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股市调整债市震荡,大中盘风格、平衡和价值风格基金表现相对占优,固收基金涨跌互现
Morningstar晨星· 2025-04-09 11:00
01 市场洞察 宏观经济总体平稳,股债震荡分化 3月,国内宏观经济延续企稳态势,反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得50.5,在2月份50.2的基础上回升0.3,连续两个月位于扩张区 间。制造业的景气水平回升主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数和原料库存指数环比上行所带来的影响。2月份CPI同比下降0.7%,PPI同比 下降2.2%。相比于1月份CPI和PPI同比分别上涨0.5%和下降2.3%而言,CPI在2月份同比下降主要是受到食品价格和服务价格下降的影 响;生产资料价格和生活资料价格的降幅缩小,使得PPI同比降幅收窄。 2025.03 晨 星 月 报 月初,政府工作报告中首次将"稳住楼市股市"写入2025年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向中,体现了国家对股市的高度重视,有助于 稳定市场预期、提振投资者信心。不仅如此,两会提出的深化资本市场改革和大力推动中长期资金入市等一系列利好股市的举措,叠加对 消费和科技发展的大力支持,推动权益市场整体表现强势。中旬以来,科技成长板块止盈情绪显现,加之特朗普关税政策落地的临近使得 市场风险偏好受到压制,带动股市进入调整。从投资侧来看,主要股指在3月涨跌互现,其中上证指数和深证 ...
宝城期货资讯早班车-2025-04-01
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-01 03:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, and the macro - economy in the second quarter is expected to achieve "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality" [2] - The situation is becoming more favorable for the bond market, which is expected to strengthen with fluctuations. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to drop to around 1.7%, and may decline further if the expectation of interest - rate cuts strengthens [25] - After the "tariff storm" settles in early April, A - shares are expected to rebound, Hong Kong stocks to consolidate, and U.S. stocks to recover [28] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In Q4 2024, GDP at constant prices had a year - on - year growth of 5.4%, up from 4.6% in the previous quarter [1] - In March 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points [1][2][14] - In February 2025, social financing scale increment was 70546 billion yuan, M0 year - on - year growth was 9.7%, M1 was 0.1%, and M2 was 7.0% [1] - In February 2025, CPI year - on - year was - 0.7%, PPI was - 2.2%, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative year - on - year growth was 4.1%, and social consumer goods retail sales cumulative year - on - year growth was 4.0% [1] - In February 2025, export value year - on - year was - 3.0%, and import value year - on - year was 1.5% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, and the macro - economy in Q2 is expected to achieve "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality" [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures after the Qingming Festival [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted trading margins and price limits for rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and glass futures from April 2 [3] - Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted intraday flat - today trading fees for tin futures contracts from April 1 night session [3] - Four insurance institutions have started gold trading, aiming for long - term and stable asset appreciation [3] - On March 31, 39 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 23 had negative basis [3] - Trump may impose a 20% special tariff on all imports, causing the Asia - Pacific stock markets to slump [4] - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% and lowered the 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, expecting three Fed rate cuts this year [4] 3.2.2 Metals - On March 31, spot gold and COMEX gold futures hit record highs [5] - On March 31, domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 74000 yuan/ton, hitting a more than 4 - month low [5] - As of March 31, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.15% to 933.38 tons [5] - As of March 28, zinc, aluminum, copper inventories hit new lows, while lead inventory increased, and nickel inventory decreased [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In March, China's steel industry PMI was 46%, up 0.9 percentage points month - on - month, but still in the contraction range. April's steel market demand is expected to pick up [6] - In March, the black - commodity sector declined, with coking coal futures hitting a new low since 2017 [6][7] - The U.S. proposed a new mineral agreement with Ukraine, and Trump warned Zelensky if Ukraine withdraws [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices continued to rise due to concerns about Russian and Iranian oil supplies [8] - Saudi Aramco kept its April LPG official selling prices stable, while Sonatrach lowered its prices by 2 - 7% [8] - In January 2025, U.S. crude oil production dropped to the lowest since February 2024, and oil product supply reached the highest since October 2024 [8] - U.S. LNG production, gasoline demand, and some export volumes decreased in January 2025, while crude oil export volume increased [9] - U.S. natural gas production in some regions decreased in January 2025, and total oil demand increased by 5.9% year - on - year [9][10] - Tokyo Gas will acquire a stake in a Texas shale from Chevron [11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean inventory in Q1 was 1.91 billion bushels [12] - U.S. export inspection volumes for soybeans, wheat, and corn were 793250 tons, 435644 tons, and 1614406 tons respectively [12] - Arabica coffee futures prices rose about 18% in the first three months due to concerns about drought in Brazil [12] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 31, the central bank conducted 1667 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.5%, with a net investment of 317 billion yuan [13] - In March, the central bank conducted 8000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1000 billion yuan, and suspended Treasury bond trading for three consecutive months [13] 3.3.2 Key News - China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, and the Q2 macro - economy is expected to achieve "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality" [2][14][15] - China will take measures to reduce corporate burdens [15] - The Ministry of Finance announced the Q2 2025 Treasury bond issuance plan, including a 30 - year Treasury bond and a special Treasury bond for central financial institution capital injection [15] - The plan for issuing special Treasury bonds for state - owned banks' capital injection was released, with a total of 5000 billion yuan in 5 - year and 7 - year terms [16] - In Q1 2025, 1227 corporate bonds were issued on the exchange bond market, with a total issuance of 8705.19 billion yuan [16] - Guangzhou released its 2025 housing development plan, including planned pre - sale areas and land supply [16] - In March, Guangzhou's second - hand housing transactions increased significantly [17] - Nanjing and Gansu introduced real - estate and housing - provident - fund policies respectively [18] - From January to March, TOP100 real - estate developers' sales decreased year - on - year, but core cities' transactions are expected to recover [18] - The Bank of Japan will reduce its purchase of 10 - 25 - year Treasury bonds in Q2 [18] - Some companies had bond - related events, such as Shanghai Shimao's debt default and several bonds' full redemptions [19] - Moody's adjusted ratings for some companies and commented on the impact of U.S. tariffs on some countries [19] 3.3.3 Bond Market - At the end of the quarter, tight funds pressured short - term bonds, while long - term bonds performed relatively well [20] - Convertible bond indexes declined, with some bonds rising and others falling [20][21] - Most real - estate bonds on the exchange market declined, and some bond indexes showed different trends [21] - Money - market interest rates mostly rose, and Shibor short - end rates showed mixed trends [21][22] - Bank - to - bank and other repurchase rates had different changes, and some agricultural - development bank bonds were issued [22] - European and U.S. bond yields showed different trends [23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, while the central parity rate was depreciated [24] - The U.S. dollar index rose, and most non - U.S. currencies fell [24] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income believes the market is in a wait - and - see period, and a defensive strategy should be adopted for convertible bonds [25] - Guosheng Fixed - Income believes the bond market will strengthen with fluctuations, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may decline [25] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On April 1, 109 bonds were listed, 61 were issued, 55 were due for payment, and 186 had principal and interest payments [26][27] 3.4 Stock Market - On Monday, A - shares closed down, with the chemical, photovoltaic, and robot sectors leading the decline, while gold and bank stocks rose [28] - On Monday, Hong Kong stocks continued to fall, but south - bound funds had net purchases [28] - The news of shortening A - share trading hours by 30 minutes is false [28] - The CSRC emphasized providing a better regulatory environment for overseas - listed enterprises [28] - As of the end of March, 120 A + H listed companies proposed dividend plans, with a total of 1.2 trillion yuan in dividends for 2024 [29] - Ping An Life increased its holdings in China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China H - shares [30] - Xiaomi completed a share placement, raising about 42.5 billion Hong Kong dollars [30] - Chen Hang will return to DingTalk as CEO [30]
罗志恒:如何理解1-2月经济数据“开门红”?丨宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-03-19 10:11
以下文章来源于持志以恒2020 ,作者罗志恒 持志以恒2020 . 思索天地自然、社会与人心……在这里,追求自由与思想。 文/ 粤开证券研究院副院长、首席宏观研究员 罗志恒 今年以来中国经济总体延续去年926政治局会议以来的恢复态势,1- 2月 经济数据"开门红",工业和服务业、消费和投资同比增速均高于去年全年 增速。一季度GDP同比或达5.5%左右,为实现全年" 5%左右"的增速目标 奠定良好基础。 经济数据"开门红"的三大动能 今年以来中国经济总体延续去年926政治局会议以来的恢复态势,生产供给稳定增长、消费投资稳中有 升,为一季度经济开局奠定良好基础。1-2月经济数据"开门红",一季度GDP同比或达5.5%左右。生产 方面,1-2月规模以上工业增加值和服务业生产指数同比分别增长5.9%和5.6%,较去年全年分别加快0.1 和0.4个百分点;需求方面,社会消费品零售总额和固定资产投资完成额同比分别增长4%和4.1%,较去 年全年分别加快0.5和0.9个百分点。 值得注意的是,今年1-2月经济数据受到两大不利因素拖累,在这样的背景下,当前成绩更显不易。一 是工作日减少带来的不可比因素,受闰年和平年、元旦和春 ...
宏观经济高频数据统计周报2025.3.10-2025.3.16-2025-03-17
Zhe Shang Guo Ji Jin Rong Kong Gu· 2025-03-17 15:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The production sector shows an overall improvement compared to the same period last year, with various operational rates indicating a positive trend [11]. - The consumption sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in box office revenues post-Spring Festival, while passenger car sales remain at a high level [17]. - The real estate and infrastructure sector is witnessing a high level of second-hand housing sales, indicating strong market activity [20]. - Recent data shows a significant recovery in infrastructure-related high-frequency data following the resumption of work after the holiday [22]. - The import and export sector indicates a divergence between domestic and international freight rates [26]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a weakening trend in agricultural and pork prices, while Producer Price Index (PPI) reflects a rebound in domestic and international commodity prices [30][32]. - The transportation sector is experiencing a seasonal increase in subway ridership in major cities post-holiday, while flight operations show a seasonal decline [36][38]. Summary by Sections Production - The operational rates for various sectors, including steel and tire production, are showing positive trends compared to previous periods [11][13]. Consumption - The box office revenue has decreased significantly, with a drop of 33.5 million yuan, while passenger car sales remain robust [17]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities increased to 167.74 million square meters, up from 149.91 million square meters, reflecting a 17.83% increase [20]. - The land premium rate in 100 major cities rose to 22.59%, up from 8.75%, indicating increased competition for land [22]. Import and Export - The Shanghai export container freight index decreased to 1,319.34, down from 1,436.30, while the Baltic Dry Index increased to 1,669.00, up from 1,400.00 [26]. Price Inflation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.79 yuan per kilogram, slightly down from 20.81 yuan, while the agricultural product wholesale price index shows minimal change [30]. Transportation - Subway ridership in Beijing decreased to 755.48 million trips, while Guangzhou saw an increase to 941.91 million trips, indicating varied recovery rates across cities [36][38].
中国宏观经济2025年3月报:经济修复步伐略有加快 宏观焦点转向政策
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-03-03 09:18
中国宏观经济2025年3月报 投资咨询业务资格:京证监许可【2012】75号 经济修复步伐略有加快 宏观焦点转向政策 方正中期研究院 宏观金融与航运团队 李彦森 F3050205(从业) Z0013871(投资咨询) 2025年2月28日 www.founderfu.com CONTENT 目录 第一部分 经济基本面与宏观供需 第二部分 价格水平变动情况 第三部分 货币与财政政策 第四部分 汇率与商品市场波动 2 基本面与宏观供需——主要观点 年初以来国内经济基本延续去年四季度的修复趋势,且春节假期后修复速度略有加快。其中消费增长略超预期,投资暂 时变动不大,出口则维持一定韧性。当前公布的1、2月经济数据不多,我们本期更多从高频数据角度观察经济。 产出方面,春节前后受到假期影响,主要工业品生产以及建筑业生产放缓,但服务业产出增长明显。对于制造业,发电 量、汽车轮胎开工等基本稳定。我们认为短期来看库存周期暂时处于加库存阶段,政策影响依然巨大,且外需带动也没 有减弱。但今年仍面临库存周期回落的潜在影响,这也将是经济持续面临的内生风险。 需求方面,外需有望维持任性,从高频和领先数据看,半导体等高端制造业出口仍存在继 ...
野村首席观点 | 野村中国首席经济学家陆挺最新研究观点
野村集团· 2025-02-28 08:31
近期,野村中国首席经济学家陆挺就中国宏观经济及相关政策发表最新研究观点,主要观点摘录如下。 国家发改委已明确表示,2025年消费品以旧换新计划的资金数额将大大高于2024年,并将于3月初的全国 两会上进行公布。为促进该计划在3月前继续实施和扩大,政府已下达2025年首批消费品以旧换新资金 810亿元。得益于该笔资金支持,消费电子产品销量在春节假期期间实现激增,国家发改委数据显示,手 机销售收入同比大幅增长182%。2024年,政府从1万亿元人民币的超长期特别国债中,统筹安排1500亿元 人民币支持消费品以旧换新计划。2025年,我们预计政府将从1.3万亿元人民币的超长期特别国债中安排 2000亿元人民币资金,加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新计划。 得益于2024年9月24日以来政府推出的一系列宽松政策措施,中国房地产市场再次呈现出企稳态势。一度 严重负增长的新房销售同比增速在近期出现反弹,降幅收窄接近零。部分一线城市的现房价格出现了自 2021年年中以来的最大涨幅。不过我们认为这种企稳仅限于一线城市,一些自我延续的下行螺旋仍然存 在,目前还没有出现明显的持续复苏迹象。 陆挺 野村中国首席经济学家 十 ...