（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月26日，钯金期货日内涨3%，现报1866美元/盎司。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides a comprehensive set of data on the lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide futures and spot markets, including price, volume, and inventory data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 123,520 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan (-0.96%) daily but up 17,360 yuan (16.35%) weekly. The trading volume was 924,823 lots, down 24,183 lots (-2.55%) daily and 89,093 lots (-8.79%) weekly, and the open interest was 607,187 lots, down 40,179 lots (-6.21%) daily and 65,524 lots (-9.74%) weekly [3]. - The closing price of the weighted - index contract was 123,776 yuan/ton, down 926 yuan (-0.74%) daily but up 17,683 yuan (16.67%) weekly. The trading volume was 1,532,681 lots, up 190,899 lots (14.23%) daily and 221,433 lots (16.89%) weekly, and the open interest was 1,072,674 lots, down 2,555 lots (-0.24%) daily but up 6,443 lots (0.60%) weekly [3]. - For different contract spreads, e.g., LC2601 - LC2605 was - 1,980 yuan/ton, with daily and weekly changes of - 20 yuan (1.02%) and - 260 yuan (15.12%) respectively [3]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 17,101 lots, unchanged daily but up 1,465 lots (9.37%) weekly [3]. 3.2 Spot Data - In the lithium ore market, the average price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 3,265 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (1.71%) daily; lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) was 6,405 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (0.87%) daily; and lithium spodumene (5 - 5.5%) was 10,590 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (0.86%) daily [18]. - In the lithium salt market, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 102,250 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan (3.44%) daily; battery - grade lithium carbonate was 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan (3.35%) daily; and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 88,430 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan (4.00%) daily [18]. - Regarding price spreads, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged daily but up 50 yuan (1.92%) weekly; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 10,620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-0.93%) daily and 950 yuan (-8.21%) weekly [22]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2601 contract varied, e.g., Shengxin Lithium Energy was - 1,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; Tianqi Lithium was - 1,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [30]. - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 17,101 lots, unchanged from the previous day. Some warehouses had no change in receipts, while Yichun Yinli decreased by 300 lots, and Shanghai Guochu decreased by 13 lots [32]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O:2.5%) showed certain trends over time, as presented in the graph [34]. - The production profit of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods also had corresponding trends over the period from December 24 to October 25 [34]. - The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, as well as the export profit of lithium hydroxide and the import profit of lithium carbonate, were also presented in graphical form, showing their trends over time [36][38].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. It also presents important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - producing regions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and relevant economic and policy news. These factors collectively influence the market trends of the commodities [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Commodity Futures**: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodity futures are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4035.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.02%. Brent March crude oil on ICE closed at 61.84, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.23% overnight [1]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their percentage changes are given. The US dollar index is at 97.95, up 0.01%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.0471, down 0.07% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE豆油 2605, and DCE豆粕 2605 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8600, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 150 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 446 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas** - **Brazil**: Weather conditions in most soybean - producing areas are generally favorable for crops, although some regions may face flood risks, and a lack of rainfall in certain areas is a concern [4]. - **Argentina**: Soil moisture in most soybean - producing areas is suitable for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4]. - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%. Indonesia's actions against illegal palm oil enterprises may disrupt production and increase global prices [6]. - **Soybeans**: Argentina's soybean sales data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are reported, along with the procurement by local oil mills and the export industry [8]. - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index decreased slightly but had the largest annual increase since 2016. Different types of ships' freight indices and daily earnings changes are provided [9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Oil and Meal**: On December 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national average oil - mill operating rate rose [11]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased. The average prices of pork and eggs also declined [11]. - **International Economic Data** - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January and March 2026 is presented [12]. - **Unemployment and Mortgage Rates**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 were 21.4 million, lower than expected. The 30 - year fixed - mortgage rate decreased [12]. - **Data Release Delay**: Due to the US federal government holiday, the release of EIA's crude oil and natural gas inventory data was postponed [12]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate**: On December 24, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, indicating RMB appreciation [14]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank carried out 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 24, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan. On December 25, it will conduct 4000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations [14]. 3.4 Fund Flows On December 24, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 205.42 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 63.14 billion yuan, with different sub - sectors having different net inflow/outflow situations. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 141.68 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 0.86 billion yuan [17]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific content provided in the report for this section.

金 信 期 货 纸 业 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/12 /25 品种聚焦 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO. ， LTD 废纸箱基本面分析 基本情况 价格：12月25日，废纸收购价格整体以上涨为主，华北、华中、华东等地多家纸厂上调了价格，涨价30 元-70元不等。 供需：到货量尚可，部分纸厂上调收购价。下游纸厂采购仍偏谨慎，多按需补库。 库存：纸厂原料库存处于中位，打包站库存低位，产业链库存结构分化。 利润：打包站利润被挤压，纸厂原料成本下行但成品跌价，利润仍承压。 核心结论：短期受龙头纸厂提价带动止跌反弹，但下游需求未实质改善，持续性有待观察。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 热点聚焦 品种聚焦 废纸现货价格 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：同花顺iFinD、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO. ， LTD 品种聚焦 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO. ， LTD 箱板纸基本面分析 建议：成本下跌与自身高库存导致价格走弱。虽计划涨价，但 ...

成文日期：20251223 研究品种:苹果 报告周期: 日报 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251223），期货品种苹果 AP2605 合约震荡上行，当 日收至 9230 点，较昨日上涨 0.49%，全日成交 93740 手，持仓 144841 手，较上一交易日减少 3937 手。 数据来源:国金期货博易大师 1.2 品种价格 当日苹果期货各合约全部上涨，成交量 99112 手，品种持仓量 168460 手，较上一交易日减少 4885 手。 图: 苹果期货日行情表 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图：苹果 AP2605 分时图 RHHH BEEF | 合约代 | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 昌高价 | 曽低价 | 今收盘 | 今结算 | 涨跌 | 涨跌 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | 成交额(万 | 交割结算 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Trend is strongly positive [1] - PTA: Cost support is strongly positive [1] - MEG: Valuation rebounds from the bottom, but there is still pressure in the medium term [1] Core Viewpoints - PX: The unilateral price trend is strongly positive and squeezes downstream profits. Pay attention to the long PX and short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions, and the 5 - 9 calendar spread positive arbitrage. Despite polyester factory production cuts, the tight PX supply expectation cannot be falsified in the short - term [9]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, the unilateral trend is upward, with positive arbitrage. Go long PTA and short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB. Tight PX supply supports the cost and continues to squeeze downstream profits [9]. - MEG: Affected by the news of a 720,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan planning to shut down next month, the ethylene glycol market rose, with short - covering accelerating the increase. The shutdown is expected to reduce mainland imports by 40,000 - 50,000 tons per month. Current MEG valuation is low, causing domestic plants to enter the loss zone and some to consider reducing production. However, high port inventories and polyester production cut expectations limit the upside [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures**: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had closing prices of 7,294, 5,094, 3,818, 6,484, and 444.7 respectively yesterday. The price changes were - 8, 12, 195, 32, and 3.8, with percentage changes of - 0.11%, 0.24%, 5.38%, 0.50%, and 0.86% respectively [2]. - **Calendar Spreads**: PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 had closing prices of - 82, - 66, - 152, - 54, and - 0.3 respectively yesterday. The price changes were - 16, 2, - 33, 16, and - 1.2 respectively [2]. - **Spot**: PX CFR China was 901 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was 5,018 yuan/ton, MEG spot was 3,598 yuan/ton, naphtha MOPJ was 540.25 dollars/ton, and Dated Brent was 63.52 dollars/barrel yesterday. The price changes were 5, 63, 76, - 2, and 0.45 respectively [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing margin, short - fiber processing margin, bottle - chip processing margin, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 335.45, 150.47, 221.69, 40.59, and - 4.23 respectively yesterday. The price changes were 30.34, - 28.15, - 24.11, - 61.21, and 0.11 respectively [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: A 200,000 - ton PX plant in Japan is currently restarting after a shutdown in mid - September. A 700,000 - ton PX plant in the Northeast plans to restart this weekend, with capacity expected to expand to 1 million tons after restart. A 390,000 - ton PX plant in North China is shut down, and the restart time is undetermined [2]. - **PTA**: In November, China's PTA exports increased by about 61% compared to October, with a significant increase in Indian buyers' interest. India bought 69,802 tons of PTA in November, more than five times the amount in October. Vietnam's imports increased slightly to 34,120 tons in November. Egypt's imports also increased by about 53% to 92,052 tons [5]. - **MEG**: From December 22 to December 28, the expected arrivals at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Ningbo are about 15,000 tons, 89,000 tons, and 14,000 tons respectively. Two MEG plants in Taiwan with a total capacity of 720,000 tons/year plan to shut down next month, and the restart time is undetermined. An Iranian 500,000 - ton/year MEG plant has restarted recently [6]. - **Polyester**: The total planned production cuts of three major polyester filament manufacturers are about 2.494 million tons, including 1.61 million tons of POY and 883,000 tons of FDY. A 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Tongxiang has shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. On December 24, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 80%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on December 24 was generally weak, with an average of about 40% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口利润为166元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为642.17元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 点评 24 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8860 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.43%，持仓 增仓 4414 手至 21.8 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9063 元/吨，较上一交易 日上调 23 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水转至 贴水 10 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 58300 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.3%，持仓减仓 4519 手至 12.7 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格下调 至 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格下调至 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴 水收至 5960 元/吨。西北厂家新增检修动态，因新产出品被前期套保单锁 定，厂家整体压力不大。年末西北存在进一步环保减产预期，工业硅受减 产和多晶硅提振，短期延续偏强态势。硅厂大幅提升现货报价，部分咨询 网站坚持稳价发布。受银价持续攀升影响，电池片全尺寸及硅片价格上 涨，下游在协会新的配额要求下面临一定减产压力。交易所再度进行规则 调整，针对全合约实施交易限额，叠加新纳入交割的两家品牌注册了少量 仓单， ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals market, particularly silver, has seen unprecedented inflows and price increases, with silver futures experiencing a significant rise in both trading volume and price, indicating strong investor interest and market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 24, domestic platinum, palladium, silver, copper, and gold all reached new historical highs, with silver futures seeing a daily increase of 8.12% [3]. - The net inflow of funds into silver futures on December 24 was nearly 6.5 billion yuan, with a total open interest of approximately 820,000 contracts, indicating a substantial accumulation of capital [1][3]. - The price of the main silver futures contract has surpassed 17,600 yuan per kilogram, marking a new record [3]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - From the beginning of December to the present, the domestic silver futures have increased by 38.36%, significantly outpacing international silver prices, which rose by 25.4% in New York and 26% in London during the same period [2]. - The domestic silver fund, Guotou Silver LOF, has seen a remarkable increase of 103.93% since early December, with an annual increase of 254.9%, far exceeding the monthly and annual increases of silver futures [4]. Group 3: Fund and Investment Dynamics - The Guotou Silver LOF fund has experienced a trading halt due to its price being significantly higher than its net asset value, indicating potential risks for investors [7]. - Other commodity funds, including those focused on precious metals, have also announced trading halts due to similar pricing discrepancies, highlighting the volatility in the market [9]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented new trading limits and margin requirements for silver futures to manage the high volatility and speculative trading [10][11]. - The CME Group has also raised margin requirements for silver futures, aiming to curb excessive leverage in the market, which historically has led to significant price corrections [11].

免责声明 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 | 铁矿石产业期现日报 | | | | STATISTICS CONSULT O | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月25日 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 836.9 | 836.9 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 846.8 | 845.7 | 1.1 | 0.1% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 843.1 | 840.9 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 884.0 | 882.9 | 1.1 | 0.1% | | | 05合约基差:卡粉 | 57.4 | 58.4 | -1.0 | -1.7% | 元/吨 | | 05合约基差:PB粉 | 67.3 | 67.2 | 0.1 | 0.1% | | | 05 ...