only 3.4% [16]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the S&P 500 index could rise to 6,900 points in the next 12 months, supported by strong earnings and investor optimism about growth in 2026 [3][17]. Market Trends - Major tech stocks, including Google, Apple, and Meta, have shown significant gains, contributing to the overall strength of the market [7]. - The financial technology company Block's stock surged over 7% after being announced as a new addition to the S&P 500 index [8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that if inflation data is low, the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates, which could positively impact the mortgage market [9]. - A weaker dollar has been identified as a favorable factor for the earnings growth of U.S. companies, with a 10% decline in the dollar potentially leading to a 2-3% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share [20]. Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns regarding trade policies, investors appear to be focusing on the long-term growth prospects for 2026 rather than short-term economic challenges [19][23]. - There is a general expectation among investors that the final tariff rates proposed by the Trump administration may be lower than currently suggested, which could further support market confidence [24].

Group 1 - The recent rebound of the US dollar is influenced by two key factors: Trump's tariff threats and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance [1][2] - Trump's renewed threats of tariffs have been a direct catalyst for the dollar's recent rise, with market attention focused on the August 1 deadline for potential tariff implementation [1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish comments have limited the potential gains of the dollar, suggesting that without such interventions, the dollar could have surged significantly [1][2] Group 2 - Despite facing resistance from the Federal Reserve, the dollar has found a stronger footing during the recent short squeeze, with technical analysis indicating support for the euro/dollar pair [2] - The current sentiment around the dollar is not entirely stable, as any further dovish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers could lead to a reversal in market sentiment [2] - The future trajectory of the dollar will depend on the complex interplay between Trump's tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its key interest rates at 2%, 2.15%, and 2.4% during the upcoming July meeting, contrary to the trend of continuous easing over the past year [2] - Since June 2024, the ECB has cut rates eight times, totaling a reduction of 210 basis points, which is significantly higher than the rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England during the same period [2] - ECB officials have recently indicated a strong likelihood of pausing further rate cuts, with statements from various members suggesting that the threshold for additional cuts is very high [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver welcoming remarks at a meeting focused on a comprehensive review of the capital framework for large banks, discussing topics such as Basel agreements and stress tests [4] - Market participants are particularly interested in Powell's comments regarding potential interest rate cuts and inflation outlook, as these could significantly impact the U.S. dollar index and precious metals [4] - The S&P Global will release preliminary PMI data for the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors, with manufacturing PMI expected to decrease slightly while services PMI is anticipated to increase marginally [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the uncertainty of Powell's tenure, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually shift to a dovish stance, which is a significant positive factor for international silver prices. Gold prices will also benefit, but to a lesser extent than silver. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the precious metals market. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - **Domestic Market**: Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.36% to 778.10 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.33% to 9216.00 yuan/kilogram. Au(T + D) rose 0.32% to 773.37 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) rose 0.96% to 9211.00 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. - **International Market**: COMEX gold fell 0.08% to 3355.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.15% to 38.41 dollars/ounce. London gold rose 1.10% to 3355.10 dollars/ounce, and London silver rose 1.36% to 38.27 dollars/ounce [2][4]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, and the US dollar index was 98.42. The Dow Jones Index fell 0.32%, the S&P 500 fell 0.01%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 0.05% [2][4]. Market Outlook - **Powell's Situation**: Trump inquired about firing Powell, which caused a short - term increase in gold and silver prices. Although Trump later said there was no plan to fire Powell, he was considering candidates for the next Fed chair, and the candidates' views on monetary policy are dovish [2][3]. - **Impact on Precious Metals**: A dovish Fed monetary policy is beneficial for international silver prices, and gold prices will also be positively affected, but silver is expected to perform stronger. It is advisable to maintain a long - position strategy [3]. Data Tables and Charts - **Key Data of Gold and Silver**: On July 18, 2025, COMEX gold's closing price rose 0.30%, while its trading volume decreased by 28.86%. COMEX silver's closing price fell 0.03%, and its position increased by 5.33% [7]. - **Price and Volume Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and historical price trends [9][11][13][17][28][29]. - **Near - and Far - Month Structures**: The near - and far - month structures of COMEX gold, London gold, Shanghai Gold, COMEX silver, London silver, and Shanghai Silver are presented, along with the price differences between different contracts [19][21][31][39]. - **Net Long Positions of Management Funds**: The relationships between the net long positions of management funds in COMEX gold and silver and their prices are shown [41][47]. - **ETF Positions**: The total positions of gold and silver ETFs are presented [48]. - **Internal - External Price Differences**: The internal - external price differences of gold and silver on July 18, 2025, are calculated, including the price differences between SHFE and COMEX, and SGE and LBMA [50]. - **Moving Averages and Seasonal Charts**: The 5 - day moving averages and seasonal charts of the internal - external price differences of gold and silver are provided [51][53].