2025 年 A 股业绩前瞻：结构分化加剧，资源与制造板块领跑 证券研究报告/策略专题报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 一、业绩预告全景：整体偏弱，分化显著 截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日共有 2963 家上市公司披露业绩预警，整体喜忧参半，但以"报 忧"为主基调。"报喜"类（预增、续盈、略增、扭亏）公司共 1095 家，占比约 37%； "报忧"类（预减、略减、续亏、首亏）公司则有 1867 家，占比约 63%。整体来看， 2025 年上市公司盈利整体呈现企稳回升趋势，但整体仍处于弱通道。另外，不少企业 盈利同比有所改善，但分化明显，仍有大批公司未能实现盈利增长。 相关报告 行业方面，2025 年出现集中"报喜"的行业有非银金融，有色金属，美容护理，汽车 与公用事业。集中"报忧"的行业有煤炭，房地产，轻工制造，食品饮料和建筑装饰。 非银金融板块集体预增，业绩预警表现远好于其他行业， ...

会议分析了数字经济纵深推进、AI技术浪潮迭起、新型能源体系加速构建等多重战略机遇，紧扣发展新质生产力、强化科技创新的 国家战略部署，结合企业深化数字化转型与"AI+"行动的要求，以及国家电网公司推动数字化智能化升级的重点方向，对公司下一步 发展进行了深入研讨和谋划部署。远光软件董事长石瑞杰表示，公司将主动把握宏观政策导向与技术发展趋势的战略机遇，聚焦"数 智企业、智慧能源"两大领域精准发力，加速推进市场拓展与完善多元产品矩阵，在国产信创深化、人工智能、能源数字化变革中把 握先机。 2026年，远光软件的发展蓝图清晰而坚定。在市场方面，坚持深耕与拓展并重，既锚定能源电力行业持续深耕细作、做深做透，又 积极向施工建筑、装备制造、医疗等行业全面发力、拓展布局；同时，深化数字孪生电网、虚拟电厂、碳市场等智慧能源新兴业 务，构建全域协同、多点支撑的市场格局。在产品方面，驱动研发模式和产品矩阵迭代升级，深化垂域大模型及大小模型协同等前 沿技术应用，以更智能的应用体验、更高效的服务响应，精准满足客户需求。 转自：新华财经 1月29日，远光软件股份有限公司召开三届三次职工代表大会暨2026年工作会议。本次会议在系统总结202 ...

过去一年，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，在中共北京市委直接领导下，在市人大及其常 委会监督支持下，我们坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻党的二十大和二十 届历次全会精神，深入贯彻习近平总书记对北京重要讲话精神，加强"四个中心"功能建设，提高"四个 服务"水平，深化"五子"联动服务和融入新发展格局，坚持统筹发展和安全，经济顶压前行、向新向优 发展，社会大局保持稳定，较好完成了市十六届人大三次会议确定的目标任务。全市地区生产总值5.2 万亿元、增长5.4%、高于全国0.4个百分点，一般公共预算收入增长4.8%，城镇调查失业率4.1%，居民 政府工作报告 ——2026年1月25日在北京市第十六届人民代表大会第四次会议上 北京市市长 殷勇 殷勇同志作政府工作报告。本报记者 戴冰摄 各位代表： 现在，我代表北京市人民政府，向大会报告政府工作，请予审议，并请市政协委员提出意见。 一、2025年工作回顾 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年。习近平总书记高度重视首都工作，在听取中国人民抗日战争暨世界反 法西斯战争胜利80周年纪念活动总结报告时发表重要讲话，充分肯定纪念活动服务保障工作；向2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Artificial Intelligence Development Bureau in Nanjing's Yuhuatai District signifies a strategic shift towards actively utilizing data resources to drive industrial upgrades and regional economic growth, emphasizing the importance of collaboration between data management and AI application [3][4][6] Group 1: Relationship Between Data and AI Management - The metaphor of "managing rice" (data) and "managing meals" (AI) illustrates the interdependent yet distinct roles of data governance and AI development [3] - The new bureau aims to transform data into tangible economic and social benefits, highlighting a shift from merely accumulating data to generating real-world value [4] - Successful collaboration between the data bureau and the AI bureau is crucial, as AI applications require high-quality data, while data governance must adapt based on AI's practical needs [4][5] Group 2: Implications for Modern Governance and Industry - The separation and collaboration of data and AI management reflect a fundamental issue in modern professional specialization, emphasizing the need for transparent and permeable boundaries between data repositories and algorithm libraries [5] - The initiative in Yuhuatai District serves as a microcosm for exploring how organizational adjustments can stimulate new productivity development forms [5][6] - The transition from "managing rice" to "managing meals" encapsulates the entire value creation chain in the digital economy, highlighting the ongoing tension between specialized functions and systemic collaboration in modern governance [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Shenzhen's significant transformation towards high-quality development, focusing on new, green, and intelligent initiatives, as evidenced by various electricity consumption statistics and the growth of the automotive industry [1][5][6] - In 2025, Shenzhen's automotive manufacturing electricity consumption increased by 23.98%, while traditional high-energy-consuming manufacturing saw a decline of 3.56%. BYD's sales of new energy vehicles reached 4.602 million units, a growth of 7.73%, with pure electric vehicle sales increasing by 27.86% to 2.2567 million units [1][5] - The overall electricity consumption in Shenzhen reached 127.215 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, marking a growth of 4.71%, with the secondary industry growing by 2.28% and the tertiary industry by 7.24% [5][6] Group 2 - The "20+8" industrial cluster strategy in Shenzhen is flourishing, with electricity consumption in the pharmaceutical manufacturing, computer communication equipment manufacturing, and instrumentation manufacturing sectors growing by 6.57%, 8.87%, and 9.20%, respectively [6] - The construction of over 1,000 supercharging stations has led to a 16.22% increase in electricity consumption for charging stations, reaching 6.942 billion kilowatt-hours, which accounts for nearly 15% of the tertiary industry's electricity consumption [12] - In 2025, the information transmission, software, and IT service sectors saw a 27.07% increase in electricity consumption, with data center electricity consumption reaching 3.454 billion kilowatt-hours, a growth of 14.92% [12][15]

Group 1 - The State Council's plan aims to optimize service supply and cultivate new growth points in service consumption to enhance quality of life and support high-quality economic development [1] - Key areas of focus include promoting the integration of transportation services and tourism, expanding inbound consumption, and optimizing performance management in the entertainment sector [1][2] - The plan emphasizes the importance of financial and fiscal support, establishing credit systems in sectors like elderly care and tourism, and developing relevant standards for service consumption [1] Group 2 - The National Science and Technology Work Conference highlighted the need to strengthen basic research and enhance the capacity for independent research and development [3][4] - The conference emphasized the integration of technological innovation with industrial innovation and the importance of international cooperation to improve the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system [3] Group 3 - The National Taxation Work Conference outlined a focus on high-quality tax practices, emphasizing the need for legal compliance, digital transformation, and strict tax management [5][6] - Key goals include creating a comprehensive tax revenue governance system and addressing issues related to tax compliance and management in key sectors [5] Group 4 - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance released guidelines to improve the temporary assistance system, focusing on providing quick aid for urgent needs and supporting vulnerable families [7][8] - The guidelines aim to enhance the efficiency and accessibility of temporary assistance, particularly for families facing sudden financial burdens [7] Group 5 - The Ministry of Natural Resources and other departments introduced measures to lower costs and optimize resource use to support the reform and development of elderly care services [9][10] - Key initiatives include allowing flexible land use for elderly care facilities and promoting innovative resource combinations to enhance service delivery [9] Group 6 - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to deepen "Belt and Road" cooperation and optimize foreign investment policies to enhance market access and support foreign enterprises [11][12] - The focus is on expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as green minerals, clean energy, and digital economy [11][12] Group 7 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission outlined the direction for the next round of state-owned enterprise reforms, focusing on optimizing the layout and structure of state-owned economies [14][15] - Emphasis is placed on promoting technological innovation and enhancing the management and supervision of state-owned assets [14] Group 8 - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security outlined key tasks in employment, social security, talent development, and labor relations to enhance social welfare [17] - Initiatives include expanding employment opportunities, reforming social security systems, and protecting the rights of new employment forms [17]

先说广东，这个"老大哥"的位置真是稳如泰山，2025年GDP达到145846.76亿元，占全国经济总量的10.4%——全国每产出10块钱，就有1块多来自广东。在 14.5万亿这么大的体量上，还能保持3.08%的增长，增量有4357.9亿元，实属不易。 它的底气来自哪里？首先是开放前沿的地位无可替代，去年新设外资企业增长了38.7%，入境游客超9000万人次。更重要的是创新驱动，全省研发投入超过 5000亿元，连续9年全国第一，"深圳—香港—广州"创新集群都排到全球顶尖了。 那咱老百姓感受最深的可能是满街跑的新能源车，广东去年限额以上新能源汽车零售额增长了11.7%，很多都出口到了全球100多个国家和地区；还有那些 送快递、撒农药的无人机，产量增长了39%，很多也是"广东造"。这个经济巨无霸，新经济增加值已经占到GDP的26.7%，正在用新科技焕发新活力。 2025年全国GDP数据终于揭晓了，总量站上了140万亿元的新台阶，达到了1401879.2亿元。今天咱们不面面俱到，就挑四个特别有代表性的省市聊聊：一个 是稳坐头把交椅的广东，一个是中部势头正猛的湖北，还有两个虽处后端但各有突破的辽宁和西藏。从它们身上，你 ...

（APEC 2026年第一次高官会在广州举办。资料图） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 广州报道 早春2月，岭南大地春意正浓，千年商都广州迎来亚太经合组织（APEC）"中国年"首场盛会——APEC 2026年第一次高官会。 外交部发言人郭嘉昆在例行记者会上介绍，中国作为2026年亚太经合组织东道主，2月1日至10日在广州 举办APEC第一次高官会及相关会议，这也是APEC"中国年"首场正式活动。本次会议将聚焦2026年 APEC会议主题"建设亚太共同体，促进共同繁荣"和三大优先领域"开放、创新、合作"，全面启动各领 域各机制合作，深入讨论具体合作，为11月领导人非正式会议积累成果。 2月1日，APEC高官会日程满满，重点讨论科技创新、监管协调、卫生工作和数据隐私等话题。谈及科 技创新话题，菲律宾科技部助理部长Napoleon Kilates Juanillo Jr在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表 示，在今天的会议上，各APEC经济体探讨了开放科学以及跨国科学家交流合作的相关议题，也探讨了 科技创新领域的潜在合作方向，各方在这些发展方向上的看法高度一致、达成了共识，"菲律宾作为正 式参与方，对科技创新政 ...

Group 1 - In January, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, indicating a decline in economic sentiment [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a decrease in overall economic activity [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index also dropped to 49.8%, showing a general downturn in economic conditions [1] Group 2 - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, as many industries enter a traditional off-peak period in January [2] - The PMI index is affected by a high base effect from December 2025, which saw a significant increase, thus impacting January's figures [2] - Weak internal investment and consumption demand, along with high external uncertainties, are major factors dragging down the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3 - The raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, while the factory price index increased to 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index exceeded the critical point [3] - The difference between the raw material purchase price index and the factory price index indicates a transfer of profits upstream [3] - Recent structural policies aimed at supporting small and medium enterprises and technology firms are expected to take time to positively impact the manufacturing sector [3] Group 4 - The non-manufacturing business activity index's decline is influenced by the downturn in industries such as construction, with the index falling to 49.4% [4] - The real estate sector's business activity index dropped below 40.0%, indicating a weak overall sentiment in that industry [4] - Financial services and capital market services showed higher activity levels, with indices above 65.0%, reflecting a more active market [4] Group 5 - The overall macroeconomic sentiment is declining due to seasonal fluctuations, high previous month bases, and insufficient effective demand from the real estate market [5] - The manufacturing production index is expected to decline significantly in February due to the extended Spring Festival holiday [5] - Future manufacturing sentiment will be influenced by export growth, real estate market trends, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the economic performance and competitive dynamics between Zhengzhou and Fuzhou, highlighting Zhengzhou's GDP of 15,282.6 billion yuan and Fuzhou's GDP of 15,112.32 billion yuan for 2025, with growth rates of 5.7% and 5.6% respectively [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Comparison - Zhengzhou's GDP for 2025 is reported at 15,295.8 billion yuan, slightly ahead of Fuzhou by 183.48 billion yuan, but Fuzhou shows a faster growth rate of 5.6% compared to Zhengzhou's 5.3% [5]. - In the fourth quarter, Fuzhou's GDP reached approximately 5,107.32 billion yuan, significantly outpacing Zhengzhou's 4,106 billion yuan, indicating a strong end-of-year performance for Fuzhou [5][6]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Zhengzhou's advantages include being a national central city, a comprehensive transportation hub, and a cluster for advanced manufacturing, while Fuzhou excels in marine economy, digital economy, and private sector activity [6][7]. - Fuzhou's service sector is more robust, with a tertiary industry proportion of 58.96%, compared to Zhengzhou's 52% [6][18]. Group 3: Strategic Directions for Zhengzhou - Zhengzhou aims to enhance its manufacturing sector by focusing on advanced manufacturing and addressing Fuzhou's strengths in marine and new energy industries [7][9]. - The city plans to develop a comprehensive transportation hub integrating air, rail, and logistics to enhance its economic reach and competitiveness [12][13]. Group 4: Service Sector and Innovation - To address its service sector shortfall, Zhengzhou will focus on high-end services and traditional service quality improvements, targeting a financial sector value of over 1,000 billion yuan by 2026 [16][18]. - The city intends to boost its innovation capabilities by increasing R&D intensity and fostering high-tech enterprises, aiming for a R&D investment intensity of 3.2% by 2026 [21][24]. Group 5: Regional Collaboration - Zhengzhou seeks to leverage its urban agglomeration by enhancing collaboration within the Central Plains urban cluster, aiming for a GDP of over 42,000 billion yuan by 2026 [26][28]. - The strategy includes attracting industries from the eastern regions and utilizing its population advantage to counterbalance Fuzhou's coastal economic strengths [25][29]. Group 6: Future Goals - By 2026, Zhengzhou aims to surpass Fuzhou by over 500 billion yuan in GDP, with a growth rate exceeding 6% and an advanced manufacturing value exceeding 7,000 billion yuan [30][31]. - Long-term goals include achieving a GDP of over 20,000 billion yuan by 2030, establishing a competitive edge through a combination of advanced manufacturing, hub economy, and innovative services [31][32].