Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver futures are experiencing a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 3.99% to 18,133.00 yuan per kilogram as of the latest report [1] - The iShares Silver Trust, the largest silver ETF globally, has seen a reduction in holdings by 84.6 tons, bringing the total to 16,305.96 tons, reflecting a decrease in investor interest [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures inventory has decreased to 796,000 contracts, down approximately 100,000 contracts from the previous week, indicating that some funds are exiting the market [2] Group 2 - Analysts from Hengyin Futures suggest that the ongoing peace efforts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite slow progress, are contributing to a market correction due to profit-taking by long positions after previous gains [4] - Tianfeng Futures advises caution in trading at the current high levels of silver, recommending risk management and opportunistic buying, while emphasizing the need to monitor signals from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and global industrial activity recovery [4]

Group 1 - Trump has intensified his conflict with the Federal Reserve, considering a lawsuit against Chairman Powell for "serious misconduct" related to the budget overruns of the Fed's headquarters renovation project, which escalated from an initial budget of $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion due to issues like asbestos handling and soil contamination [2] - The underlying conflict between Trump and Powell centers on monetary policy, with Trump criticizing Powell for being slow to lower interest rates and even threatening to fire him [2] - The selection process for the next Fed Chair is underway, with Powell set to leave in May next year, and Trump is actively interviewing candidates, expected to announce a new nominee in January [2] Group 2 - Market participants suggest that the new Fed Chair could be chosen from former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, a critic of the Fed, or Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, who supports Trump's economic agenda and is likely to favor a more accommodative monetary policy [2] - Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan emphasized the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence, warning that a lack of independence could lead to market repercussions [3] - Moynihan expressed concerns about lowering interest rates too much, arguing that returning mortgage rates to 3% could hinder economic growth and merely offset recession impacts, contradicting Trump's view that lower rates would stimulate the economy [3]

| 沪锡2602四 | | 323010 -5.65% | 339467 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 氢化铝2605圆 | 2747 | -1.47% | 473908 | | 铝合金2603网 | 21475 | -0.49% | 6510 | | 国际铜2602网 | 87320 | -3.06% | 11459 | | 工业硅2605四 | 8875 | 0.62% | 116509 | | 文华商品 | 164.77 | -0.51 | -0.31% | | 行情 | UHD 资料库 | 发现 | 我 | 本报记者 王宁 12月30日，国内期货市场金属板块大面积低开，沪银、沪金出现较大程度跌幅，铂和钯期货主力合约盘中更是跌停；同 时，沪铜、沪铝、沪锌、沪铅和沪锡等金属品种，也出现不同程度的下探。 分析人士表示，近日金属板块波动较大，包括白银和黄金等品种更是出现单边行情，但目前利好基本面的因素缺乏实质性 支撑，加之资金有获利了结可能，国内交易所也同步采取相关措施，贵金属等品种出现明显回调。 | 10:01 | | | ·Il ? CD | | | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report focuses on various financial and commodity markets, including macroeconomics, foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and commodities [1][2][3] - The overseas market shows strong GDP growth in the US, while the domestic market emphasizes expanding domestic demand and implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies [2] - The end - of - year market is affected by factors such as low liquidity, holiday effects, and policy expectations [4] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - The RMB exchange rate is expected to end the year stably after a temporary halt in its sharp rise. The focus is on the effect of exchange - rate - stabilizing policies [3][4] - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0098 on the previous trading day, down 13 basis points, and the mid - price was 7.0331, up 27 basis points [3] Group 3: Stocks - The stock index faces pressure to break through at high levels and is expected to fluctuate and accumulate momentum in the short term. After the New Year, there is a greater probability of a spring rally [4][5] - The CSI 300 index closed down 0.38 on the previous trading day, and the trading volume of the two markets decreased slightly [4] Group 4: Bonds - The bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term. Although the bond futures fell sharply on Monday, the view is to hold mid - term long positions and intervene in short - term long positions on dips [5][6] - The bond futures opened sharply lower on Monday and then fluctuated narrowly. The overnight funds were loose, but the cross - year funds were tight [5] Group 5: Commodities - Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices dropped significantly due to factors such as profit - taking, exchange risk - control measures, and pre - holiday risk aversion. The long - term bullish foundation remains, but short - term risks are high [7][8][9] - Gold and silver prices also experienced a sharp decline. The short - term is weak, and the long - term is still optimistic. It is recommended to reduce positions or clear positions in the short term [10][11][12] Group 6: Commodities - Base Metals - Copper prices fell due to pre - holiday profit - taking. The short - term adjustment does not change the long - term upward trend, and it is recommended to watch more and act less before the holiday [13][15] - Aluminum faces short - term adjustment pressure, while alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up performance [15][16] - Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, and tin are expected to fluctuate widely, and lithium carbonate is recommended to focus on long - term value and avoid short - term risks [17][20][21] Group 7: Commodities - Black Metals - Steel prices such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with support from the cost side and pressure from weak demand [28][29] - Iron ore prices fluctuate with high supply and rigid demand balancing each other [30] - Coking coal and coke are facing a fourth - round price cut, and the future trend depends on supply and demand changes [31][33] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited [34][35] Group 8: Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - Pulp prices fell due to market sentiment, while offset paper prices rose due to cost support. It is recommended to wait and see [37][39][40] - LPG has near - term support but is under pressure in the medium - term [41][42] - PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips face a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. It is necessary to pay attention to supply and demand changes and cost factors [43][45][48] - Methanol is recommended to buy at low prices, while PP, PE, pure benzene - styrene, and other products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [49][53][60] - Rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [61][64][65] - Logs are expected to fluctuate without clear upward or downward drivers, and propylene is recommended to pay attention to marginal changes [68][69][70] Group 9: Agricultural Products - The supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified. The long - term can be bullish, but the short - term is based on fundamentals [72][73][74] - Oilseeds show a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to try a long - short spread strategy with a light position [75][76] - Oils are expected to fluctuate, with palm oil being relatively strong in the sector [77][78] - Cotton prices may experience a short - term correction but have long - term upward potential [79][80] - Sugar prices face increasing upward pressure in the short term [81][82] - Eggs are in a situation of over - capacity in the long term, and it is recommended to participate in a long - position rebound with a light position [83] - Apples face short - term upward pressure, and it is recommended to wait for a retracement to go long [84][85] - Red dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to pre - holiday procurement [86][87]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals are in an accelerated upward phase, but may face short - term significant corrections in January next year due to the Fed "holding steady", yet this does not mark the end of the current upward cycle for gold and silver [4] - The Trump administration has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policies under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially steps down [4] - Currently, the prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and not open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 940 - 1001 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 15666 - 18658 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Categories Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold dropped 4.00% to 975.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver dropped 8.74% to 17237.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4344.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 71.20 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 98.01 [2] - Trump considered suing Fed Chairman Powell and thought he should resign. The new Fed Chairman's candidate will be announced in January [2] Policy Expectations - The selection of the new Fed Chairman has led the market to price in an aggressive easing policy by the Fed next year. Although the current Fed officials only expect one 25bps interest - rate cut next year, the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy are focused on the new chairman's selection. Two Trump - camp members are likely candidates, and both support Trump's desired interest - rate cut policy. The Fed is likely to conduct more aggressive interest - rate cuts in the second half of next year, which has pushed the international silver price to a new record high [3] Data Summary of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price decreased by 4.64% to 4350.20 dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 71.84% to 30.78 million lots, and open interest increased by 8.91% to 47.11 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price dropped by 3.21% to 4337.05 dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's closing price fell by 0.90% to 1007.18 yuan/gram, trading volume rose by 56.72% to 50.22 million lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.15% to 33.76 million lots [6] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price decreased by 10.08% to 71.64 dollars/ounce, open interest decreased by 1.19% to 15.29 million lots, and inventory dropped by 0.13% to 13969 tons; LBMA silver's closing price increased by 3.40% to 74.64 dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's closing price fell by 0.62% to 18205.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose by 70.96% to 493.06 million lots, and open interest decreased by 6.77% to 72.23 million lots [6] Price Structure and Spread - **Gold**: On December 29, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 28.52 yuan/gram (126.53 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 29.13 yuan/gram (129.47 dollars/ounce) [53] - **Silver**: On December 29, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 2288.16 yuan/kilogram (10.17 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 2569.09 yuan/kilogram (11.42 dollars/ounce) [53][62]

Group 1 - The latest spot price of London gold is $4355.41 per ounce, reflecting an increase of $23.76 per ounce, or 0.55% from the previous trading day [1] - The highest price during the day reached $4355.92 per ounce, while the lowest dipped to $4322.53 per ounce [1] - The previous closing price was $4331.65 per ounce, and the opening price today was $4329.39 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year in early December, signaling a "pause" in monetary policy actions [2] - Analysts expect the upcoming meeting minutes to indicate that further rate cuts will only occur if necessary, reflecting a cautious stance among officials [2] - There is a division among officials regarding inflation and growth risks, with some advocating for a cautious approach due to inflation concerns, while others focus on the labor market and support maintaining a loose monetary policy [2] Group 3 - The daily trend for London gold is weakening, currently in a repair phase, with a significant bearish candle formed yesterday [3] - The gold price has broken below the upward channel's lower boundary and is now in a downward channel, indicating limited rebound potential [3] - The market shows a strong wait-and-see sentiment, as reflected by a significant decrease in trading volume compared to the previous day [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, has experienced a significant surge in 2023, with gold reaching a historic high of $4500 per ounce, driven by various economic and geopolitical factors [1]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has been a key driver, with expectations of a shift from tightening to easing, culminating in a rate cut in September 2023, which ignited the gold rally [2]. - Geopolitical and economic risks have increased, with ongoing tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. economic pressures, leading investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with annual acquisitions doubling from 508 tons (2013-2021) to 1058 tons (2022-2024), indicating strong demand for gold [2]. - The acceleration of "de-dollarization" has heightened the demand for gold, as the U.S. dollar index has fallen nearly 10% this year, raising concerns about the dollar's creditworthiness [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investment sentiment towards gold has surged, with global gold ETFs seeing a net inflow of approximately $40 billion in the first half of 2025, and domestic gold ETF assets rising from 73 billion yuan to 236.1 billion yuan, a 223% increase [3]. - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, predict continued bullish trends for gold, with potential prices reaching $4900 per ounce by 2026, indicating a possible upside of 0.3% to 11.5% from current levels [3]. - The World Gold Council suggests that if geopolitical and economic conditions remain unfavorable, gold prices are likely to continue rising in the coming year [3].

Bond markets wait for minutes of the Fed's December meeting, to be released tomorrow, as the last week of the year gets underway.The central bank cut rates in that meeting with unusually high disagreement among officials, while signaling a possible hold in January, which markets are pricing in.November pending home sales data is due at 10 a.m. ET. ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. non-farm payroll report, originally scheduled for release on December 29, has been postponed to January 9, 2026, due to delays caused by the government shutdown in October and November [1][5] - The absence of the non-farm payroll report this week is expected to result in lower volatility for the U.S. dollar and precious metals compared to traditional non-farm weeks [1][5] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday, January 3, which is a significant event for market participants as it may influence the direction of the U.S. dollar [5][11] Group 2 - Major global exchanges will be closed on January 1, 2026, for New Year's Day, including the New York Stock Exchange and the CME, which will halt trading in various futures contracts [3][4][8] - On December 31, 2025, many exchanges will also have early closures or suspend trading, but the New York Stock Exchange will operate normally, indicating that the U.S. stock market will not be affected by the New Year's Eve [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The mid - term logic of the overall rise of precious metals remains unchanged. However, due to the recent continuous and rapid price increase and significant market fluctuations, silver prices may deviate significantly from fundamental factors. There is a need to be vigilant against the risk of technical corrections. This week, opportunities for the repair of the gold - silver ratio can be focused on. The London gold is expected to face resistance at $4500 per ounce and support at $4300 per ounce. The London silver is expected to have resistance at $80 per ounce and support at $70 per ounce [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1007.180 yuan per gram, a decrease of 9.1 yuan. The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 18201 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 107 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 166022 hands, a decrease of 14690 hands. The main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 5670 hands, a decrease of 3274 hands. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold is 345222 hands, an increase of 120634 hands. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai silver is 1442771 hands, an increase of 457513 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold is 97704 kilograms, an increase of 12 kilograms. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver is 796739 kilograms, a decrease of 22692 kilograms [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1004.00 yuan, a decrease of 3.00 yuan. The spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 19100.00 yuan, an increase of 623.00 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is 899.00 yuan per gram, a decrease of 3.18 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is 730.00 yuan per gram, an increase of 6.12 yuan [1] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The holding of SPDR gold ETF is 1071.13 tons, an increase of 2.86 tons. The holding of SLV silver ETF is 16390.56 tons, a decrease of 56.41 tons. The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 233978.00 contracts, an increase of 10092.00 contracts. The non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC is 36352.00 contracts, a decrease of 8357.00 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.07 tons, an increase of 86.24 tons. The total supply of silver in the year is 32056.00 tons, an increase of 482.00 tons. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1257.90 tons, an increase of 174.15 tons. The total demand for silver in the year is 35716.00 tons, a decrease of 491.00 tons [1] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.03, an increase of 0.12. The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 1.91, unchanged. The VIX volatility index is 13.60, an increase of 0.13. The CBOE gold volatility index is 25.78, an increase of 1.97. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 0.00, unchanged. The gold - silver ratio is 0.00, unchanged [1] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky held a meeting on the proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan". Trump said that both Zelensky and Russian President Putin hope to reach a peace agreement, and Putin is "serious" about promoting peace. A "very strong" security agreement will be reached between the US and Ukraine, and there is no deadline for relevant negotiations. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 18.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 81.2%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 46.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 44.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.5% [1] 3.6 Market Performance and Reasons - The intraday fluctuations in the precious metals market significantly increased today. In the early trading session, the Shanghai silver main contract once hit the daily limit, but then due to the pressure of long - position profit - taking, the prices of gold and silver quickly fell in the afternoon, and the intraday gains were completely erased. Previously, due to the continuous tightness of physical inventories, the short - squeeze sentiment in the silver market continued, the long - position atmosphere was strong, and some short - positions were forced to exit, further pushing up the silver price. However, the accumulated profit - taking positions also increased the risk of correction, and today's intraday adjustment can be regarded as the concentrated release of this risk [1] 3.7 Macro - Level Situation - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter of the US reached a two - year high, and the core PCE price index met expectations, indicating that inflation pressure has eased. Weak employment data, stable inflation, and the market's expectation that the Fed will maintain loose liquidity and may even expand its balance sheet jointly strengthen the macro - logic of a looser monetary policy. In this environment, the US dollar index is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [1] 3.8 Key Focus Points - On December 30, 2025, at 22:00, pay attention to the year - on - year change of the US FHFA housing price index. On January 1, 2026, at 21:45, pay attention to the US Markit manufacturing PMI [1]