Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's stance on high tariffs indicates potential significant impacts on the U.S. economy, particularly the labor market, with a possibility of rising unemployment if tariffs are reinstated [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller expressed concerns that reinstating high tariffs could lead to layoffs and a significant increase in the unemployment rate [1]. - Waller noted that while the impact of tariffs may not be immediate before July, the full restoration of high tariffs could directly affect the U.S. job market [1][3]. - The potential for a sharp rise in unemployment may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts as a response to economic slowdown [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Flexibility - Waller's comments reflect the Federal Reserve's sensitivity to economic conditions, indicating a willingness to adjust monetary policy based on labor market performance [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester highlighted the need for clearer economic data before the Fed considers adjusting interest rates, adding uncertainty to future policy directions [5]. - The Fed's approach may remain patient, awaiting more definitive economic signals before making any decisions regarding interest rate changes [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On April 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel, 2506, closed at 125,770 yuan/ton. The nickel price showed a trend of first falling and then oscillating upwards this month [2]. - In the US, the business activity in April dropped to a 16 - month low, while prices rose significantly. The market anticipates the Fed's next rate cut may be in June, depending on employment and inflation data [2]. - In China, the Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, and various economic indicators showed a good recovery trend. It is expected that the Politburo meeting may introduce a series of incremental policies [3]. - Due to the unexpectedly high US counter - tariffs at the beginning of the month, Shanghai nickel dropped with a gap and is in a low - level upward repair phase this month. The spot trading of refined nickel was good this week. Nickel ore supply is loose, and nickel - iron prices have decreased. Sulfuric acid nickel prices are weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. Stainless steel export orders are recovering, but orders for exports to the US are nearly stagnant. The medium - and long - term demand improvement needs further data verification [4][46]. - Before obvious favorable policies are introduced, Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to show a range - bound trend, with limited downside space [47]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In April 2025, nickel showed an oscillating trend, first hitting the bottom and then rebounding. The nickel futures price opened lower with a gap due to US tariff shocks and then quickly recovered, with the lowest point around 115,000 [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - LME and SHFE nickel inventories have been rising steadily since the second half of 2023. As of late April 2025, SHFE inventory was 30,332 tons, and LME inventory was 203,850 tons. As of April 18, 2025, the nickel port inventory was 4.021 million tons [11][13]. - China's imports of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines fluctuate seasonally [13]. - The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have been weakly oscillating since the beginning of this year, and closed at around 126,310 yuan/ton in early April [18]. - As of April 18, 2025, the price of sulfuric acid nickel dropped to 29,280 yuan/ton [20]. - On April 24, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel - iron (8% - 12%) was 1,000 yuan/nickel [26]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - The stainless - steel futures price opened lower with a gap due to the tariff storm and is currently oscillating at a low level, with the oscillation range expected to be between 12,500 yuan/ton and 13,500 yuan/ton [30]. - As of April 18, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 501,600 tons and 190,400 tons respectively [32]. - The report also presented data on the production of power and energy - storage batteries, as well as new - energy vehicle production, but specific analysis of their impact on demand was not provided [37][42]. 3. Future Outlook - The market is in a low - level upward repair phase due to tariff impacts. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting. If strong stimulus policies are introduced, they may guide the short - and medium - term market trends [46]. - Before obvious favorable policies, Shanghai nickel and stainless steel will mainly show a range - bound trend with limited downside [47].

2025年以来，全球黄金市场在多重因素驱动下呈现出显著的上涨态势。从宏观经济环境到地缘政治风险，再到市场供需关系，黄金价格的波动不 仅反映了市场的不确定性，也为投资者提供了新的机遇。Macro Global Markets巨汇平台通过对当前市场动态的深入分析，为黄金投资者、市场分 析师、经济研究员及金融从业者提供全面的解读与策略建议。 一、全球经济疲软与避险需求的双重驱动 2025年一季度，全球经济呈现总供给与总需求同步走弱的特征，经济活动放缓的迹象愈发明显。在此背景下，投资者的风险偏好显著下降，资金 纷纷涌入黄金等避险资产，推动黄金及黄金ETF的需求和价格上涨。这种现象可以类比为"风暴中的灯塔"——当经济形势的不确定性加剧时，黄 金作为避险资产的吸引力如同黑暗中的光明，成为投资者寻求安全的首选。 与此同时，美元指数的持续走弱为金价提供了重要支撑。自4月以来，美元指数累计跌幅超过5.5%，创下2022年4月以来的新低。美元的疲软使得 以美元计价的黄金更具吸引力，进一步推动了资金流入黄金市场。这种现象可以理解为"跷跷板效应"——美元走弱，黄金则随之走高。 二、地缘政治风险与市场情绪的推波助澜 地缘政治风险始终是 ...

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：央行 MLF 操作，黄金强势依旧 中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。据新华网，有记者问：近 来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈判，甚至将会达成协议。你能否证实双方 有没有开始谈判？外交部发言人郭嘉昆说，这些都是假消息。"据我了解，中美 双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"特朗普考虑对华 关税分级方案。央视网援引《华尔街日报》报道，美方高级官员透露，特朗普政 府正考虑多种方案。中国央行 25 日将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，将实现净投放 5000 亿。本月有 1000 亿元 MLF 到期，在 4 月 25 日进行 6000 亿元 MLF 操作后， 将实现净投放 5000 亿元。3 月央行超量续作 MLF，实现净投放 630 亿元，是 2024 年 7 月以来 MLF 首次净投放，展现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、集运指数 原油：SC 上涨 1%。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产 量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。 他还表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising gold prices driven by increased risk aversion, inflation concerns, and changes in the dollar's credibility, suggesting that while short-term volatility may increase, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive [1][2][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Key variables supporting the rise in gold prices include risk aversion, inflation, and the dollar's status [2]. - The current global economic downturn and trade tensions have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a decline in various asset prices, with gold benefiting as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Inflation, while currently less impactful due to a recent drop in the U.S. CPI to 2.4% in March, could become a significant factor if it rebounds in the coming quarters [2][3]. Group 2: Dollar Credibility and Long-term Trends - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and rapid debt accumulation have weakened investor confidence in the dollar, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Long-term projections indicate substantial growth potential for gold prices, driven by inflation, central bank gold purchases, and U.S. debt issues, with models suggesting a significant upward trend over the next decade [3]. Group 3: Short-term Volatility and Risks - Despite a favorable macro environment for gold, the rapid increase in prices (over 25% since the beginning of the year) raises concerns about potential short-term volatility and corrections [4][5]. - Historical precedents show that even in favorable conditions, gold prices can experience significant declines, indicating that price fluctuations are inevitable [6]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, whether it leads to recession or stagflation, adds complexity to predicting gold price movements [7][8]. - Regardless of the economic scenario, gold is expected to maintain its value, benefiting from its safe-haven status during recessions and its inflation-hedging properties during stagflation [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-04-17原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2505： 1.基本面：美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，美联储将等待更多有关经济走向的数据出炉后再决定是否以 及如何调整利率，同时他认为最近的市场波动是对特朗普政府关税政策急剧转变的理性反应；美国对 伊朗石油出口实施新制裁，其中包括对一家中国的小型炼油厂实施制裁，美国财政部声明表示，特朗 普此举将加大对进口伊朗石油的中国企业的压力；中性 2.基差：4月16日，阿曼原油现货价为66.76美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为65.91美元/桶，基差 30.17元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至4月11日当周API原油库存增加240.2万桶，预期减少101.7万桶；美国至4月11日当 周EIA库存增加51.5万桶，预期增加50.7万桶；库欣地区库存至4月11日当周减少65.4万桶，前值增加 68.1万桶； ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The new tariffs proposed by Trump could generate additional revenue of $600-700 billion per year, requiring the average effective tariff rate (AETR) to rise from 2.2% to 21%[7] - If the tariffs are fully borne by households, the average loss per American household could be $5,400, approximately 5% of median household income[9] - If the tariffs are shared equally between households and corporations, household income could decline by 2.5% and corporate after-tax profits could drop by 15%[9] Group 2: Economic Objectives and Comparisons - The economic objectives of the new tariffs include increasing federal revenue and promoting the return of manufacturing, differing from the 2018 focus on trade balance[10] - By Q4 2024, manufacturing's share of non-residential fixed asset investment is expected to rise to 5.7%, up from 2.7% five years ago[10] Group 3: Economic Growth and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% due to tariff impacts, while only slightly adjusting the unemployment rate[12] - As of April 7, 2025, S&P 500 EPS forecasts have been revised down by 4.1% for Q1 and 2.5% for Q2, indicating a cautious market outlook[16] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Fed's monetary policy aims to maintain a 2% inflation rate, with actual wages and long-term inflation expectations being critical factors in policy decisions[21] - As of April 7, 2025, the 5-year inflation swap rate is at 2.3%, indicating stable long-term inflation expectations[23] Group 5: Asset Allocation and Market Trends - High tariffs are expected to create both demand and supply shocks, influencing asset allocation strategies, with potential shifts favoring commodities over financial assets in a stagflation scenario[26] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury term premium is currently at 43 basis points, significantly lower than historical averages, indicating reduced demand for U.S. debt amid tariff-induced inflation risks[29]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the importance of macroeconomic analysis in understanding global economic trends and the role of financial services in supporting the real economy [2][12]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Chen Dafei, the Chief Macro Analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Research, has 8 years of experience in the securities industry, focusing on global macroeconomics, monetary policy, and liquidity [3]. - Chen's career includes positions at Dongfang Securities and Guojin Securities, where he led macro research teams before joining Shenwan Hongyuan Research in August 2024 [3]. Group 2: Research Insights - The significance of overseas macro research has grown since 2018, particularly due to the evolving US-China trade relations and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a resurgence of inflation [5][6]. - Chen emphasizes a paradigm shift from a "low interest rate era" to a "high volatility era," where monetary policy becomes crucial in managing inflation [5]. - His research methodology involves a unified approach of "facts-theory-history," focusing on current facts, theoretical understanding, and historical comparisons to deepen insights [9]. Group 3: Professional Development - For newcomers in the industry, a genuine passion for research is essential, as it drives continuous learning and discovery [10]. - Deep thinking skills, supported by a broad knowledge base, are critical for effective economic research [10]. - Proficiency in AI tools is increasingly necessary to enhance research efficiency, paralleling the importance of traditional office software [11]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives - The relationship between finance and the real economy is characterized by both unity and opposition, with financial services playing a vital role in promoting high-quality economic development [12]. - Financial systems exhibit pro-cyclical behavior, which can extend economic expansion but may also lead to instability during downturns [12]. - Long-term economic growth is driven by technological innovation, with finance playing a crucial role in supporting research and development [12]. Group 5: Cultural Influence - The integration of party-building culture within Shenwan Hongyuan Research enhances personal growth and professional thinking, aligning with the broader strategic goals of the organization [14].

编者荐语： 日本经济新闻社与金融时报2015年11月合并成为同一家媒体集团。同样于19世纪创刊的日本和英国的两 家报社形成的同盟正以"高品质、最强大的经济新闻学"为旗帜，推进共同特辑等广泛领域的协作。作为 其中的一环，两家报社的中文网之间实现文章互换。 以下文章来源于FT中文网 ，作者吴金铎 FT中文网 . 英国《金融时报》集团旗下唯一的中文商业财经网站，旨在为中国商业菁英和决策者们提供每日不可或 缺的商业财经资讯、深度分析以及评论。 文丨吴金铎 特朗普再次就任总统后基本兑现了他竞选时期的关税措施，但也推出了意料之外的关税。关 税扰动不仅直接影响了全球进出口贸易和金融市场，也间接影响了美国的通胀预期，进而影 响美联储的货币政策路径。关税如何影响美国的通胀？怎样评估美国对华加征关税的通胀效 应及可持续性？ 关税的通胀传导路径 通胀数据（CPI和PPI）是一个百分比统计值，同比或环比的计算均基于基期或前值，因而若 美国对进口商品一次性全面加征关税，则关税对进口价格的影响是一次性的。若美国对进口 商品加征的关税是滚动式，比如逐月或者逐季加征，那么关税对进口商品和通胀的影响就是 多次叠加。例如，美国对外国进口商品一次 ...