UNforex 1月15日讯（分析师 Simon）随着美国最新经济数据持续释放韧性信号，市场对美联储短期内 维持政策稳定的预期不断升温，国际黄金价格在刷新历史高位后出现回吐。周四亚洲及欧洲早盘，现货 黄金（XAU/USD）运行于每盎司4600美元附近，较前一交易日触及的4643美元高点有所回落，走势转 入高位整理。 近期公布的美国宏观数据对市场预期形成明显指引。数据显示，11月美国零售销售环比增长0.6%，明 显高于此前0.4%的市场预期；生产者价格指数（PPI）同比升至3.0%，核心PPI同样超出预期。在消费 与通胀数据同步走强、失业率小幅回落的背景下，市场对美联储在未来数月维持利率不变的判断进一步 巩固。利率期货定价显示，1月会议降息概率已接近零水平，多数机构将年内首次降息时间点推后至年 中。受此影响，不具利息收益属性的黄金在短期内承受一定压力。 利率预期调整推动美元重新获得支撑。美元指数在此前回落后吸引技术性买盘，周四欧洲早盘回升至 99.10上方，逼近99.15一线。美元走强削弱了以美元计价的贵金属吸引力，加剧了黄金在高位的波动。 同时，美债收益率维持高位运行，也限制了金价短期内继续上行的空间，市场进 ...

Group 1 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining low and stable inflation rates in the U.S. [1][6] - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized that undermining the Fed's independence would exacerbate inflation issues [1][6] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the U.S. economy remains resilient under high interest rates, with inflation still above the Fed's 2% target [1][7] Group 2 - Consumer spending remains stable, and investments related to artificial intelligence, including data centers and energy infrastructure, are strong [7] - Kashkari highlighted the need for caution in monetary policy until inflation is clearly back on target [7] - The unemployment rate is around 4.4%, with limited signs of pressure in the labor market despite slowing job growth [7]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普"不可预测"的政策，促使债券巨头太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）开始减持美国资产 以分散投资风险。与此同时，华尔街正忧心忡忡，密切关注特朗普抨击美联储所引发的长期后果。 "任何损害美联储独立性的行为，都绝非明智之举。"摩根大通首席执行官杰米・戴蒙（Jamie Dimon） 在周二表示，"在我看来，这种做法只会适得其反，最终会推升通胀预期，并且很可能导致长期利率走 高。" 某大型华尔街机构的资深交易员补充道，特朗普针对美联储的一系列举动，会削弱美联储的公信力，进 而损害其应对危机的能力。 "这些负面影响不会立刻显现，但一旦未来爆发危机或通胀预期升温，其破坏性就会彻底暴露。"他说 道。 伊万辛也表达了类似观点，他强调："美联储制定货币政策的独立性，对市场而言至关重要。" 他进一步阐释："尽管从表面上看，施压美联储降息似乎颇具诱惑力……但在经济强劲增长、通胀高企 的背景下，激进降息很可能会导致长期利率上升。" 华尔街高管们还警告称，向鲍威尔发出传票，其核心目的或许并非针对现任美联储主席，而是瞄准他的 继任者——市场担忧特朗普可能会试图向美联储下 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing fluctuations and a downward trend, currently trading around $4589.63 per ounce, as the market adjusts to rebuild bullish momentum after a strong rally, aiming for new historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices is influenced by stronger-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data, along with a decrease in unemployment rates, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's rationale to maintain interest rates in the coming months [1] - Safe-haven demand for gold is weakening, partly due to easing geopolitical concerns, as U.S. President Donald Trump indicated a reduction in reported killings related to Iran and no plans for large-scale executions, although he did not rule out potential military actions [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in an emerging ascending wedge pattern, signaling a potential weakening of upward momentum, with warnings of a bearish reversal if prices fall below the lower trendline on strong volume [2] - Gold prices are maintaining above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), supporting a short-term upward trend, while the 50-day EMA is also turning upward, indicating a broader bullish outlook [2] - Immediate resistance is noted at $4643, the historical high, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending wedge near $4660, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a rise towards $4700 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may influence his decision to remain on the board after his term ends in May, amidst President Trump's attempts to pressure the Fed for interest rate cuts [1][8]. Group 1: Powell's Tenure and Market Reactions - Following the investigation news, the probability of Powell leaving the Federal Reserve by May 30 has dropped from 74% to 45%, and the likelihood of him leaving by the end of the year has decreased from 85% to 62% [1][3]. - Market participants are increasingly speculating that Powell may stay on the board for an extended period, potentially until 2028, to uphold the Fed's independence [8][10]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Implications - The pressure exerted on Powell by Trump may backfire, as premature interest rate cuts could lead to rising inflation, undermining the Fed's credibility [8]. - The investigation has brought the issue of the Fed's independence to the forefront, with Powell's potential decision to remain seen as a move to protect that independence [8][10]. Group 3: Nomination Dynamics - The probability of Kevin Hassett being nominated as the next Fed Chair has diminished, with Kevin Warsh gaining more support among potential candidates [4][7]. - Trump's proposal to nominate Hassett faces increasing challenges in the Senate, particularly due to Hassett's support for aggressive rate cuts [8][9].

2026年1月13日，全球金融界被一份突如其来的联合声明震撼。 《华尔街日报》等媒体迅速跟进报道，欧洲中央银行行长，连同英国、瑞典、丹麦、瑞士、澳大利亚、加拿大、韩国和巴西这八个国家的央行行长，史无前 例地站到了同一阵线。 他们发表声明，目的只有一个：力挺正处于漩涡中心的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。 声明里的措辞非常直接且有力："我们与美联储及其主席鲍威尔完全团结在一起。 "这些掌管着全球主要货币政策的行长们强调，维护美联储的独立性"至关 重要"。 国际清算银行的正副主席也在声明上署了名，这让声明的分量变得更重。 通常，各国央行行长在公开场合都对彼此国内事务保持谨慎距离，如此公 开、集体地支持另一国央行领导人，在现代金融史上极为罕见。 这场国际风波的中心，是美联储主席鲍威尔正面临来自美国政府的刑事调查威胁。 当地时间1月11日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室正式对鲍威尔展开调查。 调查的焦点有两个：一是美联储华盛顿总部那个耗资巨大的翻修项目，二 是鲍威尔是否在2025年6月就该项目向美国国会参议院作伪证。 这个翻修项目本身就是一个争议点。 项目在2022年启动，原计划是对美联储这座老旧建筑进行必要的现代化改造 ...

一通电话，就能让美联储主席鲍威尔收拾东西准备走人，这让人难以置信。过去，美国总统想让某位官员下台，通常需要有正当的理由，走法律程序，还得 看国会和法院的态度。但如今，特朗普只需一个眼神，或者在社交媒体上发个帖子，就能达到目的。想象一下，当美联储主席鲍威尔的桌子上已经堆满了法 院传票时，这个国家还会有谁是不能动的？ 1月11日晚，美联储主席鲍威尔发布声明称，美联储已收到美国司法部的传票。据报道，联邦检察官正在对鲍威 尔展开刑事调查，重点是他在2018年关于美联储办公楼翻新工程的一段证词。乍一看，这场风波似乎仅仅是关于那笔25亿美元的装修费，然而背后隐藏的却 是更深层次的政治博弈。当时，美联储办公大楼的翻修费用从初期预算的19亿美元飙升至25亿美元，特朗普对此批评不已，认为这是豪华装修。而去年鲍威 尔在国会作证时也承认了预算超支，但他特别强调，这笔钱是为了满足安全性和现代化需求。表面上看，司法部对此展开调查，似乎是为了这笔超支，但事 实上，这一切都只是幌子——特朗普真正关心的，是美联储的利率。对于别人来说，面对这种调查，大多选择低头认错，配合调查，或是请律师发个符合程 序的声明。但鲍威尔的反应，却超出了所有人的预 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices rebounded and reached a new historical high, indicating a bullish outlook for the market, with support levels at the 5-day or 10-day moving averages for buying on dips [1]. Price Movement - Gold opened slightly higher at $4588.21 per ounce, marking the day's low, and subsequently strengthened, facing resistance around $4640. The price fluctuated during the U.S. trading session, peaking at $4642.63 before closing at $4626.26, up $39.83 or 0.87% from the previous close of $4586.43, with a daily range of $56.2 [3]. Influencing Factors - The rise in gold prices was driven by geopolitical tensions and criticism of the Federal Reserve by the Trump administration. However, strong U.S. retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data limited further gains for gold, causing it to encounter resistance [3]. Outlook - On January 15, gold prices initially declined due to technical adjustments, despite the previous day's strong retail sales and PPI data. Political uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to provide support for gold. Traders maintain expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, suggesting that bullish factors remain, and any temporary pullbacks could present further buying opportunities [3].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has escalated to a judicial level, with the U.S. Department of Justice issuing a subpoena to the Federal Reserve, marking the first criminal investigation of a Fed chairman in U.S. history. This may inadvertently push the Fed towards a more hawkish stance, complicating Trump's potential selection of a dovish successor [1]. Group 1: Powell's Future at the Fed - Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends in May, but unless he resigns, his term as a board member will last until January 2028, indicating that the conflict with Trump may continue beyond May [2]. - Betting markets have significantly reduced the likelihood of Powell leaving the Fed after May 30, with only a 45% chance compared to 74% earlier in the month, and a 62% chance of leaving by the end of the year, down from 85% [5]. Group 2: Potential Leadership Changes - The betting market has reassessed the likelihood of Kevin Hassett, a close ally of Trump, succeeding Powell, now favoring Kevin Warsh, who has a more hawkish stance on monetary policy [5]. - Analysts predict a more hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as a result of the ongoing disputes, with Powell likely to remain a board member for the next two years, contrary to the expectations of the Trump administration [8]. Group 3: Implications of the Judicial Investigation - The investigation by the Justice Department may reinforce the Fed's independence, as policymakers strive to avoid political pressure, especially in light of the scrutiny surrounding Powell [9]. - Powell's potential decision to remain at the Fed may be influenced by the need to protect the institution's independence and credibility, particularly after the investigation [9]. - Trump's chances of securing Senate support for Hassett's appointment as Fed Chairman appear diminished, further complicating the leadership transition [9].

这一言论发生在参议院表决尚未完成之前，显然带有施压的意图。这场博弈，显然并未结束。它从国会 山蔓延到了美联储，而这场风暴也在不断扩展。2026年1月9日，美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑 事调查的消息一经传出，立刻引发了市场的巨大震动。虽然表面上看，这条新闻是关于司法的，却像是 一颗重磅炸弹，直接抛向了金融核心区。司法部给出的调查理由是，美联储华盛顿总部的翻修工程存在 规模、预算和成本上的不实陈述。对于美联储来说，它不仅仅是一个管理利率的机构，它更像是美国金 融体系的轴心。美元为何能成为世界货币，美债为何被视作安全资产，华尔街为何敢于将资金押注美国 ——这些背后的支撑，都离不开美联储的独立性与规则的稳定性。可是，当刑事调查这四个字出现在美 联储主席头上时，市场的第一反应并非是猜测案情，而是担忧规则是否还能保持稳定。特朗普的回应， 同样值得深思。2026年1月11日，他对外表示我不知道，这表面上看似是在和司法调查保持距离，避免 外界将司法行动与白宫直接挂钩；但在政治语境下，这句话实际上将这场博弈推向了更深层次的对抗。 2026年1月8日，华盛顿国会山，230票赞成，196票反对，相差的仅仅34票，足以揭开共和 ...