Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Wells Fargo economists predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will rise by 0.2% after a surprising decline of 0.1% in March, leading to an annual CPI rate of 2.3%, the lowest in four years [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and emphasizes the need to observe the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - UBS Wealth Management highlights that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could significantly damage the dollar's safe-haven status, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting in the current environment [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Analysts at Societe Generale note a trend of investors shifting from U.S. assets to European assets, although this transition may take time to fully materialize [4] - Bank of America indicates that the recent surge in interest in European markets does not necessarily signal a structural shift, as many institutional investors remain cautious about large-scale capital transfers from the U.S. [5] - Citic Securities maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodities market, citing OPEC+'s unexpected production increase as a factor that may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [6][5] Group 3: Commodity Price Forecasts - KPMG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of the year down from $70 to $60 per barrel, reflecting improved global oil supply conditions [6] - Barclays has postponed its forecast for the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike to January 2026, adjusting its final rate prediction down to 1.00% [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Galaxy Securities reports a significant increase in global gold ETF inflows in Q1 2025, with net purchases by central banks remaining strong, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [8] - The automotive market in China is expected to see a rebound in sales, driven by the release of new models and the end of consumer hesitation following the Shanghai Auto Show [8]

智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示，在贸易政策的方向更加确定之前，他不会急于降低借 贷成本，而贸易政策的方向必须由白宫来确定。鲍威尔和他的同事们周三维持利率不变，并在美国总统 特朗普上月宣布全面征收关税以来的首次会议上表示，通胀和失业率上升的风险已经增加。 鲍威尔说，这种情况将迫使美联储在降低借贷成本以支持就业市场和维持借贷成本以遏制物价压力之间 做出艰难选择。与此同时，他表示，关税范围和规模的不确定性——以及即将到来的贸易谈判的结果 ——将使政策制定者暂时搁置行动。周三，美联储利率制定委员会一致投票决定，将基准联邦基金利率 维持在去年12月以来的4.25%至4.5%的区间。 法国巴黎银行首席美国经济学家James Egelhof表示："在美国经济数据没有出现决定性转变的情况下， 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)似乎愿意无限期维持利率不变。FOMC正在等待确定，下一步行动是基于 经济走向衰退而降息，还是由于高通胀在经济中根深蒂固而采取更严格的政策。" New Century Advisors首席经济学家Claudia Sahm表示："我认为，总的来说，当我们观察美联储时，他 们现在的'宇宙主宰'氛围要 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，市场分析师表示，市场正在发生变化。但问题在于，引发这种波动的可能更多是特 朗普有关贸易政策的言论，而不是美联储的任何动作。部分原因可能是由于股市下跌，投资者重新将美 债视为避险资产，推动国债价格上涨。 分析师：特朗普才是此时市场震荡的背后推手 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, highlighting increasing risks related to rising unemployment and inflation [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC committee unanimously voted to keep the interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its balance sheet at the pace announced in the March meeting [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The committee noted that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased further [1] - Officials are monitoring the dual risks of high unemployment and high inflation, which they believe have both risen [1] Group 3: Trade Policy Impact - Trump's trade policies have introduced a wave of uncertainty across the economy [1] - Economists generally expect that comprehensive tariffs will lead to higher inflation and hinder economic growth, creating a conflict between the goals of price stability and maximum employment [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, rubber prices rose significantly, with a large increase in open interest and net inflow of funds. The rise was mainly due to the oversold rebound after the previous sharp decline and the return of funds after the holiday. Currently, the rubber fundamentals lack obvious drivers. The supply side is entering the tapping season, but Thai raw material prices remain high due to rainfall and slow tapping. The demand side saw a significant drop in the operating rate of downstream tire factories during the holiday. As of April 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.74 percentage points. As of April 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 135.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 million tons, a decline of 1.1%. Considering the uncertainty of global trade policies and the instability of domestic stockpiling events, it is recommended to reduce the risk exposure in the short term and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price - RU主力: from 14815 to 14555, up 270; NR主力: from 12285 to 12555; BR主力: from 11080 to 11315, up 3.5; Tocom RSS3 (yen/kg): from 292.2 to 295.7; Sicom TF (cents/kg): from 167.8 to 164.8, down 10 [3]. Futures Spread - RU2509 - RU2505: from 205 to 195; RU2601 - RU2509: from 745 to 740; NR主力 - 次主力: from 65 to 45; BR主力 - 次主力: from 75 to - 160; RU - NR: from 2270 to 2260; RU - BR: from 3500 to 3475; NR - BR: from 1240 to 1205; RU - Tocom RSS3 ($): up 33; NR - Sicom TF ($): up 18 [3]. Raw Material Price - 烟片胶: from 70.71 to 71.41, up 0.70; 胶水: from 59.25 to 58.75, up 0.50; 杯胶: from 52.65 to 53.05, up 0.40; 海南胶水(浓乳): 14200 (unchanged); 海南胶水(全乳): 13100 (unchanged); 云南胶水(浓乳): from 13900 to 13800, up 100; 云南胶块(全乳): from 13800 to 13600, up 200 [3]. Spot Price - 国产9710: from 14600 to 14500, up 100; 老全乳: from 14600 to 14400, up 200; 越南3L: from 16100 to 15950, up 150; 泰混: from 14200 to 14450, up 250; 马混: from 14350 to 14100, up 250; 泰标: from 12745 to 12386, up 359; 国产标二: from 14100 to 13900, up 200; 上海:黄春发散装: N/A to 11100; 上海:海南散装: N/A to 10800; 顺丁BR9000: 11600 (unchanged); 丁苯SBR1502: from 12100 to 12000, up 100; 丁苯SBR1712: from 11000 to 11050, up 50; 泰混CIF: from 1850 to 1840, up 10; 马混CIF: from 1745 to 1770, up 25; 泰标CIF: from 1840 to 1850, up 10; 马标CIF: from 1770 to 1745, up 25; 印标CIF: from 1660 to 1685, up 25 [3]. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate - 美元指数: from 99.7911 to 99.6403, up 0.151; 美元/人民币: from 7.2008 to 7.2014; 美元/日元: from 143.6860 to 143.0585, up 0.627; 美元/泰铢: from 32.9200 to 33.3550, down 0.435; SHIBOR - 隔夜: from 1.760 to 1.702, down 0.058; SHIBOR - 七天: from 1.707 to 1.762, down 0.055 [3].

4. 丹斯克：美联储料按兵不动，很有可能在6月会议上决定降息，但现阶段不太可能提前承诺降息。此 次利率决议或将再度引发特朗普的强烈不满。 5. 澳新银行：美联储料按兵不动，尽管存在贸易压力但美国经济仍相对稳健，这或让美联储对在短期内 降息保持警惕，需更多时间来评估关税调整对通胀的影响。 6. 美国银行：美联储料按兵不动，6月降息的门槛较高。美联储有信心在必要时，能够继续通过逐次会 议引导市场逐步消化取消降息预期的信号。 7. 富国银行：美联储料按兵不动，非农报告加强了美联储更长时间按兵不动的立场。预计从6月起今年 将累计降息超50个基点，但首次降息时间晚于6月的风险正在上升。 金十整理：机构前瞻美联储利率决议（一）——"按兵不动"板上钉钉，6月降息与否再生变数 1. 惠誉：美联储料按兵不动，4月非农报告展示出经济弹性而不是经济衰退，美联储将等待劳动力市场 出现真正的疲软。 2. 高盛：美联储料按兵不动，基础数据尚未显示经济严重放缓，美联储不太可能仅根据"软数据"就放松 政策，料在7月再次降息，此前预测为6月。 3. 巴克莱：美联储料按兵不动，需等待经济走势更加明朗。预计将在7月实施下一次降息，此前预测为6 月 ...

公开资料显示，斯凯奇由格林伯格（Greenberg）于1992年创立，总部位于加州曼哈顿海滩，最初在加州销售伐木靴，后来拓展成人和儿童运动鞋业务。此 后，斯凯奇进军跑步、高尔夫和足球等多个运动类别，其舒适款式的鞋类价格低于耐克和阿迪达斯等竞争对手。斯凯奇目前是全球最大的由创始人领导的消 费品公司之一。格林伯格持有价值11亿美元的斯凯奇股份。 5月5日，斯凯奇发布公告宣布，已与投资公司3G资本（3G Capital）达成收购协议。3G资本将以每股63美元收购斯凯奇全部流通股，较斯凯奇过去15天成交 量加权平均股价溢价30%。待收购完成后，3G资本预计将持有新成立公司（New LLC）约80%的股权，从而实现对斯凯奇的控股。3G资本是汉堡王母公司 RBI的控股股东，此次交易已获斯凯奇董事会批准，预计将于2025年第三季度完成。交易完成后，斯凯奇将成为一家私人控股公司。 获3G资本溢价收购 | | 斯凯奇[SKX] 2025-05-07 04:00 | | | 5PMA = | | 10PMA = 20PMA = 30PMA = | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

美联储官员们普遍强调，需要观望上个月实施的贸易政策将如何影响经济。较低的借贷成本往往对黄金 有利，因为黄金不支付利息。 周图：金价本周开盘直接反弹走强收复上周跌幅，也暗示前周的见顶形态利空压力依然出尽，布林带保 持向上延伸，5-10周均线保持向上排列，附图指标多头信号再度转强，看涨前景良好，本周目前也如期 反弹上探布林带上轨目标位置，且整体看涨趋势良好，仍将有望继续上行。 摘要周三(5月7日)国际黄金受到今日凌晨印巴局势陡然升级的影响，小幅高开至3437.49美元，但随即转 回撤走低，截至发稿金价暂报3375.94美元/盎司，跌幅1.62%，受到美联储决议公布前的短线获利了 结，以及美元指数开盘明显反弹走强的压力。但仍不改后市进一步的走强前景，故此，目前的回撤，也 是进场看涨的良好机会。 周三(5月7日)国际黄金受到今日凌晨印巴局势陡然升级的影响，小幅高开至3437.49美元，但随即转回撤 走低，截至发稿金价暂报3375.94美元/盎司，跌幅1.62%，受到美联储决议公布前的短线获利了结，以 及美元指数开盘明显反弹走强的压力。但仍不改后市进一步的走强前景，故此，目前的回撤，也是进场 看涨的良好机会。 今年以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate range of 4.25-4.50% while awaiting the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [1] Interest Rate Projections - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 8 basis points in June and 24 basis points in July, totaling a reduction of 78 basis points by the end of the year [1] - For the following year, a total reduction of 113 basis points is projected by June 2026 and 118 basis points by December 2026 [1]

市场由此对世界两大经济体达成协议充满乐观预期。不过，中方明确表示，不会为达成协议而牺牲原则 立场和国际公平。受此影响，美元对多数主要货币汇率上涨。 在南亚地区，巴基斯坦称击落五架印度战机，并俘虏多名印度士兵，以此回应印度周三早些时候发动的 军事打击。通常情况下，两个拥核邻国之间爆发战争的可能性会推动黄金价格上涨，但在当前阶段，贸 易谈判带来的乐观情绪抵消了由此产生的避险需求。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管印巴军事冲突不断升级，但中美贸易谈判传来积极信号，市场避险情绪骤减， 黄金价格随之暴跌，终结了此前连续两日的涨势。 在过去两个交易日累计飙升近6%后，现货黄金价格当日跌幅一度高达1.6%。自唐纳德·特朗普总统对中 国加征大规模关税以来，中美两国将首次展开谈判。5月7日早，中国外交部发布消息，何立峰副总理将 于5月9日—12日访问瑞士，期间将与美方牵头人美国财长贝森特举行会谈。 今年以来，受特朗普激进的贸易政策和地缘政治举措冲击，市场陷入剧烈动荡，投资者纷纷涌入黄金市 场避险，推动金价累计飙升近30%。4月，黄金价格更是触及每盎司3500美元以上的历史高位，不过在 最近几周有所回落。此外，中国市场的投机性需求以及各 ...