CI_ROME/iStock via Getty Images By Elior Manier The past week was subject to more rounds of volatility, taking major US Indexes to retest and break below October lows. Hawkish Fed fears and the cancellation of key October reports like ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 18 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色持续走弱 核心观点 沪铜 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 今日沪铜持续减仓下行，主力期价跌破 8.6 万关口，多头了结意 愿较强。宏观层面，受美联储鹰派影响，市场氛围持续走弱，有色 普跌。技术上，关注月初低位支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝持续减仓下行，主力期价跌破 2.15 万关口。宏观层面， 受美联储鹰派影响，市场氛围持续走弱，有色普跌。产业层面，上周 以来随着铝价上涨，现货贴水持续走弱，而本周铝价高位回落，贴水 并未改善，这意味着产业支撑不强。技术上，持 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated around 86,500 yuan. Last Friday, affected by the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, copper prices declined under pressure. On the industrial level, as copper prices fell, downstream support increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 86,000 yuan mark [7]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum dived in the morning and then stabilized and rebounded, continuing the fluctuating trend throughout the day. The trading volume decreased, indicating a strong willingness of short - term bulls to close positions. Last Friday, affected by the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, copper prices declined under pressure. On the industrial level, as aluminum prices rose last week, the industry's willingness to take delivery was weak, and the spot discount continued to weaken. Additionally, aluminum prices are at a nearly two - year high and face strong technical pressure. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 yuan mark [8]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated weakly. After the decline last week, the downward trend of nickel prices slowed down on Monday. Last week, the non - ferrous sector corrected, and nickel prices showed a downward trend, breaking through the 120,000 yuan mark, followed by a significant decline with increasing positions. As nickel prices declined, the spot premium gradually strengthened, reflecting increased support from the industrial end. Technically, attention should be paid to the lows in June and April this year [9]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 17, SMM reported that a bridge at a copper mine in the southeast of the Democratic Republic of the Congo collapsed on Saturday, resulting in 49 deaths and 20 seriously injured people being sent to the hospital [11]. - **Aluminum**: On November 17, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 637,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to the 13th and 21,000 tons compared to the 10th [12]. - **Nickel**: On November 17, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was between 116,500 - 120,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 118,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,800 - 4,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 3,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 50 - 400 yuan/ton [13]. Group 4: Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [14][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory [27][29][34]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [40][42][45].

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam has actively borrowed from the RMB exchange rate system to enhance the flexibility of the VND exchange rate, allowing for two-way fluctuations in its exchange rate mechanism, which is crucial for strengthening financial cooperation with China and expanding bilateral currency settlement [1][30]. Group 1: Historical Exchange Rate Mechanism - Before 2015, Vietnam maintained a fixed exchange rate system pegged to the USD, experiencing significant depreciation during financial crises, with a cumulative depreciation of over 26% during the Asian financial crisis and 30% during the US subprime mortgage crisis [2][3]. - The exchange rate system was characterized by narrow fluctuations and intermittent large depreciations, despite being classified as a hard peg by the IMF [3][6]. Group 2: Reform and Development of Exchange Rate Mechanism - In 2014-2015, Vietnam initiated reforms to its exchange rate formation mechanism to stabilize the foreign exchange market and support its economic reforms [6][7]. - The official exchange rate was established based on supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, with the State Bank of Vietnam managing the exchange rate through monetary policy tools and market interventions [7][8]. Group 3: Introduction of the Intermediate Rate Mechanism - Following China's "8•11" exchange rate reform in 2015, Vietnam introduced an intermediate rate mechanism for the VND, allowing for a more flexible exchange rate that reflects market conditions and trade relationships [9][10]. - The VND exhibited a "half-following" characteristic to the RMB, where it remained stable against the USD until depreciation pressure accumulated, leading to a quick depreciation [11][15]. Group 4: Two-Way Fluctuation and Increased Flexibility - Since 2020, the VND has achieved two-way fluctuations, allowing for more elastic movements in response to market conditions, with significant depreciation occurring in 2022-2024 [16][25]. - The correlation between the VND and RMB has strengthened, with the VND no longer maintaining stability against the USD during RMB appreciation, but rather following the RMB's movements [25][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook for the VND - The VND has experienced a depreciation trend since February 2025, with a 5.06% depreciation against the USD and approximately 6.85% against the RMB [31][35]. - Key factors influencing the future exchange rate include trade tensions with the US and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which may exert additional pressure on the VND [36][37].

Economic Performance - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 reached 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and significantly higher than the previous value of -0.5%[5] - The main supports for this growth were a decrease in imports, resilient consumer spending, and private non-residential investment[5] - The contribution of net exports to GDP increased to 4.99% in Q2, a significant recovery from a 4.61 percentage point drag in Q1 due to "import rush" effects[6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change[19] - There is increasing internal dissent within the Fed, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating growing divisions[19] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and a hawkish stance, suggesting that future decisions will be data-driven rather than politically influenced[19] Inflation and Market Outlook - Short-term inflation data has not fully reflected the impact of tariffs, with expectations of continued upward pressure on inflation, which may hinder rate cuts[20] - The market's expectation for rate cuts has narrowed, with only one potential cut anticipated in October 2025, aligning with previous forecasts[20] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of 2025 due to rising inflation expectations and economic policy impacts[20] Stock Market Trends - The US stock market may experience short-term volatility but is expected to maintain an overall upward trend, particularly in technology sectors supported by capital expenditures and performance[22] - Trump's tax reduction policies are anticipated to benefit small and medium-sized enterprises, with the Russell 2000 index likely to gain from these changes[23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US economy shows resilience, supported by a decline in imports, strong consumer spending, and a return of manufacturing investments, leading to a narrowing of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 2 - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and significantly higher than the previous value of -0.5% [1] - Key supports for the GDP growth included a decrease in imports, resilient consumer spending, and private non-residential investment, while private inventory changes, residential investment, and goods and services exports were the main drags [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed internal divisions, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating increasing disagreement within the committee [2] - The Fed expressed greater uncertainty regarding economic and inflation outlooks, with tariffs beginning to impact consumer prices, suggesting that inflation data will be influenced by these tariffs [2] - The Fed's stance remains hawkish, with a commitment to data-driven decisions, leading to a further reduction in market expectations for rate cuts throughout the year [2][3] - The expectation for interest rate cuts has narrowed, with only one potential cut anticipated in October, and the risk of no cuts for the entire year has increased [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to oscillate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of the year, reflecting a higher interest rate environment [3] - The US stock market is expected to experience some volatility but maintain an overall upward trend, particularly in sectors supported by capital expenditures and performance, such as AI and semiconductors [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is suppressing gold prices, leading to a weakening of the rebound momentum in the gold market [1] Group 1 - The analysis indicates that the current market conditions are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, which are perceived as aggressive [1] - There is a suggestion that the potential for gold price recovery is diminishing due to these external pressures [1] - Real-time order flow analysis is being utilized to assess market dynamics and potential future movements in gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical conflicts and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on gold prices, which are currently at a crossroads [1] - It emphasizes the need for investors to identify the best entry points in the gold market amidst these influences [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of gold first rose and then fell this week. The short - term tariff issue is moving towards easing, and the market trading logic has changed, which is bearish for gold. The US economic data is mixed, and the short - term monetary policy is cautious, lacking positive factors for the gold price. Gold is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the callback pressure brought by the phased recovery of market risk appetite [2][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The on - shore basis (spot - futures) decreased by 2.6% to - 3.68 yuan/gram; the internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) increased by 157.2% to 13.80 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3.5% to 17,847 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.73% to 38,117,334 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 0.43% to 934.21 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 11.3% to 130,505 lots. The US Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3% to 4.51%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.24% to 99.2 [10] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 99.2, the US Treasury bond yield was 4.5%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.5%, the VIX index dropped to 16.77, the US overnight secured financing rate was 4.29%, the oil price rose 6.9%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.31%. The real interest rate rose to 2.19%, and the gold price rose 0.6% [2][9][16][20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5%. Developing - country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.13%. US and German bonds rebounded, with a US - German spread of 1.93%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.64%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.46%. The euro rose 0.43%, the British pound rose 0.51%, the Japanese yen fell 0.58%, and the Swiss franc rose slightly by 0.01%. Non - US currencies mostly appreciated [24][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly increased to 130,000 lots, and the SPDR gold ETF holding volume slightly increased to 934 tons. The RMB appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium narrowed. Gold rose slightly, silver rose sharply, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 92 [37][39] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's May CPI and import - export data, US May New York Fed inflation expectation; Tuesday: US May NFIB small - business confidence index, China's May financial data; Wednesday: US May CPI; Thursday: US May PPI and initial jobless claims, 10 - year US Treasury bond auction; Friday: US June University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectation [40]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with 3,856 stocks falling, and the ChiNext index dropping nearly 2%, aligning with previous predictions [1] - As of May 14, the market capitalization of bank stocks in A-shares exceeded 10 trillion, accounting for over 10% of the total market capitalization of more than 5,000 listed companies [1] - The high market capitalization of banks is drawing liquidity away from other sectors, particularly technology, with semiconductor, AI, and electronics indices underperforming compared to bank indices [1] Group 2 - A notable decrease in trading volume occurred, dropping to 11.904 trillion, a reduction of 1.595 trillion, compared to around 15 trillion at the previous 3,400-point level [3] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is influencing market expectations, with predictions for interest rate cuts being pushed to December, while the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to 4.5% [3] - The relationship between the U.S. monetary policy and the A-share market is highlighted, indicating that a strong dollar and weak RMB could lead to A-shares following U.S. market declines [4] Group 3 - The saying "five poor, six absolute" reflects a seasonal decline in market liquidity, with May being a period of reduced activity following the spring rally and earnings season [4] - The core driver of the recent market rebound has been the banking sector, but it has not generated significant market-wide enthusiasm or volume [4] - There has been a lack of a unifying theme like AI to drive the market, leading to limited upward momentum and volume expansion [5] Group 4 - The risk of market peaks was emphasized on May 8, with signs of a topping structure emerging, leading to a subsequent market adjustment [7] - Despite short-term bullish signals, structural indicators suggest a slowdown in the pace of price increases, resulting in a market correction [7] - The next support level for the Shenzhen index is projected at 10,100, following recent trendline breaks [7]