美国与欧盟的关税谈判期限延长至7月9日。 当地时间25日，美国总统特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日，他已同意这一请求。特朗普称，本次与欧盟就关税问题的谈话"非常愉快"。 受到该消息影响，美股指期货、欧股主要股指期货早间走高。 国际金融市场动荡 受到特朗普关税言论影响，上周五（5月23日），全球金融市场动荡，欧美股市普跌。截至当天收盘，美股道指跌0.61%，纳指跌1%，标普500指数跌0.67%；欧股 方面，英国富时100指数跌0.24%，盘中一度跌近2%，法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数、意大利富时MIB指数、欧元区斯托克50指数均跌超1%，盘中均跌超3%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 41603.07c | -256.02 | -0.61% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 18737.21c | -188.52 | -1.00% | | 标普500 | 5802.82c | -39.19 | -0.67% | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 英国富时100 | 8717.97 | -2 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that U.S. Steel and Japan's Nippon Steel are expected to form a partnership that could create 70,000 jobs and bring an investment of $14 billion, as stated by President Trump [1] - Trump's announcement came during the third round of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Japan, indicating that this partnership may become a topic of discussion in the negotiations [1][4] - The U.S. Foreign Investment Committee (CFIUS) has reviewed the acquisition proposal, but there are internal disagreements regarding the recommendation submitted to Trump [3] Group 2 - Both U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel responded positively to Trump's statement, describing it as "bold," although there remains uncertainty about the specifics of the acquisition [3] - The Japanese government is actively gathering information to understand Trump's true intentions regarding the acquisition, as there is confusion within Nippon Steel about the potential for majority control [4] - During the tariff negotiations, Japan is pushing for a ministerial-level agreement before the G7 summit, aiming to resolve issues related to tariffs on automobiles and parts [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue high - level oscillations, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis and a price range of 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - There is support on the domestic copper demand side, and the logic of tight copper raw material supply persists. Domestic social inventory is at a historically low level, and spot prices are in a continuous premium state. However, macro - level disturbances still bring uncertainties, such as the impact of US tariff negotiations on investor sentiment [6]. - In trading strategies, for single - side trading, look for phased trading opportunities, such as buying on price pull - backs. For spread trading, close out the term positive spread positions as domestic social inventory increases and spot premiums decline marginally. For internal - external arbitrage, pay attention to whether macro factors bring certainty to overseas copper prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: Volatility in four copper markets continues to decline. COMEX price volatility has dropped to around 20%, and LME copper price volatility has fallen to around 11% [10]. - **Term Spread**: The term B - structure of SHFE copper remains stable, with the spread between SHFE contracts 06 - 07 holding steady at 430 yuan/ton. The LME copper spot premium has narrowed, and the COMEX copper C - structure has also contracted [13][14]. - **Position**: Positions in SHFE copper and LME copper have decreased, while those in international copper and COMEX copper have increased. SHFE copper positions decreased by 0.95 million lots to 52.87 million lots [15]. - **Fund and Industry Positions**: CFTC non - commercial long net positions have decreased. LME commercial short net positions dropped from 61,400 lots on May 9th to 60,800 lots, and CFTC non - commercial long net positions declined from 21,522 lots on May 13th to 21,038 lots on May 20th [21]. - **Spot Premium**: Domestic copper spot premiums have narrowed, while premiums in Europe and Southeast Asia are at high levels. The domestic copper spot premium dropped from a premium of 445 yuan/ton on May 16th to 165 yuan/ton on May 23rd [24][26]. - **Inventory**: Global total copper inventory has decreased, domestic social inventory has increased, bonded area inventory has continuously decreased, COMEX inventory has increased, and LME copper inventory has declined [27][32]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper contract 06 is at a historically high level for the same period, while the LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded but is still at a historically low level [33]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Imports have increased, but processing fees remain weak, and smelting losses are significant. In April 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates reached 2.9244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.16% and a year - on - year increase of 24.55%. The spot TC for copper concentrate in the week of May 23rd was - 44.28 US dollars/ton, and smelter losses were around 3,769 yuan/ton [37][39]. - **Recycled Copper**: Imports have decreased, and domestic production has declined significantly. In April, recycled copper imports were 204,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%, and domestic recycled copper production was 87,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.50%. The scrap - refined copper price spread has narrowed, and import profitability has increased [40][45]. - **Blister Copper**: Imports have increased, and processing fees have rebounded. In April, blister copper imports were 74,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%, and processing fees in April showed a marginal rebound [50]. - **Refined Copper**: Production has increased more than expected, imports have decreased, and attention should be paid to copper import profit and loss. In April, domestic refined copper production was 2.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.27%, and imports were 250,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. Current import losses have widened, which may continue to limit overseas supplies from entering the domestic market [52][53]. 3.3 Demand End - **开工率**: The operating rates of copper product enterprises are differentiated, and overall they have weakened. In April, the operating rate of copper tubes was at a neutral - to - low level for the same period in history, and that of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral level. In the week of May 22nd, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined marginally [57]. - **Profit**: Copper rod processing fees are at a neutral level for the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees have rebounded. As of May 23rd, the processing fee for copper used in the power industry in East China was 715 yuan/ton, lower than the 995 yuan/ton on May 16th. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,129 yuan/ton, higher than the 5,098 yuan/ton on May 9th [60][63]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. In April, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a historically high level for the same period, while that of copper tubes was at a low level [64]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods has declined, and that of wire and cable has decreased. In April, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral level for the same period in history, and that of copper tubes was at a neutral - to - low level [67]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: Apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment is an important support. From January to April, the cumulative actual copper consumption was 5.0553 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.96%, and the apparent consumption was 5.2063 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. Power grid investment from January to April was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.60%, at a historically high level [71]. - **Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production**: The growth rate of air - conditioner production has slowed down, while new - energy vehicle production is at a historically high level for the same period. In April, domestic air - conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.91%, and new - energy vehicle production was 1.251 million units, a year - on - year increase of 43.79% [72].

本周，美元呈现下跌态势，主要是因资金逃离美元资产。资金出现这种流向，主要源于评级公司调降了 美国主权信用评级、特朗普减税法案对美国赤字前景的负面影响，以及关税后续谈判进展不顺利等因 素。 基于同样的原因，美国国债市场本周也遭遇大幅下跌。就当前情况来看，资金外流的最主要去向是欧 盟、英国及日本。 在本周，美国公布的经济指标数量并不多。周四公布的数据显示，尽管当前经济存在较高的不确定性， 但5月劳动力市场依然保持着稳健的增长态势。至5月17日当周初请失业金人数为22.7万人，优于市场预 期的23万人。这一数据在一定程度上反映了美国劳动力市场的韧性，但未能改变美元因资金外流等因素 导致的下跌趋势。 每日经济新闻 在经历连续四周的上涨之后，本周美元走势急剧转弱。美元指数在一周内累计大幅下跌1.84%，降至 99.10点。深入分析本周美元下跌的原因，主要有以下三个方面： 评级下调引发投资者信心动摇：5月16日，评级公司穆迪将美国主权信用评级从"Aaa"下调至"Aa1"。这 一举措使得投资者原本就存在的对美元资产的回避心理进一步加剧。穆迪作出这一评级调整，主要是出 于对美国超高财政赤字及沉重债务负担的担忧。这一评级下调事 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's consumer price index (excluding fresh food) rose by 3.5% year-on-year in April, with rice prices surging by 98.4%, marking the highest increase since 1971, prompting speculation about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][3]. Economic Data - The consumer price index (CPI) for April was reported at 110.9, up from 3.2% in March to 3.5% [3]. - Rice prices have increased significantly, with a 10 kg bag rising from 2000 yen to over 4000 yen, averaging 4268 yen (approximately 214 RMB) as of May 11 [1][3]. Government Response - The Japanese government initially took a wait-and-see approach to rising rice prices but began releasing reserve rice in March, which has not effectively curbed price increases [3]. - Former Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Takumi Eto, resigned amid criticism over his handling of the rice price crisis [4][5]. International Relations - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba discussed U.S. tariff measures with President Trump, agreeing to meet during the G7 summit in June [1][7]. - Japan is considering increasing rice imports from the U.S. as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations, facing opposition from domestic farmers [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices fluctuated this week, with all but the Small - and - Medium 100 recording slight declines. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small - and - medium - cap stocks. The release of weaker domestic economic data in April put pressure on the market, and although the LPR cut briefly restored market sentiment, the lack of further catalysts led to a market correction. Market trading activity decreased slightly compared to last week. For stocks, the configuration suggestion is to be cautious and wait and see [6]. - In the bond market, the long - term bond bull market may still be expected, but in the short term, due to the phased results of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cut benefits, the market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased significantly, and the bond market fluctuated weakly. The configuration suggestion is also to be cautious and wait and see [6]. - The commodity market may experience a correction after the release of the positive effects brought by the repair of trade relations. The configuration suggestion is to short at high prices [6]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the rise in fiscal pressure and the damage to the credit of US dollar assets. The euro fluctuated due to factors such as the pressure of tariff negotiations and the expectation of interest rate cuts. The yen showed a slightly stronger and fluctuating pattern. The configuration suggestion for foreign exchange is to be cautious and wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Configuration Suggestions Stocks - Performance: A - share major indices fluctuated, with all but the Small - and - Medium 100 recording slight declines. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small - and - medium - cap stocks. The market was pressured by weaker economic data in April, briefly recovered with the LPR cut, and then corrected due to the lack of catalysts. Market trading activity decreased slightly [6]. - Configuration Suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see [6]. Bonds - Performance: In the long - term, the bond bull market may still be expected, but in the short term, the bond market fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the phased results of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cut benefits [6]. - Configuration Suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see [6]. Commodities - Performance: After the release of the positive effects brought by the repair of trade relations, the commodity market may experience a correction [6]. - Configuration Suggestion: Short at high prices [6]. Foreign Exchange - Performance: The US dollar index fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the rise in fiscal pressure and the damage to the credit of US dollar assets. The euro fluctuated due to factors such as the pressure of tariff negotiations and the expectation of interest rate cuts. The yen showed a slightly stronger and fluctuating pattern [6]. - Configuration Suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **China - related**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's tightening restrictions on Chinese chips, emphasizing that the US measures are discriminatory and that relevant parties may be held legally responsible. China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version, adding 9 new chapters. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy. The "15th Five - Year Plan" compilation work launched an online opinion - solicitation activity [15]. - **International**: Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating to AA1. Trump will set new tariff rates for trading partners in the next two to three weeks. Fed officials hinted that it may be difficult to cut interest rates before September. ECB officials said that a June interest rate cut cannot be ruled out [17]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In April, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.1% (expected 5.5%, previous value 5.9%); the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 6.1% (expected 5.5%, previous value 7.7%); the year - to - date year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment was 4% (expected 4.2%, previous value 4.2%); the one - year LPR as of May 20 was 3% (expected 3%, previous value 3.1%) [18]. - **US**: As of the week ending May 17, the number of initial jobless claims was 227,000 (expected 230,000, previous value 229,000); the preliminary value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.1, previous value 50.2) [18]. - **EU**: The final value of the CPI annual rate in April was 2.2% (expected 2.2%, previous value 2.2%); the preliminary value of the consumer confidence index in May was - 15.2 (expected - 16, previous value - 16.7); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49) [18]. - **UK**: The annual rate of the core retail price index in April was 4.2% (previous value 2.8); the annual rate of the retail price index in April was 4.5% (expected 4.2, previous value 3.2); the annual rate of the core CPI in April was 3.8% (expected 3.6, previous value 3.4); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI in May was 45.1 (expected 46, previous value 45.4) [18]. - **Germany**: The monthly rate of PPI in April was - 0.6% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.7); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.8 (expected 48.9, previous value 48.4) [18]. - **France**: The preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5 (expected 48.9, previous value 48.7) [18]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - May 27: At 14:45, the final value of France's May CPI monthly rate (previous value 0.6); at 21:00, the annual rate of the unadjusted house price index of 20 major cities in the US in March (previous value 4.5) [88]. - May 28: At 14:45, the final value of France's Q1 GDP annual rate; at 15:55, Germany's seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate in May (previous value 6.3) [88]. - May 29: At 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 24; the revised value of the annualized quarterly rate of the US Q1 real GDP [88]. - May 30: At 07:30, Japan's April unemployment rate (previous value 2.5); at 20:00, the preliminary value of Germany's May CPI monthly rate (previous value 0.4); at 20:30, the annual rate of the US April core PCE price index (previous value 2.6); at 21:45, the US May Chicago PMI (previous value 44.6); at 22:00, the final value of the US May University of Michigan consumer confidence index (previous value 52.2) [88].

日本首相石破茂与美国总统特朗普（REUTERS） 双方进行了45分钟的电话磋商。将根据关税谈判的进展，协调石破的访美计划…… 日本首相石破茂5月23日与美国总统特朗普进行了45分钟的电话磋商。双方就美国关税措施 的应对以及经济安全保障领域的合作交换了意见，还确认将在6月于加拿大召开的七国集团首 脑会议（G7峰会）期间，举行日美首脑会谈。将根据关税谈判的进展，协调石破的访美计 划。 电话磋商结束后，石破在日本首相官邸向记者团透露，此次通话是应美方提议进行的。石破 就预定于5月23日在华盛顿举行的日美部长级关税磋商称："已向对方表示希望进行建设性的 磋商，特朗普总统也表示同意"。 G7峰会将于6月15日~17日在加拿大西部的卡纳纳斯基斯（Kananaskis）举行。石破在电话 中表示："期待进行面对面会谈"。据称，特朗普也表达了同样的意向。 日美已确认将在关税谈判中以最终达成首脑间协议为目标。将根据部长级磋商的进展，探讨 石破在峰会前后访美的可能性。 日本正在商讨通过扩大投资以及创造就业岗位等能对美国经济做出贡献的方案。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 htt ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a pullback on Friday, with all three major indices turning negative, and the ChiNext index dropping over 1% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also reversed its earlier gains, which had exceeded 1% [1] - A50 futures index saw a sharp decline, reporting a drop of 0.75% [3] Group 2 - Government bond futures turned upward across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.06%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.06%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.04% [5] - Gold prices surged, with New York gold futures rising by over 1%, while A-share gold stocks rallied, with Western Gold hitting the limit up, and other stocks like Xiaocheng Technology, Mankalon, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold also seeing gains [5] Group 3 - U.S. President Trump urged the EU to reduce tariffs, warning of more tariffs if they do not comply [7] - Japanese Prime Minister discussed U.S. tariff measures with Trump, maintaining a stance on the removal of tariffs, and also addressed diplomatic and security issues [7] Group 4 - A significant policy briefing is scheduled for next Tuesday, where officials will discuss reforms and innovations in national-level economic and technological development zones [8]

Group 1 - The core discussion between US President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida involved tariffs, with no specific comments made by Trump during their 45-minute call [1] - Kishida reiterated Japan's consistent stance on tariff elimination, indicating that Japan is still under Trump's attention despite lagging in trade agreement negotiations [1] - The leaders expressed their anticipation to meet at the G7 summit in June in Canada [1] Group 2 - Kishida's chief trade negotiator, Akizawa Ryozo, is set to meet with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to be absent [2] - The likelihood of reaching an agreement in the latest round of negotiations appears low, as the Trump administration has imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles, steel, and aluminum, with a potential increase to 24% in July unless an agreement is reached [3] - The automotive sector, which constitutes about one-third of Japan's total exports to the US, is a critical driver of Japan's economic growth, employing approximately 8% of the workforce [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent weakness in the 20 - year US Treasury auction and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's have led to a decline in the 10 - year US Treasury and the US dollar index. Geopolitical issues in the Middle East and concerns about stagflation from tariffs have provided upward momentum for precious metals [2][4]. - For copper, due to factors such as high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns, the copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation [7][10]. - In the case of alumina, the suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea may narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and the price of alumina is expected to be strong in the short term [14][19][20]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, with ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, along with factors like declining LME inventories and increasing imports, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate [23][26]. - For zinc, as some smelters resume production and downstream demand remains weak, the zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range [28][29]. - In the lead market, the current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement [31][34]. - For nickel, although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, suppressing the upside of the nickel price [36][39][40]. - Stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with short - term support from production cuts and costs, but lacking upward demand drivers [41][42]. - For industrial silicon, with increasing supply and high inventory, the price is under pressure, and short - term short positions are recommended [45][46]. - In the polysilicon market, with production and demand adjustments and ongoing contract delivery contradictions, short - term short positions are still recommended [48][51][52]. - For lithium carbonate, due to weak downstream demand expectations and high inventories, short positions are advisable [54][57]. - In the tin market, with the phased resumption of African tin mines and limited demand improvement, the tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term [59][61]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.76% to $3314.36 per ounce, and London silver rose 0.95% to $33.38 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.92% to 777.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.86% to 8285 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.56% to 99.60, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.587%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.19% to 7.203 [2]. Important资讯 - The US Commerce Secretary hopes to reach trade agreements with major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the market expects two interest rate cuts this year. There are geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the 20 - year US Treasury auction had weak demand [2]. Logic Analysis - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and weak 20 - year US Treasury auctions have led to a decline in the US Treasury and the US dollar index. Fed officials' concerns about tariffs and geopolitical issues in the Middle East have provided upward momentum for precious metals [4]. Trading Strategy - Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. Copper Market Review - The LME copper price fell 0.28% to $9487. LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168,800 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1401 short tons to 173,023 short tons [7]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a winning yield of 5.047%. Peru plans to set up a "mining fund" for small - scale miners. Vicuna expects two copper projects in Argentina to start production in 2030. China's imports of anode copper and electrolytic copper had different trends in April [7][8]. Logic Analysis - US trade negotiations, high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns affect the copper market. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the market may show a back structure in the medium term. Demand remains resilient during the 90 - day tariff suspension [10]. Trading Strategy - The copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures price of alumina 2509 contract rose 1.85% to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in various regions increased [12]. Important资讯 - Bauxite mining in the Guinea AXIS矿区 has been suspended, with an annual capacity of about 40 million tons. The transition authorities in Guinea have designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserves. There was a spot alumina transaction in Guangxi on May 21 [14][15][16]. Logic Analysis - The suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea is likely to narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite. The price of bauxite is expected to rise to $75 - 80. The impact on alumina is more medium - term, and short - term supply and demand may change if alumina production capacities resume [19]. Trading Strategy - The alumina price is expected to be strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract fell 30 yuan per ton to 20,185 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. Important资讯 - EU - US trade negotiations are ongoing. The US 20 - year Treasury auction had an impact on the market. Global primary aluminum production in April was 6.033 million tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot imports reached a record high in April [23][25]. Logic Analysis - With ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, the LME aluminum inventory is decreasing, and aluminum imports are increasing. The aluminum consumption shows an upward trend, and the inventory is at a low level, which may support the price spread [26]. Trading Strategy - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; consider long positions in the 06 - 09 contract spread for arbitrage; wait and see for options [26]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc price fell 1.47% to $2684.5 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan per ton. The spot market had weak downstream demand and a slight decline in the spot premium [28]. Important资讯 - The LME has approved three additional warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The tender price of a zinc mine in North China increased [28][29]. Logic Analysis - As some smelters resume production, supply may increase, while downstream demand remains weak. The zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range, and may decline with inventory accumulation [29]. Trading Strategy - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within a range, and short positions can be lightly tried at high prices for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead price fell 0.28% to $1978.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2507 contract fell 0.33% to 16,835 yuan per ton. The spot market had regional transactions, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs [31]. Important资讯 - China's lead concentrate imports in April decreased 4.3% month - on - month but increased 22.1% year - on - year. Some secondary lead smelters plan to resume production [32][34]. Logic Analysis - The current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement. Short - term macro factors should be monitored [34]. Trading Strategy - No specific trading strategy details provided in the text. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose $100 to $15,630 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201,786 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 400 yuan to 123,760 yuan per ton. Spot premiums had different changes [36]. Important资讯 - Nickel Industries' production and sales data in the first quarter of 2025 are reported. Hong Kong has more LME - approved warehouses. In March 2025, there was a supply surplus of 39,400 tons of refined nickel globally [36][39]. Logic Analysis - Although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, and the improvement in the nickel ore shortage situation will suppress the upside of the nickel price [40]. Trading Strategy - The nickel price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel 2507 fell 5 yuan to 12,870 yuan per ton. Spot prices for cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are reported [42]. Important资讯 - China's stainless steel exports decreased 5% in April, and imports increased 10% [42]. Logic Analysis - There may be a supply shortage of 304 stainless steel, but demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is difficult to digest. The price is expected to oscillate widely, following the nickel price and macro - sentiment [42]. Trading Strategy - The stainless steel price is expected to be slightly strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon main contract fell 1.75% to 7865 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and downstream demand was weak [45]. Important资讯 - The US has launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal [45]. Logic Analysis - With increasing supply and high inventory, the price of industrial silicon is under pressure. Although there is some speculative buying demand below 8000 yuan, the actual supply - demand situation has not improved [46]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading; sell out - of - the - money call options; conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 contracts [46]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon main contract rose 0.93% to 35,860 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [48]. Important资讯 - China's electricity consumption data in April are reported [49]. Logic Analysis - Production and demand of polysilicon and silicon wafers are adjusted in May, and there is an inventory reduction. The spot price is weak, and there is a contradiction between the downward fundamentals and contract delivery. Short - term fluctuations are intense [51]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the PS2507 contract for single - side trading; sell PS2507 - C - 40000 options; wait and see for arbitrage [52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract 2507 rose 240 yuan to 61,100 yuan per ton. SMM - reported spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [54]. Important资讯 - A lithium - salt project in Yiliping has improved lithium recovery, and a lithium - salt enterprise in Jiangxi plans to conduct maintenance [55][57]. Logic Analysis - Downstream demand expectations are weak, and inventories are high. Short positions are advisable until there is a clear signal of overseas mine production cuts [57]. Trading Strategy - Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; hold put ratio options [57]. Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.36% to 266,150 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees were stable. The market had limited actual transactions [59]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a high winning yield [59]. Logic Analysis - The high winning yield of the 20 - year US Treasury bonds has increased risk - aversion sentiment. African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tightness is expected to ease. The tin price is mainly driven by macro factors [61]. Trading Strategy - The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for options [61].