商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 26 日 豆粕：或跟随美豆震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4364 | +46（+1.07%） | 4378 | +21 （+0.48%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2751 | +2 （+0.07%） | 2760 | +1 （+0.04%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1067.5 | +3.5（+0.33%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 300.1 | +3.9 （+1.32%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 3085～3150， M2605+350， 持平； | 较昨-5至持平 ...

2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 3 | | 铜：铜矿扰动增加，价格走强 | 5 | | 锌：偏强运行 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：震荡偏强 | 10 | | 铝：偏强震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：底部盘整 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：上涨势头猛烈 | 13 | | 钯：警惕补涨动能 | 13 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：强现实支撑，高位震荡 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游工厂减产，盘面震荡偏强 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：产业叠加 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, MEG, short - fiber, bottle - chip, LPG, propylene, fuel - oil, low - sulfur fuel - oil: Bullish trend [2][73][74] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish but with marginal valuation pressure [2] - LLDPE, PP, glass, soda: Bearish trend [2] - Caustic soda, urea, benzene - ethylene, container shipping index (European line), PVC, offset printing paper, pure benzene: Neutral trend [2] Core Views - The prices of most energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as capital inflows, geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. For some products, capital plays a significant role in driving up prices, while for others, geopolitical risks and supply - demand imbalances are the main influencing factors [10][11][13] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Before the festival, the unilateral trend is bullish. 3 - 5 reverse spreads and 5 - 9 positive spreads are recommended. The current price increase is mainly driven by capital rather than fundamentals. The domestic and Asian device operating rates have slightly decreased, and it is in a state of inventory accumulation [10] - **PTA**: Before the festival, the unilateral trend is bullish. A 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. High processing fees may lead to the resumption of production of PTA devices. It is also in a state of inventory accumulation [11] - **MEG**: The trend remains bullish, and a 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. The device operating rate has slightly decreased, and the supply will marginally decline in the future. Although it is in an inventory - accumulation pattern, the overall trend is still bullish due to short - covering and capital inflows [12][13] Synthetic Rubber - It runs bullishly, but attention should be paid to marginal valuation pressure. The short - term strength is due to capital inflows and cost - push from butadiene. However, some valuation indicators are approaching their boundaries [14][16] LLDPE - The risk preference continues to spread, and the basis weakens significantly. Although the raw - material oil price is strong, the ethylene monomer link weakens. The supply pressure in the medium - term remains due to high production capacity and weakening demand [17][18] PP - The production scheduling remains at a low level, and the profit repair is limited. The cost end is strong, but the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [20][21] Caustic Soda - It fluctuates at a low level. Before the Spring Festival, there is pressure to reduce inventory, and the price continues to decline. The long - term contract may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [23][25] Glass - The original - sheet price is stable. The market demand is coming to an end, the rigid demand shrinks rapidly, and the inventory is under pressure. Some winter - storage and inventory - transfer policies may be introduced next month [28][29] Methanol - It fluctuates with support. The short - term is expected to be strong due to geopolitical conflicts and inventory improvement expectations. However, the over - speculation may be restricted by MTO plant maintenance and inventory de - stocking [32][35] Urea - The oscillation center moves up. Driven by the warm sentiment in the chemical sector, neutral fundamentals, and strong spring - plowing expectations, the price center slowly rises. The upper and lower bounds of the valuation are also gradually moving up [37][39] Benzene - Ethylene - It oscillates bullishly. The short - term market sentiment is high, but downstream profits are squeezed, and the inventory is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The price is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern [40][41] Soda - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda market is weakly stable, with flexible price transactions. The supply is adjusted at a high level, and the downstream demand is average [43][45] LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong. The price is affected by geopolitics and supply - demand relationships [48] - **Propylene**: The trend is bullish, but the upward momentum slows down [2] PVC - It oscillates within a range. The short - term is supported by the bullish sentiment of chemical products, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change. The short - term futures contract faces high - operation and weak - demand situations [56][57] Fuel - Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel - Oil - **Fuel - oil**: It rises strongly, and the volatility continues to increase [59] - **Low - sulfur fuel - oil**: It continues the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has fallen to a low point again [59] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in an oscillatory market. The 04 short positions should be gradually reduced and observed, and the 10 short positions can be held as appropriate [61] Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip - **Short - fiber**: The short - term trend is bullish. The futures price has risen significantly, and the spot price has been adjusted upwards [73][74] - **Bottle - chip**: The short - term trend is bullish. The upstream raw - material futures continue to rise strongly, and the factory has continuously raised the quotation [73][74] Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and see. The market price is stable, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [76][77][79] Pure Benzene - It oscillates bullishly. The inventory has decreased, and the spot price has risen [80][81]

每经AI快讯，1月26日，钯金期货突破2100美元/盎司，日内涨3.57%。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 6 | | 焦煤：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 6 | | 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，短期价格窄幅波动 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2026 年 1 月 26 日 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,142 | 18 | 0.58 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,305 | 17 | 0.52 | | | | 昨日成 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a weekly hot - spot preview from January 26 to February 1, 2026, including important economic data releases and events, and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary according to the Directory This Week's Key Focus - On January 27 at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will release China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for December 2025 and the cumulative figure from January to December [2][5]. - On January 29 at 03:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision and policy statement, with an expected unchanged federal funds rate [2][12]. - On January 29 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 [2][14]. - On January 30 at 21:30, the US Bureau of Labor will release the US PPI for December 2025 [2][21]. - On January 31 at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing will release China's official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI for January [2][22]. This Week's Hot - Spot Preview January 26 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the 2025 business work and operation situation at 15:00. Attention should be paid to its impact on relevant futures prices [3]. - The US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary monthly rate of durable goods orders for November 2025 at 21:30, with an expected rate of 0.5% (previous value: - 2.2%). A significant increase may suppress precious metal futures prices but boost other commodity futures prices [4]. January 27 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for December 2025 and the cumulative figure from January to December at 09:30. The annual rate in November 2025 was - 13.1%, and the cumulative annual rate from January to November was 0.1% [5]. - The US Conference Board will release the US consumer confidence index for January at 23:00, with an expected value of 90.1 (previous value: 89.1). A higher value may boost non - precious metal and crude oil futures prices but suppress precious metal futures prices [6]. January 28 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the high - quality development of state - owned assets and central enterprises in 2025 at 15:00. Attention should be paid to its impact on relevant futures prices [9]. - The Bank of Canada will announce the interest rate decision and monetary policy report at 22:45, and hold a press conference at 23:30. The overnight lending rate is expected to remain at 2.25% [10]. - The US EIA will release the change in crude oil inventories for the week ending January 23 at 23:30. An increase may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [11]. January 29 - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision and policy statement at 03:00, with an expected unchanged federal funds rate. Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference at 03:30. Attention should be paid to their impact on the futures market [12]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the eurozone economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index for January at 18:00, with expected values of 96.8 and - 9 respectively (previous values: 96.7 and - 9) [13]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 at 21:30, with an expected value of 205,000 (previous value: 200,000). A slight increase may slightly boost precious metal futures prices but slightly suppress non - precious metal commodity futures prices [14]. - The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the US trade balance for November 2025 at 21:30, with an expected value of - $44.9 billion (previous value: - $29.4 billion) [15]. - The US Department of Commerce will release the monthly rate of factory orders for November 2025 at 23:00, with a previous monthly rate of - 1.3% [16]. January 30 - The German Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary GDP value for the fourth quarter of 2025 at 17:00. The expected seasonally - adjusted quarterly rate is 0.2% (previous value: 0%), and the expected unadjusted annual rate is 0.3% (previous value: 0.3%) [17]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary GDP value for the fourth quarter of 2025 in the eurozone at 18:00. The expected seasonally - adjusted quarterly rate is 0.3% (previous value: 0.3%), and the expected seasonally - adjusted annual rate is 1.2% (previous value: 1.4%) [18]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the unemployment rate in the eurozone for December 2025 at 18:00, with an expected value of 6.3% (previous value: 6.3%) [19]. - The US Bureau of Labor will release the US PPI for December 2025 at 21:30. The expected monthly rate is 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%), and the expected core PPI monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value: 0%). The PPI annual rate in November 2025 was 3%, and the core PPI annual rate was 3% [21]. January 31 - The National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing will release China's official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI for January at 09:30. The expected manufacturing PMI is 50.1 (previous value: 50.1), and the expected non - manufacturing PMI is 50.5 (previous value: 50.2). A slight increase may slightly boost commodity and stock index futures prices but slightly suppress treasury bond futures prices [22]. February 1 - OPEC+ eight oil - producing countries will hold a monthly meeting on oil - production policies. Attention should be paid to the meeting results and their impact on crude oil and related futures prices [23].

截至2026年1月23日当周，沪铅期货主力合约收于17095元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周减持17474 手。 机构观点汇总： 本周（1月19日-1月23日）市场上看，沪铅期货周内开盘报17400元/吨，最高触及17410元/吨，最低下探 至17035元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-2.84%。 南华期货（603093）：基本面上，原生铅虽原料偏紧，TC维持低位，但高价刺激生产。再生铅方面， 环保限产解除与高价共同刺激再生铅冶炼。需求端，铅蓄电池开工率维稳运行，但远期看需求端缺少新 兴驱动。且终端电瓶车面临节后淡季以及新国标压制，消费转淡。库存端，LME持续去库，国内库存 大幅累库。展望未来，短期铅多空缺少驱动，铅价上下空间由再生铅生产弹性控制，区间震荡为主。 消息面回顾： 1月22日，上期所沪铅期货仓单录得27765吨，较上一交易日增长201吨；最近一周，沪铅期货仓单累计 增长1692吨，增长幅度为6.49%；最近一个月，沪铅期货仓单累计增长15256吨，增长幅度为121.96%。 1月22日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铅注册仓单187075吨。注销仓单31350吨，减少4225吨。铅库存 218425吨，减少4 ...

Market Overview - As of January 23, 2026, the main PVC futures contract closed at 4921 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline in the K-line and an increase in open interest by 48,696 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - During the week of January 19-23, the PVC futures opened at 4806 CNY/ton, reached a high of 4926 CNY/ton, and a low of 4708 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly price change of 2.07% [1] Price Trends - On January 22, the spot prices for PVC in Hangzhou stabilized, with slight increases in transaction prices. The prices for different types of PVC ranged from 4500 to 4720 CNY/ton [2] - The domestic PVC powder operating rate decreased by 1.10 percentage points to 77.98% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Yibin's 200,000-ton facility has restarted, while Wanhua's 500,000-ton facility has been affected by shutdowns, leading to little change in PVC capacity utilization [2] - The social inventory of PVC has reached a record high, following the strength of the chemical sector. However, the overall demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, with domestic operating rates rising to 80% [3] - PVC production companies are maintaining high supply levels, but domestic demand is in a traditional off-season, leading to rapid accumulation of industry inventory [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the week of January 20 - 23, 2026, US soybean futures prices rebounded slightly due to positive factors such as China - US official talks, dry weather in Argentine production areas, and a good weekly export sales report. The weekly increase of the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans was 1.07%, and that of the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal was 3.52% [1]. - In the week of January 19 - 23, 2026, domestic soybean meal futures prices rebounded and fluctuated, and soybean No.1 futures prices rose slightly. The soybean meal price increase was driven by the resolution of the China - Canada trade issue and the rise in US soybean prices. The soybean No.1 price increase was due to the stable - to - strong spot price and the improved sentiment in the soybean market. The weekly increase of the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal was 0.88%, and that of the main May 2026 contract of soybean No.1 was 0.93% [1]. - In the week of January 26 - 30, 2026, it is expected that the futures prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 will operate within a range. For soybean meal, the dry and hot weather in Argentine production areas has a positive impact, while the expected bumper harvest in Brazil limits the price rebound space. For soybean No.1, the spot price is stable, and the futures price is affected by the overall sentiment in the soybean market and policy sentiment [5]. Group 3: Summary of International Soybean Market Fundamentals - In the week of January 15, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans increased month - on - month, which is a positive factor. The weekly net sales of the current 2025/26 marketing year were about 245 million tons, and the total net sales of the current and next marketing years were about 246 million tons. The net sales to China in the current 2025/26 crop year were about 130 million tons, with a cumulative sales of about 942 million tons [1]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased slightly week - on - week, which is a positive factor. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery decreased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit decreased week - on - week [1]. - The early harvest of Brazilian soybeans has a limited impact for now. As of the week of January 15, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 2%, compared with 0.6% the previous week and 1.7% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso is leading, while that in Paraná is behind the historical average [1]. - According to the weather forecast on January 23, 2026, in the next two weeks (January 24 - February 7, 2026), the precipitation and temperature in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil are basically normal (less precipitation and slightly higher temperature in Rio Grande do Sul), and the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina is less and the temperature is higher. The dry and hot weather in Argentine production areas has a positive impact and needs continuous attention [1]. Group 4: Summary of Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - In the week of January 19 - 23, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly. The trading volume decreased week - on - week, with the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills at about 190,000 tons, compared with about 670,000 tons the previous week [2][3]. - The提货 volume increased week - on - week, with the average daily提货 volume of major oil mills at about 188,000 tons, compared with about 186,000 tons the previous week [3]. - The basis of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 347 yuan/ton, compared with about 372 yuan/ton the previous week and about 300 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the inventory of mainstream oil mills was about 840,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of about 9% and a year - on - year increase of about 68% [3]. - The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 2.1 million tons, with an operating rate of about 58%. Next week (January 24 - 30, 2026), the expected soybean crushing volume is about 2.38 million tons, with an operating rate of 65% [3]. Group 5: Summary of Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Market - In the week of January 19 - 23, 2026, the domestic soybean No.1 spot price was stable - to - strong. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some northeastern regions was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, the purchase price in some inland regions was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, and the selling price of edible soybeans in the sales areas was in the range of 4,660 - 4,840 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [4]. - The reluctance of farmers in the northeastern production areas to sell has eased, and some direct - affiliated warehouses have completed the purchase of domestic soybeans. Most traders are cautiously waiting and selling their inventories to lock in profits [4]. - There is a replenishment demand in the sales areas, and the soybean price may rise to catch up. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand side has a replenishment demand, and there is a possibility of a price increase in the market [4].

提供的链接内容中未涉及任何期货市场相关的财经信息，因此无法按照要求撰写期货市场快讯汇总。 提供的链接内容中未涉及任何期货市场相关的财经信息，因此无法按照要求撰写期货市场快讯汇总。 建议提供包含期货市场财经相关事件、数据发布及市场动态的内容链接，以便进行准确的信息筛选与汇 总。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：喜娜AI 建议提供包含期货市场财经相关事件、数据发布及市场动态的内容链接，以便进行准确的信息筛选与汇 总。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数 ...