Group 1 - The core issue affecting China's economic growth is the demand problem, which has been prioritized in economic work for two consecutive years [1][2] - The main contradiction in economic operation has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, necessitating a focus on resolving demand issues for stable economic development [2] - The expansion of domestic demand policies has been extensive and impactful, contributing positively to economic performance this year [2] Group 2 - Consumption demand is influenced by both short-term market fluctuations and long-term structural factors, requiring a dual approach of immediate stimulus and addressing deeper issues [3][5] - The shift in consumer behavior from goods to services highlights the need for targeted support in sectors like education, healthcare, and elder care [5] - Effective investment remains crucial alongside consumption, with a focus on meeting consumer needs and expanding investment opportunities [6] Group 3 - Key areas for investment include urban renewal, old community renovation, rural infrastructure, and revitalizing homestead land, which present significant demand potential [8] - Promoting private and foreign investment requires continuous domestic demand policies and improvements in the business environment through reforms and openness [8]

Core Insights - Guizhou Province is launching a series of consumer promotion activities for 2026, focusing on various sectors including automotive, retail, dining, traditional brands, online goods, cultural tourism, and local liquor [1][3] Group 1: Promotion Activities - The theme for 2026 is "Shopping in China · Colorful Guizhou Happy Shopping," with year-round activities aligned with seasonal characteristics and local resources [3] - Key promotional activities will coincide with major consumption periods such as New Year, Spring Festival, Labor Day, summer, and National Day, utilizing a model of "government funding + financial support + enterprise discounts" [3] - In the first quarter of 2026, there will be subsidies for individuals purchasing new cars within the province, along with consumer vouchers from partnered supermarkets to reduce daily living costs [3][5] Group 2: Consumer Incentives - A "ticket root linkage" promotion will be introduced, allowing out-of-province tourists to enjoy discounts in designated shopping areas and restaurants by presenting tickets from various events [5] - The promotion of local liquor will include quarterly online consumption vouchers that do not require coupons, facilitating nationwide purchases through the "Guizhou Cloud Exhibition" platform [5] - The 15th Wine Expo will feature special consumption vouchers, providing online and offline discounts to expand the market for Guizhou liquor [5] Group 3: Economic Impact - The initiatives aim to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate demand, contributing to the high-quality economic development of Guizhou [5]

Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies aimed at promoting consumption and expanding investment to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [6][1]. Export Performance - China's exports showed resilience in 2025, with nominal year-on-year growth of 5.4% in USD terms and 6.2% in RMB terms for the first 11 months [7]. - The strong export performance is attributed to factors such as transshipment trade, increased capital goods exports driven by Chinese companies going abroad, and the delayed impact of US tariffs on global trade [8][10]. - For 2026, it is projected that China's exports will continue to grow by 3.4% year-on-year, supported by stable US-China tariffs and cost advantages [10][31]. Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment in China is expected to recover slightly in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of around 2%, up from approximately 1% in 2025 [2][57]. - The recovery is supported by resilient exports and continued policy support for advanced manufacturing, particularly in the context of national security and technological development [49][57]. - Factors such as "strong supply and weak demand" and "anti-involution" expectations have negatively impacted manufacturing investment in 2025, but these conditions are expected to improve [39][40]. Real Estate Sector - The direct drag of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to weaken in 2026, with a projected year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales area of about 5% [59]. - Real estate investment is anticipated to decline by approximately 11% year-on-year in 2026, an improvement from a 16% decline in 2025, indicating a reduced direct impact on the economy [63][58]. - Policies are being implemented to mitigate the risks associated with a weakening real estate sector, including measures to support housing demand and improve the financial health of real estate companies [63][66]. Consumption and Investment Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is identified as a crucial path to achieving the 5% GDP growth target in 2026, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [66]. - The government is expected to maintain support for consumption through special bonds, with funding levels likely to remain at least equal to the 300 billion RMB allocated in 2025 [67][72]. - Infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to around 8% year-on-year in 2026, supported by previously announced policies and a focus on major projects [4][66].

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth rate is expected to remain stable, with a slight slowdown from 2.8% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation [4] - Strong investment in artificial intelligence is anticipated to support investment and trade growth over the next two years [2][4] Trade Dynamics - Global goods and services trade is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2025, accelerating from 3.0% in 2024, but is expected to slow to 2.0% in 2026 due to various factors including reduced consumer spending in the U.S. [5] - Tariff uncertainties have decreased, yet trade policies and geopolitical risks continue to pose challenges [5] Asian Export Resilience - Despite fluctuations in tariff risks, Asia's overall export performance has exceeded expectations, remaining stronger than other regions [6] - The export growth rate in Asia is expected to slow in 2026 but will still outperform the global average [7] China's Economic Strategy - In 2026, China will focus on expanding domestic demand as a key policy priority, with structural reforms and increased openness to foreign investment [2][8] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the household consumption rate, which was 39.9% in 2024, as a critical goal for high-quality development [8] Investment and Fiscal Policies - Fixed asset investment is expected to recover, particularly in infrastructure, supported by new policy financial tools [9] - The fiscal deficit target for China in 2026 is likely to remain at 4%, with local government bonds issued to support consumption and major projects [9] Innovation and Competitiveness - Innovation capability is projected to become a core advantage for China, attracting foreign investment and enhancing service trade exports [12] - The government aims to regulate supply-side competition to ensure efficient resource allocation and promote fair competition [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need to prioritize domestic demand in 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and effective investment to support a strong domestic market [2] Group 1: Policy Effectiveness in 2025 - The government has utilized public budget funds to enhance disposable income through various subsidies, thereby increasing consumer willingness to spend [3] - Special long-term bonds have been employed to support the replacement of old consumer goods, stabilizing and expanding consumption [3] - Employment services and vocational training have been improved through policies like tax reductions and employment subsidies, promoting job opportunities for key demographics [3] - A comprehensive social security system has been established to alleviate concerns for citizens, thereby boosting consumer confidence [3] - Development funds have been allocated to support commercial construction in rural areas, enhancing the consumption environment and unlocking rural consumption potential [3] Group 2: Challenges in Policy Implementation - Global economic growth is sluggish, and rising protectionism necessitates a greater reliance on domestic markets to drive economic growth [5] - Despite being a leader in agricultural and industrial consumption, challenges remain in scaling and improving quality in domestic demand [5] - New infrastructure investments still have room for growth, but issues such as reliance on imported technology and lack of unified standards pose significant challenges [5] - The government faces difficulties in balancing short-term performance pressures with long-term investments in human capital [7] Group 3: Recommendations for Expanding Domestic Demand - The government should increase fiscal spending to ensure necessary expenditures, focusing on public service and social welfare investments [9] - There is a need to combine domestic demand expansion with improving living standards, ensuring that public services meet the quality and quantity required by citizens [9] - Policy support and innovative reforms should be implemented to provide robust fiscal backing for expanding domestic demand, enhancing budget management and efficiency [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Jiangsu Provincial Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic move to enhance the domestic market and address the current economic challenges, particularly the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand [1][10]. Group 1: Importance of Expanding Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand is crucial for the economic operation of Jiangsu, as it addresses the urgent need to strengthen effective demand within the province's economy [2]. - Effective demand is defined as the total demand that includes both the willingness and ability to pay for goods and services, which is essential for determining overall economic output and employment levels [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics and Dynamics of Effective Demand - Effective demand is characterized by its reality and feasibility, being an immediate demand that can be converted into actual purchasing behavior, influenced by factors such as income levels and credit policies [4]. - It is dynamic and can change based on various factors, including price, income, and consumer preferences, indicating that effective demand is not static [4]. - Effective demand typically experiences cyclical fluctuations, heavily influenced by business expectations, which can lead to significant variations in investment demand [5]. Group 3: Challenges of Insufficient Effective Demand - Insufficient effective demand is a common issue in market economies, often resulting from psychological factors such as diminishing marginal propensity to consume and liquidity preference, leading to a natural tendency for demand to fall short [5]. - The lack of effective demand can weaken economic circulation dynamics, disrupt the production-consumption cycle, and lead to a decline in consumer confidence and spending [7]. - Insufficient effective demand can also trigger structural issues on the supply side, resulting in overcapacity in certain industries while high-end products remain in short supply [8]. Group 4: Strategies to Enhance Effective Demand - To increase effective demand, it is essential to raise residents' income and employment levels, thereby solidifying the foundation for consumer spending [12]. - Optimizing the consumption environment and policies is necessary to unleash the potential of effective demand, including initiatives to stimulate basic consumption and remove barriers to spending [13]. - Expanding effective investment and optimizing supply structure are critical, focusing on key infrastructure and modern industrial investments to enhance the overall economic framework [13][14].

Economic Outlook - The actual GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is projected to be around 4.8%, maintaining a medium-high growth level[2] - Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025[4] - China's fixed asset investment growth is forecasted to turn positive at 2.5% in 2026, recovering from a negative growth of -3.0% in 2025[4] Trade and Export Impact - China's export growth is anticipated to decline significantly from approximately 5.0% in 2025 to around 1.0% in 2026 due to increased U.S. tariffs[15] - The average U.S. import tariff rate is projected to rise to 19.5% in 2026, impacting global trade dynamics[8] Policy Measures - The target fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is set to remain at 4.0%, with an increase in new special bond issuance expected to reach 5.0 trillion yuan[41] - A reduction in interest rates by 0.3 percentage points is anticipated in 2026, with a focus on maintaining liquidity in the market[52] Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer retail sales growth is expected to accelerate to 5.0%-6.0% in 2026, up from 3.9% in 2025, driven by enhanced consumption policies[65] - Infrastructure investment growth is projected to increase to 5.0% in 2026, significantly higher than the previous year's performance[71] Inflation and Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise to 0.4% in 2026, indicating a slight improvement in the low inflation environment[76] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecasted to decline by -1.8% in 2026, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the economy[76]

Group 1: New Quality Productive Forces - In 2025, China focuses on technological innovation and industrial upgrading to cultivate new quality productive forces, enhancing the foundation for high-quality development [2] - Traditional industries are crucial for accelerating the development of new quality productive forces, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology releasing action plans for ten key industries [2] - Strategic emerging industries and future industries are the main battlegrounds for cultivating new quality productive forces, with significant growth in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and quantum technology [2][3] Group 2: Expanding Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand is a strategic choice for China to respond to economic changes and promote high-quality development, with policies implemented to stimulate consumption and investment [4] - Consumer markets are recovering, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment, with year-on-year increases of 14.8%, 18.2%, and 20.9% respectively [6] - Investment in emerging sectors is also strong, with notable increases in manufacturing and renewable energy investments, such as a 15.3% growth in automotive manufacturing [6] Group 3: High-Level Opening Up - Expanding high-level opening up is essential for China's high-quality development, providing stability to the uncertain global economy [7] - China's foreign trade resilience is improving, with policies promoting service exports and green trade, reflecting a commitment to innovative leadership [7][8] - Trade with major partners like ASEAN has seen growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in trade volume [8] Group 4: Risk Mitigation - In 2025, China continues to address key risk areas to ensure high-quality development, with measures in place to manage local government debt and mitigate financial risks [9] - The real estate sector has seen successful completion of housing delivery tasks, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and supporting housing supply [9] Group 5: Appropriate Monetary Easing - Since 2025, a moderately loose monetary policy has been in effect, with social financing scale increasing significantly, reaching 33.39 trillion yuan in the first eleven months [10] - The structure of credit has improved, supporting key sectors and strategic economic transformations, with notable growth in technology and green loans [11] Group 6: Green Transition - China has introduced numerous policies for green low-carbon transition and ecological civilization construction, achieving significant progress in various fields [14] - The energy structure is shifting towards non-fossil sources, with ambitious targets for renewable energy installations [14][15] - The green economy is thriving, with over 218.7 million existing green economy-related enterprises, indicating sustained vitality in the sector [14]

Core Viewpoint - The demand issue has become the most decisive factor affecting the sustained and stable growth of China's economy, with expanding domestic demand being prioritized in economic work for two consecutive years [1] Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - The policies aimed at expanding domestic demand this year have been extensive and forceful, achieving positive effects and playing a crucial role in meeting development goals [1] - There is a notable "strong supply, weak demand" issue in the economy, with significant challenges for enterprise development and pressure on employment and income for the public [1] - The marginal weakening trend of the economy has intensified entering the fourth quarter, necessitating considerable efforts to promote overall economic recovery [1] Group 2: Future Strategies for Demand Expansion - To further stimulate domestic demand, it is essential to effectively release consumption demand potential through both short-term and long-term measures [2] - Structural counter-cyclical consumption stimulus policies should be emphasized, optimizing the support range and structure for commodity consumption while increasing support for service consumption [2] - Implementing effective resident income increase plans and enhancing social security and public service levels for low-income groups are crucial for boosting consumer confidence [2] - Supply-side policies should be strengthened by reducing entry restrictions, optimizing regulatory policies, and enhancing domestic standards and brand development [2] Group 3: Investment and Economic Growth - There remains significant potential for expanding investment, whether in physical assets or human capital, which can continue to drive growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - A suitable institutional and policy environment is necessary to support investment, which can be a vital force for growth if the relevant frameworks are in place [2] - China's economic development advantages are unique and substantial, and adhering to the central economic work meeting's requirements can further promote economic recovery and lay a solid foundation for achieving the 2035 goals [2]

央视网消息（新闻联播）：记者从财政部了解到，2026年，我国将连续第二年实施更加积极的财政政 策，着力扩内需、优结构、增动能、惠民生。将扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度，优化政府债券 工具组合，提高转移支付资金效能，持续优化支出结构，加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 2026年，更加积极的财政政策将坚持内需主导，支持建设强大国内市场，大力提振消费，深入实施提振 消费专项行动，继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新，调整优化补贴范围和标准。积极扩大有效投资，加 大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入。同时，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。 此外，2026年，更加积极的财政政策还将支持科技创新和产业创新深度融合，推进城乡融合和区域联 动，进一步加强民生保障，推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型等，增强经济发展后劲和百姓获得感。 ...