Group 1 - Trump's statement about the U.S. controlling 55% of global oil is linked to recent military actions in Venezuela, where the U.S. aims to dominate oil resource development [3] - Current OPEC data shows that Venezuela holds 19% of the world's proven oil reserves, while the U.S. only holds 3%, making Trump's claim of 55% unrealistic [3] - The combined oil production of the U.S. and Venezuela is projected to be less than 15% of global production in 2025, further questioning the feasibility of Trump's assertion [3] Group 2 - The U.S. is interested in Venezuela's oil reserves due to its significant proven reserves, and aims to control these resources through military intervention [5] - The U.S. seeks to weaken OPEC+ by disrupting its influence on global oil prices through control of Venezuelan oil [5] - The U.S. aims to reinforce the dominance of the petrodollar by linking Venezuelan oil exports to the U.S. dollar amidst a global trend of de-dollarization [5] Group 3 - The global oil supply chain may become polarized, with the U.S. potentially linking oil distribution to compliance with its policies, affecting many countries' energy strategies [7] - A low oil price cycle may be on the horizon due to increased production from the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries, alongside a slowdown in global oil demand [7] - The assertion of U.S. energy control reflects a broader strategy to reshape global energy order, raising concerns about geopolitical stability and energy security for importing nations [9]

Core Viewpoint - China is adjusting its foreign exchange asset allocation strategy in response to significant changes in the global financial landscape, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds, which were once considered a safe investment [1][3]. Group 1: Shift in Asset Allocation - China is gradually reallocating its assets towards gold, RMB-denominated assets, and diversified economies along the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on asset diversification and risk mitigation [3][5]. - The shift away from U.S. Treasury bonds is influenced by the 2022 freezing of Russian central bank assets, raising concerns about the safety of dollar-denominated assets amid potential sanctions [5][7]. - The increasing U.S. fiscal deficit and downgrading of U.S. Treasury credit ratings by international agencies have made investors wary of U.S. debt, reflecting a growing lack of confidence in the U.S. financial system [7][13]. Group 2: Internationalization of the RMB - In 2024, Saudi Arabia and China signed multiple oil trade contracts partially settled in RMB, enhancing the internationalization of the currency and providing China with more confidence to reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings [9][14]. - The number of countries participating in the RMB cross-border payment system is increasing, with RMB becoming the fifth largest global payment currency, indicating its growing international influence [14]. Group 3: Global De-dollarization Trend - The trend of de-dollarization is not unique to China, as emerging economies like India and Turkey are also accelerating their efforts to reduce reliance on the dollar by increasing gold holdings and expanding local currency settlements [15]. - Major economies, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Japan, are reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings, indicating a global shift in capital flows and a gradual move towards a multi-currency system [13][15]. - The global financial market is witnessing a mainstream trend of de-dollarization, with countries adjusting their strategies to navigate the changing financial landscape [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of over 30,000 sanctions imposed on Russia, highlighting its resilience and the emergence of a counter-sanction ecosystem that challenges U.S. economic hegemony [1][2]. Group 1: Sanctions and Economic Resilience - Russia's energy exports have reached a five-year high, with 80% of trade conducted in its own currency [1]. - The sanctions, initially thought to be crippling, have instead catalyzed the formation of a counter-system that undermines U.S. dominance [2]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Control - The U.S. maintains control over global economic flows through the dollar system, which accounts for 88% of foreign exchange transactions and prices for major commodities [3]. - Key mechanisms of U.S. control include the New York financial court's jurisdiction, SWIFT system authority, and CHIPS network control, allowing the U.S. to influence international transactions [4]. Group 3: Emergence of a Counter-System - A shadow fleet of 1,580 vessels has been established by countries like Russia and Iran to bypass sanctions, with 798 of these being oil tankers [12]. - India has become a crucial hub for energy arbitrage, refining Russian oil and selling it to Europe under Indian labels, generating billions in profits [14]. Group 4: Financial De-dollarization - The cross-border payment system (CIPS) has expanded to 189 countries, with transaction volumes reaching 90.19 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [18]. - In trade between China and Russia, over 95% is now settled in local currencies, with some months seeing this figure rise to 99.1% [19]. Group 5: The Gray System - The gray system operates by exploiting gaps in sanctions, using alternative logistics and financial channels to maintain trade [23]. - Countries like the UAE and Turkey play significant roles in facilitating trade through loopholes, while also balancing their relationships with the U.S. [27]. Group 6: Global Economic Dynamics - The global economy is evolving into a tripartite structure, with the U.S. and its allies as sanctioning powers, while countries like Russia and Iran adapt through gray systems [24]. - Arbitrageurs such as India and the UAE benefit from sanctions, but face increasing scrutiny and regulatory pressures from the U.S. [29].

Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns are driving countries to stockpile strategic materials, leading to a surge in prices for critical military metals like tungsten and cobalt due to "strong security" demand [1][2] - The shift from a "just-in-time" supply chain model to a "just-in-case" stockpiling approach is reshaping the supply-demand dynamics across various commodities, particularly energy and strategic metals [2][4] - The transition to a "hard asset" era is characterized by increased investment in commodities and defense assets, as they outperform technology stocks [1][3] Commodity Market Dynamics - Major economies are moving away from minimal commercial inventories to large-scale strategic reserves to mitigate risks from potential conflicts and supply disruptions [2][4] - Countries may have stockpiled approximately 1.4 billion barrels of oil, with plans to increase this to 2 billion barrels, significantly exceeding the international standard of 90 days [4] - Prices for tungsten and cobalt are projected to rise by 229% and 120% respectively by 2025, driven by heightened military demand [2][5] Investment Implications - Investors are advised to focus on gold as a hedge against credit risk and to consider the demand for metals driven by national security needs [3][7] - The shift in central bank strategies towards gold, with many aiming to increase gold reserves to 20%, is expected to push gold prices significantly higher [6] - The market is witnessing a transition where defense stocks and commodity ETFs are becoming attractive investment options, while technology stocks like Nvidia are underperforming [7] Central Bank Strategies - The global "de-dollarization" trend is fundamentally changing the pricing logic of gold, with central banks accelerating their shift from dollar reserves to gold [6] - A mere 1% increase in gold reserves among under-reserved central banks could potentially raise gold prices by approximately $1,000 [6] Market Trends - The current macroeconomic narrative suggests a direct investment opportunity in hard assets, with a notable shift in market focus from technology to commodities and defense-related sectors [7] - Gold mining stocks are also benefiting, with all tracked gold miners achieving record profits at current gold prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant paradigm shift in the commodity market driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns, leading to increased accumulation of strategic materials and a restructured pricing logic for gold due to "de-dollarization" [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Market Shift - Major economies are transitioning from a "just-in-time" supply chain model to a "just-in-case" accumulation strategy, focusing on building strategic reserves to mitigate risks from potential conflicts and supply disruptions [3][5]. - Countries are reportedly stockpiling significant amounts of oil, with estimates suggesting around 1.4 billion barrels, which could sustain supply for hundreds of days, exceeding the typical 90-day standard [3][6]. - Prices for critical military metals like tungsten and cobalt have surged, with projections indicating increases of 229% and 120% respectively by 2025 [3][7]. Group 2: Investment Implications - The shift in commodity dynamics suggests new investment opportunities, particularly in gold as a hedge against credit risk and in metals driven by national security demands [4][10]. - The global trend of "de-dollarization" is reshaping gold's pricing logic, with central banks aiming to increase gold reserves significantly, potentially pushing gold prices up by approximately $1,000 if certain reserve ratios are achieved [9][10]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards "hard assets," with defense stocks and commodity ETFs becoming attractive investment vehicles, as evidenced by the FTSE 100 index reaching 10,000 points, primarily driven by mining, oil, and defense sectors [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the escalation of geopolitical risks following the U.S. military operation in Venezuela, which has led to increased market volatility and a rise in gold prices [2][3] - The U.S. military's operation against Venezuelan President Maduro marks a shift in U.S. foreign policy towards a more interventionist approach in Latin America, as stated by President Trump [2] - The operation has drawn strong condemnation from countries like Russia, Iran, and Brazil, which argue it violates international law and the UN Charter [2][3] Group 2 - Following the U.S. military action, gold prices have remained elevated, with February futures reaching $4,402.29 per ounce, driven by heightened market risk aversion [3] - The World Gold Council reported that global central bank gold purchases remained robust, with a net purchase of 297 tons from early 2025 to the end of November [3] - The potential for accelerated de-dollarization and re-monetization of gold could lead to a faster long-term increase in gold prices, as central banks outside South America may increase their gold purchases [4]

一、什么是黄金的传统定价框架？ 传统意义上，黄金一般有三个定价参考： 本文核心观点： 长江宏观团队认为，传统的黄金定价模型在2022年后已经失效，其核心原因在于全球央行持续且大规模 的购金，成为金价上涨的主要动力。而央行购金的背后，是美元信用体系出现结构性裂痕、地缘政治不 确定性上升以及全球储备资产多元化的长期趋势。展望未来，这些支撑因素将持续存在，金价上涨动力 依然强劲。 1.商品属性：与通胀正相关，抗通胀功能。 2.货币属性：以美元计价，与美元指数负相关。 3.金融属性：与实际利率（如10年期美债实际利率）负相关，代表持有黄金的机会成本。 二、2022年，为什么黄金传统定价框架失效了？ 答：自2022年起，金价与实际利率的负相关关系被打破（即金融属性），甚至一度出现同向波动。这种 失效并非偶然，主要源于两方面： 1.实际利率在高通胀环境中"失真"：在高通胀时期，市场往往系统性低估长期通胀水平，导致计算出的 实际利率偏高，从而错误地指向金价应该下跌，这与事实相悖。 2.全球央行购金成为新的主导力量：这是框架失效的最关键原因。2022年以来，全球央行年度净购金量 持续超过1000吨，占全球黄金总需求的比重从约 ...

法案通过前，美国已对委内瑞拉实施经济干预，要求其与中俄等国切断能源合作。委内瑞拉石油出口的利润分配、开采权及资金流向均被美国掌控——卖油 收入存入美国指定账户，且仅能用于购买美国商品。特朗普甚至单方面宣布，委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，这些原油原本计划运往中国。 2026年1月，特朗普政府打出能源博弈的"组合拳"：通过制裁俄罗斯石油的买家、控制产油国命脉、扣押运输油轮，试图将全球能源的"水龙头"和"钱袋 子"牢牢攥在手中。 中国作为俄罗斯石油的最大进口国，首当其冲成为目标。这场博弈背后，既是美国对旧能源秩序的强势维护，也是多极化时代下霸权逻辑与自主发展权的正 面碰撞。 2026年1月8日，特朗普批准《2025年制裁俄罗斯法案》，明确要求中国、印度、巴西三国停止进口俄罗斯石油，否则将面临最高500%的关税惩罚。法案计 划于下周提交参议院表决，共和党议员林赛·格雷厄姆称其已获得跨党派支持。 俄罗斯石油出口收入的58%依赖能源贸易，其中中国占其出口总量的近一半，印度占约40%，巴西则是俄罗斯在南美的重要合作伙伴。美国此举旨在切断俄 罗斯的战争资金链，迫使普京在俄乌冲突中让步。同时，美国页岩油产量 ...

最新数据一曝光，全网都看明白了：中国央行的黄金储备直接创下历史新高！截至去年12月，我们手里 的黄金已经达到7415万盎司，折算下来差不多2306吨，更关键的是，这已经是连续14个月疯狂增持了！ 不少人纳闷，央行为啥要这么执着买黄金？这背后藏着的大棋局，说出来恐怕让美国都坐不住！ 要说 这增持的时机，那可是精准踩在节点上，正好是美国大选尘埃落定，特朗普重返白宫之际。当时大家就 预判，2025年美国的全球战略肯定要大改，果不其然，特朗普上台后又是逼着美联储降息，又是在全球 掀贸易战，国际金融市场瞬间变得波诡云谲。 这些年美国老把金融当武器，到处搞长臂管辖，不少国家都怕了，纷纷想办法摆脱对美元的依赖。而中 国要推动人民币国际化，让更多国家愿意用、敢用人民币，就必须有足够的黄金做信用背书。黄金的价 值不分国界，不管国际局势怎么变，它的硬通货属性都不会变。手里有这么多黄金，就是向世界证明： 咱们有能力稳住人民币币值，人民币国际化自然能走得更顺。 现在来看，这些风险不仅没消失，反而 越来越大。 美联储主席鲍威尔马上就要卸任了，特朗普要换自己人上台，下半年美国的金融政策大概率会更激进， 国际金融市场又要面临新的冲击。台海 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold has officially surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds to become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years, indicating a significant shift in global financial dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Gold vs. U.S. Treasury Bonds - As of the end of 2025, global central bank gold reserves are valued at $3.93 trillion, while U.S. Treasury bonds hold a value of $3.88 trillion [3]. - The last time gold held this position was in 1996, marking a long-term trend rather than a short-term fluctuation [3]. - Central banks are increasingly favoring gold over U.S. Treasury bonds, with significant purchases recorded in recent years [4][5]. Group 2: Central Bank Behavior - In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks purchased a total of 634 tons of gold, with projections suggesting annual purchases will exceed 1,000 tons for the fourth consecutive year [4]. - The People's Bank of China has also been actively increasing its gold reserves, reaching approximately 2,304 tons by the end of October 2025 [5]. - In contrast, foreign official institutions have significantly reduced their net purchases of U.S. securities, with a 94.4% decrease noted in the second quarter of 2025 [5]. Group 3: Trust and Risk Factors - The decline in trust towards U.S. Treasury bonds is attributed to concerns over U.S. financial practices, including the use of financial sanctions [7][8]. - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, raising fears of potential defaults or devaluation through monetary policy [8][9]. - The shift from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold reflects a broader trend of diminishing confidence in fiat currencies [9]. Group 4: Market Predictions - Analysts have differing views on gold's future, with some predicting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, while others caution against potential corrections due to speculative buying [10][11]. - Factors supporting gold's price increase include accelerated de-dollarization, ongoing central bank purchases, and persistent geopolitical risks [11]. - Risks to gold's valuation include high current prices, supply constraints, and potential competition from digital currencies [11]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised against over-investing in gold, with recommendations suggesting a portfolio allocation of 10%-20% [13]. - Caution is advised against using loans to purchase gold, as this could lead to significant financial losses [13]. - Legitimate investment channels for gold include bank-issued paper gold, gold ETFs, and standard gold bars, while avoiding high-yield platforms that may be fraudulent [13][14].