Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework, stating that zero interest rates are no longer a baseline scenario and that there is a need to reconsider the language around labor market slack and average inflation rates, with April PCE expected to drop to 2.2% [1] - Fed official Barr warned that while the U.S. economic fundamentals are solid, supply chain disruptions related to tariffs could lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation [1] - Barclays revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth from -0.3% to 0.5%, no longer expecting a recession in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Global Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea in 2025 from 0.7% to 1.1% and for Vietnam from 5.3% to 5.5% [3] - The Bank of Mexico cut its interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.50%, with an expected average core inflation rate of 3.4% for the fourth quarter, up from a previous forecast of 3.3% [3] Group 3: Currency and Trade Developments - Reports suggest that the U.S. is considering unilaterally modifying its trade agreement with Japan during tariff negotiations [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1,065 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels [4] - Japan's first-quarter GDP fell short of expectations, leading markets to anticipate a delay in interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] - European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks stated there is no need to rush into rate cuts, indicating that market expectations for the next meeting are appropriate [4] - Barclays adjusted its Eurozone economic growth forecast from -0.2% to 0%, while cautioning that uncertainty risks remain [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and the need to monitor US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the expected improvement in concentrate supply and potential recovery of smelting supply, the previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation, and factors like US tariff negotiations and exchange rates need to be watched [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Although the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, the better - than - expected result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation has a positive impact [1]. - Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term, as there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continuous growth in household appliance production, and potential for increased copper demand in the automotive sector due to higher new - energy penetration. The narrowing decline in real - estate data is also a factor. Short - term copper price fluctuations are affected by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price data is unavailable. The domestic basis is 380 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 9,577 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 39.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 184,650 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 925 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Short - term zinc price fluctuations are influenced by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 195 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,725 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 22.38 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 165,175 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,875 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.07%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation result is better than expected, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose, but some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. Further decline in futures prices requires a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers. The operating rate of most aluminum - processing sectors has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of reduced downstream orders. However, due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation result, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 60 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,489 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 0.39 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 397,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,025 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.16%. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices and cost transfer to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw - material inventory and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel - salt enterprises have a production - reduction expectation, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel - salt prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. In the short term, nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 2,160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 15,799 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 191.87 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 199,146 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 714 tons [2]. Lead - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 4.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 250,675 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 400 tons [2]. Tin - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 750 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 32,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 127.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 2,745 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 30 tons [2].

据越南官方媒体：美国称对越南的贸易逆差"不可持续"，这是关税谈判中的主要担忧。 ...

智通财经5月16日电，据越南官方媒体报道，美国称对越南的贸易逆差"不可持续"，这是关税谈判中的 主要担忧。 ...

5月16日，#金价一跌再跌网友直呼亏麻了#进入热搜，截至智通财经发稿，该词条有6054.1万点击，引 起网友的广泛关注。 5月15日盘中，金价一度大幅跳水，现货黄金最低下探至3120美元/盎司，日内跌幅一度接近1.8%； COMEX黄金期货一度跌超2%，最低触及3123美元/盎司。随后金价出现反弹。 据羊城晚报5月14日报道，有人分享了自己的贷款80万元买黄金的经历。据其表述，其成本价高达830 元，现在感到非常心慌。记者据网友所述算了一笔账，从持仓价格的830元到现在的758元左右的价格， 不算贷款利息、回收差价等，每克就已经跌掉了72元，80万元投资的损失在7万元左右。 近期，建设银行、兴业银行、广发银行等多家银行发布了信用卡"炒金"风险提示，强调严控信用卡"炒 金"，明确指出信用卡资金不得用于投资股市、黄金等高风险领域。 黄金价格剧烈波动，花旗率先下调了黄金未来展望。5月12日，花旗发布报告，将未来三个月黄金目标 价从每盎司3500美元大幅下调至3150美元，降幅高达10%。 花旗的分析师在最新研究报告中明确指出，此轮金价下调的核心原因在于全球关税谈判取得突破性进 展。报告强调："此前推动金价上涨的关键 ...

智通财经5月16日电，泰国商务部长Pichai Naripthaphan表示，美国将确定与泰国就其拟对泰国出口产品 征收36%关税展开谈判的日期。他本周与美国贸易代表格里尔举行了会晤。 泰国商务部长称正在等待美国确定关税谈判日期 ...

德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔当地时间5月15日在德国联邦议院发表演讲时表示，德国将和欧盟国家 一起展开对美国的关税谈判。如果欧美之间的关税谈判失败，德国也将和欧盟一起采取对美国的应对措 施。尽管近期欧盟和美国方面已经就关税问题展开了多次谈判，但是目前仍未能达成协议。克林拜尔表 示，德国作为欧盟最大的出口国，与美国保持良好的关系尤为重要。但是在对美国贸易和关税谈判的问 题上，德国坚持平等谈判，不能不惜一切代价达成协议。德国经济部长当天也表示，贸易冲突是有害 的，它会阻碍商品交换，抑制经济增长，最终不会有赢家，希望欧盟和美国的关税谈判能够找到一个合 理的解决方案。(央视新闻) ...

Group 1: Trade Relations - India has proposed a "zero tariff" trade agreement to the United States, indicating a willingness to eliminate tariffs on American goods [1][2] - Prior to this proposal, India threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on certain American products in response to the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on Indian steel and aluminum [3] - The U.S. tariffs have affected approximately $7.6 billion worth of Indian exports to the U.S., prompting India to seek bilateral consultations with the U.S. [3] Group 2: Apple Inc. and Production Plans - President Trump has urged Apple CEO Tim Cook to halt plans for expanding production in India and instead increase manufacturing in the U.S. [4] - Apple had intended to import a majority of its iPhones sold in the U.S. from India by the end of next year, but Trump's comments have disrupted these plans [5] - Currently, about 10%-15% of iPhones are assembled in India, with projections suggesting this could rise to 15%-20% by the end of 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new signals released during the policy window period in late April, emphasizing the need for flexible and timely incremental policies in response to external uncertainties, particularly regarding tariff negotiations and economic stability [2][11][70]. Group 1: New Signals from the Policy Window - The April Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing employment, economy, market, and expectations, while maintaining vigilance against external risks, marking the first use of the term "international economic and trade struggle" [3][11][70]. - The meeting emphasized the need for a flexible and unconventional policy toolbox, advocating for timely incremental reserve policies based on changing circumstances [3][11][70]. - Subsequent press conferences focused on stabilizing employment and the market, detailing policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and supporting the private economy [4][12][13]. Group 2: Incremental Policy Adjustments - The current 90-day tariff "grace period" serves as a crucial window for implementing existing policies and strengthening incremental policy reserves, with strong export performance driven by "export grabbing" [5][16][70]. - Financial policies have been introduced, including comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts and structural monetary policy tool interest rate reductions, aimed at lowering borrowing costs for banks [18][19][70]. - The government is closely monitoring the issuance and utilization of debt limits for existing policies while focusing on the potential for incremental policy "continuity" [21][28][70]. Group 3: Potential Focus Areas for Incremental Funding - If tariff negotiations progress smoothly, future policy focus may shift towards long-term institutional reforms and structural policy support [46][79][70]. - Consumer spending needs to be supported through mechanisms that reduce burdens and increase income, with a particular emphasis on improving income distribution and social security systems [46][79][70]. - Investment in new infrastructure, particularly in emerging industries like AI, is expected to become a new growth point, alongside traditional infrastructure projects [57][80][70].

据日本读卖新闻：日本首席谈判代表赤泽亮正下周将访美进行关税谈判。 ...