Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the New South Wales Treasury Corporation's significant reduction of USD exposure has yielded substantial returns, preparing for a further decline in the USD exchange rate, reinforcing the logic of a long-term USD bear market [1][2] - The Treasury Corporation has reduced its USD weight in its foreign exchange investment portfolio from nearly 75% to approximately 14%, indicating a strategic shift towards defensive currencies like JPY, CHF, and EUR [1] - The Chief Investment Officer, Stuart Brentnall, anticipates a further 10% decline in the USD, highlighting the impact of U.S. policy uncertainty and potential Fed rate cuts on the currency's performance [1][3] Group 2 - The recent strategy shift has resulted in a 2% increase in investment returns over the past year, with unhedged positions outperforming hedged ones by about 7% [2] - Analysts expect the USD to continue its downward trajectory, with an anticipated 8% decline for the remainder of the year, reflecting ongoing economic slowdown and Fed rate cut preparations [3] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, exacerbated by political tensions, are eroding the USD's safe-haven status, leading to increased demand for alternative assets like gold and silver [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Nearly 600 economists have signed an open letter warning that Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook threatens the independence of the U.S. financial system and undermines public trust in the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Economists' Concerns - The open letter emphasizes that credible economic policy relies on a trustworthy monetary authority, which in turn depends on the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - The signatories include notable economists such as Nobel laureates Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Romer, as well as former White House economic advisors [1] - Economists argue that Trump's actions are based on unverified allegations, which jeopardize the fundamental principle of central bank independence and erode public trust in a key U.S. institution [2][3] Group 2: Trump's Actions and Implications - Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs and has previously suggested removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell over alleged mismanagement of a renovation project [2] - If Trump successfully removes Cook, he could appoint a new governor, thereby exerting more direct influence over the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] - The White House claims that the president has legal justification for removing Cook, asserting that it enhances the credibility and accountability of the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3: Legal Proceedings - Cook has filed a lawsuit seeking to prevent her removal, arguing that the accusations against her are baseless and merely a pretext [3] - A hearing was held regarding Cook's request for a temporary restraining order, but no decision has been made yet [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged past the psychological barrier of $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $3508.73, driven by multiple favorable factors and underlying market tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is high, with nearly a 90% probability for a September cut, supported by dovish signals from Fed officials [3]. - A weak US dollar has made gold more attractive globally, as it becomes cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thus boosting demand [5]. - Rising geopolitical tensions and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have heightened market risk aversion, leading investors to turn to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technical analysis indicates that gold has formed a bullish "ascending triangle" pattern, suggesting potential for further price increases, with key resistance levels at $3490-$3500 and support at $3460-$3450 [7]. - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs are optimistic, predicting gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, attracting more investor interest [7]. - However, some analysts caution about potential short-term technical corrections, noting a divergence in trading volume that may indicate underlying risks [7]. Group 3: Upcoming Market Events - The gold market may experience significant volatility in the coming days, particularly with the upcoming court ruling on President Trump's dismissal of a Fed official, which is seen as a critical test of the Fed's independence [8]. - The release of the US non-farm payroll report could provide further evidence of labor market weakness, potentially reinforcing the case for a Fed rate cut and impacting gold prices [8].

亚洲交易时段周二（9月2日），现货黄金突破3500美元关口，最高触及3504.5美元/盎司，日内涨幅约 0.8%，再度刷新历史纪录。 金价延续上周2.3%的涨势，分析师认为，市场对美联储独立性及政策稳定性的担忧叠加降息预期，推 动投资者加码避险资产。 上周五，美国联邦法院就总统特朗普解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）一案举行紧急听证，但未 作出即时裁决，法官表示至少要推迟至本周二再做决定。这一案件被视为美联储独立性的历史性考验。 市场人士普遍认为，如果美联储决策受制于政治压力，政策框架稳定性将被削弱，美元与美债的吸引力 受损，间接利好黄金。 "金价上涨反映出市场对制度稳定的忧虑。"盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森（Ole Hansen）表 示，"黄金延续上周五的强劲涨势，主要受到美国通胀持续走高、消费者情绪疲软、降息预期以及对美 联储独立性的担忧等因素支撑。" 与此同时，美国上诉法院在另一案件中裁定大多数特朗普关税非法，政策不确定性进一步加剧。分析人 士认为，贸易规则的摇摆放大了市场的不安情绪，投资者寻求避险资产作为对冲。 美国经济数据同样为金价提供支持。上周五公布的数据显示，美国7月个人消费支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Stephen Milan, a close ally of Trump, to the Federal Reserve Board raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and its future monetary policy direction [1][3][10]. Group 1: Appointment Implications - Milan's background as a supporter of Trump's policies and his involvement in trade agreements suggests he may prioritize a more accommodative monetary policy [3][5]. - If Milan is confirmed before the September meeting, he could influence discussions on interest rates and asset balance sheet reduction towards a more dovish stance [5][10]. - The historical context shows that political pressure on the Fed can lead to adverse long-term economic consequences, as seen during Nixon's presidency [8][11]. Group 2: Economic Context - The current U.S. benchmark interest rate is above 5%, and inflation, while reduced from a peak of over 9%, remains around 3% [5][6]. - A significant reduction in interest rates could risk reigniting inflation, which may not align with Trump's electoral priorities [6][11]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to exceed $1.7 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year, raising concerns about the implications of a more lenient monetary policy [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The potential for Milan to push for quicker rate cuts could lead to a reevaluation of global market pricing, impacting the dollar's value and U.S. Treasury yields [10][11]. - The perception of the Fed as a tool of the White House could undermine confidence in U.S. debt as a safe-haven asset, leading to possible market sell-offs [13][15]. - The ongoing politicization of the Fed may erode its credibility and independence, which are crucial for maintaining market stability [13][15].

Group 1: Return of 1930s Political Model - Current political and social conditions in the U.S. are compared to the global situation of the 1930s-1940s, characterized by wealth disparity, value gap, and a collapse of trust, leading to more extreme policies [4] - Trump's intervention in the private sector, such as acquiring a 10% stake in Intel, is seen as a manifestation of "strong authoritarian leadership" driven by a desire to control financial and economic situations [4] - Wall Street investors are increasingly concerned about Trump's policies but remain silent due to fear of retaliation [4][5] Group 2: Threats to Federal Reserve Independence - Dalio warns that the independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, particularly after Trump's public dismissal of a Fed official [6][7] - A politicized central bank could undermine confidence in the Fed's ability to protect the value of the currency, making dollar-denominated debt assets less attractive [8] - International investors are shifting from U.S. Treasuries to gold, reflecting concerns about the stability of the dollar system [9] Group 3: Impending Debt Crisis - Dalio predicts that the U.S. will face a debt crisis in about three years, driven by a significant fiscal imbalance where annual spending is approximately $7 trillion against $5 trillion in revenue [11] - Investors are questioning whether U.S. Treasuries remain a good store of wealth, as debt demand may not keep pace with supply [12] - The Fed faces a difficult choice: allow interest rates to rise and risk a debt default crisis, or print money to buy debt that others are unwilling to purchase, both of which could harm the dollar [12]

美国联邦住房金融局局长Bill Pulte对福克斯商业台表示，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔没有在追究丽莎·库 克的责任。 Pulte表示，针对库克的指控似乎是"公然的抵押贷款欺诈，而杰罗姆·鲍威尔却保持沉默，可 以说他的做法显示了美联储缺乏独立性"。 来源：滚动播报 ...

随着特朗普上台以来，不断加大对美联储的施压力度，这个一向以保守和共识著称的专业性机构，很可 能会变得像美国最高法院一样愈加分裂。 自从特朗普重返白宫以来，特朗普一直要求美联储启动降息，还因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔主席拒 不降息而频繁对其进行指责。他还暗示自己有可能解雇鲍威尔，不过之后他又收回了这一说法。现在特 朗普又威胁称，如果美联储理事莉萨·库克不主动辞职，他就会将其解雇。 对此，莉萨·库克表示，她绝不会在胁迫下辞职。她还表示将对特朗普政府官员对她提出的抵押贷款欺 诈指控进行反诉。不管她的官司会打得怎么样，有一个问题都是现实的——她还会选择留任多久。 库克是2022年加入美联储的，当时美联储的一位理事任期未满便宣告辞职，库克在老拜登的提名下临时 补缺，后来又获得了连任。因此，她可以在美联储理事会干到2038年，不过理事们通常不会干满整个14 年的任期。 Capital Alpha Partners公司的管理合伙人伊恩·卡茨在上周三的一份报告中指出："现在，美联储已经越来 越像一颗政治足球。特朗普已明确表示，他想让忠于自己的人进入美联储理事会。因此，有的理事可能 会选择留任至自己政党这边的总统入主白宫——这 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio warns that the current political and social climate in the U.S. resembles that of the 1930s, with Wall Street investors remaining silent due to fear of retaliation for criticizing presidential policies [1][3]. Group 1: Political and Economic Interventions - Dalio highlights Trump's intervention in the private sector, such as acquiring a 10% stake in Intel, as indicative of "strong authoritarian leadership" driven by a desire to control financial and economic situations [2][3]. - The increasing wealth gap, value gap, and erosion of trust are pushing the U.S. towards more extreme policies, weakening democratic institutions and leading to a rise in authoritarian leadership [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Dalio expresses concern over the independence of the Federal Reserve, stating that a politicized central bank will undermine confidence in its ability to protect the value of the currency [2][5]. - International investors are reportedly shifting from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold, reflecting concerns about the stability of the dollar system amid political pressures on the Federal Reserve [6]. Group 3: Debt Crisis Predictions - Dalio predicts that the U.S. will face a debt crisis in about three years, driven by a significant fiscal imbalance where annual spending is approximately $7 trillion against $5 trillion in revenue [7][8]. - Investors are questioning whether U.S. Treasury bonds remain a reliable store of wealth, as the demand for debt is unlikely to keep pace with supply [8].

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio warns that the U.S. is being pushed towards a governance model reminiscent of the 1930s due to Trump's strong intervention in the private sector, leading to fears among Wall Street investors about potential retaliation for criticism [1][3][4] Group 1: Political and Economic Context - Dalio compares the current political and social climate in the U.S. to the global situation of the 1930s and 1940s, highlighting issues such as wealth disparity, value gap, and a collapse of trust driving the adoption of more extreme policies [4][5] - The intervention by the Trump administration in the private sector, particularly the acquisition of a 10% stake in Intel, exemplifies a desire for strong authoritarian leadership and control over financial and economic situations [3][4] Group 2: Wall Street's Response - Despite growing concerns among Wall Street investors regarding Trump's policies, few prominent financial figures openly criticize the president due to fears of retaliation [5][6] - Dalio emphasizes that his statements are merely a description of the causal relationships driving the current situation, highlighting the political pressure faced by the financial community [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Dalio expresses concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly following Trump's actions to dismiss a Fed governor, which could undermine public confidence in the Fed's ability to maintain currency value [6] - The political pressure on the Fed may lead to a loss of attractiveness for dollar-denominated debt assets, prompting international investors to shift towards gold [6] Group 4: Debt Crisis Prediction - Dalio predicts that the U.S. will face a debt crisis within approximately three years, driven by a significant fiscal imbalance where annual expenditures of about $7 trillion exceed revenues of $5 trillion [7][8] - Investors are beginning to question whether U.S. Treasury bonds remain a reliable store of wealth, as debt demand is unlikely to keep pace with supply [8] - The Federal Reserve faces a difficult choice between allowing interest rates to rise, risking a debt default crisis, or printing money to purchase unwanted debt, both of which could harm the dollar [8]