美联储鹰派继续 ——2025Q2 美国 GDP 和 7 月 FOMC 点评 宏 本报告导读： 美国二季度 GDP 超预期，"抢进口"下降、消费韧性和制造业回流投资是主要支撑， 预计后续美国经济仍有韧性，叠加关税在通胀中逐渐体现，美联储降息预期可能进 一步收窄。7 月份美联储议息会议继续按兵不动，但是内部分歧已经加大，后续美联 储独立性大概率仍可维持。美债利率中枢或将进一步抬升，美股仍有上行空间。 投资要点： 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 观 专 题 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.01 2025-08-01 [Table_Summary] 美国二季度 GDP 增速超预期，主要支撑来自进口下降、消费韧性 和私人非住宅投资。2025 年二季度美国 GDP 环比折年率达到 3.0%， 高于市场预期的 2.6%，同时也明显高于前值-0.5%。美国二季度 GDP 环比折年率超预期主要支撑来自"抢进口"下降、消费韧性和制造业 回流投资，主要拖累来自私人存货变化、私人住宅投资和商品服务 出口。向后看，我们认为：一是伴随着"抢进口"大幅减弱，进口下 降支撑会有 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US economy shows resilience, supported by a decline in imports, strong consumer spending, and a return of manufacturing investments, leading to a narrowing of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 2 - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and significantly higher than the previous value of -0.5% [1] - Key supports for the GDP growth included a decrease in imports, resilient consumer spending, and private non-residential investment, while private inventory changes, residential investment, and goods and services exports were the main drags [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed internal divisions, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating increasing disagreement within the committee [2] - The Fed expressed greater uncertainty regarding economic and inflation outlooks, with tariffs beginning to impact consumer prices, suggesting that inflation data will be influenced by these tariffs [2] - The Fed's stance remains hawkish, with a commitment to data-driven decisions, leading to a further reduction in market expectations for rate cuts throughout the year [2][3] - The expectation for interest rate cuts has narrowed, with only one potential cut anticipated in October, and the risk of no cuts for the entire year has increased [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to oscillate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of the year, reflecting a higher interest rate environment [3] - The US stock market is expected to experience some volatility but maintain an overall upward trend, particularly in sectors supported by capital expenditures and performance, such as AI and semiconductors [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is suppressing gold prices, leading to a weakening of the rebound momentum in the gold market [1] Group 1 - The analysis indicates that the current market conditions are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, which are perceived as aggressive [1] - There is a suggestion that the potential for gold price recovery is diminishing due to these external pressures [1] - Real-time order flow analysis is being utilized to assess market dynamics and potential future movements in gold prices [1]

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Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of gold first rose and then fell this week. The short - term tariff issue is moving towards easing, and the market trading logic has changed, which is bearish for gold. The US economic data is mixed, and the short - term monetary policy is cautious, lacking positive factors for the gold price. Gold is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the callback pressure brought by the phased recovery of market risk appetite [2][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The on - shore basis (spot - futures) decreased by 2.6% to - 3.68 yuan/gram; the internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) increased by 157.2% to 13.80 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3.5% to 17,847 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.73% to 38,117,334 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 0.43% to 934.21 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 11.3% to 130,505 lots. The US Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3% to 4.51%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.24% to 99.2 [10] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 99.2, the US Treasury bond yield was 4.5%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.5%, the VIX index dropped to 16.77, the US overnight secured financing rate was 4.29%, the oil price rose 6.9%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.31%. The real interest rate rose to 2.19%, and the gold price rose 0.6% [2][9][16][20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5%. Developing - country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.13%. US and German bonds rebounded, with a US - German spread of 1.93%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.64%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.46%. The euro rose 0.43%, the British pound rose 0.51%, the Japanese yen fell 0.58%, and the Swiss franc rose slightly by 0.01%. Non - US currencies mostly appreciated [24][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly increased to 130,000 lots, and the SPDR gold ETF holding volume slightly increased to 934 tons. The RMB appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium narrowed. Gold rose slightly, silver rose sharply, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 92 [37][39] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's May CPI and import - export data, US May New York Fed inflation expectation; Tuesday: US May NFIB small - business confidence index, China's May financial data; Wednesday: US May CPI; Thursday: US May PPI and initial jobless claims, 10 - year US Treasury bond auction; Friday: US June University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectation [40]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with 3,856 stocks falling, and the ChiNext index dropping nearly 2%, aligning with previous predictions [1] - As of May 14, the market capitalization of bank stocks in A-shares exceeded 10 trillion, accounting for over 10% of the total market capitalization of more than 5,000 listed companies [1] - The high market capitalization of banks is drawing liquidity away from other sectors, particularly technology, with semiconductor, AI, and electronics indices underperforming compared to bank indices [1] Group 2 - A notable decrease in trading volume occurred, dropping to 11.904 trillion, a reduction of 1.595 trillion, compared to around 15 trillion at the previous 3,400-point level [3] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is influencing market expectations, with predictions for interest rate cuts being pushed to December, while the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to 4.5% [3] - The relationship between the U.S. monetary policy and the A-share market is highlighted, indicating that a strong dollar and weak RMB could lead to A-shares following U.S. market declines [4] Group 3 - The saying "five poor, six absolute" reflects a seasonal decline in market liquidity, with May being a period of reduced activity following the spring rally and earnings season [4] - The core driver of the recent market rebound has been the banking sector, but it has not generated significant market-wide enthusiasm or volume [4] - There has been a lack of a unifying theme like AI to drive the market, leading to limited upward momentum and volume expansion [5] Group 4 - The risk of market peaks was emphasized on May 8, with signs of a topping structure emerging, leading to a subsequent market adjustment [7] - Despite short-term bullish signals, structural indicators suggest a slowdown in the pace of price increases, resulting in a market correction [7] - The next support level for the Shenzhen index is projected at 10,100, following recent trendline breaks [7]