1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The HC2601 contract decreased with increasing positions on Wednesday. Overall, iron ore prices are under pressure and the support from steel - making costs is weakening. Meanwhile, tariff disturbances will continue to affect market sentiment in the short term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish with oscillations, and attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,212 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the position volume is 1469405 lots, up 17676 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 53,264 lots, down 12323 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread is - 11 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 99691 tons, up 39913 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 178 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou it is 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it is 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin it is 3,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 98 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 781 yuan/wet ton, down 10 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 14,028.67 million tons, up 31.32 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 42.55 million tons, up 3.49 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 650.57 million tons, down 12.54 million tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei is 127.6 million tons, up 7.94 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.25%, down 0.02 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.53%, down 0.10 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 323.29 million tons, down 1.40 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 82.58%, down 0.37 percentage points. The weekly inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 83.60 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 329.30 million tons, up 29.92 million tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 991.70 million tons, up 90.70 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 327.60 million vehicles, up 46.06 million vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 322.60 million vehicles, up 36.94 million vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 1,681.88 million units, down 377.77 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 945.32 million units, up 72.25 million units. The monthly output of household washing machines is 1,013.18 million units, up 135.75 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In September 2025, the national ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month, and rising 0.1% month - on - month. From January to September, the average ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.8% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on the industrial economic operation of some provinces, emphasizing the need to intensify the implementation of a new round of ten key industry stable - growth work plans [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, in - plant inventory and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 本报告版权仅为我公司所有 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/10/15 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1151.00 | -2.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1642.00 | -12.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 825396.00 | -1222.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 51105.00 | +645.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -94111.00 | -1185.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -4165.00 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid escalating Sino - US game, the A - share market has shifted to a defensive stance. Short - term stock market is expected to fluctuate weakly, while in the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market has risen in the risk - aversion mode [2][3]. - For precious metals, gold and silver showed mixed performance, and short - term volatility may intensify. The long - term view on precious metal prices remains positive, but caution is advised at present [4][5]. - Regarding copper, due to the intensifying Sino - US game, copper prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Although Rio Tinto's production increased in Q3, the global mine supply remains tight, and the cost still supports copper prices in the medium term [6][7]. - For aluminum, with attention on trade policy trends, the aluminum market's fluctuations will expand. The fundamental support is good, and prices are expected to remain favorable but with large fluctuations [8][9]. - Alumina is dominated by bearish factors and should be treated as a short - position asset due to supply pressure from long - term contracts, production methods, and imports [10]. - Zinc prices will continue to be weak as both macro and fundamental supports decline marginally. Pay attention to LME inventory and structural changes [11]. - Lead prices will be adjusted as fundamental pressure increases marginally, with supply increasing and consumption remaining flat [12]. - Tin prices will have a short - term high - level adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited due to strong supply - side support. Focus on the support of the 10 - day moving average [14]. - Industrial silicon will have a weak oscillation due to insufficient demand resilience. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from different sectors is lackluster [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices will oscillate weakly. There is a possibility of further decline, and short - term attention should be paid to the support strength at previous lows [17]. - Nickel prices are at the lower end of the oscillation range and are expected to oscillate and rise. The macro environment is dovish, and although the market is cold, the spot resources are scarce [18][19]. - For soda ash and glass, due to poor post - holiday demand, prices will oscillate weakly [20]. - For steel products (螺卷), spot trading is stable, but futures prices are weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [21][22]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate and adjust. Port inventory has increased, and although demand is high, the upward space is limited [23]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, due to abundant supply and weakening sentiment, prices will oscillate and decline in the short term. Pay attention to the support range below [24][25]. - Palm oil prices will have a wide - range oscillation. Oil prices are weak, and the market is waiting for production and demand data and the progress of Indonesia's biodiesel policy [26][27]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts on October 15, 2025, including SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [28] 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - For copper, on October 14, the SHFE copper main contract price decreased, and the LME copper price also declined. SHFE copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged, while LME inventory decreased. The spot price increased, and the LME copper premium decreased [29]. - For nickel, on October 14, the SHFE nickel main contract price decreased, and the LME nickel price also declined. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory increased [29]. - For zinc, on October 14, the SHFE zinc main contract price decreased, and the LME zinc price declined. SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory increased [30]. - For lead, on October 14, the SHFE lead main contract price decreased, and the LME lead price declined. SHFE lead warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and LME inventory increased [30]. - For aluminum, on October 14, the SHFE aluminum continuous - third contract price decreased, and the LME aluminum price declined. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased [30]. - For alumina, on October 14, the SHFE alumina main contract price decreased, and the national alumina spot average price also declined. SHFE warehouse inventory increased significantly [30]. - For tin, on October 14, the SHFE tin main contract price decreased, and the LME tin price declined. SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory remained unchanged [31]. - For precious metals, on October 14, the prices of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver remained mostly unchanged, with some changes in inventory and the gold - silver ratio [31]. - For steel products, on October 14, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased, and there were changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [33]. - For iron ore, on October 14, the iron ore main contract price decreased, and there were changes in spot prices, basis, and freight rates [33]. - For coke and coking coal, on October 14, the coke main contract price increased, and the coking coal main contract price also increased. There were changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [34]. - For lithium carbonate, on October 14, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased slightly, and there were changes in spot prices and spreads [34]. - For industrial silicon, on October 14, the industrial silicon main contract price decreased, and the average prices of different grades in the East China region remained mostly unchanged [34]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, on October 14, the prices of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal futures decreased, and there were changes in import prices, spot prices, and spreads [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 14, the capital market maintained a loose stance; the bond market recovered; the main indices of the convertible bond market declined collectively, with most individual convertible bonds falling; yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally decreased, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang chaired a symposium for experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation, emphasizing counter - cyclical adjustment, expanding domestic demand, building an industrial ecosystem, and supporting foreign trade and investment [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipping and other industries, announcing counter - measures [4]. - The central bank increased the volume of 6 - month term repurchase operations, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan in October [4]. - The central bank's monetary policy department will maintain exchange - rate stability and prevent over - adjustment risks [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank issued rules for central treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tenders [6]. 3.1.2 International News - Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a potential rate cut this month and that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing an end, warning of a deteriorating labor - market outlook [7]. 3.1.3 Commodities - International crude - oil futures prices turned down, and international natural - gas prices continued to fall on October 14 [8]. 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On October 14, the central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On October 14, the capital market remained loose, with DR001 rising 0.10bp to 1.314% and DR007 falling 1.81bp to 1.431% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - **Spot - Bond Yield Trends**: On October 14, affected by the stock - market decline, loose capital, and trade - friction uncertainties, the bond market recovered. Yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year policy - bank bonds declined [15]. - **Bond Tender Results**: Multiple bonds, including those of CDB and Treasury bonds, were tendered on October 14, with details such as issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples provided [17]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On October 14, no credit - bond transaction prices deviated by more than 10% [18]. - **Credit - Bond Events**: Country Garden will hold a creditor's meeting for overseas - debt restructuring on November 5 [19]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible - Bond Indices**: On October 14, A - share indices and convertible - bond indices fell. The convertible - bond market turnover increased, and most individual convertible bonds declined [20]. - **Convertible - Bond Tracking**: Several companies had announcements regarding debt restructuring, lawsuits, cancellation of bond issuance, and early redemptions [22][23]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On October 14, yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally decreased, and yield spreads between different maturities widened [24][25]. - **European Bond Market**: Yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined on October 14 [27]. - **Prices of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds as of the close on October 14 are presented, including the top 10 gainers and losers [29].

最近朋友圈都在问：经济到底是"寒风阵阵"还是"春意渐浓"？答案藏在一场高层经济座谈会里。 专家和企业家们一致认为，中国经济不是"熬过去"，而是"走出来"顶住压力，稳中有进，亮点频出。首先，要学会跳出"短期焦虑"。别把经济当百米冲刺 看，中国正在跑的是"高质量马拉松"。无论是五年规划的稳步推进，还是人流、物流、资金流的持续活跃，都说明市场的"基本盘"依然坚实。其次，政策方 向也越来越清晰：逆周期调节要加力提效，财政、金融、投资政策精准发力，不搞"大水漫灌"；扩内需、强循环，让消费更活、投资更实、创新更快。产业 生态也要"去内卷、增协同"，加速科技成果转化，形成真正的"创新生态圈"。一句话总结：稳不是躺平，进也不是冒进，而是在不确定的世界里做确定的自 己。这就是中国经济的底气所在。未来的赛道属于那些坚持长期主义、苦练内功的人。信心比黄金更贵，行动比口号更强。（唐加文，笔名金观平；本文成 稿后，经AI审阅校对） 《经济"下半场"，稳中提速的中国逻辑》——从最新高层座谈会看中国经济的"逆周期打法"与"长期主义"信号 ...

10月15日，A股三大指数冲高回落，截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.10%，创业板指涨0.22%。 | 上证指数 深证成指 | | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3869.25 12895.25 | | 1498.56 | | +4.02 +0.10% +0.14 0.00% +14.37 +0.97% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1402.56 | 2962.56 | 6211.28 | | -7.74 -0.55% +6.58 +0.22% +7.45 +0.12% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4537.73 | 7185.23 | 5449.50 | | -1.33 -0.03% -9.62 -9.62 -0.13% -2.09 -2.09 -0.04% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证红利 | | 7392.08 | 5640.03 | 5603.23 | | +18.92 +0.26% | -0.10 0.00% | +6.94 +0.12% | | 万得全A涨跌分布 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade events are volatile, with China taking a strong stance in the trade war, leading to a change from morning's volume - shrinking decline to afternoon's volume - expanding decline in the market. The market shows a defensive trend, with high - priced stocks falling and low - priced leading stocks rising. Hot sectors are in adjustment, and cyclical sectors are expected to stabilize and rebound. The strategy of earning basis spread can be gradually implemented [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Trade Situation**: Domestically, the Premier emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical regulation, expand domestic demand, and improve the industrial ecosystem. Internationally, the US implemented final measures for a 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, and China countered by banning transactions with 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urged the US to correct its wrong practices [1] - **Index Adjustment**: In the spot market, A - share indexes declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62% to 3865.23 points and the ChiNext Index down 3.99%. Banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, while communication, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2.6 trillion yuan. Overseas, Powell hinted at a possible halt in balance - sheet shrinkage and a potential 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month. US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.44% to 46270.46 points [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of IF, IH, and IM rebounded. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - Due to China's strong stance in the trade war, the market showed a defensive trend. High - priced stocks continued to fall, low - priced leading stocks rebounded, and cyclical sectors are expected to stabilize. The strategy of earning basis spread can be gradually implemented [3] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][10][12] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23, down 0.62%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11, down 2.54%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2955.98, down 3.99%. Other major indexes also showed varying degrees of decline [14] - **Market Volume and Margin Trading**: Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 188092, an increase of 19813, and the open interest was 284388, an increase of 1029 [17] - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IM rebounded. For instance, the basis of IF's current - month contract was 1.34, an increase of 9.72 [38] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The report provides data on the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, including the spread between different contract months such as the next - month and current - month, and the next - season and current - month [47][48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatility with a downward bias [2] - Rebar: Volatility with a downward bias [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatility [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Volatility [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Upward [4] - Gold: Bullish volatility [4] - Silver: Bullish volatility [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [5] - Pulp: Consolidation at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Volatility [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [5] - Soybean meal: Volatility with a downward bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Volatility with a downward bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Volatility with a downward bias [5] - Soybean No. 1: Volatility [6] - Live pigs: Volatility with a downward bias [6] - Rubber: Wide-range volatility [6] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatility [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by trade frictions, supply concerns, and policy factors. Steel demand in October is crucial for the iron ore and steel markets. The coal and coke markets face supply and demand adjustments, and attention should be paid to low-suction opportunities and policy implementation [2]. - The stock index market is affected by economic data, international trade relations, and policy factors. Market risk aversion has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and control positions for long positions in stock index futures [4]. - The bond market has seen a slight rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bond futures with a light position [4]. - The precious metals market is influenced by factors such as interest rates, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases. Gold and silver are expected to show bullish volatility [4]. - The forest products market has a small supply peak after the holiday, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price of logs is expected to have increased volatility, while pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and policy. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatility pattern, and attention should be paid to soybean planting in Brazil and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [5]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade relations. The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and live pigs are expected to show different trends, and attention should be paid to relevant factors such as planting progress and market demand [5][6]. - The soft commodities market has a complex supply and demand situation, and the price of rubber is expected to show wide-range volatility [6]. - The polyester market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are expected to show different trends, and attention should be paid to relevant factors such as supply and demand and cost fluctuations [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Trade frictions and supply concerns have affected market sentiment. The short-term iron ore price is expected to remain volatile. The key lies in steel demand in October. If steel demand is lower than expected, it may lead to a negative feedback loop [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations and supply factors have suppressed the market. The supply of coking coal has eased, while the demand for coke remains high. The first round of price increases for coke has been implemented, but the second round has basically failed. Attention should be paid to low-suction opportunities and policy implementation [2]. - **Rebar**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The key lies in the demand recovery in October. The market has a short-term replenishment demand, but the demand is difficult to improve fundamentally. The steel market is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [2]. - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern of glass has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The demand is dragged down by the real estate market. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to demand recovery in the peak season and production capacity policies [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index market is affected by economic data, international trade relations, and policy factors. Market risk aversion has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and control positions for long positions in stock index futures [4]. - **Treasury bond futures**: The bond market has seen a slight rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bond futures with a light position [4]. Precious Metals Market - **Gold and silver**: The precious metals market is influenced by factors such as interest rates, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases. Gold and silver are expected to show bullish volatility. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate policy and geopolitical risks [4]. Forest Products Market - **Logs**: After the holiday, the supply of logs will have a small peak, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price of logs is expected to have increased volatility. Attention should be paid to market supply and demand and price trends [5]. - **Pulp**: The price of pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom. The cost support is weak, and the demand improvement needs to be verified. Currently, paper mills purchase raw materials based on rigid demand [5]. Oil and Fat Market - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and policy. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatility pattern. Attention should be paid to soybean planting in Brazil and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [5]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean No. 2, soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal**: The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade relations. The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to show different trends. Attention should be paid to relevant factors such as planting progress and market demand [5][6]. - **Live pigs**: The supply of live pigs is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to market supply and demand and price trends [6]. Soft Commodities Market - **Rubber**: The supply and demand situation of rubber is complex. The price is expected to show wide-range volatility. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and weather conditions [6]. Polyester Market - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: The polyester market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are expected to show different trends. Attention should be paid to relevant factors such as supply and demand and cost fluctuations [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After high-level fluctuations in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again, with a high probability of maintaining a bullish trend [2] - In the short term, due to Sino - US trade issues, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase [2] - Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market [2] - In the fourth quarter, considering the potential intensification of growth - stabilizing policies and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.87% to - 1.19%. Trading volumes varied, and changes in open interest showed a mixed pattern, with some decreasing and some increasing [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts had minor changes, with small increases or decreases. Trading volumes and open - interest changes also showed different trends [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased significantly, with declines of up to - 2.99%. Trading volumes were relatively large, and open - interest changes were mixed [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines between - 1.78% and - 2.18%. Trading volumes were substantial, and open - interest changes were a combination of increases and decreases [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for some contracts changed compared to the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes all showed different degrees of decline, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having relatively larger declines [1] - **Industry Indexes**: In the CSI 300 industry indexes, the main consumption and real - estate finance sectors had positive growth rates, while the pharmaceutical and information technology sectors had negative growth rates [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis values of different contracts relative to their corresponding indexes changed compared to the previous two days [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others showed declines, while information on overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and S&P was also provided [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem [2] - China countered the US' 301 investigation on its maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors by restricting transactions with relevant US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean [2] - Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month [2] - The central bank's monetary policy department stated that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable in the long - term [2] 6. Industry Information - Relevant authorities may issue a document to regulate photovoltaic production capacity, including restrictions on capacity utilization and a ban on new capacity [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will support energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformations in key industries [2] - In September, China's automobile production and sales reached new highs, with significant year - on - year growth, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also set records [2] - Shanghai aims to boost the intelligent terminal industry, targeting a total scale of over 300 billion yuan by 2027 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For most commodities, the market shows various trends and risks, and different trading strategies are recommended according to the specific situation of each commodity [5][7][9] - Some commodities have experienced significant price changes, and investors are advised to take corresponding profit - taking or risk - control measures [8][10] 3. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Previous trading day: Treasury bond futures opened low and closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.34%, 0.11%, 0.10%, and 0.02% respectively [5] - Market situation: The central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The IMF slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for this year. The macro - economy has stable data but weak recovery momentum, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6] - Strategy: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6] Stock Index Futures - Previous trading day: Stock index futures showed mixed performance, with the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM falling by 1.14%, 0.09%, 2.93%, and 2.16% respectively [7] - Market situation: The domestic economy is stable but has weak recovery momentum, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market [7] - Strategy: It is expected that volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8] Precious Metals - Previous trading day: The closing price of the gold main contract was 938.98, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 949.76; the closing price of the silver main contract was 11,533, up 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11,732 [9] - Market situation: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases and the expected Fed rate cuts also support precious metals. However, the recent increase has been significant [9] - Strategy: Previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated for profit [10] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Previous trading day: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,940 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,050 - 3,220 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [11] - Market situation: In the medium term, prices are determined by supply - demand. Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the traditional peak season. Supply capacity is still excessive, and recent output has declined. Rebar inventory is higher than last year. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to rebar [11][12] - Strategy: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change. Investors can consider shorting at high levels during rebounds and pay attention to position management [12] Iron Ore - Previous trading day: Iron ore futures corrected significantly. The spot price of PB fines was 778 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special fines was 700 yuan/ton [14] - Market situation: National pig iron production supports demand. Supply has increased since the second quarter, but imports and domestic production are still down year - on - year. Port inventory is lower than last year. In the short term, supply - demand supports prices, but may weaken in the medium term [14] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [14] Coking Coal and Coke - Previous trading day: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. Coking coal supply pressure is not significant, and demand shows some improvement. Coke prices have been adjusted, and the first - round increase is gradually taking effect [16][17] - Market situation: Coking coal production is normal, and demand for replenishment exists. Coke production and demand are relatively stable [16][17] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [17] Ferroalloys - Previous trading day: The manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.14% to 5,738 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.44% to 5,378 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined [19] - Market situation: Manganese ore shipments from Gabon decreased, and Australian ore supply increased. Port manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and prices stabilized at a low level. Ferroalloy production costs increased, but demand was weak, and supply was excessive in the short term [19][20] - Strategy: In the short term, supply may remain excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [20] Crude Oil - Previous trading day: INE crude oil oscillated downward due to the expected signing of a Middle - East peace agreement [21] - Market situation: CFTC data shows that US fund managers are bearish on crude oil. US oil and gas rig counts decreased. The Russia - Ukraine war continues to support prices, but the expected peace agreement in the Middle East is negative for prices [21][22] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the main crude oil contract [23] Fuel Oil - Previous trading day: Fuel oil oscillated downward following crude oil. The spot spreads of Asian ultra - low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils declined. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is high, and there is a shortage of medium - sulfur fuel oil [24] - Market situation: The Russia - Ukraine war supports prices, but the easing of Middle - East geopolitical risks leads to a decline in crude oil and fuel oil [24] - Strategy: Expand the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils for the main fuel oil contract [25] Synthetic Rubber - Previous trading day: The synthetic rubber main contract fell 1.42%. The mainstream price in Shandong decreased to 11,000 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [26] - Market situation: The raw material side is bearish, and private supply is expected to increase. The utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity is high, demand is better than expected, and inventory shows different trends [26] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate [27] Natural Rubber - Previous trading day: The main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber fell 0.97% and 0.79% respectively. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14,300 yuan/ton, and the basis widened [28] - Market situation: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment is bearish. Supply disturbances have slowed down, and demand from tire factories has decreased during the holiday. After the holiday, supply disturbances are uncertain, and demand may recover [28] - Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] PVC - Previous trading day: The PVC main contract fell 0.43%. Spot prices decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [30] - Market situation: The oversupply situation persists, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, focus on exports and supply reduction. Supply capacity utilization decreased, demand from downstream industries was weak, and inventory increased [30] - Strategy: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [30] Urea - Previous trading day: The urea main contract fell 0.50%. The price in Shandong Linyi was stable at 1,520 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [31] - Market situation: After the holiday, focus on exports and cost changes. Supply has increased, and demand from downstream products has fluctuated slightly. Inventory is higher than expected [31] - Strategy: The downward space is limited [32] PX - Previous trading day: The PX main contract fell 1.58%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 220 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 US dollars/ton [33] - Market situation: PX load increased, and some devices are under maintenance. Imports increased in August. In the short term, supply - demand is looser, and the cost side is weak, but the PXN spread is relatively strong [33] - Strategy: PX may adjust weakly in the short term. Pay attention to position management, external crude oil changes, and macro - policy changes [33] PTA - Previous trading day: The PTA2601 main contract fell 1.6%. Supply decreased due to some device shutdowns, and demand increased as polyester load rose. Processing fees were under pressure [34][35] - Market situation: In the short term, processing fees may improve, and inventory is low, but demand improvement is limited, and external crude oil prices are weak [35] - Strategy: PTA may oscillate. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [35] Ethylene Glycol - Previous trading day: The ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.24%. Supply increased as some devices restarted, and inventory increased. Demand improvement was limited, and the cost of crude oil was weak [36] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Pay attention to port inventory and import changes [36] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Short Fibers - Previous trading day: The short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 1.24%. Supply was at a relatively high level, and demand improved slightly. Cost support was weak [37][38] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [38] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Bottle Chips - Previous trading day: The bottle - chip 2512 main contract fell 1.17%. Supply increased, and demand from the downstream soft - drink industry decreased slightly, but exports remained high [39] - Market situation: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to risk control [39] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control [39] Lithium Carbonate - Previous trading day: The main contract rose 0.5% to 72,680 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. Inventory is gradually decreasing but remains high [40] - Market situation: In the short term, it may return to a supply - surplus situation, and prices may weaken. Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [40][41] - Strategy: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [41] Copper - Previous trading day: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low due to uncertainties in US tariffs on China. The spot price increased, but downstream buying was weak [43] - Market situation: The closure of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. Goldman Sachs' price forecast is lower than expected. Sino - US negotiations bring uncertainties [43] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the Shanghai copper main contract [44] Tin - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.76% to 280,000 yuan/ton. The supply from the mine end is tight, and demand shows some resilience. Inventory is decreasing [45] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] Nickel - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.17% to 120,870 yuan/ton. Concerns about supply resurfaced, but the price of high - grade nickel ore is supported. Stainless - steel consumption is weak, and inventory is relatively high [48] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Previous trading day: The main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil fell 1.16% and 0.51% respectively. The spot prices were stable. US and Brazilian soybean production is progressing smoothly, and there are concerns about US soybean exports [50] - Market situation: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the profit of oil mills has declined. Demand for soybean meal may increase slightly, and soybean oil consumption is under pressure [50][51] - Strategy: Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal call options after adjustment. Temporarily hold off on trading soybean oil [51] Palm Oil - Previous trading day: Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive day. Inventory in September increased, and exports in October showed an increase. Chinese imports increased in August, and inventory is at a medium level [52] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Previous trading day: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has purchased a large amount of Australian rapeseed. Domestic imports of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil increased in August. Inventory is at different levels [54][55] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] Cotton - Previous trading day: Domestic cotton oscillated, and the outer - market cotton rebounded. US cotton production is expected to increase, and there are concerns about Sino - US trade frictions. Domestic cotton production is expected to increase significantly [57][58] - Market situation: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure. The domestic - foreign price difference is large, and there is hedging pressure [58] - Strategy: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure [59] Sugar - Previous trading day: Zhengzhou sugar fell to a new low, and the outer - market sugar rebounded. Brazilian sugar production increased in September, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the new season. Chinese imports increased [60] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The short - term price may have support [61][62] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [62] Apples - Previous trading day: Domestic apple futures fell slightly. Early - maturing apples had different price trends, and late - maturing apples are about to be listed. The national apple production is expected to increase slightly [63] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The opening price of late - maturing apples is likely to be higher than last year [63][64] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [64] Live Pigs - Previous trading day: The national average price of live pigs rose to 10.89 yuan/kg. The supply in the north has increased, and the price has stabilized and rebounded. The supply in the south has increased, and the price is stable. The inventory of sows has decreased slightly [65] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] Eggs - Previous trading day: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was stable, and that in the main sales areas decreased slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory of laying hens is at a high level. The consumption after the holiday is weak [67] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] Corn and Corn Starch - Previous trading day: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. US corn harvesting is progressing smoothly. Domestic demand for corn is slightly increasing, and the inventory of corn starch is at a high level [69][70] - Market situation: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71] - Strategy: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71]