Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights ongoing trade negotiations between India and the United States, with significant disagreements in sectors such as automobiles, steel, and agriculture, as the deadline approaches [1][2][4] - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on certain American products in response to the U.S. tariffs on Indian automotive imports, indicating a strong stance from Indian officials [4][6] - The Indian government emphasizes that any trade agreement must be mutually beneficial and prioritize national interests over merely meeting deadlines [6] Group 2 - The U.S. has requested India to open its agricultural market, particularly for genetically modified crops, but India has resisted this due to concerns over food security and rural livelihoods [2][4] - The Indian delegation, led by Chief Negotiator Rajesh Aggarwal, has returned from Washington after discussions, with unresolved issues remaining in the automotive and agricultural sectors [2] - India has communicated to the World Trade Organization its intention to impose retaliatory tariffs, asserting that U.S. tariff actions violate WTO rules and significantly impact bilateral trade [4]

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普表示，美国正准备设定最高达70%的单边关税税率，该税率将于8 月1日生效，此举在推迟征税的同时向全球贸易谈判施压。欧盟将在周末与美国举行关键会谈，力争达 成临时贸易协议以避免更高额关税。 知情人士称，欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会官员周五向成员国透露，他们已接近与美国达成潜在协议的框 架，该框架将维持目前对多数欧洲进口商品10%的关税。欧盟官员上周在华盛顿举行了谈判，正赶在7 月9日前达成协议——特朗普此前威胁届时将欧盟进口商品关税提高至50%。目前谈判仍处于动态变化 中，协议细节可能调整，最终能否达成也未可知。 特朗普称美国准备通知多个贸易伙伴，进口关税将介于"60%至70%到10%和20%之间"。由于美国市场 因独立日休市，全球投资者陷入防御状态。 欧盟委员会发言人周五表示，欧盟希望与美国通过谈判解决问题，并在独立日前于华盛顿举行的最后一 轮谈判中，就原则性协议取得进展。该发言人称，在与欧盟成员国讨论贸易谈判状况后，委员会将在周 末与美国重新接触，讨论潜在协议的实质内容。"与此同时，我们也在为可能无法达成满意协议做准 备，欧盟已准备好针对美国的反制关税。" 特朗普表示，这些通知将 ...

Group 1: Global Gold Market - In May, global central banks net purchased 20 tons of gold, which is close to but still below the 12-month average of 27 tons [6] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may enhance the strategic appeal of gold for central banks, as countries seek to bolster their gold reserves to mitigate geopolitical shocks [6] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks expect their official gold reserves to continue growing, up from 81% last year, with a record 43% of central bank officials planning to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6] Group 2: Oil Market - On July 4, international oil prices fell across the board, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down 0.75% to $66.5 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 0.42% to $68.51 per barrel [2] - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 270,000 barrels per day in June compared to May, reaching 27.02 million barrels per day, raising concerns about oversupply in the market [2] - Barclays raised its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast to $72 per barrel, indicating an improved demand outlook [3] Group 3: Precious Metals - On July 4, international precious metal futures saw slight gains, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.11% to $3346.5 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 1.79% [4] - COMEX silver futures also rose by 0.14% to $37.135 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.1% [5] - Factors driving the rise in gold prices include a decline in the US dollar index, concerns over the US fiscal deficit, geopolitical risk premiums, technical corrections, and capital flows [5]

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a decline on July 5, with Bitcoin dropping over 1%, Ethereum nearly 3%, Solana over 3%, and Dogecoin over 5% [2][3]. - The total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached approximately $219 million, with nearly 90,000 individuals liquidated in the past 24 hours [5][6]. Price Changes and Market Data - Bitcoin (BTC) price decreased by 1.34% to $549.7 billion, Ethereum (ETH) fell by 2.98% to $230.8 billion, and Dogecoin (DOGE) saw a significant drop of 5.34% to $11.1 billion [3]. - The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance-BTC, valued at $272,000 [5]. U.S. Economic Developments - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.22%, closing at 96.965, while major European stock indices also saw declines [7]. - President Trump signed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which is expected to increase the U.S. deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade [8][9]. Trade Relations and Tariffs - The EU's second round of countermeasures against the U.S. has been reduced from €95 billion to €72 billion, amid ongoing trade negotiations [10]. - India announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports [12].

市场消息：随着欧盟与美国的贸易谈判接近尾声，汽车制造商寻求抵消关税。 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is expected to slightly decline this week, having dropped over 10% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [1] - Spot gold has risen significantly, gaining over $100 per ounce, driven by a weaker dollar, increased expectations for Fed rate cuts, trade negotiation uncertainties, and concerns over fiscal risks from the "Big and Beautiful" plan [1] - The euro has appreciated nearly 14% this year, reaching a high of 1.1830 this week, as investors seek safety in European assets amid US policy fluctuations [1] Economic and Policy Developments - Goldman Sachs has moved its expectation for the Fed to restart rate cuts from December to September, predicting three consecutive cuts totaling 75 basis points [5] - Morgan Stanley reports that US tariff revenues are annualized at $327 billion, which is detrimental to economic growth, advising investors to favor US Treasuries and short the dollar [5] - The US non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%, leading to reduced bets on a July rate cut [6] Trade and Tariff Updates - President Trump announced unilateral tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% on trade partners, effective August 1, which is higher than previously proposed rates [8] - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, allowing US goods to enter Vietnam at zero tariffs, while imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the US [10] Legislative Actions - The US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which is approximately $3.4 trillion in size, with supporters claiming it will benefit all income levels through tax cuts [11] - The bill is criticized by Democrats as "robbing the poor to pay the rich," with projected costs exceeding $4.5 trillion over the next decade [11] Corporate Developments - Tesla reported a 13.5% year-over-year decline in Q2 vehicle deliveries, totaling 384,122 units, yet its stock surged nearly 5%, adding $48.1 billion to its market cap due to better-than-expected performance [17] - Robinhood, Bybit, and Kraken have launched stock tokenization services, allowing 24/7 trading of US stocks, marking a significant shift in the trading landscape [18][19] AI and Talent Acquisition - Apple is considering using technology from Anthropic or OpenAI for its new Siri version, indicating a potential shift from its in-house AI development [20] - Meta has hired at least eight key researchers from OpenAI, reflecting a competitive talent acquisition strategy in the AI sector [21]

Core Viewpoint - Indian trade officials emphasize that negotiations should not be time-bound and must prioritize India's interests [1] Group 1 - The focus of negotiations is on ensuring that India's benefits are at the forefront [1] - Trade discussions are framed as a continuous process rather than a deadline-driven endeavor [1]

印度贸易官员：与美国的贸易谈判正在进行中，印度代表团已返回。 ...

Core Viewpoint - India’s Trade Minister emphasizes that India consistently prioritizes its interests in trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The Indian government is committed to ensuring that its trade policies reflect national interests [1] - Trade negotiations are seen as a platform for India to assert its economic priorities [1] - The minister's statements indicate a strategic approach to international trade relations [1]

Group 1 - Swiss bank analysts predict at least one more interest rate cut in the Eurozone this year due to uncertainties in trade negotiations and economic growth risks [1] - Societe Generale strategists expect the 10-year German government bond yield to remain in the range of 2.40%-2.80% by the end of the year, with an anticipated steepening of the yield curve [1] - Monex Europe analysts warn that the British pound faces further depreciation risks as the market has not fully absorbed the fiscal risks associated with the UK [3] Group 2 - Australian economists highlight that the current US tariff policy poses a significant threat to global economic growth, with the average tariff rate rising to 20% from 3% earlier this year [2] - BlackRock maintains an optimistic outlook, suggesting that the US policy environment is gradually becoming favorable for risk assets, particularly equities and credit bonds [2] - Moody's indicates that Japan's potential large-scale tax cuts due to election pressures could negatively impact its credit rating, depending on the extent and duration of the cuts [3]