Core Viewpoint - Japan's consumer price index (excluding fresh food) rose by 3.5% year-on-year in April, with rice prices surging by 98.4%, marking the highest increase since 1971, prompting speculation about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][3]. Economic Data - The consumer price index (CPI) for April was reported at 110.9, up from 3.2% in March to 3.5% [3]. - Rice prices have increased significantly, with a 10 kg bag rising from 2000 yen to over 4000 yen, averaging 4268 yen (approximately 214 RMB) as of May 11 [1][3]. Government Response - The Japanese government initially took a wait-and-see approach to rising rice prices but began releasing reserve rice in March, which has not effectively curbed price increases [3]. - Former Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Takumi Eto, resigned amid criticism over his handling of the rice price crisis [4][5]. International Relations - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba discussed U.S. tariff measures with President Trump, agreeing to meet during the G7 summit in June [1][7]. - Japan is considering increasing rice imports from the U.S. as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations, facing opposition from domestic farmers [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices fluctuated this week, with all but the Small - and - Medium 100 recording slight declines. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small - and - medium - cap stocks. The release of weaker domestic economic data in April put pressure on the market, and although the LPR cut briefly restored market sentiment, the lack of further catalysts led to a market correction. Market trading activity decreased slightly compared to last week. For stocks, the configuration suggestion is to be cautious and wait and see [6]. - In the bond market, the long - term bond bull market may still be expected, but in the short term, due to the phased results of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cut benefits, the market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased significantly, and the bond market fluctuated weakly. The configuration suggestion is also to be cautious and wait and see [6]. - The commodity market may experience a correction after the release of the positive effects brought by the repair of trade relations. The configuration suggestion is to short at high prices [6]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the rise in fiscal pressure and the damage to the credit of US dollar assets. The euro fluctuated due to factors such as the pressure of tariff negotiations and the expectation of interest rate cuts. The yen showed a slightly stronger and fluctuating pattern. The configuration suggestion for foreign exchange is to be cautious and wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Configuration Suggestions Stocks - Performance: A - share major indices fluctuated, with all but the Small - and - Medium 100 recording slight declines. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small - and - medium - cap stocks. The market was pressured by weaker economic data in April, briefly recovered with the LPR cut, and then corrected due to the lack of catalysts. Market trading activity decreased slightly [6]. - Configuration Suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see [6]. Bonds - Performance: In the long - term, the bond bull market may still be expected, but in the short term, the bond market fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the phased results of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cut benefits [6]. - Configuration Suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see [6]. Commodities - Performance: After the release of the positive effects brought by the repair of trade relations, the commodity market may experience a correction [6]. - Configuration Suggestion: Short at high prices [6]. Foreign Exchange - Performance: The US dollar index fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the rise in fiscal pressure and the damage to the credit of US dollar assets. The euro fluctuated due to factors such as the pressure of tariff negotiations and the expectation of interest rate cuts. The yen showed a slightly stronger and fluctuating pattern [6]. - Configuration Suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **China - related**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's tightening restrictions on Chinese chips, emphasizing that the US measures are discriminatory and that relevant parties may be held legally responsible. China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version, adding 9 new chapters. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy. The "15th Five - Year Plan" compilation work launched an online opinion - solicitation activity [15]. - **International**: Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating to AA1. Trump will set new tariff rates for trading partners in the next two to three weeks. Fed officials hinted that it may be difficult to cut interest rates before September. ECB officials said that a June interest rate cut cannot be ruled out [17]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In April, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.1% (expected 5.5%, previous value 5.9%); the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 6.1% (expected 5.5%, previous value 7.7%); the year - to - date year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment was 4% (expected 4.2%, previous value 4.2%); the one - year LPR as of May 20 was 3% (expected 3%, previous value 3.1%) [18]. - **US**: As of the week ending May 17, the number of initial jobless claims was 227,000 (expected 230,000, previous value 229,000); the preliminary value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.1, previous value 50.2) [18]. - **EU**: The final value of the CPI annual rate in April was 2.2% (expected 2.2%, previous value 2.2%); the preliminary value of the consumer confidence index in May was - 15.2 (expected - 16, previous value - 16.7); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49) [18]. - **UK**: The annual rate of the core retail price index in April was 4.2% (previous value 2.8); the annual rate of the retail price index in April was 4.5% (expected 4.2, previous value 3.2); the annual rate of the core CPI in April was 3.8% (expected 3.6, previous value 3.4); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI in May was 45.1 (expected 46, previous value 45.4) [18]. - **Germany**: The monthly rate of PPI in April was - 0.6% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.7); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.8 (expected 48.9, previous value 48.4) [18]. - **France**: The preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5 (expected 48.9, previous value 48.7) [18]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - May 27: At 14:45, the final value of France's May CPI monthly rate (previous value 0.6); at 21:00, the annual rate of the unadjusted house price index of 20 major cities in the US in March (previous value 4.5) [88]. - May 28: At 14:45, the final value of France's Q1 GDP annual rate; at 15:55, Germany's seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate in May (previous value 6.3) [88]. - May 29: At 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 24; the revised value of the annualized quarterly rate of the US Q1 real GDP [88]. - May 30: At 07:30, Japan's April unemployment rate (previous value 2.5); at 20:00, the preliminary value of Germany's May CPI monthly rate (previous value 0.4); at 20:30, the annual rate of the US April core PCE price index (previous value 2.6); at 21:45, the US May Chicago PMI (previous value 44.6); at 22:00, the final value of the US May University of Michigan consumer confidence index (previous value 52.2) [88].

日本首相石破茂与美国总统特朗普（REUTERS） 双方进行了45分钟的电话磋商。将根据关税谈判的进展，协调石破的访美计划…… 日本首相石破茂5月23日与美国总统特朗普进行了45分钟的电话磋商。双方就美国关税措施 的应对以及经济安全保障领域的合作交换了意见，还确认将在6月于加拿大召开的七国集团首 脑会议（G7峰会）期间，举行日美首脑会谈。将根据关税谈判的进展，协调石破的访美计 划。 电话磋商结束后，石破在日本首相官邸向记者团透露，此次通话是应美方提议进行的。石破 就预定于5月23日在华盛顿举行的日美部长级关税磋商称："已向对方表示希望进行建设性的 磋商，特朗普总统也表示同意"。 G7峰会将于6月15日~17日在加拿大西部的卡纳纳斯基斯（Kananaskis）举行。石破在电话 中表示："期待进行面对面会谈"。据称，特朗普也表达了同样的意向。 日美已确认将在关税谈判中以最终达成首脑间协议为目标。将根据部长级磋商的进展，探讨 石破在峰会前后访美的可能性。 日本正在商讨通过扩大投资以及创造就业岗位等能对美国经济做出贡献的方案。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 htt ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a pullback on Friday, with all three major indices turning negative, and the ChiNext index dropping over 1% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also reversed its earlier gains, which had exceeded 1% [1] - A50 futures index saw a sharp decline, reporting a drop of 0.75% [3] Group 2 - Government bond futures turned upward across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.06%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.06%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.04% [5] - Gold prices surged, with New York gold futures rising by over 1%, while A-share gold stocks rallied, with Western Gold hitting the limit up, and other stocks like Xiaocheng Technology, Mankalon, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold also seeing gains [5] Group 3 - U.S. President Trump urged the EU to reduce tariffs, warning of more tariffs if they do not comply [7] - Japanese Prime Minister discussed U.S. tariff measures with Trump, maintaining a stance on the removal of tariffs, and also addressed diplomatic and security issues [7] Group 4 - A significant policy briefing is scheduled for next Tuesday, where officials will discuss reforms and innovations in national-level economic and technological development zones [8]

Group 1 - The core discussion between US President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida involved tariffs, with no specific comments made by Trump during their 45-minute call [1] - Kishida reiterated Japan's consistent stance on tariff elimination, indicating that Japan is still under Trump's attention despite lagging in trade agreement negotiations [1] - The leaders expressed their anticipation to meet at the G7 summit in June in Canada [1] Group 2 - Kishida's chief trade negotiator, Akizawa Ryozo, is set to meet with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to be absent [2] - The likelihood of reaching an agreement in the latest round of negotiations appears low, as the Trump administration has imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles, steel, and aluminum, with a potential increase to 24% in July unless an agreement is reached [3] - The automotive sector, which constitutes about one-third of Japan's total exports to the US, is a critical driver of Japan's economic growth, employing approximately 8% of the workforce [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent weakness in the 20 - year US Treasury auction and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's have led to a decline in the 10 - year US Treasury and the US dollar index. Geopolitical issues in the Middle East and concerns about stagflation from tariffs have provided upward momentum for precious metals [2][4]. - For copper, due to factors such as high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns, the copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation [7][10]. - In the case of alumina, the suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea may narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and the price of alumina is expected to be strong in the short term [14][19][20]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, with ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, along with factors like declining LME inventories and increasing imports, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate [23][26]. - For zinc, as some smelters resume production and downstream demand remains weak, the zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range [28][29]. - In the lead market, the current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement [31][34]. - For nickel, although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, suppressing the upside of the nickel price [36][39][40]. - Stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with short - term support from production cuts and costs, but lacking upward demand drivers [41][42]. - For industrial silicon, with increasing supply and high inventory, the price is under pressure, and short - term short positions are recommended [45][46]. - In the polysilicon market, with production and demand adjustments and ongoing contract delivery contradictions, short - term short positions are still recommended [48][51][52]. - For lithium carbonate, due to weak downstream demand expectations and high inventories, short positions are advisable [54][57]. - In the tin market, with the phased resumption of African tin mines and limited demand improvement, the tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term [59][61]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.76% to $3314.36 per ounce, and London silver rose 0.95% to $33.38 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.92% to 777.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.86% to 8285 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.56% to 99.60, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.587%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.19% to 7.203 [2]. Important资讯 - The US Commerce Secretary hopes to reach trade agreements with major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the market expects two interest rate cuts this year. There are geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the 20 - year US Treasury auction had weak demand [2]. Logic Analysis - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and weak 20 - year US Treasury auctions have led to a decline in the US Treasury and the US dollar index. Fed officials' concerns about tariffs and geopolitical issues in the Middle East have provided upward momentum for precious metals [4]. Trading Strategy - Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. Copper Market Review - The LME copper price fell 0.28% to $9487. LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168,800 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1401 short tons to 173,023 short tons [7]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a winning yield of 5.047%. Peru plans to set up a "mining fund" for small - scale miners. Vicuna expects two copper projects in Argentina to start production in 2030. China's imports of anode copper and electrolytic copper had different trends in April [7][8]. Logic Analysis - US trade negotiations, high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns affect the copper market. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the market may show a back structure in the medium term. Demand remains resilient during the 90 - day tariff suspension [10]. Trading Strategy - The copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures price of alumina 2509 contract rose 1.85% to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in various regions increased [12]. Important资讯 - Bauxite mining in the Guinea AXIS矿区 has been suspended, with an annual capacity of about 40 million tons. The transition authorities in Guinea have designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserves. There was a spot alumina transaction in Guangxi on May 21 [14][15][16]. Logic Analysis - The suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea is likely to narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite. The price of bauxite is expected to rise to $75 - 80. The impact on alumina is more medium - term, and short - term supply and demand may change if alumina production capacities resume [19]. Trading Strategy - The alumina price is expected to be strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract fell 30 yuan per ton to 20,185 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. Important资讯 - EU - US trade negotiations are ongoing. The US 20 - year Treasury auction had an impact on the market. Global primary aluminum production in April was 6.033 million tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot imports reached a record high in April [23][25]. Logic Analysis - With ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, the LME aluminum inventory is decreasing, and aluminum imports are increasing. The aluminum consumption shows an upward trend, and the inventory is at a low level, which may support the price spread [26]. Trading Strategy - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; consider long positions in the 06 - 09 contract spread for arbitrage; wait and see for options [26]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc price fell 1.47% to $2684.5 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan per ton. The spot market had weak downstream demand and a slight decline in the spot premium [28]. Important资讯 - The LME has approved three additional warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The tender price of a zinc mine in North China increased [28][29]. Logic Analysis - As some smelters resume production, supply may increase, while downstream demand remains weak. The zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range, and may decline with inventory accumulation [29]. Trading Strategy - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within a range, and short positions can be lightly tried at high prices for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead price fell 0.28% to $1978.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2507 contract fell 0.33% to 16,835 yuan per ton. The spot market had regional transactions, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs [31]. Important资讯 - China's lead concentrate imports in April decreased 4.3% month - on - month but increased 22.1% year - on - year. Some secondary lead smelters plan to resume production [32][34]. Logic Analysis - The current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement. Short - term macro factors should be monitored [34]. Trading Strategy - No specific trading strategy details provided in the text. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose $100 to $15,630 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201,786 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 400 yuan to 123,760 yuan per ton. Spot premiums had different changes [36]. Important资讯 - Nickel Industries' production and sales data in the first quarter of 2025 are reported. Hong Kong has more LME - approved warehouses. In March 2025, there was a supply surplus of 39,400 tons of refined nickel globally [36][39]. Logic Analysis - Although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, and the improvement in the nickel ore shortage situation will suppress the upside of the nickel price [40]. Trading Strategy - The nickel price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel 2507 fell 5 yuan to 12,870 yuan per ton. Spot prices for cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are reported [42]. Important资讯 - China's stainless steel exports decreased 5% in April, and imports increased 10% [42]. Logic Analysis - There may be a supply shortage of 304 stainless steel, but demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is difficult to digest. The price is expected to oscillate widely, following the nickel price and macro - sentiment [42]. Trading Strategy - The stainless steel price is expected to be slightly strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon main contract fell 1.75% to 7865 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and downstream demand was weak [45]. Important资讯 - The US has launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal [45]. Logic Analysis - With increasing supply and high inventory, the price of industrial silicon is under pressure. Although there is some speculative buying demand below 8000 yuan, the actual supply - demand situation has not improved [46]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading; sell out - of - the - money call options; conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 contracts [46]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon main contract rose 0.93% to 35,860 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [48]. Important资讯 - China's electricity consumption data in April are reported [49]. Logic Analysis - Production and demand of polysilicon and silicon wafers are adjusted in May, and there is an inventory reduction. The spot price is weak, and there is a contradiction between the downward fundamentals and contract delivery. Short - term fluctuations are intense [51]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the PS2507 contract for single - side trading; sell PS2507 - C - 40000 options; wait and see for arbitrage [52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract 2507 rose 240 yuan to 61,100 yuan per ton. SMM - reported spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [54]. Important资讯 - A lithium - salt project in Yiliping has improved lithium recovery, and a lithium - salt enterprise in Jiangxi plans to conduct maintenance [55][57]. Logic Analysis - Downstream demand expectations are weak, and inventories are high. Short positions are advisable until there is a clear signal of overseas mine production cuts [57]. Trading Strategy - Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; hold put ratio options [57]. Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.36% to 266,150 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees were stable. The market had limited actual transactions [59]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a high winning yield [59]. Logic Analysis - The high winning yield of the 20 - year US Treasury bonds has increased risk - aversion sentiment. African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tightness is expected to ease. The tin price is mainly driven by macro factors [61]. Trading Strategy - The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for options [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at high levels. The market may show a long - term back structure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the progress of bauxite suspension in Guinea, bauxite price expectations, and domestic alumina capacity changes. For now, arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [14][15][16]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [21][24]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [27][28]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on lead prices. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [34][35]. - Nickel prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [38][40][43]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [47][48][49]. - Tin prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [53][54][55]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline. Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [59][60]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to be bearish. Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [63][65]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [68][69][70]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 77,920 yuan, down 0.22%. The Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 6,043 lots to 525,000 lots. Spot premiums in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Alumina**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 32 yuan/ton to 3,216 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. Positions increased by 19,583 lots to 511,400 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 20,270 yuan/ton. Positions increased by 3,682 lots to 520,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 1,119 lots to 227,500 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai showed a slight improvement in trading [26]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract fell 1.21% to 16,685 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Lead index increased its position by 7,829 lots to 73,000 lots. Spot prices decreased [30]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 rose 40 to 123,400 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 687 lots. Spot premiums remained unchanged [37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [45]. - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 264,780 yuan/ton, down 2,320 yuan/ton or 0.87%. Positions decreased by 4,639 lots to 54,185 lots. Spot prices decreased [52]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly and strengthened slightly, closing at 7,880 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Spot prices generally decreased [56]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. Spot prices remained stable [61]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [66]. 3.2 Important Information - **Copper**: Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter has resumed operation ahead of schedule and is expected to reach full - capacity production in December. As of May 22, copper inventories in mainstream regions in China increased slightly week - on - week, and it is expected that supply and demand will be weak next week [3]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea Axis mining area has been shut down, and the recovery time is unknown. The Guinea transitional authorities have designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas. Alumina production increased week - on - week, and inventories decreased [10][12]. - **Aluminum**: EU - US trade negotiations are still uncertain. Global primary aluminum production in April 2025 was 6.033 million tons. China's primary aluminum production in April was estimated to be 3.621 million tons. Aluminum inventories decreased, and imports reached a record high [19][20]. - **Zinc**: As of May 22, zinc inventories in seven major regions in China decreased week - on - week [27]. - **Lead**: Due to continuous losses in the secondary lead smelting enterprises, waste battery purchase prices in many regions have been significantly reduced. As of May 22, lead inventories in five major regions decreased [31][33]. - **Nickel**: In March 2025, the global refined nickel production was 317,300 tons, with a supply surplus of 39,400 tons. From January to March, the supply surplus was 123,000 tons [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's stainless steel exports decreased by 5% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10% month - on - month. As of May 22, stainless steel inventories increased slightly [46]. - **Tin**: In April, the production of integrated circuits, electronic computers, and washing machines showed different trends. African tin mines are gradually resuming production [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The US has launched anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal from multiple countries [57][58]. - **Polysilicon**: In April, China's total social electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kWh, up 4.7% year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Copper**: The US is negotiating tariffs, and the negotiation of copper concentrate processing fees is approaching. The spread between Comex and LME is driving the flow of electrolytic copper. Although there is short - term pressure on spreads after delivery, the inventory is still far below the safety level, and demand remains resilient [4]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea policy may reduce the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and bauxite prices are expected to rise. Alumina production increased, but inventories decreased. Attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment is stable. LME aluminum inventories are decreasing, aluminum imports are increasing, and consumption is growing. Aluminum inventories are at a low level, which may support the price difference [21]. - **Zinc**: The market is in a state of supply and demand balance, and inventories are decreasing [27]. - **Lead**: Secondary lead smelters are still in a loss state, which supports lead prices, but the off - season demand restricts the upward space of prices [34]. - **Nickel**: In the first quarter, there was a surplus of refined nickel. Although nickel ore prices support nickel prices, the supply is expected to increase after May, and demand will enter the off - season [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [47]. - **Tin**: African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tension is expected to ease. The demand side has not improved significantly, and prices are mainly driven by the macro - environment [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. Inventories are high, which suppresses prices [59]. - **Polysilicon**: In May, polysilicon production and silicon wafer production decreased, and inventories are expected to decrease. The spot price is weak, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [63][65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [68]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Copper**: Wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [24]. - **Zinc**: Fluctuate within a range. Try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [28]. - **Lead**: Fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [35]. - **Nickel**: Weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [41][42][43]. - **Stainless Steel**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48][49]. - **Tin**: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [54][55]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [60]. - **Polysilicon**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [69][70].

Report Overview - The report is a special report on the May Day holiday in 2025, analyzing the price changes of various sectors in the external market during the holiday, important news, and providing post - holiday trading suggestions [2] 1. 2025 May Day Holiday External Market Price Changes Exchange and Precious Metals - The US dollar index rose 0.58% from 99.22 to 99.8; the US silver continuous contract fell 1.27% from 33.04 to 32.62; the US gold continuous contract dropped 1.33% from 3315.2 to 3271 [2] Stock Indexes - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased 4.03% from 6894.72 to 7172.4; the German DAX rose 2.95%, the Hang Seng main contract climbed 2.69%, the French CAC40 went up 2.68%, the S&P 500 increased 1.46%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.13%, and the Nikkei 225 increased 1.04% [2] Commodities - Some commodities like US cotton continuous contract rose 3.31%, while others such as Brent crude oil continuous contract fell 4.55% and WTI crude oil continuous contract dropped 5.04% [2] 2. 2025 May Day Holiday Important News Stock Index Sector - Global major stock indexes performed well during the holiday. The rise was related to tariff negotiation progress and Fed policy expectations. The US proposed to lower tariffs, and the Fed's potential rate - cut in the future could ease global liquidity pressure [3] Energy Sector - OPEC+ announced an accelerated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day from June, which may complete the 2.2 million barrels per day total increase target nearly one year ahead. This led to concerns about supply pressure and a decline in oil prices [4] Precious Metals Sector - Gold prices fluctuated due to tariff negotiation progress. Even if tariffs improve, central banks' gold - buying trend may continue. Silver was under pressure due to unclear macro - economic situations and high - level gold price fluctuations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Strong US non - farm payroll data cooled rate - cut expectations, and low manufacturing PMI restricted the rebound space of non - ferrous metals [6][7] Black Metals Sector - For steel, production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and apparent demand rose during the holiday, but the sustainability is uncertain. For iron ore, it faced a situation of high supply, weak demand, and policy suppression [8] Agricultural Products Sector - Vegetable oils in the external market fell significantly due to the decline in international oil prices. Different agricultural products had different trends, such as soybeans and soybean meal having narrow - range fluctuations [9][10] 3. Post - holiday Trading Suggestions Energy and Chemicals - The crude oil market is expected to be weak after the holiday, which may drive down the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Styrene is expected to continue its weak trend [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - Non - ferrous metals may fluctuate after the holiday. Shanghai copper may have a relatively strong oscillation [13] Black Metals - Steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, and its upward space is restricted in the long term. Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][13] Agricultural Products - Domestic vegetable oil varieties are likely to follow the external market's decline. Dalian soybeans and soybean meal may continue the weak - oscillation trend, and corn futures may continue the pre - holiday strong - oscillation trend [14]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the market is positive as billion-level private equity firms increase their positions, indicating confidence in the current market environment [1] - As of May 16, the overall stock private equity position index remains stable at 75.16%, maintaining above 75% for six consecutive weeks [1] - 56.18% of stock private equity firms are fully invested, while 24.10% are at moderate levels, 12.64% at low levels, and 7.08% are in cash [1] Group 2 - Dongxing Securities notes that after fluctuations due to the tariff war and earnings disclosures in April, market concerns about index levels have decreased, shifting focus to market rhythm and opportunities [2] - The market is expected to remain in a range-bound phase, with the second quarter's fundamentals still unclear, and concerns about the fundamentals have not changed [2] - Eastern Securities highlights that substantial progress in China-US tariff negotiations has reduced economic downward pressure, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite [2]

越南政府：美国与越南结束第二轮关税谈判，仍有一些未解决的问题需进一步磋商。 ...