Core Insights - The offshore RMB bond market is steadily entering a phase of high-quality development, with the dim sum bond market expected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan in 2024 and reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025, significantly up from approximately 250 billion yuan in 2021 [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Structure - The RMB offshore bond market has achieved both quantitative and qualitative growth, transitioning from a "marginal market" to a main channel for global financing [2] - The supply structure of dim sum bonds has been optimized, with local governments and leading enterprises now participating alongside central banks and financial institutions, enhancing the market ecosystem [2] - City investment enterprises became a major issuance force in 2023-2024, accounting for 28.3% of the issuance, but are expected to see a significant decline in 2025 due to stricter local debt policies [2][3] Group 2: Innovation and Product Development - Recent innovations in the dim sum bond market include breakthroughs in term structure and product design, with the Ministry of Finance increasing the issuance of offshore RMB government bonds [4] - The issuance of green offshore RMB bonds has attracted significant interest from international investors, indicating a growing trend towards sustainable finance [4] Group 3: Buyer Dynamics and Market Participation - The "buying power" in the dim sum bond market is expanding, with the inclusion of non-bank institutions such as securities firms and fund management companies, enhancing market liquidity and trading activity [5] - The low offshore RMB interest rates and the growing pool of RMB deposits in Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore provide a solid foundation for demand expansion [5][6] Group 4: Internationalization of RMB - Dim sum bonds are becoming a crucial engine for RMB internationalization, providing a stable channel for RMB asset allocation and enhancing the currency's role as a medium of exchange [7] - The ongoing expansion of the dim sum bond market is facilitating the evolution of RMB from a trade settlement currency to an investment and reserve currency [7] Group 5: Challenges and Bottlenecks - Despite the strong growth of the dim sum bond market, challenges remain, including the need for improved investor structure, enhanced secondary market liquidity, and further product innovation [8]

Core Insights - The offshore RMB bond market is steadily entering a phase of high-quality development, with the dim sum bond market expected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan in 2024 and further rise to 1.5 trillion yuan by September 2025, representing several times growth compared to approximately 250 billion yuan in 2021 [1] Group 1 - The growth in market size and the optimization of issuing entities and product structures indicate that dim sum bonds are becoming a significant engine for the internationalization of the RMB [1] - The development of the dim sum bond market is contributing to the establishment of a "new closed loop" for cross-border investment and financing in RMB [1] - This growth is facilitating the allocation and circulation of RMB assets on a global scale [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB bond market is entering a high-quality development phase, with the dim sum bond market expected to grow significantly, becoming a key engine for RMB internationalization and creating a new closed loop for cross-border investment and financing [2][8]. Market Growth and Structure Optimization - The dim sum bond market is projected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan in 2024 and reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025, a substantial increase from approximately 250 billion yuan in 2021 [2]. - The market has evolved from being dominated by central banks and financial institutions to including local governments and leading enterprises, indicating a more diversified issuance structure [3]. - City investment enterprises became a major issuer in 2023-2024, with an issuance scale nearing 200 billion yuan, accounting for 28.3% of the total, although this is expected to decline significantly in 2025 due to stricter local debt policies [3][4]. Innovation and Product Development - Recent innovations in the dim sum bond market include the issuance of green offshore RMB bonds and longer-term bonds, enhancing the product variety and maturity structure [5]. - The Ministry of Finance has increased the issuance of offshore RMB government bonds, with international investors showing strong interest in new products [5]. Buyer Dynamics and Market Liquidity - The expansion of the "Southbound Trading" program has introduced non-bank institutions, such as securities firms and fund management companies, increasing market liquidity and trading activity [6]. - The low offshore RMB interest rates, currently around 1.9%, have made dim sum bonds more attractive compared to USD bonds, stimulating investment demand [6][7]. Internationalization and Future Prospects - The development of the dim sum bond market is crucial for the internationalization of the RMB, providing a stable asset allocation channel for investors and enhancing the currency's role as a medium of exchange [8]. - Despite strong growth, challenges remain, including the need for improved investor structure, enhanced secondary market liquidity, and further product innovation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The international monetary system is undergoing significant changes, with increasing skepticism about the dollar's safe-haven status and a shift towards a more diversified cross-border payment system [1][5]. Group 1: International Monetary System Changes - Barry Eichengreen emphasizes that the international monetary system will continue to evolve, moving towards a more digital direction [1]. - The dollar's status as a safe haven is being questioned due to U.S. government actions, potentially accelerating the process of "de-dollarization" [1][5]. - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from over 70% at the beginning of the century to just below 60% currently [4]. Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve and Inflation - Eichengreen notes that the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to maintain low and stable inflation and high employment, with current inflation at 2.9% year-on-year as of August [2]. - Concerns are raised about the potential for inflation to remain above 2%, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its interest rate policies [2][3]. Group 3: Impact of Government Policies - The independence of the Federal Reserve is deemed crucial, with current government actions posing risks to price stability and the dollar's safe-haven status [3]. - The volatility in the U.S. Treasury market is attributed to government policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs, which have led to a significant increase in bond yields [3]. Group 4: Cryptocurrency and Digital Payments - Eichengreen discusses the varying impacts of cryptocurrencies on the international monetary system, noting that stablecoins may play a role in future cross-border payments [6]. - The development of a robust regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is considered essential to mitigate risks associated with unregulated markets [7]. Group 5: Renminbi Internationalization - The approach taken by Chinese authorities to promote the internationalization of the renminbi is viewed as correct, focusing initially on cross-border trade settlements and building a global clearing system [8]. - Future efforts should continue to be cautious and patient, as the internationalization of the renminbi is a gradual process [8].

Core Viewpoint - The international monetary system is undergoing significant changes, with increasing skepticism about the dollar's safe-haven status and a shift towards a more diversified cross-border payment system [1][8]. Group 1: International Monetary System Changes - Barry Eichengreen emphasizes that the international monetary system will continue to evolve towards a more digital direction [1]. - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from slightly over 70% at the beginning of the century to just below 60% currently, indicating a gradual trend of "de-dollarization" [7]. - Eichengreen expresses concerns that U.S. government actions may undermine the dollar's status as a safe haven, potentially accelerating the de-dollarization process [1][8]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Policy and Inflation - Eichengreen notes that the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to maintain low and stable inflation and high employment, with current inflation levels above the 2% target [3]. - He raises doubts about the effectiveness of the Fed's anticipated interest rate cuts, suggesting that inflation may remain above 2% due to ongoing tariff policies [4]. - The recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury market is attributed to government policies that have led to a weaker dollar and increased yields [6]. Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Digital Payments - Eichengreen categorizes cryptocurrencies into unstable types like Bitcoin, which do not significantly impact the international financial system, and stablecoins, which may face regulatory challenges [9]. - He highlights ongoing initiatives to digitize payment systems, such as the collaboration between SWIFT and banks to test tokenized deposits and the development of cross-border payment systems in Southeast Asia [9]. - A robust regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is deemed essential to prevent misuse and ensure stability in the financial system [10]. Group 4: Renminbi Internationalization - Eichengreen supports the cautious advancement of Renminbi internationalization, focusing initially on cross-border trade settlements and establishing a global clearing system [11]. - He advises that the Chinese authorities should continue to promote the use of Renminbi in international contexts while maintaining patience, as this process is not instantaneous [11].

Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for an average annual GDP growth of over 4.5% to achieve a per capita GDP exceeding $20,000 by 2035, indicating a focus on both qualitative and quantitative growth [3] - The emphasis on "building a modern industrial system" and "accelerating high-level technological self-reliance" highlights the deepening of China's innovation-driven development strategy [4] - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is crucial, with a focus on enhancing the productive service industry, which currently accounts for just over 30% of GDP, compared to 47.5% in the U.S. [4] Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion - The central government has shifted its macroeconomic policy focus towards boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency, marking a significant policy transition [5] - The relationship between consumption and investment is emphasized as a necessary balance, with the aim of creating a virtuous cycle that stimulates economic growth [5][6] - The government is promoting effective investment and consumption through measures such as tax reforms to incentivize local governments to boost consumption [6] Group 3: International Trade and Currency Policy - The plan includes expanding high-level openness and enhancing cooperation, with China's foreign direct investment (FDI) and outward direct investment (ODI) entering a dual investment phase [7] - The diversification of trade partners is evident, with the share of exports to the top three trading partners decreasing from 50.8% in 2019 to 45.5% in 2024, while exports to Belt and Road countries have increased to 47% [7] - The use of the renminbi for international settlements has reached 30% in trade, with some regions like Guangdong exceeding 50%, indicating a trend towards currency internationalization [7][8]

美国财政部宣布，制裁不仅仅包括俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司，还包括其在俄罗斯的所有子公司以及持股超过50%的相关实体。俄罗斯石油公司是全球 第二大石油生产商，这意味着俄罗斯的四大石油巨头已全部被美国列入黑名单。财政部长贝森特指出，这一措施旨在"削弱克里姆林宫的资金来源"，并暗示 未来可能会有更多制裁措施。 与此同时，欧盟也启动了第19轮制裁，提前将俄罗斯液化天然气进口禁令推至2027年，并加大了对俄外交官活动的限制。这一系列突然出台的制裁措施，不 仅让全球能源市场出现剧烈波动，也使中国成为地缘政治博弈中的焦点。 俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司控制着俄罗斯近一半的原油出口量，其业务覆盖从勘探、生产到运输的全链条。根据彭博社的数据显示，2024年这两家公司 将占俄罗斯原油总产量的63%，而出口收入占俄联邦预算的24%。美国的制裁包括冻结在美国的资产，禁止美国企业和个人与这些公司进行交易，还威胁要 对任何"协助俄罗斯军事工业"的外国金融机构实施二级制裁。意味着全球与这两家企业有业务往来的机构，包括印度炼油厂和中国银行，都可能面临法律风 险。 and STREETS Particolor 8 12 fi g - 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The RMB Tracker report by SWIFT indicates that the renminbi (RMB) has become the fifth most active global payment currency as of September 2025, with a share of 3.17%, reflecting a 15.53% increase in payment amounts compared to August 2025 [1] Group 1: RMB Internationalization Progress - The RMB's global payment currency ranking fluctuates between fourth and sixth place this year, with a decline from a peak of 4.74% in July 2022 to 3.17% in September 2025 [1] - The internationalization of the RMB is a long-term process and cannot be achieved overnight, as indicated by market experts [1] Group 2: Limitations of SWIFT's Data - SWIFT's statistics are limited to payment messages among its member institutions, which does not include domestic RMB transactions within China, leading to an underestimation of the RMB's international usage [2][3] - The majority of cross-border RMB transactions are conducted through the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which is also excluded from SWIFT's statistics [3] Group 3: Impact of Market Conditions - The decline in the RMB's share in SWIFT's rankings from April to August 2025 is attributed to reduced offshore RMB foreign exchange trading due to low volatility in the RMB exchange rate, which led to decreased trading activity [5] - The RMB's share in SWIFT's rankings showed a slight recovery in September compared to August, despite the overall downward trend since its peak [4] Group 4: Multi-Dimensional Measurement of Currency Internationalization - The internationalization of a currency encompasses various dimensions beyond payment functionality, including valuation, investment, and reserve functions [6] - As of mid-2025, foreign entities held RMB-denominated financial assets totaling 10.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [6] - The RMB's share in the foreign exchange market has increased to 8.5% as of April 2025, up from 7% in 2022, ranking fifth among global currencies [7]

如今人民币作为全球排名前五的货币，与位居第四的英镑正在不断缩小差距。目前，其全球日交易量已 攀升至8170亿美元，在全球交易中的占比提升逾8个百分点。 持续对中国实施打压的美国，其豆农协会竟也表态，愿意采用人民币进行结算。这一转变，既出人意 料，又凸显出经济利益考量下的现实选择。 印度与俄罗斯在石油交易领域持续深化对接，且交易结算方式正逐步向人民币倾斜，双方不断推进以人 民币进行石油交易，展现出贸易结算格局的新动态。 这些种种现象表明，去美元化在不断的进行中，而人民币却在世界贸易中不断地发展壮大。即便最新消 息特朗普开始制裁俄油，很多中印企业出现了暂停采购俄油，但这种情况依旧改变不了中国人民币在不 断发展的道路。 美国的制裁只是暂时的，未来货币多元化必将取代美元的霸权地位。此前 俄印石油结算突然改用人民 币，全程未参与谈判的中国为何成最大赢家？答案藏在十年未雨绸缪的布局里。 国际财经圈近期热议一桩关键变局：俄罗斯与印度的石油交易结算货币，出现了超出市场预期的转向。 更值得关注的是，这场双边谈判的"局外人"中国，反倒成为变局中收益最显著的一方，这背后的逻辑并 非偶然。 变局的信号源自路透社近日披露的11则独家消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant confrontation between a Chinese company, Anshi Semiconductor, and the Dutch government, highlighting the resilience of Chinese enterprises in the face of geopolitical pressures and the implications for global supply chains in the semiconductor industry [1][5][10]. Group 1: Company Response - Anshi Semiconductor, after the Dutch government's takeover, declared its independence and shifted all transactions from USD to RMB, showcasing its strategic maneuvering in the semiconductor market [3][7]. - The company issued a letter to clients and employees, emphasizing the stability of its supply chain and asserting its rights against any illegal directives from the Dutch government [5][8]. - Anshi's actions have led to significant concern among European automakers, as they rely heavily on the company's chips, particularly in the automotive sector [7][8]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The Dutch government's actions were influenced by the United States, which has been wary of China's rise in the semiconductor industry, indicating a broader geopolitical struggle [5][10]. - The situation revealed that the core production capabilities of Anshi are primarily located in China, particularly in Dongguan, which is critical for the assembly and testing of automotive chips [8][10]. - The Dutch government’s realization that it had underestimated the importance of the Chinese operations led to urgent attempts to mitigate the fallout from its actions [10][11]. Group 3: Market Implications - Anshi's decision to reject USD transactions is seen as a significant move towards financial independence from Western systems, potentially influencing other companies to follow suit [7][11]. - The article suggests that if more Chinese companies adopt RMB for transactions, it could challenge the dominance of the USD in global trade [11][13]. - The semiconductor industry is highlighted as a critical battleground, with the article emphasizing that control over core production processes is essential for maintaining influence in the market [8][13].