Core Insights - The recent increase in China's gold reserves and Russia's issuance of RMB-denominated sovereign bonds signal a shift in global currency dynamics, potentially impacting the international status of the US dollar [1][3][5] Group 1: US Strategic Shift - The US is refocusing its strategic priorities towards the Western Hemisphere, emphasizing "America First" and requiring allies to take on more defense responsibilities [3][5] - This strategy reflects a combination of resource concentration in areas with higher returns while maintaining influence through maritime routes and financial sanctions [3][5] - The US acknowledges China as a near-peer competitor while aiming to avoid direct conflict, allowing for strategic flexibility [3][5] Group 2: China's Gold Reserve Strategy - China's official gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces by November 2025, increasing by 30,000 ounces, continuing a trend of accumulation since late 2024 [5][7] - This strategy aims to reduce reliance on dollar-denominated assets and enhance the role of gold as a stable reserve asset, thereby managing market expectations [7][9] - The consistent disclosure of reserve data helps anchor market expectations and supports a pricing structure that enhances China's influence in global markets [7][9] Group 3: Russia's RMB Sovereign Bonds - Russia's issuance of RMB-denominated sovereign bonds, totaling 20 billion yuan, marks a significant shift in financing channels from traditional dollar or euro systems to the RMB [9][11] - This move is expected to attract entities holding RMB into a sovereign-backed asset pool, enhancing the credibility and appeal of RMB assets [9][11] Group 4: Challenges to the Dollar - The dollar's strength is rooted in its clearing network and legal protections, but the increasing use of RMB in commodity transactions poses a long-term challenge [11][13] - A decline in the dollar's transaction frequency could lead to higher costs for maintaining global capital inflows, complicating the US's financial position [11][13] - The diminishing effectiveness of economic sanctions as alternative financing channels develop could further weaken the dollar's dominance [11][13] Group 5: Future of Currency Dynamics - The transition towards a more fragmented currency landscape suggests that the dollar's singular dominance is shifting towards a multi-currency system [16][18] - For businesses and investors, diversifying currency exposure and incorporating risk variables into financial models will be crucial in navigating this evolving landscape [16][18] - The internationalization of the RMB hinges on establishing a robust framework for accessible, holdable, hedged, and exit-capable assets [18]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-08 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《价格传导扭曲制约企业利润修复， 非制造业景气度收缩》 - 2025.12.1 宏观研究 全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量篇 核心观点 全球流动性表示为国际金融市场上的融资难易程度。全球流动性 的测度可以从数量和价格两个维度测算。英国金融学家迈克尔·J·豪 厄尔在《资本战争：全球流动性的涨潮》一书中强调，"经济周期是 由资金流-储蓄和信贷的数量驱动的"，强调流动性数量维度的重要 性。本篇报告着重从数量维度测算全球流动性，并判断当前全球流动 性处于什么水平。 全球流动性呈现新特征：发达经济体是全球流动性的主导，但主 导性有所弱化；新兴经济体影响力有所提升，特别是中国对全球流动 性的影响力正在显著提升，成为推动全球流动性结构转型的关键力 量，这背后反映了中国经济崛起，人民币与美元、欧元、日元、英镑 的博弈日 ...

数字人民币的推广对金融普惠具有重要意义。对于偏远地区居民、老年人等群体，数字人民币提供了更便捷的金融服务渠道。 通过智能合约功能，数字人民币还能实现定向支付、条件支付等创新应用，在财政补贴、消费券发放等领域展现出独特价值。 在跨境支付方面，数字人民币也有望为人民币国际化提供新的技术支撑。 从试点情况来看，数字人民币的接受度正在逐步提高。各大银行纷纷推出数字人民币钱包，商户受理环境持续改善。用户可以 通过数字人民币APP轻松开立钱包，并支持绑定银行账户进行充值。部分试点地区还推出了数字人民币红包活动，让用户体验 这种新型支付方式的便利。 展望未来，数字人民币的发展将是一个渐进的过程。它不会取代现有支付工具，而是形成有益补充，共同构建多元化的支付体 系。随着技术不断成熟和应用场景持续拓展，数字人民币有望在促进金融创新、提升支付效率、保障金融安全等方面发挥更大 作用，为数字经济时代提供更加优质的金融服务。作为普通用户，不妨尝试使用数字人民币，感受数字金融带来的新体验。 随着数字人民币试点范围逐步扩大，越来越多的人开始接触这种新型支付方式。作为一种由国家信用背书的数字法定货币，数 字人民币正在悄然改变我们的支付习惯。 ...

Group 1 - The global financial landscape is undergoing significant changes, with a shift from a dollar-dominated system to a multi-currency coexistence model [19][22] - The U.S. is adopting a "retrenchment and control" strategy, focusing on domestic issues while managing external influences through financial means [3][10] - China's gold reserves have increased to 74.12 million ounces, reflecting a trend to reduce reliance on the dollar and enhance risk management capabilities [5][12] Group 2 - Russia has issued sovereign bonds denominated in RMB, signaling a shift in financing channels from USD and EUR to RMB, which enhances the latter's status [7][12] - The use of RMB in commodity trading and sovereign financing is increasing, indicating a gradual erosion of the dollar's monopoly [14][17] - The effectiveness of U.S. financial sanctions is diminishing, prompting countries to seek alternative options to avoid dependency on the dollar [15][20] Group 3 - The internationalization of the RMB faces challenges, including the need for improved supply of risk-free assets and greater market transparency [15][17] - The transition to a multi-currency system is seen as an irreversible trend, providing countries with more options and reducing risks associated with dollar dependency [10][19] - The current geopolitical landscape suggests that there are no absolute winners, only participants who continuously adjust their strategies [22]

文：奇史怪谈 编辑：奇史怪谈 12月3日那天，在岸人民币对美元稳稳站在7.05，比4月最低点涨了快5%，离岸人民币还摸到了7.065， 这可是一年多来的最高位。 更有意思的是，这次不是跟着美元跌才涨的，11月美元指数还在往上晃，人民币却逆势走强，三大汇率 指数都刷新了4月以来的高点，这势头确实有点猛。 不少人都在问，人民币能涨到6吗？咱们是不是要迎来强人民币时代了？ 人民币升值的三大推手 要搞懂这波升值，得先看三个关键原因，最直接的是关税压力小了。 之前特朗普给中国加关税，平均20%还不够，又额外加30%，快到50%的税让对美出口扛不住，10月对 美出口同比降了25.2%。 后来在马来西亚谈了谈，美国取消了10%的税，出口松了口气。 接着釜山峰会后，中美又签了贸易协议，中国答应11到12月买1200万吨美国大豆，未来三年每年至少买 2500万吨。 咱们这边说到做到，就算美国大豆贵也买了，美国那边也跟着给中国降息。 而且国内企业也在往外走，在中东、东南亚、欧洲建厂，但母公司、核心原料和设备还在国内，海外工 厂赚的美元会不断流回来。 这步棋走得挺远，以后就算货物出口增速慢了，靠服务贸易和金融系统也能赚美元，汇率稳 ...

Core Insights - The Southern Finance Forum 2025 Annual Conference emphasizes the theme "The Power of Consensus - Innovation Surges, China's Asset Revaluation" [1] - Standard Chartered Bank's CEO for the Greater Bay Area, Li Haiqiang, discusses the trends and challenges faced by Chinese enterprises going global, highlighting the importance of financial innovation in supporting these efforts [1][2] Group 1: Trends in Chinese Enterprises Going Global - Chinese enterprises are increasingly pursuing internationalization as a necessary path for large companies and a survival strategy for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - The trend of Chinese companies going global has evolved from "going out" to "integrating in," indicating a deeper commitment to local markets [1] - The "new three items" have become significant forces in the global supply chain, with many Chinese companies emerging as industry leaders [1] Group 2: Financial Challenges and Innovations - Chinese enterprises face challenges in cross-border finance, including capital management, financing, supply chain coordination, currency settlement, and exchange rate risks [2] - Standard Chartered Bank has established a new economy business team to provide comprehensive services to support these enterprises since 2016, exemplified by its partnership with autonomous driving leader Pony.ai [2] - The bank has also innovated in cross-border RMB business to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements and Support - Standard Chartered Bank is investing in technology-driven financial innovation, including artificial intelligence and digital assets, and is establishing an AI research center in Guangzhou [3] - The bank has formed strategic partnerships with leading Chinese tech companies to better support Chinese enterprises going global [3] - The Greater Bay Area is positioned as a vibrant cross-border financial ecosystem, leveraging its geographical advantages and technological strengths to provide efficient global financial support [3] Group 4: Role of Standard Chartered Bank - As an international bank with over 160 years of experience in the Greater Bay Area, Standard Chartered Bank aims to act as a "super connector" between the region and the world, facilitating cross-border financial innovation [4]

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion by the end of November 2025, marking a slight increase of $3 billion from the end of October, with a growth rate of 0.09% [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7,412 million ounces, adding 30,000 ounces in November, continuing a trend of 13 consecutive months of gold accumulation [1][5] Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, supported by stable economic performance and macroeconomic factors [3][4] - The increase in reserves is attributed to fluctuations in asset prices and cross-border capital flows, reflecting the resilience of China's international balance of payments [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the stable foreign exchange reserves provide crucial support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate and act as a buffer against external shocks [4] Gold Reserves - The continuous increase in gold reserves highlights a strategic shift towards diversifying reserve assets and reducing reliance on single sovereign credit currencies, particularly the US dollar [5][6] - The accumulation of gold is seen as a response to global geopolitical uncertainties and a strategy to enhance the long-term credibility of RMB assets [5][6] - The global trend of central banks purchasing gold continues, with a significant increase in demand noted in October, which may support rising international gold prices [7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the People's Bank of China will continue to increase its gold reserves as part of a broader strategy to optimize international reserves and support RMB internationalization [8] - Forecasts for gold prices suggest a target range of $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by expectations of monetary easing and shifts in global credit dynamics [8]

Core Insights - Russia officially issued state bonds denominated in RMB on December 2, marking a significant financial event in Sino-Russian relations and a rare fissure in the dollar-dominated financial system [1][3] Group 1: Reasons for the Shift - The timing of this decision is clear: Russia has been excluded from the dollar system and is now reliant on the RMB due to sanctions imposed by the US and Europe following the Ukraine conflict, which included freezing foreign exchange and banning dollar settlements [3] - The international acceptance of the ruble has sharply declined, while the euro is also becoming increasingly difficult to use, leaving the RMB as the only major currency available for global transactions without US interference [3] Group 2: Financial Dynamics - Russia has accumulated a significant amount of RMB as it sells more commodities to China than it buys, leading to a situation where Chinese funds are becoming a crucial pillar of Russia's national finances, previously dominated by the dollar [5] - During Putin's visit to India on December 4, a key agenda was to promote the use of RMB for purchasing Russian energy, indicating a trend towards RMB becoming a regional energy currency [7] Group 3: Global Implications - The world is surprised not only by Russia's actions but also by China's willingness to embrace this shift, as there is a growing need for a second currency option amid the visible issues with the dollar, such as high deficits and frequent sanctions [8] - China is not provoking but is steadily making the RMB more usable, with an increasing number of countries borrowing in RMB, more energy transactions being settled in RMB, and more central banks holding RMB assets, indicating a real establishment of a parallel financial system [8] - The issuance of RMB-denominated bonds by Russia signals that the dollar system is facing competition that could replace some of its functions, particularly in key areas like energy, trade, and debt [8]

Core Viewpoint - China is increasing its gold reserves while reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds, signaling a shift in its financial strategy amidst global economic uncertainties and the declining credibility of the US dollar [3][10][25]. Group 1: China's Gold Reserves - On December 7, the People's Bank of China announced its latest gold reserve data, revealing a total of approximately 21,013 tons, marking 13 consecutive months of increases [6][10]. - The continuous accumulation of gold is seen as a strategic move to diversify foreign reserves and enhance financial security, especially as the US faces a debt crisis [10][12]. - China's gold purchases are occurring despite rising international gold prices, indicating a commitment to strengthening its financial position [10][12]. Group 2: US Debt and Financial Stability - The US national debt surpassed $38 trillion in October, with interest payments nearing 20% of the federal budget, raising concerns about the safety of US Treasury bonds [6][8]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have failed to restore market confidence, further damaging the dollar's credibility [8][14]. - There is widespread speculation that Trump's upcoming visit to China may involve requests for China to support US debt, but China's actions suggest a reluctance to comply [8][25]. Group 3: Global Financial Trends - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.32%, the lowest in 30 years, indicating a decline in its dominance [14][20]. - Emerging economies, including India and Saudi Arabia, are increasingly diversifying their reserves away from the dollar, with significant increases in gold repatriation and local currency settlements [14][16]. - The trend towards de-dollarization is evident as countries seek to establish a multi-polar financial system, reducing reliance on the US dollar [20][23]. Group 4: China's Financial Strategy - China is actively promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, with significant increases in the use of the currency for trade settlements, particularly in commodities like iron ore and oil [18][20]. - The growth of China's gold reserves is part of a broader strategy to enhance its influence in global finance and provide a financial safety net for neighboring countries [20][27]. - The recent surge in demand for Chinese sovereign bonds, with a subscription rate of 30 times for a $4 billion issuance, reflects growing confidence in China's financial stability compared to the US [23][25].

哈喽，大家好，小圆今天想跟大伙聊聊最近的一个热门话题，人民币汇率，12月3日，在岸人民币对美 元汇率稳定在7.05区间，较4月低点累计升值近5%，离岸人民币更是触及7.065的逾一年高位。 更值得关注的是，11月美元指数明明在震荡上行，人民币却逆势走强，三大人民币汇率指数同步刷新4 月以来高点，这种逆势突围的表现让不少人好奇：人民币会一路涨吗？咱们真的要迎来真正的强货币时 代了？要弄明白这些问题，得先从这次升值的底气说起。 人民币升值的底气何在？ 这次人民币的强势并非偶然，而是内外多重积极因素共振的结果，从外部来看，美联储的降息预期给人 民币创造了有利环境，近期美国非农失业率数据超预期，就业市场不如以往强劲，市场对美联储未来降 息的预期不断升温。 今年以来A股表现强劲，吸引了大量外资流入，直接增加了对人民币的需求，正如专家所说，本轮升值 是市场与政策协同作用的结果，央行通过中间价引导释放稳定信号，企业集中结汇进一步放大了升值动 力，这些因素叠加在一起，让人民币的强势显得顺理成章。 产业优势给出答案 看到人民币升值，可能有朋友会问，这会不会像以前那样冲击出口？毕竟很多人印象里，咱们的出口靠 的是价格优势，这种担 ...