据报道，印度寻求保留对粮食和乳制品等敏感农产品的高额征税。 特朗普政府的90天关税暂停期已经过半，但美国同主要贸易伙伴的谈判进展有限。 其中，美印过招不断：此前美国总统特朗普率先表示"印度已承诺取消所有美国商品关税"，随后被印方 否认；特朗普又加码施压印度，表示已经告诉库克，"不会支持他在高关税国家设厂"。 作为回敬，印度方面表示计划根据世贸组织（WTO）规则对美国的相关保障措施征收报复性关税。 最新报道显示，据两位了解谈判情况的人士称，印度在与美国的谈判中提出削减杏仁等一系列商品的进 口关税，但寻求保留对粮食和乳制品等敏感农产品的高额征税。 如何看待目前扑朔迷离的谈判进展？长期研究商业谈判和贸易谈判的欧洲工商管理学院（INSEAD）院 决策科学管理实践教授法尔考（Horacio Falcao）对记者表示，外界看起来的"漫天要价"也是政治策略 的一部分，而且很多老练的谈判者在谈判桌前一些看起来有些"超纲"的举动是在给谈判对方制造不确定 性，随后即可获得谈判筹码，再收回威胁并宣布成功。 用苹果威胁印度有用吗 来自印度的还击 如前所述，印度近期罕见提议根据WTO规则对美国征收报复性关税，以应对美国作为保障措施推出 ...

本周初黄金涨势受阻，进入震荡调整阶段。此前支撑金价上行的关键因素——特朗普拟于6月1日对欧盟加征 50%关税的威胁出现转机，市场对此前贸易不确定性的担忧显著缓解。具体而言，上周末特朗普宣布将关税实 施日期延后至7月9日，而周一欧盟首席贸易代表表态称将努力在截止日前达成协议。受此影响，市场风险偏好 明显回升，推动美股于周二大幅上涨，黄金的避险需求随之减弱。后续需持续关注贸易谈判进程，同时地缘政 治局势及美联储货币政策调整亦可能对金价产生影响。翁老师提醒日内重点关注美联储会议纪要披露的相关信 息。 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大 的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有 风险，盈亏自负。 操作策略： 1.黄金建议反弹3335-3340区域做空，止损在3348，目标看3320-3290，破位持有 4小时级别图显示，目前黄金上涨动能较弱，在上探关键阻力位后遇阻回落，当前价格运行于布林带中轨与下轨 区间，布林带整体形态保持平稳，尚未出现明显开口迹象；小时图显示，黄金在回调后进入震荡整理阶段，布 林 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The easing of risk aversion demand dragged down the gold price. Yesterday, Japan considered cutting the issuance plan of long - term bonds, and consumer confidence improved more than expected, leading to a decline in precious metals [1]. - The short - term trend of gold depends on the battle for key support levels and signals from the Fed's policies. In the long run, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the surge in China's gold imports in April may provide resilience to the gold price, but short - term technical selling pressure and policy risks need to be watched out for [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - EU officials have asked major EU companies and CEOs to provide details of their investment plans in the US. After Trump revoked the threat of high - tariff on EU imports, the EU is preparing to advance trade negotiations with Washington [2]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang said in Kuala Lumpur that economic globalization is experiencing unprecedented major shocks, and it is necessary to deepen mutual trust and expand opening - up [2]. - Japan will consider cutting the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds after the sharp rise in yields to ease market concerns about the deterioration of government finances [2][3]. Price Logic - Gold prices fell yesterday, breaking through the key support of $3,300 in the afternoon. The fundamentals are a mix of long and short factors, and market sentiment is affected by trade progress and economic data differentiation [3]. - US durable goods orders in April declined more than expected, but the March data was revised up to 7.6%, and the consumer confidence index rebounded to 98.0. Trump's plan to conduct trade negotiations with the EU weakened gold's safe - haven appeal. The strengthening of the US dollar offset the potential support of the decline in US Treasury yields on the gold price [3]. Outlook - Next week, focus on the US April PCE data and the first - quarter real GDP data, and continuously monitor changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold range is [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver range is [32, 35] [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market**: The domestic commodity market is weak, and overseas trade negotiations have a fluctuating impact on market sentiment. The economic slowdown risk and its impact on the market need to be noted under the repeated trade situation. - **Copper**: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight. In the short - term, supply disruptions may cause the copper price to rise, and the futures spread may widen. In the medium - term, economic slowdown risk should be monitored [2]. - **Aluminum**: The low inventory of aluminum provides strong support, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, with the futures spread likely to widen [4]. - **Lead**: The decline in recycled lead production may deepen the downward space of lead price if the scrap price drops further [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk with the accumulation of social inventory [7]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to loosen, and the lack of significant growth in terminal orders may cause the tin price to decline [8][9]. - **Nickel**: The short - term fundamentals of nickel have slightly improved, but the overall situation is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [12]. - **Alumina**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern due to weak demand and cost support [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.19% to $9596/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78100 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 2575 to 162150 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 3.5 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: Raw material supply is tight, and the short - term supply disruption may push up the price. The reference range for SHFE copper is 77600 - 78600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is $9500 - 9700/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.69% to $2483/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20180 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 5.7 million tons, and the three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly by 0.1 to 41.4 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: Low inventory supports the price, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 20000 - 20300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is $2440 - 2500/ton [4]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.15% to 16818 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1983.5/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 3.73 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 4.01 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: The decline in recycled lead production may lead to a further decline in lead price [5]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.51% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2691.5/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.18 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 7.88 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: The supply of zinc concentrate is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk [7]. Tin - **Price**: Tin price oscillated narrowly. - **Inventory**: SMM three - place inventory increased by 374 to 10333 tons. - **Supply - demand**: The supply and demand of tin are both weak. The supply is expected to loosen, and the lack of order growth may cause the price to decline. The reference range for domestic tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $31000 - 33000/ton [8][9]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel price oscillated weakly. - **Supply - demand**: The supply of refined nickel is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the overall situation is bearish. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel is $14500 - 16500/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC index rose 0.34%, and the LC2507 contract rose 1.36%. - **Supply - demand**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly. The reference range for the LC2507 contract is 60220 - 61620 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 1.34% to 3015 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.69 to 14.35 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: The over - capacity pattern remains unchanged, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12855 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased by 4510 to 134611 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.85% to 111.77 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: The market is expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern due to weak demand and cost support [16].

美股全线爆发。 欧美谈判利好引爆美股市场，美东时间周二，美股三大指数集体大幅收涨，道指大涨超740点，纳指、标普500 指数均涨超2%。美股大型科技股全线走强，特斯拉大涨近7%。 分析认为，美股市场全线爆发的主要原因是，贸易紧张局势出现了缓和迹象，欧美将加快贸易谈判进程，重燃 了市场乐观情绪，VIX恐慌指数隔夜大跌超7%。另外，美国总统特朗普周二表示，对欧盟加快贸易谈判进程 感到鼓舞。 与此同时，美国5月消费者信心指数大幅反弹，这也提振了美股市场信心。据最新发布的报告，美国5月消费者 信心指数上升12.3点至98，大幅高于预期的87，这是自去年11月以来的首次月度增长，也是自2021年3月以来 的最大月度增幅。 美股全线大涨 美东时间5月27日，美股三大指数全线爆发，截至收盘，道指大涨超740点，涨幅达1.78%；纳指大涨2.47%， 标普500指数涨2.05%。 美股大型科技股集体大涨，截至收盘，美国科技股七巨头（Magnificent 7）指数涨2.93%，费城半导体指数涨 3.38%。其中，英伟达涨3.21%，博通涨3.03%，谷歌A涨2.63%，苹果涨2.53%，亚马逊涨2.5%，Meta涨 2.43 ...

Group 1 - French President Macron and German Chancellor Merz both expressed concerns regarding US tariff policies and emphasized the need for fair competition in trade negotiations with the US [4][9] - Macron stated that the EU aims to establish a peaceful investment and trade framework with the US, advocating for lower tariffs to enhance productive trade [4] - The EU has initiated or advanced trade negotiations with countries like Mexico, Malaysia, India, and South Africa, indicating a strategy to diversify trade markets beyond the US [5] Group 2 - The EU's stance has become firmer, with officials indicating that they will not accept an unfair trade agreement, contrasting with US expectations [4][5] - Merz highlighted that US tech companies currently enjoy significant protection in the EU, suggesting a potential shift in this dynamic [9] - The EU has proposed a countermeasure list against US tariffs valued at €95 billion, targeting American products such as cars, civilian aircraft, and bourbon whiskey, indicating a strategic approach to exert pressure on the US [9]

Group 1 - The US President Trump has decided to abandon the threat of imposing a 50% tariff on EU imports starting next month, which led to a temporary drop in gold prices to around $3323, but buying support and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine helped gold prices recover, closing at $3337.93 per ounce on Monday [1] - On Tuesday morning, spot gold showed slight gains, trading around $3340.70 per ounce [2] - The US dollar index fell to 98.55 on Monday, marking a new low since April 29, which also provided support for gold prices [4] Group 2 - The trade negotiation window between the US and EU is set to last until July 9, with EU Commission President von der Leyen indicating a willingness to act swiftly and decisively in negotiations, contingent on Trump returning to the original 90-day negotiation period [6] - ECB President Lagarde stated that Trump's erratic policies present a unique opportunity to strengthen the euro's international status, suggesting that European decision-makers are looking to leverage the situation to enhance the euro's position [7] - A recent study by the German Economic Institute indicates that Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to a cumulative loss of €200 billion for the German economy from 2025 to 2028, potentially increasing to €250 billion if the EU implements reciprocal measures [8]

Group 1 - The EU is accelerating trade negotiations with the US, focusing on key industries and addressing tariff and non-tariff barriers [1] - EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič will lead political negotiations in sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and civil aviation [1] - The EU submitted a proposal to the US to enhance cooperation in the aforementioned sectors, which are either affected by US tariffs or are potential targets for future tariffs [1] Group 2 - The EU's proposal to lower tariffs and collaborate on global challenges was rejected by the US, prompting threats of increased tariffs from President Trump [2] - Ongoing negotiations have faced challenges, with unclear US demands and accusations of unfair targeting of US companies by the EU [5] - The EU has approved tariffs on US goods worth €21 billion (approximately $23.8 billion) in response to US tariffs on metal products, with additional tariffs on $95 billion worth of US products planned [5] Group 3 - Some EU member states are urging the EU to prepare for potential further actions from President Trump, particularly in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors [6] - German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil expressed the need for a quick resolution and maintained cautious optimism about reaching an agreement [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both gold and silver, and suggests going long on the gold-silver ratio at low levels and selling put options [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The passage of Trump's "Beautiful Big Bill" has raised concerns about US government debt, and the relatively poor long-term US Treasury bond auctions and reports of the Fed's potential bond-buying plan have supported the price of gold. Silver also maintains a relatively strong trend as gold prices rise, but there are doubts about the performance of the photovoltaic sector in the second half of the year [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The fourth round of Japan-US tariff negotiations is scheduled for the 30th, and the Japanese government plans to use 900 billion yen in national funds to mitigate the impact of US tariffs. The EU's "zero-tariff for zero-tariff" proposal is still on the table, and the EU plans to accelerate negotiations with the US. Trump Media & Technology Group plans to raise about $3 billion for cryptocurrency investments. Geopolitical tensions include preparations to strike Israel and a refusal to halt uranium enrichment. Western countries have removed the range limit on weapons aid to Ukraine [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Gold futures main contract opened at 785.00 yuan/gram and closed at 777.30 yuan/gram, down 0.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 296,331 lots, and the open interest was 216,132 lots. The night session closed at 779.72 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver futures main contract opened at 8,251 yuan/kg and closed at 8,280 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 687,113 lots, and the open interest was 371,701 lots. The night session closed at 8,294 yuan/kg, up 0.29% from the afternoon session [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 26, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.51%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.51%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 23 lots, and the number of short positions increased by 243 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 539,548 lots, down 4.97% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the number of long positions was 136 lots, and the number of short positions increased by 171 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 925,933 lots, down 9.09% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position remained unchanged at 922.46 tons, and the silver ETF position remained unchanged at 14,217.50 tons compared to the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 26, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -3.76 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -474.18 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 93.88, down 0.56% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 100.67, up 0.51% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On May 26, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 61,062 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 325,264 kg, down 12.69% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 89,820 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 770 yuan/gram and 775 yuan/gram. Silver: It is also recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 7,950 yuan/kg and 8,000 yuan/kg. Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio at low levels. Options: Sell put options [8]

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